2018 Texas primary

[RandomGuy]

https://my.lwv.org/sites/default/files/2018_primary_votersguide.pdf

League of Women's voters puts out a reasonable questionnaire each year, on which I base my vote.

I almost never vote for anyone who does not reply to the League, I figure if you can't be bothered to respond to them, you don't need to be in office.

My picks:
Gov Lupe Valdez
Lt Gov Mike Collier
Comptroller: Joi Chevalier (very sharp written response, stands out)
Land Office Tex Morgan (another hands down response)
RailRoad Commisioner: Roman McCallen

Most of the rest are running opposed in primaries.
13th district Dori Contreras who answered, where her opponent did not. Easy call there.

JUSTICE, 14TH COURT OF APPEALS, PLACE 3
Joseph R. Willie II (hit on more issues relevant to office than his opponent, including indigent representation and fair pay for public defenders)

JUSTICE, 14TH COURT OF APPEALS, PLACE 8
Margaret “Meg” Poissant --better response in general, another one that touched on more issues, and more meaningfully than opponent

Anyhoo, have fun voting.

[koriwhat]

i might have to reregister to vote afterall... anything to keep that drug dealing pusher, that daddy got out of jail and is now DA, lahood out of office!

[vy65]

Those blurbs make the court of appeals judges sound horrific. "I would like to bring an African American perspective to the 14th Court of appeals." wtf does that even mean? There's an African American perspective to interpreting the rules of civil procedure? the civil practice and remedies code?

[vy65]

Michele Barber Chimene (D)

Background: I have 25 years experience as an appellate
attorney and am running for an appellate court. I have respect for
the parties and the law, and will follow the law unless the Constitution
dictates otherwise. Good listener and believes all persons r equal.

:lmao

[boutons_deux]

Lwv411.org

[RandomGuy]

Michele Barber Chimene (D)

Background: I have 25 years experience as an appellate
attorney and am running for an appellate court. I have respect for
the parties and the law, and will follow the law unless the Constitution
dictates otherwise. Good listener and believes all persons r equal.

:lmao

You caught that too?

Yeah, wouldn't vote for her, if her name was on my ballot.

I am not funky fresh. I am a grouchy old white guy.

.

[RandomGuy]

Michele Barber Chimene (D)

Background: I have 25 years experience as an appellate
attorney and am running for an appellate court. I have respect for
the parties and the law, and will follow the law unless the Constitution
dictates otherwise. Good listener and believes all persons r equal.

:lmao

In her defense, there may have been a charactor limit for some web input. I could see doing a quick, if juvenile edit to get in a full thought.

Still not getting my vote. That much experience as an attorney means you should be able to wordsmith better.

[Mark Celibate]

Texas Democrats are especially disgusting. Go shit up another state.

[RandomGuy]

Texas Democrats are especially disgusting. Go shit up another state.


turnout among Democrats is up 46 percent over the last midterm elections in 2014. For Republicans, meanwhile, turnout is basically flat.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/democratic-turnout-in-texas-up-for-nations-first-primary/2018/02/22/104982ec-1808-11e8-930c-45838ad0d77a_story.html?utm_term=.d5780c83e872

Suck it. That is a high enough percentage to flip my state representative from red to blue.

AND

Democrats have fielded candidates for way more races, and have more people running in the primary. We get a good field to choose from.

That said, the rich old white guy brigade is shitting bricks and trying to buy up as many places as possible to staunch the bleeding.

I can't think of a better way to piss us off more than by watching all that money trying to buy my state government over our votes.

Again:
Suck.
It.

[boutons_deux]

TX rurals aint going blue

Cruz wiil ouspend Beto and very probably crush him

Cant really conclude anything useful from primary turnout

[boutons_deux]

One Texas Board of Education primary result could spell a return to culture wars
https://www.texastribune.org/2018/02/23/texas-board-education-primary-could-spell-return-culture-wars/

[Reck]

Texas Democrats are especially disgusting. Go shit up another state.

As oposed to how great it is now with Cruz's types running your state into the ground and back to the 50s.

[RandomGuy]

TX rurals aint going blue

Cruz wiil ouspend Beto and very probably crush him

Cant really conclude anything useful from primary turnout

Beto has been to almost every single county in the state at this point, including some that haven't seen a Senate candidate since the 60's.

Rural probably won't go blue, unless heavily Hispanic, but state wide offices are a whole other ball game.

https://www.texasmonthly.com/politics/beto-orourke-polling-like-generic-democrat-can-that-make-him-threat/

Beto has nothing better to do than campaign, and no one really likes Cruz, as the article points out.

Long shot at this point, but still...
.

[Mark Celibate]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/democratic-turnout-in-texas-up-for-nations-first-primary/2018/02/22/104982ec-1808-11e8-930c-45838ad0d77a_story.html?utm_term=.d5780c83e872

Suck it. That is a high enough percentage to flip my state representative from red to blue.

AND

Democrats have fielded candidates for way more races, and have more people running in the primary. We get a good field to choose from.

That said, the rich old white guy brigade is shitting bricks and trying to buy up as many places as possible to staunch the bleeding.

I can't think of a better way to piss us off more than by watching all that money trying to buy my state government over our votes.

Again:
Suck.
It.
You’re the only one sucking it when your bull comes by, again you’re disgusting stop trying to turn Texas into California it’ll never happen.

[Reck]

You’re the only one sucking it when your bull comes by, again you’re disgusting stop trying to turn Texas into California it’ll never happen.

Yeah no. It will happen at some point. But not for a few years.

Hillary lost that state by 10 points instead of by 40. Texas can be won with just the big cities ala New York. Republicans always win the rural areas handily but the boroughts make up the difference and more.

Again, Texas is behind the times. The new generation will have the final say and the signs are there that it can flip.

