Hurricane Irma

[RandomGuy]

Well, shit.

Hurricane Irma 'Rapidly Intensifying' In Atlantic Ocean

http://media.nj.com/new-jersey-weather/photo/hurricane-irma-aug-31-nhcjpg-a1b5e2fc1df3863a.jpg

https://www.yahoo.com/news/hurricane-irma-apos-rapidly-intensifying-163246420.html

[hater]

Yeah been watching it for a week

When it rains it pours

[DarrinS]

Welp

[boutons_deux]

nearly all models have it going FL and East Coast, and some having Irma not making landfall.

[ducks]

http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=270242&p=9129935#post9129935
Already posted

[spurraider21]

Mother nature sweeping the leg tbh

[RandomGuy]

nearly all models have it going FL and East Coast, and some having Irma not making landfall.

https://heavyeditorial.files.wordpress.com/2017/09/irma-forecast-e1504581024408.png?w=704

5 days later, it looks to nail Florida, enroute to the inner Gulf of Mexico, where waters, due to global warming, are unseasonably warm.

[DarrinS]

Unseasonably warm. We are near the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. This is when they are expected.

[TeyshaBlue]

Ive got family in Ft. Meyers. I told them to board up and get the fuck out of there now and heard to Georgia. This thing looks like it's going to erase Puerto Rico, Haiti and Cuba before it straddles Southern Florida. Jeebus.

[DMC]

Ive got family in Ft. Meyers. I told them to board up and get the fuck out of there now and heard to Georgia. This thing looks like it's going to erase Puerto Rico, Haiti and Cuba before it straddles Southern Florida. Jeebus.

I'd skirt Georgia and head a bit further tbh

[AaronY]

5NNOrp_83RU

[baseline bum]

Ive got family in Ft. Meyers. I told them to board up and get the fuck out of there now and heard to Georgia. This thing looks like it's going to erase Puerto Rico, Haiti and Cuba before it straddles Southern Florida. Jeebus.

Yeah gotta GTFO while you can. Don't want to end up stuck in bumper to bumper like when Houston evacuated back in what, 04?

[TeyshaBlue]

Yeah gotta GTFO while you can. Don't want to end up stuck in bumper to bumper like when Houston evacuated back in what, 04?

That's what I was worried about. Get out now before everyone else jams the freeway.

[rmt]

That's what I was worried about. Get out now before everyone else jams the freeway.

Kinda hard to leave when we still have work and school - not to mention mother, mother-in-law and widowed sister each living alone - someone's got to put up their shutters and dig them out if they're trapped. We had been planning to go to Orlando for Night of Joy and Rock the Universe (Christian concerts) this weekend but don't want to be trapped on the road or in Orlando. This monster could hit anywhere. At home, we have shutters, generators, supplies, chain-saw, etc. - not that that'll matter with 185 mph winds. I just hope it doesn't hit between downtown Miami and Fort Lauderdale - it'll wipe out the airports and business centers. Hurricane Andrew was much smaller and quick moving so we started repairs right away and hit south of the city of Miami (the residential suburbs).

I guess it's selfish of me to hope that it hits the east coast of Florida but it's much less dense there with Tampa/Sarasota/St. Pete compared to Miami/Fort Lauderdale/West Palm Beach.

[UNT Eagles 2016]

My advice is to NOT evacuate if you live on the FL peninsula. Traffic is too bad and you could run out of gas in stop-and-go traffic on the highway with any fuel stations in the area being sold out.

My advice: Ride out the storm and stay prepared, have a functional generator in your house and plenty of nonperishable food.

[Spurminator]

I guess it's selfish of me to hope that it hits the east coast of Florida but it's much less dense there with Tampa/Sarasota/St. Pete

Confused.

[hater]

Yeah been watching it for a week

When it rains it pours

Called this shit

This thing is a mosta

[rmt]

Confused.

Huh? Do you mean that I am confused or that you are confused?

[Spurminator]

Huh? Do you mean that I am confused or that you are confused?

I am. How does Irma hitting the East Coast of Florida impact Tampa more than WPB/Miami?

[rmt]

Sorry, my bad - I meant West Coast.

[Spurminator]

No problem, I should have assumed that.

At this size, hard to imagine Irma wouldn't impact both areas/coasts regardless.

[TeyshaBlue]

My advice is to NOT evacuate if you live on the FL peninsula. Traffic is too bad and you could run out of gas in stop-and-go traffic on the highway with any fuel stations in the area being sold out.

My advice: Ride out the storm and stay prepared, have a functional generator in your house and plenty of nonperishable food.

Well, shit. They're both in their 70's.:depressed

[boutons_deux]

Rush Limbaugh: Hurricane Irma Part of ‘Deep State’ Conspiracy to Advance ‘Climate Change Agenda’

https://am11.akamaized.net/med/cnt/uploads/2017/07/rush.png

“The reason that I am leery of forecasts this far out, folks, is because I see how the system works,” Limbaugh noted, adding that this is something you can see in the way “the deep state deals with Trump.”

https://www.mediaite.com/online/rush-limbaugh-hurricane-irma-part-of-deep-state-conspiracy-to-advance-climate-change-agenda/

or, Limp Balls spells it proving the CIA formed Irma

CIrmA

[AaronY]

I'm in central florida like 30 miles north of tampa. people already going nuts at the grocery store with the water and such.

[CosmicCowboy]

https://heavyeditorial.files.wordpress.com/2017/09/irma-forecast-e1504581024408.png?w=704

5 days later, it looks to nail Florida, enroute to the inner Gulf of Mexico, where waters, due to global warming, are unseasonably warm.

Your claim that gulf water temps are due to global warming is the kind of crap that gives climate science a bad name. There is no justification for your claim. Current water temps are well within the normal range of variability.

[rjv]

not sure about water temps but the temperatures of the latitudes are just as much a contributing factor.

[RandomGuy]

Your claim that gulf water temps are due to global warming is the kind of crap that gives climate science a bad name. There is no justification for your claim. Current water temps are well within the normal range of variability.

Be happy to admit I was wrong, I just remember reading something, but couldn't find it later. Feel free to provide some actual data I can see. Most of what I see on a quick search is too technical for casual reading/summation.

I do know that overall oceanic heat content has been going up, and up, and up.

Be happy to flesh that out in great detail if you want, and that heat is most definitely due to global warming, whether you want to quibble about terminology or not.

[RandomGuy]

Tracks now have it rolling up Florida, and rolling along the coast.

https://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/at201711_5day.gif

[boutons_deux]

Will grifter evangelists spew that Mar-a-Lago is destroyed because God simply wants to test the strength of their God-chosen hero?

[RandomGuy]

I'm in central florida like 30 miles north of tampa. people already going nuts at the grocery store with the water and such.

Best to buy a couple of large water containers like you find at academy or some camping store. Fill up with tap water at the last minute.
I have one 7 gallon container for a family of four, and might get a second. 1/2 gallon a day per adult (3, given the size of my 1st) and a bit less than that for the 11 year old. 3 day supply, if there is nothing in the taps.

Back up is having the ability to boil the water (camp stove or gas grill), or really weak beer like bud light or michelob ultra. Forget the bullshit about alcohol being a diuretic. It is, but consider what the stuff is dissolved in (hint: the alcohol is dissolved in something that rhymes with "mah-ter".)

A few chlorine tablets or camping water purification systems works wonders too.

Much easier than buying bottled water.

If you don't need the water afterwards, I just use it to flush the toilets after the worst is over.

[RandomGuy]

Not that I have given the issue much thought... heh.

Our city didn't have clean water for a week or so after the flooding, if I remember correctly.

[RandomGuy]

Will grifter evangelists spew that Mar-a-Lago is destroyed because God simply wants to test the strength of their God-chosen hero?

I hope that building is wiped off the map. It would save the taxpayers a lot of money.

[Mark Celibate]

I'm in central florida like 30 miles north of tampa. people already going nuts at the grocery store with the water and such.

you're actually in a /comfy/ spot then. The storm will have calmed down a little once it gets to your area, but I would make sure you have a full tank of gas and enough nonperishables for atleast a week without power. That's about what I did for Harvey but I was woefully underprepared with generators and shit like that. Make sure to have booze to enjoy the hurricane time off :toast

[rjv]

Be happy to admit I was wrong, I just remember reading something, but couldn't find it later. Feel free to provide some actual data I can see. Most of what I see on a quick search is too technical for casual reading/summation.

I do know that overall oceanic heat content has been going up, and up, and up.

