Really interesting article about the Spurs defense and KL

[itzsoweezee]

Kawhi Leonard is so great at defense, he's actually hurting the Spurs http://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/kawhi-leonard-is-so-great-at-defense-hes-actually-hurting-the-spurs/

[alpha_HaZE]

That has already been discussed in another thread. Thanks for posting thought, it's a really good article.

[Robz4000]

Good read. Just all the more reason the Spurs have to move Gasol to the bench; not much they can do about Parker since they don't really have anyone they can start in his place (love Patty but he isn't the answer either).

[spursistan]

Matt MOORE (HPbasketball) might be the most annoying, fanbase-baiting account on NBA twitter, but even I have to admit that's a genuinely thought-provoking article...

Hopefully Pop and coaching stuff have a counter to this move..

[JuneJive]

On the bright side, he can conserve energy for the offense.

[tholdren]

The only thing this article does is give a great example why plus minus stats are re-tar-ded. So KL effectively neutralized the Bulls best player, yet he is advanced statted out? Lol

Ive made this argument for years: Player A - Has all 10 pts 10 assists 12 steals. The man he is defending has 0pts 0 assists 12 Tos. At the end of the qtr Player A's team is down by 1. Player A has a -1 and the man he was defending has a +1.

Dont be an idiot and think that advanced stats are the end all be all. KL is literally a top 3 player in the league and the best perimeter defender in the league. F yo article clown. Probably written by Chinook

[cjw]

The only thing this article does is give a great example why plus minus stats are re-tar-ded. So KL effectively neutralized the Bulls best player, yet he is advanced statted out? Lol

Ive made this argument for years: Player A - Has all 10 pts 10 assists 12 steals. The man he is defending has 0pts 0 assists 12 Tos. At the end of the qtr Player A's team is down by 1. Player A has a -1 and the man he was defending has a +1.

Dont be an idiot and think that advanced stats are the end all be all. KL is literally a top 3 player in the league and the best perimeter defender in the league. F yo article clown. Probably written by Chinook

Agree that advanced stats in a vacuum or with small sample size are misleading. But a few things:

- Counting stats are also limited

- Plus-minus is a counting stat, not an advanced stat.

- The example you give both suffers from small sample size and quoting a counting stat, not an advanced stat. If that same trend were seen over hundreds of minutes, it might be more meaningful. Also, other players you're surrounded with matter and pure +/- doesn't adjust for this. It's very hard to adjust for and basketball stats are admittedly limited. Football is probably worst at measuring individual performance given sample size and noise from situation, while baseball is probably best. Basketball is somewhere in between.

[Russ]

Box and one . . .

[cd021]

Matt MOORE (HPbasketball) might be the most annoying, fanbase-baiting account on NBA twitter, but even I have to admit that's a genuinely thought-provoking article...

Hopefully Pop and coaching stuff have a counter to this move..
I listen to his podcast CBS sports often, he actually has really good takes. Haven't checked out his twitter though...

[cd021]

The only thing this article does is give a great example why plus minus stats are re-tar-ded. So KL effectively neutralized the Bulls best player, yet he is advanced statted out? Lol

Ive made this argument for years: Player A - Has all 10 pts 10 assists 12 steals. The man he is defending has 0pts 0 assists 12 Tos. At the end of the qtr Player A's team is down by 1. Player A has a -1 and the man he was defending has a +1.

Dont be an idiot and think that advanced stats are the end all be all. KL is literally a top 3 player in the league and the best perimeter defender in the league. F yo article clown. Probably written by Chinook


Everyone knows that plus +/- is a flawed stat, for one game at least. Over the course of a season the most impact players tend to rank high in that stat.

Moore's article doesn't refute that KL is a top defensive player, and he also calls he a great offensive player but when KL is guarding someone (like Rudy Gay, Batum, Butler, etc.) they basically stop passing it to those players and go 4 on 4. Parker and Gasol are tire fires on defense and Gasol, Lee, and LMA are rank among the worst in pick and roll defenders on PPP basis.

If Pop were to go with Dedmon at the five with Parker, Green, Leonard, and LMA. That trend should change drastically. This explains why Leonards steals and blocks per game have dipped despite playing more minutes same for his rebounding. If teams are having his man hide out in the corner then he is too far away from the play to grab defensive boards like he did earlier in his career.

[Sean Cagney]

Everyone knows that plus +/- is a flawed stat, for one game at least. Over the course of a season the most impact players tend to rank high in that stat.

Moore's article doesn't refute that KL is a top defensive player, and he also calls he a great offensive player but when KL is guarding someone (like Rudy Gay, Batum, Butler, etc.) they basically stop passing it to those players and go 4 on 4. Parker and Gasol are tire fires on defense and Gasol, Lee, and LMA are rank among the worst in pick and roll defenders on PPP basis.

If Pop were to go with Dedmon at the five with Parker, Green, Leonard, and LMA. That trend should change drastically. This explains why Leonards steals and blocks per game have dipped despite playing more minutes same for his rebounding. If teams are having his man hide out in the corner then he is too far away from the play to grab defensive boards like he did earlier in his career.

Matt Bonner was the king of the +/- stat, that alone shows me it was a heavily flawed stat lol. I agree.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

Matt Bonner was the king of the +/- stat, that alone shows me it was a heavily flawed stat lol. I agree.

It was not just noise though. There's a reason he graded so well in +/- and not necessarily because he was a good player, but he's shown that for long stretches of games if you can drag an opponent big away from the basket it opens the floor for your teammates, effectively making them better. Thus the +/- being high and the value of the stretch 4 position - the +/- in his case was legit.

[Arcadian]

It's probably because his teammates relax on defense when Kawhi is on the floor, knowing he's there waiting in the wings, ready to swoop in and save the day. When he's off the floor, everyone goes, "Gotta lock down now! Team defense!" And they synergize better that way.

