2018 free agency plan discussion

[objective]

Lots of people, in the media and in this forum, look to the summer 2018 as the key time to make moves. After all, no Gasol, no Parker, and Aldridge and Green have opt outs, making it very possible to open up tons of room.

But both the class of free agents and the actual forecast caproom doesn't look that great.

summer 2018 cap:

Kawhi 20.1
Duncan stretch 1.9
Murray 1.55
Bertans QO 1.75
2017 1st draft pick 1.5
2018 1st draft pick 1.5

That's basically it, right? Only a total of 28.3 or so. Tons of room.

But what's missing?

Aldridge cap hold: 32.2
Green cap hold: 15

Well, that gets to 75.5 million. Should still be quite a bit, no?

Doesn't count any money being paid out a potential Mills deal. Or Simmons. Or Hanga. Or anyone given a room deal for 2 years should they get capspace this summer. Or anyone given a multi-year MLE deal this summer should they forego caproom. And it doesn't factor in Milutinov, who could be brought over on rookie scale this year, but if not ... he's in line for some big beyond-rookie scale money, so you need to factor that in. Plus any QO for Kyle Anderson.

So lots of people expect a deal for Mills at around 10-12.

Mills: 10.5

Say someone only signs Simmons to an MLE deal. Spurs have to match that, right? MLE for Simmons? A bargain.

Simmons: 8.5

And of course they will add Hanga or some veteran big for at least the room exception.

Hanga/Vet: 4.0

Now you're at 98.5 million. Plus roster charges? $100 million. And the projected 2018-19 cap? $103 million.
(http://nba.nbcsports.com/2017/02/07/report-nba-also-reduces-projected-2018-19-salary-cap-to-103-million/)

Now what? Not much room, only the MLE to play with for a roster that is basically what it is now. But maybe they renounce Aldridge and Green. Frees up 47+ million in room. But who are these prime targets?

Isaiah Thomas (not happening with Mills and Murray)
Avery Bradley (maybe)
Tyler Zeller
Brook Lopez
Lin (PO)
Frye
Seth Curry
Capela (restricted)
Ariza
Lou Williams
Paul George (not happening)
DeAndre Jordan (PO and already declining)
Randle (restricted)
Monroe (if he doesn't opt out in 17)
Wiggins (restricted)
Lavine (restricted)
Cousins
Melo
Westbrook (eto)
Aaron Gordon (restricted)
Embid (restricted)
Favors

And that's pretty much it. Some other stragglers I haven't listed to be sure.

Is it basically a "COUSINS OR BUST" plan?

Not too crazy about that. Every restricted guy worth having will be matched Everyone else is either injured, on their way to washed up, not happening, or not really any better than keeping Aldridge and Green.

[raybies]

One might think Cousins and Westbrook but I don't want either. Cousins for the obvious reasons and Westbrook won't defer to Leonard. It'd be like Durant Westbrook

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

Westbrook won't be a FA, he'll sign the supermax extension.

[MaNu4Tres]

Which is why the Spurs should try getting on the phone and see what they can gey from LA and Pau this summer. Acquire the best picks they can, with a prospect and cap space. Utilize the cap space on the FA market this year.

Renounce Patty, let him go.

[objective]

Which is why the Spurs should try getting on the phone and see what they can gey from LA, Kyle and Pau this summer. Acquire the best picks they can, with a prospect and cap space. Utilize the cap space on the FA market this year.

Renounce Patty, let him go.

I agree, EDIT, EXPANDED ON IN LATER POST but worry about the FO and their history.

The same braintrust decided in 2007 that all their old, washed up assy free agents had to be re-signed on multi-year deals to defend "their" title with the roster completely intact despite those busters being minor elements of a title team.

And so thoroughly over the hill and rapidly declining old guys like Finley, Vaughn and Oberto got multi-year deals. While every other team had the goal of getting better and improving their roster to compete with the Spurs, the Spurs decided, "Nahhh. Let's stay the exact same, but older, slower and worse for it. These guys have earned it! We won for Fin!"

So I could easily see the Spurs FO conning themselves into the same thinking. "Well, Kawhi was hurt. So really we're just as good as GSW and need to bring everyone back for another go round! No need to get better, no other team will. On Parker! On Pau! On Millsie!"

[Mal]

Why you count in Aldridge`s cap hold ? If he opts out, he`s gone. No way Spurs will keep him for more than he opted out.

