Does Current Parker Make Spurs Legit Contenders?

[TD 21]

He hasn't made it through a playoffs unscathed since '12, mere days after he hit 30. Since then, he's had difficulty just going long stretches without picking up some type of lower body injury, that saps his speed, quickness and lift. So even with careful game and minute management, there's just too many games to expect him to maintain his recent level and hold up another 4-6 months . . . but for the purposes of this, let's pretend he does.

I'm going yes. I still don't think they'd win it, but I do think they'd have a puncher's chance. Him looking like a real starting point guard again transforms the entire offense from limited to dynamic.

[RD2191]

CP3 always obliterates Parker. One year older isn't going to change that.

[spurraider21]

I wouldn't mind the spurs taking a few bad L's so OP can go back to being emo and off himself

[SpursIndonesia]

IF (with caps) this TP can show up in the playoff, i like our chances better against the Dubs, much more.

[Chinook]

They were contenders before. Now they just have more breathing room.

[Chews]

I don't understand the pessimism regarding the Spurs' chance to win it all on this board. We are right on par with CLE who just beat GSW just as we beat GSW on opening night. One game doesn't say too much throughout an 82 game season and best of 7 in the playoffs, but we have shown we are capable of beating GSW on their court, who'd I assume everyone thinks we aren't as good as. IMO we have just as good of a chance as GSW does. I don't understand the mentality of us having a "puncher's chance"... to me we are right in the mix.

To answer the question, I think without TP we have significantly less of a chance to win it all. He isn't our best player (no shit lol) but he's still relied on heavily to make our offense go. When he is on, our offense is damn near unstoppable.

[Robz4000]

They've always had a punchers chance; just needed a lot of outside help to get there. In terms of Parker and his play: it helps, but I still don't think it's enough to make them legit contenders. The bench hasn't looked as potent as it has to start the season and they'll need it to play at a high level to neutralize the star-power/athleticism disadvantages they'll face. On top of that Gasol is much worse on defense than I think PATFO realized and I don't think they're willing to admit that mistake by starting Dedmon (not to mention if Gasol would accept said benching); even then Dedmon hasn't been quite as good in recent weeks (last night's game notwithstanding) with his foul proneness rearing it's ugly head.

On top of Tony keeping up his play, the Spurs need a few more things to happen:

-Gasol needs to improve with his defensive effort. He'll never be Duncan (even at the end of last season's level on defense) but he needs to put more into stopping guards on the PnR instead of pretending to while fouling when they blitz past him. He also needs to put more into securing rebounds that aren't right at the basket. Two or three games this season have been decided on those rebounds', and generally not in the Spurs' favor, with Gasol having the chance to secure them but just simply not caring enough to do so.

-Dedmon needs more trust from Pop. Even when he was playing great earlier on, we've seen Pop bench him in favor of Gasol (or even Lee) to end games. This cannot happen against the Clips/Dubs/Cavs of the league that'll exploit Gasol/Lee's defensive deficiencies every time down the court.

-Manu and Patty need to remain consistent. Last night was a good example: LMA, Kawhi, and Parker were playing well, and Patty/Manu didn't force anything. In a playoff game, if they decide to play out of control/chuck and it isn't working, they can cost the team a win.

-Manu needs to keep up his 3PT shooting. He's been incredibly efficient from 3, and it's helped the team win several games already this season. Him being such a huge threat from three along with Mills makes Simmons/Lee/Dedmon effective as a unit, and should allow the bench to remain potent against any opponent.

[Chews]

Gasol needs to improve with his defensive effort. He'll never be Duncan (even at the end of last season's level on defense) but he needs to put more into stopping guards on the PnR instead of pretending to while fouling when they blitz past him. He also needs to put more into securing rebounds that aren't right at the basket. Two or three games this season have been decided on those rebounds', and generally not in the Spurs' favor, with Gasol having the chance to secure them but just simply not caring enough to do so.

Not disagreeing with you but where can I find numbers about Pau's (or anyone's) PnR defense? I think it is a weakness in his game and our defense in total, but to an eye test for myself he doesn't seem to be as bad as people claim him to be defending the PnR. Would like to compare his numbers with others' to see exactly how worrisome his defense is.

[Robz4000]

Not disagreeing with you but where can I find numbers about Pau's (or anyone's) PnR defense? I think it is a weakness in his game and our defense in total, but to an eye test for myself he doesn't seem to be as bad as people claim him to be defending the PnR. Would like to compare his numbers with others' to see exactly how worrisome his defense is.

Basketball-Reference

[weebo]

Legit contenders? No but KL and LA do. I don't get this fascination have with TP...he's the best we have this year. With TD gone, him and Manu are leaders on this team and that's just as important as points and rebounds.

[Chews]

Basketball-Reference

Am I missing something then? I don't see anything related to PnR defense. I do see DRTG which would be the best gauge I assume? He is 1 point higher than D Jordan this year, 2 points higher than H Whiteside this year, 1 point higher than D Howard this year, 3 points higher than D Green. Those are all known rim protectors. Is this not accurate or varies based on how the team plays? I understand defense is no where near his specialty but I think a lot of people hype how bad he is.

[BillMc]

They were contenders before. Now they just have more breathing room.


I don't understand the pessimism regarding the Spurs' chance to win it all on this board. We are right on par with CLE who just beat GSW just as we beat GSW on opening night. One game doesn't say too much throughout an 82 game season and best of 7 in the playoffs, but we have shown we are capable of beating GSW on their court, who'd I assume everyone thinks we aren't as good as. IMO we have just as good of a chance as GSW does. I don't understand the mentality of us having a "puncher's chance"... to me we are right in the mix.

To answer the question, I think without TP we have significantly less of a chance to win it all. He isn't our best player (no shit lol) but he's still relied on heavily to make our offense go. When he is on, our offense is damn near unstoppable.