Be happy to flesh that out in great detail if you want, and that heat is most definitely due to global warming, whether you want to quibble about terminology or not. i'm curious about the jet streams and the planetary waves. more static jet streams have yielded some rather catastrophic climate events over the past few years.

[boutons_deux]

i'm curious about the jet streams

Jetstream position, movement is shown only rarely on nightly local weather news. It's one of the best macro-weather indicators.

[rjv]

Jetstream position, movement is shown only rarely on nightly local weather news. It's one of the best macro-weather indicators. I should have been more clear in my post. I have read some articles on how the planetary waves (Rossby waves) have been impacted by greenhouse gases because the effects of the gases have been to cause the waves to linger longer over certain regions. In other words, we are seeing more "stuck" patterns like the one we saw with Harvey. This is the same effect that was responsible for a Siberian drought and floods in Pakistan in the summer of 2010.

[boutons_deux]

Trash has unarguably declined in articulation, vocab, phrasing, idea density over the past several years, an indication that his brain is fucked and unfuckable.

eg:

https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/658832379130200064/YUk99vQB_normal.jpgKyle Griffin
✔@kylegriffin1 (https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1)

Trump on Hurricane Irma:

"It looks like it could be something that will be not good.

Believe me.

Not good."

(CNN)
10:35 AM - Sep 6, 2017 (https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/905454381696503809)

video: http://occupydemocrats.com/2017/09/06/trump-just-gave-stunningly-inarticulate-warning-hurricane-irma/

[Thread]

I don't understand the buying of bottled water. Just tap it for a freakin' week.

Christ, we're such followers.

[RandomGuy]

I should have been more clear in my post. I have read some articles on how the planetary waves (Rossby waves) have been impacted by greenhouse gases because the effects of the gases have been to cause the waves to linger longer over certain regions. In other words, we are seeing more "stuck" patterns like the one we saw with Harvey. This is the same effect that was responsible for a Siberian drought and floods in Pakistan in the summer of 2010.

That is the part that worries me most in terms of risk management: unintended consequences of unbalancing a very complex system that we don't fully understand.

I have always likened it to poking a hibernating bear with a stick, and hoping nothing happens, or walking into an advanced spaceship and randomly flipping switches and pressing buttons.

Sooner or later Something Bad is bound to happen.

We understand enough to know that is happening now, and the ultimate damage will not be known for centuries.

Humans are proven to be very bad at long term decision making from a physchological standpoint, and that is very clear when you start making arguments about risk mitigation and costs to people who haven't thought it through.

There is a certain element of tribalism to it as well. Humans are very resistant to fact that contradict their pre-existing views from someone they perceive as outside their group.

[RandomGuy]

Trash has unarguably declined in articulation, vocab, phrasing, idea density over the past several years, an indication that his brain is fucked and unfuckable.

eg:

https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/658832379130200064/YUk99vQB_normal.jpgKyle Griffin
✔@kylegriffin1 (https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1)

Trump on Hurricane Irma:

"It looks like it could be something that will be not good.

Believe me.

Not good."

(CNN)
10:35 AM - Sep 6, 2017 (https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/905454381696503809)

video: http://occupydemocrats.com/2017/09/06/trump-just-gave-stunningly-inarticulate-warning-hurricane-irma/


If only he could get our nuclear to tippy-top. That would free up a lot of resources for things. You know. Good things.

:rolleyes

[baseline bum]

you're actually in a /comfy/ spot then. The storm will have calmed down a little once it gets to your area, but I would make sure you have a full tank of gas and enough nonperishables for atleast a week without power. That's about what I did for Harvey but I was woefully underprepared with generators and shit like that. Make sure to have booze to enjoy the hurricane time off :toast

And a boomstick for the looters

[Mark Celibate]

I don't understand the buying of bottled water. Just tap it for a freakin' week.

Christ, we're such followers.


If the water gets contaminated, the city will shut it off

[boutons_deux]

some Irma video streams

http://digg.com/2017/hurricane-irma-live-video-streams

[baseline bum]

I don't understand the buying of bottled water. Just tap it for a freakin' week.

Christ, we're such followers.

Yeah man, I just filled a bunch of one liter bottles (I have tons of them I use when hiking/camping) plus a couple of empty milk jugs and pitchers with tap water when Harvey looked like it was coming here. And if those ran out I have a bunch of purification tabs I use when hiking.

Bottled water is such a fucking scam.

[hater]

Holy Shit no signs of life or communication from Barbuda

RIP looks like the entire island is back to prehistoric times

[Darth_Pelican]

I don't understand the buying of bottled water. Just tap it for a freakin' week.

Christ, we're such followers.

You likely won't have access to clean tap water for a week or longer after the storm.

[Thread]

You likely won't have access to clean tap water for a week or longer after the storm.

But, you can fill up now to your hearts content from the tap. It'll keep for at least month in any container. Use the empty plastic bottles you spent a $1 each on.

They're just throwing good money after bad because they saw others throwing good money after bad. Rush right out & queue up.

[DarrinS]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dA5qYrboTUE

[rmt]

I get 3 cases of 48 sixteen ounce bottled water for $2.99 each at Costco - can't beat the convenience and price - no need to mess with chlorine, worrying about sanitation, etc. Fill up the bathtubs for flushing (and we have a lake in the backyard). One cannot depend on tap water, electricity, supermarkets, etc for 2 weeks until things start to get back to normal. We have 2 small Honda generators (and 4 five gallon containers of gas) - one to run refrigerator and one to occasionally run the microwave. Ds has allergies so I bulk cook, freeze and microwave for him. Also handy is a chain-saw to clear the road of debris and a landline phone (although I complain about it) since cel phones might not work after a hurricane.

[RandomGuy]

I get 3 cases of 48 sixteen ounce bottled water for $2.99 each at Costco - can't beat the convenience and price - no need to mess with chlorine, worrying about sanitation, etc. Fill up the bathtubs for flushing (and we have a lake in the backyard). One cannot depend on tap water, electricity, supermarkets, etc for 2 weeks until things start to get back to normal. We have 2 small Honda generators (and 4 five gallon containers of gas) - one to run refrigerator and one to occasionally run the microwave. Ds has allergies so I bulk cook, freeze and microwave for him. Also handy is a chain-saw to clear the road of debris and a landline phone (although I complain about it) since cel phones might not work after a hurricane.

Yeah, may pull the trigger on a generator. I would prefer solar panels and a Tesla Powerwall, but can't get that spending past the Chief Wife Officer.

[hater]

Holy Shit no signs of life or communication from Barbuda

RIP looks like the entire island is back to prehistoric times

90% of Barbuda is completely obliterated according to Barbuda governor :cry :cry

RIP

[hater]

Some islands got wiped off the map :wow :wow

[rmt]

Probably lots of wooden shacks with zinc roofs :-( No preparation, no supplies like the gas tanks and water/food flowing into South Florida. Hopefully loss of life is low but where does one shelter from 185 mph winds? Even concrete buildings will blow away - maybe a cave in the side of a mountain?

[baseline bum]

I get 3 cases of 48 sixteen ounce bottled water for $2.99 each at Costco - can't beat the convenience and price - no need to mess with chlorine, worrying about sanitation, etc. Fill up the bathtubs for flushing (and we have a lake in the backyard). One cannot depend on tap water, electricity, supermarkets, etc for 2 weeks until things start to get back to normal. We have 2 small Honda generators (and 4 five gallon containers of gas) - one to run refrigerator and one to occasionally run the microwave. Ds has allergies so I bulk cook, freeze and microwave for him. Also handy is a chain-saw to clear the road of debris and a landline phone (although I complain about it) since cel phones might not work after a hurricane.

Are you gonna write your name and SSN on your left tit like they're saying for people who ride out the storm?

[DarrinS]

Are you gonna write your name and SSN on your left tit like they're saying for people who ride out the storm?

Send pics, tbh. :lol

[AaronY]

you're actually in a /comfy/ spot then. The storm will have calmed down a little once it gets to your area, but I would make sure you have a full tank of gas and enough nonperishables for atleast a week without power. That's about what I did for Harvey but I was woefully underprepared with generators and shit like that. Make sure to have booze to enjoy the hurricane time off :toast
I actually work out of home. I was a programmer for a while then went to telecommuting doing that but I was kind of shit at it so I got a search engine analyst job on the side (one of these people https://arstechnica.com/features/2017/04/the-secret-lives-of-google-raters/) then they promoted me at that Leapforce so I just quit the programming. Plus I do other work at home sidebjobs (thing called UHRS for Bing plus some customer service shite) So I'll still be able to work as long as internet is up. Kind of weirdly looking for forward to it thosince it is kind of weirdly fun going through a hurricane if you don't get any real damage obviously

[Thread]

I'd stay. I love my shit & don't want anyone to touch it.

