Wilma: Deja Vu

[MannyIsGod]

I'd been pretty much out of the loop regarding Wilma other than a daily check in until I looked at the storm tonight. Well, we've seen this happen before this year with every storm that reached catagory 4 status and to a much greater degree with Katrina and Rita.

Wilma is now officialy a catagory 2 storm but is more than likely at least a catagory 3 storm. She's dropping pressure very fast - 16mb in the past few hours - and it appears the NHC is now officialy signing off on a scenario that brings her to catagory 5 status.

Deja fucking vu!

One thing thats really interesting is that even though the surface temps are pretty high, the water underneath is actually warmer, so upwelling which would normally weaken the storm is actually going to serve to make her stronger.


In any event, if the re-cycling does begin overnight, it likely would be complete by noon Wed, and would then allow for another 24 hours in which the storm could
resume a rapid intensification. In addition,m by late Wed and on through Friday, the storm will be passing over
the warmest heat content waters in the entire Atlantic Basin. What I found this evening, using the Navy's
altimetry derived SST's -- is that the water temps on the surface of the ocean are actually a couple of degrees
cooler than just below surface layer!. The mid mid fall temp fall off in water temps begins at the surface of
course, but because it has only just begun, temps are 1-2deg warmer about 10-50 meters below the surface!
This is rather ironic, in that it assures the slow moving storm will at first be upwelling WARMER Water!
Normally, upwelling results in colder, sub-surface water being drawn upwards. Combined with the overall
very favorable outflow, low wind shear environment -- CAT 4 now seems like a very distinct probability.




Anyhow, it looks as though Florida gets to deal with this one.

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200524_model.gif

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Cue the ST.com weather club circle jerk :lol

[spurs=bling]

16 mbs. damn she is getting stronger by the hour.

[MannyIsGod]

Holy shit, she's now as strong as Rita!!!

[ZStomp]

Should I be scared?

[MannyIsGod]

000
URNT12 KNHC 190446
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/04:32:40Z
B. 16 deg 52 min N
081 deg 56 min W
C. 850 mb 516 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 116 deg 162 kt
G. 15 deg 003 nm
H. EXTRAP 901 mb
I. 17 C/ 1537 m
J. 26 C/ 1557 m
K. 25 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C4
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 0724A WILMA OB 07
MAX FL WIND 162 KT NE QUAD 04:31:30 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB



She has a pressure of 901mb!!!! She dropped 53mb in 4 hours and she's likely to become the strongest storm EVER in the Atlantic basin sometime tonight.

She has surface winds of about 160mph now as well.

Once again, no one saw this coming.

[MannyIsGod]

Should I be scared?
Only if you plan on going to Florida.

[spurs=bling]

Holy shit, she's now as strong as Rita!!!

this is not good.

[spurs=bling]

000
URNT12 KNHC 190446
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/04:32:40Z
B. 16 deg 52 min N
081 deg 56 min W
C. 850 mb 516 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 116 deg 162 kt
G. 15 deg 003 nm
H. EXTRAP 901 mb
I. 17 C/ 1537 m
J. 26 C/ 1557 m
K. 25 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C4
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 0724A WILMA OB 07
MAX FL WIND 162 KT NE QUAD 04:31:30 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB



She has a pressure of 901mb!!!! She dropped 53mb in 4 hours and she's likely to become the strongest storm EVER in the atlantic basin sometime tonight.

Once again, no one saw this coming.


:wow 901 oh shit. is the only thing i can say

[Cant_Be_Faded]

They're controlling the weather and the end of the world is on the horizon.

[spurs=bling]

So Manny will this be this seasons third Cat 5?

[Cant_Be_Faded]

Just wait until we get Hurricane Alpha, Hurricane Beta, Hurricane Gamma, and Hurricane Delta

[Vashner]

CNN just said it's cat 4? .... wow..

[spurs=bling]

CNN just said it's cat 4? .... wow..

yes it is. Manny had already posted the max winds speeds.

[Trainwreck2100]

Just wait until we get Hurricane Alpha, Hurricane Beta, Hurricane Gamma, and Hurricane Delta


We need to name hurricane "Optimus Prime."

[MannyIsGod]

CNN just said it's cat 4? .... wow..
The NWS doesn't like to jump 2 catagories in one advisory, so they called it a Cat 4 and gave it 150mph winds. In all reality, the measurements support winds much higher than that and the pressure of 901 is indicative of a catagory 5 storm.

They can call it whatever they want, but you won't find a single meterologist who will deny Wilma is a 5.

3rd one this season and I think that is a record.

I'm pretty convinced at some point Wilma will break Gilberts 888mb record.

[Vashner]

I hope it leaves my precious alone (Cozumel)

[Trainwreck2100]

The NWS doesn't like to jump 2 catagories in one advisory, so they called it a Cat 4 and gave it 150mph winds. In all reality, the measurements support winds much higher than that and the pressure of 901 is indicative of a catagory 5 storm.

They can call it whatever they want, but you won't find a single meterologist who will deny Wilma is a 5.

3rd one this season and I think that is a record.

I'm pretty convinced at some point Wilma will break Gilberts 888mb record.


So it "transformed" into a cat 5.

[MannyIsGod]

Right on cue Gregory echos me...



NHC 'ONLY' UPGRADES TO CAT 4-
BUT WILMA IS A DEVASTATING CAT 5 HURRICANE
PERSONALLY ADVISE ALL FLORIDA KEYS RESIDENTS TO EVACUATE


Air Force RECON recently found the central pressure had fall to 901mb -- just a few MB above RITA record, and 1mb
lower than Katrina - at their Peak Intensity. The maximum Flight level winds were 162KTs in the NE quadrant, and being
conservative, this is 160mph sustained surface winds. However -- as politics would dictate -- NHC has only upgraded
the hurricane to a CAT 4, with 150mph sustained winds - 5mph below that of a CAT 5. In the Atlantic basin, pressures
below 920mb are normally associated with a CAT 5 hurricane. The storm is located at at 16.9N/82.0W and is moving NW at 5Kts.
Cloud top temps are near -87°C As cold as the temps ever get -- or at least as cold as the scale permits....