These.

[Robz4000]

Am I missing something then? I don't see anything related to PnR defense. I do see DRTG which would be the best gauge I assume? He is 1 point higher than D Jordan this year, 2 points higher than H Whiteside this year, 1 point higher than D Howard this year, 3 points higher than D Green. Those are all known rim protectors. Is this not accurate or varies based on how the team plays? I understand defense is no where near his specialty but I think a lot of people hype how bad he is.

nba.com/stats is used pretty heavily around here too...


Here are some Spurs-related #s 1/4 through the season..obviously a tiny sample size + starters defend other starters and bench guys defend the opposing bench, which should be taken into consideration, of course(sorry for the shitty quality, uploaded on my phone:lol)

Filtered for possessions played, too, fyi..

Top ISO defenders in the league:

http://i63.tinypic.com/14j9jyx.jpg

Worst post defenders:
http://i63.tinypic.com/c43s9.jpg

Worst pick&roll ball-handler defenders:
http://i64.tinypic.com/35ibole.jpg

Worst pick&roll roll man defenders:
http://i66.tinypic.com/j6mx45.jpg

[in2deep]

Parker maybe

but current Kawhi, Lamarcus, Gasol and Green are not

[Joseph Kony]

If Parker consistently played the way he has the last few games then definitely, but the problem is we all know he wont, hes teased us the last couple seasons putting together good stretches before pulling a butt cheek and turning back into Porky

[in2deep]

If Parker consistently played the way he has the last few games then definitely, but the problem is we all know he wont, hes teased us the last couple seasons putting together good stretches before pulling a butt cheek and turning back into Porky

to be fair so have Manu and Duncan.

and Manu just looks about done for the season

[Cry Havoc]

If this were ANY other season in NBA history, this question wouldn't need to be asked, because at no point in NBA history has a team winning 80% of their games has been considered a pretender. That's a 66 win pace, which is good for a tie for the 14th best team of all-time by record.

The idea that we have no shot at winning the title if Parker plays to his remaining potential is just ridiculous. Kawhi is a top 5 player in the league and LMA -- when motivated -- is one of the hardest big men in the league to stop.

We need Parker to play well and the bench to continue to outshine the other team's, and we are more than a tough out for anyone. To say nothing of the fact that we seem to match up extremely well with the Warriors, who no longer have the incredibly elite defense they had last year with Bogut & Green.

[Joseph Kony]

to be fair so have Manu and Duncan.

and Manu just looks about done for the season

Duncan was always fine until he fucked his only knee last season, so that doesn't matter. As for Manu, I disagree with that, advanced stats prove Manu has always been a plus for the Spurs even in his advanced years, but Parker starting and playing big minutes has killed us the last two seasons in the playoffs. I'm not a Parker hate either tbh but we have to be realistic, Parker shows flashes but the last two playoff outings were disastrous.

Manu this season is still serviceable, plenty of games he has provided a huge spark, I don't think hes done but definitely on his last legs

[Mugen]

If this were ANY other season in NBA history, this question wouldn't need to be asked, because at no point in NBA history has a team winning 80% of their games has been considered a pretender. That's a 66 win pace, which is good for a tie for the 14th best team of all-time by record.

The idea that we have no shot at winning the title if Parker plays to his remaining potential is just ridiculous. Kawhi is a top 5 player in the league and LMA -- when motivated -- is one of the hardest big men in the league to stop.

We need Parker to play well and the bench to continue to outshine the other team's, and we are more than a tough out for anyone. To say nothing of the fact that we seem to match up extremely well with the Warriors, who no longer have the incredibly elite defense they had last year with Bogut & Green.

Aren't the Dubs top 5 in defensive efficiency this season? They are still pretty good on that end tbh.

[Cry Havoc]

Aren't the Dubs top 5 in defensive efficiency this season? They are still pretty good on that end tbh.

Last year I think they were at one point among the best defenses of all time. Last time I checked they were 10th-11th. Now they're tied for 2nd with us in DE and 5th in DRTG with 104.32 (Spurs are first with 99.55).

So yes, still very very good, but not at the echelon that they were. Losing Bogut did affect them, especially when you consider that their defense should be even better given the incredible offense they boast should severely curtail transition opportunities for the other team.

[Chews]

nba.com/stats is used pretty heavily around here too

Wow, thank you for all that. When I get some time I'll have to go check those out and see if they're trending up (hopefully). Again, thank you for the info!

[DarrinS]

There was a stretch in last nights' game against the Raptors where he was playing high level. He was collapsing the defense and finding open shooters. And those open shooters were knocking them down. Some of the ball movement was almost a flashback to 2014. When the Spurs play like that, they are hard to beat.

[gambit1990]

the last four games have been against scrub ass teams.

[spurs10]

They were contenders before. Now they just have more breathing room.


I don't understand the pessimism regarding the Spurs' chance to win it all on this board. We are right on par with CLE who just beat GSW just as we beat GSW on opening night. One game doesn't say too much throughout an 82 game season and best of 7 in the playoffs, but we have shown we are capable of beating GSW on their court, who'd I assume everyone thinks we aren't as good as. IMO we have just as good of a chance as GSW does. I don't understand the mentality of us having a "puncher's chance"... to me we are right in the mix.

To answer the question, I think without TP we have significantly less of a chance to win it all. He isn't our best player (no shit lol) but he's still relied on heavily to make our offense go. When he is on, our offense is damn near unstoppable. I'm with Bill Mc on these two posts. We've always had a chance and one that will only improve if our health holds out- especially the older guys for obvious reasons.

[gospursgojas]

Another Parker thread

[gambit1990]

and his defense isn't going to get better :lol

[TXstbobcat]

Another Parker thread

There must be a damn daily quota for starting Parker threads.

