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06-05-2017, 01:52 PM
http://a3.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=%2Fphoto%2F2017%2F0531%2FPreseasonFPI.png&w=570
TEAM
WINS
LOSSES
WIN DIVISION
Patriots
11.8
4.2
92.3%
Dolphins
7.0
9.0
4.1%
Bills
6.8
9.1
3.2%
Jets
5.2
10.8
0.5%
The Patriots have won the AFC East in each of the past eight seasons, and FPI has them as overwhelming favorites to win a ninth consecutive crown. It's not just that the Patriots are seen as the clear top team in the league, it's that the remainder of the division (including a Dolphins team that reached the playoffs last season) is in the bottom third of the rankings heading into 2017.
TEAM
WINS
LOSSES
WIN DIVISION
Steelers
10.1
5.9
56.0%
Ravens
8.8
7.2
25.0%
Bengals
8.3
7.6
18.4%
Browns
4.8
11.2
0.6%
The AFC North is once again set to be a tough division, with only the Browns not projected to finish .500 or better. The Steelers are the preseason favorite to take the division for a second straight year, with the Ravens and Bengals fighting for second place. If the division title race comes down to the final week of the season, take note that Pittsburgh faces Cleveland for the third consecutive season, while the Ravens will host the Bengals in what our projections suggest could determine a wild-card berth.
TEAM
WINS
LOSSES
WIN DIVISION
Colts
8.5
7.4
36.0%
Titans
8.3
7.7
30.6%
Texans
7.8
8.2
22.5%
Jaguars
6.8
9.2
10.9%
The AFC South might end up being the NFL's most competitive division in 2017. All four teams have at least a 10 percent chance of winning the title, and none of FPI's predicted division winners has a worse chance to win than the Colts at 36 percent. Part of the reason each team has a chance to compete is the relatively easy schedule each team faces (at least based on what we know about these teams three months before the start of the season). FPI has four of the nine easiest schedules in the league belonging to the members of the AFC South.
TEAM
WINS
LOSSES
WIN DIVISION
Raiders
9.1
6.8
37.4%
Chiefs
9.1
6.9
36.3%
Broncos
7.8
8.1
15.2%
Chargers
7.6
8.4
11.1%
The AFC West is the home of the closest projected division-winner race. The Raiders are a slim favorite over the Chiefs by just more than 1 percent. The Broncos and Chargers also are seen as credible threats at just more than 15 and 11 percent, respectively. While the AFC South houses the teams projected to have the easiest schedules, the AFC West is the home of four of the 14 most difficult schedules, as projected by FPI.
TEAM
WINS
LOSSES
WIN DIVISION
Cowboys
9.4
6.6
46.4%
Giants
8.2
7.7
22.6%
Eagles
8.0
7.9
19.3%
Redskins
7.3
8.6
11.7%
The Cowboys are looking to become the first repeat champion in the NFC East since the Eagles won four consecutive titles between 2001 and 2004, and FPI gives Dallas a 46.4 percent chance to do so. "The field" of the Giants (22.6 percent chance), Eagles (19.3) and Redskins (11.7) collectively has a higher probability than the Cowboys (53.6), so don't bet against the title changing hands yet again.
TEAM
WINS
LOSSES
WIN DIVISION
Packers
9.9
6.1
60.1%
Vikings
8.5
7.4
24.4%
Lions
7.5
8.5
12.9%
Bears
5.7
10.3
2.6%
Not surprisingly, FPI's top team in the NFC is our projections' decisive choice to take its division. The Packers have the No. 2 offense, per FPI, and are favored in each of their six division games. The Vikings' defense ranks No. 2, according to FPI, but their 24th-ranked offense ensures their spot behind the Pack.
TEAM
WINS
LOSSES
WIN DIVISION
Falcons
9.3
6.7
40.3%
Panthers
8.8
7.2
28.8%
Saints
8.0
8.0
16.5%
Buccaneers
7.7
8.2
14.3%
Here's another division FPI sees as being wide-open. The defending NFC South and NFC champion Falcons are favored to repeat, but do so in just more than 40 percent of simulations. The Panthers are expected to bounce back after a disappointing 6-10 season that followed their Super Bowl appearance, and are projected to win the division 28.8 percent of the time. The Saints and Buccaneers are also reasonable threats, at roughly one-in-six and one-in-seven chances, respectively.