[DenialTwist]

Moore was right about one thing, Parker and Gasol won't improve defensively, they can't. So maybe if Pop played the most effective lineups, the team might improve defensively. Also Parker being in the 6th percentile as a pick n roll ball handler is atrocious. Good Lord. Spurs will lose Mills next year and Murray is far from ready to be a starting pg. Kawhi is going to get burnt out from having to carry the defense and offense. Not sustainable. Pop is overrated, he should've retired with Timmy. This team needs a new coach who doesn't prioritize seniority and loyalty over winning. It seems like the Spurs keep looking for answers when the solution is already there but Pop refuses to make changes.

[Chinook]

It was not just noise though. There's a reason he graded so well in +/- and not necessarily because he was a good player, but he's shown that for long stretches of games if you can drag an opponent big away from the basket it opens the floor for your teammates, effectively making them better. Thus the +/- being high and the value of the stretch 4 position - the +/- in his case was legit.

One of these days, people will connect Bonner's plus-minus with the fact that so many teams now have stretch-bigs. One of these days.

[Chinook]

The biggest question is about when Leonard's off the court: The defense is bad when Leonard's on the court. But why is the defense so much better when Leonard's not playing? The lineups thing makes sense, in terms of playing starters vs. playing bench guys. But it's still baffling that these other units, some of which feature Gasol and Parker, are still defending well. How does the offense change their habits when they're not facing Leonard? That's the biggest thing we still don't understand.

This is not hard to understand when you aren't cherry-picking examples to try to fit your predetermined conclusion. You want to try to find a trend to explain the Spurs struggle? Look at how Kawhi's defensive rating correlates to his offensive rating. If his shots aren't falling consistently (or if he's not going to the line), then the Spurs can't set up their defense. I doubt that is something unique to Kawhi at all. Any first-option wing struggling on offense will hurt his team's defense, just due to where they get their shots from. There are shots that are inherently good like corner-threes, and there are shots that are only acceptable if a player hits them at a high clip like long-twos. Whenever Kawhi, Mills, Parker, LMA or Gasol struggle hitting those, it really cramps the offense.

Also, non-cherry-picked examples would show when Kawhi is getting beat as well, especially when he's not guarding small-forwards. The article acts like Fournier scoring seven first-half points is somehow horrible for the Spurs when he's the first option for the Magic. He still scored 13 for the game, which is about what you'd expect. The Spurs didn't move Kawhi on him to shut him down; they did so because they didn't want Manu guarding him and thought Gordon would be easier for Ginobili to handle. The Wizards game saw Porter go for 15/12 in addition to the back court having good games. LMaM scored a season high, and Redick was productive. Too many counter examples to try to make things fit a narrative. Doesn't mean that teams can't attack the Spurs in the way he described. It may be an issue the Spurs will really have to look at come playoff time. But it's not the handy explanation he wants it to be.

The Spurs aren't losing games based on this 4-on-4 idea. They lost games because they either couldn't score to save their lives for long stretches or because they are getting killed by random three-point barrages. In a way, I'm glad that more fans will understand how spacing really works when they see it explained from the other side. They can hopefully realize why thinking that someone like Green getting "shut down" by not having a guy leave him doesn't mean he's not helping the offense. But getting consistently good looks on offense is easily the Spurs' biggest issue. I just don't know if they have the offensive personnel on the team to get there.

[YGWHI]

Looking at the numbers Mills-Dedmon combo maximize every Spurs lineups. :tu

But I can see Pop refusing to make the right moves at this point of the season. "It's just December" "Gasol is the experiencedguy over Dedmon" "Doesn't matter what they say, I'll die with Parker"

I wonder how a player gains more experience if he doesn't play many minutes with the team.


This is not hard to understand when you aren't cherry-picking examples to try to fit your predetermined conclusion. You want to try to find a trend to explain the Spurs struggle? Look at how Kawhi's defensive rating correlates to his offensive rating. If his shots aren't falling consistently (or if he's not going to the line), then the Spurs can't set up their defense. I doubt that is something unique to Kawhi at all. Any first-option wing struggling on offense will hurt his team's defense, just due to where they get their shots from. There are shots that are inherently good like corner-threes, and there are shots that are only acceptable if a player hits them at a high clip like long-twos.

Kawhi is averaging 24.7 ppg in .47 FG% mid-range, .52 FG% in 16-24 ft, overall .495 2P FG%

.50 FG% is a high percentage on those shots and Spurs D still looks bad or at least not elite top 5.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

Kawhi is averaging 24.7 ppg in .47 FG% mid-range, .52 FG% in 16-24 ft, overall .495 2P FG%

.50 FG% is a high percentage on those shots and Spurs D still looks bad or at least not elite top 5.

.500 on midrange Js is elite and yet it only equates to .333 from deep, this is why the Warriors will always overwhelm a team relying so much on midrange. Kawhi's biggest problem this season is that he's shooing career lows, and by a healthy margin, at the rim and also from 3-10 feet away AND he's shooting from there less often than he ever has.

If he can't get to the rim more often, combined with LMA finding his low post game from last season, as opposed to the terrible Gasol post ups, the Spurs have no chance to compete in a 7 game series against great offensive teams.

[Chinook]

.500 on midrange Js is elite and yet it only equates to .333 from deep, this is why the Warriors will always overwhelm a team relying so much on midrange. Kawhi's biggest problem this season is that he's shooing career lows, and by a healthy margin, at the rim and also from 3-10 feet away AND he's shooting from there less often than he ever has.

If he can't get to the rim more often, combined with LMA finding his low post game from last season, as opposed to the terrible Gasol post ups, the Spurs have no chance to compete in a 7 game series against great offensive teams.