[Kawhitstorm]

Deron Williams is averaging 16 & 7 on 45%/40%/92% shooting for the past 15 games:wakeup

[coachmac87]

Spurs have all the pieces that can win the title..

Size
Shooting
Versatility
Depth
Star Power

Only problem is unlike the other 2 top teams they've dealt with injuries and have had to deal with 7 new players and losing a Top 5 presence of all time..yet despite all that they're still in striking distance to own top record in league. The next measuring stick will be against Cleveland..if Spurs compete or beat them I think that puts this teams confidence to another level.

But SpursTalk will always be in full panic mode

[elemento]

Parker is not the only problem

Spurs still struggle against athletic teams and the starting front-court is soft and a complete liability defending the pick and roll. No wonder the Clippers have our number. This team simply can't afford having a single guy guy sucking during the playoffs in order to win another ring. GS can afford having one of their BIG 4 having a shit day and they can still win. Cavs totally rely on Lebron and the rest of the teams are fucking fool's gold. SA is pretty much the only team that can screw another GS/Cavs Final. In a good day I think SA can beat anyone in the NBA. At the same, it wouldn't be a complete surprise if they lose to the Clips or even Houston in the 2nd round.

[SAGirl]

They need all their top dogs healthy and playing well. I think they are built to not be so vulnerable if Tony is injured or out but they are so much better when he is playing well and any team wants to be at their very best in the playoffs...

[skulls138]

I think Parker still has to be better still but really I want to see Pau do better on D and on the boards. What good is Parker being good if other teams are getting offensive rebounds? Age is one thing but not doing your part on D or screening or boxing out is just bad. BTW, I like what LA is doing though in that area lately, which had been my complaint.

[Chews]

Parker is not the only problem

Spurs still struggle against athletic teams and the starting front-court is soft and a complete liability defending the pick and roll. No wonder the Clippers have our number. This team simply can't afford having a single guy guy sucking during the playoffs in order to win another ring. GS can afford having one of their BIG 4 having a shit day and they can still win. Cavs totally rely on Lebron and the rest of the teams are fucking fool's gold. SA is pretty much the only team that can screw another GS/Cavs Final. In a good day I think SA can beat anyone in the NBA. At the same, it wouldn't be a complete surprise if they lose to the Clips or even Houston in the 2nd round.

I think if one of GSW's big 4 has a bad game, one of them has to have a really good game to make up for it. I don't see Curry, Green, and Durant having mediocre games to their standards while Klay has a shit game and they still win easily. Obviously they can still win, but I think you're implying they could do it easily.

[GSH]

If this were ANY other season in NBA history, this question wouldn't need to be asked, because at no point in NBA history has a team winning 80% of their games has been considered a pretender. That's a 66 win pace, which is good for a tie for the 14th best team of all-time by record.

The numbers add up. The problem has been that this team has had two big weaknesses that could be exploited by top-tier teams - the 1 and the 5. Being weak at both of those positions is too much to overcome beyond the second round of the playoffs, IMO. There is no doubt that Tony has been playing a different game lately. The premise of the thread is that Tony is able to keep up this level of play indefinitely. Then, yeah, that changes the calculus.

Can he do it? That's a subject for a different thread. But at least it would give the team a shot at a path through the playoffs. It doesn't change the fact that Pau has been an absolute pylon on defense on a lot of nights. Maybe most nights. He's not just a weak spot on D - he is a huge gaping hole. So it's still possible for the right matchup to knock the Spurs out in the second round or WCF.

I stand by what I said since preseason. Without Parker playing at this level, plus Pau's lethargic defense? There's no realistic path through to a Championship, without key injuries to a couple of opponents. But Tony isn't the only bright spot. Danny has been hitting some 3's lately, and that makes a big difference. Manu has been playing some awesome minutes, when the team really needed him, and even last night he didn't have anyone calling him "Turnobili". That's a big plus. I won't even mention Kyle, Simmons, or Murray because I don't feel like getting into any pissing contests tonight. But none of the other guys would be enough to put them over the top. They either need Parker to play at a high level, or Pau to defend much better to have anything but a fluke shot at a championship.

[Hoops Czar]

They were contenders before. Now they just have more breathing room.

No foresight needed here. If Tony doesn't play well, the Spurs have zero shot at a championship (see 2015 and 2016 season). Paddy stats doesn't change that narrative no matter how well he plays.

[SAGirl]

The numbers add up. The problem has been that this team has had two big weaknesses that could be exploited by top-tier teams - the 1 and the 5. Being weak at both of those positions is too much to overcome beyond the second round of the playoffs, IMO. There is no doubt that Tony has been playing a different game lately. The premise of the thread is that Tony is able to keep up this level of play indefinitely. Then, yeah, that changes the calculus.

Can he do it? That's a subject for a different thread. But at least it would give the team a shot at a path through the playoffs. It doesn't change the fact that Pau has been an absolute pylon on defense on a lot of nights. Maybe most nights. He's not just a weak spot on D - he is a huge gaping hole. So it's still possible for the right matchup to knock the Spurs out in the second round or WCF.

I stand by what I said since preseason. Without Parker playing at this level, plus Pau's lethargic defense? There's no realistic path through to a Championship, without key injuries to a couple of opponents. But Tony isn't the only bright spot. Danny has been hitting some 3's lately, and that makes a big difference. Manu has been playing some awesome minutes, when the team really needed him, and even last night he didn't have anyone calling him "Turnobili". That's a big plus. I won't even mention Kyle, Simmons, or Murray because I don't feel like getting into any pissing contests tonight. But none of the other guys would be enough to put them over the top. They either need Parker to play at a high level, or Pau to defend much better to have anything but a fluke shot at a championship.
I am not that negative although I recognize the team's weaknesses and don't dispute them... but I have hope.