TEAM
WINS
LOSSES
WIN DIVISION
Seahawks
10.2
5.7
75.8%
Cardinals
8.0
8.0
18.7%
Rams
6.0
10.0
4.0%
49ers
5.1
10.9
1.5%
The Seahawks hold the league's second-highest chance to win their division at 75.8 percent, trailing only the Patriots at 92.3 percent. FPI projects the Cardinals to be the only real threat to the Hawks for the division -- but it is less than a one-in-five chance. Neither the Rams nor the 49ers are viewed as credible threats, and both reside in the bottom four of FPI's rankings.
http://www.espn.com/i/mlb/infographics/greyline.png2017 playoff probabilities
TEAM
PLAYOFFS
WIN DIVISION
WILD CARD
NO. 1 SEED
Patriots
96.2%
92.3%
3.9%
51.1%
Steelers
75.9%
56.0%
19.8%
15.2%
Raiders
56.4%
37.4%
19.0%
7.4%
Chiefs
56.3%
36.3%
20.1%
6.6%
Ravens
48.6%
25.0%
23.6%
4.5%
Colts
47.4%
36.0%
11.3%
3.5%
Bengals
39.0%
18.4%
20.6%
2.7%
Titans
41.8%
30.6%
11.3%
2.5%
Broncos
29.8%
15.2%
14.6%
1.9%
Texans
32.2%
22.5%
9.7%
1.5%
Chargers
24.6%
11.1%
13.5%
1.2%
Dolphins
16.7%
4.1%
12.7%
0.8%
Bills
14.5%
3.2%
11.3%
0.8%
Jaguars
16.6%
10.9%
5.7%
0.4%
Jets
2.4%
0.5%
1.9%
<0.1%
Browns
1.8%
0.6%
1.2%
<0.1%
The Patriots, as the No. 1 team in FPI and an overwhelming favorite to capture their division (92.3 percent), are also the most likely team to make the playoffs in the AFC. They are also a slight majority favorite to earn the top seed in the conference and home-field advantage throughout the conference portion of the playoffs. The Steelers are the second-most likely playoff participant, as either a division winner or wild card. The two most likely AFC wild-card teams also come out of the North, with the Ravens (23.6 percent) and Bengals (20.6) projected to break through. Rounding out the top five are the Chiefs (20.1) and Raiders (19) -- whoever misses out on the division title there is a strong contender for a wild card.
TEAM
PLAYOFFS
WIN DIVISION
WILD CARD
NO. 1 SEED
Seahawks
83.5%
75.8%
7.7%
22.8%
Packers
73.9%
60.1%
13.8%
19.1%
Cowboys
63.2%
46.4%
16.8%
13.2%
Falcons
59.1%
40.3%
18.8%
11.2%
Panthers
47.9%
28.8%
19.1%
7.3%
Vikings
42.9%
24.4%
18.5%
5.2%
Giants
38.4%
22.6%
15.7%
4.6%
Eagles
34.2%
19.3%
15.0%
3.7%
Cardinals
33.2%
18.7%
14.5%
3.0%
Saints
31.9%
16.5%
15.4%
3.0%
Buccaneers
27.9%
14.3%
13.5%
2.6%
Lions
24.6%
12.9%
11.7%
2.1%
Redskins
23.0%
11.7%
11.3%
1.8%
Rams
7.9%
4.0%
3.9%
0.2%
Bears
5.5%
2.6%
2.9%
0.2%
49ers
3.0%
1.5%
1.5%
0.1%
Despite being the NFC's top team, according to FPI, the Packers are second in probability to make the playoffs within their conference. How is this possible? Well, the Pack plays in a tougher division and faces a more difficult schedule (15th easiest) than the Seahawks (third easiest), which also plays into the Hawks' favor when projecting the No. 1 seed. The Seahawks are a 22.8 percent favorite to earn home-field advantage, topping the Packers' 19.1 percent chance. The wild-card race is wide-open, as 12 of the NFC's 16 teams have at least a 10 percent chance of earning a playoff berth that way. The NFC South pair of Carolina (19.1 percent) and Atlanta (18.8) are the two most likely candidates to earn a wild card -- though one will more than likely earn its spot by winning the division. Outside of the Panthers and Falcons, the Vikings (18.5 percent) are is the next most likely to claim the No. 5 or No. 6 seed.
