Bloomberg: Demographic headwinds

[Winehole23]

Without an improvement in productivity or an influx of people into the workforce, GDP can't accelerate.


Like many things, including business formation, productivity and capital spending, the expansion in U.S. residents shows sustained damage from the financial crisis of 2008-2009. The American population rose by 0.7 percent to 324 million people last year, according to an estimate released (http://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2016/cb16-tps158.html) by the Census Bureau in December. That matched 2013's figure for being the smallest rise since 1937, when the country was struggling with the Great Depression, according to analysis by Thomas Costerg at Standard Chartered Plc.

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Source: Standard Chartered Plc


"This is a stark reminder that the ongoing productivity challenge seen since the global financial crisis is compounded by continuing demographic headwinds," Costerg, Standard Chartered's senior economist in New York, wrote in a Jan. 10 report.


Since the last recession ended in 2009, the U.S. economy has expanded about 2 percent a year while population gains averaged 0.76 percent — a slowdown from 0.93 percent in the 10 years to 2008, Costerg calculated.https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-11/1930s-like-demographic-headwinds-are-restraining-the-u-s-economy

[CosmicCowboy]

Exactly. 4% growth is unrealistic with an aging baby boom population worried about retirement and not spending money like they did 20 years ago. The bubble has to work it's way through the snake.

[boutons_deux]

Thanks, bankster criminals (Mnuchin included)

[SpursforSix]

It'll get fixed with robots and stuff.

[z0sa]

Exactly. 4% growth is unrealistic with an aging baby boom population worried about retirement and not spending money like they did 20 years ago. The bubble has to work it's way through the snake.

The baby boomers themselves are the only anchor keeping many gen x and millenials afloat. The fat will be trimmed, already should have been in 2008 and 2009. You cant have a peak without a trough, flatlining as a generation only means those with capital gain more.

[boutons_deux]

Another big factor, probably bigger than the demographic factor, why the consumer-driven economy is and will be sluggish indefinitely is that income is denied to the bottom 99% due to flat and declining wages while the 1% suck up nearly all new gains, growth in GDP, productivity (from unearned capital, not from earned labor).

Inequality will cripple the growth of the US economy because the 99% or at least the 95% have crippled incomes to spend.

And of course, the Repug billionaires, the VRWC/1% aren't targeting inequality, except to increase it dramatically, and they will hit their target.

There's no stopping them.