Spuirs lead in WARP from Injury

[Rummpd]

Layn @layns5
.@kpelton is there a metric that measures cumulative injury impact for a team in a given season, like expected Win Shares Added multiplied by games missed? I’m trying to figure how relatively depressed I should be as a Jazz fan. #PeltonMailbag


I [Pelton - ESPN) track this as part of my injury database using my wins above replacement player (WARP) metric. Because of the use of replacement level, this often yields very different measurements than games lost to injury -- which treats an MVP candidate and a 15th man the same -- or even multiplying games lost by average minutes per game. Through Friday, here are the teams that have lost the most WARP to injury:


Most WARP lost to injury

GAMES Minutes WARP
San Antonio 143 (24) 3005 (24) 9.3
Golden State 114 (15) 2146 (15) 7.6
Houston 111 (14) 2025 (13) 6.7
Milwaukee 117 (16) 2891 (22) 5.7
LA Clippers 150 (26) 4457 (30) 5.6

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/22237763/kevin-pelton-weekly-mailbag-including-cleveland-abysmal-defense

[spursistan]

Just seems like one of those years.

Shame the Spurs are not in good tanking spot. Would be depressing to see this team eventually getting bounced in the first round while still not accomplishing anything out of this season..

[Seventyniner]

Good find. He says that league average WARP from injury is 3.3, so I think that means the Spurs would have 6 more wins if the entire league was fully healthy and everyone performed equal to their projections. 38-13 would be a pretty solid record at this point.

[K...]

uh looks like all the top west teams have had issues so it isnt an absolution of the poor play

[Rummpd]

uh looks like all the top west teams have had issues so it isnt an absolution of the poor play

Very good analysis.

[SpurPadre]

Who the FUCK are the Spuirs, tbh?

[bklynspursfan]

uh looks like all the top west teams have had issues so it isnt an absolution of the poor play

None have had the amt of injuries we have

[Budkin]

Who the FUCK are the Spuirs, tbh?

https://scontent-dft4-3.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t31.0-8/977966_558493804201909_756161089_o.png?oh=d9006b8a 7f565623b040f66a8ce3a826&oe=5AE68141

[Hoops Czar]

Injuries doesn't seem to be slowing down GS or Houston but let's make some more excuse for why the Spurs can't beat the lower echelon of the NBA without some sort of divine intervention. #depth

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

Injuries doesn't seem to be slowing down GS or Houston but let's make some more excuse for why the Spurs can't beat the lower echelon of the NBA without some sort of divine intervention. #depth

Spurs are 23-6 or so against teams under .500, their problem is beating the better teams because they lack talent due to all the injuries.

I know you're just a troll, but once in a while you might try not to talk out of your ass.

[DPG21920]

Injuries doesn't seem to be slowing down GS or Houston but let's make some more excuse for why the Spurs can't beat the lower echelon of the NBA without some sort of divine intervention. #depth

Hi! DPG here. Hope all is well. Just wanted to point out that when James Harden missed time HOU lost 6 out of 7 games. so while I fully understand where you are coming from I would feel just awful if I didn’t point that out privately to you as to save you from someone publicly making you look like your position was not well researched.

Oh, oh, and with regards to Golden State. They do have 4 All-Stars, so yes while they have had Curry miss some time they really do have a lot of talent to help make up for an MVP-level player missing some time. But again, really good to hear from you and you look amazing.

[TD 21]

Okay, then what's the excuse for Clippers being decimated by injury and literally starting 3 G-Leaguers in a bunch of games at various points (including 2 together), yet still ranking 9th offensively? Before you point out Williams playing out of his mind, so has Aldridge.

They're not the only ones. There's plenty of teams playing with multiple key players in and out, yet having far less difficulty offensively than this one.

[DPG21920]

Okay, then what's the excuse for Clippers being decimated by injury and literally starting 3 G-Leaguers in a bunch of games at various points (including 2 together), yet still ranking 9th offensively? Before you point out Williams playing out of his mind, so has Aldridge.

They're not the only ones. There's plenty of teams playing with multiple key players in and out, yet having far less difficulty offensively than this one.

Um, aren’t the Clipper behind SA in the standings? Isn’t Kawhi appreciably better than anyone LAC has missed? I mean, it seems pretty obvious to me.

[TD 21]

Um, aren’t the Clipper behind SA in the standings? Isn’t Kawhi appreciably better than anyone LAC has missed? I mean, it seems pretty obvious to me.

I'm talking specifically about offense, which is clearly more important than defense in today's league. You can't be a sieve like Cavaliers and contend, but you could get away with an average - above average one and do so. The same can't be said for offense.

The blind faith and casual types love citing the 3rd seed, while ignoring that they're only 5 up in the loss column on Clippers, who are 9th. With the colossal struggle it is for them to break 90 in most games, there's a good chance that spread continues to shrink.

