Manu20
10-12-2005, 04:21 PM
NBA 2005 Preview: Southwest Division
Charley Rosen / Special to FOXSports.com
Posted: 2 hours ago
http://msn.foxsports.com/nba/story/4932528
The upper and lower echelons of the Southwest Division will remain intact. The real intra-divisional competition will involve the three mid-level teams in their battle for fortuitous playoff seedings.
Dallas
The guards — Jason Terry is a scorer masquerading as a playmaker. Marquis Daniels has limited outside range, would rather penetrate and pull and has quick, active hands on defense. Doug Christie is more trouble than he's worth. How long can the 37-year-old Darrell Armstrong continue to scoot and shoot? Tariq Abdul-Wahad is a streaky shooter, a slasher, an aggressive scorer in the low post and a springy rebounder. He's also the best defender on the squad. He needs to play. Christie needs to sit.
The forwards — Jerry Stackhouse is incredibly strong and can score on drives (right or left), posts (he prefers the left box), from the perimeter and on the run. He's a reluctant passer and plays passing-lane defense only. Dirk Nowitzki can catch-and-shoot, rely on head fakes and fadeaway moves to create shooting space, rebound, run and pass. He's an incredible athlete with only two major flaws: His defensive efforts are mostly limited to swiping at the ball and he's as soft as a marshmallow. Keith Van Horn will always make boneheaded and cowardly mistakes in the clutch. Josh Howard runs, cuts, leaps, rebounds, shows an improving mid-range jumper, plays earnest long-armed defense and always competes. What he can't do is handle and drive left.
The centers — Erick Dampier is an aggressive rebounder, a swift runner for a big man and although he does most of his scoring off put-backs, he also has powerful drop-steps, reverse-pivots and spin moves in the low post. More of a shot-blocker than a position defender, Dampier was born with foul trouble. DeSagana Diop is big, strong and too young to contribute. Can 7-foot-5 Pavel Podkolzin clap his hands and chew gum at the same time?
The coach — Avery Johnson is still an apprentice. Or is Del Harris the ventriloquist in charge? In any case, if Johnson doesn't learn to calm down, he won't last the season.
The outlook — Not enough defense and too many powerless power forwards to seriously challenge the Spurs. Will miss Michael Finley's ability to bail out a stalled offensive sequence with his one-on-one moves. Terry needs to have an All-Star season and a mind-set transplant for the Mavs to come close to duplicating last year's total of 58 wins.
Houston
The guards — Rafer Alston has a world of talent — he can draw and dish, push the ball, run forever, drive both ways and play an annoying ball-hawking defense. Too bad he's always hell-bent on scoring and shoots off his mouth in addition to too many ill-advised treys. This guy is a bad actor who thinks he's better than he is and will eventually alienate his teammates and his new coach. David Wesley is a No. 2 guy in a No. 1's body. Charlie Ward chose to play the wrong sport. Moochie Norris is too erratic to trust in any game that isn't a blowout. Jon Barry is smart, an excellent post feeder, an automatic 3-point shooter, not a very good finisher and a gambler on defense — all-in-all a valuable substitute. If Derek Anderson can stay healthy, he can do everything on offense and defense that even the most nit-picking coach requires, but that's a big if. The Rockets will sorely miss Bob Sura's heady, hustling leadership.
The forwards — T-Mac is a legit superstar whose decision-making and defense improve every year. To make him more effective, however, he needs fewer minutes, fewer touches, and, instead of beginning virtually every play at a standstill, he needs to occasionally catch the ball on the move. Juwan Howard puts up numbers but doesn't play defense and can't be found in the clutch. Lonny Baxter is an undersized powerhouse. Stromile Swift is a career underachiever.
The centers — Yao Ming lacks aggressiveness, has leaden lateral movement, slow reactions on defense, is slow off the floor and can't play hard for more than eight minutes at a time. He's a made-in-China Statue of Liberty who excels in shooting and passing. Not enough to light a championship torch in Houston. Dikembe Mutombo is an ageless wonder.
The coach — Jeff Van Gundy is extremely arrogant and outspoken for a coach who's never won anything. If the Rockets don't survive until the conference finals, Van Gundy will be forced to take his whining sour-pussed act elsewhere.
