With Warriors wounded, it’s time to remember the Spurs are really, really good

[Spur|n|Austin]

While the world has been fixating first on the success of the Golden State Warriors and then the status of Kevin Durant’s knee, most have overlooked one of the biggest title favorites in the NBA.

With a 17 percent (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2017-nba-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo) chance of winning the title, according to FiveThirtyEight, the San Antonio Spurs’ odds are a full 11 percentage points better than the defending-champion Cavaliers. Just think about that for a second and ask yourself why the world isn’t talking more about Gregg Popovich and Co..

Read More.. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fancy-stats/wp/2017/03/02/with-warriors-wounded-its-time-to-remember-the-spurs-are-really-really-good/?utm_term=.4eca5a3f8363)

[NameLess Scrub]

Just think about that for a second and ask yourself why the world isn’t talking more about Gregg Popovich and Co..

Read More.. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fancy-stats/wp/2017/03/02/with-warriors-wounded-its-time-to-remember-the-spurs-are-really-really-good/?utm_term=.4eca5a3f8363)

1. Austin Rivers
2. Lebron getting much needed help :cry

[spurs10]

Thanks Spurs n Austin! Best read of the day. Yeah I'm fine with flying under the radar when our defense and offense are "really, really good!"

[Blake]

While the world has been fixating first on the success of the Golden State Warriors and then the status of Kevin Durant’s knee, most have overlooked one of the biggest title favorites in the NBA.

With a 17 percent (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2017-nba-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo) chance of winning the title, according to FiveThirtyEight, the San Antonio Spurs’ odds are a full 11 percentage points better than the defending-champion Cavaliers. Just think about that for a second and ask yourself why the world isn’t talking more about Gregg Popovich and Co..

Read More.. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fancy-stats/wp/2017/03/02/with-warriors-wounded-its-time-to-remember-the-spurs-are-really-really-good/?utm_term=.4eca5a3f8363)

Hmm...I may put a Benjamin right now on the cavs to repeat with those odds

[Blake]

Well no, this says the Spurs are currently 7-1, Cavs 5-2.

http://www.sportingnews.com/nba/news/warriors-odds-kevin-durant-injury-las-vegas-betting-spurs/v1nfu2g04snq1j6bv06iippf1

[Spur|n|Austin]

Hmm...I may put a Benjamin right now on the cavs to repeat with those odds

I'm not sure why FiveThirtyEight has them so low, seems incorrect to me - guessing it's because of their CARM-elo ratings.

They also had Trump at practically 0% chance of winning the election...

[Blake]

Lol

[jhfenton]

I'm not sure why FiveThirtyEight has them so low, seems incorrect to me - guessing it's because of their CARM-elo ratings.

They also had Trump at practically 0% chance of winning the election...

No. That was almost everyone else. 538 had Trump with a closer to 20% chance of winning, and they got a lot of flack about having his chances that high.

The Spurs aren't a bad bet at 7-1 odds. The odds on the Warriors with a gimpy KD are way too low. Without KD, this year's Warriors are not the best team in the league.

[Blake]

The Spurs aren't a bad bet at 7-1 odds. The odds on the Warriors with a gimpy KD are way too low. Without KD, this year's Warriors are not the best team in the league.

People really are underestimating the warriors minus kd

[jhfenton]

People really are underestimating the warriors minus kd
I think they may be a top 3 team without KD, but they should not be favored over the Cavs or Spurs. And the distance between them and the next 3 would not be great.

[Seventyniner]

I'm not sure why FiveThirtyEight has them so low, seems incorrect to me - guessing it's because of their CARM-elo ratings.

They also had Trump at practically 0% chance of winning the election...

I watched their election prediction almost daily in the few months up to November. Clinton's chances (in their estimation) got as high as 88% at one point and was around 66% at election time.

[BillMc]

While the world has been fixating first on the success of the Golden State Warriors and then the status of Kevin Durant’s knee, most have overlooked one of the biggest title favorites in the NBA.

