Hurricane Irma

[Big Empty]

Will be a hurricane in a few days and is in the Atlantic ocean with a destination unknown. If this were to come to Texas life in the coastal bend could change forever.

[SpursforSix]

It's got a good curved banding structure and is organizing nicely, but I'd like to see more of a cold CDO before I started thinking hurricane. T#s are pretty low still.

[SpursforSix]

Plenty of high octane SST fuel along the path of Irma.


Waters across the main development region of the Atlantic have warmed considerably since mid-August. Now trail only 2010 and 2005.

[InRareForm]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2017/08/31/hurricane-irma-forms-atlantic-forecast-reach-extremely-dangerous-major-hurricane-strength/620069001/

[UNT Eagles 2016]

It's supposed to bend west-southwest into the Caribbean. Could be a potential low rider major (Yucatan/Mexico storm) like, say, Emily in 2005 or Dean in 2007.

[UNT Eagles 2016]

ECMWF track takes it hard WSW into the central Caribbean with the chance to strike back to the northwest then, but GFS takes it out to sea... obviously rooting for the ECMWF solution.

[SpursforSix]

Irma's eye isn't forecast to reach 60W until Wedneday morning. A prolific ACE producer. This will be a marathon to track. Though changes in the 5 day forecast are likely, communities in the Antilles should have no surprises with such a long lead-up to potential impact. The WSW 500mb steering flow grabs attention. Certainly does not hurt to sure up a plan and have one it in place just in case. Start minor preparations. It's been a number of years since a major hurricane impacted the Leewards.

[Darth_Pelican]

East Coast



https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_11

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/11L_tracks_latest.png

[UNT Eagles 2016]

Pretty much certain to be another US major hit.

[Pelicans78]

Category 5, 175 mph winds.

[benefactor]

Crazy...and it looks like Haiti/Dominican Republic is going to get smacked around again.:tu

[Pelicans78]

Up to 180 mph. Going straight west.

[SpursforSix]

Moving very slowly, almost stalled.
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/applications/core/interface/imageproxy/imageproxy.php?img=https://www.stormvistawxmodels.com/i/user-images/59aeca3781b13.png&key=e828bd40222d569807a058f829c294c86ddcddec4bce69 7be32a8f58f21465d2

[UNT Eagles 2016]

Irma is the strongest hurricane in our basin since Hurricane Wilma of 2005. Also stronger than both Katrina and Rita at peak intensity.

[UNT Eagles 2016]

Moving very slowly, almost stalled.
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/applications/core/interface/imageproxy/imageproxy.php?img=https://www.stormvistawxmodels.com/i/user-images/59aeca3781b13.png&key=e828bd40222d569807a058f829c294c86ddcddec4bce69 7be32a8f58f21465d2

GFS has a direct hit on Miami going NNW. ECMFW (Euro) model has a hit on the SW coast of FL and going north from there. Others take her near Tampa.

[baseline bum]

Man congress is going to have a fucked month. Increase the debt ceiling or crash the economy if the US defaults. Come up with a budget to stave off a government shutdown. Fund aid for the worst disaster to hit the nation since Katrina. Then fund aid for a Cat 5 hurricane about to rape Puerto Rico and probably Florida too.

[Pavlov]

Man congress is going to have a fucked month. Increase the debt ceiling or crash the economy if the US defaults. Come up with a budget to stave off a government shutdown. Fund aid for the worst disaster to hit the nation since Katrina. Then fund aid for a Cat 5 hurricane about to rape Puerto Rico and probably Florida too.No, no, no. Trump said it's build the wall and give him a tax cut and that's what is going to happen.

[tlongII]

Obama wouldn't let these disasters happen!

[Buddy Mignon]

Crazy...and it looks like Haiti/Dominican Republic is going to get smacked around again.:tu

Not as bad as Trump has been smacking you wetbacks around.

[spurraider21]

Not as bad as Trump has been smacking you wetbacks around.
Lol Ahmed

[Darth_Pelican]

Jeff Piotrowski is salivating. Is he crazy enough to do his livestream from the heart of the storm if it touches down as a Category 5?

[baseline bum]

Jeff Piotrowski is salivating. Is he crazy enough to do his livestream from the heart of the storm if it touches down as a Category 5?

Well he went into the eye of Andrew supposedly, so I imagine he'll do the same for Irma.

[Cry Havoc]

Well he went into the eye of Andrew supposedly, so I imagine he'll do the same for Irma.

Irma is much stronger than Andrew.

[Cry Havoc]

High rates of rain and lightning in the eyewall now.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-13-48-1

That is a perfect eye. I expect the NHC to upgrade Irma to at least 195mph winds with a pressure around ~905 with the next invest. I believe Irma will become the strongest hurricane ever in the Atlantic and could continue to strengthen afterward.

SSTs support 200mph sustained winds and there is absolutely no shear in the atmosphere to speak of. These are virtually the most ideal conditions possible for a Hurricane to achieve peak strength. The only limit now is how warm the water is.

[Mark Celibate]

High rates of rain and lightning in the eyewall now.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-13-48-1

That is a perfect eye. I expect the NHC to upgrade Irma to at least 195mph winds with a pressure around ~905 with the next invest. I believe Irma will become the strongest hurricane ever in the Atlantic and could continue to strengthen afterward.

SSTs support 200mph sustained winds and there is absolutely no shear in the atmosphere to speak of. These are virtually the most ideal conditions possible for a Hurricane to achieve peak strength. The only limit now is how warm the water is.

:wow

that's basically a Category 7 if they were to keep incrementing the scale

[UNT Eagles 2016]

High rates of rain and lightning in the eyewall now.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-13-48-1

That is a perfect eye. I expect the NHC to upgrade Irma to at least 195mph winds with a pressure around ~905 with the next invest. I believe Irma will become the strongest hurricane ever in the Atlantic and could continue to strengthen afterward.

SSTs support 200mph sustained winds and there is absolutely no shear in the atmosphere to speak of. These are virtually the most ideal conditions possible for a Hurricane to achieve peak strength. The only limit now is how warm the water is.

Looks like Irma peaked at 185 for now, but after the next eyewall replacement cycle she will temporarily weaken ~15-20 mph but grow double or greater in area and wind field and could deepen closer to 900 mb/200 mph as a much larger-sized hurricane.

Major hurricane force winds could extend >150 miles from the center after the next EWRC, meaning that any Florida hit would cause major winds and surge for the entire southern Florida Peninsula -- Key West, Tampa, Miami all the way up through Daytona. Orlando isn't on the coast but it would get >115 mph sustained winds and >135mph gusts as well. Within 25-30 miles of the center, you'd get Cat 5 winds -- sustained, not gusts. That's enough to flatten a brick or cement house, knock down high rise resorts and office buildings, and ravage foundations. If this part of the hurricane, say, hits Miami square on -- Katrina will be an afterthought in US history.

[spurraider21]

Well, Katrina was exacerbated by N.O.'s elevation, shape, levees. It wasn't just the sheer hurricane power we remember

[SpursforSix]

Nice little jog north by 18z GFS vs. 12z through 54 hours. Could be enough to matter.

[SpursforSix]

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2017_09/gifsBy12hr_07.gif.818d64f0339a5f2df3de717074f1f0a6 .gif

[UNT Eagles 2016]

Yeah spurraider21. The worst part of Category 3 Katrina actually missed NOLA to the east. NOLA was spared of the eyewall and the right front outer part of the hurricane. But the levees were already failing due to age, mediocre build to begin with, and a rain soaker in strong Tropical Storm Cindy earlier in that hurricane season. Katrina was a large storm that dumped a lot of rain and pushed Lake Pontchartrain over the edge and dumped it into the "bowl" parts of NOLA. A category 1 or even TS could have done the same.

But now it would take a more direct hit and possibly a stronger hurricane because these new levees were built very well. They already survived two somewhat formidable minor hurricane hits in Gustav (2008) and Isaac (2012). Irma at peak intensity hitting NOLA directly would likely cause another Katrina or worse, fortunately it's not forecast to go that far west.