The outlook — Not enough quickness and leadership at the point. Not enough help for T-Mac in the frontcourt. No reliable bench players. And a pipsqueak coach who thinks he's a giant. Everything adds up to another disappointing season in Houston.
Memphis
The guards — Damon Stoudamire has a coast-to-coast mentality and is only interested in making touchdown passes. He can still score and penetrate, but he never could defend. Mike Miller can slash, play hard and shoot from the outlands, but can't guard a lamp post without fouling. At age 34, Eddie Jones knows how to score and defend but remains toothless in crunch-time. Raul Lopez makes good decisions, is an excellent spot shooter but is uncomfortable driving left and is too weak to play NBA-caliber defense. Bobby Jackson is explosive (although he's a better shooter than a finisher), and plays better-than-average defense but at age 32 is increasingly fragile. If Jackson can't play 70-plus games (which he hasn't done since 2001-02) Memphis is doomed to a lottery season. Antonio Burks is still an inexperienced speedster who will be mostly relegated to garbage time.
The forwards — Shane Battier is a jack of all trades and master of most of them. His only faults are a lack of foot speed and a penchant for playing such extreme ball-denial defense that he can be back-doored. The guy's a winner. Dahntay Jones does everything well except shoot with consistency. Brian Cardinal hustles, rebounds, can score from the inside and outside and knows how to play. Defense is his Waterloo. Paul Gasol has a multitude of pivot moves — all of them slow, studied, but mostly effective. His extra-long arms make him a dangerous shot-blocker. However, Gasol is another softie.
The centers — Jake Tsakalidis is big, strong, awkward and mechanical, but he works hard. Lorenzen Wright plays hard and tough at both ends, rebounds, runs the floor, can hit open jumpers from 18 feet, can't handle or pass and always wants to score. At 240 pounds, he's somewhat light to be the force in the middle that Memphis needs.
The coach — His players admire Mike Fratello's game preparation and dislike his perpetual nagging. This duality makes viable player-coach communication a problem. Should the Grizzlies be tamed early in the season, a mutiny is likely.
The outlook — With a scorer at the point, a shooting guard who's liable to trip over the foul line and be out for months, an excellent team player at the three who hasn't much of a team with which to articulate, a weakling at the power forward spot and an undersized center, Memphis will be fortunate to make the playoffs.
New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets
The guards — Speedy Claxton is a worthy point guard, but he isn't quick enough to avoid injuries. Kirk Synder can hit standstill treys (and little else) and is reputed to be a malcontent. J. R. Smith is one year removed from high school and has a huge upside — he and rookie Chris Paul are the Hornets' only hopes for resurgence.
The forwards — At 36, P.J. Brown remains the team's best defender even though he's lost a step-and-a-half; he's a role player who was forced to do too much last season. George Lynch is only one year younger than Brown and is likewise a defensive specialist with too many miles on his pedometer. David West isn't much of a shooter (perhaps that's why he wants to dunk everything) but is a physical presence in the lane. Bostjan Nachbar can handle, drive both ways (pulling up going left), run and shoot soft jumpers. He's also not physically strong enough to play adequate defense either in the post or out on the perimeter. Maciej Lampe can make unattended jumpers and can't defend. Rasual Butler can shoot from the outskirts, drive and finish, pull-up and draw enough contact to get to the foul line. In other words, all offense, no defense.
The centers — Chris Anderson jumps and runs and jumps and runs. Jamaal Magloire has all kinds of inside moves — hooks both ways, spins, drop steps, inside reverse pivots and face-up jumpers. He'll also run, block shots and rebound. What he won't do is pass. What he can't do is resist being bullied.
The coach — Through a disastrous season of injuries, Byron Scott somehow kept his team playing hard enough to stay in contention until the closing minutes of innumerable games. Scott faces the new season with a somewhat better squad and, more significantly, with an evolving sense of humility that will make him a better coach.
The outlook — Another abysmal season. At least the curious citizens of Oklahoma City will turn out to see the Hornets play (provided, of course, that the Sooners' hoopers and gridders are idle). Welcome to OKC, the jewel in the desert, where the Red Dirt Rangers are the best band in town and where barbequed bologna passes as gourmet food.
