Spurs Offense and Passing

[SAGirl]

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Interesting topic. MaNu4Tres has been rehashing different versions of the same topic IMO. Others have noticed this, when discussing the decline of Spurs guards Tony and Manu but it was shocking to me to see that stat in the first tweet.

I would agree that they are missing a speedy guard and don't currently feature one. Their current version has less passing and open shots. Of course they still get shots, but not as good of shots as they got earlier. One can see it in great shooters allegedly slumping and passing up shots Imo.

[SAGirl]

843807014983745536
Credits to Paul Garcia it's an interesting topic.

[playbonner15]

2017 Spurs are more predictable the way it's built hence, teams are trying to reach the 7th spot coz they think this year's Team is easy to gameplan

[spursistan]

#PrayforParkerandManu

Unless the two old geezers are frisky enough a month from now, this team offense will get exposed in playoffs once again..

[SAGirl]

#PrayforParkerandManu

Unless the two old geezers are frisky enough a month from now, this team offense will get exposed in playoffs once again..
It's the Kiwi and Lamarcus show now. If they don't get it done, it won't get done, but I like Pau in the bench bc he relieves Manu from having to improvise too much.
And they still need both of course. The Spurs as a team play better when they play well... both create easy shots in different ways, or at least start the motion of swing/swing the ball, swish!

[GSH]

The number of 30+ AST games, in a vacuum, doesn't tell very much.

Of the Spurs' 13 games with 30+ AST, 7 were against LAL, SAC, CHI, and NOP (when they were playing really bad ball).
The '14 team had 16 games with 20 or fewer AST. This team already has 22, and still has 13 games left to play.

Here's the big difference, IMO. In '14 Duncan and Parker combined for 25.6 FGA per game. This year, Kawhi and LMA are taking 32.1 FGA per game.
Only 38% of Kawhi's 2PA's are assisted. Tony took a high percentage of unassisted shots, but he was driving and kicking out a lot more than Kawhi.

When these Spurs are playing shit teams and/or knocking down shots at a high rate, they have had games with a lot of AST's. But in general, they are NOTHING like the '14 Spurs in the AST department.

[skulls138]

The easier the shots, the better chance at championships.

[Seventyniner]

I don't like using raw assists per game to gauge ball distribution. Hockey assists, potential assists, passes per game, etc are better indicators, and even better when used together rather than focusing on a single stat.

[SAGirl]

I don't like using raw assists per game to gauge ball distribution. Hockey assists, potential assists, passes per game, etc are better indicators, and even better when used together rather than focusing on a single stat.
It's just a conversation starter IMO. He does a bit more of analysis in the article he wrote. Nothing in depth, but it's interesting to look at things like that and talk about...

(but of course this site likes the hate Porker threads, Manure, Fathead hate threads, Dleague, etc... nothing against the trolls by the way, I mostly chill and let guys be themselves...) But to chat about points like this is more interesting IMO.

I don't mind the hot takes, but there's more to the team.

We shall see how it goes with this iteration of the team. If they underachieve, they need to address the guard flaws. They probably need to anyways bc Manu will probably retire and they have FA they need to reup (Patty and Simmons)...

[dabom]

this isn't 2014. No team is including the warriors.

[GSH]

It's just a conversation starter IMO. He does a bit more of analysis in the article he wrote. Nothing in depth, but it's interesting to look at things like that and talk about...


If you want an interesting thing to look at about this year's team, Basketball Reference has a section for "Shooting". One of the first columns is "Dist." That is the average distance that each player's shots come from. From top to bottom, the Spurs' offense has been pushed further from the basket this year, than last year, or other past years. FG percentage and efficiency are directly related to shot distance. Plus, if a team is taking more shots in the paint, they are almost certain to be taking more FT's and getting more and-1 opportunities.

Kawhi's average shot distance is 14.7 feet. In 2014, his average shot came from 12.5 feet.
Both of our starting bigs (for most of this season) average around 12 feet. Tim averaged 9 feet, and Tiago averaged 3.8.
Manu's average shot was from 14.1 feet back then, now it's 16.3 feet.

It's like that across the lineup. Even guys like Tony and Patty are being forced to shoot from farther away from the basket. And it's not because this team is taking more 3 pointers. The '14 team took 28.7% of their shots from beyond the 3P line. This year the Spurs are taking 25.7% of their shots from the arc.

Bottom line, closer shots are easier shots. And this team is taking their shots from farther away than in past years. Significantly farther. And I'm afraid it's really going to show in the playoffs.

[Seventyniner]

The '14 team took 28.7% of their shots from beyond the 3P line. This year the Spurs are taking 25.7% of their shots from the arc.

Bottom line, closer shots are easier shots. And this team is taking their shots from farther away than in past years. Significantly farther. And I'm afraid it's really going to show in the playoffs.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/SAS/2017.html
(http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/SAS/2014.html)http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/SAS/2014.html

(scroll down a bit to "Team Misc")

Not sure where you got your numbers. The 2014 team had a 3PAr (percentage of shots taken from three) of 0.257, 16th in the league, while this year's team is at 0.279, 25th in the league. The rate has gone up in absolute terms but dropped relative to league average.

The 2014 team also had a FTr (number of FT attempted per FG attempt) of 0.240, dead last in the league, and this year's team is 0.272, 17th in the league.

You're right that nearly everyone is taking shots further from the basket: Aldridge and Gasol shoot a lot of jumpers (way more than Duncan and Splitter) and Tony and Manu just can't get to the basket at will the way they once could.

I tried adding "10-16" and "16 <3" together to see what percentage of each player's shots comes in the midrange area. Kawhi is at 39.3%, Gasol 36.6%, Parker 35.7%, Mills 26.4%, Ginobili 13.9%, and Aldridge a whopping 52.7%. For comparison, the 2014 team had Duncan 37.6% (!), Parker 36.9%, Mills 32.3%, Ginobili 15.6%. Those numbers agree with your premise.

The best way to look at this would be to look at average shot distance on 2 point shots only, but 3s are not all the same distance so it's not straightforward to back it out of existing shot distance numbers.


(http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/SAS/2014.html) (http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/SAS/2014.html)

[kaji157]

This is a point many users have been doing including me.
38 yo Duncan, 37 yo Ginóbili and 33 yo Parker were better breaking down a defense than prime Leonard and prime Aldridge.

[skulls138]

I think people get too much into the inspirational feeling of great individual play or overcoming great obstacles. Kawhis been great but I remember from last years playoffs how much frickin effort he puts into his scoring and it took its toll. It would be great if he could take his improved game and see if he can exploit the draw he commands with passing especially to LA.

[Proxy]

I mean shit, the 14 bench was beast. Manu, Patty, Beli, Tiago, Boris.... the IQ of that squad. I miss watching this unit

[GSH]

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/SAS/2017.html
(http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/SAS/2014.html)http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/SAS/2014.html

(scroll down a bit to "Team Misc")

Not sure where you got your numbers. The 2014 team had a 3PAr (percentage of shots taken from three) of 0.257, 16th in the league, while this year's team is at 0.279, 25th in the league. The rate has gone up in absolute terms but dropped relative to league average.


Pretty obvious I reversed the two. You didn't notice that they were the same numbers, just with the opposite years? Sometimes I make a mistake. As for the rest of that... whatever. When your most prolific shooter (Kawhi) is taking a LOT more shots, and they are coming from further out, it's a different game.

Some of it is the 3-pointers, but this team isn't getting the ball to the rim nearly as often as past teams. We don't have a top-tier penetrating guard, so they are taking more mid-range shots, and kicking out to perimeter shooters more. Those high-percentage shots at the rim are the bread and butter of playoff teams.

[YGWHI]

843807014983745536
Credits to Paul Garcia it's an interesting topic.

Nice thread :tu

Despite they were built different and played other style, a big difference was that in 2014 the Spurs had players with low USG% but performing big.

Kawhi had 18% and was Spurs 3rd best scorer in the regular season, Simms has the same USG% now but he's not making the same impact.

Look at Belli USG% and production. He had his career-high 3P% in that season, we can't say the same about current Spurs players with similar USG.



When these Spurs are playing shit teams and/or knocking down shots at a high rate, they have had games with a lot of AST's. But in general, they are NOTHING like the '14 Spurs in the AST department.

Spurs don't have the personnel now to play the game they played in 2014. Like they didn't have the personnel in the 4-down Tim's first years.

To play that efficient ball-movement, a team need a ton of good passers with great court vision. I wouldn't say that Lee, Dedmon can replace Tim/Boris playmaking, Gasol isn't giving us on offense what Boris did that season...Even Belli drove and kicked better than this Danny Green versión

The Spurs looked better in 2005 and 2007 when Parker and Manu became into great scorers. Having them playing along with Tim made the team the best in the playoffs.

I just hope the Spurs will surround Kawhi with the right guards like they did with Tim, but in the meantime this team has big personnel, roster holes

[YGWHI]

This is a point many users have been doing including me.
38 yo Duncan, 37 yo Ginóbili and 33 yo Parker were better breaking down a defense than prime Leonard and prime Aldridge.

No. It was exactly the opposite. Those three players didn't break down defenses by themselves but had the personnel to move the ball as a team

[midnightpulp]

We're going to have to learn to live with it. This team is designed for "grit-and-grind" basketball, to kill teams with size, length, and in the post. I hope it works, since I think the "modern" game with its binary chuck 3/penetrate dynamic all starting from the pick-and-roll is terrible basketball.

