Value Initiative: Pre-Game Write-Up / Prediction - SA v ORL 11.29.16

[DPG21920]

Now that we are entering the part of the regular season that is beyond the warm-up stage, I thought I would offer up some game day write up's from time-to-time. Obviously with 82 games in a season and me being a vital cog in the company I work for, I can't do this every game. However, on days where I may or may not be doing Game Grades, I thought I would perhaps do this as well (since I have to be a little different than everyone else).

Without further ado and no more guilding the lily, DPG Presents: Value Initiative: Pre-Game Write-Up / Prediction - SA v ORL 11.29.16

Tonight's game between the Spurs and Magic is truly divergent. Orlando has been struggling as of late with a record of 3-7 in their last 10 games. The Spurs are a team on fire in their last 10 with a stellar 9-1 record.

Let's dig into what's happened the last 10 games for each team and how they match up heading into tonight.

If you have watched Orlando at all (and with NBA League Pass I watch everyone - use promo code DPGVALUEINITIATIVE for 20% off) you will see a big reason why they have struggled is lineup shuffling and experimentation.

They have a new coach. They traded for Serge Ibaka and signed Biyombo. On top of that they just aren't a well built team and it really seems like their new coach is just trying to figure out who's a keeper and who fits where.

This has led to some really obvious log-jams, losses and growing pains. Still a young team at it's core, they are relying on Fournier, Payton and Gordon to take the next step. Problem is, with all the shuffling and awkward lineups, it has been very difficult for anyone to have a defined role or do what they do well. Especially Aaron Gordon. He is the poster child for both the potential and frustration for the Magic. They are really trying to figure out who Gordon is while at the same time develop him (similar to Blake Griffin). They are using him in a lot of pick-and-roll with poor results thus far. There is potential in Gordon and the Magic, but there is a lot to figure out for that team.

San Antonio was in a somewhat similar boat to start the season albeit for different reasons. As we all know the Spurs added several new pieces in the off season as well, but it was injury to Danny Green that really threw things off to start the year. Lot's of experimenting with different starting lineups, chemistry issues with Pau/LMA and uneven play from Parker and the bench at times led to a stunning 3 loss-at-home start for San Antonio.

With Danny Green back things have really stabilized including a huge win streak on the road for San Antonio. Kawhi's continued emergence as a legit anchor along with Parker's level of play after a short rest from an injury has really helped as well. Spurs are getting contributions from many different players on any given night; Mills, Bertans, Dedmon, Pau, Lee and even Simmons from time-to-time have all made imprints on this early season. Aldridge has been solid as well and between the starting lineup and the bench, the Spurs are already showing glimpses of just how good they can be.

Despite the rough stretch at home, it feels like that was a symptom of circumstance, both injury and chemistry, that should be mostly worked out at this point.

To the matchup:

Orlando Magic Key Numbers:

PACE: 96.7

OFF EFF: 95.4

DEF EFF: 102.2

TS%: 49%

FG/FT/3PT%: 41% / 72% / 31%

REBR: 50%

TO: 12.6

San Antonio Spurs Key Numbers:

PACE: 95.5

OFF EFF: 109.9

DEF EFF: 102.7

TS%: 57%

FG/FT/3PT%: 46% / 84% / 40%

REBR: 50%

TO: 11.9


So what does it all mean? Long-story long, both San Antonio and Orlando play very slow paces. Both teams take care of the ball. The biggest difference in the two teams is that while the Magic take care of the ball it's because they really don't register many assists. With the mediocre level of talent they have, it's not surprising that they rank dead last in True Shooting Percentage with such little ball moment and so many guys that struggle to shoot (especially from 3PT range).

While the pace should be comfortable for both teams vs each other, the Spurs just flat out move the ball better, are way more efficient (SA ranks basically 3rd in True Shooting Percentage) and have way more talent.