[Cry Havoc]

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2017_09/gifsBy12hr_07.gif.818d64f0339a5f2df3de717074f1f0a6 .gif

The donut hole of death. Unreal how symmetrical it is.

Pressure down to <920 per recon.

[UNT Eagles 2016]

18z GFS run just took Irma out to sea instead of hitting Florida.

[SnakeBoy]

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2017_09/gifsBy12hr_07.gif.818d64f0339a5f2df3de717074f1f0a6 .gif

She's an evil looking bitch

[UNT Eagles 2016]

She's an evil looking bitch

Moving WNW now, definitely a NW component. Could still recurve and miss the US entirely

[Mark Celibate]

Well, Katrina was exacerbated by N.O.'s elevation, shape, levees. It wasn't just the sheer hurricane power we remember

yep, after first hand experience with Harvey it's clear that N.O.'s shoddy infrastructure all the way around is what caused it to be a catastrophe. If Houston's two dams had broken...holy shit.

[Cry Havoc]

Recon found 199mph winds just 80ft off the surface. Unreal. Still a 180mph storm but with a central pressure of 917.

[UNT Eagles 2016]

Recon found 199mph winds just 80ft off the surface. Unreal. Still a 180mph storm but with a central pressure of 917.

so it weakened? I wonder if it'll only be a weak cat 5 or strong cat 4 at landfall

[baseline bum]

Irma is much stronger than Andrew.

Andrew was at 175 mph when it hit Florida. I'd be really surprised to see Irma be as strong when it makes US mainland landfall after running through Puerto Rico, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic.

[Cry Havoc]

so it weakened? I wonder if it'll only be a weak cat 5 or strong cat 4 at landfall

Depends on the land interaction. As of now waters right off the coast are warm enough to support a 7.5 or even 8.0 on the Dvorak. It's bathwater all the way up to Florida for Irma and with minimal shear it's the worst case scenario as far as how strong Irma will be at landfall.

[Cry Havoc]

so it weakened? I wonder if it'll only be a weak cat 5 or strong cat 4 at landfall

Also they kept the intensity at 185mph per the 2000 update.

[InRareForm]

30 mile eye is crazy

[Silver&Black]

Nice knowing you Puerto Rico. You shall be missed.

[benefactor]

https://s.w-x.co/wu/mpi-crop-final-v2.png

:wow

[UNT Eagles 2016]

https://s.w-x.co/wu/mpi-crop-final-v2.png

:wow

210 mph / 890 mb is just fine for a landfall in Miami. Miami can use an ass kicking, also Jay Cutler will be out of a job again.

[UNT Eagles 2016]

Irmageddon truly taking her talents to Sowf Beach

[Cry Havoc]

905229677207457798

Fucking unreal. That looks like an 8.0 with potentially a ring of CDG making landfall.

[UNT Eagles 2016]

905229677207457798

Fucking unreal. That looks like an 8.0 with potentially a ring of CDG making landfall.

150 mile radius (from the eyewall) wide cat 3+ force hurricane winds, 350 miles wide radius of hurricane winds. And those are sustained winds, not gusts. That's before we even discuss rain or storm surge.

[UNT Eagles 2016]

HWRF and ECMWF solutions slam into Florida as a cat 5, GFS 18z still makes Irma a fish storm at the last minute. Wait & see

[Cry Havoc]

HWRF and ECMWF solutions slam into Florida as a cat 5, GFS 18z still makes Irma a fish storm at the last minute. Wait & see

As usual, follow the Euro and all will be revealed. It's by far the best model we have on the planet right now.

[Cry Havoc]

IjGdi7z_B4U

[baseline bum]

IjGdi7z_B4U

What's an 8.0 and CDG?

[UNT Eagles 2016]

As usual, follow the Euro and all will be revealed. It's by far the best model we have on the planet right now.
The Euro = the ECMWF.

[UNT Eagles 2016]

What's an 8.0 and CDG?

8.0 on the Dvorak scale = a moderate Cat 5 hurricane, roughly 165-175 mph winds. Dvorak scale, also known as McTavish or "T" numbers, is NOAA's technique for tracking hurricane intensity.

Don't know what CDG is.

[Cry Havoc]

8.0 on the Dvorak scale = a moderate Cat 5 hurricane, roughly 165-175 mph winds. Dvorak scale, also known as McTavish or "T" numbers, is NOAA's technique for tracking hurricane intensity.

Don't know what CDG is.

8.0 is actually top of the Dvorak. Only two storms have ever gone over an 8. Haiyan and Patricia.

CDG is the temperature of the cloud tops around the eye. In Dvorak classification it stands for "cold dark grey", which is the coldest that our charts allow for, usually below negative 85 degrees Fahrenheit. Haiyans tops may have been around -130. When you see a ring of CDG clouds around the eye of a hurricane it means it's as strong as we can possibly measure with present instrumentation. Extremely rare for a WPAC storm to get there, let alone an Atlantic hurricane. I don't believe even Wilma had that presentation.

[Cry Havoc]

The Euro = the ECMWF.

Yuuup. Kicks our butts and sadly we won't be getting more funds for our models anytime soon.

[UNT Eagles 2016]

8.0 is actually top of the Dvorak. Only two storms have ever gone over an 8. Haiyan and Patricia.

CDG is the temperature of the cloud tops around the eye. In Dvorak classification it stands for "cold dark grey", which is the coldest that our charts allow for, usually below negative 85 degrees Fahrenheit. Haiyans tops may have been around -130. When you see a ring of CDG clouds around the eye of a hurricane it means it's as strong as we can possibly measure with present instrumentation. Extremely rare for a WPAC storm to get there, let alone an Atlantic hurricane. I don't believe even Wilma had that presentation.
I've seen quite a few in the WPAC get greys (-85C, not Fahrenheit I'm pretty sure) even weaker/less organized storms with heaps of disorganized convection, such as Man-Yi in 2007, simply because the heat ocean content over there is ridiculous compared to the Atlantic or EPAC.

[Cry Havoc]

I've seen quite a few in the WPAC get greys (-85C, not Fahrenheit I'm pretty sure) even weaker/less organized storms with heaps of disorganized convection, such as Man-Yi in 2007, simply because the heat ocean content over there is ridiculous compared to the Atlantic or EPAC.

A ring of CDG is exceptionally rare for any storm. They can have patches, but a spinning core of CDG had never been observed prior to Haiyan. You might have seen CMG "cold medium gray".

And yeah, don't know why I wrote Farenheit. As if any met obs are recorded in F. :lol

[Cry Havoc]

177mph winds pressure down to 914mb according to last hurricane hunter pass.

[UNT Eagles 2016]

ECMWF (Euro) now misses Florida to the east as well. Still could be a fish storm, models trending that way

[UNT Eagles 2016]

Explaining the models.....

- "OFCL" = the official NHC forecast track, not a model

Tier 1:

- European global model (ECMWF) and associated hurricane model (HWRF)
- American global model (GFS) and associated hurricane model (HMON, formerly known as the GFDL)

Tier 2:

- British global model (UKMET) which does not have an associated hurricane model

Tier 3:

- Canadian global model (CMC) and associated hurricane model (GEM)
- U.S. Navy global model (NOGAPS) and associated hurricane model (NAVGEM)
- Advection models (BAM and TAB suite; S = shallow, M = medium, D = deep... "deep" would definitely apply to a major hurricane like Irma)
- LBAR and other "minor" models

Reference models (do not use to determine a track of each individual storm)

- CLIP & CLP5 models..... strictly based on climatology; the average track the storm would historically take given its position, intensity, speed, and month of year

- XTRP model..... ("extrapolation model") ...strictly where the storm were to go if it continued its current exact direction and forward speed

- SHIPS model..... strictly predicts intensity of a storm, with land interaction not a factor

- DSHIP (Decay Ship) model..... strictly predicts intensity of a storm, with land interaction a factor

[baseline bum]

8.0 on the Dvorak scale = a moderate Cat 5 hurricane, roughly 165-175 mph winds. Dvorak scale, also known as McTavish or "T" numbers, is NOAA's technique for tracking hurricane intensity.

Don't know what CDG is.



8.0 is actually top of the Dvorak. Only two storms have ever gone over an 8. Haiyan and Patricia.