If Green stays, it will quick deal, for less that cap hold. That will leave 35 mil ? That`s right about one full max deal.

[objective]

Aldridge's cap hold will count until he's renounced.

He might want to sign a deal at more than 20 but less than 35 ... he'll still count for the full hold until he signs.

If he's gone, and there's enough for one max ... who's that max player?

Cousins? And ... that's it. Unless Brook Lopez, Derrick Favors, or Melo are your targets. Westbrook, George, IT all seem very unrealistic. Even Cousins doesn't seem so likely.

[cd98]

We need to come up with a plan to get 3 all stars so we can compete with GSW.

[Big Empty]

This team still won 60 games. We arnt going to get anything in trade value for aldridge. We need a guard that can create and get to the rim. Im not quiet sold on simmons but i like him off the bench.

[DesignatedT]

What if Parker decides to call it quits... does that change things for this year?

[mo7888]

This team still won 60 games. We arnt going to get anything in trade value for aldridge. We need a guard that can create and get to the rim. Im not quiet sold on simmons but i like him off the bench.

I think the fact that we won 60 games is what will give Aldridge value...some dumb gm will talk himself into it based on the win total and game 6 in Houston.

[raybies]

I think the Spurs will test the waters with Paul and gauge his interest but let's face it, we build through the draft. Spurs struck lightning twice with Parker and Ginobili, and to a lesser extent, another two times with Hill and Splitter. Teams are a lot better at scouting Euros now and very few players fall through cracks. Really need a skilled big and a combo guard imo. If we can't go the three all star route we need a cast of really skilled all around players.

[objective]

Which is why the Spurs should try getting on the phone and see what they can gey from LA and Pau this summer. Acquire the best picks they can, with a prospect and cap space. Utilize the cap space on the FA market this year.

Renounce Patty, let him go.

To clarify my earlier post:

I agree with junking Pau and dropping Mills

But I would be fine with keeping Aldridge. He has to be dropped to third banana status, which would happen if any of the BIG 4 point guards were signed (Paul, Hill, Holiday, Lowry)

For me it's more of a return on money thing. I don't think mediocre players + middling picks received back in trade for LMA, if even possible, equal his production. He's still a good defender at the rim, and semi useful on offense, especially if he comes into camp in shape. Getting back a Kaminsky or Dudley or whoever won't cut it, and the draft pick won't play.

On top of all that, LMA has a 15% trade kicker. Sure he could waive it, but it's a factor.

[MaNu4Tres]

I agree, EDIT, EXPANDED ON IN LATER POST but worry about the FO and their history.

The same braintrust decided in 2007 that all their old, washed up assy free agents had to be re-signed on multi-year deals to defend "their" title with the roster completely intact despite those busters being minor elements of a title team.

And so thoroughly over the hill and rapidly declining old guys like Finley, Vaughn and Oberto got multi-year deals. While every other team had the goal of getting better and improving their roster to compete with the Spurs, the Spurs decided, "Nahhh. Let's stay the exact same, but older, slower and worse for it. These guys have earned it! We won for Fin!"

So I could easily see the Spurs FO conning themselves into the same thinking. "Well, Kawhi was hurt. So really we're just as good as GSW and need to bring everyone back for another go round! No need to get better, no other team will. On Parker! On Pau! On Millsie!"

Lol I hear you. Hopefully they learned from those dumbass decisions 10 years ago. If they haven't learned, Spurs will be in trouble. These next two offseasons are critical and will be the foundation for the next 3-5 years.

If they stand pat, the decline is inevitable and may be too sharp for them to ever climb back up.

[coachmac87]

I think Gasol opts out and possibly goes to Memphis...

I don't think Dedmon or Simmons will get as much as people think and should/will be retained by Spurs..

Unless Patty takes like 10M per I wouldn't consider bringing him back and he's like Plan C...

The priority is going to be moving Aldridge and this plan has been in place since the beginning of the season..Spurs have an idea of what they'd want in return or how they'd approach this and tbh with LMA's shitty year they'd probably be open to take less..

[r0drig0lac]

too early

[picnroll]

I bet Simmons gets paid full Arenas exception by the Spurs or someone else..

[Mal]

I think Gasol would not opt in just for the money. If he and Spurs are on diffrent pages, he`s most likely gone. He`s healthy, earned a lot of money, still will bet 10mil+ in the open market.