[DPG21920]

I'm talking specifically about offense, which is clearly more important than defense in today's league. You can't be a sieve like Cavaliers and contend, but you could get away with an average - above average one and do so. The same can't be said for offense.

The blind faith and casual types love citing the 3rd seed, while ignoring that they're only 5 up in the loss column on Clippers, who are 9th. With the colossal struggle it is for them to break 90 in most games, there's a good chance that spread continues to shrink.

People love to cite that “close to the 9 seed” stat like it’s a knock on SA :lol. SA is closer to the 2nd seed in terms of wins than they are the 6th seed.

[TD 21]

People love to cite that “close to the 9 seed” stat like it’s a knock on SA :lol. SA is closer to the 2nd seed in terms of wins than they are the 6th seed.

Because they've played I believe the 2nd or 3rd most games. The loss column is more important for winning teams. It may not show in their seeding yet and most of you are too dense to look below the surface of anything, but they've been trending down for a while now.

[DPG21920]

Because they've played I believe the 2nd or 3rd most games. The loss column is more important for winning teams. It may not show in their seeding yet and most of you are too dense to look below the surface of anything, but they've been trending down for a while now.

Sure, they have started to struggle but teams like the Mighty Wolves who are healthy can’t catch them. When HOU lost Harden they lost 6 of 7. Wolves healthy keep dropping games.

I mean, SA even with the injuries have led by double digits in many games. This is the nba. If you are missing big time talent you aren’t going to blow teams out. People act like SA should have a point differential on par with the top 3 teams with Kawhi out. It’s ridiculous.

[Hoops Czar]

Hi! DPG here. Hope all is well. Just wanted to point out that when James Harden missed time HOU lost 6 out of 7 games. so while I fully understand where you are coming from I would feel just awful if I didn’t point that out privately to you as to save you from someone publicly making you look like your position was not well researched.

Oh, oh, and with regards to Golden State. They do have 4 All-Stars, so yes while they have had Curry miss some time they really do have a lot of talent to help make up for an MVP-level player missing some time. But again, really good to hear from you and you look amazing.

What's up DPG. Always a pleasure. Houston was 4-3 without Harden and two of those losses were to GS and the Clippers, not the Hawks, Lakers, Pacers or 76ers. About that lack of research.....

One of CP3 or Harden have played at all times and Houston is on cruise control with the second seed. LMA, also an All Star, has played in all but two games this season and the Spurs are 12-15 on the road with the 4th weakest schedule in the NBA.

Also, Thompson and Green ae not typical All-Stars. They just happen to be playing for the best team in the league. Nobody would even care to know who they are let alone name them all-stars if they played for any other franchise.

[DPG21920]

What's up DPG. Always a pleasure. Houston was 4-3 without Harden and two of those losses were to GS and the Clippers, not the Hawks, Lakers, Pacers or 76ers. About that lack of research.....

One of CP3 or Harden have played at all times and Houston is on cruise control with the second seed. LMA, also an All Star, has played in all but two games this season and the Spurs are 12-15 on the road with the 4th weakest schedule in the NBA.

Also, Thompson and Green ae not typical All-Stars. They just happen to be playing for the best team in the league. Nobody would even care to know who they are let alone name them all-stars if they played for any other franchise.

Sorry, meant to say with Harden/CP3 out. Saying they lost 6 of 7 in a stretch when they missed one of those guys (or even mostly healthy) still paints the same picture.

[K...]

I think a fair interpretation is that unlike other top teams we don't have middle talent. So when el hefe goes, it's ugly.

[phxspurfan]

Poor GS...so many injuries and yet they just keep winning with their 4 all stars...

this seems BS bc Kerr has been resting guys openly all year and still able to play 2-3 all stars every night

[TD 21]

Sure, they have started to struggle but teams like the Mighty Wolves who are healthy can’t catch them. When HOU lost Harden they lost 6 of 7. Wolves healthy keep dropping games.

I mean, SA even with the injuries have led by double digits in many games. This is the nba. If you are missing big time talent you aren’t going to blow teams out. People act like SA should have a point differential on par with the top 3 teams with Kawhi out. It’s ridiculous.

It's been going on a long time. Basically, they rode a rejuvenated Aldridge and fattened up on a soft early schedule, holding on until the cavalry arrived. When it did and they found out Leonard still wasn't right, it demoralized them and they haven't been the same since.

Again, who said that? Think all people want to see, is them be able to competently run an offense and not look like they're stuck in '98.

[SAGirl]

It's been going on a long time. Basically, they rode a rejuvenated Aldridge and fattened up on a soft early schedule, holding on until the cavalry arrived. When it did and they found out Leonard still wasn't right, it demoralized them and they haven't been the same since.

Again, who said that? Think all people want to see, is them be able to competently run an offense and not look like they're stuck in '98.
There might be some truth to the demoralized factor ... some games it's more evident.