[koriwhat]

Yeah no. It will happen at some point. But not for a few years.

Hillary lost that state by 10 points instead of by 40. Texas can be won with just the big cities ala New York. Republicans always win the rural areas handily but the boroughts make up the difference and more.

Again, Texas is behind the times. The new generation will have the final say and the signs are there that it can flip.

it'll eventually happen considering all the dipshits out in ATX.

[Mark Celibate]

Yeah no. It will happen at some point. But not for a few years.

Hillary lost that state by 10 points instead of by 40. Texas can be won with just the big cities ala New York. Republicans always win the rural areas handily but the boroughts make up the difference and more.

Again, Texas is behind the times. The new generation will have the final say and the signs are there that it can flip.
Trump pissed off the cuckservative Cruzlims and riled up a bunch of Hispanics who don’t normally vote and still won by 10 which is a huge margin

[RandomGuy]

Yeah no. It will happen at some point. But not for a few years.

Hillary lost that state by 10 points instead of by 40. Texas can be won with just the big cities ala New York. Republicans always win the rural areas handily but the boroughts make up the difference and more.

Again, Texas is behind the times. The new generation will have the final say and the signs are there that it can flip.

Not a matter of "if", but "when".

My kids are very, very pale compared to their classmates. My oldest will be eligible to vote in 2021.

[RandomGuy]

cuckity cuckity cuckity cuck cuck

:lol projecting fantasies on others

As I have said before, I have little doubt what the porn history in your browser looks like.

Too cute, but hey, you be you.

[Mark Celibate]

:lol projecting fantasies on others

As I have said before, I have little doubt what the porn history in your browser looks like.

Too cute, but hey, you be you.
Nope, I was told by other posters hat your wife posted or used to post here and that you guys would post about your cuckoldry.

[rjv]

https://my.lwv.org/sites/default/files/2018_primary_votersguide.pdf

League of Women's voters puts out a reasonable questionnaire each year, on which I base my vote.

I almost never vote for anyone who does not reply to the League, I figure if you can't be bothered to respond to them, you don't need to be in office.

My picks:
Gov Lupe Valdez
Lt Gov Mike Collier
Comptroller: Joi Chevalier (very sharp written response, stands out)
Land Office Tex Morgan (another hands down response)
RailRoad Commisioner: Roman McCallen

Most of the rest are running opposed in primaries.
13th district Dori Contreras who answered, where her opponent did not. Easy call there.

JUSTICE, 14TH COURT OF APPEALS, PLACE 3
Joseph R. Willie II (hit on more issues relevant to office than his opponent, including indigent representation and fair pay for public defenders)

JUSTICE, 14TH COURT OF APPEALS, PLACE 8
Margaret “Meg” Poissant --better response in general, another one that touched on more issues, and more meaningfully than opponent

Anyhoo, have fun voting.

thanks for the link. it was helpful.

[RandomGuy]

Nope, I was told by other posters hat your wife posted or used to post here and that you guys would post about your cuckoldry.

Nope. Sorry. She said X, they saw Y, and it is as true now as it never was.

As I said, projection. We are very boring people, but it is always funny to see people think we are not. :lol

[RandomGuy]

thanks for the link. it was helpful.

You are welcome.

For those who haven't clicked: League gives both parties' candidates views.

[pgardn]

One Texas Board of Education primary result could spell a return to culture wars


https://www.texastribune.org/2018/02/23/texas-board-education-primary-could-spell-return-culture-wars/

Now boots got the goods.

I am very concerned about the History textbook selection.
I have a friend who teaches history who said the redo ~8 years ago was horrible. But he teaches the honors kids so he does not even use it. I get the feeling most of the HS history teachers that are hired go with real historians. Not what some legislators or winger nut jobs want. They actually read something other than Twitter and 4chan.

The slavery thing in Texas that the textbooks tried to dance around was laughable.

Allrighty then boots. Good deal.

[RandomGuy]

In the first three days of early voting, 107 of the Pct 336 voters have cast a ballot. Twenty-four of those have come from the "student addresses"

Our voter registration efforts were concentrated in student areas, with yours truly handing out a few of them in a blockwalking effort or two.

Micro-evidence, but our local strategy to bump up Democratic party vote tallies includes the local University.

Looks like that effort is starting to pay off. If we can get them to vote in the primaries... we can get more to vote in the general.

BAM.

[boutons_deux]

O'Rourke stomps Cruz in latest round of fundraising

https://www.texastribune.org/2018/02/23/ted-cruz-beto-orourke-fundraising-texas/

[monosylab1k]

O'Rourke stomps Cruz in latest round of fundraising

https://www.texastribune.org/2018/02/23/ted-cruz-beto-orourke-fundraising-texas/

Meh, the last time a candidate’s only claim to fame was fundraising accomplishments, it was Bernie. Cruz is winning.

[boutons_deux]

Cruz is winning.

Probably. Cruz is sign of what a shit hole TX is.

[RandomGuy]

Meh, the last time a candidate’s only claim to fame was fundraising accomplishments, it was Bernie. Cruz is winning.


On Tuesday, 51,249 Texans appeared to vote in primaries in 15 of the state's largest counties, according to the Dallas Morning News. That number is only slightly below the 55,931 who turned out on the first day of early voting in the 2016 presidential primaries. Though a drop is to be expected when comparing presidential primaries to midterm primaries, what's notable is that Texas saw a steep rise in turnout compared to the 2014 midterm elections, when only 38,441 Texans turned out to vote during the first day of early voting.

This major increase in voter turnout seemed to be predominantly due to heightened enthusiasm among Democrats. Although Republicans only saw a 16 percent increase in their first-day early voting turnout since the 2014 midterm elections, Democrats saw an increase of 51 percent.

https://www.salon.com/2018/02/22/texas-democrats-are-emboldened-and-theyre-turning-out-more-than-republicans/

[RandomGuy]

Meh, the last time a candidate’s only claim to fame was fundraising accomplishments, it was Bernie. Cruz is winning.