With a 17 percent (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2017-nba-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo) chance of winning the title, according to FiveThirtyEight, the San Antonio Spurs’ odds are a full 11 percentage points better than the defending-champion Cavaliers. Just think about that for a second and ask yourself why the world isn’t talking more about Gregg Popovich and Co..

Read More.. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fancy-stats/wp/2017/03/02/with-warriors-wounded-its-time-to-remember-the-spurs-are-really-really-good/?utm_term=.4eca5a3f8363)
:toast

[cutewizard]

Hope the Chicago Bulls win today

Goooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo BULLS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! defeat the Warriors!

[cutewizard]

91 to 85 chicago leading............

[DarrinS]

GSW loses to CHI

[YGWHI]

Nice article! A lot of good data about Spurs D and O. Thanks for posting! :toast

[YGWHI]

91 to 85 chicago leading............


GSW loses to CHI

:flag:

[spurs10]

91 to 85 chicago leading............


GSW loses to CHI :flag:

[BillMc]

91 to 85 chicago leading............


GSW loses to CHI
:bobo

[cutewizard]

the Warriors are wounded, NBA teams are like sharks smelling blood, fresh blood of a wounded god......

i suspect that this is not the last time we hear of something "unlucky" hitting gs this season, more to come


----------------------------------------------------

[Mikeanaro]

the Warriors are wounded, NBA teams are like sharks smelling blood, fresh blood of a wounded god......

i suspect that this is not the last time we hear of something "unlucky" hitting gs this season, more to come


----------------------------------------------------

Teams will give their all to beat GSW, kinda ¨are you really that good?¨

[NameLess Scrub]

Time for some media narrative about how KD is not a beta, but actually very valuable because his team lost without him.

[boutons_deux]

Spurs are just one bad ankle, or knee from joining Warriors on the DL.

Pop has always said team success determined by the luck of good health.

[Fireball]

the Spurs are good ... most of the league is very bad thats why they look really, really good ...

[Uriel]

I'm not sure why FiveThirtyEight has them so low, seems incorrect to me - guessing it's because of their CARM-elo ratings.

They also had Trump at practically 0% chance of winning the election...
CARMELO doesn't know Durant is injured.

[Uriel]

I watched their election prediction almost daily in the few months up to November. Clinton's chances (in their estimation) got as high as 88% at one point and was around 66% at election time.
Yeah, but their model gave Trump a much higher probability of winning than the models of other websites.

They were wrong, but they were the least wrong of the bunch.

[TheDoctor]

GSW loses to CHI

Won't take it as an indication.

Chicago just can't lose when playing on TNT. They got that weird and mysterious streak going.

[Horse]

People really are underestimating the warriors minus kd

No one expected Durant to improve them more on D than on offense. Without him on D they are fucked.

[r0drig0lac]

Won't take it as an indication.

Chicago just can't lose when playing on TNT. They got that weird and mysterious streak going.

nah...without Bogut illegal screens and Durant in mvp mode, golden state are extremely vulnerable

[Old School 44]

Can't imagine at this point, the Spurs having a better chance to win the Finals than the Cavs.
To win the title, you first have to get there. And the Cavs, playing in the East, pretty much have a bye to the Finals.

[Solid D]

It's a very nice article indeed. However, the Spurs are entering what I believe to be the toughest part of their schedule - between now and the end of the regular season. They have to play vs. OKC twice on the road, Golden State twice, including two days after the Spurs play vs. Cleveland, Memphis twice, Utah twice, Atlanta, Houston, and the Clippers among their other opponents. So, I would be extremely thrilled and surprised if they finished with 63 wins.

[exstatic]

People really are underestimating the warriors minus kd

This year's Warriors team minus KD is just like last year's team...minus Bogut,Barnes,Ezeli,Rush,Barbosa,and Speights. They had to gut their roster to sign the guy who's now on crutches. Without him, they're compromised.