CDG is the temperature of the cloud tops around the eye. In Dvorak classification it stands for "cold dark grey", which is the coldest that our charts allow for, usually below negative 85 degrees Fahrenheit. Haiyans tops may have been around -130. When you see a ring of CDG clouds around the eye of a hurricane it means it's as strong as we can possibly measure with present instrumentation. Extremely rare for a WPAC storm to get there, let alone an Atlantic hurricane. I don't believe even Wilma had that presentation.

Thanks for clearing that shit up. :tu

[pgardn]

She's an evil looking bitch

Time for pirate talk and meteorology.

Thermodynamics.

She be a harsh winsome mistress.

R

[benefactor]

Irma is about to eat St. Thomas.

[Brazil]

:lol I'm quite impressed, did not know ST had so many dudes understanding storm shit tbh.. :tu

this site is crazy.. what I read here give more info than the weather sites... hats off ST

[SnakeBoy]

Damn, looks more like a tornado coming in


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=798HpjwrFqY

[SpursforSix]

Recon found 199mph winds just 80ft off the surface. Unreal. Still a 180mph storm but with a central pressure of 917.


so it weakened? I wonder if it'll only be a weak cat 5 or strong cat 4 at landfall

I appreciate that you guys are interested in the weather but unless you can show me some credentials, I'll ask that you refrain from posting as you don't truly understand the complexities of hurricane forecasting.
Lives are at stake.

Thank you.

[Darth_Pelican]

Damn, looks more like a tornado coming in


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=798HpjwrFqY

I like how people decide to take a ride in their cars when a cat 5 hurricane is in progress.

[RD2191]

Damn, looks more like a tornado coming in


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=798HpjwrFqY

Ho lee fuck.

[Mark Celibate]

Damn, looks more like a tornado coming in


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=798HpjwrFqY

This video is fake, the original has been up over a year tbh

[SnakeBoy]

This video is fake, the original has been up over a year tbh

Well shit. Anyhoo here it is hitting Florida already :lol


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v4HRmYsoAfA

[Mark Celibate]

Well shit. Anyhoo here it is hitting Florida already :lol


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v4HRmYsoAfA

rofl yeah I'm not sure what the video originally was (maybe a tornado) but I saw the same one last year for Hurricane Matthew

[Mark Celibate]

wew lad ElTZ16BRKpo

[RD2191]

Well shit. Anyhoo here it is hitting Florida already :lol


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v4HRmYsoAfA

:lmao I've been fooled

[SpursforSix]

:lmao I've been fooled

This is EXACTLY why I've asked that people refrain from posting unless they have the credentials to comment intelligently on Hurricane Irma.

[Darth_Pelican]

mYLoKPaBUD4

[Darth_Pelican]

Holy Shit

dA5qYrboTUE

[RD2191]

This is EXACTLY why I've asked that people refrain from posting unless they have the credentials to comment intelligently on Hurricane Irma.

Bend over, I'll show you my credentials.

[baseline bum]

Irma already over Puerto Rico now

https://image.ibb.co/jJVXBv/irma.png

[RD2191]

Irma already over Puerto Rico now

https://image.ibb.co/jJVXBv/irma.png

Damn, who hacked my phone?

[InRareForm]

wtf

[SpursforSix]

Irma already over Puerto Rico now

https://image.ibb.co/jJVXBv/irma.png

Cocknado

[Cry Havoc]

I appreciate that you guys are interested in the weather but unless you can show me some credentials, I'll ask that you refrain from posting as you don't truly understand the complexities of hurricane forecasting.
Lives are at stake.

Thank you.

Uh, are you joking? Where are your credentials?

[Cry Havoc]

https://image.ibb.co/guoBoa/bd0.gif

CMG now clearly showing around the eye. Despite the ragged appearence due to Southerly shear, her cloud tops have actually cooled. She's holding strength better than anticipated.

[Cry Havoc]

Also 24 hours+ now at cat 5 status. Ultra-rarefied air, if you pardon the pun.

[SpursforSix]

Uh, are you joking? Where are your credentials?

http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=262560&highlight=expert

[Cry Havoc]

Dvorak at T#7.4 out of 8.0. I believe this is the highest it's been in the life cycle of Irma.

The GFS might have been right for once, this could still be a sub 900mb storm.

[Cry Havoc]

http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=262560&highlight=expert

Well shit, I can't compete with that.

[SpursforSix]

With St. Thomas getting a very prolonged experience in the southern eyewall, even being the weaker side, the length of time is devestating anything on those ridges. Fortunately, the town of Charlotte Amalie may be protected somewhat from getting the worst sustained winds in the southern eyewall as it is tucked away on the south harbour. It will not be in the eastern eyewall which is critical for missing the Cat 4 and 5 windspeeds and the highest surge. On-shore wind will still be at hurricane force however as Irma moves WNW.

Starting to see inner eye mesovortices sculpt the eyewall into the square/pentagon that Harvey had upon landfall.
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2017_09/IMG_0030.thumb.PNG.301cecd97d55b161ab6e88e26e20ce7 9.PNG (https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2017_09/IMG_0030.PNG.94229e6a69a8f5015bafb8fe74d1d548.PNG)

[Cry Havoc]

Most recent Euro tracks her slightly west. Florida still likely candidate for a cat 5 direct impact.

[wontstartdumbthreads]

Praying for something, anything, any kind of interference to make that nasty girl calm down a bit before she slams us here (south florida) AND/OR further up the coast!! First time I heard the name Irma I felt a bit anxious. I was member #660 when easternuswx was around, and I recognize many of you folks from that time. I lived in Stuart when I joined the old forum and experienced Francis & Jean. I appreciated you all then and I obviously still do. A BIGGG thanks to all for your posts and for sharing useful and intelligent information... KNOWLEDGE IS POWER!!

[SpursforSix]

The shear that was inhibiting the western side of the outflow has seemingly relaxed, at least based on the IR presentation.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/applications/core/interface/imageproxy/imageproxy.php?img=http://weather.cod.edu/data/goes16/meso1/13/meso1_13_20170906185924.jpg&key=ba81ab6b53a80dd302ea022c23655bbb1fb3c9a07ea354 9b059d43b220e645b5 (https://www.americanwx.com/bb/applications/core/interface/imageproxy/imageproxy.php?img=http://weather.cod.edu/data/goes16/meso1/13/meso1_13_20170906185924.jpg&key=ba81ab6b53a80dd302ea022c23655bbb1fb3c9a07ea354 9b059d43b220e645b5)

[Cry Havoc]

Praying for something, anything, any kind of interference to make that nasty girl calm down a bit before she slams us here (south florida) AND/OR further up the coast!! First time I heard the name Irma I felt a bit anxious. I was member #660 when easternuswx was around, and I recognize many of you folks from that time. I lived in Stuart when I joined the old forum and experienced Francis & Jean. I appreciated you all then and I obviously still do. A BIGGG thanks to all for your posts and for sharing useful and intelligent information... KNOWLEDGE IS POWER!!

If I was living where you do, I would be evacuating today. Not tomorrow or Friday.

[Cry Havoc]

The shear that was inhibiting the western side of the outflow has seemingly relaxed, at least based on the IR presentation.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/applications/core/interface/imageproxy/imageproxy.php?img=http://weather.cod.edu/data/goes16/meso1/13/meso1_13_20170906185924.jpg&key=ba81ab6b53a80dd302ea022c23655bbb1fb3c9a07ea354 9b059d43b220e645b5 (https://www.americanwx.com/bb/applications/core/interface/imageproxy/imageproxy.php?img=http://weather.cod.edu/data/goes16/meso1/13/meso1_13_20170906185924.jpg&key=ba81ab6b53a80dd302ea022c23655bbb1fb3c9a07ea354 9b059d43b220e645b5)

Makes sense given how her pressure dropped back down to 917.

[Mark Celibate]

Praying for something, anything, any kind of interference to make that nasty girl calm down a bit before she slams us here (south florida) AND/OR further up the coast!! First time I heard the name Irma I felt a bit anxious. I was member #660 when easternuswx was around, and I recognize many of you folks from that time. I lived in Stuart when I joined the old forum and experienced Francis & Jean. I appreciated you all then and I obviously still do. A BIGGG thanks to all for your posts and for sharing useful and intelligent information... KNOWLEDGE IS POWER!!


