Solar Power Will Kill Coal Sooner Than You Think

[RandomGuy]

Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s outlook shows renewables will be cheaper almost everywhere in just a few years.


Solar power, once so costly it only made economic sense in spaceships, is becoming cheap enough that it will push coal and even natural-gas plants out of business faster than previously forecast.

That’s the conclusion of a Bloomberg New Energy Finance outlook for how fuel and electricity markets will evolve by 2040. The research group estimated solar already rivals the cost of new coal power plants in Germany and the U.S. and by 2021 will do so in quick-growing markets such as China and India.

The scenario suggests green energy is taking root more quickly than most experts anticipate. It would mean that global carbon dioxide pollution from fossil fuels may decline after 2026, a contrast with the International Energy Agency’s central forecast, which sees emissions rising steadily for decades to come.

“Costs of new energy technologies are falling in a way that it’s more a matter of when than if,” said Seb Henbest, a researcher at BNEF in London and lead author of the report.

...
(see rest of it at:)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-15/solar-power-will-kill-coal-sooner-than-you-think

[boutons_deux]

Coal Falls Hard As Renewables Continue to Surge, Oil & Gas Giant BP Reports


https://cleantechnica.com/2017/06/15/coal-falls-hard-renewables-continue-surge-oil-gas-giant-bp-reports/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+IM-cleantechnica+%28CleanTechnica%29

[boutons_deux]

Wind, solar produce 10 percent of US electricity for first time

http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/337831-wind-solar-produce-10-percent-of-us-electricity-for-first-time

... while Trash + Repugs push BigCarbon and killing PV and wind promotion.

BigOil subsidies, tax breaks annually still outpace assistance to wind and solar power. That's going to get worse.

[Thread]

Ain't nothing wrong with having every source at our disposal. Suppresses the cost at the switch.

[RandomGuy]

Ain't nothing wrong with having every source at our disposal. Suppresses the cost at the switch.

Coal costs far more than it is worth. It is heavily subsidized by the ability to pollute without fully paying for cleaning it up.

[boutons_deux]

Coal costs far more than it is worth. It is heavily subsidized by the ability to pollute without fully paying for cleaning it up.

aka, "external costs" born by taxpayers eventually.

BigCoal/BigElectric has for decades hired enough Congressional "employees" so that strongly toxic coal ash is not considered toxic, not regulated.

[Thread]

Coal costs far more than it is worth. It is heavily subsidized by the ability to pollute without fully paying for cleaning it up.

FAKE NEWS

[Fabbs]

Nope.
The War Pigs / Coal Pigs gonna keep this going for years.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O21FhciGDMM

[Blake]

I thought solar was gonna be bigger faster than it has.

[boutons_deux]

I thought solar was gonna be bigger faster than it has.

distributed solar has been crippled or blocked in most red/slave Repug states, esp all across the sun belt

And investment in "intelligent" and new electrical distribution networks has clearly lagged. This includes trying to move a super-abundance of wind power in some states to populated centers.

Distributed solar could have a real impediment if BigElectric lets wind power hold or reduce prices, meaning distributed solar would have a long payback.

otoh, real estate companies are finding the homes for resale with solar installed receive a serious premium.

Some developers are selling new homes with solar panels installed, rolling the solar cost into the mortgage.

USA could really use a Manhattan project and huge govt/state intervention in renewables, but the oligarchy getting rich with status quo makes policy.

Although USA has plenty of room on land for wind power (unlike Europe that has gone offshore wind primarily), there are finally serious US projects offshore wind.

[RandomGuy]

FAKE NEWS

I know you are a troll, but dude (dudette?) this is still weak.

[RandomGuy]

I thought solar was gonna be bigger faster than it has.

Lot of people did.

[spurraider21]

to be fair solar irradiance has been declining for about 20 years or so :downspin:

[DMC]

I'm all for solar power. Who wants to give up their land to allow the city to build solar array farms so they can shut down the coal burning power plants? Or do you mean individuals putting solar panels on roofs with a large battery bank somewhere in the back of the property?

I have no problem with solar power, none. I just don't think it's ready for prime time.

[TeyshaBlue]

I wanted to go rooftop solar at my house. Some Tesla owned outfit wanted $50 grand.
I asked him if that was real or dog-dollars?

[boutons_deux]

I wanted to go rooftop solar at my house. Some Tesla owned outfit wanted $50 grand.
I asked him if that was real or dog-dollars?

solarcity is the one Telsa bought

[DPG21920]

I wanted to go rooftop solar at my house. Some Tesla owned outfit wanted $50 grand.
I asked him if that was real or dog-dollars?