Super Bowl
Super Bowl LII Probability
TEAM
REACH SUPER BOWL
WIN SUPER BOWL
Patriots
50.7%
34.7%
Packers
19.6%
9.8%
Seahawks
22.8%
9.6%
Steelers
15.4%
8.5%
Cowboys
13.5%
5.7%
Falcons
12.5%
5.2%
Raiders
8.1%
4.3%
Chiefs
7.7%
4.1%
Panthers
6.7%
2.5%
Ravens
4.3%
2.0%
Vikings
4.6%
1.7%
Giants
4.9%
1.7%
Colts
3.0%
1.3%
Bengals
2.5%
1.0%
Eagles
3.5%
1.0%
Saints
2.9%
1.0%
Titans
2.1%
0.9%
Buccaneers
2.6%
0.8%
Broncos
1.9%
0.8%
Cardinals
2.4%
0.7%
Redskins
1.8%
0.7%
Texans
1.5%
0.6%
Lions
1.9%
0.6%
Chargers
1.0%
0.4%
Dolphins
0.7%
0.3%
Bills
0.5%
0.1%
Jaguars
0.3%
0.1%
Rams
0.2%
<0.1%
Bears
0.2%
<0.1%
Jets
0.1%
<0.1%
49ers
<0.1%
<0.1%
Browns
<0.1%
<0.1%
With a clear lead atop the team rankings, it should be no surprise that the Patriots are also FPI's early favorite to both reach and win Super Bowl LII in Minnesota. New England is a slight majority favorite (50.7 percent) to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, and a 34.7 percent favorite to win it. The only other team in the AFC with a greater than 10 percent chance of reaching the Super Bowl is the Steelers at 15.4 percent (FPI says the Steelers have an 8.5 percent chance to win it). The NFC is much closer, with the Seahawks (22.8 percent) and Packers (19.6) leading the pack and the Cowboys (13.5) and Falcons (12.5) rounding out the top four most likely Super Bowl candidates. Despite the Seahawks projecting as more likely to get to the big game, FPI has the Packers as the team in the NFC most likely to win it, at 9.8 percent to the Seahawks' 9.6 percent.
TEAM
WINS
LOSSES
WIN DIVISION
Patriots
11.8
4.2
92.3%
Dolphins
7.0
9.0
4.1%
Bills
6.8
9.1
3.2%
Jets
5.2
10.8
0.5%
The Patriots have won the AFC East in each of the past eight seasons, and FPI has them as overwhelming favorites to win a ninth consecutive crown. It's not just that the Patriots are seen as the clear top team in the league, it's that the remainder of the division (including a Dolphins team that reached the playoffs last season) is in the bottom third of the rankings heading into 2017.
TEAM
WINS
LOSSES
WIN DIVISION
Steelers
10.1
5.9
56.0%
Ravens
8.8
7.2
25.0%
Bengals
8.3
7.6
18.4%
Browns
4.8
11.2
0.6%
The AFC North is once again set to be a tough division, with only the Browns not projected to finish .500 or better. The Steelers are the preseason favorite to take the division for a second straight year, with the Ravens and Bengals fighting for second place. If the division title race comes down to the final week of the season, take note that Pittsburgh faces Cleveland for the third consecutive season, while the Ravens will host the Bengals in what our projections suggest could determine a wild-card berth.
TEAM
WINS
LOSSES
WIN DIVISION
Colts
8.5
7.4
36.0%
Titans
8.3
7.7
30.6%
Texans
7.8
8.2
22.5%
Jaguars
6.8
9.2
10.9%
The AFC South might end up being the NFL's most competitive division in 2017. All four teams have at least a 10 percent chance of winning the title, and none of FPI's predicted division winners has a worse chance to win than the Colts at 36 percent. Part of the reason each team has a chance to compete is the relatively easy schedule each team faces (at least based on what we know about these teams three months before the start of the season). FPI has four of the nine easiest schedules in the league belonging to the members of the AFC South.