Across the state's 15 largest counties, Democratic turnout is up over the first two days of voting, compared with 2014, according to numbers collected by the Texas Secretary of State's Office.

Among all voters who've cast ballots so far, both in person and by mail, Democrats have a small lead, with 76,523 people taking part in the Democratic primary, compared with 69,362 Republicans. Compared with the last midterm election, however, those numbers signal a huge swing. In 2014, at the end of the second day of early voting in the primary, 75,764 voters had participated in the GOP primary, compared with 44,463 who'd cast ballots in the Democratic primary.

Primary don't mean much, other than a whiff of what is to come.
http://www.dallasobserver.com/news/texas-democrats-are-showing-up-to-vote-10402287

Rural areas will reverse some of the lead in the cities, but still. I am guardedly optimistic.

[RandomGuy]

Senate Key Race alert: Texas is no longer Solid Republican

https://www.cnn.com/2018/02/27/politics/texas-senate-race-rating-likely-republican/index.html

[RandomGuy]

You’re the only one sucking it when your bull comes by, again you’re disgusting stop trying to turn Texas into California it’ll never happen.


Texas Democrats have outpaced their Republican counterparts in early voting for the March 6 primary, and it has people like Gov. Greg Abbott sounding worried.

In deep red Texas, voters in the 15 largest counties cast more than 184,000 votes in the Democratic primary and more than 166,000 in the Republican primary, according to tallies of in-person voters through Monday.

This is just the fucking primary, bitch.

November will be Texas Democrats first real chance to give Trump the middle finger.

Suck.
It.

[RandomGuy]

Revolt of the librarians
Theda Skocpol’s new work on anti-Trump activists
New findings from a far-sighted political scientist

....
In fact, Ms Skocpol and Ms Putnam find that the new activists are a rather moderate bunch. Unlike Momentum, the movement that supports Labour's Jeremy Corbyn in Britain, they do not want to sweep away capitalism and replace it with something more just. They are disproportionately female: about 70% of the participants and most of the leadership of local Indivisible outposts are women, according to the authors. "The metropolitan advocates to whom the national media turn to explain the 'newly energised grassroots' at times exaggerate the left-progressive focus of the activists underway and overestimate their own importance in coordinating it," Ms Skocpol and Ms Putnam write. "This will not look like a far-left reinvention of Tea Partiers or a continuation of Bernie 2016. It will look like retired librarians rolling their eyes at the present state of affairs, and then taking charge." Any political movement that promises to give more power to librarians is OK with your blogger.

One result of all this, the authors predict, is a speeding up of the renewal in the Democratic Party. In a two-party system, opposition parties tend to eventually renew themselves while out of power. But this process can take a really long time. When President Barack Obama left office, the Democrats were by some estimates at their lowest ebb in state politics since the 1920s. "At the current pace, it seems likely that the pop-up leaders and grassroots groups of 2017 will, by 2019, have repopulated the local layer of the Democratic Party in much of the country," the authors reckon. If that were to happen, it would be an extraordinarily speedy turnaround. The next step is for this movement to find a leader that it can get behind, too.
https://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2018/02/revolt-librarians
------------------------

BOOM.

Mirrors what I have been seeing first-hand, from a very credible source.

A moderate wave of sensible women running for office, which I think is pretty cool.

[RandomGuy]

Meh, the last time a candidate’s only claim to fame was fundraising accomplishments, it was Bernie. Cruz is winning.

Early vote totals for Texas’s midterm election primaries are looking good for Democrats, who are showing extremely high levels of enthusiasm. Democratic turnout has increased by 90 percent compared to the 2014 midterms and is even above the 2016 presidential election year levels. Republican early voter turnout is up by 17 percent from 2014 but still lagging behind 2016 turnout.
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/3/1/17066848/texas-primary-early-voting-turnout


More than 602,000 voters had cast ballots in the state’s largest counties in either the Democratic or Republican primaries through Wednesday. That does not count Thursday’s totals that were not available late Thursday, or Friday’s, when polls will again be open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Four years ago, fewer than 600,000 people voted in the entire early voting season.

Harris County has also seen a new record. More than 116,000 people have voted early or by mail already with two days remaining to add to that total. Four years ago, just 105,508 people in Harris voted during the entire early voting period.

Democrats represent a major reason for the records and have been out-voting Republicans since the start of early voting on Feb. 20. There have been 25,000 more Democratic ballots than Republicans have cast. That is a big change from the last two gubernatorial election cycles when Republicans dramatically outvoted Democrats in the primaries by well over 100,000 in each year.

Long way to November, but still.

[monosylab1k]

Early vote totals for Texas’s midterm election primaries are looking good for Democrats, who are showing extremely high levels of enthusiasm. Democratic turnout has increased by 90 percent compared to the 2014 midterms and is even above the 2016 presidential election year levels. Republican early voter turnout is up by 17 percent from 2014 but still lagging behind 2016 turnout.
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/3/1/17066848/texas-primary-early-voting-turnout



Long way to November, but still.

It would be cool to see that scumbag Cruz voted out, and Beto is a terrific candidate, but I remain pessimistic.

[RandomGuy]

The consequences of this disparity probably won’t end with the primary election on March 6. Based on previous elections, we know that increased Democratic participation in the primaries means greater Democratic turnout in the general election. The same isn’t true for Republican voters, who have a record of steady turnout regardless of primary participation.


So where is this Democratic wave coming from?