[baseline bum]

I'd stay. I love my shit & don't want anyone to touch it.

We should all chip in and get you a plane ticket there son

[rmt]

Send pics, tbh. :lol

Not sure you'd want to see middle-aged ones that'd been through 4 years of nursing :-)

[DarrinS]

Not sure you'd want to see middle-aged ones that'd been through 4 years of nursing :-)

Lol, just a crude joke. I'm pushing 50 myself.

Hunker down and stay safe.

[RandomGuy]

Your claim that gulf water temps are due to global warming is the kind of crap that gives climate science a bad name. There is no justification for your claim. Current water temps are well within the normal range of variability.

Record floods. Record temperatures. Record fires. Record droughts. Record rain. Record storm strength.

Three 100-year floods, just in Texas in two years.

We have been told that global warming is real, and it will cause more extreme weather events, and that those extremes will be worse than they would be otherwise.

What I read said that the storm went over a very warm eddy that spun off a regular gyre, and that the oceans are measureably warmer than they were even 30 years ago.

What does your data say about that gyre? Is that warm water gyre warmer, or in the normal range?

When do we get to say "yup, this is what they said would happen"?

Even die hards like Wild Cobra have given up at this point.

[boutons_deux]

An AGW convo with KosmicParasite? :lol

[RandomGuy]

https://assets.rappler.com/8F6DD4E7EFC74F799D2CD0A1919A3D1C/img/362CDE56EEB941219932AB21C937E37F/afp-20170907-st-maarten-hurricane-irma-001_362CDE56EEB941219932AB21C937E37F.jpg

DESTROYED. An aerial photography taken and released by the Dutch department of Defense on September 6, 2017 shows the damage of Hurricane Irma in Philipsburg, on the Dutch Caribbean island of Sint Maarten. Gerben Van Es / Dutch Defense Ministry / AFP

[RandomGuy]

French authorities say at least 8 lives have been lost on the French side of St Martin.

Rutte said the priority now was to get the airport in the southern Dutch part of the island up and running again, to enable aid to be brought in.

After holding crisis talks with his top cabinet ministers, Rutte confirmed "there is no power" on St Martin and the island's "infrastructure is badly damaged."

French Interior Minister Gerard Collomb told reporters the airport on the French side will be reopened, allowing helicopters and aircraft to supply aid.

"The airport in the north has not been hit so much," Collomb said.

Images shot by a Dutch naval helicopter over St Martin revealed the extent of Irma's trail of destruction.

Huge containers normally stacked at a port had been tossed aside like matchsticks, roofs had been peeled off buildings, and debris was scattered everywhere.

Boats in a marina lay on their sides, half-submerged in water.

"The priority now is to bring emergency aid to the people... consisting of sending food and water to 40,000 people over the coming 5 days," Dutch Interior Minister Ronald Plasterk said.

He said Royal Dutch Marine patrol ship Zeeland was in the area while support ship the Pelikaan is expected to arrive in the area at 1500 GMT.

Both carry personnel and vehicles and have the capacity to make potable water.

The Netherlands is also sending a KDC-10 jet to the Caribbean as well as making a C-130 transporter available from the southern Caribbean island of Curacao, Plasterk said.

"Our highest priority is to restore public amenities," naval Lieutenant Egbert Stoel told Dutch television RTL from Curacao.

Rutte also called on Dutch citizens to donate to a special fund set up by the Dutch Red Cross.

He warned there were renewed fears about oncoming Hurricane Jose, expected to make landfall in the area over the weekend.

Jose, classified as a Category One hurricane on the 5-level Saffir-Simpson scale, is hurtling through the Caribbean and set to follow in Irma's path. – Rappler.com

[rjv]

That is the part that worries me most in terms of risk management: unintended consequences of unbalancing a very complex system that we don't fully understand.

I have always likened it to poking a hibernating bear with a stick, and hoping nothing happens, or walking into an advanced spaceship and randomly flipping switches and pressing buttons.

Sooner or later Something Bad is bound to happen.

We understand enough to know that is happening now, and the ultimate damage will not be known for centuries.

Humans are proven to be very bad at long term decision making from a physchological standpoint, and that is very clear when you start making arguments about risk mitigation and costs to people who haven't thought it through.

There is a certain element of tribalism to it as well. Humans are very resistant to fact that contradict their pre-existing views from someone they perceive as outside their group. indeed. Predictability in a complex system is the hallmark of meteorological forecasting. There are just so many variables and very sensitive variables at that. However, the random variations in our climate, I think, are no match for the variations which are not bred by chance and thus, it is the latter that most likely leads to this systemic vertigo you speak of. And I agree that there is a psychological element to this but also an element that is just one of greed and dishonesty on a far more sentient level.

[The Gemini Method]

Watching the streams shows Irma is not fucking around. Whilst I have prepared for the Big One on this side of the country, I can't imagine the constant fear hurricane season presents. Even if you're a denier ans whatnot, there has to be something in the back of your mind that allows you the chance that something is changing and furthermore impacting these storms. Either way, if you're in South Florida, be safe and don't let pride be the fall. If you can get out, do it.

[DarrinS]

Even if you're a denier and whatnot, there has to be something in the back of your mind that allows you the chance that something is changing and furthermore impacting these storms.

http://appinsys.com/globalwarming/ReutersAlarm_files/image014.jpg

[Mark Celibate]

Watching the streams shows Irma is not fucking around. Whilst I have prepared for the Big One on this side of the country, I can't imagine the constant fear hurricane season presents. Even if you're a denier ans whatnot, there has to be something in the back of your mind that allows you the chance that something is changing and furthermore impacting these storms. Either way, if you're in South Florida, be safe and don't let pride be the fall. If you can get out, do it.

I'm not a denier just not an outright believer yet. 2005 was just as bad and since then it's been relatively normal so that's not enough evidence for me. The only reason Harvey was bad was due to the fact that it stalled.

So far the only two reasons I feel somewhat inclined to believe in climate change are due to the media always shoving it down my throat and reading scientific papers that I'm too dumb to understand. But I don't see any evidence that hurricanes are getting stronger year by year

[Splits]

http://appinsys.com/globalwarming/ReutersAlarm_files/image014.jpg

:lmao

Now link me all the scientists who claim that climate change is causing more hurricanes

Fucking retard

[spurraider21]

So far the only two reasons I feel somewhat inclined to believe in climate change are due to the media always shoving it down my throat and reading scientific papers that I'm too dumb to understand. But I don't see any evidence that hurricanes are getting stronger year by year
Media is awful at reporting scientific throry/findings. Would stick to the papers. Abstracts and conclusions are easy enough to understand. If their math is flawed, it would be challenged and eventually retracted. It's not like we have a shortage of skeptics chomping at the bit at a chance to prove the damn elitists wrong.

The main place you see denial is on TV in the form of some guest on a Fox program and in congress, usually from that one party. The only major political party among developed nations with their firm stance on that issue.

[Mark Celibate]

Media is awful at reporting scientific throry/findings. Would stick to the papers. Abstracts and conclusions are easy enough to understand. If their math is flawed, it would be challenged and eventually retracted. It's not like we have a shortage of skeptics chomping at the bit at a chance to prove the damn elitists wrong.

The main place you see denial is on TV and in congress.

yeah that's what I was getting at. To kind of rephrase what I am saying, I trust the scientists like Manny that they know what they're doing as opposed to Alex Jones :lol

But the link between current weather events and climate change is too complicated for me to understand. My issue is the common layman saying "Oh c'mon, two bad hurricanes in a row! You know it's gotta be climate change, right?" pretending like they actually know what's going on and that they didn't get it straight from CNN

[hater]

yeah that's what I was getting at. To kind of rephrase what I am saying, I trust the scientists like Manny that they know what they're doing as opposed to Alex Jones :lol

But the link between current weather events and climate change is too complicated for me to understand. My issue is the common layman saying "Oh c'mon, two bad hurricanes in a row! You know it's gotta be climate change, right?" pretending like they actually know what's going on and that they didn't get it straight from CNN


Sure but what would be the motivation of the climate treehugging hoaxers to persist with this "hoax"?