There will be several more measurements made during the next couple of hours -- but they will be difficult to take -- the eye is a mere 4NM
in diameter. I don't recall ever seeing a report of under 5NM. There is in fact, almost no room to maneuver the A/C. The pressure
was extrapolated -- from FLT Level -- but I am uncertain what that level was, though it appears they came in at about 1,400 feet.
The crew also just reported they climbed to 700mb within the eye for 'safety reasons'. That would presumably work out to around
5500ft. Just prior to penetrating the eyewall, the crew reported an East wind 158kts and a surface pressure of 899mb -- and that alone doesn't make sense. One of the 2 pressure was wrong by a few millibars. With the eye so small, the eyewall will have to be replaced within the hour -- and whether the pressure will again fall to this level is impossible to know.

The 00Z models are now even more tightly clustered a=on a landfall on the SW coast of Florida in 96 hours -- Saturday morning.

[HB22inSA]

I hate to put it this way, but I'm glad I'm going to be dead in the next 50 or so years.

I just have this bad feeling that planet Earth is headed for some extreme climate change in the next 100 years that we won't like very much.

[Das Texan]

good lord, this is just fucking unreal.

[MannyIsGod]

URNT12 KNHC 190648
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/06:11:10Z
B. 16 deg 58 min N
082 deg 11 min W
C. 700 mb 2132 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 202 deg 168 kt
G. 109 deg 003 nm
H. EXTRAP 892 mb
I. 10 C/ 3058 m
J. 24 C/ 3034 m
K. 11 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C2
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 0724A WILMA OB 12
MAX FL WIND 168 KT SE QUAD 06:10:20 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB

175mph surface winds with a pressure of 892mb - only 4mb over the alltime Atlantic record held by Gilbert.

Not that I have a long history with hurricane tracking, but I've never seen a closed eyewall only 2 miles wide. That is pure insanity. I hope the hurricane hunters flying in there are ok, that doesn't give them much room if they get in trouble.

[MannyIsGod]

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/08:00:30Z
B. 17 deg 03 min N
082 deg 20 min W
C. 700 mb 2082 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 320 deg 166 kt
G. 221 deg 003 nm
H. 884 mb
I. 10 C/ 3073 m
J. 24 C/ 3043 m
K. 10 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C4
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 0724A WILMA OB 16
MAX FL WIND 168 KT SE QUAD 06:10:20 Z


And why not. In the year of the record storm where hurricanes blow up into monsters in such small timeframes we have the lowest pressure ever recorded in the Atlantic. 884mb.

Hurricane Wilma is now the strongest hurricane of all time.

I'm going to go sleep for a few hours, but the data tomorrow morning should be interesting to say the least.

[TheWriter]

http://www.thecemeteryproject.com/images/Photos/Bush,%20George%20W.jpg

"Fool me once, shame on — shame on you. Fool me — you can't get fooled again."

- Bush on global warming.

[spurs=bling]

i guess that answers my question.

[TheTruth]

When is it expected to make landfall?

[j-6]

When is it expected to make landfall?


http://image.weather.com/images/maps/tropical/map_tropprjpath24_ltst_5nhato_enus_600x405.jpg

[sa_butta]

Damn I have friend that was suppose to go the Dolphins game on
Sunday. I guess that puts a hamper on things.

[Ishta]

Damn I have friend that was suppose to go the Dolphins game on
Sunday. I guess that puts a hamper on things.
Where do you think they will play, or do you think they will cancel the game....

[sa_butta]

Where do you think they will play, or do you think they will cancel the game.... The last time this happened they played their game on a Thursday instead of Sunday.

[MannyIsGod]

She went ahead and broke the record again, setting it at 881-2 (I've seen both reported). She may have gone lower than that but we won't know because there aren't any aircraft in the storm. Crazy shit.

[Pistons < Spurs]

Damn I have friend that was suppose to go the Dolphins game on
Sunday. I guess that puts a hamper on things.


I've got Priest Homes in my fantasy lineup.....this is terrible......maybe we'll see 2 games on Monday Night Footblall again.

For the sake of the people in south Florida, I hope this sucker loses some energy. At the rate this thing is growing....we could see another city washed away.

[Manu20]

Now the records for the strongest hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin stand like this.

Wilma (2005) 882mb
Gilbert (1988) 888mb
Labor day (1935) 892mb
Allen (1980) 899mb
Katrina (2005)902mb

[boutons]

0.1% lower pressure for Wilma is hardly a dramatic difference.

[MannyIsGod]

0.1% lower pressure for Wilma is hardly a dramatic difference.
Once you reach a hurricane of that strength it is all pretty much academic but the difference is significant in that sense.

[Extra Stout]

Now the records for the strongest hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin stand like this.

Wilma (2005) 882mb
Gilbert (1988) 888mb
Labor day (1935) 892mb
Allen (1980) 899mb
Katrina (2005)902mb

Rita should be on that list. She reached 895 mb or thereabouts.

[Extra Stout]

I've got Priest Homes in my fantasy lineup.....this is terrible......maybe we'll see 2 games on Monday Night Footblall again.

For the sake of the people in south Florida, I hope this sucker loses some energy. At the rate this thing is growing....we could see another city washed away.It will have a hard time sustaining that strength.

Sucks to be Cuba, though.

The only solace is that Wilma is a very compact storm, with hurricane-force winds extending only 15 miles from the center, but that could change over the course of a week.

[Vashner]

0.1% lower pressure for Wilma is hardly a dramatic difference.
Go back to Bush bashing.. cause you suck at weatherman.

[MannyIsGod]

It will have a hard time sustaining that strength.

Sucks to be Cuba, though.

The only solace is that Wilma is a very compact storm, with hurricane-force winds extending only 15 miles from the center, but that could change over the course of a week.
Thats not really much of a solace because once she begins her NE turn, that windfield will probably quadruple in size due to the effects of the TROF.

So what you're likely to see are hurricane force winds out to 50-70 miles and tropical storm force winds as much as 3 times out that far.

You'll probably see a storm make landfall in Florda as a catagory 4 storm, but possibly 3 if she slows down enough to weaken further.

[MannyIsGod]

Rita should be on that list. She reached 895 mb or thereabouts.
She's 4th on the list now.

Wilma
Gilbert
Labor Day Storm
Rita
Allen
Katrina


3 out of that list are from this season. There is something that has lent itself to these incredible phases of rapid intensification. I'm not sure that water tempatures aren't actually hotter than is being surmized this year.

If you go beyond those storms, you can also put Emily and Dennis into a list of storms that reached catagory 4 status. I'm convinced had those storms been a bit later in the season they would have reached cat 5 status as well. As it was, they may have but there were no planes out there to record them at their peaks. They were also incredibly strong storms for as early in the season as they developed. All things considered, that they were as strong as they were in the early summer makes them as much of a meterological oddball as any of the 3 cat 5 storms we have had this year.