San Antonio
The guards — Tony Parker is quick as a wish and a clutch shooter, but he can get careless with the ball and often has difficulty defending screen/rolls. Manu Ginobili is resourceful and used to winning — but if he ever cut his hair short, the refs wouldn't send him to the free throw line as much as they do now. Nick Van Exel can still score in spurts, and, if he's willing (which he should be) to look to make the extra pass, he'll be a total plus. Beno Udrih is too shaky to be trusted in postseason play and will be relegated to the bench. Sitting beside Udrih will be Brent Barry.
The forwards — Bruce Bowen's defense is a key element in the Spurs' success. His accuracy from beyond the 3-point line, and his increasing ability to put the ball on the floor, are extra dividends. Michael Finley has an unstoppable fadeaway jumper and plays alert defense — a huge improvement over what San Antonio hoped to get from Glenn Robinson. Fabricio Oberto has good hands, a soft touch and a killer's instincts. Robert Horry saves his best until May and June. Tim Duncan is the best in the business.
The centers — Nazr Mohammed stays out of everyone's way, blocks an occasional shot, grabs an occasional rebound and sinks an occasional jump hook. If he had good hands and could play containment defense without committing an inordinate number of fouls, he'd still be playing for the Knicks. Rasho Nesterovic is better than he looks; he can shoot short jumpers and jump hooks, rebound and make intelligent passes. Sean Marks works hard. These three guys only have to hold the fort until the last five minutes of tight ball games when TD plays center and Horry plays power forward. For what they're supposed to do — the trench work, absorbing (and giving) a pounding and accumulating fouls — Mohammed, Nesterovic and Marks are perfectly suited.
The coach — Gregg Popovich successfully walks the line between being too stubborn and being creative. His game preparation (aided enormously by an outstanding staff) is immaculate. No coach manages the clock or matchups better. Pop can also juggle the ability to communicate and dictate to his players with just the right touch. Pop and Phil Jackson are neck-and-neck at the top of the best active coaches' list.
The outlook — There are only three scenarios that can stop the Spurs from repeating. A spate of injuries. The refusal of Van Exel and/or Finley to get with the program. An act of God.
Charley Rosen, former CBA coach, author of 12 books about hoops, the current one being A pivotal season — How the 1971-72 L.A. Lakers changed the NBA, is a frequent contributor to FOXSports.com.
Charley Rosen / Special to FOXSports.com
Posted: 2 hours ago
http://msn.foxsports.com/nba/story/4932528
The upper and lower echelons of the Southwest Division will remain intact. The real intra-divisional competition will involve the three mid-level teams in their battle for fortuitous playoff seedings.
Dallas
The guards — Jason Terry is a scorer masquerading as a playmaker. Marquis Daniels has limited outside range, would rather penetrate and pull and has quick, active hands on defense. Doug Christie is more trouble than he's worth. How long can the 37-year-old Darrell Armstrong continue to scoot and shoot? Tariq Abdul-Wahad is a streaky shooter, a slasher, an aggressive scorer in the low post and a springy rebounder. He's also the best defender on the squad. He needs to play. Christie needs to sit.
The forwards — Jerry Stackhouse is incredibly strong and can score on drives (right or left), posts (he prefers the left box), from the perimeter and on the run. He's a reluctant passer and plays passing-lane defense only. Dirk Nowitzki can catch-and-shoot, rely on head fakes and fadeaway moves to create shooting space, rebound, run and pass. He's an incredible athlete with only two major flaws: His defensive efforts are mostly limited to swiping at the ball and he's as soft as a marshmallow. Keith Van Horn will always make boneheaded and cowardly mistakes in the clutch. Josh Howard runs, cuts, leaps, rebounds, shows an improving mid-range jumper, plays earnest long-armed defense and always competes. What he can't do is handle and drive left.
The centers — Erick Dampier is an aggressive rebounder, a swift runner for a big man and although he does most of his scoring off put-backs, he also has powerful drop-steps, reverse-pivots and spin moves in the low post. More of a shot-blocker than a position defender, Dampier was born with foul trouble. DeSagana Diop is big, strong and too young to contribute. Can 7-foot-5 Pavel Podkolzin clap his hands and chew gum at the same time?
The coach — Avery Johnson is still an apprentice. Or is Del Harris the ventriloquist in charge? In any case, if Johnson doesn't learn to calm down, he won't last the season.