Surges in early voting can usually be attributed to interest among heavily partisan voters, but the turnout this cycle points to an interesting trend. More than half the voters who have cast ballots in the Democratic primary in Harris County have little to no history of voting in other Democratic primaries. That’s not to say these voters are new to the process. Rather, they’re just voters who skip the primary and turn out in the general election.

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/opinion/outlook/article/Primary-turnout-shows-a-blue-wave-aimed-at-Texas-12718475.php

[RandomGuy]

It would be cool to see that scumbag Cruz voted out, and Beto is a terrific candidate, but I remain pessimistic.

Dunno. CNN shifted the race from "GOP lock" to "likely GOP".

Once the primary settles out and the general gets underway, the game is afoot, and we will have a better idea.

Oroarke is pushing hard in places that Texas Senatorial candidates rarely go, i.e. everywhere. Senator is a statewide office, so even votes in places that normally lean heavily GOP count. Get people to turn out there, and that nullifies to some extent the normal GOP advantage in rural areas.

I am going to do more blockwalks, phone banks, and I will probably take the day off to drive fellow Democrats to the polls.

Even so, I would agree with CNN's assessment. More likely than not Cruz will be re-elected, but that margin is going to be narrow. Two more years of aging white conservatives dying off, Trump fucking up, and new young progressives showing up to vote, and Texas will be purple.

[boutons_deux]

It would be cool to see that scumbag Cruz voted out, and Beto is a terrific candidate, but I remain pessimistic.

yep, Beto has out-raised Krazy this year, but Krazy already had some $Ms in reserve.

An apparently truly progressive Dem Senator from TX? IBIWISI

[AaronY]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/democratic-turnout-in-texas-up-for-nations-first-primary/2018/02/22/104982ec-1808-11e8-930c-45838ad0d77a_story.html?utm_term=.d5780c83e872

Suck it. That is a high enough percentage to flip my state representative from red to blue.

AND

Democrats have fielded candidates for way more races, and have more people running in the primary. We get a good field to choose from.

That said, the rich old white guy brigade is shitting bricks and trying to buy up as many places as possible to staunch the bleeding.

I can't think of a better way to piss us off more than by watching all that money trying to buy my state government over our votes.

Again:
Suck.
It.
Lmao turning Texas blue

[RandomGuy]

Lmao turning Texas blue

It's close than you seem to think.

As I have already said, 2018 is still a bit early, but Dems have a lot of upside on turnout, given historically low turnout rates. About the same number of Republicans vote every time, no matter what election/primary is in the offing.

If Democrats in Texas voted at the same rates that Republicans do, it would be blue already.


According to the Pew Research Center, the number of of Hispanics eligible to vote has increased from 19 million in 2008 to 27 million today, and is increasing by about 1 million every year. Growth is expected to continue at this pace for decades, leaving many of the states mentioned above with a plurality or even majority of voters who are Hispanic. Today, at slightly more than 28 percent, Texas has the second highest share of eligible voters who are Hispanic of any state in the nation, and is the only state with a sizable Hispanic population that isn't blue or purple. And its share of Hispanic voters is far higher than many of the states that have already drifted towards the Democrats, and even higher than deep-blue California.
https://www.usnews.com/opinion/articles/2016-10-27/gop-should-worry-about-texas-turning-democratic


But another demographic trend that is bringing dramatic change to American politics should also concern Republicans about the future of Texas – the rise of the millennials. Since 2008, the number of voting age millennials in America has increased from 35 million to 70 million. To put this in perspective, the average Congressional district now has 160,000 millennials, with 80,000 of them having turned voting age since Barack Obama was elected president. Like Hispanics, millennials have been voting about two to one Democratic. Assuming a 50 percent turnout rate, these new voters represent 6 million net new votes for Democrats since the 2008 election, an amount equal to about 10 percent of Obama's 2012 vote and a million more votes than Obama's margin over Romney. This is no small thing.

Young people of all races are remaining liberal, while older conservatives die off.

(shrugs)

Change happens. Not sure why well-documented demographic trends surprise you. Give it another couple of years. The GOP is on an unsustainable death spiral in Texas.

[RandomGuy]

Texas has a lot of millennials. By the 2018 election, Texas will have the fourth highest percentage of millennials of any state in the country, and a higher percentage than any large or medium sized state. Coupled with the growth of the Hispanic community in Texas, this millennial surge has created dramatic demographic change and added millions more Democratic voters. In that new CBS/YouGov poll, Trump was only getting 27 percent with voters aged 18 to 29 – in Texas!

Remarkably, Texas has a higher percentage of both millennials and Hispanics today than California, suggesting that with a significant investment in the coming years Texas could indeed follow California, Colorado, Florida, Nevada, New Mexico and now Arizona from red to blue.

[RandomGuy]

Based solely on demographic analyses of Texas, it has looked like the Democrats might be competitive in the presidential election by 2024 and perhaps have an outright advantage by 2028. Those estimates don’t take into account the possibility that racial, ethnic or gender groups might change their voting preferences. If whites vote even more heavily Republican or Latinos become more like swing voters, then Texas may remain reliably red for a longer period of time. But if the reverse happens, or if, say, white women move sharply away from the GOP in reaction to school shootings and the #MeToo movement, then Texas could be competitive in 2020.

https://washingtonmonthly.com/2018/02/22/texas-democrats-are-eager-to-vote/

Seems to track the data I have seen elsewhere.

[AaronY]

It's close than you seem to think.

As I have already said, 2018 is still a bit early, but Dems have a lot of upside on turnout, given historically low turnout rates. About the same number of Republicans vote every time, no matter what election/primary is in the offing.

If Democrats in Texas voted at the same rates that Republicans do, it would be blue already.

https://www.usnews.com/opinion/articles/2016-10-27/gop-should-worry-about-texas-turning-democratic



Young people of all races are remaining liberal, while older conservatives die off.