[Ishta]

any updates lately?

[John T]

Where are the best (read: most reliable) sources to get updates on this? I read on another message board that the winds were down to 165 and the pressure up to 900. Wanted to confirm.


Carie

Oh, and before there are any smart-ass answers about Manny being the best source I meant web or news sources so that I don't have to contantly bother Manny :)

[MannyIsGod]

000
URNT12 KNHC 191822 CCB
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/18:06:20Z
B. 17 deg 24 min N
083 deg 23 min W
C. 700 mb 2149 m
D. 75 kt
E. 029 deg 008 nm
F. 111 deg 128 kt
G. 023 deg 002 nm
H. 892 mb
I. 12 C/ 3058 m
J. 20 C/ 3028 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C4
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 0824A WILMA OB 11 CCB
MAX FL WIND 128 KT N QUAD 18:05:40 Z


She's undergoing an EWRC so she'll weaken over the next 12 hours or so, but I suspect she'll jump back to CAT 5 status after that point.

[spurs=bling]

000
URNT12 KNHC 191822 CCB
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/18:06:20Z
B. 17 deg 24 min N
083 deg 23 min W
C. 700 mb 2149 m
D. 75 kt
E. 029 deg 008 nm
F. 111 deg 128 kt
G. 023 deg 002 nm
H. 892 mb
I. 12 C/ 3058 m
J. 20 C/ 3028 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C4
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 0824A WILMA OB 11 CCB
MAX FL WIND 128 KT N QUAD 18:05:40 Z


She's undergoing an EWRC so she'll weaken over the next 12 hours or so, but I suspect she'll jump back to CAT 5 status after that point.

i just hope this is the end of the hurricanes.

i know it ends on Nov 30th. but i don't think people are ready for another Cat 5 hurricane.

[Vashner]

Oh man... I hope they are evacuating Cozumel fast. They been hit hard 2 times this year already. They just replaced almost every power pole in San Miguel.

[MannyIsGod]

Its looking more and more likely Cozumel is going to get hit again and that Mexico is once again going to take it on the chin. Florida may luck out, however.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

Gas prices will go up.

[Vashner]

The good thing about Cozumel is the stucco they use for most buildings (wood is a premium there) makes some strong structures. Also the east coast is mostly undeveloped. The reefs and hotel zone is on the inward west side.

This should help keep the surge dmg down I think?
http://home.satx.rr.com/krograth/images/cozumel05.jpg

[MannyIsGod]

Yeah, the east side will get the worst of it.

[Manu20]

Hurricane Wilma Discussion Number 18


Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on October 19, 2005



agreement among the track guidance models...which had been very good
over the past couple of days...has completely collapsed today. The
06z runs of the GFS...GFDL...and NOGAPS models accelerated Wilma
rapidly toward New England under the influence of a large low
pressure system in the Great Lakes region. All three of these
models have backed off of this solution...with the GFDL showing an
extreme change...with its 5-day position shifting a mere 1650 nmi
from its previous position in Maine to the western tip of Cuba.
There is almost as much spread in the 5-day positions of the 12z
GFS ensemble members...which range from the Yucatan to well east of
the Delmarva Peninsula. What this illustrates is the extreme
sensitivity of Wilma's future track to its interaction with the
Great Lakes low. Over the past couple of days...Wilma has been
moving slightly to the left or south of the model guidance...and
the left-most of the guidance solutions are now showing Wilma
delaying or missing the connection with the low. I have slowed the
official forecast just a little bit at this time...but if Wilma
continues to move more to the left than expected...substantial
changes to the official forecast may have to be made down the line.
Needless to say...confidence in the forecast track...especially the
timing...has decreased considerably.The latest pressure reported by the reconnaissance aircraft was 892
mb...with peak 700 mb winds of 152 kt. The initial intensity is
lowered to 140 kt. Aircraft reports...as well as microwave and
conventional satellite imagery...indicate that the inner
5-mile-wide eye of Wilma is weakening within two outer eyewalls...
one 10 miles wide and another about 45 miles across. In the short
term...this means that the peak winds should decrease as the wind
field expands...but there should be ample time for Wilma to
reintensity before it approaches the Yucatan. With an increasing
possibility that there will be a considerable interaction with the
Yucatan...I have lowered the intensity forecast slightly in the
Gulf of Mexico.

Forecaster Franklin

[ObiwanGinobili]

omg.
I saw on the news that Wilma was now a cat.5.... and I came right on here to Spurstalk, wondering: "hmmm maybe there is a Wilma thread".

:lol
why did I even question it? I should have just assumed that there was. :lol




meanwhile I shall now read this thread front to back and back to front seeing as how all the best and most up to date hurricane info in the world comes thru here. :tu

[Vashner]

I am worried about Isla Mujeres too..

[spurs=bling]

meanwhile I shall now read this thread front to back and back to front seeing as how all the best and most up to date hurricane info in the world comes thru here. :tu


you have to thank Manny.

[MannyIsGod]

haha, I just relay what I read from the NHC. Manu20 knows his shit too.

[John T]

So what's going on now? I heard something about it only being a Cat 1 when and if it hits Florida now?


Carie

[MannyIsGod]

Doubtful. Depending on what happens on its turn and interaction with the Yucatan we should still see a major (cat 3 or above) storm when it hits Florida. Its a cat 4 right now because its going an eye wall replacement cycle but I think it'll pick up again sometime tomorrow.

[John T]

Oh. Thanks for clearing that up. I wonder where they were getting their information. They live in Florida. Hopefully that's not the information that's being disseminated to the masses.


Carie

[baseline bum]

Goddamn I'm so sick of hearing the phrase eyewall replacement cycle. Is this stupid hurricane season ever going to end?

[MannyIsGod]

Goddamn I'm so sick of hearing the phrase eyewall replacement cycle. Is this stupid hurricane season ever going to end?
Yeah, that and "loop current" became the media's favorite catch phrases this summer/fall.

[Nbadan]

Goddamn I'm so sick of hearing the phrase eyewall replacement cycle. Is this stupid hurricane season ever going to end?

Have you seen this forming directly behind Wilma?

http://www.intellicast.com/WeatherImg/SatelliteLoop/hifloat5_None_anim.gif

For reference:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/images/xxirg8n.GIF

[MannyIsGod]

Too much sheer in that area for any development. Values are running near 40kts for sheer in the area it is entering.