It doesn't help that Kawhi is still in the mode where he's trying to get fouled driving rather than scoring. If he starts scoring better inside, then teams will start fouling him again, but throwing up bad shots while screaming at the refs is a negative feedback loop.

The problem with the Spurs is that they are letting themselves be too dependent on Kawhi. They can't recover from him shooting poorly, on either end. Some of that is pure personnel, especially in the back court. But some of that is also that their offense isn't trying to incorporate other guys as much as it used to. Dedmon starting would help, but unless that also comes with Parker being able to handle more of the offensive load (and getting that load), then it won't be as good as people want it to be.

With the current emphasis on Kawhi and LMA, the Spurs are becoming a poor man's version of the Durant Thunder in their starting unit. Both of those guys were uber-efficient too if you just looked at their numbers.

[MaNu4Tres]

.500 on midrange Js is elite and yet it only equates to .333 from deep, this is why the Warriors will always overwhelm a team relying so much on midrange. Kawhi's biggest problem this season is that he's shooing career lows, and by a healthy margin, at the rim and also from 3-10 feet away AND he's shooting from there less often than he ever has.

If he can't get to the rim more often, combined with LMA finding his low post game from last season, as opposed to the terrible Gasol post ups, the Spurs have no chance to compete in a 7 game series against great offensive teams.

Nice post.

My exact sentiments when having a conversation the other day.

It's amazing how people can't quite grasp this. When majority of the shots you shoot are long 2's, you will lose in the long run vs. the better teams who find and create more valuable shots ( open 3 PAs, layups/dunks). It's why the Spurs beat the Heat in 14', and why they were the better team in 13' -- even if they didn't have the same elite talent from a player perspective. Spurs rely too much on the long 2 -- it's that simple.

Also, LMA wasn't even that effective in the post last year. Spurs ran a lot of action getting LA really easy looks inside when Duncan would flash quicker than Gasol, once LA had inside position on his man. This year so far, Spurs haven't given LA as many easy looks inside. He's had to resort to his lethargic and predictable 4 down, back to the basket, 4 dribbles reverse pivot fade-away.

[MaNu4Tres]

It doesn't help that Kawhi is still in the mode where he's trying to get fouled driving rather than scoring. If he starts scoring better inside, then teams will start fouling him again, but throwing up bad shots while screaming at the refs is a negative feedback loop.

The problem with the Spurs is that they are letting themselves be too dependent on Kawhi. They can't recover from him shooting poorly, on either end. Some of that is pure personnel, especially in the back court. But some of that is also that their offense isn't trying to incorporate other guys as much as it used to. Dedmon starting would help, but unless that also comes with Parker being able to handle more of the offensive load (and getting that load), then it won't be as good as people want it to be.

With the current emphasis on Kawhi and LMA, the Spurs are becoming a poor man's version of the Durant Thunder in their starting unit. Both of those guys were uber-efficient too if you just looked at their numbers.

Good post.

However, Kawhi will struggle scoring inside with the ball in PnRs. He simple doesn't have the physical attributes with the ball (speed, quickness, acceleration, change of direction ect) to create the needed separation. He scores mostly from his overrated mid range J from the PnR that yields a pretty PPP. The reason Kawhi's PPP in PnRs overrated is because theres not much else that option manufactures. You need your lead man to develop options for everyone ( including himself) when he has the ball. If your lead man doesn't have that kind of multi- option threat with the ball, in high volume, the overall O will suffer -- which will hurt the D as you mentioned.

That is why Kawhi can't be the lead guy on O if this team wants to compete for another title. He needs help and LaMarcus isn't the answer for that as his offense is predicated on shots being created for him right now ( he's not a good shot creator).

[Chinook]

Good post.

However, Kawhi will struggle scoring inside with the ball in PnRs. He simple doesn't have the physical attributes with the ball to create the needed separation. He scores mostly from his overrated mid range J from the PnR that yields a pretty PPP. The reason the PPP is overrated is because theres not much else that option manufactures.

I don't like the idea of Kawhi in as the PnR ball-handler that much. I'd rather have him be the screen-setter, which would give him the option to pop to the three-point line if the D plays it honestly or to have a favorable match-up if the D switches the PG onto him. With Pau and LMA being credible three-point shooters this season and with Bertans as an option, there should be opportunities to do that without sacrificing spacing.

A ton of Kawhi is general isn't good for the Spurs. A ton of Kawhi in good positions is what's good. And that's really true for every player.

[MaNu4Tres]

I don't like the idea of Kawhi in as the PnR ball-handler that much. I'd rather have him be the screen-setter, which would give him the option to pop to the three-point line if the D plays it honestly or to have a favorable match-up if the D switches the PG onto him. With Pau and LMA being credible three-point shooters this season and with Bertans as an option, there should be opportunities to do that without sacrificing spacing.

A ton of Kawhi is general isn't good for the Spurs. A ton of Kawhi in good positions is what's good. And that's really true for every player.

Me either. I don't like it and that's why when ESPN guys like Tom Haberstroh, who don't watch the Spurs as in-depth as you or I, makes a column on Kawhis' high PPP in PnR it makes me want to puke. Fans are just looking at the stat and jerking off to it, when they do not realize he's actually not a great weapon in PnRs because of his inability to manufacturer good looks for others like the PnR is suppose to do.

[CGD]

It's like having a shutdown corner like Deon Sanders. The opposing QB doesn't even look that way. The problem for the Spurs in the analogy however is that the defenders on the other side of the ball (Pau and Parker here) routinely give up the long ball down the field.

It's a direct consequence of losing Timmy and Parker's deteriorating play.