I just cant find any possible motivation from them, so I usually side with the climate change scientists. Pkus I know lots of scientists and although many exagerate their conclusions, they never would go along with a hoax imo

[RandomGuy]

Even if you're a denier and whatnot, there has to be something in the back of your mind that allows you the chance that something is changing and furthermore impacting these storms.



http://appinsys.com/globalwarming/ReutersAlarm_files/image014.jpg

So, there were more landfalling storms in the eight years in the last bar than there were for more than 50% of the full decades of the last century?

Once again, your graph probably doesn't say what you think it does. About all you have done, yet again, is make a case for AGW.

(total for decade ended up at 19 hurricanes of cat 3 or higher hitting landfall for the decade, the 3rd highest total)

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/tropical-cyclones/201013

[hater]

905845846687789058

[RandomGuy]

Media is awful at reporting scientific throry/findings. Would stick to the papers. Abstracts and conclusions are easy enough to understand. If their math is flawed, it would be challenged and eventually retracted. It's not like we have a shortage of skeptics chomping at the bit at a chance to prove the damn elitists wrong.

The main place you see denial is on TV in the form of some guest on a Fox program and in congress, usually from that one party. The only major political party among developed nations with their firm stance on that issue.

Those 3% of scientific papers that deny climate change? A review found them all flawed


But what about those 3% of papers that reach contrary conclusions? Some skeptics have suggested that the authors of studies indicating that climate change is not real, not harmful, or not man-made are bravely standing up for the truth, like maverick thinkers of the past. (Galileo is often invoked, though his fellow scientists mostly agreed with his conclusions—it was church leaders who tried to suppress them.)
Not so, according to a review published in the journal of Theoretical and Applied Climatology. The researchers tried to replicate the results of those 3% of papers—a common way to test scientific studies—and found biased, faulty results.



“Every single one of those analyses had an error—in their assumptions, methodology, or analysis—that, when corrected, brought their results into line with the scientific consensus,” Hayhoe wrote in a Facebook post.


Broadly, there were three main errors in the papers denying climate change. Many had cherry-picked the results that conveniently supported their conclusion, while ignoring other context or records. Then there were some that applied inappropriate “curve-fitting”—in which they would step farther and farther away from data until the points matched the curve of their choosing.
And of course, sometimes the papers just ignored physics altogether. “In many cases, shortcomings are due to insufficient model evaluation, leading to results that are not universally valid but rather are an artifact of a particular experimental setup,” the authors write
https://qz.com/1069298/the-3-of-scientific-papers-that-deny-climate-change-are-all-flawed/



Among papers stating a position on anthropogenic global warming (AGW), 97 % endorse AGW. What is happening with the 2 % of papers that reject AGW? We examine a selection of papers rejecting AGW. An analytical tool has been developed to replicate and test the results and methods used in these studies; our replication reveals a number of methodological flaws, and a pattern of common mistakes emerges that is not visible when looking at single isolated cases. Thus, real-life scientific disputes in some cases can be resolved, and we can learn from mistakes. A common denominator seems to be missing contextual information or ignoring information that does not fit the conclusions, be it other relevant work or related geophysical data. In many cases, shortcomings are due to insufficient model evaluation, leading to results that are not universally valid but rather are an artifact of a particular experimental setup. Other typical weaknesses include false dichotomies, inappropriate statistical methods, or basing conclusions on misconceived or incomplete physics. We also argue that science is never settled and that both mainstream and contrarian papers must be subject to sustained scrutiny. The merit of replication is highlighted and we discuss how the quality of the scientific literature may benefit from replication.
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00704-015-1597-5


Cherry picking is one of the main ways that really dishonest hacks use, in my experience.

[RandomGuy]

yeah that's what I was getting at. To kind of rephrase what I am saying, I trust the scientists like Manny that they know what they're doing as opposed to Alex Jones :lol

But the link between current weather events and climate change is too complicated for me to understand. My issue is the common layman saying "Oh c'mon, two bad hurricanes in a row! You know it's gotta be climate change, right?" pretending like they actually know what's going on and that they didn't get it straight from CNN

That is the hard part about the science, as CosmicCowboy rightly pointed out.

At some point though, how many record setting events do we need in a row to say "yeah, some shit is happening?"

As I have always stated, we are living in the test tube.

Denying anything is changing has gotten harder and harder for the paid hacks to do, so they have fallen back on "it isn't humans", without saying what is causing the data trends we are seeing. This then gets parroted by the people who think there is some scientist conspiracy.

If it isn't human-caused, what *is* it?

This is where conspiratards tend to fail. Ask a 9-11 truther what they think *really* happened, and you get a lot of smileys, but no workable, testable theory.

Similar with a lot of people who say they are honest skeptics.

[boutons_deux]

"we are living in the test tube"

nope, living in the anthropocene's boiling water, it's already too late for the frogs to jump out.

The AGW trend has lasted decades now, with plenty of evidence that the slope is steepening.

[clambake]

a reporter was interviewing this woman with a 2 year old. the reporter asked why she hadn't left, and she said " we're just gonna stay here and see where it takes us"

[DarrinS]

So, there were more landfalling storms in the eight years in the last bar than there were for more than 50% of the full decades of the last century?

Once again, your graph probably doesn't say what you think it does. About all you have done, yet again, is make a case for AGW.

(total for decade ended up at 19 hurricanes of cat 3 or higher hitting landfall for the decade, the 3rd highest total)

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/tropical-cyclones/201013


And we had a 12 year hiatus after Katrina. (Shrugs)

[Quadzilla99]

905907640068222976

[DarrinS]

Humans might have caused these hurricanes after all.

Woke

https://twitchy.com/samj-3930/2017/09/07/stay-woke-viral-facebook-post-claiming-trump-admin-creates-hurricanes-gets-even-funnier/

[AaronY]

Isn't there already one shitty climate change thread?

[spurraider21]

Isn't there already one shitty climate change thread?
Well unfortunately Darrin is able to post across several threads

[Chucho]

Well unfortunately Darrin is able to post across several threads
:lol

[Spurminator]

"I dunno, I don't really care about climate change or think it's a big deal. (Shrug)"

Later that day...

"LOL check out this Twitchy article making fun of climate alarmists"

[AaronY]

Kinda getting scared of this one been through some other hurricanes living down here and they weren't too bad but really scared of being without power for several days. Was kind of looking forward to it when I didn't think it might run right over the top of me

[boutons_deux]

...

[DarrinS]

"I dunno, I don't really care about climate change or think it's a big deal. (Shrug)"

Later that day...

"LOL check out this Twitchy article making fun of climate alarmists"


No. It was making fun of a retard who thinks the govt is manufacturing hurricanes.

[DarrinS]

Just a busy season after 12 uneventful ones, tbh.

[AaronY]

Just a busy season after 12 uneventful ones, tbh.

Thats a good point. You should make it another 450x

[DarrinS]

Thats a good point. You should make it another 450x

At least we have early warning. The Galveston hurricane of 1900 killed thousands.

[AaronY]

Another good point. Racking em up.

[AaronY]

Mainly that pic of Hurricane Andrew going around of it being so small compared to this one got me terrified

[boutons_deux]

https://www.buzzfeed.com/gabrielsanchez/devastating-pictures-from-irmas-impact-on-the-caribbean?utm_term=.staOd2xbg#.jpZRwMvGp

[AaronY]

https://www.buzzfeed.com/gabrielsanchez/devastating-pictures-from-irmas-impact-on-the-caribbean?utm_term=.staOd2xbg#.jpZRwMvGp
Those fucking cars. Jesus Christ.

[UNT Eagles 2016]

Irma continues to rapidly weaken. May be a tropical wave at landfall

[Splits]

Hurricane Irma: how the storm got so big, intense, and scary


“You need a perfect recipe to get a storm like Irma.”

Updated by Brian Resnick (https://www.vox.com/authors/brian-resnick)@B_resnick (http://www.twitter.com/B_resnick)[email protected] Sep 7, 2017, 6:30pm EDT


https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/gja1iGPnCNaWsrzPF1flt0glVFw=/0x0:985x1286/1200x800/filters:focal(359x601:515x757)/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/56569433/irma.a2017249.1745.1km.0.jpgNASA Goddard MODIS Rapid Response Team

Hurricane Irma is an absolute monster of a storm (https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2017/9/5/16254872/hurricane-irma-2017-caribbean-florida-keys-puerto-rico-wind-speed-record). Its powerful winds have kept it a Category 5 (the highest on the Saffir-Simpson wind scale) for more than two days, which makes it one of the most powerful and longest lasting Category 5 storms (https://webcms.colostate.edu/tropical/media/sites/111/2017/09/Hurricane-Irma-Records.pdf) on record. And with two and a half days until a possible Florida landfall, it doesn’t seem to be losing steam.