>useful and intelligent information
>spurstalk.com

https://i.imgflip.com/1qtxes.jpg

[Mark Celibate]

If I was living where you do, I would be evacuating today. Not tomorrow or Friday.

I've never been in a mandatory evacuation situation with a Cat4/5 hurricane staring me down, but I wonder how much corporate America has to do with this shit. I understand not everybody can evacuate, but let's say the storm is still 5 days away and you don't know for sure if you're getting a direct hit or not. A tricky situation to be in. I'm sure there are plenty of Jew overlord bosses who intimidate you through peer pressure to stay "C'mon goy! It's not gonna be that bad, nobody else has evacuated yet." Fuck them, tbh. By the time there's a mandatory evacuation issued, it's too late and it becomes a clusterfuck on the roads

IMO, only the ultimate hardasses should stick around for Category 4 or 5's. I'm not sure if the above scenario has something to do with it or if Floridians are tougher than we are because it seems like most are just gonna ride it out. Even Jeff said he's not messing with this one

[baseline bum]

If I was living where you do, I would be evacuating today. Not tomorrow or Friday.

Yeah man, fuck praying. Get in the god damn car and find a motel or bring your tent and find a cheap campground another state or two over.

[spurraider21]

I've never been in a mandatory evacuation situation with a Cat4/5 hurricane staring me down, but I wonder how much corporate America has to do with this shit. I understand not everybody can evacuate, but let's say the storm is still 5 days away and you don't know for sure if you're getting a direct hit or not. A tricky situation to be in. I'm sure there are plenty of Jew overlord bosses who intimidate you through peer pressure to stay "C'mon goy! It's not gonna be that bad, nobody else has evacuated yet." Fuck them, tbh. By the time there's a mandatory evacuation issued, it's too late and it becomes a clusterfuck on the roads

IMO, only the ultimate hardasses should stick around for Category 4 or 5's. I'm not sure if the above scenario has something to do with it or if Floridians are tougher than we are because it seems like most are just gonna ride it out. Even Jeff said he's not messing with this one
Your jewanoia never loses its entertainment value tbh.

Has you agreeing with Limbaugh about hurricane warnings being a scam :lol

[UNT Eagles 2016]

Yeah man, fuck praying. Get in the god damn car and find a motel or bring your tent and find a cheap campground another state or two over.

Not this time of year. Too hot and sticky outside at night, especially in the heart of Dixie. Better off sleeping in the car where at least you won't be waking up to 50 mosquito and ant bites per person.

[florige]

I've never been in a mandatory evacuation situation with a Cat4/5 hurricane staring me down, but I wonder how much corporate America has to do with this shit. I understand not everybody can evacuate, but let's say the storm is still 5 days away and you don't know for sure if you're getting a direct hit or not. A tricky situation to be in. I'm sure there are plenty of Jew overlord bosses who intimidate you through peer pressure to stay "C'mon goy! It's not gonna be that bad, nobody else has evacuated yet." Fuck them, tbh. By the time there's a mandatory evacuation issued, it's too late and it becomes a clusterfuck on the roads

IMO, only the ultimate hardasses should stick around for Category 4 or 5's. I'm not sure if the above scenario has something to do with it or if Floridians are tougher than we are because it seems like most are just gonna ride it out. Even Jeff said he's not messing with this one



That right there would be enough for me to get the heck outta dodge.

[florige]

Yeah man, fuck praying. Get in the god damn car and find a motel or bring your tent and find a cheap campground another state or two over.


My friend lives in Tampa and she is sorta playing it like its no big deal. She thinks that because she lives on the 3rd floor of her apt building she should be ok. smh

[SpursforSix]

That right there would be enough for me to get the heck outta dodge.

I bet there are a ton of idiots who saw Jeff get all the airplay on Harvey and will all get killed trying to replicate the same thing with Irma.

[Cry Havoc]

My friend lives in Tampa and she is sorta playing it like its no big deal. She thinks that because she lives on the 3rd floor of her apt building she should be ok. smh

Say goodbye to her. I mean it. Tell her to write her social security number on her arm and stomach so they can identify her body.

[Cry Havoc]

I bet there are a ton of idiots who saw Jeff get all the airplay on Harvey and will all get killed trying to replicate the same thing with Irma.

Honestly that pissed me off with Jeff. It was incredible footage, but he's been chasing long enough to know how that's going to cause people to copycat him.

I met him long ago and he was always a bit of a thrill seeker but he really seems to have gone overboard with it lately. I thought Joplin would have finally cured him if it...doesn't seem to be the case. It's frustrating when pros do what they tell the public not to. He was VERY close to being the first stormchaser death ever caught on camera.

Edit: point of clarification. I used to chase and was a storm spotter for the local weather service, but there's a huge difference between smart chasing and being reckless. Jeff has fallen into the latter category. Glad to see he's staying away this time.

[Pavlov]

Say goodbye to her. I mean it. Tell her to write her social security number on her arm and stomach so they can identify her body.Even in death I would use my DL number instead. Looters ain't gonna vote Democrat for me.

[baseline bum]

My friend lives in Tampa and she is sorta playing it like its no big deal. She thinks that because she lives on the 3rd floor of her apt building she should be ok. smh

Since she's going to die anyways can you post her nudes?

[baseline bum]

Honestly that pissed me off with Jeff. It was incredible footage, but he's been chasing long enough to know how that's going to cause people to copycat him.

I met him long ago and he was always a bit of a thrill seeker but he really seems to have gone overboard with it lately. I thought Joplin would have finally cured him if it...doesn't seem to be the case. It's frustrating when pros do what they tell the public not to. He was VERY close to being the first stormchaser death ever caught on camera.

Edit: point of clarification. I used to chase and was a storm spotter for the local weather service, but there's a huge difference between smart chasing and being reckless. Jeff has fallen into the latter category. Glad to see he's staying away this time.

All he's gotta do is bring that blue shed to hide in and he's fine.

[UNT Eagles 2016]

Irma-geddon official National Hurricane Center track is a direct hit on Miami as a high end cat 4 or weak cat 5, going NNW or N from there

[UNT Eagles 2016]

Say goodbye to her. I mean it. Tell her to write her social security number on her arm and stomach so they can identify her body.

What? It's going towards Miami, not Tampa. Only bad thing for Tampa is that the Bucs have to play the whole season without a bye just like the Dolphins now.

[hater]

This is EXACTLY why I've asked that people refrain from posting unless they have the credentials to comment intelligently on Hurricane Irma.

Bendover Ill show you my credentials

[UNT Eagles 2016]

Bendover Ill show you my credentials

I was a pretty hardcore junior meteorologist until I realized I sucked at Physics when I took it pre-AP in 11th grade. I've always followed just about every hurricane and hurricane season since Floyd in 1999, a few of the really dead seasons like 2009 and 2013 I pretty much lost interest but now it looks like Atlantic tropics are back now that we have a GOP president again.

[Cry Havoc]

What? It's going towards Miami, not Tampa. Only bad thing for Tampa is that the Bucs have to play the whole season without a bye just like the Dolphins now.

"going towards" when we're 5 days out really doesn't mean much. It could make landfall anywhere still.

Also Irma is over 400 miles wide, may widen more as it increases further in strength, and Florida is less than 180 miles across at it's widest. So it would be very possible for Tampa to get ~150mph winds if she makes a late turn and heads due N.

If you're on the coast anywhere on the peninsula and you stay, you are putting your life at risk.

[UNT Eagles 2016]

"going towards" when we're 5 days out really doesn't mean much. It could make landfall anywhere still.

Also Irma is over 400 miles wide, may widen more as it increases further in strength, and Florida is less than 180 miles across at it's widest. So it would be very possible for Tampa to get ~150mph winds if she makes a late turn and heads due N.

If you're on the coast anywhere on the peninsula and you stay, you are putting your life at risk.

It might only be a cat 4 at landfall though

[Cry Havoc]

It might only be a cat 4 at landfall though

Which would potentially be 150mph winds.