[MaNu4Tres]

It's like having a shutdown corner like Deon Sanders. The opposing QB doesn't even look that way. The problem for the Spurs in the analogy however is that the defenders on the other side of the ball (Pau and Parker here) routinely give up the long ball down the field.

It's a direct consequence of losing Timmy and Parker's deteriorating play.

People act like teams are just starting to go away from Kawhi though. Teams have been going away from Kawhi, and exploiting Parker/Mills any chance they get for years now.

[Chinook]

It's like having a shutdown corner like Deon Sanders. The opposing QB doesn't even look that way. The problem for the Spurs in the analogy however is that the defenders on the other side of the ball (Pau and Parker here) routinely give up the long ball down the field.

It's a direct consequence of losing Timmy and Parker's deteriorating play.

Except apparently, when Deon goes out, the rest of the secondary becomes All-NFL caliber.

PnRs are "handed" if you will. Even high ones go to one side or the other. Acting like some gifs of PnRs on the other side is evidence is so strange to me. That's nothing special. If we start seeing guys like Redick running PnRs to take Kawhi-on-CP out of the play, then it's interesting. But so long as Kawhi's guarding relative non-factors, (Butler is the exception), no one should think it unique for him to not be able to do much on defense.

[GSH]

Pop always says that good defense leads to good offense. But bad offense leads to bad defense on the other end. I don't like the way this starting offense is operating, and it's causing problems on both ends of the floor. 82% of Kawhi's shots are jumpers. When he does get deep into the paint, 11% of his close-range shots gets blocked. (1 in 9!) He's also taking 45% of his shots late in the clock, and only about 40% of those are assisted. So he's spending a lot of his time going solo into the teeth of the defense, late in the clock. He's really good at iso ball, compared to most - but it's still giving up a lot of easy points on the other end. That shit will seriously drag down the defensive numbers, +/-, and on/off stats.

If you really dig into the stats you can see that the Spurs are seriously getting their asses kicked in the early part of shot clocks. Their opponents are taking almost 40% of their shots in the first 10 seconds of the shot clock (compared to 33% for the Spurs). And the Opponent FG% on those shots is very high, as you would expect. Kawhi is taking 45% of his shots in the last 8 seconds of the clock. He's good at it, but he's still being forced to take a lot of not-very-good shots.

The idea that Kawhi is "so good at defense that he's hurting the team" is ridiculous. Bottom line, the Spurs starting five is lacking in interior defense. They only have two guys (Kawhi and Danny) who put any effort into transition D. And they feature an iso-heavy offense that gives up a lot of transition opportunities on misses. I don't think that's Kawhi's fault. He's doing exactly what Pop wants.

[Chinook]

If you really dig into the stats you can see that the Spurs are seriously getting their asses kicked in the early part of shot clocks. Their opponents are taking almost 40% of their shots in the first 10 seconds of the shot clock (compared to 33% for the Spurs). And the Opponent FG% on those shots is very high, as you would expect. Kawhi is taking 45% of his shots in the last 8 seconds of the clock. He's good at it, but he's still being forced to take a lot of not-very-good shots.

The shot-clock thing is fascinating, and it definitely implies that the Spurs aren't setting up their defense properly. I don't know if there's a stat for points scored off mismatches, but if there is one, I imagine it shows the team has been pretty poor in that end. A lot of that has to do with getting back, even if they don't count as fast-break points.

[Brazil]

somebody should merge both threads tbh

[Chinook]

somebody should merge both threads tbh

I think there are three. There's this one, the one wondering if Kawhi's D issues are overrated and then that Dedmon one. Are are essentially blaming everyone else but Kawhi for Kawhi's defensive numbers.

[Brazil]

I think there are three. There's this one, the one wondering if Kawhi's D issues are overrated and then that Dedmon one. Are are essentially blaming everyone else but Kawhi for Kawhi's defensive numbers.

not sure if blaming is the right word, Moore demonstration is quite solid but then if I'm not mistaken the one wondering if Kawhi D issues are overrated was made before moore's article. thats why I was wondering if Moore was reading ST :lol

As I said previously, I don't see that (isolate Kawhi on defense) as a big deal, a lot of rosters won't do that anyway and solutions exist to counter it and make the team who use this tactic pay for it.

Now numbers and analysis just show what we already knew, Spurs defense fundamental was Tim and Kawhi, with Tim gone, team is struggling and not because kawhi regressed defensively but because defense of SL depends only on Kawhi. On all of that I'm not forgetting Danny but I'm not sure what to think, normally if best guard is taken out by this tactic, Danny that is a great defender should be able to cover part of the issue but his numbers are not that great either.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

I don't know if there's a stat for points scored off mismatches, but if there is one, I imagine it shows the team has been pretty poor in that end.

All season the Spurs have been more than happy to switch on the PnR and manufacture mismatches, only to be burnt after that. Not sure if they're preparing for the Warriors playing this way or something else, but it blatantly does not work against some teams, especially the Clippers and Rockets. Has to be intentional though, not just lazy/bad defense.

[Chinook]

not sure if blaming is the right word, Moore demonstration is quite solid

No, it's not. Chicago scored at an 84-ppg pace in the first quarter. That's terrible. Had the Spurs scored 32 points in the first quarter rather than in the first half, no one would be saying anything about the defense. It was fine in that game. Moore putting in videos of the Bulls' successes glosses over the fact that the team was largely not successful. And the Washington and Orlando examples are even worse.


As I said previously, I don't see that (isolate Kawhi on defense) as a big deal, a lot of rosters won't do that anyway and solutions exist to counter it and make the team who use this tactic pay for it.

No roster will do it unless Pop puts Kawhi on the worst player. Even the Warriors aren't going to play without KD.