As of Thursday afternoon, Irma was blowing (https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2017/9/7/16264390/photos-hurricane-irma-destruction) sustained 175 mph winds. “That’s similar to a tornado, except this tornado is 80 miles wide,” says Jeff Weber, a meteorologist with the National Center for Atmospheric Research.

Much of South Florida is now under a hurricane (https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2017/9/5/16254872/hurricane-irma-2017-caribbean-florida-keys-puerto-rico-wind-speed-record) and storm-surge watch. That means the National Hurricane Center believes dangerous winds, rains, and coastal flooding could arrive by Sunday. The greatest danger in a hurricane is usually flooding from storm surge. The hurricane center predicts 5 to 10 feet of surge will be from the Jupiter Inlet (just north of West Palm Beach) on the Atlantic Ocean, through the Florida Keys in the Gulf — an area that spans hundreds of miles. And impacts in Georgia and Carolina are also a possibility.

Irma is expected to maintain a Category 4 or 5 status for the remainder of its path toward Florida, through Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas.

We’re witnessing a truly extreme event. But as Weber and Phil Klotzbach, an atmospheric scientist at Colorado State University, explain, this is the exact time of year you’d expect the most powerful storms to form. It’s also not that surprising to see multiple tropical cyclones forming at once, as we’re seeing with Hurricanes Jose and Katia, which could also make landfall this weekend.

But for a monster like Irma, all the conditions — that are actually quite common for this time of year — have lined up. “You need a perfect recipe to get a storm like Irma,” Klotzbach says.
And we have it.

Why Irma got so big, intense, and scary

https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/unqDoSYVXSQCX9wyRIjVs1nod3U=/1200x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/9198955/GettyImages_843719830.jpgAn aerial photograph hows the damage of Hurricane Irma, on the Dutch Caribbean island of Sint Maarten GERBEN VAN ES/AFP/Getty Images

The strength of a hurricane is determined by three main factors: water temperature, wind shear, and moisture in the atmosphere. Warmer water and atmospheric moisture give the system energy. A low wind shear — i.e., sharp changes in wind directions as you go higher and higher in the atmosphere — keeps a hurricane from dissipating.

All these conditions have been ideal for Irma. As for the wind shear, Klotzbach says there’s “almost zero.” That’s just bad luck. “If you plot shear averages over the Atlantic over the past 30 years, there’s really no trend,” he says.

The Atlantic, meanwhile, reaches its hottest temperatures for the year in September (that’s why the peak of hurricane season is September 10). Klotzbach says the Atlantic is a degree or two Fahrenheit hotter than it usually is this time of year, which is providing Irma with some extra fuel. (The surface area of water in the Atlantic topping 82.4 degrees in September has been growing slightly since the 1970s (http://www.catinsight.co.uk/single-post/2017/09/07/Hurricane-Irma-thoughts-ahead-of-a-possible-Florida-landfall), which also could contribute to Irma’s strength.)

Irma reached a top speed of 185 mph Tuesday, and maintained those winds for 37 hours. That’s “close to the maximum intensity you’d ever get out of an Atlantic hurricane for that long,” Klotzbach says.

What’s more, Irma only is going to encounter more hot water — approaching 90 degrees Fahrenheit — as it moves toward Florida. (The Gulf of Mexico, on the other hand, has been about 4 degrees above normal (http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/08/28/546748502/how-a-warmer-climate-helped-shape-harvey), which helped Harvey intensify so rapidly.) And, according to Klotzbach, “the atmosphere is more saturated than normal too.” So there’s plenty of energy and moisture to keep this system spinning quickly.
https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/M04HHTpjXXgp3S1geqRkzd_-B94=/1200x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/9196657/irma_crw_2017248.png

Irma has a runway of warm water all the way to Florida. NASA / NOAAAlso fortuitous for Irma: It hasn’t made much direct contact with land. Yes, it devastated several islands (https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2017/9/7/16264390/photos-hurricane-irma-destruction) in the Eastern Caribbean. But small islands “don’t create dry air to entrain into the system to slow it down,” Weber said. Irma’s eye has also traveled just North of islands like Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, which has allowed it to keep up its momentum. “It’s a perfect path [meteorologically speaking] through the islands, and riding north of Hispaniola and north of Cuba the whole way,” he adds. Irma is following a runway of hot water all the way to Florida.

There are currently three hurricanes in the Atlantic and Gulf. Is that normal?
Within the past two days, two other storms — Katia and Jose — have achieved hurricane status in the Atlantic and Gulf. And what are we to make of the fact that three hurricanes are currently active at the same time?

This also isn’t unprecedented. It happens on average once every 10 years, Klotzbach explains. “In the satellite era, since 1966, this has happened in: 1967, 1980, 1995, 1998, 2010 and now in 2017.” So it’s fairly common, especially near the peak of the season, like we are in now.


Is climate change to blame for Irma’s strength?
This is always a tricky question when it comes to hurricanes. These storms are powerful, but they’re not necessarily much more powerful than storms we’ve seen in the past. Also, meteorologists have only been tracking hurricanes by satellite since the 1970s. Hurricanes have ravaged the Atlantic coast for hundreds of thousands of years. Scientists are still figuring out what, exactly, is “normal.”

But climate change does likely play a role, albeit a subtle one.

Vox’s Dave Roberts explained it best in a piece about (https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/8/28/16213268/harvey-climate-change) Hurricane Harvey:
Say I turned up Earth’s gravity by 1 percent. More people around the world would trip and fall. Does it make sense to say, of a particular person tripping and falling, that the increase in gravity (“gravity change”) caused it to happen? No. Does it make sense to say that gravity cause it to happen? No. …
Increased gravity is a causal condition in every fall, but it is not the primary causal agent in any one fall. Similarly, increased heat energy is a causal condition in every storm (not just the bad ones) — every storm forms and travels in the same global climate — but it is not the primary causal agent in any storm.



Florida has been hit by intense hurricanes before. But the damage today can be greater because there are more people and fewer natural protections.
Climate change science predicts that in the future, hurricanes will intensify. There will be simply more energy available for them to form, and more moisture in the air to sustain them. Both Klotzbach and Weber agree the current consensus on whether hurricanes today are more intense due to climate change is messy.

But we don’t need the threat of climate change to know that hurricanes are a dangerous threat to South Florida and the surrounding area. We know this because hurricanes have ravaged Miami before. (If anything, it’s weird that the United States hasn’t more hurricanes in the past 10 years, as the Washington Post explains (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/09/07/the-science-behind-the-u-s-s-strange-hurricane-drought-and-its-sudden-end/?utm_term=.6e453bb99e39).)

In the 1940s and into the ’50s, “South Florida was hit by five Category 4 or 5 hurricanes in six years,” Klotzbach says. “Just what’s happened in the past should be scary enough to realize this stuff can be bad.”

But yet the South Florida coastline has only grown denser (http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/article68048512.html), reaching a population of 6 million for the first time in 2016.

In 1926, Miami was hit with a storm that was likely a Category 4, and it devastated the young city, killing 375. If that same storm struck today, Brad Plumer explains (https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/07/climate/florida-hurricane-irma-damage.html?_r=0) at the New York Times, it “would inflict more than $200 billion in damage.” That’s an amount greater than Hurricane Katrina. Hurricane Andrew, the worst storm in the state’s history, caused $26.5 billion in damage. Today, it “would be far more catastrophic,” Plumer writes.


South Florida's rapid development has put way more infrastructure & people in harm's way than there used to be https://t.co/voPBHQ89hx #Irma (https://twitter.com/hashtag/Irma?src=hash)pic.twitter.com/tjBeguCrrD (https://t.co/tjBeguCrrD)
— Brian L Kahn (@blkahn) September 7, 2017 (https://twitter.com/blkahn/status/905772774542770176)

What makes hurricanes like Irma more dangerous than ever before is not climate change. It’s hubris.

“I would maintain that the actions humans have done to the land, such as paving roads and blocking natural estuaries, taking away sand barriers, and things of that nature, is a far greater impact than anything we’ve done in the warming world,” Klotzbach says. “If Miami was not completely paved and not much forethought was put into drainage when they built the city 100 years ago, this would not be as bad of a situation.”


https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2017/9/7/16267826/hurricane-irma-2017-florida-miami-dade-broward-keys-georgia-carolina-meteorology

[hater]

Good I hope its a category 2 by tomorrow

[boutons_deux]

"What makes hurricanes like Irma more dangerous than ever before is not climate change. It’s hubris."

hubris? :lol

actually, it's greed of the oligarchy, its property development division.