(shrugs)

Change happens. Not sure why well-documented demographic trends surprise you. Give it another couple of years. The GOP is on an unsustainable death spiral in Texas.
Lol

[Chris]

969550431423746048

[CosmicCowboy]

I question two basic assumptions you guys are making.

1) hispanics are automatically democrats.

2) liberal political inclination of milleniums will be cast in stone as they age, get real jobs, have families, and pay taxes. The conservative baby boomers you guys hate were liberal as hell in the 60s and 70s. Assuming that was an abberation is not necessarily logical.

[CosmicCowboy]

Btw, I despise cruz and Abbott. I think Texas will move towards the center politically as time passes but not jump off the liberal cliff.

[Spurminator]

When I did early voting yesterday the turnout was 99% Democrat. But I'm hesitant to assume anything from that. Republican disinterest in the primary doesn't necessarily mean disinterest in the election.

[Spurminator]

I question two basic assumptions you guys are making.

1) hispanics are automatically democrats.

2) liberal political inclination of milleniums will be cast in stone as they age, get real jobs, have families, and pay taxes. The conservative baby boomers you guys hate were liberal as hell in the 60s and 70s. Assuming that was an abberation is not necessarily logical.

On #2 I think you have to differentiate Reagan/Bush conservatism with Trump/Abbott conservatism. While real world job experience may push someone towards fiscal conservatism (and moral conservatism to some extent when they start families), I don't see it leading to ethno-nationalistic paranoia so much.

[CosmicCowboy]

On #2 I think you have to differentiate Reagan/Bush conservatism with Trump/Abbott conservatism. While real world job experience may push someone towards fiscal conservatism (and moral conservatism to some extent when they start families), I don't see it leading to ethno-nationalistic paranoia so much.
I somewhat agree but think Trump, Abbott, Cruz etc. are temporary abberations. I think there will be a moderating move towards the center but not a dramatic pendulum swing to the left.

[CosmicCowboy]

Actually, despite the nuttiness Trump is hardly a right wing conservative.

[Spurminator]

I somewhat agree but think Trump, Abbott, Cruz etc. are temporary abberations.

I hope you're right.

[ElNono]

I question two basic assumptions you guys are making.

1) hispanics are automatically democrats.

2) liberal political inclination of milleniums will be cast in stone as they age, get real jobs, have families, and pay taxes. The conservative baby boomers you guys hate were liberal as hell in the 60s and 70s. Assuming that was an abberation is not necessarily logical.

About 2), Gen X (pre-millenials) are largely democrat, and they have aged, tbh...

I don't think millenials are set in stone yet, and I actually see the post-millenials being up for grabs...

What's more puzzling is the general lack of Gen X candidates from democrats...

[TeyshaBlue]

Don't discount the Democratic Machine shooting itself in the foot. It's not unlikely.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/04/politics/texas-democrats-house-primary-drama/index.html

[Reck]

Don't discount the Democratic Machine shooting itself in the foot. It's not unlikely.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/04/politics/texas-democrats-house-primary-drama/index.html

The good old Bernie wing about to shit on their own nest again. :lol

[TeyshaBlue]

Yup. :lol

[RandomGuy]

Lol


The early vote numbers out of Texas are amazing....
Texas Primary— through day 9 of Early Voting in 2018 vs through day 9 of 2014:

Harris County: 14% more GOP votes cast in 2018; 190% more Democratic votes cast

Dallas County: 15% fewer GOP votes cast; 94% more Democratic votes cast

Tarrant County: 1% more GOP votes cast; 63% more Democratic votes cast

Bexar County: 1% fewer GOP votes cast; 76% more Democratic votes cast

Travis County: 28% more GOP votes cast; 155% more Democratic votes cast

Collin County: 44% more GOP votes cast; 255% more Democratic votes cast

Denton County: 19% more GOP votes cast; 273% more Democratic votes cast

El Paso County: 17% more GOP votes cast; 70% more Democratic votes cast

Fort Bend County: 36% more GOP votes cast; 257% more Democratic votes cast

Hidalgo County: 17% more GOP votes cast; 7% more Democratic votes cast (Hidalgo Dems lead the pack, though, in EV turnout as a % of their county’s total number of registered voters— 7.52% of Hidalgo voters have cast a Democratic ballot during early voting so far— that’s the highest rate for either party in early voting this election so far).

*These 10 populous counties represent 57% of TX’s total number of registered voters.

[RandomGuy]

I question two basic assumptions you guys are making.

1) hispanics are automatically democrats.

2) liberal political inclination of milleniums will be cast in stone as they age, get real jobs, have families, and pay taxes. The conservative baby boomers you guys hate were liberal as hell in the 60s and 70s. Assuming that was an abberation is not necessarily logical.

Trump is pushing Hispanics into the Democratic party. If this is over your head... (shrugs) you aren't paying attention. The most ardent, activist Democrats I personally know are ALL female Hispanics.

Data shows that Millennials are not becoming more conservative at the same rates that Boomers did.

These assumptions are based on facts (see articles posted if you aren't too scared of reading things that you won't see on Fox "News")

[RandomGuy]

About 2), Gen X (pre-millenials) are largely democrat, and they have aged, tbh...

I don't think millenials are set in stone yet, and I actually see the post-millenials being up for grabs...

What's more puzzling is the general lack of Gen X candidates from democrats...

That has been the hollowing out of the Democratic party.

That is what is changing. See Angies List for Gen X candidates, and there are a LOT of women.

https://www.emilyslist.org/

Emilys list signed up a few hundred women candidates total in 2015 and 2016.

They signed up almost 34,000 since President Pussygrabber got elected.

Progressive women tend to be moderate (see Economist article), and will peel Republican women voters away form the GOP here and there.