TEAM
WINS
LOSSES
WIN DIVISION
Raiders
9.1
6.8
37.4%
Chiefs
9.1
6.9
36.3%
Broncos
7.8
8.1
15.2%
Chargers
7.6
8.4
11.1%
The AFC West is the home of the closest projected division-winner race. The Raiders are a slim favorite over the Chiefs by just more than 1 percent. The Broncos and Chargers also are seen as credible threats at just more than 15 and 11 percent, respectively. While the AFC South houses the teams projected to have the easiest schedules, the AFC West is the home of four of the 14 most difficult schedules, as projected by FPI.
TEAM
WINS
LOSSES
WIN DIVISION
Cowboys
9.4
6.6
46.4%
Giants
8.2
7.7
22.6%
Eagles
8.0
7.9
19.3%
Redskins
7.3
8.6
11.7%
The Cowboys are looking to become the first repeat champion in the NFC East since the Eagles won four consecutive titles between 2001 and 2004, and FPI gives Dallas a 46.4 percent chance to do so. "The field" of the Giants (22.6 percent chance), Eagles (19.3) and Redskins (11.7) collectively has a higher probability than the Cowboys (53.6), so don't bet against the title changing hands yet again.
TEAM
WINS
LOSSES
WIN DIVISION
Packers
9.9
6.1
60.1%
Vikings
8.5
7.4
24.4%
Lions
7.5
8.5
12.9%
Bears
5.7
10.3
2.6%
Not surprisingly, FPI's top team in the NFC is our projections' decisive choice to take its division. The Packers have the No. 2 offense, per FPI, and are favored in each of their six division games. The Vikings' defense ranks No. 2, according to FPI, but their 24th-ranked offense ensures their spot behind the Pack.
TEAM
WINS
LOSSES
WIN DIVISION
Falcons
9.3
6.7
40.3%
Panthers
8.8
7.2
28.8%
Saints
8.0
8.0
16.5%
Buccaneers
7.7
8.2
14.3%
Here's another division FPI sees as being wide-open. The defending NFC South and NFC champion Falcons are favored to repeat, but do so in just more than 40 percent of simulations. The Panthers are expected to bounce back after a disappointing 6-10 season that followed their Super Bowl appearance, and are projected to win the division 28.8 percent of the time. The Saints and Buccaneers are also reasonable threats, at roughly one-in-six and one-in-seven chances, respectively.
TEAM
WINS
LOSSES
WIN DIVISION
Seahawks
10.2
5.7
75.8%
Cardinals
8.0
8.0
18.7%
Rams
6.0
10.0
4.0%
49ers
5.1
10.9
1.5%
The Seahawks hold the league's second-highest chance to win their division at 75.8 percent, trailing only the Patriots at 92.3 percent. FPI projects the Cardinals to be the only real threat to the Hawks for the division -- but it is less than a one-in-five chance. Neither the Rams nor the 49ers are viewed as credible threats, and both reside in the bottom four of FPI's rankings.
http://www.espn.com/i/mlb/infographics/greyline.png2017 playoff probabilities
TEAM
PLAYOFFS
WIN DIVISION
WILD CARD
NO. 1 SEED
Patriots
96.2%
92.3%
3.9%
51.1%
Steelers
75.9%
56.0%
19.8%
15.2%
Raiders
56.4%
37.4%
19.0%
7.4%
Chiefs
56.3%
36.3%
20.1%
6.6%
Ravens
48.6%
25.0%
23.6%
4.5%
Colts
47.4%
36.0%
11.3%
3.5%
Bengals
39.0%
18.4%
20.6%
2.7%
Titans
41.8%
30.6%
11.3%
2.5%
Broncos
29.8%
15.2%
14.6%
1.9%
Texans
32.2%
22.5%
9.7%
1.5%
Chargers
24.6%
11.1%
13.5%
1.2%
Dolphins
16.7%
4.1%
12.7%
0.8%
Bills
14.5%
3.2%
11.3%
0.8%
Jaguars
16.6%
10.9%
5.7%
0.4%
Jets
2.4%
0.5%
1.9%
<0.1%
Browns
1.8%
0.6%
1.2%
<0.1%
The Patriots, as the No. 1 team in FPI and an overwhelming favorite to capture their division (92.3 percent), are also the most likely team to make the playoffs in the AFC. They are also a slight majority favorite to earn the top seed in the conference and home-field advantage throughout the conference portion of the playoffs. The Steelers are the second-most likely playoff participant, as either a division winner or wild card. The two most likely AFC wild-card teams also come out of the North, with the Ravens (23.6 percent) and Bengals (20.6) projected to break through. Rounding out the top five are the Chiefs (20.1) and Raiders (19) -- whoever misses out on the division title there is a strong contender for a wild card.