Even if politicians had the intelligence :lol to make their regions less vulnerable to severe weather, they'd be corrupted or replaced by bought politicians who would let the property developers run wild, which is the story in, eg, Houston, and how BigOil (and Army Corps of Engineers) has destroyed in less than a century the protective value of Mississippi delta of southern Louisiana, built over 10Ks of years.

Welcome to the suicidal anthropocene.

and then there's this little taxpayer accounting problem:

FEMA’s flood insurance program is drowning because of climate change

https://qz.com/1064109/is-the-national-flood-insurance-program-running-out-of-money/

[boutons_deux]

Dallas Rep. Hensarling pushing for overhaul of federal flood insurance program

Dallas Rep. Jeb Hensarling, the Republican chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, is pushing for the House to approve in September a full five year re-authorization of the National Flood Insurance Program, a bill his committee passed that includes measures to bring the NFIP closer to solvency.

many observers expect Congress to instead pass a short-term measure and delay political fights over how to fix the program.

Friendswood Rep. Randy Weber, a Republican, said he’s concerned about any modifications that would lead to

higher flood insurance rates :lol no shit!

a drop in property values. :lol no shit!

Meanwhile, the NFIP is likely to face billions in claims from those affected by the storm, with the potential to bump up against its $30.4 billion debt limit.

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/harvey/2017/08/29/dallas-rep-hensarling-pushing-overhaul-overburdened-flood-insurance-program

iow, people, esp WEALTHY people in McMansions and expensive beach- and river-front mansions, in any flood-prone regions, are TAKERS, mooching on taxpayers to subsidize their flood insurance and cover their flood losses.

[RandomGuy]

Well unfortunately Darrin is able to post across several threads

Ouch.

[RandomGuy]

At least we have early warning. The Galveston hurricane of 1900 killed thousands.


Vox’s Dave Roberts explained it best in a piece about Hurricane Harvey:
Say I turned up Earth’s gravity by 1 percent. More people around the world would trip and fall. Does it make sense to say, of a particular person tripping and falling, that the increase in gravity (“gravity change”) caused it to happen? No. Does it make sense to say that gravity cause it to happen? No. …
Increased gravity is a causal condition in every fall, but it is not the primary causal agent in any one fall. Similarly, increased heat energy is a causal condition in every storm (not just the bad ones) — every storm forms and travels in the same global climate — but it is not the primary causal agent in any storm.

Best way to put it.

[RandomGuy]

https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2017/9/7/16267826/hurricane-irma-2017-florida-miami-dade-broward-keys-georgia-carolina-meteorology

Thanks man. That was a really good article, on point.

[hater]

Wtf is it true Irmas eye ihas doubled its size today??

Its like a worm opening its mouth before swallowing some food

[DarrinS]

Thanks man. That was a really good article, on point.

Indeed




There are currently three hurricanes in the Atlantic and Gulf. Is that normal?
Within the past two days, two other storms — Katia and Jose — have achieved hurricane status in the Atlantic and Gulf. And what are we to make of the fact that three hurricanes are currently active at the same time?

This also isn’t unprecedented. It happens on average once every 10 years, Klotzbach explains. “In the satellite era, since 1966, this has happened in: 1967, 1980, 1995, 1998, 2010 and now in 2017.” So it’s fairly common, especially near the peak of the season, like we are in now.


Is climate change to blame for Irma’s strength?
This is always a tricky question when it comes to hurricanes. These storms are powerful, but they’re not necessarily much more powerful than storms we’ve seen in the past. Also, meteorologists have only been tracking hurricanes by satellite since the 1970s. Hurricanes have ravaged the Atlantic coast for hundreds of thousands of years. Scientists are still figuring out what, exactly, is “normal.”

[RandomGuy]

https://www.buzzfeed.com/gabrielsanchez/devastating-pictures-from-irmas-impact-on-the-caribbean?utm_term=.staOd2xbg#.jpZRwMvGp

Googley boogely.

Florida is going to get clobbered. We may be looking at a trillion dollar disaster year. $200bn for Harvey easy. Gov says 180bn, but these estimates always come out low.

Figure this is going to be a lot larger.

Insurance industry is pretty well capitalized, so this is what is called an "earnings event" that will dig into yearly earnings, but not completely overwhelm the system, and require companies to dig into capital reserves.

If that were to happen, expect markets to take some solid hits as hundreds of billions of dollars of investments would need to be sold off to raise cash for claims. If we get any other hits this year, that may still happen.

[RandomGuy]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT11/refresh/AL112017_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind+png/145723_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

[boutons_deux]

"increased heat energy is a causal condition in every storm (not just the bad ones) — every storm forms and travels in the same global climate — but it is not the primary causal agent in any storm."

let's see,

what if ocean temps were at their historical average or below (earth should be in a cooling period now), a storm might, even probably would, fail to grow into a tropical storm or hurricane, at all? aborted due to lack of water heat.

now what if ocean temps, energy were well above historical avg? then historically uneventful storms would have much more energy available for growing into a hurricane.

[RandomGuy]

"increased heat energy is a causal condition in every storm (not just the bad ones) — every storm forms and travels in the same global climate — but it is not the primary causal agent in any storm."

let's see,

what if ocean temps were at their historical average or below (earth should be in a cooling period now), a storm might, even probably would, fail to grow into a tropical storm or hurricane, at all? aborted due to lack of water heat.

now what if ocean temps, energy were well above historical avg? then historically uneventful storms would have much more energy available for growing into a hurricane.



The amount of heat energy getting soaked into the oceans is mind boggling. The number of zeros involved makes my head spin.

[boutons_deux]

The amount of heat energy getting soaked into the oceans is mind boggling. The number of zeros involved makes my head spin.

exactly, so when the mass of the ocean is only 1C or 2C above average, it's gigajoules of energy.

"Quantitative experiments show that 4.18 Joules of heat energy are required to raise the temperature of 1g of water by 1°C."

https://serc.carleton.edu/eslabs/hurricanes/8a.html

What whore propagandists for BigCarbon refuse to admit is that the earth's operations are delicately balanced.

whatever, we frogs are boiled, IT'S OVA.

[CosmicCowboy]

Look like Tampa's luck has finally run out. Combination of wind and storm surge in the bay is going to be a bitch.

[pgardn]

The amount of heat energy getting soaked into the oceans is mind boggling. The number of zeros involved makes my head spin.

Use scientific notation or change the energy units to Tera mega Tera Joules.

And... it still won't help.
How big a room will 10 million pennies fill? I can do the math but can't even make a good guess off the top of my head

[pgardn]

exactly, so when the mass of the ocean is only 1C or 2C above average, it's gigajoules of energy.

"Quantitative experiments show that 4.18 Joules of heat energy are required to raise the temperature of 1g of water by 1°C."

https://serc.carleton.edu/eslabs/hurricanes/8a.html

What whoe propagandists for BigCarbon refuse to admit is that the earth's operations are delicately balanced.

whatever, we frogs are boiled, IT'S OVA.




So how much energy does it take to raise 1 g of ice 1 degree?

[Drachen]

Look like Tampa's luck has finally run out. Combination of wind and storm surge in the bay is going to be a bitch.

I have family who live in Sarasota who decided to stay because it was supposed to be well East of them. Now it's too late to leave. No gas and parking lot highways.

[CosmicCowboy]

I have family who live in Sarasota who decided to stay because it was supposed to be well East of them. Now it's too late to leave. No gas and parking lot highways.
Damn that sucks. This bitch didnt lose the eyewall bouncing off cuba and the track has shifted west.could ramp back up to a cat 5 as it slides up the coast with a massive storm surge.

[SnakeBoy]

I have family who live in Sarasota who decided to stay because it was supposed to be well East of them. Now it's too late to leave. No gas and parking lot highways.

They just issued a mandatory evacuation. How are people supposed to get out?

Hope they get to one of the shelters

906576759734366208

[baseline bum]

I have family who live in Sarasota who decided to stay because it was supposed to be well East of them. Now it's too late to leave. No gas and parking lot highways.

Well that was a colossal mistake. Though I think the media does their viewers a major disservice when they draw that line and say this is where the hurricane is going instead of just showing the cone indicating where the eye is likely to be. AFAIK west coast Florida has been in that cone for days now and it's only this morning the the models have converged enough to really slim that cone down to only the west half of the state when considering the lower part of Florida.

[baseline bum]

Storm surge hitting the keys now


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NQ-N3kx0PZE

[rmt]

I have family who live in Sarasota who decided to stay because it was supposed to be well East of them. Now it's too late to leave. No gas and parking lot highways.

Part of the problem is that people from South Florida have fled north - making the traffic worse. 2 families I know fled to Orlando - 1 to Gainesville. My advice for gas is to try somewhere like Costco - they keep the tankers coming - not like the local gas station that orders only 1 tanker a day and runs out. Leave the coast and find a shelter - there's no point in trying to outrun a hurricane that you don't know where it'll hit and risk getting stranded. Iirc, the outer walls of houses up north don't have to be concrete block - like they are down here in South Florida.

[Will Hunting]

The keys are absolutely fucked. That women in that video still there with her pets is a retard.

[baseline bum]

The keys are absolutely fucked. That women in that video still there with her pets is a retard.

Yeah you gotta be a special brand of stupid to stick around in the Keys when even Jeff Piotrowski won't go there.

[baseline bum]

906278000504836098

[Will Hunting]

The :cry not everyone has a car :cry maybe applies for people in inner city Miami but if you can't afford a car then don't live in the fucking keys.

[pgardn]

The :cry not everyone has a car :cry applies for people in inner city Miami but if you can't afford a car then don't live in the fucking keys.

This same idea goes for many things about living in these areas. If you build and live in these places, be an ant. The mound will get destroyed and you will have to rebuild. If you can't handle this, go inland. This is why the bait stands on the Texas coast have really good piling structure but an easy to build, easy to fix upper structure. These people know their business is subject to all kinds of weather. So they build cheaply and repair and rebuild cheaply.

[DMC]

Wtf is it true Irmas eye ihas doubled its size today??

Its like a worm opening its mouth before swallowing some food

Basically anything entering Miami Dade county is getting it's hole widened considerably.

[florige]

Yeah you gotta be a special brand of stupid to stick around in the Keys when even Jeff Piotrowski won't go there.



I feel for those poor dogs. Its not their fault their owner isn't right in the head. They are literally right on the water, that whole place will probably be destroyed.

[Splits]

906712903868469249

Not a joke

[Drachen]

They just issued a mandatory evacuation. How are people supposed to get out?

Hope they get to one of the shelters

906576759734366208

"Luckily" they are in Zone D and only A is a mandatory evac

[Drachen]

906712903868469249

Not a joke

I would say that if be excited for them to shoot, but it would definitely hit people other than the shooters so I'm not down with that.

[DarrinS]

I'm watching some meteorologist in Naples, and it looks very mild, tbh.

[Will Hunting]

906712903868469249

Not a joke
:lmao

[monosylab1k]

906712903868469249

Not a joke

:lmao

This is peak "Florida Man"

[Mark Celibate]

Kinda getting scared of this one been through some other hurricanes living down here and they weren't too bad but really scared of being without power for several days. Was kind of looking forward to it when I didn't think it might run right over the top of me

meh...power going out isnt' a big deal as long as you're prepared. THe looters are the real headache especially if you live around a lot of negroes you need to be armed

(pic related)

https://img.4plebs.org/boards/pol/image/1504/97/1504979813331.png

[rmt]

meh...power going out isnt' a big deal as long as you're prepared. THe looters are the real headache especially if you live around a lot of negroes you need to be armed

(pic related)

https://img.4plebs.org/boards/pol/image/1504/97/1504979813331.png
Generator up and running. Refrigerator plugged in after power went out 4-5 hours ago. Power outage means no ac - after Andrew was very HOT for 2 weeks before power came back on. Should not be so long this time Power trucks from other states were already here in S FL BEFORE winds came.

[rmt]

School out until probably end of the week to empty shelters and allow those wh evacuated to return home My cherry tree is split in two - half on the ground. Cant see my mango tree from this sliding door. Still pretty gusty but dh wanted to get generator going while there was still light

[rmt]

neighbor has a whole house generator that kicked in soon after power went. thing is so LOUD can't imagine how much gas he needs to run that thing i'll be wishing i had that tomorrow when it gets hot dh set up portable ac venting out the sliding glass door but can cool only one room

[rmt]

neighbor is using propane but generator is not fully working - whatever that means

[DarrinS]

Dud

[baseline bum]

Dud

The people of Barbuda, Turks Caicos, Sint Maarten, Cuba, and the Florida Keys would probably take issue with that assessment.

[DarrinS]

The people of Barbuda, Turks Caicos, Sint Maarten, Cuba, and the Florida Keys would probably take issue with that assessment.

Sure, but it's lost a lot of energy since then.

[DarrinS]

Don't get me wrong -- it was smart to evaluate, but probably unnecessary,

[baseline bum]

Don't get me wrong -- it was smart to evaluate, but probably unnecessary,

No one has a crystal ball to see it would lose steam so quickly after hitting the Keys. Back when people started evacuating it was a 185 mph megastorm raping the entire Caribbean. So I wouldn't second guess evacuating for even a second.

[rmt]

it's huge we're still having gusts i wouldnt go outside

[ElNono]

Sandy >>>> Irma...

[ElNono]

http://i4.mirror.co.uk/incoming/article5744820.ece/ALTERNATES/s615/Kent-Earthquake.jpg

[RandomGuy]

Use scientific notation or change the energy units to Tera mega Tera Joules.

And... it still won't help.
How big a room will 10 million pennies fill? I can do the math but can't even make a good guess off the top of my head

I actually did the math on that exact topic. 10 million pennies is only around a cubic meter or so.

Takes about a billion or so to fill up a large room, if memory serves.

(edit)

Being an OCD person when it comes to such questions:

10 million pennies is approximately a cube of 70 inches on each side. 2 meters by 2 meters by 2 meters.

Making a few simplifying assumptions (such as a penny being a cubic rectangle (.75 inches by .75 inches by .0598 inches)

70 inches on one side divided by .75 is 93.3333 pennies per side flat. A stack of pennies 70 inches tall will have 1170.6 pennies. (70/.0598)

93.3333.... squared is 8711 in one layer times 1170.6 layers is 10,196,952 total pennies.



A ten foot cubed room (120 inches) would have about 51 million pennies. average room only has 8 feet tall. Multiply that by 0.8 is about 40 million pennies.

Bam. Hooray spreadsheets.

[RandomGuy]

I would say that if be excited for them to shoot, but it would definitely hit people other than the shooters so I'm not down with that.

yeah, that is definitely a bad idea. Funny in a way, until one thinks about the consequences of 10,000 people randomly (HA) firing guns. I am all for randomness, until it hurts people.

[spurraider21]

Sandy >>>> Irma...
Nothingburger tbh

[boutons_deux]

https://images.dailykos.com/images/443544/story_image/09-01-mcfadden-KOS.png?1504211597

[RandomGuy]

Your claim that gulf water temps are due to global warming is the kind of crap that gives climate science a bad name. There is no justification for your claim. Current water temps are well within the normal range of variability.

You never did answer my question.

When is it appropriate to talk about this stuff?

https://images1.miaminewtimes.com/imager/u/745xauto/9657002/screen_shot_2017-09-08_at_8.10.33_am.png


When the president, who thinks this shit is a Chinese hoax, gets someone to head up the scientific agency studying it who also thinks it is all made up?

?????

[RandomGuy]

Record floods. Record temperatures. Record fires. Record droughts. Record rain. Record storm strength.

Three 100-year floods, just in Texas in two years.

We have been told that global warming is real, and it will cause more extreme weather events, and that those extremes will be worse than they would be otherwise.

What I read said that the storm went over a very warm eddy that spun off a regular gyre, and that the oceans are measureably warmer than they were even 30 years ago.

What does your data say about that gyre? Is that warm water gyre warmer, or in the normal range?

When do we get to say "yup, this is what they said would happen"?

Even die hards like Wild Cobra have given up at this point.

[RandomGuy]

https://media4.s-nbcnews.com/j/newscms/2017_37/2151701/170912-ponte-vedra-mc-1047_c22c050602fbdb575bbb1e418c980225.nbcnews-ux-600-480.jpg

[RandomGuy]

ccording to Phil Klotzbach, a noted atmospheric research scientist at Colorado State University:

When Irma reached Category 5 — the strongest there is — it stayed there for more than three days, the longest run since forecasters began using satellites to monitor tropical storms more than a half-century ago.
Irma blew 185-mph maximum sustained winds for 37 hours — the longest at that intensity anywhere on Earth since records started being kept.
Irma generated the most accumulated energy of any tropical cyclone in the Atlantic tropics on record.