The outlook — Not enough defense and too many powerless power forwards to seriously challenge the Spurs. Will miss Michael Finley's ability to bail out a stalled offensive sequence with his one-on-one moves. Terry needs to have an All-Star season and a mind-set transplant for the Mavs to come close to duplicating last year's total of 58 wins.
Houston
The guards — Rafer Alston has a world of talent — he can draw and dish, push the ball, run forever, drive both ways and play an annoying ball-hawking defense. Too bad he's always hell-bent on scoring and shoots off his mouth in addition to too many ill-advised treys. This guy is a bad actor who thinks he's better than he is and will eventually alienate his teammates and his new coach. David Wesley is a No. 2 guy in a No. 1's body. Charlie Ward chose to play the wrong sport. Moochie Norris is too erratic to trust in any game that isn't a blowout. Jon Barry is smart, an excellent post feeder, an automatic 3-point shooter, not a very good finisher and a gambler on defense — all-in-all a valuable substitute. If Derek Anderson can stay healthy, he can do everything on offense and defense that even the most nit-picking coach requires, but that's a big if. The Rockets will sorely miss Bob Sura's heady, hustling leadership.
The forwards — T-Mac is a legit superstar whose decision-making and defense improve every year. To make him more effective, however, he needs fewer minutes, fewer touches, and, instead of beginning virtually every play at a standstill, he needs to occasionally catch the ball on the move. Juwan Howard puts up numbers but doesn't play defense and can't be found in the clutch. Lonny Baxter is an undersized powerhouse. Stromile Swift is a career underachiever.
The centers — Yao Ming lacks aggressiveness, has leaden lateral movement, slow reactions on defense, is slow off the floor and can't play hard for more than eight minutes at a time. He's a made-in-China Statue of Liberty who excels in shooting and passing. Not enough to light a championship torch in Houston. Dikembe Mutombo is an ageless wonder.
The coach — Jeff Van Gundy is extremely arrogant and outspoken for a coach who's never won anything. If the Rockets don't survive until the conference finals, Van Gundy will be forced to take his whining sour-pussed act elsewhere.
The outlook — Not enough quickness and leadership at the point. Not enough help for T-Mac in the frontcourt. No reliable bench players. And a pipsqueak coach who thinks he's a giant. Everything adds up to another disappointing season in Houston.
Memphis
The guards — Damon Stoudamire has a coast-to-coast mentality and is only interested in making touchdown passes. He can still score and penetrate, but he never could defend. Mike Miller can slash, play hard and shoot from the outlands, but can't guard a lamp post without fouling. At age 34, Eddie Jones knows how to score and defend but remains toothless in crunch-time. Raul Lopez makes good decisions, is an excellent spot shooter but is uncomfortable driving left and is too weak to play NBA-caliber defense. Bobby Jackson is explosive (although he's a better shooter than a finisher), and plays better-than-average defense but at age 32 is increasingly fragile. If Jackson can't play 70-plus games (which he hasn't done since 2001-02) Memphis is doomed to a lottery season. Antonio Burks is still an inexperienced speedster who will be mostly relegated to garbage time.
The forwards — Shane Battier is a jack of all trades and master of most of them. His only faults are a lack of foot speed and a penchant for playing such extreme ball-denial defense that he can be back-doored. The guy's a winner. Dahntay Jones does everything well except shoot with consistency. Brian Cardinal hustles, rebounds, can score from the inside and outside and knows how to play. Defense is his Waterloo. Paul Gasol has a multitude of pivot moves — all of them slow, studied, but mostly effective. His extra-long arms make him a dangerous shot-blocker. However, Gasol is another softie.
The centers — Jake Tsakalidis is big, strong, awkward and mechanical, but he works hard. Lorenzen Wright plays hard and tough at both ends, rebounds, runs the floor, can hit open jumpers from 18 feet, can't handle or pass and always wants to score. At 240 pounds, he's somewhat light to be the force in the middle that Memphis needs.
The coach — His players admire Mike Fratello's game preparation and dislike his perpetual nagging. This duality makes viable player-coach communication a problem. Should the Grizzlies be tamed early in the season, a mutiny is likely.
The outlook — With a scorer at the point, a shooting guard who's liable to trip over the foul line and be out for months, an excellent team player at the three who hasn't much of a team with which to articulate, a weakling at the power forward spot and an undersized center, Memphis will be fortunate to make the playoffs.