Just heard that Simmons can sign contract structured like that - 8mil, 8mil, MAX. Ideal would be contract 8 + 8 + PO at 8. Simmons would 30 for his probably last NBA deal. Perfect for both sides.

That leaves a big question mark on Mills. I really don`t know what to do with him. I can see 76ers taking him. They need shooting PG, he`s aussie. Also will LMA and/or Green opt out in 2018 ?

[sammy]

Lots of people, in the media and in this forum, look to the summer 2018 as the key time to make moves. After all, no Gasol, no Parker, and Aldridge and Green have opt outs, making it very possible to open up tons of room.

But both the class of free agents and the actual forecast caproom doesn't look that great.

summer 2018 cap:

Kawhi 20.1
Duncan stretch 1.9
Murray 1.55
Bertans QO 1.75
2017 1st draft pick 1.5
2018 1st draft pick 1.5

That's basically it, right? Only a total of 28.3 or so. Tons of room.

But what's missing?

Aldridge cap hold: 32.2
Green cap hold: 15

Well, that gets to 75.5 million. Should still be quite a bit, no?

Doesn't count any money being paid out a potential Mills deal. Or Simmons. Or Hanga. Or anyone given a room deal for 2 years should they get capspace this summer. Or anyone given a multi-year MLE deal this summer should they forego caproom. And it doesn't factor in Milutinov, who could be brought over on rookie scale this year, but if not ... he's in line for some big beyond-rookie scale money, so you need to factor that in. Plus any QO for Kyle Anderson.

So lots of people expect a deal for Mills at around 10-12.

Mills: 10.5

Say someone only signs Simmons to an MLE deal. Spurs have to match that, right? MLE for Simmons? A bargain.

Simmons: 8.5

And of course they will add Hanga or some veteran big for at least the room exception.

Hanga/Vet: 4.0

Now you're at 98.5 million. Plus roster charges? $100 million. And the projected 2018-19 cap? $103 million.
(http://nba.nbcsports.com/2017/02/07/report-nba-also-reduces-projected-2018-19-salary-cap-to-103-million/)

Now what? Not much room, only the MLE to play with for a roster that is basically what it is now. But maybe they renounce Aldridge and Green. Frees up 47+ million in room. But who are these prime targets?

Isaiah Thomas (not happening with Mills and Murray)
Avery Bradley (maybe)
Tyler Zeller
Brook Lopez
Lin (PO)
Frye
Seth Curry
Capela (restricted)
Ariza
Lou Williams
Paul George (not happening)
DeAndre Jordan (PO and already declining)
Randle (restricted)
Monroe (if he doesn't opt out in 17)
Wiggins (restricted)
Lavine (restricted)
Cousins
Melo
Westbrook (eto)
Aaron Gordon (restricted)
Embid (restricted)
Favors

And that's pretty much it. Some other stragglers I haven't listed to be sure.

Is it basically a "COUSINS OR BUST" plan?

Not too crazy about that. Every restricted guy worth having will be matched Everyone else is either injured, on their way to washed up, not happening, or not really any better than keeping Aldridge and Green.

Paul Millsap just opted out of his contract, what do you think?

[spursistan]

Yeah, not sure for whom they are making this cap space play in 2018..Even slimmer pickings than this summer.

"Run it back" isn't option after what has transpired in the series..The roster was completely exposed: if you're relying on Simmons and 40yo Manu as your 2nd and 3rd best player in a Conference Finals you might as well forfeit-- which the Spurs/Pop lowkey did..

[sasaint]

I agree, EDIT, EXPANDED ON IN LATER POST but worry about the FO and their history.

The same braintrust decided in 2007 that all their old, washed up assy free agents had to be re-signed on multi-year deals to defend "their" title with the roster completely intact despite those busters being minor elements of a title team.

And so thoroughly over the hill and rapidly declining old guys like Finley, Vaughn and Oberto got multi-year deals. While every other team had the goal of getting better and improving their roster to compete with the Spurs, the Spurs decided, "Nahhh. Let's stay the exact same, but older, slower and worse for it. These guys have earned it! We won for Fin!"

So I could easily see the Spurs FO conning themselves into the same thinking. "Well, Kawhi was hurt. So really we're just as good as GSW and need to bring everyone back for another go round! No need to get better, no other team will. On Parker! On Pau! On Millsie!"

Yes, I fear that is what they will do. I could be watching fewer Spurs' games next season.