[tbdog]

The new game won't last for ever. Teams will start focusing on size. However bigs need to shoot these days. You can't have to bricks out there.

[kaji157]

No. It was exactly the opposite. Those three players didn't break down defenses by themselves but had the personnel to move the ball as a team

Yes they did, analyze the roster and you´ll see few changes.

Breaking down is not always scoring yourself.

[Seventyniner]

Pretty obvious I reversed the two. You didn't notice that they were the same numbers, just with the opposite years? Sometimes I make a mistake. As for the rest of that... whatever. When your most prolific shooter (Kawhi) is taking a LOT more shots, and they are coming from further out, it's a different game.

Some of it is the 3-pointers, but this team isn't getting the ball to the rim nearly as often as past teams. We don't have a top-tier penetrating guard, so they are taking more mid-range shots, and kicking out to perimeter shooters more. Those high-percentage shots at the rim are the bread and butter of playoff teams.

Only one of the two numbers was the same so I assumed it was a coincidence. No worries there.

I agree with your premise that a heavy midrange offense isn't likely to work in the playoffs. But at this point what are the options? Aldridge is the biggest volume midrange shooter, so one possible solution (one I've wanted all along) is for him to take a couple steps back and shoot 3s off the pick-and-pop instead of long 2s. Or at least have him develop some of that high-low chemistry with Dedmon and Pau; that would be deadly against a small lineup. Pau is good at catching the ball high and laying it in without bringing it down, and Dedmon would just dunk that shit.

[sananspursfan21]

First time in a long time that the Spurs have relied on basically one player :(

[barbacoataco]

Maybe I'm just a homer but I still believe this team has all the pieces to compete for a championship.
MVP caliber player - check, Leonard
#2 scoring threat - check, Aldridge (in theory) maybe Gasol can play this role for stretches
Top 5 defense in NBA - check, every stat shows that Spurs are near the top in defense
3-pt shooters - check, Green, Mills, Leonard, Manu,
Coaching - check, hopefully Pop qualifies
Defensive stoppers - Leonard and Green remain one of the best wing stopper duos
Good Bench - the Spurs have one of the best in the NBA

So on paper I think they can compete. Of course everything has to go right. But it's always like that to win a championship. Maybe they are just in a malaise now and the pieces will come together in the playoffs.

[GSH]

Spurs don't have the personnel now to play the game they played in 2014. Like they didn't have the personnel in the 4-down Tim's first years.

To play that efficient ball-movement, a team need a ton of good passers with great court vision. I wouldn't say that Lee, Dedmon can replace Tim/Boris playmaking, Gasol isn't giving us on offense what Boris did that season...Even Belli drove and kicked better than this Danny Green versión

The Spurs looked better in 2005 and 2007 when Parker and Manu became into great scorers. Having them playing along with Tim made the team the best in the playoffs.

I just hope the Spurs will surround Kawhi with the right guards like they did with Tim, but in the meantime this team has big personnel, roster holes

Yeah, no. You may not see it, but the fact that that the Spurs are taking shots further from the basket is because of a lack of dribble-penetration (quickness), and a lack of bigs who root for position in the low blocks.

I don't know how to break this to you, but nobody in the NBA can make a good pass without a passing lane. Manu and Tony are both too slow now to create the angles for making great passes (most of the time). You see them making their passes wide, and forcing their guy to move to get to the ball? It's because if they didn't, the passes would get picked off - because the haven't created enough angle to get a straight line to their man. Before you argue, watch a game or two for just that. It's wreaking havoc with our perimeter shooting, and with the flow of the offense. Because when a guy has to chase down a wide pass, he can't step into a shot, and then they basically have to re-set the offense. Manu and Tony are still just as good of passers as they ever were - they just have a much harder time getting the corner going to the basket, which also makes it tough for them to create clean passing lanes for themselves.

This team also doesn't have big men who root for position in the low blocks. LMA and Pau don't play that way (hardly ever). Dedmon probably would, but he doesn't know how to do it effectively yet. Lee works his ass off, and has great technique. I wish he was taller, but I have to give him credit. Even things like re-posting LMA. He virtually NEVER re-posts closer to the basket. He gives the ball up, then gets it back in exactly the same spot, with the same defender in the same position on him. And too often with the same results. You, like most people, don't give Boris credit for how strong he was backing down a defender. He was constantly moving the ball closer to the basket. Yeah, he was an exceptional passer - but it was his ability to get the ball deep into the paint that opened up those passes for him.

I appreciate you telling me that the Spurs don't have the personnel they did in '05 and '07, or even '14. But I've been saying from pre-season that they Spurs are too weak at the 1 and the 5 to win a Championship. Manu isn't a point guard, and LMA isn't a center. But it's all part of the same problem. And it shows up in the fact that they are consistently shooting the ball farther away from the basket.