[BillMc]

This year's Warriors team minus KD is just like last year's team...minus Bogut,Barnes,Ezeli,Rush,Barbosa,and Speights. They had to gut their roster to sign the guy who's now on crutches. Without him, they're compromised.

Well said.

[ace3g]

Western Conference



W (http://www.espn.com/nba/standings/_/sort/wins)
L (http://www.espn.com/nba/standings/_/sort/losses)
PCT (http://www.espn.com/nba/standings/_/dir/asc)
GB (http://www.espn.com/nba/standings/_/sort/gamesbehind)
HOME
ROAD
DIV
CONF
PPG (http://www.espn.com/nba/standings/_/sort/avgpointsfor)
OPP PPG (http://www.espn.com/nba/standings/_/sort/avgpointsagainst)
DIFF (http://www.espn.com/nba/standings/_/sort/differential)
STRK (http://www.espn.com/nba/standings/_/sort/streak)
L10


1x -Golden State Warriors (http://www.espn.com/nba/team/_/name/gs/golden-state-warriors)
50
11
.820
-
26-3
24-8
11-2
31-7
117.5
105.3
+12.2
L2
7-3


2San Antonio Spurs (http://www.espn.com/nba/team/_/name/sa/san-antonio-spurs)
47
13
.783
2.5
20-6
27-7
7-4
25-8
106.7
98.3
+8.3
W6
8-2


3Houston Rockets (http://www.espn.com/nba/team/_/name/hou/houston-rockets)
43
19
.694
7.5
22-8
21-11
8-4
26-9
115.1
108.3
+6.9
W1
7-3


4Utah Jazz (http://www.espn.com/nba/team/_/name/utah/utah-jazz)
38
24
.613
12.5
21-12
17-12
6-6
21-17
100.4
96.0
+4.3
W1
5-5


5LA Clippers (http://www.espn.com/nba/team/_/name/lac/la-clippers)
36
25
.590
14
19-10
17-15
6-5
22-16
107.9
105.1
+2.8
L2
5-5


6Memphis Grizzlies (http://www.espn.com/nba/team/_/name/mem/memphis-grizzlies)
36
26
.581
14.5
19-11
17-15
6-3
26-14
101.2
99.8
+1.4
L1
6-4


7Oklahoma City Thunder (http://www.espn.com/nba/team/_/name/okc/oklahoma-city-thunder)
35
27
.565
15.5
23-8
12-19
7-4
22-16
106.4
106.2
+0.2
L2
5-5


8Denver Nuggets (http://www.espn.com/nba/team/_/name/den/denver-nuggets)
28
33
.459
22
16-14
12-19
5-8
16-22
110.8
111.4
-0.6
W2
5-5

[TXstbobcat]

And we all become Knicks fans for a few hours on Sunday.

[Mr. Body]

And we all become Knicks fans for a few hours on Sunday.

There's no way the Knicks compete with them.

[PopTheGOAT]

Still don't see us getting the 1. Schedule is rough

[Chinook]

Western Conference




W (http://www.espn.com/nba/standings/_/sort/wins)
L (http://www.espn.com/nba/standings/_/sort/losses)
PCT (http://www.espn.com/nba/standings/_/dir/asc)
GB (http://www.espn.com/nba/standings/_/sort/gamesbehind)
HOME
ROAD
DIV
CONF
PPG (http://www.espn.com/nba/standings/_/sort/avgpointsfor)
OPP PPG (http://www.espn.com/nba/standings/_/sort/avgpointsagainst)
DIFF (http://www.espn.com/nba/standings/_/sort/differential)
STRK (http://www.espn.com/nba/standings/_/sort/streak)
L10


1x -Golden State Warriors (http://www.espn.com/nba/team/_/name/gs/golden-state-warriors)
50
11
.820
-
26-3
24-8
11-2
31-7
117.5
105.3
+12.2
L2
7-3