[Mikeanaro]

Patty Mills 10-12 million? what the fuck..........

[TXstbobcat]

Patty Mills 10-12 million? what the fuck..........

Mills will get higher offers than that.

[TXstbobcat]

Yes, I fear that is what they will do. I could be watching fewer Spurs' games next season.

Pretty much every season after watching almost 100 Spurs games I say the same thing that I won't watch as many games the next year but after a break of 4 months, I end up fired up about the new season and watch every game.

[SpursforSix]

I'd take Cousins in a heartbeat. Head case but he's as good a post player as there is. And that's what the Spurs need to compete with GSW. Not going to outmatch Clay and Steph. Need to make it a post game.

[Mikeanaro]

Mills will get higher offers than that.
He could get a whole twin tower in Dubai too, as long as he is out of the team Im fine.

[Spurs9]

I'd take Cousins in a heartbeat. Head case but he's as good a post player as there is. And that's what the Spurs need to compete with GSW. Not going to outmatch Clay and Steph. Need to make it a post game.
Agreed, what would it take to get him?

[SpursforSix]

Agreed, what would it take to get him?

No idea. I'm not sure it's feasible. Just was responding to some comment above.

[TXstbobcat]

Agreed, what would it take to get him?

find the delorean with the flux capacitor and trade LMA to the kings for him.

[SAGirl]

Thanks for doing this objective. I thought without this reference they would have space but reality is that they don't if they want to flesh out the roster. I am not a fan or in the camp to pay Patty. I would reup Simmons within reason. He might be overpaid but is probably still worth retaining over Mills.

[SAGirl]

too early
It is too far ahead thus I also hadn't looked into it but the prospects for that FA class impact whether to be aggressive now or stand pat and just bring the entire crew back (sans maybe Manu if he retires, and Dedmon if he opts out, adding instead Milutinov and Hang a for example)... or do you reshape this team this off season and sacrifice several of the top contributors in this current team. it's an interesting topic.

[SAGirl]

Yes, I fear that is what they will do. I could be watching fewer Spurs' games next season.
Frankly I like the Spurs young players and Kawhi a lot. If they stand pat I am hoping more will be placed on their shoulders gradually and I want go watch them grow. It's actually Pop's doghouse that may make me lose interest.

[Ice009]

I wish the Spurs and people here listened to me earlier in the season when I wanted to try and get Cousins when Aldridge was playing like trash. Aldridge had that hot streak right after Christmas, should have tried to trade him there and then.

Cousins usually abuses the Warriors and he doesn't like them. Plus he likes Kawhi a lot, so I think it would have been a great match teaming them up. I know the league is moving to small ball, but I truly believe a real post player can still dominate. There just isn't too many of them left in the NBA.

[Nathan89]

I wish the Spurs and people here listened to me earlier in the season when I wanted to try and get Cousins when Aldridge was playing like trash. Aldridge had that hot streak right after Christmas, should have tried to trade him there and then.

Cousins usually abuses the Warriors and he doesn't like them. Plus he likes Kawhi a lot, so I think it would have been a great match teaming them up. I know the league is moving to small ball, but I truly believe a real post player can still dominate. There just isn't too many of them left in the NBA.

They would've never accepted that trade.

[sasaint]

Frankly I like the Spurs young players and Kawhi a lot. If they stand pat I am hoping more will be placed on their shoulders gradually and I want go watch them grow. It's actually Pop's doghouse that may make me lose interest.

Agree completely. :tu If Pop would ever give the young guys a real shot at consistent minutes, I would be very interested.

[sasaint]

They would've never accepted that trade.

They got a better deal from New Orleans?

[Nathan89]

They got a better deal from New Orleans?
Much better. They got a good pick and a rookie prospect.

[Snaq O'Meal]

I wish the Spurs and people here listened to me earlier in the season when I wanted to try and get Cousins when Aldridge was playing like trash. Aldridge had that hot streak right after Christmas, should have tried to trade him there and then.

Cousins usually abuses the Warriors and he doesn't like them. Plus he likes Kawhi a lot, so I think it would have been a great match teaming them up. I know the league is moving to small ball, but I truly believe a real post player can still dominate. There just isn't too many of them left in the NBA.

Kawhi and Boogie would be great together. The problem here is Pop. He hates big men with strong personalities.

[John B]

Boogie and Kawhi looks like a dynasty in the making like Kobe and Shaq. Make it happen RC :lobt2: