ducks
10-17-2005, 03:15 PM
Sleeper Forwards
Sleeper Forwards
by Court E. Mann - Associate Editor, Fanball.com
Monday, October 17, 2005
Now that we've filled your War Room with backcourt sleepers and busts, it's time to feed the post. You'll find your double-double monsters down low, guys who should help you compete in the rebounding, blocked shots, and field goal percentage categories. You'll also find a few sneaky swingmen who can fill the lane or step out and knock down the trey. Last year's edition of this feature gave you studs like Richard Jefferson, Drew Gooden, Al Harrington, and Chris Bosh, so do yourself a favor and don't hit the snooze button on this year's crop of sleeper forwards.
Dwight Howard, MagicHoward doesn't really qualify as a sleeper given how much success he had as a rookie, but he belongs on this list because I expect him to take a significant step forward into fantasy stardom. From the beginning, this beast has been compared to The Beast, Amare Stoudemire, and D-How's first-year digits—12 points, 10 boards, 1.7 blocks, one steal, 52 percent shooting—were remarkably similar if not better. Prepare to be frightened, because Amare, also a preps-to-pros power forward, went from 13.5 points to nearly 21 per night in his second season and also improved in the blocks, steals, and shooting cats. Howard is leaping off draft boards in the fourth round, so prepare to go after him if you want him on your roster.
Al Jefferson, CelticsAfter dispatching creaky veterans Antoine Walker and Gary Payton, the Celts are ready to unleash their solid 2004 draft class. Jefferson is the fantasy creme of that crop. He posted only 6.7 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 0.8 blocks on the season, numbers that don't exactly scream "draft me." But consider that those digits came in less than 15 minutes per game, and this season Jefferson will be looking at a minimum of 30 per night as the team's starting power forward. From what we've seen from Al in limited playing time, we know he can shoot the rock (53 percent last year), we know he can clean the glass (seven rebounds per game in January, in just 18 minutes per night), and we know he can swat shots. We got a solid glimpse of his future when he got the starting nod in the playoffs in game six against the Pacers thanks to a Walker suspension: Jefferson totaled 11 points, 14 boards, and two blocks in 29 minutes.
Josh Smith, HawksYou know J-Smoove can dunk. You know J-Smoove can swat. What you might not yet know is whether J-Smoove is anything but a highlight-reel, shot-blocking specialist. Well, if last year's finish is any indication, he can clean the glass, he can score, and he can pilfer the rock a bit. In April, when he finally got starter's minutes (38 per night), Smith posted 16 points, 9.5 rebounds, and nearly a steal per night. Couple that with his 2.2 blocks per night and you have yourself a five-cat stud. We're not ready to go that far quite yet, but he certainly qualifies as a sleeper.
Josh Howard, MavericksThere's a changing of the guard going on in Dallas. Long gone is Steve Nash and now departed is Michael Finley. This is Dirk Nowitzki's squad, and Mark Cuban is surrounding him with younger, more athletic pieces. We still haven't soured on swingman Marquis Daniels, but after watching last season, it's clear that Howard is more prepared and better equipped to make a consistent impact. Howard is a lock for minutes because he's the Mavs best defender—as his 1.5 steals per game last year attest—and we know he can score because he did just that for four years at Wake Forest. Howard went from 8.6 points, 5.5 rebounds, one steal, and 43 percent shooting in his first season to 12.6 points, 6.4 boards, 1.5 thefts, and 47 percent shooting in his second season, and he strikes us as fantasy hoops' version of a third-year wide receiver—ready to bust out.
Wally Szczerbiak, TimberwolvesThe T-Wolves have lost shot-mongers Sam Cassell and Latrell Sprewell from last year's squad (26 points per game) and added only Marko Jaric (8.5 points per game for his career) to the starting lineup. That leaves Wally as the clear No. 2 option on offense behind Kevin Garnett, who is as unselfish with the rock as any top scorer in the NBA. Even with the two chucker problem children last year, Wally bounced back from an injury-plagued 2003 season to post 15.5 points per game, and that was coming off the bench at only 32 minutes per night. As a starter, you'll find few forwards who can help as significantly in the shooting categories. Wally will average a three per night and shot 50 percent from the field and 86 percent from the line a year ago. With more minutes, he'll also hand in more acceptable rebounding totals.
Mike Dunleavy, WarriorsDunleavy has always had the talent, and now it appears he has the system. With Baron Davis now running the point, Dunleavy should thrive in a more open-court, up-tempo offense. In April, with Davis pushing the rock, Mike posted 15 points, six rebounds, three assists, one steal, 2.4 threes, 52 percent shooting from the field, and 83 percent shooting from the line. I'm no scientist, but that looks suspiciously like a seven-cat contributor. Two more magical words: Contract year.
Luol Deng, BullsDon't sleep on the seventh overall pick in last year's draft just because he played in only 61 games and took a back seat to teammate Ben Gordon. Deng showed flashes of fantasy talent throughout his rookie season, and has the kind of versatility fantasy owners covet. Without leading scorer Eddy Curry, the Bulls are desperate for someone to step forward offensively in the frontcourt, and Deng's inside-out game is qualified. In their last preseason contest, he led the team in shot attempts and finished with 13 points, six boards, three steals, and two dimes in 25 minutes. His role reminds me of Howard's contributions above, and his numbers (12 points and five rebounds per game) were far better as a rookie. If he makes a similar improvement between his first and second years—and the Bulls love his work ethic—look out.
Udonis Haslem, HeatFantasy owners seem to be discounting Haslem's rock-solid eight-cat campaign because Miami added some high-profile ballers this offseason. However, while Antoine Walker, Gary Payton, and Jason Williams camp out behind the three-point arc, someone has to do the dirty work. Haslem was the ultimate role player last season, both for the Heat and fantasy owners. His 11 points per game don't jump out at you, but his nine rebounds, 54 percent shooting from the field (fourth in the NBA), and 79 percent clip from the line certainly do. I don't expect those numbers to improve all that much, but don't doubt for a second that Udonis won't serve you well as an efficient shooter and monster rebounder.
Mike Sweetney, BullsIf Chicago does indeed get veteran power forward Antonio Davis back from the Knicks, you can quickly remove Sweetney from this list. The Bulls are just too deep. However, if that doesn't happen, this talent will suddenly have the opportunity that equates to sleeper success. The loss of Curry leaves the Bulls with just two realistic options for back-to-the-basket scoring from the post—Sweetney and Othella Harrington, and Harrington is best used as a reserve off the pine. If Mike can win a starting job, solid scoring, rebounding, and shooting will follow. In two preseason games in a Chicago uniform, an out-of-shape Sweetney has 30 points and 18 rebounds.
Sleeper Forwards
by Court E. Mann - Associate Editor, Fanball.com
Monday, October 17, 2005
Now that we've filled your War Room with backcourt sleepers and busts, it's time to feed the post. You'll find your double-double monsters down low, guys who should help you compete in the rebounding, blocked shots, and field goal percentage categories. You'll also find a few sneaky swingmen who can fill the lane or step out and knock down the trey. Last year's edition of this feature gave you studs like Richard Jefferson, Drew Gooden, Al Harrington, and Chris Bosh, so do yourself a favor and don't hit the snooze button on this year's crop of sleeper forwards.
Dwight Howard, MagicHoward doesn't really qualify as a sleeper given how much success he had as a rookie, but he belongs on this list because I expect him to take a significant step forward into fantasy stardom. From the beginning, this beast has been compared to The Beast, Amare Stoudemire, and D-How's first-year digits—12 points, 10 boards, 1.7 blocks, one steal, 52 percent shooting—were remarkably similar if not better. Prepare to be frightened, because Amare, also a preps-to-pros power forward, went from 13.5 points to nearly 21 per night in his second season and also improved in the blocks, steals, and shooting cats. Howard is leaping off draft boards in the fourth round, so prepare to go after him if you want him on your roster.
Al Jefferson, CelticsAfter dispatching creaky veterans Antoine Walker and Gary Payton, the Celts are ready to unleash their solid 2004 draft class. Jefferson is the fantasy creme of that crop. He posted only 6.7 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 0.8 blocks on the season, numbers that don't exactly scream "draft me." But consider that those digits came in less than 15 minutes per game, and this season Jefferson will be looking at a minimum of 30 per night as the team's starting power forward. From what we've seen from Al in limited playing time, we know he can shoot the rock (53 percent last year), we know he can clean the glass (seven rebounds per game in January, in just 18 minutes per night), and we know he can swat shots. We got a solid glimpse of his future when he got the starting nod in the playoffs in game six against the Pacers thanks to a Walker suspension: Jefferson totaled 11 points, 14 boards, and two blocks in 29 minutes.
Josh Smith, HawksYou know J-Smoove can dunk. You know J-Smoove can swat. What you might not yet know is whether J-Smoove is anything but a highlight-reel, shot-blocking specialist. Well, if last year's finish is any indication, he can clean the glass, he can score, and he can pilfer the rock a bit. In April, when he finally got starter's minutes (38 per night), Smith posted 16 points, 9.5 rebounds, and nearly a steal per night. Couple that with his 2.2 blocks per night and you have yourself a five-cat stud. We're not ready to go that far quite yet, but he certainly qualifies as a sleeper.
Josh Howard, MavericksThere's a changing of the guard going on in Dallas. Long gone is Steve Nash and now departed is Michael Finley. This is Dirk Nowitzki's squad, and Mark Cuban is surrounding him with younger, more athletic pieces. We still haven't soured on swingman Marquis Daniels, but after watching last season, it's clear that Howard is more prepared and better equipped to make a consistent impact. Howard is a lock for minutes because he's the Mavs best defender—as his 1.5 steals per game last year attest—and we know he can score because he did just that for four years at Wake Forest. Howard went from 8.6 points, 5.5 rebounds, one steal, and 43 percent shooting in his first season to 12.6 points, 6.4 boards, 1.5 thefts, and 47 percent shooting in his second season, and he strikes us as fantasy hoops' version of a third-year wide receiver—ready to bust out.
Wally Szczerbiak, TimberwolvesThe T-Wolves have lost shot-mongers Sam Cassell and Latrell Sprewell from last year's squad (26 points per game) and added only Marko Jaric (8.5 points per game for his career) to the starting lineup. That leaves Wally as the clear No. 2 option on offense behind Kevin Garnett, who is as unselfish with the rock as any top scorer in the NBA. Even with the two chucker problem children last year, Wally bounced back from an injury-plagued 2003 season to post 15.5 points per game, and that was coming off the bench at only 32 minutes per night. As a starter, you'll find few forwards who can help as significantly in the shooting categories. Wally will average a three per night and shot 50 percent from the field and 86 percent from the line a year ago. With more minutes, he'll also hand in more acceptable rebounding totals.
Mike Dunleavy, WarriorsDunleavy has always had the talent, and now it appears he has the system. With Baron Davis now running the point, Dunleavy should thrive in a more open-court, up-tempo offense. In April, with Davis pushing the rock, Mike posted 15 points, six rebounds, three assists, one steal, 2.4 threes, 52 percent shooting from the field, and 83 percent shooting from the line. I'm no scientist, but that looks suspiciously like a seven-cat contributor. Two more magical words: Contract year.
Luol Deng, BullsDon't sleep on the seventh overall pick in last year's draft just because he played in only 61 games and took a back seat to teammate Ben Gordon. Deng showed flashes of fantasy talent throughout his rookie season, and has the kind of versatility fantasy owners covet. Without leading scorer Eddy Curry, the Bulls are desperate for someone to step forward offensively in the frontcourt, and Deng's inside-out game is qualified. In their last preseason contest, he led the team in shot attempts and finished with 13 points, six boards, three steals, and two dimes in 25 minutes. His role reminds me of Howard's contributions above, and his numbers (12 points and five rebounds per game) were far better as a rookie. If he makes a similar improvement between his first and second years—and the Bulls love his work ethic—look out.
Udonis Haslem, HeatFantasy owners seem to be discounting Haslem's rock-solid eight-cat campaign because Miami added some high-profile ballers this offseason. However, while Antoine Walker, Gary Payton, and Jason Williams camp out behind the three-point arc, someone has to do the dirty work. Haslem was the ultimate role player last season, both for the Heat and fantasy owners. His 11 points per game don't jump out at you, but his nine rebounds, 54 percent shooting from the field (fourth in the NBA), and 79 percent clip from the line certainly do. I don't expect those numbers to improve all that much, but don't doubt for a second that Udonis won't serve you well as an efficient shooter and monster rebounder.
Mike Sweetney, BullsIf Chicago does indeed get veteran power forward Antonio Davis back from the Knicks, you can quickly remove Sweetney from this list. The Bulls are just too deep. However, if that doesn't happen, this talent will suddenly have the opportunity that equates to sleeper success. The loss of Curry leaves the Bulls with just two realistic options for back-to-the-basket scoring from the post—Sweetney and Othella Harrington, and Harrington is best used as a reserve off the pine. If Mike can win a starting job, solid scoring, rebounding, and shooting will follow. In two preseason games in a Chicago uniform, an out-of-shape Sweetney has 30 points and 18 rebounds.