Now numbers and analysis just show what we already knew, Spurs defense fundamental was Tim and Kawhi, with Tim gone, team is struggling and not because kawhi regressed defensively but because defense of SL depends only on Kawhi.

The point of this article is that the "numbers" and "analysis" disagree. The numbers say Leonard's been poor this year. The analysis cherry-picked examples to blame everyone else. Is it as easy as saying Kawhi needs to play better defense? Nope. But the transition of Kawhi from a Marion/Pippen to a Kobe/Melo has had the predicted result. Until Pop fixes the offense, the defense will always be weak.

[Chinook]

All season the Spurs have been more than happy to switch on the PnR and manufacture mismatches, only to be burnt after that. Not sure if they're preparing for the Warriors playing this way or something else, but it blatantly does not work against some teams, especially the Clippers and Rockets. Has to be intentional though, not just lazy/bad defense.

I'm thinking that was the biggest effect of that "wall" defense Messina supposedly implemented a couple of years ago. It was definitely supposed to stop penetration and limit funneling, which had been the team's identity before. I think it would look fantastic if you had an engaged/in shape LMA and traded Gasol for Dedmon, or better yet Millsap.

[Brazil]

No, it's not. Chicago scored at an 84-ppg pace in the first quarter. That's terrible. Had the Spurs scored 32 points in the first quarter rather than in the first half, no one would be saying anything about the defense. It was fine in that game. Moore putting in videos of the Bulls' successes glosses over the fact that the team was largely not successful. And the Washington and Orlando examples are even worse.

Moore stated that this tactic has not been always successful but 1. no doubt that washington, bulls and orlando tried it 2. Point of Moore is not about is this tactic successful (as yourself is saying) but is this tactic can explain Kawhi defensive stats... as he mentionned there is no way Kawhi regressed that much visible when you see him play and also when you look offensive stat of the player he is guarding. So again article is not about is this tactic successful.



No roster will do it unless Pop puts Kawhi on the worst player. Even the Warriors aren't going to play without KD.

Not sure I understand, rosters like the three he took as an example already did it


The point of this article is that the "numbers" and "analysis" disagree. The numbers say Leonard's been poor this year. The analysis cherry-picked examples to blame everyone else. Is it as easy as saying Kawhi needs to play better defense? Nope. But the transition of Kawhi from a Marion/Pippen to a Kobe/Melo has had the predicted result. Until Pop fixes the offense, the defense will always be weak.

The analysis just showed what we already knew, with Tim no longer around, defense is worst because Kawhi cannot cover for everybody, Kawhi uses more energy on offense AND on top of that some teams even try to isolate him which I had not suspected before reading ST poster thread and Moore article.

[GSH]

Now numbers and analysis just show what we already knew, Spurs defense fundamental was Tim and Kawhi, with Tim gone, team is struggling and not because kawhi regressed defensively but because defense of SL depends only on Kawhi. On all of that I'm not forgetting Danny but I'm not sure what to think, normally if best guard is taken out by this tactic, Danny that is a great defender should be able to cover part of the issue but his numbers are not that great either.


A good defensive team needs perimeter defense AND interior defense. This team has one of the two. They also started the season without Danny on the floor, and that forced them into a lot of unusual rotations.

I don't know how to gauge whether Kawhi is defending 100% as good as last year. But I'm not buying the idea that Kawhi's good defense is hurting the team. To believe that, you would have to believe the converse - that having a lesser defender in his spot would make the team better. It wouldn't.

[Brazil]

A good defensive team needs perimeter defense AND interior defense. This team has one of the two. They also started the season without Danny on the floor, and that forced them into a lot of unusual rotations.

I don't know how to gauge whether Kawhi is defending 100% as good as last year. But I'm not buying the idea that Kawhi's good defense is hurting the team. To believe that, you would have to believe the converse - that having a lesser defender in his spot would make the team better. It wouldn't.

my thoughts exactly

[spursistan]

Folks dog whistling about Kawhi increased usage on O is hurting the team D and Pop must rectify it: well what's actually the alternative? Lamarcus Aldridge is no fuckin Blake Griffin for whom you're going to cede playmaking.. TP/Manu are like combined + 70 year-old..DG is D-league status in that role...Simms is raw and TO-prone.

They thought bringing a TOSB name like Gasol should take precedence over finding a dynamic PG; gotta live with the consequences.

[Chinook]

Moore stated that this tactic has not been always successful but 1. no doubt that washington, bulls and orlando tried it

This is wrong, and not even what he was saying. Only the Bulls "tried it" Kawhi guarded Otto Porter in the Wizards game. They were never going to run their offense through Porter, and Otto got up enough shots to score 15 efficient points. The Magic game's worse, because Kawhi was on a relative non-factor in Gordon to start the game, and when he "switched" onto Fournier, Evan scored at the same rate as he had before. Only Chicago actually sacrificed a top option to keep Kawhi out of the play and... they sucked because of it.


2. Point of Moore is not about is this tactic successful

Yes it is. Moore is trying to say that teams doing this are successful to the extent that Kawhi's team numbers are suffering. If they weren't successful, then Kawhi's team numbers would be neutral or good. But they aren't. They're terrible.


when you look offensive stat of the player he is guarding

The article itself says that players Kawhi is guarding are scoring better than average against him. The Butler case was an anomaly. Porter and Beal did just fine on him, and Neither Fournier or Gordon showed any drop-off.


defense is worst because Kawhi cannot cover for everybody,

The reality is that Kawhi isn't covering for anybody at all. That's why everyone has better rating without him. Having a guy like Tim or Tiago allowed Kawhi and Green to have more leeway either helping or playing off the ball. But Kawhi isn't struggling trying to cover for anybody. The article isn't even trying to say that. An example of what that looks like would be Green from a couple of years ago, when he had great scores in help defense by poor scores in spot-up man defense. Kawhi isn't overhelping.