[RandomGuy]

Lmao turning Texas blue


A surge in Democrats on the ballot

It's not just an uptick in Democratic voters happening in Texas, but an increase in candidates putting their names on the ballot, too. Democrats are fielding a modern-day record number of candidates across the state. There are 111 U.S. House candidates running for the minority party, and they are spread across all 36 Texas congressional districts — the first time that's happened in 25 years, and a departure from two years ago when Democrats didn't run candidates in eight seats.

On a state legislative level, Democrats have candidates in 132 of the 150 state House districts and in 14 of the 15 state Senate districts up for election this year. That includes four Senate districts where Democrats didn't field candidates in 2014 or 2012, and 20 new House districts where they didn't have candidates in either 2016, 2014 or 2012.

Cal Jillson, a political science professor at Southern Methodist University, said that the Democratic surge is even more impressive given that it's usually GOP voters, not Democrats, who have been reliable in non-presidential years.

"It's one word — enthusiasm. In a midterm election like this, what you normally expect to see is the Republicans' primary turnout might be twice what the Democratic turnout is, so to have the Democrats even with, and even slightly ahead, of Republicans in this midterm election is really extraordinary," Jillson said.

https://www.npr.org/2018/03/04/590313279/ahead-of-texas-primary-early-signs-of-a-2018-democratic-surge

[Blake]

http://www.usmessageboard.com/attachments/texas-jpg.180313/

[RandomGuy]

http://www.usmessageboard.com/attachments/texas-jpg.180313/

http://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/earlyvoting/2018/mar2.shtml

Interesting.

SPLAT that into a spreadsheet... sort.. and:

Democratic primary total votes cast in listed counties: 465,245 52.5%

Republican primary total votes case in listed counties: 420,329 47.5%

This isn't a poll. This is a vote tally. A lot harder to wish away or pooh-pooh.

(percentages in picture check out, roughly)

[SnakeBoy]

I haven't seen Texas dems this excited since abortion Barbie was going to be gubner.

[RandomGuy]

I haven't seen Texas dems this excited since abortion Barbie was going to be gubner.

Most likely is that the GOP clings to power for one more election cycle.

Most likely was that Clinton was going to win the white house.

"most likely" does not mean "certain".

Trump is the best thing to happen to Democrats in my lifetime. I think his election will end up being a pyrrhic victory.

[Reck]

I haven't seen Texas dems this excited since abortion Barbie was going to be gubner.

Is that worry I sense? That has to count for something. lol

[AaronY]

https://www.npr.org/2018/03/04/590313279/ahead-of-texas-primary-early-signs-of-a-2018-democratic-surge
Lol'd

[AaronY]

I haven't seen Texas dems this excited since abortion Barbie was going to be gubner.
That lady was fucking hot. Perfect looking MILF tbh iirc

[SnakeBoy]

That lady was fucking hot. Perfect looking MILF tbh iirc

You need help boy

http://ilarge.lisimg.com/image/9160647/1118full-wendy-davis.jpg

[Reck]

You need help boy

http://ilarge.lisimg.com/image/9160647/1118full-wendy-davis.jpg

Thought he was talking about Laura Moser. She is indeed very hot, imo. Classic blondie.

[monosylab1k]

I haven't seen Texas dems this excited since abortion Barbie was going to be gubner.

DarrinS would definitely appreciate his understudy’s work herez

[AaronY]

You need help boy

http://ilarge.lisimg.com/image/9160647/1118full-wendy-davis.jpg
Her neck looks bad there but she looks fine otherwise for a 50 year old lady.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/f5/Wendy_Davis_2010.jpg/170px-Wendy_Davis_2010.jpg
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/bd/Wendy_Davis_by_Gage_Skidmore.jpg/220px-Wendy_Davis_by_Gage_Skidmore.jpg
http://c8.alamy.com/comp/DWDKE3/texas-state-senator-wendy-davis-speaks-on-her-education-platform-at-DWDKE3.jpg

[AaronY]

Lol isnt Snakeboy like 55 years old? no chance his wife looks better than that at that age

[AaronY]

https://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http%3A%2F%2Fthenewcivilrightsmoveme nt.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2013%2F06%2Fwendy-davis-TX-sebate-e1372184595671.jpg&imgrefurl=http%3A%2F%2Fthenewcivilrightsmovement.c om%2Fupdate-texas-state-senator-wendy-davis-has-taken-over-the-floor-of-the-texas-senate%2Fpolitics%2F2013%2F06%2F25%2F69569&docid=So2SrdTqXm9TpM&tbnid=waeqDNLh8rNK-M%3A&vet=10ahUKEwjMlemxo9bZAhUwzlkKHTbHCWUQMwhbKBwwHA.. i&w=572&h=328&bih=816&biw=1707&q=wendy%20davis%20texas&ved=0ahUKEwjMlemxo9bZAhUwzlkKHTbHCWUQMwhbKBwwHA&iact=mrc&uact=8http://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/thenewcivilrightsmovement/legacy_url/27923/wendy-davis-TX-sebate-e1372184595671.jpg?1403491203
http://epmgaa.media.clients.ellingtoncms.com/img/photos/2014/06/11/Senator_Wendy_Davis_t580.jpg?8f1b5874916776826eb17 d7e67de7278c987ca33

Does she have a texas accent? I've only ever seen her in some articles

[Spurminator]

Wendy Davis was a terrible candidate whose entire platform was whining about what Abbott said about her in his latest attack ad. She had no message.

[Chris]

Get out and vote tomorrow faggots.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Meh, the last time a candidate’s only claim to fame was fundraising accomplishments, it was Bernie. Cruz is winning.

I think you are mistaking Bernie touting fundraiser milestones with him actually winning the overall fundraising race. He did extremely well on small donations and online but at the end of the day all corporate dark money went to Clinton.

Sanders won a bunch of primaries early before the DNC turned on him. That is what lent his campaign legitimacy.