New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets
The guards — Speedy Claxton is a worthy point guard, but he isn't quick enough to avoid injuries. Kirk Synder can hit standstill treys (and little else) and is reputed to be a malcontent. J. R. Smith is one year removed from high school and has a huge upside — he and rookie Chris Paul are the Hornets' only hopes for resurgence.
The forwards — At 36, P.J. Brown remains the team's best defender even though he's lost a step-and-a-half; he's a role player who was forced to do too much last season. George Lynch is only one year younger than Brown and is likewise a defensive specialist with too many miles on his pedometer. David West isn't much of a shooter (perhaps that's why he wants to dunk everything) but is a physical presence in the lane. Bostjan Nachbar can handle, drive both ways (pulling up going left), run and shoot soft jumpers. He's also not physically strong enough to play adequate defense either in the post or out on the perimeter. Maciej Lampe can make unattended jumpers and can't defend. Rasual Butler can shoot from the outskirts, drive and finish, pull-up and draw enough contact to get to the foul line. In other words, all offense, no defense.
The centers — Chris Anderson jumps and runs and jumps and runs. Jamaal Magloire has all kinds of inside moves — hooks both ways, spins, drop steps, inside reverse pivots and face-up jumpers. He'll also run, block shots and rebound. What he won't do is pass. What he can't do is resist being bullied.
The coach — Through a disastrous season of injuries, Byron Scott somehow kept his team playing hard enough to stay in contention until the closing minutes of innumerable games. Scott faces the new season with a somewhat better squad and, more significantly, with an evolving sense of humility that will make him a better coach.
The outlook — Another abysmal season. At least the curious citizens of Oklahoma City will turn out to see the Hornets play (provided, of course, that the Sooners' hoopers and gridders are idle). Welcome to OKC, the jewel in the desert, where the Red Dirt Rangers are the best band in town and where barbequed bologna passes as gourmet food.
San Antonio
The guards — Tony Parker is quick as a wish and a clutch shooter, but he can get careless with the ball and often has difficulty defending screen/rolls. Manu Ginobili is resourceful and used to winning — but if he ever cut his hair short, the refs wouldn't send him to the free throw line as much as they do now. Nick Van Exel can still score in spurts, and, if he's willing (which he should be) to look to make the extra pass, he'll be a total plus. Beno Udrih is too shaky to be trusted in postseason play and will be relegated to the bench. Sitting beside Udrih will be Brent Barry.
The forwards — Bruce Bowen's defense is a key element in the Spurs' success. His accuracy from beyond the 3-point line, and his increasing ability to put the ball on the floor, are extra dividends. Michael Finley has an unstoppable fadeaway jumper and plays alert defense — a huge improvement over what San Antonio hoped to get from Glenn Robinson. Fabricio Oberto has good hands, a soft touch and a killer's instincts. Robert Horry saves his best until May and June. Tim Duncan is the best in the business.
The centers — Nazr Mohammed stays out of everyone's way, blocks an occasional shot, grabs an occasional rebound and sinks an occasional jump hook. If he had good hands and could play containment defense without committing an inordinate number of fouls, he'd still be playing for the Knicks. Rasho Nesterovic is better than he looks; he can shoot short jumpers and jump hooks, rebound and make intelligent passes. Sean Marks works hard. These three guys only have to hold the fort until the last five minutes of tight ball games when TD plays center and Horry plays power forward. For what they're supposed to do — the trench work, absorbing (and giving) a pounding and accumulating fouls — Mohammed, Nesterovic and Marks are perfectly suited.
The coach — Gregg Popovich successfully walks the line between being too stubborn and being creative. His game preparation (aided enormously by an outstanding staff) is immaculate. No coach manages the clock or matchups better. Pop can also juggle the ability to communicate and dictate to his players with just the right touch. Pop and Phil Jackson are neck-and-neck at the top of the best active coaches' list.
The outlook — There are only three scenarios that can stop the Spurs from repeating. A spate of injuries. The refusal of Van Exel and/or Finley to get with the program. An act of God.
Charley Rosen, former CBA coach, author of 12 books about hoops, the current one being A pivotal season — How the 1971-72 L.A. Lakers changed the NBA, is a frequent contributor to FOXSports.com.