[Cry Havoc]

The numbers add up. The problem has been that this team has had two big weaknesses that could be exploited by top-tier teams - the 1 and the 5. Being weak at both of those positions is too much to overcome beyond the second round of the playoffs, IMO. There is no doubt that Tony has been playing a different game lately. The premise of the thread is that Tony is able to keep up this level of play indefinitely. Then, yeah, that changes the calculus.

Can he do it? That's a subject for a different thread. But at least it would give the team a shot at a path through the playoffs. It doesn't change the fact that Pau has been an absolute pylon on defense on a lot of nights. Maybe most nights. He's not just a weak spot on D - he is a huge gaping hole. So it's still possible for the right matchup to knock the Spurs out in the second round or WCF.

I stand by what I said since preseason. Without Parker playing at this level, plus Pau's lethargic defense? There's no realistic path through to a Championship, without key injuries to a couple of opponents. But Tony isn't the only bright spot. Danny has been hitting some 3's lately, and that makes a big difference. Manu has been playing some awesome minutes, when the team really needed him, and even last night he didn't have anyone calling him "Turnobili". That's a big plus. I won't even mention Kyle, Simmons, or Murray because I don't feel like getting into any pissing contests tonight. But none of the other guys would be enough to put them over the top. They either need Parker to play at a high level, or Pau to defend much better to have anything but a fluke shot at a championship.

I see it a little differently. I think if this team was playing in the 90s they would be running teams completely off the court. I think the competition in the NBA has risen drastically (and the Spurs are still a 65 win team), meaning that our "weaknesses" only look like that in the current zeitgeist of the league.

[GSH]

I see it a little differently. I think if this team was playing in the 90s they would be running teams completely off the court. I think the competition in the NBA has risen drastically (and the Spurs are still a 65 win team), meaning that our "weaknesses" only look like that in the current zeitgeist of the league.


Well I can't quote stats at other people, and then ignore them when they go against me. The win pace says that they are an exceptional team.

Personally, I don't think that the competition has risen dramatically in the NBA. I think the talent is concentrated even more at the top. And if you look at the Spurs' losses, near-losses, and even the games that they have had to come back from first half disasters? I think you see what could kill them in the playoffs. The Orlando game is a good example. Tony with 2 PTS, 3 AST, and 4 TO's. And Ibaka, Biyombo, and Vucevic owned the middle. And I think the top 3-4 teams in each conference will be able to exploit that, if something doesn't change.

Still... I can't deny that they have an .800 winning percentage. And they are just a couple of agonizing missed shots at the final buzzers from being tied with Golden State. You've got all the objective evidence on your side.

[ElNono]

It's the wrong question, in a way, IMO. I think focusing on what Tony can give you setting up the offense is fair, but when it comes to the playoffs, the real issue is the mismatch, or better said, how can the Spurs effectively hide him on defense so he can still be there for the offense. And that's a puzzle that's much more complicated to solve with the current team makeup. The easiest, most obvious solution, which Pop has tried at times in previous seasons is simply play Manu. But then this becomes a Manu problem, and stops being a Parker problem.

This is not a new problem either, realistically the team has had it since Tim stopped being a phenomenal anchor many seasons ago. Against most teams or bad coaches (see Terry Stotts), you can find a guy to hide him on or don't even have to bother since they won't go at him, but against good coaches (see Carslile in '14, Doc in '15, Billy Donovan in '16), they're going to go mercilessly at him to break down the defense. Then you gotta hope Manu has at least something left in the tank on D, and that's a much more difficult question (lol 38 year old Manu defending Westbrook for long stretches last playoffs).

The fact that Pau hasn't really looked any better on defense than Tim without any legs just doesn't inspire much confidence either. But then again, the season is long, and per the usual, you always need a stroke of luck here or there to win a championship, so there's always a chance.

[ElNono]

I mean, with the current flaws on defense, this team should be more centered towards an explosive offense and trying to outscore teams (a la Pringles), much like Pop tried to do from 2009 until Kawhi came around. Back then our obvious flaw was perimeter defense already, after Bowen's departure/retirement. Even though we were winning 50+ games a season, we really couldn't sniff a championship playing that way. Now you could shore up the perimeter a bit, but Manu is older and it's more difficult to orchestrate the offense with an all-defense lineup, and on top of that, rim protection is flaky. That's why I think Pop (wisely?) went more towards an ISO offense for Kawhi/LMA. It makes sense with the roster makeup, but it makes the team completely top heavy, and leaves much less room for error.

[GSH]

It's the wrong question, in a way, IMO. I think focusing on what Tony can give you setting up the offense is fair, but when it comes to the playoffs, the real issue is the mismatch, or better said, how can the Spurs effectively hide him on defense so he can still be there for the offense. And that's a puzzle that's much more complicated to solve with the current team makeup. The easiest, most obvious solution, which Pop has tried at times in previous seasons is simply play Manu. But then this becomes a Manu problem, and stops being a Parker problem.

This is not a new problem either, realistically the team has had it since Tim stopped being a phenomenal anchor many seasons ago. Against most teams or bad coaches (see Terry Stotts), you can find a guy to hide him on or don't even have to bother since they won't go at him, but against good coaches (see Carslile in '14, Doc in '15, Billy Donovan in '16), they're going to go mercilessly at him to break down the defense. Then you gotta hope Manu has at least something left in the tank on D, and that's a much more difficult question.

The fact that Pau hasn't really looked any better on defense than Tim without any legs just doesn't inspire much confidence either. But then again, the season is long, and per the usual, you always need a stroke of luck here or there to win a championship, so there's always a chance.


That's about as on-point as it gets.