SSTs support a much stronger storm than that, though, and our models are notoriously conservative with intensity. They predicted Harvey to make landfall as a weak/mid cat 2, for instance.

[SpursforSix]

I was a pretty hardcore junior meteorologist until I realized I sucked at Physics when I took it pre-AP in 11th grade. I've always followed just about every hurricane and hurricane season since Floyd in 1999, a few of the really dead seasons like 2009 and 2013 I pretty much lost interest but now it looks like Atlantic tropics are back now that we have a GOP president again.

You know what we call junior meteorologists? "Rain Drops".

True story...one time I was working on some pattern models and this Rain Drop comes up to me and asks if he could help. I knocked my glass of scotch over and said, "no...now dance". And then pulled out my pistol and shot at his feet. But I was drunk and shot him in his femoral artery.

[Mark Celibate]

I was a pretty hardcore junior meteorologist until I realized I sucked at Physics when I took it pre-AP in 11th grade. I've always followed just about every hurricane and hurricane season since Floyd in 1999, a few of the really dead seasons like 2009 and 2013 I pretty much lost interest but now it looks like Atlantic tropics are back now that we have a GOP president again.

Preap Physics is a thing? I thought it was either AP or regular physics for the brainlets

[pgardn]

Preap Physics is a thing? I thought it was either AP or regular physics for the brainlets

The parents probably like the name.

[Cry Havoc]

https://www.facebook.com/drew.alston.9/videos/10211811176168129/

[UNT Eagles 2016]

Preap Physics is a thing? I thought it was either AP or regular physics for the brainlets

Yes. There is pre-AP physics, but no pre-AP social studies or English beyond 10th grade. Also, no pre-AP math beyond pre-calculus.

There is also AP Physics for seniors who excelled in regular or pre-AP Physics in 11th grade. Most schools offer AP Biology as well. Only a small percentage of high schools in Texas offer AP Chemistry, sadly mine didn't.

[florige]

Since she's going to die anyways can you post her nudes?



Sorry I don't have none. lol I haven't heard from her so hopefully she is getting out of dodge.

[Cry Havoc]

Operationally still a 175mph storm this morning. HH aircraft found 147 knot winds in the N quad.

[Cry Havoc]

Make that 180mph. She just won't lose strength.

[SpursforSix]

I'll agree that an expanding wind field is likely once the system begins to interact with the baroclinic zone and starts undergoing ET. Seems to me based on model guidance though that the forecast for decreasing intensity in models is (1) because they generally don't show maintained intensity Cat 5 for whatever dynamical or numerical reasons (they've been showing weakening for a day and a half), and (2) because they are fairly well anti-correlated with vertical shear (which should gradually increase over the next few days). Human forecasts (NHC) have shown decreasing intensity in accordance with model guidance, and the low statistical likelihood that TCs maintain 150 kt + intensity for an extended period of time.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/applications/core/interface/imageproxy/imageproxy.php?img=http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/products/storms/2017AL11/DIAGPLOT/2017AL11_DIAGPLOT_201709071200.png&key=2f83e0d72e9b321ec3e1cfbf151d47ef8f47feaa076614 0ac225b07bc1654a49 (https://www.americanwx.com/bb/applications/core/interface/imageproxy/imageproxy.php?img=http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/products/storms/2017AL11/DIAGPLOT/2017AL11_DIAGPLOT_201709071200.png&key=2f83e0d72e9b321ec3e1cfbf151d47ef8f47feaa076614 0ac225b07bc1654a49)

[Darth_Pelican]

https://scontent-dft4-2.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/21430498_1345367712257379_2291136047011476171_n.jp g?oh=4f1ec6607291785d76d040c2d3adbe11&oe=5A17F4E7

[SpursforSix]

Yeah so clearly this is not a good run (in terms of impacts) on the Euro. At hour 72 the track is right through the keys and places the higher population densities in the RFQ. The pressure drops 12mb while it's in the straight so the Euro thinks it will be intensifying up to LF.


https://www.americanwx.com/bb/applications/core/interface/imageproxy/imageproxy.php?img=http://i.imgur.com/PyJbNNB.png&key=58511cd252e4bb8be537c09b833ef1ad0bdf8f8f86d11d 191c575fa6d23fdea3 (https://www.americanwx.com/bb/applications/core/interface/imageproxy/imageproxy.php?img=http://i.imgur.com/PyJbNNB.png&key=58511cd252e4bb8be537c09b833ef1ad0bdf8f8f86d11d 191c575fa6d23fdea3)

[LaMarcus Bryant]

Spurstalk is funny because a young douche that posted bout how he got his first pubes 2 years previous always becomes a huge hurricane and weather dilettante.

Tell us more about the barometric pressure, guitardude

[SpursforSix]

This is a pretty cool pic

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2017_09/IMG_1077.thumb.JPG.db057268c2cc61fef983c295eb83b1c e.JPG

[UNT Eagles 2016]

This is a pretty cool pic

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2017_09/IMG_1077.thumb.JPG.db057268c2cc61fef983c295eb83b1c e.JPG

Fortunately Igor and Julia were fish storms. We won't get so lucky this time

[Cry Havoc]

Nightmare situation developing for Miami and West Palm Beach right now. You couldn't draw a storm path that would be worse, and Irma is much stronger than Andrew was when he made landfall. And larger.

https://i.imgur.com/zMc6cQ4_d.webp?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium

[baseline bum]

Nightmare situation developing for Miami and West Palm Beach right now. You couldn't draw a storm path that would be worse, and Irma is much stronger than Andrew was when he made landfall. And larger.

https://i.imgur.com/zMc6cQ4_d.webp?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium

So you're saying $100 million of the disaster aid will go to Mar A Lago?

[UNT Eagles 2016]

Down to 175 mph

Likely a very weak cat 5 or strong cat 4 at landfall.


Katia a cat 2-3 at landfall, leaning towards the latter

Jose loops around and threatens the US in about a week as a major.

NHC just put a yellow crayon up for a likely developing cyclone off the coast of Africa in a couple days, this one will get the name Lee but likely not strengthen too much and go out to sea quickly

Behind pre-Lee is a stronger wave that will emerge further south and travel west, has the potential to become a low-riding potential Windward Islands/Caribbean threat in a week to 10 days or so. The next name on the list would be Maria.

[Darth_Pelican]

Jeff is getting ready. At the end of his fuel video, he said that he's heading to wherever the storm is most likely to touch down.

https://www.pscp.tv/Jeff_Piotrowski/1vAxRNEDXXaxl?

[SpursforSix]

Jeff is getting ready

https://www.pscp.tv/Jeff_Piotrowski/1vAxRNEDXXaxl?

I thought he was sitting this one out.

But if he does do this, he needs to cover his body with cameras and live stream it so if he dies, maybe a few of the cameras will still be functional.

[baseline bum]

Jeff is getting ready. At the end of his fuel video, he said that he's heading to wherever the storm is most likely to touch down.

https://www.pscp.tv/Jeff_Piotrowski/1vAxRNEDXXaxl?

Nice. His coverage of Harvey was can't miss shit.

[Darth_Pelican]

Pretty big shift to the west in the latest forecast

[hater]

DAmn Sharknado

906209779441217536

[UNT Eagles 2016]

DAmn Sharknado

906209779441217536
Better go to Home Depot and buy a chainsaw before they're all sold out!

[Mark Celibate]

The real question is where will Jim Cantore be?

[RD2191]

Jeff is getting ready. At the end of his fuel video, he said that he's heading to wherever the storm is most likely to touch down.

https://www.pscp.tv/Jeff_Piotrowski/1vAxRNEDXXaxl?

Was about to ask if this dude was going to stream again. Should be good.

[RD2191]

The real question is where will Jim Cantore be?

200 miles away hiding in a hotel room, occasionally shooting clips from the parking lot while hamming it up for the camera.

[spurraider21]

Pretty clear sign that Allah is punishing us for electing trump

[AaronY]

gd I'm 20-30 miles North of Tampa near the coast..terrified of thing tbh

[AaronY]

I guess my power will almost definitely go out at the very least (?)