Interestingly enough, Orlando has graded out slightly better than San Antonio defensively. This should not be a total surprise because while Orlando struggles offensively they have a plethora of good defensive, mobile bigs (Gordon, Ibaka & Biyomobo) and competent defensive guards as well (and a coach that is a good defensive coach).

Where the Magic excel defensively is chasing guys off of the 3-point line. Where they struggle is rim protection. It's a little odd that with both Ibaka & Biyombo they would struggle there, but I do believe that evens out some over time as they get lineups set.

San Antonio, beyond the eye ball test, has done really well at defending the rim. This is a team that has tremendous length and with Danny healthy two elite perimeter defenders as well. Spurs haven't struggled to defend the 3 ball, but they have not been great either.

Boiled down, the Spurs minor deficiency at defending the 3 should absolutely not hurt them vs this poor 3PT shooting Orlando team. While San Antonio may struggle to shoot the 3 themselves this game more than usual, if they move the ball and more importantly value the ball they should still be good enough to knock some down.

This seems like a setup for a big game attacking the rim and getting to the line which hopefully opens up the 3. San Antonio not only has to be careful turning the ball over against the great athletes in Orlando, but has to be disciplined on knowing the game plan on close outs.

All-in-all I predict San Antonio wins this game by 10+ and it will be a relatively low-scoring affair compared to each teams season average.

The one wild-card here is Orlando does have Chad Forcier who knows the Spurs very well. From plays that are called to player tendencies, that could be an issue if SA does not execute crisply and does not take care of the ball.

Go Spurs!

[Chinook]

Great write-up man. I'm reading that as the Magic having a worse defense than the Spurs. You'd think higher numbers are worse, no?

[ElNono]

Thanks dude!

[TheDoctor]

Great write-up man and a nice intro for what will be the Game Thread :toast

[DPG21920]

Great write-up man. I'm reading that as the Magic having a worse defense than the Spurs. You'd think higher numbers are worse, no?

Orlando ranks 10th in defensive efficiency at 102.2 while San Antonio ranks 13th at 102.7. It's not a huge gap and SA should improve, but the big difference so far has been ORL defending the 3 point line really, really well.

[jyra]

Nice info. Fournier is the biggest threat for Orlando, I remember him scoring really well against Kawhi last season.

[dabom]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8HDmMOs-N0Y

[DPG21920]

Nice info. Fournier is the biggest threat for Orlando, I remember him scoring really well against Kawhi last season.

Fournier is a talented player but he's just been average this year. Obviously he can go off in any one game but I would imagine Danny is draped all over him or Kawhi will be which should make life difficult for him tonight.

[Chinook]

Orlando ranks 10th in defensive efficiency at 102.2 while San Antonio ranks 13th at 102.7. It's not a huge gap and SA should improve, but the big difference so far has been ORL defending the 3 point line really, really well.

Nah, that was just me not knowing how to read.

[DPG21920]

Nah, that was just me not knowing how to read.

:lol Figured as much. Formatting in longer-form is kind of weird. I will probably tweak it some next time.

[DPG21920]

Also, ya, if people just want to make this the game thread I'm cool with that...might be nice to have this as the game thread so OP can easily be referred back to in case I'm dead wrong.

[pookenstein]

Thanks DPG! Great read going into the game. Appreciate the work you put in. Looking forward for the next one.

:bobo

[HarlemHeat37]

Hopefully Ibaka's dominance over the Spurs doesn't translate to his new team, tbh:lol

[spursistan]

Thanks OP :tu

This would have been worthy post to kick off the Game Thread..a mod here can edit the title to make it official.

[Thunder1]

Great write-up!!..

[SPURt]

So you're saying we have a chance?

Seriously, great read thanks for taking the time to do this!

[024]

Any indication on players resting? It's a b2b but both today and tomorrow's (Dallas) teams are pretty bad.

[DPG21920]

Any indication on players resting? It's a b2b but both today and tomorrow's (Dallas) teams are pretty bad.

Great question actually - Spurs did just recall Forbes, Murray & Lap from Austin so maybe TP/Danny sit tonight?