Anyway, if every team did what the Bulls did and got the same offensive results, Pop would take it any day of the week, especially considering the first quarter. Despite cherry-picked gifs, the Spurs defense held up well with Kawhi in a corner.

[$pursDynasty]

I'm thinking that was the biggest effect of that "wall" defense Messina supposedly implemented a couple of years ago. It was definitely supposed to stop penetration and limit funneling, which had been the team's identity before. I think it would look fantastic if you had an engaged/in shape LMA and traded Gasol for Dedmon, or better yet Millsap.
You know now that I think about it teams used to just penetrate at will on the Spurs and destroy the defensive integrity. I remember Monte Ellis would destroy us with that and he wasn't the only one. I for one don't want to go back to everybody driving down the lane on us but obviously we can't keep going like this.

[Chinook]

You know now that I think about it teams used to just penetrate at will on the Spurs and destroy the defensive integrity. I remember Monte Ellis would destroy us with that and he wasn't the only one. I for one don't want to go back to everybody driving down the lane on us but obviously we can't keep going like this.

There's a difference to getting styled on like that and doing what the Spurs used to do and funnel to their bigs. Last year, the change worked fantastically, so I don't want to act like it's a failure. But it'd probably help Pau out a lot to not have to chase guys around the perimeter.

[Brazil]

This is wrong, and not even what he was saying. Only the Bulls "tried it" Kawhi guarded Otto Porter in the Wizards game. They were never going to run their offense through Porter, and Otto got up enough shots to score 15 efficient points. The Magic game's worse, because Kawhi was on a relative non-factor in Gordon to start the game, and when he "switched" onto Fournier, Evan scored at the same rate as he had before. Only Chicago actually sacrificed a top option to keep Kawhi out of the play and... they sucked because of it.

-_- I'm puzzled. Moore took 3 games and showed actions where teams did it, that's his point. he did not say he has stats to back it up neither if this happens a lot or not.



Yes it is. Moore is trying to say that teams doing this are successful to the extent that Kawhi's team numbers are suffering. If they weren't successful, then Kawhi's team numbers would be neutral or good. But they aren't. They're terrible.

What do you mean by successful ? if sucessful is winning games using that tactic, this is not what he said. He stated Spurs are still top 10 on defense with good record etc... he is even wondering if Kawhi is too good of a defender... now the fact you think otherwise is a different story



The article itself says that players Kawhi is guarding are scoring better than average against him. The Butler case was an anomaly. Porter and Beal did just fine on him, and Neither Fournier or Gordon showed any drop-off.

sure but as Moore stated 10 times in this article Kawhi did not become a bad defender 6 months after being the new Pippen



The reality is that Kawhi isn't covering for anybody at all. That's why everyone has better rating without him. Having a guy like Tim or Tiago allowed Kawhi and Green to have more leeway either helping or playing off the ball. But Kawhi isn't struggling trying to cover for anybody. The article isn't even trying to say that. An example of what that looks like would be Green from a couple of years ago, when he had great scores in help defense by poor scores in spot-up man defense. Kawhi isn't overhelping.

article did say that yes... Kawhi taken in no man's land trying to cover his guy that was isolated and provide help to his teammates... article also stated that it is not working thus spurs struggle in defense with SL


Anyway, if every team did what the Bulls did and got the same offensive results, Pop would take it any day of the week, especially considering the first quarter. Despite cherry-picked gifs, the Spurs defense held up well with Kawhi in a corner.

That's exactly my point too... this tactic is not gonna work

[Brazil]

At the end Chinook my man, what's your view on that ? I don't believe one sec your argument is to say Kawhi became a shit defender

If your points are:
- Tim is fucking underrated even for an all time defensive talent he was important and a big factor in Kawhi massive defensive metrics
- As kawhi is having more load on offensive end because Spurs are over using iso plays thus his defense suffers a bit

we can agree on something. Now I'd add that and this is the point of Moore:

- Opponents want to avoid Kawhi and attack weaker dudes Tony, Pau, LMA and even Danny. They can go to the extreme (see Bulls) or more often just attacking our P&R defense, targetting the weakests defenders etc
- SL defense is in a tough spot and its not going to get better

If your point is Kawhi became a bad defender, metrics don't lie or there is no other explanation than he sucks well :lol

[dabom]

At the end Chinook my man, what's your view on that ? I don't believe one sec your argument is to say Kawhi became a shit defender

If your points are:
- Tim is fucking underrated even for an all time defensive talent he was important and a big factor in Kawhi massive defensive metrics
- As kawhi is having more load on offensive end because Spurs are over using iso plays thus his defense suffers a bit

we can agree on something. Now I'd add that and this is the point of Moore:

- Opponents want to avoid Kawhi and attack weaker dudes Tony, Pau, LMA and even Danny. They can go to the extreme (see Bulls) or more often just attacking our P&R defense, targetting the weakests defenders etc
- SL defense is in a tough spot and its not going to get better

If your point is Kawhi became a bad defender, metrics don't lie or there is no other explanation than he sucks well :lol

"Green is a better defender" :lol

[Brazil]

:lol Also, I think this is Harlem who pointed it out, it is probably too soon to conclude on the differencial of FG% when Kawhi is contesting a shot vs. last season. I mean Kawhi length and wingspan did not decrease, I don't see Kawhi faking more contesting shots or putting less energy on contesting than last year tbh

[Chinook]

-_- I'm puzzled. Moore took 3 games and showed actions where teams did it, that's his point. he did not say he has stats to back it up neither if this happens a lot or not.

Nah. His point is, "This is why Kawhi's numbers are bad." And then he cherry-picked examples. But only the Bulls actually did it. Porter got his with Kawhi on him (so the Wizards never went away from Leonard), and Fournier never got his. It's just a wrong point.