What will/should happen is you will have to make an investment across all things (not just home) for this to pay off. Your home, car, etc...You will pay upfront for it, but over time you will save money and live a cleaner more sustainable life.

Your roof will be solar, not just panels attached to the roof. That will power everything at a fraction of the cost of your normal energy, charge your car, etc..You will have to view the net benefit (I.E. The cost of a normal roof today + energy bill vs a more expensive solar roof + lower cost with a break even in say 5 years)

[boutons_deux]

One advantage of rooftop solar in hellish Texas is that the panels shade the roof, esp in older homes without modern insulation.

If one is buying rooftop solar, then that means the rooftop isn't shaded by tress.

[DPG21920]

One advantage of rooftop solar in hellish Texas is that the panels shade the roof, esp in older homes without modern insulation.

If one is buying rooftop solar, then that means the rooftop isn't shaded by tress.

Did you see the Tesla Solar Roof Shingle? I think that is where things are going. The actual roof shingles will no longer be comp shingle or slate or concrete or tile. They will actually be solar shingles installed basically like a normal roof (and made to look like whatever you want).

[Blake]

I wanted to go rooftop solar at my house. Some Tesla owned outfit wanted $50 grand.
I asked him if that was real or dog-dollars?

BigSolar

[DMC]

What will/should happen is you will have to make an investment across all things (not just home) for this to pay off. Your home, car, etc...You will pay upfront for it, but over time you will save money and live a cleaner more sustainable life.

Your roof will be solar, not just panels attached to the roof. That will power everything at a fraction of the cost of your normal energy, charge your car, etc..You will have to view the net benefit (I.E. The cost of a normal roof today + energy bill vs a more expensive solar roof + lower cost with a break even in say 5 years)

Actually what will have to happen is the term "alternative" will have to be removed. When you have options, you will go with the easier one, most of the time. If people planned for the future we'd be a different society completely.

[DPG21920]

Actually what will have to happen is the term "alternative" will have to be removed. When you have options, you will go with the easier one, most of the time. If people planned for the future we'd be a different society completely.

That's a good point. But there are ways around that which they tried with rebates, etc...I equate it to 4K TV. Just not enough content to go to one even though people know it's better.

[AaronY]

I wanted to go rooftop solar at my house. Some Tesla owned outfit wanted $50 grand.
I asked him if that was real or dog-dollars?
We wants to do it too but our house shape isn't right apparently angles are too steep and not facing the right way or something.

[boutons_deux]

We wants to do it too but our house shape isn't right apparently angles are too steep and not facing the right way or something.

I don't think the steepness would be the primary obstacle, but not facing south would be.

[DMC]

Did you see the Tesla Solar Roof Shingle? I think that is where things are going. The actual roof shingles will no longer be comp shingle or slate or concrete or tile. They will actually be solar shingles installed basically like a normal roof (and made to look like whatever you want).

Solar suffered the initial hype driven scam fest and everyone and their brother started up a solar company of some sort. They are mostly bankrupt now but they all walked away with investor money. For this reason investors are hesitant to invest in solar if it's not something like First Solar or a large well established company that doesn't really reach for private investment. This is why technologies like quantum dot and such are dragging along. If the feds fund it, suddenly everyone in Texas is a quantum dot manufacturer or wholesaler, who just needs a bit of private funding.

I'm ok with big corporations like Tesla driving it, because although the cost to consumers will be manipulated by price fixing, the technology will be grown much faster than privately funded startup ventures looking for a short term result.

[DPG21920]

Side note: I always found that so funny about satellite dishes. Like if there's a tree in front of your roof you can't have it. I'm like, you have no problem pinging signals from outer space through whatever is in the atmosphere but a tree is the deal breaker :lol?

I mean, I get it and I know there is more to it than that, but just a funny thought.

[DMC]

That's a good point. But there are ways around that which they tried with rebates, etc...I equate it to 4K TV. Just not enough content to go to one even though people know it's better.

If you approach the average homeowner and say "I'll lower your 10 year cost of living by 30% if you pay me 50K now" a large number of those people are going to A) not trust you'll even be around in 10 years to back your guarantee and B) not trust they will be around in 10 years to justify it. People want short term gains. Solar is going to have to offer payment plans that mirror electric bills that eventually wane off to just service costs. For that to happen, someone like Tesla will have to invest in the technology like Time Warner did with cable and set out to install it under contract.

[boutons_deux]

Side note: I always found that so funny about satellite dishes.

I was amazed in Iceland to see that satellite dishes were tilted almost perpendicular to the ground, pointed at the horizon.