[dabom]

How is this shaping up? Gimme some answers boots.

[CosmicCowboy]

Honestly, the Republican primaries are pretty uninspiring. Basically I can no vote on Governor and Senator and there are literally 18 running for my US representative slot including a "terrorist hunter". Bleh.

[RandomGuy]

Honestly, the Republican primaries are pretty uninspiring. Basically I can no vote on Governor and Senator and there are literally 18 running for my US representative slot including a "terrorist hunter". Bleh.

One party rule does that to the party in power.

[baseline bum]

Cast my vote for Beto but voted against the make all mexicans citizens prop.

[rjv]

I haven't seen Texas dems this excited since abortion Barbie was going to be gubner.

i don't recall her moving the meter much at all. in fact, after checking it appears that republicans cast almost 800,000 more votes than Democrats in 2014.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

I question two basic assumptions you guys are making.

1) hispanics are automatically democrats.

2) liberal political inclination of milleniums will be cast in stone as they age, get real jobs, have families, and pay taxes. The conservative baby boomers you guys hate were liberal as hell in the 60s and 70s. Assuming that was an abberation is not necessarily logical.

The political split in the hispanic demographic is well known. No one is saying that it is homogenous. At the same time there is a reason that your preferred political establishment has been suppressing their vote for a long time now.

We've had this generational discussion before. When looking at the previous several generations, they did not flip like the Boomers did. It was mostly the male boomers too as the women are much more liberal than you guys.

It is completely logical to think there won't be a shift because it is the only thing you or anyone else can come up with. The preponderance of evidence over the last half dozen generations speaks a different story.

[CosmicCowboy]

The political split in the hispanic demographic is well known. No one is saying that it is homogenous. At the same time there is a reason that your preferred political establishment has been suppressing their vote for a long time now.

We've had this generational discussion before. When looking at the previous several generations, they did not flip like the Boomers did. It was mostly the male boomers too as the women are much more liberal than you guys.

It is completely logical to think there won't be a shift because it is the only thing you or anyone else can come up with. The preponderance of evidence over the last half dozen generations speaks a different story.

You love blaming everything on boomers but boomers and older are less than 20% of the population in Texas. Your premise that majority of younger generations in Texas dont vote conservatively is clearly flawed based on recent elections.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

You love blaming everything on boomers but boomers and older are less than 20% of the population in Texas. Your premise that majority of younger generations in Texas dont vote conservatively is clearly flawed based on recent elections.

You're saying that the demographics will change.

And I don't blame everything on the Boomers. I'm just saying that the Boomers controlled the electorate for decades are the demographic most responsible because of their selfish shortsighted voting habits. I am hardly exclusive in assigning blame though.

You don't even argue that but instead act haughty and generally irresponsible over the issue.

I've also predicted as you guys die off and the younger voters assert their majority things will begin to change. Let's see what happens this year before claiming victory, fattie.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

You love blaming everything on boomers but boomers and older are less than 20% of the population in Texas. Your premise that majority of younger generations in Texas dont vote conservatively is clearly flawed based on recent elections.

And support your claim that young people are disproportionately conservative relative to the rest of the state. Everything that I have read is that Texas youth vote at an extremely depressed rate relative to the state average while Boomers come out in droves.

[CosmicCowboy]

And support your claim that young people are disproportionately conservative relative to the rest of the state. Everything that I have read is that Texas youth vote at an extremely depressed rate relative to the state average while Boomers come out in droves.
Learn how to read, snowflake. I said younger than baby boomers, which should mean younger than 60.

[Chris]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DXpmD9yU8AASAd6.jpg

[Reck]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DXpmD9yU8AASAd6.jpg

wtf is a secede? :lol

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Learn how to read, snowflake. I said younger than baby boomers, which should mean younger than 60.

Support it, fattie.

[Chris]

wtf is a secede? :lol

His first name is Larry :lol

[CosmicCowboy]

wtf is a secede? :lol

He's an idiot.

[CosmicCowboy]

Support it, fattie.

Lol @you calling me fattie. You are a real tough guy hiding behind the internet. You wouldnt have the balls to say that to me in person.

[spurraider21]

oh look CC trying to big-time someone

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Lol @you calling me fattie. You are a real tough guy hiding behind the internet. You wouldnt have the balls to say that to me in person.

You're just mad because you are old and fat.

And it's also noted that your word remains shit and you cannot back up your claims.

in the meantime:


In the last presidential election, 24- to 34-year-olds made up just 12.4 percent of actual voters in Texas; 18- to 23-year-olds were a paltry 6.3 percent. The absence of millennials from the democratic process is particularly conspicuous when one considers that Texas is the second-youngest state in the country, behind only Utah.

https://www.texasmonthly.com/politics/while-were-young/

and


Generally speaking, Texas’s older population is much more likely to participate in elections than the young population, with the largest turnout from voters 65 and up. So while Texas is a young state, older Texans make up most of the vote.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/3/1/17066848/texas-primary-early-voting-turnout

Have fun eating shit, fatboy.

[CosmicCowboy]

You're just mad because you are old and fat.

And it's also noted that your word remains shit and you cannot back up your claims.

in the meantime:



https://www.texasmonthly.com/politics/while-were-young/

and



https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/3/1/17066848/texas-primary-early-voting-turnout

Have fun eating shit, fatboy.
So 15% of the population votes at a higher percentage rate than the other 85% so thats why republicans keep getting elected.

Yeah, right. Keep telling yourself that, loser.

[baseline bum]

LOL the antivaxer nut Nico LaHood went down last night :lmao

[boutons_deux]

LOL the antivaxer nut Nico LaHood went down last night :lmao

amazing, he didn't last long. His trademarks of greasy black hair slicked back and coatless in white-shirt and suspenders were silly.