TEAM
PLAYOFFS
WIN DIVISION
WILD CARD
NO. 1 SEED
Seahawks
83.5%
75.8%
7.7%
22.8%
Packers
73.9%
60.1%
13.8%
19.1%
Cowboys
63.2%
46.4%
16.8%
13.2%
Falcons
59.1%
40.3%
18.8%
11.2%
Panthers
47.9%
28.8%
19.1%
7.3%
Vikings
42.9%
24.4%
18.5%
5.2%
Giants
38.4%
22.6%
15.7%
4.6%
Eagles
34.2%
19.3%
15.0%
3.7%
Cardinals
33.2%
18.7%
14.5%
3.0%
Saints
31.9%
16.5%
15.4%
3.0%
Buccaneers
27.9%
14.3%
13.5%
2.6%
Lions
24.6%
12.9%
11.7%
2.1%
Redskins
23.0%
11.7%
11.3%
1.8%
Rams
7.9%
4.0%
3.9%
0.2%
Bears
5.5%
2.6%
2.9%
0.2%
49ers
3.0%
1.5%
1.5%
0.1%
Despite being the NFC's top team, according to FPI, the Packers are second in probability to make the playoffs within their conference. How is this possible? Well, the Pack plays in a tougher division and faces a more difficult schedule (15th easiest) than the Seahawks (third easiest), which also plays into the Hawks' favor when projecting the No. 1 seed. The Seahawks are a 22.8 percent favorite to earn home-field advantage, topping the Packers' 19.1 percent chance. The wild-card race is wide-open, as 12 of the NFC's 16 teams have at least a 10 percent chance of earning a playoff berth that way. The NFC South pair of Carolina (19.1 percent) and Atlanta (18.8) are the two most likely candidates to earn a wild card -- though one will more than likely earn its spot by winning the division. Outside of the Panthers and Falcons, the Vikings (18.5 percent) are is the next most likely to claim the No. 5 or No. 6 seed.
Super Bowl
Super Bowl LII Probability
TEAM
REACH SUPER BOWL
WIN SUPER BOWL
Patriots
50.7%
34.7%
Packers
19.6%
9.8%
Seahawks
22.8%
9.6%
Steelers
15.4%
8.5%
Cowboys
13.5%
5.7%
Falcons
12.5%
5.2%
Raiders
8.1%
4.3%
Chiefs
7.7%
4.1%
Panthers
6.7%
2.5%
Ravens
4.3%
2.0%
Vikings
4.6%
1.7%
Giants
4.9%
1.7%
Colts
3.0%
1.3%
Bengals
2.5%
1.0%
Eagles
3.5%
1.0%
Saints
2.9%
1.0%
Titans
2.1%
0.9%
Buccaneers
2.6%
0.8%
Broncos
1.9%
0.8%
Cardinals
2.4%
0.7%
Redskins
1.8%
0.7%
Texans
1.5%
0.6%
Lions
1.9%
0.6%
Chargers
1.0%
0.4%
Dolphins
0.7%
0.3%
Bills
0.5%
0.1%
Jaguars
0.3%
0.1%
Rams
0.2%
<0.1%
Bears
0.2%
<0.1%
Jets
0.1%
<0.1%
49ers
<0.1%
<0.1%
Browns
<0.1%
<0.1%
With a clear lead atop the team rankings, it should be no surprise that the Patriots are also FPI's early favorite to both reach and win Super Bowl LII in Minnesota. New England is a slight majority favorite (50.7 percent) to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, and a 34.7 percent favorite to win it. The only other team in the AFC with a greater than 10 percent chance of reaching the Super Bowl is the Steelers at 15.4 percent (FPI says the Steelers have an 8.5 percent chance to win it). The NFC is much closer, with the Seahawks (22.8 percent) and Packers (19.6) leading the pack and the Cowboys (13.5) and Falcons (12.5) rounding out the top four most likely Super Bowl candidates. Despite the Seahawks projecting as more likely to get to the big game, FPI has the Packers as the team in the NFC most likely to win it, at 9.8 percent to the Seahawks' 9.6 percent.