[DMC]

Side note: I always found that so funny about satellite dishes. Like if there's a tree in front of your roof you can't have it. I'm like, you have no problem pinging signals from outer space through whatever is in the atmosphere but a tree is the deal breaker :lol?

I mean, I get it and I know there is more to it than that, but just a funny thought.

Same with rubber tires. People think they are safe in a car because the tires are rubber, lightning won't get them, but it has no problem making it that mile or more through the air, somehow that inch of rubber is going to be the deal breaker. In reality is just not the easiest path to ground.

[RandomGuy]

I'm all for solar power. Who wants to give up their land to allow the city to build solar array farms so they can shut down the coal burning power plants? Or do you mean individuals putting solar panels on roofs with a large battery bank somewhere in the back of the property?

I have no problem with solar power, none. I just don't think it's ready for prime time.

Both are going to, and are, happening.

As for giving up land, the farmers and ranchers giving up land for wind seem to be pretty happy with their rent checks. I imagine if land has to be purchased or rented, the price will be fair, certainly as fair as mineral royalties for coal.

I am personally pricing out a rooftop/battery system.

[RandomGuy]

If you approach the average homeowner and say "I'll lower your 10 year cost of living by 30% if you pay me 50K now" a large number of those people are going to A) not trust you'll even be around in 10 years to back your guarantee and B) not trust they will be around in 10 years to justify it. People want short term gains. Solar is going to have to offer payment plans that mirror electric bills that eventually wane off to just service costs. For that to happen, someone like Tesla will have to invest in the technology like Time Warner did with cable and set out to install it under contract.

Payment plan is exactly what I am looking at. "we will build it and finance it, you simply make payments"

They balance the size of the system versus your utility bills. I may overbuild a bit, as wife and I are thinking of spending money on an electric vehicle for her commute.

[DMC]

Both are going to, and are, happening.

As for giving up land, the farmers and ranchers giving up land for wind seem to be pretty happy with their rent checks. I imagine if land has to be purchased or rented, the price will be fair, certainly as fair as mineral royalties for coal.

I am personally pricing out a rooftop/battery system.

Share the price here if you don't mind.

Some farmers have given up land for solar as well, to the tune of about 25K per year per 50 acres. That's great, but when you have mineral rights you're sitting on money you can just cash in basically. Solar requires that the company who made the contract with you actually remain economically viable, and outside of a few key players, solar companies rely largely on financial assistance from "we must move to solar" people. Solar will have to be profitable. Of course they said the same for recycling and now most cities have a recycling program in effect in residential and commercial areas. Sometimes profit comes from savings in other areas.

Like I said, I am all for solar, but the sun doesn't shine all day every day. It would need to be a supplement in many areas that don't get enough sunlight to maintain battery banks to meet demand. There are also those extended periods where there's simply not enough sunlight to maintain a charge, in just about any location. You have to be switchable to a grid or at least have alternative energy available. That's why solutions like Solar and Wind can work together but they both want the same real estate.

[DMC]

Payment plan is exactly what I am looking at. "we will build it and finance it, you simply make payments"

They balance the size of the system versus your utility bills. I may overbuild a bit, as wife and I are thinking of spending money on an electric vehicle for her commute.
You probably agree it feels like a risk since your neighbors probably aren't doing it, and what happens when that company says "see ya" and fails to replace damaged or faulty components yet you are stuck with a bill that was sold to a collector?

Probably not a real issue, but for the average working family, those are decisions that can produce both excitement and anxiety. Once you get over the feeling of having outsmarted the big electric company system, you are now faced with the prospect of having a solar home. If you ever have to move, you have to leave it. Does the solar payment stay with the home?

[DPG21920]

You probably agree it feels like a risk since your neighbors probably aren't doing it, and what happens when that company says "see ya" and fails to replace damaged or faulty components yet you are stuck with a bill that was sold to a collector?

Probably not a real issue, but for the average working family, those are decisions that can produce both excitement and anxiety. Once you get over the feeling of having outsmarted the big electric company system, you are now faced with the prospect of having a solar home. If you ever have to move, you have to leave it. Does the solar payment stay with the home?

Still lots of questions. That is why I like the Tesla shingle model. Just like today if you buy a new comp shingle roof. You are paying the bill whether you do it in cash or finance it. Selling your home does not change that you had the work done.

By doing it that way it's no different than today's model - it's just making your home more attractive when you sell etc.

[TeyshaBlue]

I have a large house with a South facing roof so I had that working for me. They wanted to carry the paper @3% for 20 years. The battery backup would set me back another 5 grand. I asked to pay up front for the system but they wouldn't budge on the pricing. That's when I told them to take a walk and get back with me if they change their minds. And bouton's had the company name right....SolarCity.