[ObiwanGinobili]

CNN is (for once) not spreading fear and panic...
they are acting like wilma will only be a cat1 once she gets past the yucatan and she will only swipe the Keys of Florida, not central florida.

but I'll only believe that if I hear it from Manny.
Meanwhile, just what I'm seeing with my uneducated eyes makes me disbelieve the CnN weather chick.

[Ishta]

Yeah, that and "loop current" became the media's favorite catch phrases this summer/fall.
don't forget a whole hell of alot of people have "hunkered down" this hurricane season too!! I have heard that phrase so much I could vomit:lol :lol :lol :lol

[Ishta]

CNN is (for once) not spreading fear and panic...
they are acting like wilma will only be a cat1 once she gets past the yucatan and she will only swipe the Keys of Florida, not central florida.

but I'll only believe that if I hear it from Manny.
Meanwhile, just what I'm seeing with my uneducated eyes makes me disbelieve the CnN weather chick.
I know it's off topic, but how are you feeling Obi?

[ObiwanGinobili]

I know it's off topic, but how are you feeling Obi?

Well I've actually had a freakin stomach flu :vomit :vomit the last 2 days! :eyebrows UGH!
Just now gettign over it. I'm sooo mad that I got sick.
my mother in law had to come up here and is takign care of me and my house.
(you know I'm desperate when I allow that crap :lol)

But to day I'm feeling alot better (thank the lord for Phengran!) and I'm hoping to be 100% by tonight so I can wake up all chipper and bushy tailed tomarrow! :tu

Otherwise I'm jsut a bit ansy and on edge casue it;s so close to the end - ya know? I have a butterflies/i'm hungry but i'm not feeling in my chest.

:princess I can't wait!

thanks for asking! :)

[Ishta]

Well I've actually had a freakin stomach flu :vomit :vomit the last 2 days! :eyebrows UGH!
Just now gettign over it. I'm sooo mad that I got sick.
my mother in law had to come up here and is takign care of me and my house.
(you know I'm desperate when I allow that crap :lol)

But to day I'm feeling alot better (thank the lord for Phengran!) and I'm hoping to be 100% by tonight so I can wake up all chipper and bushy tailed tomarrow! :tu

Otherwise I'm jsut a bit ansy and on edge casue it;s so close to the end - ya know? I have a butterflies/i'm hungry but i'm not feeling in my chest.

:princess I can't wait!

thanks for asking! :)Your very welcome. I know everything will be a go for you tommorow. You must not be feeling good to allow the mother in law over. I would have to be practically dead to have mine come to my house especially if I was sick..She would try to start running things her way, and would totally reorganize my house to where I couldn't find a thing! All will be well you've done this before!!:spin

[Nbadan]

Too much sheer in that area for any development. Values are running near 40kts for sheer in the area it is entering.

For those interested, the latest loop is an excellent example of how wind sheer can rip apart a developing low.


http://www.intellicast.com/WeatherImg/SatelliteLoop/hifloat5_None_anim.gif

Here is the developing low today relative to Hurricane Wilma..

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GIFS/HUWV.JPG

Still, if this low creeps enough to the West and gets into the warm Caribbean waters, all bets are off. To early to tell, but given this hurricane season, I wouldn't bet against it just yet.

[MannyIsGod]

CNN may be right. It really just depends on how much Wilma intereacts with the Yucatan. If she actually makes landfall or comes really close, she could lose a lot of steam.

However, I don't think she'll be a catagory 1 when she gets to Florida. Catagory 2 at best, but depending on if she gets stronger today when her EWRC that may be wishful thinking as well.

[Manu20]

This is the latest GFS run. It does not look good for Cancun and Cozumel.

This is in 24 hours.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_024s.gif

And this is in 72 hours.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_072s.gif

[Manu20]

As of 4pm cdt Hurricane Wilma has sustained winds of 150mph with gusts to 185mph and the minimum pressure is 918mb.

[Manu20]

Hurricane Wilma Discussion Number 22


Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on October 20, 2005



Wilma has turned northwestward...310/5...but this is not necessarily
the beginnings of recurvature. A short-wave trough in the
westerlies...the old low from Baja California...will move past the
longitude of the hurricane by tomorrow morning...and the track
models show a slight Bend back to the left as a little ridging
builds in behind it. In fact...the global models are now
suggesting that it may take three short waves to lift Wilma out of
the Yucatan. The GFDL did another big shift with its 5-day
forecast...from Canada at 6z to Cuba at 12z. There is less spread
in the GFS ensemble members this time...however...lending a little
more credence to a slower track. The 12z models also had the
benefit of dropwindsonde data from the NOAA gulfstream jet. The
new official forecast is slower than the previous one...but is
still very much faster than all of the available guidance. This
implies that the impact to Florida could well be later than
indicated here.
There is very little left of the inner eyewall...and reports from a
NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that Wilma is beginning to
restrengthen. Peak flight level winds were 145 kt...and the SFMR
instrument onboard measured a surface wind of 125 kt in the north
eyewall. Based on these observations...the initial intensity is
set at 130 kt. The upper-level outflow pattern remains strong and
Wilma will have the opportunity to regain category five status
before it reaches the Yucatan...and the impacts there could be
catastrophic. With the likelihood of a more extended interaction
with the Yucatan increasing...significant weakening is possible
before Wilma turns toward Florida. In addition...the longer Wilma
lingers before turning northeastward...the more hostile the
atmospheric environment will become for strengthening over the Gulf
of Mexico.

Forecaster Franklin

[Manu20]

Hurricane Wilma made its expected turn northwest, and is now headed towards Cozumel Island as an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane capable of massive destruction. A new hurricane hunter plane arrived at the center at 2:45 pm EDT, and found a central pressure of 918 mb and surface winds of 150 mph. The 4:16 pm report had the same pressure and winds, so Wilma has leveled out in intensity. Wilma has completed an eyewall replacement cycle, and now has a large 40 mile diameter eye. Some intensification is likely the next 18 hours before Wilma comes ashore in the Yucatan. It is possible Wilma can eclipse its record 882 mb pressure, but she probably will not have enough time to do that.

Wilma's impact on Mexico

Wilma's impact on Mexico is likely to be catastrophic. A 50-mile wide stretch of coast will receive Category 4 to 5 sustained winds of over 150 mph, causing incredible damage. As Wilma sits in place for two days, the long duration of high winds will cause far more damage than a quickly moving storm would. The long duration extreme winds will probably cause some of the worst wind damage ever seen in a hurricane. The storm surge will not be as much as a problem, because deep water just offshore will prevent a huge storm surge from piling up. Still, the expected storm surge of up to 11 feet will cause widespread damage to coastal structures.In adddition, rainfall amounts of 15 - 25 will cause serious flooding. Wilma is likely to be Mexico's worst weather disaster in history.

[Vashner]

Smoke dust and sand whirls?? lol

Cozumel Civ / Mil , Mexico
(MMCZ) 20-32N 086-56W

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conditions at Oct 20, 2005 - 04:00 PM EDTOct 20, 2005 - 03:00 PM CDTOct 20, 2005 - 02:00 PM MDTOct 20, 2005 - 01:00 PM PDTOct 20, 2005 - 12:00 PM ADTOct 20, 2005 - 11:00 AM HDT
2005.10.20 2000 UTC
Weather Smoke,
Well developed dust or sand whirls,
ob MMCZ 202000Z FUSE POR WILMA

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Precipitation Accumulation
Precipitation
Amount
6.28 inches In the 6 hours preceding Oct 20, 2005 - 08:00 AM EDT / 2005.10.20 1200 UTC

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

24 Hour Summary
Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F (C) Dew Point
F (C) Pressure
Inches (hPa) Wind
MPH Weather
Latest 4 PM (20) Oct 20 smoke, ; well developed dust or sand whirls,
3 PM (19) Oct 20 84 (29) 77 (25) 29.6 (1002) ENE 46
2 PM (18) Oct 20 86 (30) 77 (25) 29.61 (1002) ENE 40 haze
1 PM (17) Oct 20 84 (29) 78 (26) 29.65 (1004) NNE 23 haze
Noon (16) Oct 20 84 (29) 78 (26) 29.63 (1003) NNE 23 haze
11 AM (15) Oct 20 82 (28) 77 (25) 29.64 (1003) NNE 28 haze
10 AM (14) Oct 20 82 (28) 77 (25) 29.62 (1003) NNE 35 haze
9 AM (13) Oct 20 82 (28) 78 (26) 29.65 (1004) NNE 29 haze
8 AM (12) Oct 20 82 (28) 78 (26) 29.65 (1004) ENE 28
7 AM (11) No Data
6 AM (10) No Data
5 AM (9) No Data
4 AM (8) No Data
3 AM (7) No Data
2 AM (6) No Data
1 AM (5) No Data
Midnight (4) No Data
11 PM (3) Oct 19 78 (26) 78 (26) 29.73 (1006) ENE 9 haze
10 PM (2) Oct 19 75 (24) 75 (24) 29.73 (1006) NNW 16 light rain, haze
9 PM (1) Oct 19 78 (26) 77 (25) 29.72 (1006) W 17
8 PM (0) Oct 19 77 (25) 77 (25) 29.73 (1006) ENE 12
7 PM (23) Oct 19 77 (25) 77 (25) 29.73 (1006) ENE 17 rain
6 PM (22) Oct 19 80 (27) 75 (24) 29.73 (1006) ENE 21
Oldest 5 PM (21) Oct 19 86 (30) 78 (26) 29.72 (1006) NE 23

[scott]

I predict that scott scores a great cruise deal sometime next week as a result of Wilma.

[Vashner]

No updates? ...

The eye seems to look well formed now..
http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/rad-canc.jpg

[Ginofan]

No updates? ...

The eye seems to look well formed now..


I thought it was well formed before, just really small....

Good luck to everyone in Cozumel, that place is gonna get rocked :/

[MannyIsGod]

The eye is actually open to the south I believe. But yeah, Cozumel is going to go through hell for over a day.

[SpursWoman]

I'm glad I had a chance to go to Cancun ... :drunk :fro

[Manu20]

Hurricane Wilma Discussion Number 23


Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on October 20, 2005



reports from a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft before 00z indicated
that the central pressure of Wilma had risen to 923 mb...and the
maximum 700 mb flight-level winds had decreased to 130-140 kt.
Since then...satellite imagery shows an improved eye presentation
and cooling cloud tops around the center..although not enough to
justify an increase in intensity. Based on this...the initial
intensity remains 130 kt. The next aircraft will investigate Wilma
around 05z.
Wilma has turned more to the right during the past few hr...with the
initial motion now 325/5. The hurricane is moving into a col area
between mid-level ridges to the east and west...while the stronger
westerlies remain north of 26n according to data from the NOAA g4
jet. This is a good formula for slow motion...and all models agree
on this for the next 24-48 hr. However...the dynamical models
steer Wilma northwestward into the Yucatan Peninsula during the
next 12-24 hr...a motion that is not supported by the current right
turn or the jet data. Therefore...the forecast track will be well
to the right of the model guidance...with the center forecast to
pass over the extreme northeastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula.
This track also requires an earlier recurvature into the westerlies
than any of the guidance and a faster progress toward the northeast
and the Florida Peninsula. The new forecast track is similar to
the previous forecast...except somewhat slower through 96 hr.
Given the radical departure from the model guidance...this is a low
confidence forecast.
The intensity forecast is very problematic. First...the intensity
forecast calls for weakening due to passage over the Yucatan
Peninsula. If Wilma moves as far inland as the models forecast...
it will weaken considerably and likely be much weaker than forecast
along the rest of the track. On the other hand...if the eye moves
east of the track the hurricane will likely stay stronger than
forecast...at least for the first 36-48 hr. Second...all available
data shows that the outflow has decreased to the west as weak
westerly flow impinges on Wilma. This will likely not prevent the
intensification forecast during the next 24 hr...although it may be
a precursor to the shear forecast to affect the hurricane over the
Gulf of Mexico. This shear should cause Wilma to weaken regardless
of how strong it is after passing Yucatan. Third...water vapor
imagery continues to show very dry mid/upper-level air covering the
Gulf of Mexico. As Wilma interacts with the westerlies...this air
should begin to entrain into the hurricane...and indeed there has
been some erosion of the western side of the cloud pattern during
the past 6 hr. Finally...Wilma should pass over the warm loop
current followed by cooler waters near the Florida Peninsula. The
latter should aid the shear-induced weakening. Given the
uncertainties...the intensity forecast will change little from the
previous advisory. It should be noted that if Wilma misses Yucatan
there is a chance that in spite of all the negative factors it
could be a major hurricane at landfall in Florida.
NOAA buoy 42003 in the eastern Gulf of Mexico reports that large
swells generated by Wilma are propagating toward portions of the
northern Gulf Coast...and could reach the coast on Friday.