But if there's one statistic that sums Irma up, it's this one: It generated enough accumulated cyclone energy — the total wind energy generated over a storm's lifetime — to meet the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's definition of an average full Atlantic hurricane season. By itself, it was more powerful than 18 of the 51 full hurricane seasons since 1966, according to Klotzbach's calculations (PDF).

[RandomGuy]

AS ONE OF the most powerful storms ever recorded bore down on the continental United States, with much of Florida under evacuation order, President Donald Trump was focused on a matter of grave urgency.

He gathered his cabinet at Camp David and said there was no time to waste. With Hurricane Irma set to potentially devastate huge swaths of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, now was the time, he said, to rush through massive … tax cuts.

Yes, that’s right. He wasn’t focused on getting massive aid to those most affected. He wasn’t focused on massive change to our energy and transit systems to lower greenhouse gas emissions so that Irma-like storms do not become a thrice-annual occurrence. His mind was on massive changes to the tax code — which, despite Trump’s claims that he is driven by a desire to give the middle class relief, would in fact hand corporations the biggest tax cut in decades and the very wealthy a sizable break as well.

Some have speculated that seeing the reality of climate change hit so close to home this summer — Houston underwater, Los Angeles licked by flames, and now southern states getting battered by Irma — might be some kind of wake-up call for climate change-denying Republicans.

As Trump’s address to his cabinet makes clear, however, Irma only makes him want to double down on his reckless economic agenda. Flanked by Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, he explained that they were going to discuss “dramatic tax cuts and tax reform. And I think now with what’s happened with the hurricane, I’m gonna ask for a speed up.”
Some have pointed out that this is a classic example of what I have called the “shock doctrine” — using disasters as cover to push through radical, pro-corporate policies. And it is a textbook case to be sure, especially because when Trump made his remarks, Irma was at the very height of its potential threat.

But Trump’s timing is even more revealing for what it shows about what’s really driving climate change denial on the right. It’s not a rejection of the science, but a rejection of the consequences of the science. Put simply, if the science is true, then the whole economic project that has dominated American power structures since Ronald Reagan was president is out the window, and the deniers know it.

Because if climate change is driving the kinds of catastrophes we are seeing right now — and it is — then it doesn’t just mean Trump has to apologize and admit he was wrong when he called it a Chinese hoax. It means that he also needs to junk his whole tax plan, because we’re going to need that tax money (and more) to pay for a rapid transition away from fossil fuels. And it also means he’s going to have to junk his deregulatory plan, because if we are going to change how we power our lives, we’re going to need all kinds of regulations to manage and enforce it. And, of course, this is not just about Trump — it’s about all the climate-denying Republican governors whose states are currently being pounded. All of them would have to junk an entire twisted worldview holding that the market is always right, regulation is always wrong, private is good and public is bad, and taxes that support public services are the worst of all.

Here is what we need to understand in a hurry: Climate change, especially at this late date, can only be dealt with through collective action that sharply curtails the behavior of corporations, such as Exxon Mobil and Goldman Sachs (both so lavishly represented at Trump’s cabinet meeting). Climate action demands investments in the public sphere — in new energy grids, public transit and light rail, and energy efficiency — on a scale not seen since World War II. And that can only happen by raising taxes on the wealthy and on corporations, the very people Trump is determined to shower with the most generous tax cuts, loopholes, and regulatory breaks.

In short, climate change detonates the ideological scaffolding on which contemporary conservatism rests. To admit that the climate crisis is real is to admit the end of their political and economic project. That’s why the right is in rebellion against the physical world (which is what prompted hundreds of thousands of scientists around the world to participate in the March for Science in April 2017, collectively defending a principle that really shouldn’t need defending: that knowing as much as possible about our world is a good thing). Yet there is a logical reason why science has become such a battle zone: because it is revealing again and again that pro-corporate business as usual leads to a species-threatening catastrophe.

And this isn’t only about the right — it’s also about the center. What mainstream liberals have been saying about climate change for decades is that we simply need to tweak the existing system here and there and everything will be fine. You can have Goldman Sachs capitalism plus solar panels. But at this stage, the challenge we are up against is much deeper than that.

Lowering our emissions quickly enough to avoid catastrophic warming requires confronting the centrality of ever-expanding consumption in how we measure economic progress. It requires remaking our economy in fundamental ways, including battling the systemic economic and racial inequalities that turn disasters like Harvey and Katrina into human catastrophes. In one sense, then, the members of Trump’s cabinet — with their desperate need to deny the reality of global warming, or belittle its implications — understand something that is fundamentally true: To avert climate chaos, we need to challenge the free-market fundamentalism that has conquered the world since the 1980s.

Trump and his fellow climate change-deniers (and climate change-minimizers) see this challenge to their worldview as a crisis so existential, they are unwilling to let the possibility enter their brains. That’s understandable. Global warming really does have radical progressive implications. If it’s real — and it manifestly is — then the oligarch class cannot continue to run riot without rules.

As the reality of climate disruption shows its menacing face, more and more people will come to understand its obvious political and economic implications. In the meantime, we need to stop waiting for disasters to “wake up” hardcore deniers. The dream they are in is just too damn good, too comfortable, and too profitable. But as Trump uses overlapping disasters of Harvey, Irma, North Korea, and whatever other hell he can exploit to smuggle through his cruel economic agenda, the rest of us should be wide awake to the reality that stopping him, and the worldview he represents, is a matter of humanity’s collective survival.

https://theintercept.com/2017/09/11/irma-donald-trump-tax-cuts-climate-change-republican-ideology-capitalism/

[rmt]

My electricity is back! Laundry and dishwasher running. Back to the eternal raking - you can't imagine how many leaves, branches and limbs are down.

[baseline bum]

My electricity is back! Laundry and dishwasher running. Back to the eternal raking - you can't imagine how many leaves, branches and limbs are down.

I can imagine if you're taking a hit from 120 mph winds. I had a ton of limbs down and branches and leaves all over from Harvey and we didn't even get the bad stuff (that was more Seguin and further east). We only had maybe three bad squalls and 60 mph winds at its worst. On the plus side Harvey brought us a massive cool front that has pretty much extended until today, so it was nice being outside to do all the cleanup.

[baseline bum]

OMG I just saw a video from a chopper over the Big Pine area of the Keys and the area looked horrific. Weather Channel reported an estimated 1/4 of the homes in the Keys are gone. They're going to find a lot of dead morons who rode that storm out down there.

[RandomGuy]

Death, destruction, 16 million people without power


http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/irmas-aftermath-death-destruction-16-million-people-without-power/ar-AArNWuG?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=1PRCDEFE

RIVIERA BEACH, Fla. — Virtually all the East Coast customers of the state's biggest provider of power should have power restored by Sunday, with western customers fully up and running a few days later, Florida Power & Light said Tuesday.



Company spokesman Rob Gould said a preliminary assessment of Hurricane Irma's devastation indicated damage to the electrical infrastructure was not as extensive as expected. That included the west coast, which took a direct hit from Irma.

What we're seeing is encouraging, particularly on the west coast where our main transmission structures have not come down," said Gould, whose company provides service to about half the state's 10.5 million power accounts. He said there would be a few exceptions where damage was particularly severe.

[Pavlov]

I can imagine if you're taking a hit from 120 mph winds. I had a ton of limbs down and branches and leaves all over from Harvey and we didn't even get the bad stuff (that was more Seguin and further east). We only had maybe three bad squalls and 60 mph winds at its worst. On the plus side Harvey brought us a massive cool front that has pretty much extended until today, so it was nice being outside to do all the cleanup.Yeah, branches and a section of fence down here and we got nothing compared to other areas.


OMG I just saw a video from a chopper over the Big Pine area of the Keys and the area looked horrific. Weather Channel reported an estimated 1/4 of the homes in the Keys are gone. They're going to find a lot of dead morons who rode that storm out down there.Yeah, a lot of people are downplaying Irma because it wasn't as bad as it could have been, but it did some serious damage all over Florida. Here's some pics around Jacksonville.

http://www.actionnewsjax.com/news/photos/photos-must-see-photos-of-irma-damage-in-jacksonville-area/607918247

Fortunately it's not super hot.