[TeyshaBlue]

I never got to the point where I looked at the impact to my homeowner's insurance premium.

[DMC]

I have a large house with a South facing roof so I had that working for me. They wanted to carry the paper @3% for 20 years. The battery backup would set me back another 5 grand. I asked to pay up front for the system but they wouldn't budge on the pricing. That's when I told them to take a walk and get back with me if they change their minds. And bouton's had the company name right....SolarCity.

Did they keep your REC?

[TeyshaBlue]

REC?

[Thread]

I have a large house with a South facing roof so I had that working for me. They wanted to carry the paper @3% for 20 years. The battery backup would set me back another 5 grand. I asked to pay up front for the system but they wouldn't budge on the pricing. That's when I told them to take a walk and get back with me if they change their minds. And bouton's had the company name right....SolarCity.

Good information, TB. I was wondering how that worked.

[TeyshaBlue]

They also snag your tax credit which was a problem for me. Kept trying to explain that I could use some of it but somehow I had to pay them for it. It was surreal.

[boutons_deux]

rural electric coop. like BEC :)

[TeyshaBlue]

DEC...Drunk Electric Co-op.

[Thread]

They also snag your tax credit which was a problem for me. Kept trying to explain that I could use some of it but somehow I had to pay them for it. It was surreal.

That's like [money from home]. No one wants to part with it.

[RandomGuy]

Share the price here if you don't mind.

Some farmers have given up land for solar as well, to the tune of about 25K per year per 50 acres. That's great, but when you have mineral rights you're sitting on money you can just cash in basically. Solar requires that the company who made the contract with you actually remain economically viable, and outside of a few key players, solar companies rely largely on financial assistance from "we must move to solar" people. Solar will have to be profitable. Of course they said the same for recycling and now most cities have a recycling program in effect in residential and commercial areas. Sometimes profit comes from savings in other areas.

Like I said, I am all for solar, but the sun doesn't shine all day every day. It would need to be a supplement in many areas that don't get enough sunlight to maintain battery banks to meet demand. There are also those extended periods where there's simply not enough sunlight to maintain a charge, in just about any location. You have to be switchable to a grid or at least have alternative energy available. That's why solutions like Solar and Wind can work together but they both want the same real estate.

Price was $38,000 for an installation that would provide enough power for the house. Financing terms were for 8 years at 7% apr.

I would likely augment that with a tesla power wall or two.

Haven't pulled the trigger on that, since we have other short term financial goals that come first.

[DMC]

Price was $38,000 for an installation that would provide enough power for the house. Financing terms were for 8 years at 7% apr.

I would likely augment that with a tesla power wall or two.

Haven't pulled the trigger on that, since we have other short term financial goals that come first.
That last one is a doozie. It gets most of us. If we were talking about basic electricity from a utility standpoint, nothing else comes first. Since it's an alternative source of an existing feed, we can just consider it an investment for financial reasons, long term. Until that choice is removed or made less of a venture, we'll continue to balk at it. Not saying you will balk at it, but you need more of a reason to pull the trigger than "it's better for the Earth".

[pgardn]

3 new roofs due to hail damage.

Help me out here...

[boutons_deux]

Price was $38,000

How many Kw?

[TeyshaBlue]

Price was $38,000 for an installation that would provide enough power for the house. Financing terms were for 8 years at 7% apr.

I would likely augment that with a tesla power wall or two.

Haven't pulled the trigger on that, since we have other short term financial goals that come first.

38 grand at 7% for 8 years? That's ridiculous.

[TeyshaBlue]

I was being offered 50 grand for 20 years at 3 points.

[DarrinS]

Hard to justify the cost, since my CPS bill is lower than both my cable and cell phone bills.

[TeyshaBlue]

I would likely augment that with a tesla power wall or two.

Haven't pulled the trigger on that, since we have other short term financial goals that come first.

BTW, did you ever determine if there was any impact to homeowner's insurance?

[DMC]

3 new roofs due to hail damage.

Help me out here...
So you're saying solar panels would have been better or worse?

Explain

[DMC]

BTW, did you ever determine if there was any impact to homeowner's insurance?

or property value in the form of tax assessment


What does a 20 year old solar panel system perform/look like? Because if you're saving 250 a month in electricity (which is about average for a 2500sqft home if you average, using gas heat instead of electric) in Texas, it would take you about 14 years to begin to see a return. That's assuming a 40K system with zero dollars for repair over that 14 year period. So you get 7 years of above water use and how is the system now? Does it need to be replaced and if so, will you even be able to get compatible panels and parts in 20 years or will you need a completely new install? Or will you ever need to do anything to it?