But I will say that if Tim quit being a phenomenal anchor many seasons ago, he was still a pretty-damned-good anchor up until December of last season. He was really looking amazing on defense to start last season. And his defensive stand against the Clippers in the '15 Playoffs remains one of my favorite Duncan memories. I've mentioned it before, but he single-handedly held off those two big monsters on the Clippers, which shouldn't have been possible for a younger big man. It got overshadowed by the first round exit, but it was absolutely heroic.

I'd go so far as to say that Pau has not even been as good on D as the post-December Tim of last year. Tim was struggling to score, even before that injury. But afterward, he was still more of an anchor in the middle than Pau.

[ElNono]

That's about as on-point as it gets.

But I will say that if Tim quit being a phenomenal anchor many seasons ago, he was still a pretty-damned-good anchor up until December of last season. He was really looking amazing on defense to start last season. And his defensive stand against the Clippers in the '15 Playoffs remains one of my favorite Duncan memories. I've mentioned it before, but he single-handedly held off those two big monsters on the Clippers, which shouldn't have been possible for a younger big man. It got overshadowed by the first round exit, but it was absolutely heroic.

I'd go so far as to say that Pau has not even been as good on D as the post-December Tim of last year. Tim was struggling to score, even before that injury. But afterward, he was still more of an anchor in the middle than Pau.

That's what I'm saying. It's not an indictment on Tim, it's the fact that this Pau doesn't even look like no-legged Tim post-December last year.

Then there's the Dedmon angle. But, will Pop go to him early and often enough when the situation arises? That's the million dollar question, and it's fairly unclear at this point.

[AFMadison]

IMO yes. This years Parker is playing much better consistantly. Saying it's impossible that he's better because he's a year older is idiotic. This years Parker is much more focused and positively aggressive.

[Chinook]

Parker's defensive issues are being massively overstated here. If teams want to change their gameplans to go after Tony's man, more power to them. Like for GS, I'd love to see Klay get more touches than Curry or Durant. Gone are the days of having guys like Beli who the Spurs had to make sure stayed as far away from the action as possible. As I've said, Tony's actually done his job in the post-season recently, even if that job is to be the designated weakness to direct the flow of the opponent's offense.

As for Gasol (and LMA), it's still a matter of effort. Pau is a hell of a rim-protector when motivated. I think Pop needs to stagger Gasol and LMA as much as possible, but if Pau is truly locked in during the post-season, people are going to be surprised with how good he looks.

[TheGreatYacht]

Parker's defensive issues are being massively overstated here. If teams want to change their gameplans to go after Tony's man, more power to them. Like for GS, I'd love to see Klay get more touches than Curry or Durant. Gone are the days of having guys like Beli who the Spurs had to make sure stayed as far away from the action as possible. As I've said, Tony's actually done his job in the post-season recently, even if that job is to be the designated weakness to direct the flow of the opponent's offense.

As for Gasol (and LMA), it's still a matter of effort. Pau is a hell of a rim-protector when motivated. I think Pop needs to stagger Gasol and LMA as much as possible, but if Pau is truly locked in during the post-season, people are going to be surprised with how good he looks.
Pretty much this

[Amuseddaysleeper]

The problem is the Spurs have VERY little margin for error. They can't afford LMA shooting a low percentage or Kawhi not playing like an MVP. There just isn't enough consistency from enough players to win a title. You need a big 3 in this era to go all the way and the Spurs have a big 1 and 1/2. It's still a superstars league at the end of the day.

[ElNono]

Parker's defensive issues are being massively overstated here. If teams want to change their gameplans to go after Tony's man, more power to them. Like for GS, I'd love to see Klay get more touches than Curry or Durant. Gone are the days of having guys like Beli who the Spurs had to make sure stayed as far away from the action as possible. As I've said, Tony's actually done his job in the post-season recently, even if that job is to be the designated weakness to direct the flow of the opponent's offense.

They only need to make Tony's man be part of the offensive set. It can be just as simple as having Tony's guy come over and set a screen. In your example, Klay doesn't need to be handling the ball or finish the play, he can come over, screen Danny, then you have Tony having to cover for a Curry penetration or shot, and the help that requires, and the ensuing breakdown. It's difficult at this stage for Tony to fight through screens, be able to always go above the screen, challenge the shot, have the lateral movement to keep up with guys like Westbrook, Curry or CP3 penetrating (Manu too), etc. He is targeted because he almost always requires help (especially on the P&R), and that triggers the help the helper, and it's likely the easiest path to get the Spurs defense scrambling.

Even if you didn't target him directly on defense, there's a bunch of other strategies that teams use, like to make his guy run a marathon on the court (like the Spurs used to do with Tony when he was younger and the other team would hide somebody on him) and then it's difficult to ask Tony to be fresh to run the offense. It's really an obvious mismatch to exploit.

That said, it doesn't mean it's the end of the world. Sometimes you have to pick your poison, and you pick right or luck out. That's why the games are played.

[Amuseddaysleeper]

I see it a little differently. I think if this team was playing in the 90s they would be running teams completely off the court. I think the competition in the NBA has risen drastically (and the Spurs are still a 65 win team), meaning that our "weaknesses" only look like that in the current zeitgeist of the league.

This is the worst era in terms of parity in the league. There are more shit teams than ever, this year's Spurs team is probably the worst since 2011. In any other era this team is closer to a 6th seed. We have the West conference in the worst shape it has been in the past 16-17 years. This is a paper tiger team, much like last year's team. There are way too many flaws for this team to win a title. The only hope is if we get a major injury to LeBron and Durant.

It is what it is.