Forecaster Beven

[Manu20]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/GMEX/IR4/20.jpg

It definitely looks like it is strengthening.

[Vashner]

I hope my friend Nacho, one of the local Cozumel divemasters, got off the island.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Manny, I'm too lazy to do any homework on this - why are they expecting the extreme right hook instead of a track to Texas?

[Manu20]

High pressure in mid-levels of the atmosphere across the central and western Gulf of Mexico is weakening as an upper level trough of low pressure tracks across Missouri and this has turned Wilma more to the northwest. This upper trough of low pressure does not extend far enough south to influence Wilma entirely and it should pull away from the Gulf of Mexico on Friday, causing Wilma to slow down near the Yucatan coast and make landfall near Cozumel during the day Friday. We think that Wilma will linger near the northeast Yucatan Friday night into Saturday. A more impressive upper trough will dive southeast into the Tennessee Valley and the Deep South Sunday and Sunday night, and this should give Wilma a bigger push to the northeast. We think that Wilma will make a second landfall along the southwest coast of Florida Sunday night and move into the Atlantic Ocean on Monday.

[MannyIsGod]

Manu20 just posted why above. The low pressure system that is moving across the US is going to change the airflow and steer the storm in that direction. The airflow around the area of low pressuer serves to pull the storm up to the north. It will move much faster as this happens and its going to tranistion into an extra tropical storm. It happens quite often in the North Atlantic - think "The Perfect Storm". It is the same type of situation. They are actually worried about the effect it could have on New England as well.


Also, I saw this on a blog and had to post it:

http://i11.photobucket.com/albums/a153/fsufan524/image001.jpg

Hilarity in a shitty situation. I hope everyone in Mexico is safe. They've been hit way too much this year.

[MannyIsGod]

Cozumel is almost entirely in the eye right now! It's pretty amazing.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/IR4/20.jpg

[Ishta]

Updates anyone?

[Vashner]

Yea the island is about 30 miles thick and 50 miles long. From San Miguel you can drive along road to the east side. There is a couple of bars right at the east end. But the waves are really nasty and rocky so it's not used by people to swim or dive. They just sit around nekkid at the nude beach.

[SpursWoman]

By WILL WEISSERT, Associated Press Writer
31 minutes ago



CANCUN, Mexico - Hurricane Wilma tore into Mexico's resort-studded Mayan Riviera on Friday with torrential rains and shrieking winds, filling the streets with water as thousands of stranded tourists hunkered down in hotel ballrooms and emergency shelters.

ADVERTISEMENT

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center in Miami said Wilma officially made landfall about 4:30 p.m. EDT, with the center of the storm's eye hitting the cruise-ship magnet island of Cozumel.

The fearsome Category 4 storm, which killed 13 people in Haiti and Jamaica, was expected to pummel the tip of the Yucatan Peninsula for two days, sparking fears of catastrophic damage. It is forecast to sideswipe Cuba before bearing down on Florida.

"Tin roofing is flying through the air everywhere. Palm trees are falling down. Signs are in the air and cables are snapping," Julio Torres told The Associated Press by telephone from the Red Cross office in Cozumel.

"Not even emergency vehicles have been able to go out on the streets, because the winds are too strong."

The wind bent palm trees and the surf washed away tiki huts on hotel beaches. Power was cut early Friday to most parts of Cancun — a standard safety precaution.

Shop windows were shattered, cars were crushed under fallen trees and pay phones jutted from waist-deep floodwaters in the famed hotel zone.

At the same time, Wilma's outer bands pounded western Cuba, where the government evacuated nearly 370,000 people. Forecasters said Wilma could bring more than 3 feet of rain to parts of Cuba.

About 7,000 residents were evacuated from the coastal fishing village of La Coloma in Cuba's southern Pinar del Rio province.

"We thought we'd be spending a lot less time here," Maria Elena Torre said at a shelter set up inside a boarding school. "Now we have no idea how long we'll be here."

Civil defense official Adolfo Nilo Moreno said the 725 evacuees at the school were likely to remain in place until Tuesday or Wednesday.

"Luckily, we have enough food for four months," primarily rice, chicken, bread and milk, he said.

In Florida, emergency officials on Friday issued evacuation orders for the west coast town of Naples and a nearby island, which the storm was expected to reach Monday. Florida Keys residents also were asked to leave.

At 5 p.m. EDT, Wilma's winds were at 140 mph — down slightly from 145 mph a few hours earlier — as the storm made landfall on Cozumel, the hurricane center said. The hurricane was about 430 miles southwest of Key West, Fla., and was moving northwest at about 5 mph.

Forecasters said it likely would weaken over land.

"It's going to be a long couple of days here for the Yucatan Peninsula," hurricane center director Max Mayfield said.

No injuries were reported as the hurricane moved in. Cancun Red Cross director Ricardo Portugal said the biggest problem so far had been "nervous crises," and 11 pregnant women were ferried to hospitals because of worries the storm had induced labor.

Mexican officials said about 20,000 tourists were at shelters and hotels on the mainland south of Cancun, and an estimated 10,000-12,000 were in Cancun itself. About 50 hotels there were evacuated.

Hotels being used as shelters pushed furniture up against windows that were not boarded up, and some people slept under plastic sheeting to protect them from dripping roofs.

Juan Luis Flores, an emergency services official in Quintana Roo state, said about 65,000 people were evacuated. Mexico's civil defense chief, Carmen Segura, assured people "their families are protected as they should be."

But instead of luxury hotel suites over a turquoise sea, many tourists found themselves sleeping on the floors of hotel ballrooms, schools and gymnasiums reeking of sweat because there was no power or air conditioning.

Scott and Jamie Stout of Willisville, Ill., were spending their honeymoon on a Cancun basketball court with a leaky roof.

"After one more day of this, I believe people will start getting cranky," said Scott Stout, 26. "Things could get messy."

The Stouts, at least, had food and coffee. Devon Anderson, 21, of Sacramento, Calif., was sharing 10 rooms at a rundown Cozumel school with 200 other Americans.

"We are all sleeping on the floor," Anderson said. "There's no food, no water."

At the Xbalamque Hotel, a downtown Cancun shelter for evacuees from beachfront resorts, American tourist Becky Hora, 37, watched floodwaters rise up the steps toward the lobby as winds howled and trees thudded to the ground.

