As if this hurricane season couldn't get weirder: meet Vince

[MannyIsGod]

We find one of the more unusual Tropical Species has formed today -- and there is no question it IS a storm. But is it a
Tropical Storm, or a Sub-tropical storm? While admitting this is somewhat 'subjective' -- NHC decided to call it
Tropical Storm Vince -- and it is located where I don't believe there have been 'official' Tropical Storms before. I
suspect, in the 'old days' -- before the satellite era -- ships encountering these system would simply have called it a
'storm' with gale force winds.

The storm is located near 34.0N/19.2W, or about 140NM NW of the Madeira Islands. Or -- how about 420NM SW of
Lisbon, Spain. Moving NE at about 4Kts. Satellite MAX wind estimates of this 100NM wide storm -- are about
45Kts.

While we have to accept the reality that a tropical storm has in fact formed -- I'm not convinced the water
temps are as cold as has been 'officially' analyzed 23,5°C. One product from the Navy (below) supports a SST of
25°C. And even then -- this is yet another mathematical inference based on satellite data. Clearly, it would REALLY
help to know what the actual water temps are - and considering the uniqueness of this system -- would be nice to
have a RECON. This must have some tremendous scientific value - and a missed opportunity to get In-Situ measurements.

With a cold front approaching from the NW - this storm will go extra-tropical - presumably -- before it reaches the coast
of Spain. Just one more letter to go!

I'll send another update on this oddity tomorrow morning.

[MannyIsGod]

000
WTNT43 KNHC 091500
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM VINCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN OCT 09 2005

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OF NON-TROPICAL ORIGIN THAT HAS BEEN NEARLY
STATIONARY IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC... IN BETWEEN THE AZORES AND
THE CANARY ISLANDS... HAS BEEN ACQUIRING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS OR SO. WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM IS NOW A
TROPICAL OR A SUBTROPICAL STORM IS SOMEWHAT OF A SUBJECTIVE
DETERMINATION. EVEN THOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS SITUATED OVER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 23-24 CELSIUS AND IS BENEATH A LARGE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH... IT NOW HAS SEVERAL CHARACTERISTICS THAT
WARRANT CLASSIFICATION AS TROPICAL STORM VINCE. THE CYCLONE IS
ISOLATED AND IS QUITE SYMMETRIC WITH A SMALL RADIUS OF MAXIMUM
WINDS... PERHAPS 20-25 N MI... AND WHILE IT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
LARGER ENVELOPE OF CYCLONIC FLOW AT THE SURFACE... THE INNER CORE
OF CONVECTION ONLY HAS A DIAMETER OF ABOUT 100 N MI. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NOT APPARENT ON SATELLITE ANIMATIONS... BUT A
07Z AMSU OVERPASS REVEALS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WARM CORE. CYCLONE
PHASE SPACE ANALYSES FROM FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY INDICATE THIS
SYSTEM IS SYMMETRIC AND NOT VERY FAR ON THE COLD CORE SIDE OF THE
SPECTRUM.

THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS SUPPORTED BY A 0640Z QUIKSCAT
OVERPASS AND BY SUBTROPICAL SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND
SAB OF 3.0 BASED ON THE HEBERT-POTEAT TECHNIQUE. SINCE SUBTROPICAL
CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE BEEN MADE ON THIS SYSTEM FOR THE PAST DAY OR
SO... VINCE COULD EASILY BE DEEMED TO HAVE BECOME A SUBTROPICAL
STORM YESTERDAY. VINCE HAS BEEN CUT OFF FROM THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS... BUT NOW SEEMS TO BE
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 4 KT. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED ALONG THIS SAME HEADING IS EXPECTED UNTIL VINCE MERGES WITH A
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.

FORECASTER KNABB

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

I bet HE can't beat OU.