[ElNono]

I agree the league is generally crap, but I'm not that pessimistic as Amused. I've seen less talented teams catch fire at the right time, get the right breaks and win it all (No disrespect to Dirk but the Mavs come to mind, for example). I definitely would be much more confident if we defended better (and I don't disagree with Chinook about Pau's proficiency defending the rim with more effort, but it's hard to know what you're going to get when you don't see it every night). I loved Spurs teams that needed a stop and more times than not were able to get it, and not by pure luck.

[Amuseddaysleeper]

I agree the league is generally crap, but I'm not that pessimistic as Amused. I've seen less talented teams catch fire at the right time, get the right breaks and win it all (No disrespect to Dirk but the Mavs come to mind, for example). I definitely would be much more confident if we defended better (and I don't disagree with Chinook about Pau's proficiency defending the rim with more effort, but it's hard to know what you're going to get when you don't see it every night). I loved Spurs teams that needed a stop and more times than not were able to get it, and not by pure luck.

I don't think anyone is as pessimistic as me :lol

However, while the league is crap I'm not sold on this year's Spurs team at all. This is the same team that had LMA go off for 45 points in a playoff game...and lose. I also don't trust Pau defensively and while it is nice to see TP pick it up lately, we all know at his age this just isn't sustainable.

This is a team that struggled at home with Portland and Phoenix (although Portland did put in an admirable effort against GS earlier tonight). The Spurs can't afford to have half the team struggling, and I don't trust that LMA will be a beast every night, that Pop will extend Dedmon's minutes over Pau's in the playoffs, and as much as I love Kawhi, we have seen him have some bad games over the past two seasons in the playoffs. Not a slight against him, but he needs to be in MVP form every night in the playoffs if they want to beat the Warriors or Cavs. Spurs will still struggle with speedy PG's, and put this team against any team with solid bigs and they'll struggle.


It's only January and I do think this team has yet to hit their ceiling, but consistency especially in the playoffs has been in issue for this team over the past couple years, and with no Duncan I think this is a transition year for the Spurs and most likely a second round exit. No shame in that.

In regards to the Mavs, Dirk had one of the greatest performances in NBA playoff history. I don't think Kawhi or LMA will have that. I agree those Mavs caught fire at the right time, but I think both the Warriors and Cavs are better than any of those 2011 teams outside of Dallas in those playoffs.

[Arcadian]

Parker is not the only problem

Spurs still struggle against athletic teams and the starting front-court is soft and a complete liability defending the pick and roll. No wonder the Clippers have our number. This team simply can't afford having a single guy guy sucking during the playoffs in order to win another ring. GS can afford having one of their BIG 4 having a shit day and they can still win. Cavs totally rely on Lebron and the rest of the teams are fucking fool's gold. SA is pretty much the only team that can screw another GS/Cavs Final. In a good day I think SA can beat anyone in the NBA. At the same, it wouldn't be a complete surprise if they lose to the Clips or even Houston in the 2nd round.

This is an excellent balanced take. You make a great point about margin of error. The Spurs have an incredibly high ceiling, but they have very little room for error before that ceiling comes crashing down. The Warriors, on the other hand, have three players capable of scoring 60 points. Fuck. Even if Curry and Thompson have off shooting nights, oops! There's still Durant going off for 60. Fucking ridiculous. The Spurs can't do that. They need everyone firing on all cylinders to win the title. Yet, it's still totally possible.

To sum it up, the Spurs have a very high ceiling, but they also have a mediocre floor. That's why they are so difficult to predict, and that's why we have so much disagreement on this topic.

[daledondale]

There are biggest problems. What concerns me it's the defense, Pau is even worst defending of what i thought, Tony is the same Tony in defense, we're ugly in terms of defending rebounds, and a couple of young boys aren't stepping up like we wish (Simmons, Anderson). Only Dedmon shows some good stuff, and Lee was is a really nice surprise, good contributor.

[Brazil]

One cannot expect current Parker to keep up like that tbh... I mean a 15-20 pts 4-7 apg at .55 - .60 efficiency is a great stretch of 5-6 games but this is that a stretch.

What we should reasonnably expect is:

- Parker good enough to make opponents pay for letting him play, the fact he is still capable to pour +20 pts on 10/18 efficiency is already a great news
- Keep TOV low and feed LMA/Pau on P&R
- Keep healthy amount of penetration to open the 3s for Kawhi/Danny
- keep doin what he does on defense, he is obviously struggling one on one but as part of defense system he is doin it right tbh and putting effort on it

[SASdynasty!]

Tony has always been one of the best creators in the game because he's got all the weapons and you can't guard everything. He can still beat almost anyone off the dribble and get to the basket. Or he can stop short with a floater. Or he can misdirect and hit midrange. Or he can hit spot-up 3s when you back off. Add to all of that the fact that he can run the pick and roll as good as almost anyone. He gets the ball moved around the perimeter when it's the right play (evidenced by his hockey-assists). And he still is one of the better penetrate and kick driving point guards. Healthy Parker makes lots of fringe teams contenders.

[TheGreatYacht]

Head of the Snake doin Head of the Snake things, tbh..

[Brazil]

If dude could just increased his 3 pts attempts tbh.... for the dumb asses calling him selfish and arrogant that's pretty much the contrary... dude lacks self confidence sometimes... he is shooting again .40 of his 3s but just try 1 per game... 3 seasons in a row that he is shooting better than .40... what the fuck is he waiting to shoot 2/3 per games tbh ?

[Chinook]

If dude could just increased his 3 pts attempts tbh.... for the dumb asses calling him selfish and arrogant that's pretty much the contrary... dude lacks self confidence sometimes... he is shooting again .40 of his 3s but just try 1 per game... 3 seasons in a row that he is shooting better than .40... what the fuck is he waiting to shoot 2/3 per games tbh ?

It's not just him this year. LMA and Pau are first and third in 3P% respectively, and they barely take any. If those percentages mostly held up, the Spurs could absolutely shoot with anybody.