2San Antonio Spurs (http://www.espn.com/nba/team/_/name/sa/san-antonio-spurs)
47
13
.783
2.5
20-6
27-7
7-4
25-8
106.7
98.3
+8.3
W6
8-2


3Houston Rockets (http://www.espn.com/nba/team/_/name/hou/houston-rockets)
43
19
.694
7.5
22-8
21-11
8-4
26-9
115.1
108.3
+6.9
W1
7-3


4Utah Jazz (http://www.espn.com/nba/team/_/name/utah/utah-jazz)
38
24
.613
12.5
21-12
17-12
6-6
21-17
100.4
96.0
+4.3
W1
5-5


5LA Clippers (http://www.espn.com/nba/team/_/name/lac/la-clippers)
36
25
.590
14
19-10
17-15
6-5
22-16
107.9
105.1
+2.8
L2
5-5


6Memphis Grizzlies (http://www.espn.com/nba/team/_/name/mem/memphis-grizzlies)
36
26
.581
14.5
19-11
17-15
6-3
26-14
101.2
99.8
+1.4
L1
6-4


7Oklahoma City Thunder (http://www.espn.com/nba/team/_/name/okc/oklahoma-city-thunder)
35
27
.565
15.5
23-8
12-19
7-4
22-16
106.4
106.2
+0.2
L2
5-5


8Denver Nuggets (http://www.espn.com/nba/team/_/name/den/denver-nuggets)
28
33
.459
22
16-14
12-19
5-8
16-22
110.8
111.4
-0.6
W2
5-5




In case people are wondering, The Spurs haven't clinched yet because it's still possible for them to get the short end of a three-way tie among SAS, POR and OKC. Portland would be 4-3 compared to SA's 3-3 and OKC's 3-4. Then after the Blazers get the seventh seed, the Thunder would win based on a 2-1 H2H. As far as I can tell, this is the ONLY scenario under which the Spurs could miss out.

[Ice009]

Can't imagine at this point, the Spurs having a better chance to win the Finals than the Cavs.
To win the title, you first have to get there. And the Cavs, playing in the East, pretty much have a bye to the Finals.

It is so easy in the East. There is not one team in the Eastern Conference that I think could have beaten the Spurs the past 6 years if the Spurs switched places/conferences with Lebron's teams. Lebron gets such and easy run to the finals (while sometimes under performing and making it look harder than it should be), whereas the Western Conference team has to go through a gauntlet most of the time to get there (excluding the 2015 Warriors who also got an easy run due to injuries of all the teams they faced).

[sasaint]

It's a very nice article indeed. However, the Spurs are entering what I believe to be the toughest part of their schedule - between now and the end of the regular season. They have to play vs. OKC twice on the road, Golden State twice, including two days after the Spurs play vs. Cleveland, Memphis twice, Utah twice, Atlanta, Houston, and the Clippers among their other opponents. So, I would be extremely thrilled and surprised if they finished with 63 wins.

Given the brutal, upcoming schedule, I will be thrilled and surprised if they win 60. If they continue to play like the last couple of games, they will be fortunate to win 55 - 8 of the last 22.

[TheDoctor]

Pedal to the metal all the way tbh

Let's wreck these mfuckers out of the way and get that 1st seed.

[TheDoctor]

In case people are wondering, The Spurs haven't clinched yet because it's still possible for them to get the short end of a three-way tie among SAS, POR and OKC. Portland would be 4-3 compared to SA's 3-3 and OKC's 3-4. Then after the Blazers get the seventh seed, the Thunder would win based on a 2-1 H2H. As far as I can tell, this is the ONLY scenario under which the Spurs could miss out.

Spurs clinch w/ a W tonite or Portland loss.

[Chinook]

Spurs clinch w/ a W tonite or Portland loss.

Yep.