[Keepin' it real]

Now that we are entering the part of the regular season that is beyond the warm-up stage, I thought I would offer up some game day write up's from time-to-time. Obviously with 82 games in a season and me being a vital cog in the company I work for, I can't do this every game. However, on days where I may or may not be doing Game Grades, I thought I would perhaps do this as well (since I have to be a little different than everyone else).

Without further ado and no more guilding the lily, DPG Presents: Value Initiative: Pre-Game Write-Up / Prediction - SA v ORL 11.29.16

Tonight's game between the Spurs and Magic is truly divergent. Orlando has been struggling as of late with a record of 3-7 in their last 10 games. The Spurs are a team on fire in their last 10 with a stellar 9-1 record.

Let's dig into what's happened the last 10 games for each team and how they match up heading into tonight.

If you have watched Orlando at all (and with NBA League Pass I watch everyone - use promo code DPGVALUEINITIATIVE for 20% off) you will see a big reason why they have struggled is lineup shuffling and experimentation.

They have a new coach. They traded for Serge Ibaka and signed Biyombo. On top of that they just aren't a well built team and it really seems like their new coach is just trying to figure out who's a keeper and who fits where.

This has led to some really obvious log-jams, losses and growing pains. Still a young team at it's core, they are relying on Fournier, Payton and Gordon to take the next step. Problem is, with all the shuffling and awkward lineups, it has been very difficult for anyone to have a defined role or do what they do well. Especially Aaron Gordon. He is the poster child for both the potential and frustration for the Magic. They are really trying to figure out who Gordon is while at the same time develop him (similar to Blake Griffin). They are using him in a lot of pick-and-roll with poor results thus far. There is potential in Gordon and the Magic, but there is a lot to figure out for that team.

San Antonio was in a somewhat similar boat to start the season albeit for different reasons. As we all know the Spurs added several new pieces in the off season as well, but it was injury to Danny Green that really threw things off to start the year. Lot's of experimenting with different starting lineups, chemistry issues with Pau/LMA and uneven play from Parker and the bench at times led to a stunning 3 loss-at-home start for San Antonio.

With Danny Green back things have really stabilized including a huge win streak on the road for San Antonio. Kawhi's continued emergence as a legit anchor along with Parker's level of play after a short rest from an injury has really helped as well. Spurs are getting contributions from many different players on any given night; Mills, Bertans, Dedmon, Pau, Lee and even Simmons from time-to-time have all made imprints on this early season. Aldridge has been solid as well and between the starting lineup and the bench, the Spurs are already showing glimpses of just how good they can be.

Despite the rough stretch at home, it feels like that was a symptom of circumstance, both injury and chemistry, that should be mostly worked out at this point.

To the matchup:

Orlando Magic Key Numbers:

PACE: 96.7

OFF EFF: 95.4

DEF EFF: 102.2

TS%: 49%

FG/FT/3PT%: 41% / 72% / 31%

REBR: 50%

TO: 12.6

San Antonio Spurs Key Numbers:

PACE: 95.5

OFF EFF: 109.9

DEF EFF: 102.7

TS%: 57%

FG/FT/3PT%: 46% / 84% / 40%

REBR: 50%

TO: 11.9


So what does it all mean? Long-story long, both San Antonio and Orlando play very slow paces. Both teams take care of the ball. The biggest difference in the two teams is that while the Magic take care of the ball it's because they really don't register many assists. With the mediocre level of talent they have, it's not surprising that they rank dead last in True Shooting Percentage with such little ball moment and so many guys that struggle to shoot (especially from 3PT range).

While the pace should be comfortable for both teams vs each other, the Spurs just flat out move the ball better, are way more efficient (SA ranks basically 3rd in True Shooting Percentage) and have way more talent.

Interestingly enough, Orlando has graded out slightly better than San Antonio defensively. This should not be a total surprise because while Orlando struggles offensively they have a plethora of good defensive, mobile bigs (Gordon, Ibaka & Biyomobo) and competent defensive guards as well (and a coach that is a good defensive coach).