"It's awful," she said. "I thought that last night we had made it through the worst of it. And now it turns out this is only the beginning. It's hard to stay calm."

Ronnie Croley, 46, said he lost power at his Madison, Miss., home for four days after Hurricane Katrina struck, then he helped his company clean up a factory damaged by Hurricane Rita.

"This was supposed to be a little break for us, but now here we are again," he said.

Wilma briefly strengthened to Category 5 and became the most intense hurricane recorded in the Atlantic Ocean with 882 millibars of pressure, breaking the record low of 888 set by Hurricane Gilbert in 1988. Lower pressure brings faster winds.

___

Associated Press reporter Vanessa Arrington in Pinar del Rio, Cuba, and David Royse in Key West, Fla., contributed to this report.

[Ishta]

Yea the island is about 30 miles thick and 50 miles long. From San Miguel you can drive along road to the east side. There is a couple of bars right at the east end. But the waves are really nasty and rocky so it's not used by people to swim or dive. They just sit around nekkid at the nude beach.
smart ass :lol :lol

[Vashner]

smart ass :lol :lol

Of course being the neocon bureaucrat I document everything... in case you know people are like "no way dude"..

http://home.satx.rr.com/krograth/images/cozumel06.jpg

[Ginofan]

Looking at the latest sat. loops it looks as though Wilma is just ploppin' her ass on Cancun and not moving!

[Vashner]

Cozumel update. Some phones working. Not a single camera crew or big media on the island. Residents report 2+ feet of water flooding in San Miguel. Several buildings collapsed but no reports of casualties. 100 tourists in lobby of Hotel Cozumel (this hotel changes names like every year). People calling from Cozumel want to know when it's going to be over. Resident comment about it being worse than 88 gilbert.

[Manu20]

A deluge of rain
Rainfall amounts in Mexico from Wilma have been extreme. Isla Mujeres, just offshore from Cancun, has reported almost 35" of rain over the past 1 1/2 days, and at one point reported 4" of rain in one hour between 2 and 3 am EDT today. Rainfall amounts in Cuba have not been nearly so extreme--at least in the areas of western Cuba that are still reporting data. San Juan y Martinez measured 10.7 cm (4.2 inches) of rain the past 24 hours, and storm total rainfall amounts of up to 18 cm (7 inches) have been measured in Cuba's westernmost province. Grand Cayman received five inches, Jamaica's Kingston airport eight inches, and Belize four inches. The north coast of Honduras has had numerous locations receive ten inches of rain, with one unofficial report of 20 inches. Rainfall in Haiti reached 8 - 10 inches, and, triggered flash floods that killed 11 people.

[Manu20]

A little off topic but Tropical Storm Alpha has been born!


Tropical Storm Alpha Discussion Number 2


Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on October 22, 2005


A 1500z trmm composite pass indicated a well-defined circulation
center near 16.3n 67.9w with a tightly clustered banding feature.
The cyclone has become better organized throughout the day as
evident on satellite imagery. 18z Dvorak classification from all
three agencies were 2.0/2.0...and moreover the cloud pattern has
continued to improved since that time. At 18z...a ship report from
c6fn4 had a 22 knot southwest wind about 30 nm southeast of the
center with a 1007 mb pressure. Based upon the above information
the cyclone has been upgraded to tropical storm Alpha. Alpha is the
twenty-second named storm this season and overall makes the 2005
hurricane season the most active on record.
Initial motion is estimated at 305/13. Water vapor imagery indicates
the storm is just to the south of the western periphery of a low-
to mid-layer ridge. Alpha is forecast to move northwestward for the
next 12-24 hours around the anticyclone to the northeast...then
recurve to the northe and eventually northeast ahead of Wilma and
the large deep-layer baroclinic trough forming over the eastern
United States. The official track forecast has Alpha being
absorbed by the trough in 96 hours if not sooner.
Alpha is forecast to slowly intensify in the next 12 hours prior to
making landfall along the South Coast of Hispaniola. After
weakening over the mountains some brief re-intensification is
possible prior to the cyclone being absorbed into the larger system
to the northwest.

The most significant impact of this system is expected to be heavy
rainfall and potential flooding over Hispaniola.

Forecaster Mainelli/Knabb

[Vashner]

Xena...

Why don't they use XYZ?

[Manu20]

Xena...

Why don't they use XYZ?

Well they actually do not use Q, U, X, Y, and Z because there is not a lot of names beginning with those letters. If they run out of names like this season they use the Greek alphapet: Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta,. etc.

[spurs=bling]

so how is Alpha doing?

[Vashner]

I still don't buy that NWS excuse.. they can make names out of those letters.

[spurs=bling]

I still don't buy that NWS excuse.. they can make names out of those letters.


let make our own names out of those letters.

[hussker]

George Bush Don't Like Mexican People

[Vashner]

Xena
Quamiea
Yoshimi
Zelda
:)

[spurs=bling]

George Bush Don't Like Mexican People

where do you get that from?

[spurs=bling]

Xena
Quamiea
Yoshimi
Zelda
:)
:tu

[Ginofan]

George Bush Don't Like Mexican People

:lol Nice one.


I can't believe we are on Alpha with a whole month to go! Crazy season to say the very least.

[Ishta]

updates?

[MannyIsGod]

I'm (along with most professional and amateur meteorologists) extremely perplexed as to just how Alpha formed. There is so much shear in that area, it should be virtually impossible for a storm to have formed there.

But then again, it should have been impossible for Vince form where it did then hit Spain, it should have been impossible for us to have this many catagory 5 storms, it should have been impossible to set this many records. 05 is definetly the year of possible impossibilities.

Wilma isn't going to be done after Florida either. New England is going to get nailed as the storm tranitions into an extra tropical monster. Much like what you saw in "The Perfect Storm" although probably not to the same degree.

[Spam]

http://cctvimedia.clearchannel.com/woai/bios/jen120.jpg
"You nailed it Manny!"

[Vashner]

Manny you should take the job of the guy who does mornings for KENS now..

The guy really sucks BAD. He tries these stupid jokes and is just the most annoying
weatherman in the world.

[Manu20]

As of 10am cdt Hurricane Wilma has winds of 100mph with gusts to 120mph moving to the northeast at 8mph.


