Outside of injuries. Why would we not see the Warriors vs Spurs II next May?

[Ditty]

I don't think any free agent is going to move the needle much unless a big name free agent goes to Houston or LA.

If we get CP3 it's pretty much a wrap imo.

Suns - Are going to stink again.
Kings - Will probably be even worse.
Lakers - :lmao
Timberwolves - Might make the 8th seed or 7th seed because Towns is special. Wiggins is good, not great.
Mavs - They don't know if they are trying to win or rebuild right now.
Pelicans - They could be interesting, but they might lose their third best player & Cousins is Cousins. I think they make the playoffs though.
Nuggets - A few nice players but they will still be rebuilding.
Trailblazers - Great backcourt. A lot of meh players outside of that.
Grizzlies - Not a lot of talent. Conley is a beast though. Might lose Z-Bo. Gasol can be soft as we know. Carter might show his age. Parsons is never healthy.
Thunder - Their best big man might be in prison. Oladipo is not good. Westbrook is Westbrook. Roberson still isn't going to ever learn how to shoot. Could be interesting if they would get an all star caliber player, but still won't be enough.
Jazz - They might lose their two best players. Even if they don't they are not talented enough.
Clippers - They will sign some over the hill has beens that aren't even a fit if CP3 stays. Griffin could take off anyways.
Rockets - Best shooting guard in the game. Meh, high risk, and aging talent around him that rely too much on the three. Their GM is an idiot.
Spurs - Second best small forward in the game. Not having a healthy experienced point guard could hurt as much as I like Murray. Aldridge is what he is, and could be the x-factor again. CP3 could possibly make things much easier. Our young & inexperienced talent got experience against the champions.
Warriors - Might be see a slight decline in their role players offensive game, but their big four are going to even be better with their second year together imo. Will Kerr be back?

Thoughts?

[pookenstein]

If we end up third, play the Rockets in the second ad they get hot for four games.

[Ditty]

If we end up third, play the Rockets in the second ad they get hot for four games.

Yeah, I failed to mention that I think the Rockets would be our biggest obstacle why we would not get back to the conference finals.

[Poolboy5623]

The Spurs aren't getting CP3...so add the Clippers to that list. When healthy they are a tough matchup for the Spurs.

[cd98]

You never know what can happen in free agency or the draft to change the balance of powers, though there does not appear to be any game changing free agents and the drafted players usually take a few years to improve a team's record.

[cd98]

Yeah, I failed to mention that I think the Rockets would be our biggest obstacle why we would not get back to the conference finals.

Yes, except it's hard to fear a D Antoni system in the playoffs. The Thunder could improve their roster and be tough to beat.

[cjw]

Clippers literally cannot hold ground unless they bring back Redick. He's going to get stupid money from a team out east.

Thunder are also in a bad spot from a cap perspective. Essentially took all that money they could have paid Harden years ago and spent it on Oladipo and Kanter.

I think it's the Rockets and nobody else.

[TimDunkem]

Clippers literally cannot hold ground unless they bring back Redick. He's going to get stupid money from a team out east.

Thunder are also in a bad spot from a cap perspective. Essentially took all that money they could have paid Harden years ago and spent it on Oladipo and Kanter.

I think it's the Rockets and nobody else.

Clippers can easily sign and trade J.J. for better or equal talent. No the Clippers are not contenders, but there's nothing to show that they'll suddenly become an easier match up for the Spurs.

[TimDunkem]

With that said, yes, the Spurs are still the favorites to face GS in the WCF.

But they're not going to the Finals with this same squad one year older. Too much dead weight, tbh.

[cjw]

Clippers can easily sign and trade J.J. for better or equal talent. No the Clippers are not contenders, but there's nothing to show that they'll suddenly become an easier match up for the Spurs.

If he signs with a team with ample cap space, they'll get nothing for him. S&T only works if with a team short cap space or over the cap.

[TimDunkem]

And who would that be? What teams will spend that money and/or spurn their own free agents for Reddick? Brooklyn? Miami? Is there really anyone else?

If any team with cap signs Reddick outright, the Clippers can still upgrade. You can sign free agents before bringing back your guys you have Bird Rights to.

And, again, still doesn't make the match up any easier. Crawford and Austin Rivers own us, ffs. DeAndre and Blake will have a field day for whoever we pick up at Center from the scrap heap too.

[EIC]

I feel like this team over-achieved last year. Outside of Kawhi, it's a pretty sorry roster, tbh. Clippers were banged up last year. If they can bring back that squad, stay healthy, and maybe add a Melo, they will face GSW in the WCF, IMO.

Absent massive changes to the Spurs' roster, I think they get bounced in the second round by either the Rockets or Clips (assuming the Clips stay mostly intact).