[baseline bum]

I guess my power will almost definitely go out at the very least (?)

You got your gauge for the looters?

[SnakeBoy]

I guess my power will almost definitely go out at the very least (?)

There's a chance the eye stays offshore as it travels up the west coast of Florida. Worse case scenario for all of Florida.

If I were you I'd already be on a weekend road trip.

[hater]

gd I'm 20-30 miles North of Tampa near the coast..terrified of thing tbh

Get the fuck out while you can

[baseline bum]

I'm worried about Jeff man. He's staying in a highrise hotel in South Beach. He'd be much safer had he brought the Blue Shed with him.

[hater]

Wth is jeff?? D guy from d wiggles?

[InRareForm]

Is Jeff the best storm chaser out there?

[UNT Eagles 2016]

Irma back to category 5 strength

[Aztecfan03]

Yes. There is pre-AP physics, but no pre-AP social studies or English beyond 10th grade. Also, no pre-AP math beyond pre-calculus.

There is also AP Physics for seniors who excelled in regular or pre-AP Physics in 11th grade. Most schools offer AP Biology as well. Only a small percentage of high schools in Texas offer AP Chemistry, sadly mine didn't.

I took AP physics in 11th grade out here in California. No pre-ap bullshit here.

[hater]

Damn those Cubans got d best hurricane emergency system in the world

They even evacuated the dolphins :wow

Run circles around our emergency system

[hater]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DJSK7QqUIAIH0c3?format=jpg&name=large

[Mark Celibate]

I took AP physics in 11th grade out here in California. No pre-ap bullshit here.

In the competitive school districts, I think AP Physics I is actually taken sophomore year since there are three of them (1, 2, and C) just to clear way for the others. Although tbh, I've heard Physiics II is not a valuable class so I've often seen Soph - AP Physics I, Jun - AP Chem, Sen - Physics C. This is mainly those that know they're doing Engineering early on.

[Mark Celibate]

Damn those Cubans got d best hurricane emergency system in the world

They even evacuated the dolphins :wow

Run circles around our emergency system

Irma BTFO by Cuba

BTFO
T
F
O

[baseline bum]

Anyone check Jeff's latest feed? I just started watching and he's got three storms with tornadoes that he's showing off out the car window as he's driving down the highway, I guess to try to get to them. I think he said he was 30 ESE of Naples.

[UNT Eagles 2016]

I took AP physics in 11th grade out here in California. No pre-ap bullshit here.

they don't let you do that in TX without previous physics experience/coursework. Either you have to have had regular physics, pre-AP physics, or college credit physics at the junior college.

[UNT Eagles 2016]

Irma torn apart by Cuba, down to a minimal cat 3... BUST?!??

[baseline bum]

Irma torn apart by Cuba, down to a minimal cat 3... BUST?!??

Like Harvey was a bust?

[pgardn]

they don't let you do that in TX without previous physics experience/coursework. Either you have to have had regular physics, pre-AP physics, or college credit physics at the junior college.

Yes they do in Texas as of 3 years ago as well as the rest of the nation.

Its called AP Physics 1.

It requires no previous physics course and can give a student credit for college (algebra based) physics. I found this out from another co worker when I thought his kid was taking AP Physics B, which no longer exists. And based on what I saw of some practice MC questions it's actually tougher conceptually than AP physics C (Calculus based HS physics)

[baseline bum]

Yes they do in Texas as of 3 years ago as well as the rest of the nation.

Its called AP Physics 1.

It requires no previous physics course and can give a student credit for college (algebra based) physics. I found this out from another co worker when I thought his kid was taking AP Physics B, which no longer exists. And based on what I saw of some practice MC questions it's actually tougher conceptually than AP physics C (Calculus based HS physics)

HS Algebra based physics courses should be tougher than physics using calculus, since calculus is the natural language of physics.

[pgardn]

HS Algebra based physics courses should be tougher than physics using calculus, since calculus is the natural language of physics.

Actually no because you are relegated to easier math problems in Algebra based physics. You can still take slopes and areas as long as they are easy. And Calculus based physics in HS actually has some differential equations, the change of charge in a capacitor, air resistance... It's a bit strange but I have helped kids with both.

I just found it interesting that the conceptual part was more difficult in the algebra based MC, not necessarily the FR.

[Mark Celibate]

they don't let you do that in TX without previous physics experience/coursework. Either you have to have had regular physics, pre-AP physics, or college credit physics at the junior college.

Things have changed, brah. AP 1 just requires Algebra so you can take it by Soph year although knowing some lrecal could be beneficial for vectors. In the good school districts, preap physics doesn't exist anymore but preap Chem does and is required before AP Chem

[pgardn]

Things have changed, brah. AP 1 just requires Algebra so you can take it by Soph year although knowing some lrecal could be beneficial for vectors. In the good school districts, preap physics doesn't exist anymore but preap Chem does and is required before AP Chem

Yes.

[pgardn]

Damn those Cubans got d best hurricane emergency system in the world

They even evacuated the dolphins :wow

Run circles around our emergency system

Thats important if you live in shacks made of driftwood.
And they rely on the US to inform them of paths intensity and what not.

Good try though with the Cuban paradise.

[baseline bum]

Actually no because you are relegated to easier math problems in Algebra based physics. You can still take slopes and areas as long as they are easy. And Calculus based physics in HS actually has some differential equations, the change of charge in a capacitor, air resistance... It's a bit strange but I have helped kids with both.

I just found it interesting that the conceptual part was more difficult in the algebra based MC, not necessarily the FR.

Easier math doesn't make easier problems though. Seeing derivatives formalized in a calc class really helps a lot of the concepts in early mechanics click IMO. I personally felt completely lost in algebra based physics, trying to memorize formulas that we had to take on faith. It's one of the same reasons I didn't like freshman chemistry, since you don't have the tools to understand wavefunctions and such at that stage. But once you know calc the concepts seem almost obvious in a freshman mechanics course.

Also I don't see how any high school physics course could be discussing differential equations involving air resistance in any meaningful way considering they're nonlinear due to the friction term proportional to the square of speed that makes them solvable only numerically. Even something as simple as throwing a ball in the air goes from the easiest ODE ever to requiring MATLAB/C/etc once you throw in a non-negligible air resistance term. No more elegant and symmetric parabolic trajectory.

[UNT Eagles 2016]

Yes they do in Texas as of 3 years ago as well as the rest of the nation.

Its called AP Physics 1.

It requires no previous physics course and can give a student credit for college (algebra based) physics. I found this out from another co worker when I thought his kid was taking AP Physics B, which no longer exists. And based on what I saw of some practice MC questions it's actually tougher conceptually than AP physics C (Calculus based HS physics)
oh okay, I graduated before that, so there's that

AP Physics 1 / A = "Mechanics" or "University Physics" -- but will also be accepted as the physics requirement for pre-health professional tracks
AP Physics 2 / C = "Electricity & Magnetism" or "University Physics II" -- usually an unnecessary class to take if you're NOT studying to be an engineer or physics major.

[UNT Eagles 2016]

Things have changed, brah. AP 1 just requires Algebra so you can take it by Soph year although knowing some lrecal could be beneficial for vectors. In the good school districts, preap physics doesn't exist anymore but preap Chem does and is required before AP Chem
So it now requires algebra 2 or just algebra 1? Because I had algebra 1 pre-ap done in middle school with a 99% grade.

That's a damn shame because I would have rather gotten, say, AP physics (along with AP biology instead of pre-AP biology) out of the way freshman year when I was isolated socially and motivated to work my ass off in school instead of junior year when I hit a real lull and was more interested in doing things with friends and going out with girls. I ended up getting a B+ (88) my first semester of pre-AP physics and dropped down to regular physics for the second semester.

[pgardn]

Easier math doesn't make easier problems though. Seeing derivatives formalized in a calc class really helps a lot of the concepts in early mechanics click IMO. I personally felt completely lost in algebra based physics, trying to memorize formulas that we had to take on faith. It's one of the same reasons I didn't like freshman chemistry, since you don't have the tools to understand wavefunctions and such at that stage. But once you know calc the concepts seem almost obvious in a freshman mechanics course.