Hurricane Wilma Discussion Number 33


Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on October 23, 2005



Wilma is moving a little faster toward the northeast at about 7
kt... which is a mere preview of the gradual acceleration expected
during the next couple of days. A mid- to upper-level low currently
situated roughly over Iowa is forecast by the dynamical models to
move eastward over the Great Lakes region during the next 24 hours.
The associated trough over the southeastern United States will
deepen some and gradually strengthen the westerlies over the Gulf
of Mexico... which will push Wilma northeastward at an increasing
pace. The latest dynamical model runs continue to focus the Florida
landfall over the southern part of the peninsula... but still with
some variation in both the speed and path. The GFDL is the
southernmost solution... and the other models have perhaps shifted
slightly south and are a little slower than before. The official
forecast is only adjusted slightly to the south with negligible
change in the timing... and it is very close to the model
consensus. It is important to stress that one should not focus on
the exact forecast track since Wilma has a large and expanding wind
field... and significant impacts will likely be felt well away from
the center.
The last recon fix at about 12z measured a central pressure 961
mb... which had remained steady for several hours. The next
aircraft is almost in the center at this hour and will provide
updates on the pressure and winds. For now...the intensity is kept
at 85 kt given the limited changes in structure observed in
satellite imagery... and 12z Dvorak intensity estimates of t5.0/90
kt. Inner core convection and organization do seem to be on a
gradual increase. As Wilma passes over The Loop current
today...and while the wind shear remains weak enough... some
intensification is certainly possible during the next 12 to 18
hours... as suggested by the GFDL model. The SHIPS guidance
forecasts a steady weakening until landfall... although it might be
overestimating the impacts of shear in the short term. However...it
does appear that the shear will strengthen in the hours prior to
landfall and as Wilma crosses Florida... so weakening is indicated
in the official forecast before landfall. While the best estimate
of landfall intensity is category two...it remains possible that
Wilma could reach Florida at category three intensity.

Forecaster Knabb

[MannyIsGod]

That area is really susceptible to storm surge. The weaker the better.

[Vashner]

Tourists stuck on Cozumel. Casa Del Mar is where I stayed at last time. Nice
place.

Just in - An update from hotel assoc - no people in
Convention Center at this time. Authorites consider
that people will be safe in these hotels. Tourist
assoc says the island has 15 days supplies of food,
fuel, etc.

HOTELS WITH PEOPLE:
Hotel San Miguel 6
Melia 119
Occidental Grand 200
Sol Caribe 16
Villablanca 6
Casa del Mar 24
Mexicana 64
Coral Princess 69
Cozumel Palace 4
Hotel Cozumel Resort 88
Days Inn 48
El Cozumeleno 122
El Cid 44
Fiesta Americana 100
@ 900 people total
- no expectation of planes to arrive

[Ishta]

I wonder if Wilma will gain anymore strength before making landfall in Florida..I can't believe there are so many people staying..

[MannyIsGod]

I would stay if I wasn't right on the coast. It is moving so fast its going to pass very quickly.

[Manu20]

It looks like the circulation of Hurricane Wilma will overtake Alpha.


Tropical Depression Alpha Discussion Number 7


Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on October 23, 2005



the surface circulation associated with Alpha remains a bit elusive
since emerging from Hispaniola earlier today but it is assumed to be
within the persistent area of convection over the southern Bahamas.
This yields a slightly faster and more northward motion of
360/18...consistent with the anticipated acceleration toward the
north-northeast ahead of Wilma. Given the resilience of this
convective area...the initial intensity is kept at 30 knots and is
supported by a recent Quikscat pass and ship zcdg8 which recently
reported 29 kt. The intensity forecast is challenging. On one
hand...the shear is forecast to remain low through 24 hours and the
circulation is now completely over water. On the other
hand...global models all agree that the depression will be rapidly
overtaken by and will merge with the expanding circulation
associated with Wilma. The official forecast assumes this
interactions will begin sooner rather than later and keeps Alpha as
a depression until it becomes completely absorbed by the larger
circulation of Wilma in 24-36 hours.

Forecaster Rhome/Stewart

[Manu20]

As of 10pm cdt Hurricane Wilma has maximum winds of 115mph with gusts to 140mph and moving to the NE at 18mph.

[Vashner]

This sucks not a single media at Cozumel.

Where is Bill Clinton? At a beach in Asia?

[Manu20]

Hurricane Wilma officially made landfall Monday morning at 6:30 EDT very close to Cape Romano, Fla., which is about 20 miles west of the Everglades and just to the south of Naples, Fla. Wilma was a Category 3 hurricane as she made landfall. Some peak wind gusts include: 134 mph at Ft. Jefferson, 127 mph at Fowly Rocks, 123 mph at Cudjoe Key, 121 mph at Naples, 111 mph at Miami, 100 mph at Ft. Myers Beach; and 101 mph at Sombrero Key. Sustained winds reached 101 mph at Fowery Rocks, 87 mph at Sombreo Key Lighthouse, and 79 mph at Naples Pier. The lowest pressure recorded at land was 28.12 inches at Everglades City. At 11 a.m. EDT, Wilma was still a Category 2 hurricane with sustained winds of 105 mph. The storm was centered near West Palm Beach and was moving to the northeast at 25 mph. Wilma will continue to pick up forward speed and move off the Atlantic coast of Florida around noon today. From there Wilma will race north-northeast toward Nova Scotia, Canada, by midweek.

[MannyIsGod]

I don't know why they expected a catagory 1 storm. You guys can think Wilma for the cooler morning today. The circulation around that storm was so strong it helped pull down even more cold air.

The way this storm is going to form over the atlantic is going to be really interesting. Alpha is going to be obsorbed somehow and its going to get form up with the trough. Sucks for people out in the middle of the ocean.

[grjr]

I don't know why they expected a catagory 1 storm.

I was thinking the same thing. Storms have been blowing up in the Gulf all season and now they expect this one to weaken? They're lucky it was going so fast or it probably would have got to Cat 4.

Have the Gulf and Carribbean water temperatures never been this high to where it confuses all the forecasters?

[spurs=bling]

I don't know why they expected a catagory 1 storm.


not me i had said a Cat 2 or 3 for FL

[Vashner]

Well Isla Mujeres is wiped out. Like 99% gone..
Cozumel is really fooked up. The cruise ship docks are gone. It looks 10x worse than the Cancun pics.

Here is a pic I took downtown last July. And one from almost the same spot
from Yahoonews wilma pics.
http://home.satx.rr.com/krograth/images/cozport01.jpg
http://home.satx.rr.com/krograth/images/cozport02.jpg

[MannyIsGod]

Wow. That sucks man, that area has gotten hammered this year. Thankfully the season is finally coming to a close.