[Chinook]

I don't expect the Spurs to get worse, certainly.

[cjw]

And who would that be? What teams will spend that money and/or spurn their own free agents for Reddick? Brooklyn? Miami? Is there really anyone else?

If any team with cap signs Reddick outright, the Clippers can still upgrade. You can sign free agents before bringing back your guys you have Bird Rights to.

And, again, still doesn't make the match up any easier. Crawford and Austin Rivers own us, ffs. DeAndre and Blake will have a field day for whoever we pick up at Center from the scrap heap too.

The Clippers have $107.6 million of active contracts / holds including CP3 and Blake. Yes, they can resign Redick with Bird rights. But if Redick walks and they can't get a S&T for him, they literally have no money outside of the MLE unless they move Crawford or Rivers, and even then likely not enough to make a big signing.

And teams with cap space? There will be plenty - did a whole rundown in a Simmons thread, but the headline numbers now are misleading as guys will opt out or there are team options that will be declined / players cut at little to no cost. Numbers on Spotrac also include cap holds.

[TD 21]

As convincing and impressive as game 6 versus Rockets was, let's not pretend that game 5 wasn't a coin flip and spearheaded by a player likely to retire or that Clippers haven't given Spurs as much difficulty as anyone.

Spurs have best player and are more consistent and stable than Clippers or Rockets, therefore being more likely to secure 2 seed, but at this writing, I see the odds being something like: Spurs - 35-40%, Clippers and Rockets: 30-35%.

[MaNu4Tres]

Spurs will be better w/ or without CP3.

However, if SA has to shed DG and can't retain Simmons in the process of getting CP3, I question whether or not they'll be better. Spurs will be losing two of their top 3 perimeter defenders and that will hurt more than the average fan wants to believe. Average fan will point at CP3 star status and how glorious that looks on paper, which it does. But losing 2 of your top 3 perimeter defenders will hurt the Spurs immensely. You need 3-4 above average perimeter defenders ( who aren't offensive liabilities) to have a chance vs the one team that matters most.

I even think Spurs will be better if they lose Mills and can't sign CP3. Murray will be a lot better, so will Kyle, Forbes, Simmons, and Bertans. Kawhi will be pissed off after his injury and losing out on the MVP. He'll be a beast. If they target who I think they are targeting, they should net a contributor this draft in the front court and a motivated contract year LA should show up in shape if he has any ounce of passion for the game.

[cjw]

Except CP3 is an excellent perimeter defender. If the cost is Green and Simmons (and Mills and Gasol) you do it. And you try to do it while retaining Green or Simmons even more.

[MaNu4Tres]

Except CP3 is an excellent perimeter defender. If the cost is Green and Simmons (and Mills and Gasol) you do it. And you try to do it while retaining Green or Simmons even more.

CP3 used to be an excellent perimeter defender, now he's just good. But his size limits his defensive versatility -- he can only check PGs. If Spurs can find a way to keep Green and or Simmons while getting Paul, that's the route they need to go -- even if that means no Parker.

[TD 21]

Spurs will be better w/ or without CP3.

However, if SA has to shed DG and can't retain Simmons in the process of getting CP3, I question whether or not they'll be better. Spurs will be losing two of their top 3 perimeter defenders and that will hurt more than the average fan wants to believe. Average fan will point at CP3 star status and how glorious that looks on paper, which it does. But losing 2 of your top 3 perimeter defenders will hurt the Spurs immensely. You need 3-4 above average perimeter defenders ( who aren't offensive liabilities) to have a chance vs the one team that matters most.

I even think Spurs will be better if they lose Mills and can't sign CP3. Murray will be a lot better, so will Kyle, Forbes, Simmons, and Bertans. Kawhi will be pissed off after his injury and losing out on the MVP. He'll be a beast. If they target who I think they are targeting, they should net a contributor this draft in the front court and a motivated contract year LA should show up in shape if he has any ounce of passion for the game.

I take it you haven't seen my solution to this? I've got it all figured out. :lol


There is a way to keep Green: Paul could sign a 1+1 contract, taking roughly $25M (highest they could give him if Gasol salary dumped, Forbes waived and all free agents renounced), opt out after the first year and sign a 4 year max. Of course, they'd have to assure him that they'd offer that even if he suffered a potential career altering injury. He'd lose about $10M next season, but gain essentially a 5th season at over $41M.

They need to preface this offer by saying, that while they could trade Green to attain max cap space, they'd obviously be weakening the team and somewhat defeating the purpose of this in the process.

[SpurOutofTownFan]

We all thought it was crazy when rumors started that KD might actually sign with the Warriors and leave lots of money on the table with OKC and we know what happened. Same thing can happen with CP3 to Spurs tbh

[cutewizard]

CP3 get it on.....