[Xevious]

or property value in the form of tax assessment


What does a 20 year old solar panel system perform/look like? Because if you're saving 250 a month in electricity (which is about average for a 2500sqft home if you average, using gas heat instead of electric) in Texas, it would take you about 14 years to begin to see a return. That's assuming a 40K system with zero dollars for repair over that 14 year period. So you get 7 years of above water use and how is the system now? Does it need to be replaced and if so, will you even be able to get compatible panels and parts in 20 years or will you need a completely new install? Or will you ever need to do anything to it?

That's the kicker for me - how long it will take to see a return on investment. And I'd have to do a lot of research to see how much maintenance that shit requires.

[boutons_deux]

JO destroys coal Execs and coal companies

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aw6RsUhw1Q8

[Thread]

That's the kicker for me - how long it will take to see a return on investment. And I'd have to do a lot of research to see how much maintenance that shit requires.

X, just sign the fuckin' papers.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

38 grand at 7% for 8 years? That's ridiculous.

I need to figure out how to get in on that action.

[RandomGuy]

You probably agree it feels like a risk since your neighbors probably aren't doing it, and what happens when that company says "see ya" and fails to replace damaged or faulty components yet you are stuck with a bill that was sold to a collector?

Probably not a real issue, but for the average working family, those are decisions that can produce both excitement and anxiety. Once you get over the feeling of having outsmarted the big electric company system, you are now faced with the prospect of having a solar home. If you ever have to move, you have to leave it. Does the solar payment stay with the home?

The company installs the system, I own it, so responsibility for maintenance is mine. Haven't seen warranty, but for that much money I may spend a bit extra for some insurance in that regard, if it isn't up to snuff.

If I were to sell the house I would price the unit into the value of the house, and use the funds from closing to pay out the note. The new owner would then have the advantage of a long term loan.

[RandomGuy]

BTW, did you ever determine if there was any impact to homeowner's insurance?

Oddly enough, I happen to have a current copy of my policy that I was going to read on my annual review. I am an insurance expert, so that helps immensely. :king

As an installation, it becomes part of the policy. Oddly enough the language in the policy excludes damage from "electrical" other than lightning strikes, and adding in what amounts to a major electrical upgrade would mean I have some uncovered exposure.

In my area though, adding tens of thousands of dollars of value to the house bumps up against the current coverage limit, especially since the house is appreciating rapidly. Current limit was set upon build out, and will soon need to be increased, IMO.

I view my current coverage would probably need to be modestly upgraded for electrical problems. I will need to increase coverage maximum anyway, so maybe shopping around would be helpful. I am thinking that I may try to get the electrical coverage, even if I don't get the solar.

I would note, it pays to read policy forms VERY carefully, especially homeowners, since the asset involved is so large.

[RandomGuy]

I was being offered 50 grand for 20 years at 3 points.

Seems lowball to me. My system likely doesn't involve a lien, so that may be the reason.

Yours probably comes with a lien for securing it, I would guess, that is the only way you get such low rates, in my experience.

[TeyshaBlue]

There was no lien involved. They just pitched that 3% at me. But there is a couple of caveats in their system which translates to cash
1. You buy power thru their company. If you make more than you use, you get a credit towards future billing...credits that will likely never be realized.
2. They get your tax credit... Which can be pretty chunky.

I also didn't like that they had no flexibility in their plans..no avenue for a cash purchase. No avenue for an early payoff. That alone put me of the deal.

[boutons_deux]

Here’s how Trump could crush cheap solar.

Investors in the bankrupt solar-panel company Suniva have invoked an obscure law that may wind up

letting President Trump unilaterally jack up the price of solar panels.Bloomberg Businessweek has the details (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-15/this-case-could-upend-america-s-29-billion-solar-industry?cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_content=business&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social).

Basically, this

may let Trump slap a tariff on photovoltaic imports.

There’s a huge problem with this:

Those cheap Chinese imports have been crucial in driving down the cost of solar energy and in spreading solar panels.

A Trump tariff could double the price of imported panels, according to the Bloomberg story, “potentially crippling demand for solar power.”

In other words, Trump may try to save some American solar manufacturers by wreaking havoc with the American solar market.

http://grist.org/briefly/heres-how-trump-could-crush-cheap-solar/


35% tariff on Chinese solar panels would kill distributed solar and 100Ks jobs.

Go for it, Donny.

#MASA Make America Shitty Again.