Also I don't see how any high school physics course could be discussing differential equations involving air resistance in any meaningful way considering they're nonlinear due to the friction term proportional to the square of speed that makes them solvable only numerically. Even something as simple as throwing a ball in the air goes from the easiest ODE ever to requiring MATLAB/C/etc once you throw in a non-negligible air resistance term. No more elegant and symmetric parabolic trajectory.

They are forced to ask easier problems from a math point of view because you don't ask them to do real derivatives or integrals. And yes they most certainly do ask problems in HS AP Physics C that need introduction to differentials. I have seen them with my own eyes.

And algebra physics from a kinematic point of view only requires memorizing delta x/t = v and deltaV/t = a

All the kinematic equations can be derived from these. Also they must realize (v f + vo)/2 = v avg as long as accel is constant.

Then F= ma and learn how to draw free body diagrams. You have to memorize the equation for gravitation and electrical force in C as well as these equations can't be derived from simple ideas concerning kinematics. Even work and momentum can come from kinematic sand F = ma. Oh, mu for friction. Almost All the equations are on the all 3 AP exams anyways. Using them properly is a whole different ability.

Look at the 13 min mark of this very good video for Physics C in HS. This guy is really good imo, just found it. There are others for capacitors as well. And they are not difficult, but they are 1st order differentials.

http://aplusphysics.com/wordpress/apc/tag/differential-equations/

[baseline bum]

They are forced to ask easier problems from a math point of view because you don't ask them to do real derivatives or integrals. And yes they most certainly do ask problems in HS AP Physics C that need introduction to differentials. I have seen them with my own eyes.

And algebra physics from a kinematic point of view only requires memorizing delta x/t = v and deltaV/t = a

All the kinematic equations can be derived from these. Also they must realize (v f + vo)/2 = v avg as long as accel is constant.

Then F= ma and learn how to draw free body diagrams. You have to memorize the equation for gravitation and electrical force in C as well as these equations can't be derived from simple ideas concerning kinematics. Even work and momentum can come from kinematic sand F = ma. Oh, mu for friction. Almost All the equations are on the all 3 AP exams anyways. Using them properly is a whole different ability.

Well Newtonian gravitation and electrical forces can't be derived period, as they're experimental results. Though you actually can derive magnetism from the electric field and the postulates of special relativity. Purcell's E&M book has an awesome derivation of the magnetic field due to a wire carrying a steady current.

[pgardn]

Well Newtonian gravitation and electrical forces can't be derived period, as they're experimental results. Though you actually can derive magnetism from the electric field and the postulates of special relativity. Purcell's E&M book has an awesome derivation of the magnetic field due to a wire carrying a steady current.

Absolutely.

Which is why I wrote the above. Although the genius in taking empirical data and coming up with this stuff is amazing.

Kepler, well before Newton, had done this with planetary orbits thus the R^3/T^2 = constant for things that orbit the sun or any satellites orbiting a large mass(though the constant would be diff) And Newton's law of gravitation along with centripetal force confirmed Keplers derivation (or better said, mathematical model that fit the data) from empirical stuff.

Frkn amazing, for me anyways.

[Mark Celibate]

Actually no because you are relegated to easier math problems in Algebra based physics. You can still take slopes and areas as long as they are easy. And Calculus based physics in HS actually has some differential equations, the change of charge in a capacitor, air resistance... It's a bit strange but I have helped kids with both.

I just found it interesting that the conceptual part was more difficult in the algebra based MC, not necessarily the FR.

I know which one you're talking about. tbh I remembered the charged capacitor Diff Eq since I just habitually use the integrating factor method due to it being faster but they use a more difficult approach IMO

In my experience, the changing variables of integration gives students the most trouble since they don't really cover it in Calc II other than u-sub. That, and the nonuniform density stuff

Edit: Just saw that you posted a Dan Fullerton video. He really is the best IMO

[Mark Celibate]

So it now requires algebra 2 or just algebra 1? Because I had algebra 1 pre-ap done in middle school with a 99% grade.

That's a damn shame because I would have rather gotten, say, AP physics (along with AP biology instead of pre-AP biology) out of the way freshman year when I was isolated socially and motivated to work my ass off in school instead of junior year when I hit a real lull and was more interested in doing things with friends and going out with girls. I ended up getting a B+ (88) my first semester of pre-AP physics and dropped down to regular physics for the second semester.

requires Algebra I and should be taken concurrently with Alg II I believe. Maybe you can get away with taking it concurrently with Geometry (Still don't know why they do Alg 1, Geometry, and Alg II in that order...never made sense to me)

[baseline bum]

I know which one you're talking about. tbh I remembered the charged capacitor Diff Eq since I just habitually use the integrating factor method due to it being faster but they use a more difficult approach IMO

In my experience, the changing variables of integration gives students the most trouble since they don't really cover it in Calc II other than u-sub. That, and the nonuniform density stuff

Edit: Just saw that you posted a Dan Fullerton video. He really is the best IMO

I hate memorization so I would never use integrating factors to solve those kind of constant coefficient first order linear equation. You could just shift the origin of the coordinate you were solving for (eg Q --> Q-a for whatever a made your life easier) and it would transform into a homogeneous equation that you could just integrate and then add back a tbh. Still not as fun as Bernoulli equations when we're talking first order though.

[Mark Celibate]

I hate memorization so I would never use integrating factors to solve those kind of constant coefficient first order linear equation. You could just shift the origin of the coordinate you were solving for (eg Q --> Q-a for whatever a made your life easier) and it would transform into a homogeneous equation that you could just integrate and then add back a tbh. Still not as fun as Bernoulli equations when we're talking first order though.

:lol yeah that's definitely a much better way. For some reason, the integrating factor is one of those things that I just have down forever in memory like the quadratic formula

[UNT Eagles 2016]

requires Algebra I and should be taken concurrently with Alg II I believe. Maybe you can get away with taking it concurrently with Geometry (Still don't know why they do Alg 1, Geometry, and Alg II in that order...never made sense to me)

agree with you there... also I don't get why they don't just teach geometry as part of pre-cal, there is too much "old" crap from algebra 1 and before that's covered in geometry honestly (like practically the whole first semester goes by doing slope-intercept form, factoring radicals, e.g. stuff you learn in algebra 1 and middle school math without even getting to soh-cah-toa), and too much algebra 2 crap covered in pre-cal. Pre-cal should be geometry, trig, and a little bit on sequences and conics. They really need to skim down and do less teaching twice and 3 times the same stuff in multiple years/courses. Throw out the "geometry" class and teach the important stuff first semester of pre-cal... but they won't.

also... why can't you take algebra II and geometry concurrently? I don't understand that... because you don't really need geometry to ace algebra II or vice versa. Instead of taking some gimmick classes your freshman year of high school, why not take...

- PreAP English I
- PreAP World Geography (that's piss easy)
- PreAP Algebra II
- PreAP Geometry
- Lunch (waste of time, but the school requires it so they can sell their shitty food I'd never eat at a high premium... I guess useful to do HW)
- AP Biology (if you're smart enough... Pre-AP was too easy for me IMO)
- PreAP Foreign Language I
- Elective (sports or PE, art, band, etc)

Sophomore year...

- PreAP English II
- AP World History (this is another one of those that's irrelevant for college though, they require US but that's about it... don't waste money on this AP test)
- PreAP Pre-Calculus
- PreAP Chemistry
- Lunch
- AP Physics
- PreAP Foreign Language II
- Elective

Junior year...

- AP English III (those timed writings are rough)
- AP US History
- AP Calculus AB
- AP Statistics
- PreAP Foreign Language III (take as Dual Credit if you can)
- Lunch
- AP Chemistry (if your school has it... mine did not sadly)
- Elective

Senior year...