What do you mean by successful ? if sucessful is winning games using that tactic, this is not what he said. He stated Spurs are still top 10 on defense with good record etc... he is even wondering if Kawhi is too good of a defender... now the fact you think otherwise is a different story

The Spurs with Kawhi parked in a corner defended at an elite clip. So a) that wasn't a problem for them and b) that doesn't explain why Kawhi's numbers are so bad. His whole premise is wrong.


sure but as Moore stated 10 times in this article Kawhi did not become a bad defender 6 months after being the new Pippen

No he didn't. But he hasn't been good this year. Rather than jumping through hoops to blame others, Moore should be able to call a spade a spade. Danny didn't become an awful shooter last year, but he still shot terribly. Both things can be true without cognitive dissonance.


article did say that yes... Kawhi taken in no man's land trying to cover his guy that was isolated and provide help to his teammates... article also stated that it is not working thus spurs struggle in defense with SL

But that would actually show in the stats like it does with Green. You don't have negative on/offs by being a good defender who overhelps.


That's exactly my point too... this tactic is not gonna work

Indeed, and it doesn't explain Kawhi's numbers. Just wish Moore didn't write an article saying as much.

[Chinook]

At the end Chinook my man, what's your view on that ? I don't believe one sec your argument is to say Kawhi became a shit defender

I've said it multiple times. The reason why the defense so poor is because the offense is poor. Kawhiso isn't good for the team. It's passable when he's hitting at a really high clip. But taking poor midrange shots really hurts a team's ability to set up their D, as does not being fouled. And yelling at the refs after getting blocked in the lane isn't helping. None of those things happen when Kawhi is out.

Also, as I said, he plays so many minutes that the guys who play without him only do so at the nadir of the other team's rotation. Danny's elite when not paired with Kawhi this year, but I doubt that he's had more than 100 minutes without Leonard in the game.


- As kawhi is having more load on offensive end because Spurs are over using iso plays thus his defense suffers a bit

And that's true as well. What's not true is that he's struggling trying to cover for everybody, because everyone else covers themselves just fine when he's not in the game.

[Brazil]

^ I overall disagree with all most everything you are saying and we surely did not read the same article. Let us proceed

[RD2191]

^ I overall disagree with all most everything you are saying and we surely did not read the same article. Let us proceed

Chinook has lost his mind tbh.

[dabom]

^ I overall disagree with all most everything you are saying and we surely did not read the same article. Let us proceed

Dude would want Dworst as our starting center. :lol

[Chinook]

This is the article's thesis:


So we've reached an impasse. We know Leonard is an elite defender. We know he's still locking up whoever he is facing. So how do we explain these numbers, the somewhat small sample size notwithstanding?

Is it possible that Leonard is, in fact, too good a defender?

And it's is a fallacious one.

In the intro he also said:


After all, we know Leonard is a great defender.


I know that sounds crazy, but those are the numbers.

Essentially, he keeps pissing in his well with those statements. Rather than trying to see what's going on, he's trying to look for ways to mold reality to fit his assumptions. And he's left with major issues that he brushes off because they're dissonant with his thesis.


The biggest question is about when Leonard's off the court: The defense is bad when Leonard's on the court. But why is the defense so much better when Leonard's not playing?

He makes it sound like this is just an area of further inquiry, but that's actually his harms at the beginning of the article restated.


Furthermore, the defensive rating of each one of the Spurs' eight rotation players gets worse with Leonard on the court, often by double-digits.

It's just a mess of an article, gifs notwithstanding.

[Chinook]

Chinook has lost his mind tbh.

Doing me wrong, Rob.

[All Mighty Janitor]

Nah. His point is, "This is why Kawhi's numbers are bad." And then he cherry-picked examples. But only the Bulls actually did it. Porter got his with Kawhi on him (so the Wizards never went away from Leonard), and Fournier never got his. It's just a wrong point.



The Spurs with Kawhi parked in a corner defended at an elite clip. So a) that wasn't a problem for them and b) that doesn't explain why Kawhi's numbers are so bad. His whole premise is wrong.



No he didn't. But he hasn't been good this year. Rather than jumping through hoops to blame others, Moore should be able to call a spade a spade. Danny didn't become an awful shooter last year, but he still shot terribly. Both things can be true without cognitive dissonance.



But that would actually show in the stats like it does with Green. You don't have negative on/offs by being a good defender who overhelps.



Indeed, and it doesn't explain Kawhi's numbers. Just wish Moore didn't write an article saying as much.
Opposing teams were already going 4v4 last year to get Kawhi out of the main action, so then why is the result so much different this year compared to the last? Like i said in the post I made, this article shows just one part of the problem. Tim allowed the wings to stay home on their men, because he could protect the rim with either Kawhi or green in front of him. Gasol can't; he doesn't rotate all the time because of foot speed and/or awareness. With no rim protector, everybody on the wing has to help Gasol out so they overhelp to protect the rim [I assume Pop would rather give up jumpers than layups]. This leaves the wings(especially Kawhi as he would most likely be the baseline rotater) trying to close out to shooters, at the shooters mercy. This is why Kawhi's defenders shoot better from three when he on them. Kawhi's not doing anything different from last year. He being asked to cover-up for Gasol's short comings and his impact/numbers suffer for it.

[Spurs_619]

Chinook has been all in on the green>Kawhi on D for a couple years now. Dude thought green was a better overall player then kawhi in 14... biggest homer on this site tbh.