[GSH]

I agree with your premise that a heavy midrange offense isn't likely to work in the playoffs. But at this point what are the options? .


Sadly, the most likely option is a second round exit. That's not being disloyal, or negative. It's just looking at this team the same way I would if they had another logo on their uniforms. They're better than I thought they would be after losing Tim, because they managed to land Pau, Dedmon, and Lee. Kudos to management. But, yeah, I think that consistently being forced to take shots from further away is a big deal, come playoff time. Manu and Tony still show flashes of being Manu and Tony. I can't see how they can do it often and consistently enough to win four 7-game series. But I guess Rudy T said it - never underestimate the heart of a champion. I'll keep watching and cheering until the last game.

[YGWHI]

I don't know how to break this to you, but nobody in the NBA can make a good pass without a passing lane. Manu and Tony are both too slow now to create the angles for making great passes (most of the time). You see them making their passes wide, and forcing their guy to move to get to the ball? It's because if they didn't, the passes would get picked off - because the haven't created enough angle to get a straight line to their man. Before you argue, watch a game or two for just that. It's wreaking havoc with our perimeter shooting, and with the flow of the offense. Because when a guy has to chase down a wide pass, he can't step into a shot, and then they basically have to re-set the offense. Manu and Tony are still just as good of passers as they ever were - they just have a much harder time getting the corner going to the basket, which also makes it tough for them to create clean passing lanes for themselves.

For some reason I said that Spurs were better with Parker/Manu becoming great scorers, players, than in the first 4-Down years.
Tim was amazing, so dominant in those years but having two guards with elite dribble-penetration took the team to another level. Even Tim could have easy ones that never got in the previous years.

Sadly, with Parker/Manu decline, the offense had to change.
Like I've said before I'd love to see the Spurs filling this hole in next summer or at least in Kawhi's prime years but I'm not very optimistic about their future moves.

[spurraider21]

aldridge has been way too soft and over the course of the season, seems to play scared on offense, and refuses to assert himself against mismatches. if he keeps this up and gets his head on straight, then we have the legit #2 option that he was supposed to be all along

ultimately this team relies on way too many things to click that quite frankly haven't consistently shown up during the season at all, let alone at the same time...

1) kawhi's mvp level play has been consistent, and we need it to stay that way
2) lma needs to be an offensive force that punishes teams when they don't double. he hasn't been that most of the year
3) green needs to be knocking down his shots. he started off hot the first couple of months, has really slowed down since. can't have him being a useless body out there
4) parker needs to have just a little juice. he doesn't have to score 15, but he occasionally has games where he's able to penetrate just enough and make the occasional bail-out play. can't have him being useless unless patty is on absolute fire
5) patty's gotta be the microwave. come in and knock down shots. be pesky on D. imo he's mostly done a good job all year
6) dedmon has to go back to being :wow dedmon :wow

this team doesn't ring unless those things happen consistently

[YGWHI]

aldridge has been way too soft and over the course of the season, seems to play scared on offense, and refuses to assert himself against mismatches. if he keeps this up and gets his head on straight, then we have the legit #2 option that he was supposed to be all along

But he's still a volumen scorer who needs to take a ton of shots to keep rolling. And a kind of Danny's Icy-Hot mid-range version.

When Kawhi gets double-triple teamed, or LMA, this team will need the shooters....Like in Parker's last 3-point tonight, when 3 Memphis guys were on Kawhi and he found open-Parker in the corner

But those shooters missed crucial shots in last playoffs. Not sure if we can trust them.

It's in these situations when Spurs lack of slashers would cost them playoffs games.
When double teams come and shots aren't falling, having a guard who can drive instead of just clanking open 3's would make Kawhi/LMA/Spurs lives easier.

[YGWHI]

4) parker needs to have just a little juice. he doesn't have to score 15, but he occasionally has games where he's able to penetrate just enough and make the occasional bail-out play. can't have him being useless unless patty is on absolute fire
Unless Pop make Parker to play against opposite benches, he wont have those opportunities in playoffs.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Aldridge took a big ole shit on Garcia's take last night.

[skulls138]

But he's still a volumen scorer who needs to take a ton of shots to keep rolling. And a kind of Danny's Icy-Hot mid-range version.

When Kawhi gets double-triple teamed, or LMA, this team will need the shooters....Like in Parker's last 3-point tonight, when 3 Memphis guys were on Kawhi and he found open-Parker in the corner

But those shooters missed crucial shots in last playoffs. Not sure if we can trust them.

It's in these situations when Spurs lack of slashers would cost them playoffs games.
When double teams come and shots aren't falling, having a guard who can drive instead of just clanking open 3's would make Kawhi/LMA/Spurs lives easier.Weve got no choice but to trust them. Cant win without them.