[Brazil]

It's not just him this year. LMA and Pau are first and third in 3P% respectively, and they barely take any. If those percentages mostly held up, the Spurs could absolutely shoot with anybody.

with higher volume comes lower efficiency but I'd take that in a heartbeat tbh

In his fifth year, Parker and PATFO decided Tony sucked at shooting 3s, they removed completely this shoot of his game even though it was not that bad tbh

[MaNu4Tres]

It's not just him this year. LMA and Pau are first and third in 3P% respectively, and they barely take any. If those percentages mostly held up, the Spurs could absolutely shoot with anybody.

I wish LA and Gasol PnPd more from the 3 instead of the 40% long/midrange two. It would improve the offense if they did it more imo.

[Seventyniner]

I wish LA and Gasol PnPd more from the 3 instead of the 40% long/midrange two. It would improve the offense if they did it more imo.

Absolutely.

[Seventyniner]

Well I can't quote stats at other people, and then ignore them when they go against me.

You must be new here.....

[cutewizard]

If this were ANY other season in NBA history, this question wouldn't need to be asked, because at no point in NBA history has a team winning 80% of their games has been considered a pretender. That's a 66 win pace, which is good for a tie for the 14th best team of all-time by record.

The idea that we have no shot at winning the title if Parker plays to his remaining potential is just ridiculous. Kawhi is a top 5 player in the league and LMA -- when motivated -- is one of the hardest big men in the league to stop.


We need Parker to play well and the bench to continue to outshine the other team's, and we are more than a tough out for anyone. To say nothing of the fact that we seem to match up extremely well with the Warriors, who no longer have the incredibly elite defense they had last year with Bogut & Green.


agree

:claw

[gambit1990]

Parker's defensive issues are being massively overstated here.
:lmao

coming from the same person who thought david west could be a starter this season :lol

[dabom]

:lmao

coming from the same person who thought david west could be a starter this season :lol

:lol

[ElNono]

If dude could just increased his 3 pts attempts tbh.... for the dumb asses calling him selfish and arrogant that's pretty much the contrary... dude lacks self confidence sometimes... he is shooting again .40 of his 3s but just try 1 per game... 3 seasons in a row that he is shooting better than .40... what the fuck is he waiting to shoot 2/3 per games tbh ?


It's not just him this year. LMA and Pau are first and third in 3P% respectively, and they barely take any. If those percentages mostly held up, the Spurs could absolutely shoot with anybody.


I wish LA and Gasol PnPd more from the 3 instead of the 40% long/midrange two. It would improve the offense if they did it more imo.

This is part of the idea I was mentioning earlier, considering where this team ranks defensively, and that they legitimately might not be able to turn into a top 5 defense: just go for outgunning the other team.

Then you end up with live by the 3, die by the 3, but realistically it might not be a worse proposition than just losing because you can't stop anybody and can't score enough points.

[Chinook]

This is part of the idea I was mentioning earlier, considering where this team ranks defensively, and that they legitimately might not be able to turn into a top 5 defense: just go for outgunning the other team.

Then you end up with live by the 3, die by the 3, but realistically it might not be a worse proposition than just losing because you can't stop anybody and can't score enough points.

The Spurs just moved into first place for DRTG. They don't have to worry about outgunning teams right now.

[Chinook]

:lmao

coming from the same person who thought david west could be a starter this season :lol

Lol, you called for a truce months ago and come slinking back into here after getting your shit pushed in by everyone else.

[gambit1990]

Lol, you called for a truce months ago
:lmao

i never called for a truce, i said i would do my best to reframe from responding to your posts. because they were along the lines of "david west could be starter."

[ElNono]

The Spurs just moved into first place for DRTG. They don't have to worry about outgunning teams right now.

Good point. I haven't looked it up in a couple of weeks, good to see the team climbing up there. And our SOS is not terrible, despite we haven't played the Cavs and the Dubs only once, which is encouraging.

[Chinook]

Good point. I haven't looked it up in a couple of weeks, good to see the team climbing up there. And our SOS is not terrible, despite we haven't played the Cavs and the Dubs only once, which is encouraging.

Getting three cracks at Houston already has been helping.

[Chinook]

:lmao

i never called for a truce, i said i would do my best to reframe from responding to your posts. because they were along the lines of "david west could be starter."

I didn't ask how you rationalized it afterwards. I'm just saying, it's funny that you're trying to come back now.

[GSH]

However, while the league is crap I'm not sold on this year's Spurs team at all. This is the same team that had LMA go off for 45 points in a playoff game...and lose. I also don't trust Pau defensively and while it is nice to see TP pick it up lately, we all know at his age this just isn't sustainable.


When Pau first came into the league, some of the NBA bigs made some cocky statements about how they would handle him. (Shaq and Mourning in particular, if I remember right.) He played with a chip on his shoulder, and they quit talking about him. He's capable of being a good defender, but it seemed like that quit being a priority for him after a few years. I know he's older, but I still think he could be a lot better on D if he was motivated to do it. He became Memphis' all time leading rebounder in something like his 5th season. One of my biggest complaints this year is that I've watched him loaf on rebounding - just not make any effort at all to go after them sometimes. None.

I thought Parker was totally shot, but he's shown that he still has something left in the tank. In short spells, at least, he can still get the corner and take it to the rim.

Dedmon has some problem with fouls. I've commented that quite a few of them have actually been smart fouls - stopping auto-buckets, when the defense breaks down. But that doesn't change the fact that he's still picking up too many. He's got to learn that sometimes he has to give up two points, to be sure he can stay in the game.