- English IV regular (because English IV AP test nets a practically worthless college credit in British Lit, unrequired for most STEM college majors)
- AP Government/Macroeconomics
- Elective (have you had your fine arts and athletic requirements by now?)
- Elective (health and speech requirement? I don't know if they still require this)
- Elective
- Lunch
- OFF Block
- OFF Block

.... why take "break" periods, like most TX high schools will allow you if you have a job or college? To dink off... nope. Enroll in your local community college instead, and take second-year college courses that will be relevant to your major. If you want to be a business major, take accounting I and II, microeconomics, and business computer IS. If you want to be pre-health, take organic chemistry I and II, microbiology, and anatomy & physiology. If you want to be engineering, take University Physics II, Calculus II, Calculus III and an intro to engineering course. If you want to be computer science, take all those except the intro to computer science course instead of the intro to engineering.

This all sets you up nicely to start your freshman year of college as a JUNIOR, with roughly 60 credit hours (or more) when you first walk into your dorm room. It still allows you to be well rounded in high school and be in sports or whatever you like to do. Imagine that... being only 20 years old and starting your career (or perhaps health professional school)... nice, huh? I wish I had done that. Oh well, I'll do that with my kids when I have kids.

[SnakeBoy]

Hurricane Irma

[pgardn]

Hurricane Irma

Meterologists have to take Calculus, but not Albert Flores.

[UNT Eagles 2016]

Irma done menstruating, back up to cat 4

[baseline bum]

Key West and the lower keys now getting wrecked by the worst part of the eye wall.

[UNT Eagles 2016]

Key West and the lower keys now getting wrecked by the worst part of the eye wall.

Makes me hungry for Key Lime Pie.

[Mark Celibate]

agree with you there... also I don't get why they don't just teach geometry as part of pre-cal, there is too much "old" crap from algebra 1 and before that's covered in geometry honestly (like practically the whole first semester goes by doing slope-intercept form, factoring radicals, e.g. stuff you learn in algebra 1 and middle school math without even getting to soh-cah-toa), and too much algebra 2 crap covered in pre-cal. Pre-cal should be geometry, trig, and a little bit on sequences and conics. They really need to skim down and do less teaching twice and 3 times the same stuff in multiple years/courses. Throw out the "geometry" class and teach the important stuff first semester of pre-cal... but they won't.

also... why can't you take algebra II and geometry concurrently? I don't understand that... because you don't really need geometry to ace algebra II or vice versa. Instead of taking some gimmick classes your freshman year of high school, why not take...

- PreAP English I
- PreAP World Geography (that's piss easy)
- PreAP Algebra II
- PreAP Geometry
- Lunch (waste of time, but the school requires it so they can sell their shitty food I'd never eat at a high premium... I guess useful to do HW)
- AP Biology (if you're smart enough... Pre-AP was too easy for me IMO)
- PreAP Foreign Language I
- Elective (sports or PE, art, band, etc)

Sophomore year...

- PreAP English II
- AP World History (this is another one of those that's irrelevant for college though, they require US but that's about it... don't waste money on this AP test)
- PreAP Pre-Calculus
- PreAP Chemistry
- Lunch
- AP Physics
- PreAP Foreign Language II
- Elective

Junior year...

- AP English III (those timed writings are rough)
- AP US History
- AP Calculus AB
- AP Statistics
- PreAP Foreign Language III (take as Dual Credit if you can)
- Lunch
- AP Chemistry (if your school has it... mine did not sadly)
- Elective

Senior year...

- English IV regular (because English IV AP test nets a practically worthless college credit in British Lit, unrequired for most STEM college majors)
- AP Government/Macroeconomics
- Elective (have you had your fine arts and athletic requirements by now?)
- Elective (health and speech requirement? I don't know if they still require this)
- Elective
- Lunch
- OFF Block
- OFF Block

.... why take "break" periods, like most TX high schools will allow you if you have a job or college? To dink off... nope. Enroll in your local community college instead, and take second-year college courses that will be relevant to your major. If you want to be a business major, take accounting I and II, microeconomics, and business computer IS. If you want to be pre-health, take organic chemistry I and II, microbiology, and anatomy & physiology. If you want to be engineering, take University Physics II, Calculus II, Calculus III and an intro to engineering course. If you want to be computer science, take all those except the intro to computer science course instead of the intro to engineering.

This all sets you up nicely to start your freshman year of college as a JUNIOR, with roughly 60 credit hours (or more) when you first walk into your dorm room. It still allows you to be well rounded in high school and be in sports or whatever you like to do. Imagine that... being only 20 years old and starting your career (or perhaps health professional school)... nice, huh? I wish I had done that. Oh well, I'll do that with my kids when I have kids.

You're allowed to all that though in the quality school districts. I've seen plenty of students take Alg II and Geometry concurrently in order to get to Calculus by Senior year. I've private tutored as a side hobby, and it's mainly been students from great school districts so I'm not sure how it is in others. Obviously classes like Calc BC and Physics C are not offered everywhere. I tutored one inner city student but she was homeschooled (good for her) and I never got a chance to see how the school she would've been zoned to did things. She was very bright, but very behind so I imagine the schools there are as shit as advertised.

As far as your idea of combining four math classes into three is concerned, not a bad idea. I think there are just too many students who think math is "dumb" who would get overwhelmed unfortunately.


Hurricane Irma
tbh storm hasn't hit any major large cities so there's nothing for TWC geeks to masturbate too. like thispego said, those meteorologists love to take the moral high ground, but they love their destruction and mass casualties

[UNT Eagles 2016]

You're allowed to all that though in the quality school districts. I've seen plenty of students take Alg II and Geometry concurrently in order to get to Calculus by Senior year. I've private tutored as a side hobby, and it's mainly been students from great school districts so I'm not sure how it is in others. Obviously classes like Calc BC and Physics C are not offered everywhere. I tutored one inner city student but she was homeschooled (good for her) and I never got a chance to see how the school she would've been zoned to did things. She was very bright, but very behind so I imagine the schools there are as shit as advertised.

shit, i'd have my kids in calc BC and stats by freshman year in HS... once they start middle school, they need to be taking summer courses tbh. No more being a little kid

[baseline bum]

Looks like Jeff might have the eye pass over him this time too

https://www.pscp.tv/Jeff_Piotrowski/1MnGnmNQrAyKO

[baseline bum]

Time to bend over for Irma, AaronY

906894255381250049

[baseline bum]

tbh storm hasn't hit any major large cities so there's nothing for TWC geeks to masturbate too. like thispego said, those meteorologists love to take the moral high ground, but they love their destruction and mass casualties

LOL that shit's true. Just like I remember watching the WTC coverage live and I was counting the people jumping out of the buildings. The Mexican stations wouldn't cut away like the American ones did with jumpers.

[Will Hunting]

That water looks borderline toxic. Is that really how water in the gulf is?

[DMC]

That water looks borderline toxic. Is that really how water in the gulf is?

:lol you cannot drink saltwater anyhow

I think that part of the gulf is normally crystal clear but there's an algae that grows that changes the appearance of the color from above.

[baseline bum]

This is the time to start checking Jeff out. He's something like 10 miles from the eyewall.

https://www.pscp.tv/Jeff_Piotrowski/1LyxBEydlDnJN

[baseline bum]

LOL some Florida meth head went to Jeff's car and started shouting him down for being out in this storm :lmao

[baseline bum]

Here comes the eye wall. LMAO that meth addict, I hope she got back in her trailer.

[RD2191]

:lol what a bust of a hurricane.

[apalisoc_9]

:lol what a bust of a hurricane.

:lol

Mexico Mexico got hit with an 8.0 though..:sad

[baseline bum]

:lol what a bust of a hurricane.

Well there was that part about it obliterating Barbuda, doing a bunch of damage in Sint Maarten, completely raping Cuba, and the storm surge doing some really nasty damage in the Keys.

[SnakeBoy]

I guess Jeff got bored and went home

[hater]

This is like when a chick is looking forward to a guy and he turns out to be gay :lmao

[apalisoc_9]

This is like when a chick is looking forward to a guy and he turns out to be gay :lmao

Five million people evacuated bro :lol

[Cry Havoc]

Is Jeff the best storm chaser out there?

Nah, probably not even close. The only reason he got such crazy footage of Harvey is because he badly misjudged it's landfalling intensity and it almost killed him.

IMO the best chasers right now are Basehunters. They almost always get a storm if one pops off and are usually in good position. They're more of a tornado chasing crew though. I was actually surprised to see Jeff go after these two.