Where the Magic excel defensively is chasing guys off of the 3-point line. Where they struggle is rim protection. It's a little odd that with both Ibaka & Biyombo they would struggle there, but I do believe that evens out some over time as they get lineups set.

San Antonio, beyond the eye ball test, has done really well at defending the rim. This is a team that has tremendous length and with Danny healthy two elite perimeter defenders as well. Spurs haven't struggled to defend the 3 ball, but they have not been great either.

Boiled down, the Spurs minor deficiency at defending the 3 should absolutely not hurt them vs this poor 3PT shooting Orlando team. While San Antonio may struggle to shoot the 3 themselves this game more than usual, if they move the ball and more importantly value the ball they should still be good enough to knock some down.

This seems like a setup for a big game attacking the rim and getting to the line which hopefully opens up the 3. San Antonio not only has to be careful turning the ball over against the great athletes in Orlando, but has to be disciplined on knowing the game plan on close outs.

All-in-all I predict San Antonio wins this game by 10+ and it will be a relatively low-scoring affair compared to each teams season average.

The one wild-card here is Orlando does have Chad Forcier who knows the Spurs very well. From plays that are called to player tendencies, that could be an issue if SA does not execute crisply and does not take care of the ball.

Go Spurs!


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qu46svpJ5g

[$pursDynasty]

Very good post. Funny to hear the rim protection part because there was a time when Ibaka seemed to intimidate the Spurs to the point they never took shots in the paint. At the time I longed for a similar player but was told there was no way the Thunder would ever let him go. Something magical changed after the CoJo dunk, whatever head game mental edge he had on the Spurs was gone and while we still had issues with the Thunderefs it wasn't because of Ibaka's shot blocking intimidation. Serge has fallen off or the Thunderrefs had a moment and that window closed. A team that consisted of Serge, KD, Russ and Harden that never won much of anything. They will be remembered like the Dan Fouts San Diego (Super)Chargers or those ultra talented but headless horsemen Portland Trailblazer teams. I am hoping the Spurs handle business and dispatch the Magic with a few JSimms posters over the Serge protector just for good measure.

[$pursDynasty]

Great question actually - Spurs did just recall Forbes, Murray & Lap from Austin so maybe TP/Danny sit tonight?
might sit them for the soulless shadow of the Mavericks.

[RD2191]

Tldr trash post

[DPG21920]

Very good post. Funny to hear the rim protection part because there was a time when Ibaka seemed to intimidate the Spurs to the point they never took shots in the paint. At the time I longed for a similar player but was told there was no way the Thunder would ever let him go. Something magical changed after the CoJo dunk, whatever head game mental edge he had on the Spurs was gone and while we still had issues with the Thunderefs it wasn't because of Ibaka's shot blocking intimidation. Serge has fallen off or the Thunderrefs had a moment and that window closed. A team that consisted of Serge, KD, Russ and Harden that never won much of anything. They will be remembered like the Dan Fouts San Diego (Super)Chargers or those ultra talented but headless horsemen Portland Trailblazer teams. I am hoping the Spurs handle business and dispatch the Magic with a few JSimms posters over the Serge protector just for good measure.

Interesting visual that I pulled some info from:

803434183733444610

[$pursDynasty]

wow DPG from that it appears that the Spurs protect the rim well enough but teams like shooting the three on them. Then again it looks like the Dubs are even better at protecting the rim even though the popular thought is that they aren't this year because of losing all of their bigs. Difference between stats and perception I guess.

[dabom]

Tldr trash post

Top poster doing Top poster posts. :tu

[SAGirl]

Thanks for this introduction. I have an interest in Gordon though I don't watch the Magic with regularity at all. I have watched him since college and I am intrigued to see how the experiments with him have turned out... and he's apparently been struggling with role...

I hope Spurs don't come into this with their recent underrating a weak opponent stint. It should be a win...