IF:

If Parker can play enough minutes at a reasonably high level.
If Pau would commit to defense, and actually give something like 100% - even if it's in limited minutes.
If Danny keeps getting back to his old shooting form.
If Dedmon can stay out of foul trouble.
If Simmons improves his decision-making just a little bit, and learns to let it fly when he's wide open.
If Manu can stay healthy and rested.
If Murray can benefit from regular season minutes enough to at least be able to do cleanup duty in the playoffs.
If Kyle... oh, hell, I don't even want to get started on that one. Just play your best D and don't fuck up too badly, Kyle.

COULD they contend? If everything on that list came true, then without a doubt. But not without the first two things on the list, IMO. I think the Spurs have enough raw talent, and a shitload of experience and basketball IQ. But Parker can't be shot, and Pau can't be complacent on D. Without those two guys playing at a higher level than, say, last year? They have zero chance of actually winning it all.

We're seeing a different Tony. Show me a different Pau, and then I'll believe. But not until then. Otherwise, I'll still cheer for them, right up until the second round exit.

[gambit1990]

I didn't ask how you rationalized it afterwards. I'm just saying, it's funny that you're trying to come back now.
i didn't rationalize it afterwards, i expressed it in that thread.

anyways, it was just too hard for me to ignore: "Parker's defensive issues are being massively overstated here." i would've called anyone out for that.

[Cry Havoc]

:lmao

coming from the same person who thought david west could be a starter this season :lol

I guess it's easy to never be wrong when you never have an actual take about basketball though, right? 90% of your posts to this forum are about Parker. Pretty sad dude.

[Chinook]

i didn't rationalize it afterwards, i expressed it in that thread.

anyways, it was just too hard for me to ignore: "Parker's defensive issues are being massively overstated here." i would've called anyone out for that.

Parker's been considered a bad defender for years, but he's never been the reason the Spurs struggled in a series. People like Klay and Barnes have gone HAM on Tony, but that was what the Spurs wanted. It's not like Parker gives up a bunch of threes, which is really the concern. He's ahead of both Green and Leonard in 3P% allowed this season.

[Amuseddaysleeper]

When Pau first came into the league, some of the NBA bigs made some cocky statements about how they would handle him. (Shaq and Mourning in particular, if I remember right.) He played with a chip on his shoulder, and they quit talking about him. He's capable of being a good defender, but it seemed like that quit being a priority for him after a few years. I know he's older, but I still think he could be a lot better on D if he was motivated to do it. He became Memphis' all time leading rebounder in something like his 5th season. One of my biggest complaints this year is that I've watched him loaf on rebounding - just not make any effort at all to go after them sometimes. None.

I thought Parker was totally shot, but he's shown that he still has something left in the tank. In short spells, at least, he can still get the corner and take it to the rim.

Dedmon has some problem with fouls. I've commented that quite a few of them have actually been smart fouls - stopping auto-buckets, when the defense breaks down. But that doesn't change the fact that he's still picking up too many. He's got to learn that sometimes he has to give up two points, to be sure he can stay in the game.

IF:

If Parker can play enough minutes at a reasonably high level.
If Pau would commit to defense, and actually give something like 100% - even if it's in limited minutes.
If Danny keeps getting back to his old shooting form.
If Dedmon can stay out of foul trouble.
If Simmons improves his decision-making just a little bit, and learns to let it fly when he's wide open.
If Manu can stay healthy and rested.
If Murray can benefit from regular season minutes enough to at least be able to do cleanup duty in the playoffs.
If Kyle... oh, hell, I don't even want to get started on that one. Just play your best D and don't fuck up too badly, Kyle.

COULD they contend? If everything on that list came true, then without a doubt. But not without the first two things on the list, IMO. I think the Spurs have enough raw talent, and a shitload of experience and basketball IQ. But Parker can't be shot, and Pau can't be complacent on D. Without those two guys playing at a higher level than, say, last year? They have zero chance of actually winning it all.

We're seeing a different Tony. Show me a different Pau, and then I'll believe. But not until then. Otherwise, I'll still cheer for them, right up until the second round exit.

GSH with the goods as always. Great post :tu Unlike the Warriors, I don't think the Spurs have really hit their ceiling/maxed out with what they can do. So that's something to see moving forward.

[GSH]

I guess it's easy to never be wrong when you never have an actual take about basketball though, right? 90% of your posts to this forum are about Parker. Pretty sad dude.


What are you talking about? He constantly starts threads that consist of a thread title, and a ROFL emoji inside. That's not enough of a basketball take for you? I don't understand how ESPN hasn't picked him up as a columnist.

[Amuseddaysleeper]

Parker's been considered a bad defender for years, but he's never been the reason the Spurs struggled in a series. People like Klay and Barnes have gone HAM on Tony, but that was what the Spurs wanted. It's not like Parker gives up a bunch of threes, which is really the concern. He's ahead of both Green and Leonard in 3P% allowed this season.


But Chinook, don't you think Parker playing far too many minutes in the Clipper series from 2015 was part of the problem in that series? I know he gets a lot of hate on here, but Mills definitely should have been getting more minutes than Tony in that series. The final 6 minutes of Game 7 from Parker were an abomination

[Chinook]

But Chinook, don't you think Parker playing far too many minutes in the Clipper series from 2015 was part of the problem in that series? I know he gets a lot of hate on here, but Mills definitely should have been getting more minutes than Tony in that series. The final 6 minutes of Game 7 from Parker were an abomination

Parker and Splitter being hurt doomed the Spurs. They probably win in five with a healthy roster.

[bklynspursfan]

Parker and Splitter being hurt doomed the Spurs. They probably win in five with a healthy roster.

Agreed. Patty was 2-6 that game, so his shot was off. Matt Barnes outplaying Kawhi that game pretty much did us in

[GSH]

If he can keep this up, I sure as hell like their chances better than before.

Then again, it was Denver. :lol