[Brazil]

Opposing teams were already going 4v4 last year to get Kawhi out of the main action, so then why is the result so much different this year compared to the last? Like i said in the post I made, this article shows just one part of the problem. Tim allowed the wings to stay home on their men, because he could protect the rim with either Kawhi or green in front of him. Gasol can't; he doesn't rotate all the time because of foot speed and/or awareness. With no rim protector, everybody on the wing has to help Gasol out so they overhelp to protect the rim [I assume Pop would rather give up jumpers than layups]. This leaves the wings(especially Kawhi as he would most likely be the baseline rotater) trying to close out to shooters, at the shooters mercy. This is why Kawhi's defenders shoot better from three when he on them. Kawhi's not doing anything different from last year. He being asked to cover-up for Gasol's short comings and his impact/numbers suffer for it.

Yes This is what Moore is also saying in his article

[dabom]

I don't think anyone actually working in the NBA can make a case for Kawhi being a bad defender. Fucking cucks I tell you. :lol

[Chinook]

Opposing teams were already going 4v4 last year to get Kawhi out of the main action, so then why is the result so much different this year compared to the last? Like i said in the post I made, this article shows just one part of the problem. Tim allowed the wings to stay home on their men, because he could protect the rim with either Kawhi or green in front of him. Gasol can't; he doesn't rotate all the time because of foot speed and/or awareness. With no rim protector, everybody on the wing has to help Gasol out so they overhelp to protect the rim [I assume Pop would rather give up jumpers than layups]. This leaves the wings(especially Kawhi as he would most likely be the baseline rotater) trying to close out to shooters, at the shooters mercy. This is why Kawhi's defenders shoot better from three when he on them. Kawhi's not doing anything different from last year. He being asked to cover-up for Gasol's short comings and his impact/numbers suffer for it.

But then everyone else would suffer in kind. But they don't for some reason, when it's Simmons or Anderson in Kawhi's spot, Gasol doesn't look as bad. I agree that there are defensive issues that can be exploited. But those aren't going to explain away Kawhi's issues. BBall Breakdown managed to both show more evidence for Moore's point while rejecting the thesis Moore made.

Anyway, if you're looking for a change, the easiest thing that affects Kawhi uniquely is his shot selection. People who think it's better or the same just aren't watching closely. It's much riskier.

[Spurs_619]

But then everyone else would suffer in kind. But they don't for some reason, when it's Simmons or Anderson in Kawhi's spot, Gasol doesn't look as bad. I agree that there are defensive issues that can be exploited. But those aren't going to explain away Kawhi's issues. BBall Breakdown managed to both show more evidence for Moore's point while rejecting the thesis Moore made.

Anyway, if you're looking for a change, the easiest thing that affects Kawhi uniquely is his shot selection. People who think it's better or the same just aren't watching closely. It's much riskier.

Of course his shot selection is diff. last year he was still playing a lot more off the ball just by the nature of his role his shot selection is going to change.

[Chinook]

Of course his shot selection is diff. last year he was still playing a lot more off the ball just by the nature of his role his shot selection is going to change.

Indeed. I don't know if it would be the same with better guards, but it's shaky. He's so good that he fools people into thinking those are good shots, but they aren't. It's like people arguing that Curry is taking good shots when he jacks up 35-footers.

[pgardn]

Mostly good stuff in this thread.

Still miss Duncan down low on D.

[All Mighty Janitor]

But then everyone else would suffer in kind. But they don't for some reason, when it's Simmons or Anderson in Kawhi's spot, Gasol doesn't look as bad. I agree that there are defensive issues that can be exploited. But those aren't going to explain away Kawhi's issues. BBall Breakdown managed to both show more evidence for Moore's point while rejecting the thesis Moore made.

Anyway, if you're looking for a change, the easiest thing that affects Kawhi uniquely is his shot selection. People who think it's better or the same just aren't watching closely. It's much riskier.
Maybe Anderson or Simmons just stay home or don't have to help out against other bench units thus their individual numbers are better. I don't really know; it just a thought.

Also about the shot selection; wouldn't Kawhi be able to get back on D faster if if he taking a jumper instead of driving to the rim on a make or miss? He also very efficient so that should allow the team to get back. Maybe there is something I'm missing, but I doubt his shot selection could be affecting his defensive numbers that much.

[Sean Cagney]

It was not just noise though. There's a reason he graded so well in +/- and not necessarily because he was a good player, but he's shown that for long stretches of games if you can drag an opponent big away from the basket it opens the floor for your teammates, effectively making them better. Thus the +/- being high and the value of the stretch 4 position - the +/- in his case was legit.

Not a huge fan of the guy but honestly that is true.

[YGWHI]

sure but as Moore stated 10 times in this article Kawhi did not become a bad defender 6 months after being the new Pippen
And Moore is right about this.

You can read Chinnok posting "The Butler case was an anomaly" But Kawhi already shut down Klay, Gay, Wiggins, Butler in the season...

Also when you read from him "Porter and Beal did just fine on him, and Neither Fournier or Gordon showed any drop-off."..

It's so funny because Danny was the guy who defended them most game until Pop decided they went too hot and put Kawhi on those guys.

[dabom]

YG is just straight savage. :wow

[YGWHI]

.500 on midrange Js is elite

I know. That's why I posted it.

Chinnok specifically said "Any first-option wing struggling on offense will hurt his team's defense, just due to where they get their shots from. There are shots that are inherently good like corner-threes, and there are shots that are only acceptable if a player hits them at a high clip like long-twos."

Kawhi is hitting those shots at high percentage, so no that's not an issue for our defense.

Sure, you're right Kawhi's shooting is a career low but there are two factors for those numbers.

Kawhi is taking a bigger offensive role and efficiency always decreases a bit in those situations, and this season he's learning how to draw fouls, he'll force there to get the calls. It's a learning process.

Again, Kawhi's offense isn't one of the Spurs main issues on defense like he said.
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