By the way DPG, I didn't know Spurs had fallen all the way down to 13th in defensive efficiency. /shivers. :wtf

[Hoops Czar]

Orlando ranks 10th in defensive efficiency at 102.2 while San Antonio ranks 13th at 102.7. It's not a huge gap and SA should improve, but the big difference so far has been ORL defending the 3 point line really, really well.

The Spurs are ranked 6th in SOS while Orlando is ranked 30th. It might be another reason why Orlando is slightly ahead of San Antonio defensively.


https://www.espn.com/nba/stats/rpi/_/sort/SOS

[dabom]

The Spurs are ranked 6th in SOS while Orlando is ranked 30th. It might be another reason why Orlando is slightly ahead of San Antonio defensively.


https://www.espn.com/nba/stats/rpi/_/sort/SOS

Something smart. Wow. Who would have thunk it. Props.

[DPG21920]

The Spurs are ranked 6th in SOS while Orlando is ranked 30th. It might be another reason why Orlando is slightly ahead of San Antonio defensively.


https://www.espn.com/nba/stats/rpi/_/sort/SOS

Absoultely - just evaluating where they were at as of today. SA should continue to improve with Danny healthy and the schedule evening out, but that is a really good observation.

I do think ORL has headroom defensively as well though. Easy schedule aside, they have tinkered a ton with things and they should improve on their rim defense.

[DPG21920]

Thanks for this introduction. I have an interest in Gordon though I don't watch the Magic with regularity at all. I have watched him since college and I am intrigued to see how the experiments with him have turned out... and he's apparently been struggling with role...

I hope Spurs don't come into this with their recent underrating a weak opponent stint. It should be a win...

By the way DPG, I didn't know Spurs had fallen all the way down to 13th in defensive efficiency. /shivers. :wtf

I like Gordon too. His problem is his jumper. He actually has an excellent handle for a PF, obviously great athleticism but they are really using him as a PnR player and his shot has struggled mightily with that type of usage/offense. I think they are ok with that as it is part of his development.

I would not worry too much about the defense. SA lost Tim, added Pau and didn't have Danny for a couple of weeks. That right there clouds the numbers. We now have Danny back and see the difference he can make along with Pau/Lee/LMA/Dedmon protecting the paint. Don't forget Dedmon being out recently too and he is the most agile big on the perimeter.

The perimeter is what suffers the most with Danny out and only having 1 Kawhi. With 2 elite perimeter defenders and already excellent rim protection we should see SA's 3PT defense pick up in no time.

[r0drig0lac]

803749370986250240

[TheDoctor]

803749370986250240

#FullSquad tbh

[Ron Swanson]

803749370986250240

About damn time.

[Spur|n|Austin]

Does this count as the game thread?

[dabom]

Does this count as the game thread?

No fucking game time. No.

[DPG21920]

Does this count as the game thread?

Sure - I don't mind. Makes it easy.

Also, I make game threads and players come back healthy. Amused makes game threads and players die :lol

[DPG21920]

One would think, especially with the rough start at home (and the Dallas game) that SA would come out very focused.

[Chinook]

So which one are we using?

[DPG21920]

Use Daboom's he needs the attention very clearly. Been nipping at everyone's heels all day and no one responds so let him have the game thread. It's really not a big deal :lol

[Trill Clinton]

thanks for the write up

[DPG21920]

thanks for the write up

For sure - haven't seen you post too much about SA, how you feeling about the start to the season?

[timtonymanu]

Nice writeup, DPG. Magic aren't a good team so I hope being at home the Spurs don't take them lightly. Spurs performance at home is still odd.

[DPG21920]

Nice writeup, DPG. Magic aren't a good team so I hope being at home the Spurs don't take them lightly. Spurs performance at home is still odd.

It is odd, but I really think it was just a symptom of having some early home games with a lot of new faces and awkward lineups without Danny.

Should be gold now.

[RD2191]

Terrible game thread. Non official game thread imo

[GB20]

Go spurs go!!

[Robz4000]

No idea what to expect tonight. My head tells me Spurs in a blowout but I have a feeling they lose by 7-8. Too many athletes on the Magic.

[DPG21920]

No idea what to expect tonight. My head tells me Spurs in a blowout but I have a feeling they lose by 7-8. Too many athletes on the Magic.

If the Spurs lose something has gone terribly wrong :lol. It would take big time fluke (like scorching hot 3PT shooting from ORL or cold shooting/TO's from SA).

Other than something really fluky shooting wise, I don't see how ORL can win this one. They have athletes like you said, but they play at a snails pace overall so it's not like they have been giving anyone trouble with that.

Unless you turn it over 17+ times or something. If you back on defense reasonably ORL struggles to score.

[GB20]

Stay healthy spurs

[GB20]

Good start!!

[Spur|n|Austin]

Stay healthy spurs

[Robz4000]

If the Spurs lose something has gone terribly wrong :lol. It would take big time fluke (like scorching hot 3PT shooting from ORL or cold shooting/TO's from SA).

Other than something really fluky shooting wise, I don't see how ORL can win this one. They have athletes like you said, but they play at a snails pace overall so it's not like they have been giving anyone trouble with that.

Unless you turn it over 17+ times or something. If you back on defense reasonably ORL struggles to score.

The entire season thus far has been flukey at home for the Spurs, and it doesn't all have to do with terrible lineups or players being out.

[Chinook]

Four players converged on Fourier there. It's just what you do when guys drive.

[Robz4000]

:lol Spurs look awful

[Trill Clinton]

For sure - haven't seen you post too much about SA, how you feeling about the start to the season? i haven't really been locked in this year due to the cowboys being competitive and my schedule, but so far i'm really impressed with the "young" guys, simmons and bertans. i wanted to see kawhi step into the leader role this year and so far the few games i've watched, i've seen him be a lot more vocal on the floor.

[Robz4000]

If the Spurs lose something has gone terribly wrong :lol. It would take big time fluke (like scorching hot 3PT shooting from ORL or cold shooting/TO's from SA).

Other than something really fluky shooting wise, I don't see how ORL can win this one. They have athletes like you said, but they play at a snails pace overall so it's not like they have been giving anyone trouble with that.

Unless you turn it over 17+ times or something. If you back on defense reasonably ORL struggles to score.

Sup Deepstradamus

[DPG21920]

Sup Deepstradamus

Don't you worry :lol

[DPG21920]

i haven't really been locked in this year due to the cowboys being competitive and my schedule, but so far i'm really impressed with the "young" guys, simmons and bertans. i wanted to see kawhi step into the leader role this year and so far the few games i've watched, i've seen him be a lot more vocal on the floor.

I got you. It's interesting you say that about Kawhi. Honestly, I really get the sense the team has no heart. Not in the sense that guys don't compete/play hard I mean that emotional leader that everyone gravitates too. I think Kawhi is a little more vocal but no one on this team seems to be a natural leader.

I wonder if that will ever happen.

[DPG21920]

Analysis.

[Robz4000]

tl;dr this team is fucked

[YGWHI]

Stay healthy spurs

To try to find something positive...At least they still have this.

[ElNono]

All-in-all I predict San Antonio wins this game by 10+ and it will be a relatively low-scoring affair compared to each teams season average.

You probably forgot we were playing at home :lol

It was a good read nonetheless, tbh :tu

[DPG21920]

You probably forgot we were playing at home :lol

It was a good read nonetheless, tbh :tu

Ya - classic DPG.

[GSH]

Ya - classic DPG.


Heh. I was just about to call you out for putting the goocher on this game. :lol

The best analysis in the world won't see a game like this coming.

[DPG21920]

Heh. I was just about to call you out for putting the goocher on this game. :lol

The best analysis in the world won't see a game like this coming.

:lol I'm going to blame it on a dummy game thread by the worst poster on ST