[boutons_deux]

Texas Democrats Surge to Polls, in Show of Anti-Trump Sentiment

Texas Democrats surged to the polls (https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/texas-primary-election?action=click&module=In%20Other%20News&pgtype=Homepage&action=click&module=News&pgtype=Homepage)on Tuesday (https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/texas-primary-election?action=click&module=In%20Other%20News&pgtype=Homepage&action=click&module=News&pgtype=Homepage) in the first primary of 2018, demonstrating a wave of Trump-inspired energy, but also showcasing party divisions that have emerged at the outset of an otherwise promising midterm campaign.

Nearly 886,000 Texans cast ballots early in the state’s 15 most populous counties, the highest early-vote turnout in a nonpresidential election year in state history.

Republicans still cast more ballots over all thanks to their rural strength.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/07/us/politics/texas-primary-race-trump.html?partner=rss&emc=rss&mtrref=undefined

shitkicker/bubba/Bible-humping/low-ed/low-wage Texas is still a rural backwater shit hole demographically.

[CosmicCowboy]

LOL the antivaxer nut Nico LaHood went down last night :lmao

That was a bizarre race. Thomas J Henrys boy against George Soros's guy. Crazy that Soros is getting involved in local elections like that.

[boutons_deux]

the fucking Kock Bros get involved in fucking school board elections, but you rightwing assholes don't think that's "crazy".

[CosmicCowboy]

the fucking Kock Bros get involved in fucking school board elections, but you rightwing assholes don't think that's "crazy".

No, we just think you are crazy.

[RandomGuy]

So, I did a bit of number crunching using past results.

My projection for November, using early vote totals for governor as a proxy was:

1,000,000 votes for Democrats
1,400,000 votes for Republicans

... in the state wide races.

Which, oddly enough, got really close to the final primary totals, with most precincts reporting in.

More people will vote in the fall.
Democrats will almost certainly narrow that 400,000 difference. Trump will continue to alienate Republicans and independents, and that will keep Republicans from being overly enthusiastic. They will still vote in larger numbers than past elections, but have less room to get more people in, given their already high participation percentages.

Democrats will get to see a huge spike in enthusiasm, because we are running in a LOT of races in a LOT of places. Most of those candidates WILL lose, but Dems will pick up seats around the edges.

What will happen though, is that these races will draw out a LOT of Democrats to vote against Republicans, and a lot of moderate Republicans that are being shit on by their party will finally rebel against Trump.

That latter part is key. That introduces a +1/-1 scenario where that switch leads to a TWO vote swing. Getting more Democrats to show up is one thing, but the GOP losing moderates will be a death knell, if that happens.

To be clear: too early to say that will happen, and I view it as only a modest factor.

We have a 42/58 split in Texas currently, using the primaries as a rough guide. My sense is that will narrow in the fall, simply due to Democratic turn out being still higher, especially after months of real campaigning.

Republicans get to keep the statewide offices for now. 2020 is another matter. Two more years of disasterous Trump policies will bring about the collapse of the GOP as a national party. There is a very good chance, that the GOP will lose statewide Texas in 2020, with Texas going blue for the first time in decades. Trump will almost certainly be the last Republican president in my lifetime.

[baseline bum]

Trump will almost certainly be the last Republican president in my lifetime.

You don't plan on living more than another 10 years or so?

[Chucho]

You don't plan on living more than another 10 years or so?

:lol

[Chucho]

No, we just think you are crazy.

:lol

[Blake]

Trump will almost certainly be the last Republican president in my lifetime.

Cmon now

[rmt]

You don't plan on living more than another 10 years or so?

hahahaha - maybe he thinks people will always stay the same/won't want change.

[boutons_deux]

Rafael "Ted" Krazy Kristian Kruz attacked Beto for having a nickname

:lol

Then withdrew his attack

:lol :lol

[RandomGuy]

Cmon now

No way in hell that a Republican wins 2020.

After that, Texas finally goes blue/purple. Do the electoral math. California + New York + Texas = 41% of required electoral college votes for president.

I forget how many more new Democratic voters start entering the picture each year, but the trends are not going to favor Republicans, EVER after Trump's racist regime passes into history. People remember that shit.


https://www.npr.org/news/graphics/2013/07/hispanic-projections.jpg

[Chris]

No way in hell that a Republican wins 2020.

Bookmarking :lol

[RandomGuy]

https://www.npr.org/news/graphics/2013/07/hispanic-ages.jpg

UPDATE (7/11/13): Potter, the state demographer, clarified that 2023 is a conservative estimate for when the Hispanic population will become larger than the non-White Hispanic population. That estimate doesn't account for migration into the state. Other estimates predict the switch could occur as early as 2017, he said.

https://www.npr.org/sections/itsallpolitics/2013/07/03/198345561/texas-looming-hispanic-shift-explained-in-2-charts


Brookings analysis a few years ago lays it out, pay attention to scenario C:

https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/SOC2016report.pdf

It doesn't have Texas red, but Trump has changed the calculus, IMO, and accelerated the rise of the Democratic party in Texas. We will vote, and vote more often. No going back.

[RandomGuy]

Bookmarking :lol

Oh, I will call it now. Easy. The magic man in the sky wills it, right? :lol

[baseline bum]

No way in hell that a Republican wins 2020.

After that, Texas finally goes blue/purple. Do the electoral math. California + New York + Texas = 41% of required electoral college votes for president.

I forget how many more new Democratic voters start entering the picture each year, but the trends are not going to favor Republicans, EVER after Trump's racist regime passes into history. People remember that shit.


https://www.npr.org/news/graphics/2013/07/hispanic-projections.jpg

Texas going purple by 2020 is already a hell of a stretch, and your electoral math depends on it being blue. You have been talking about Texas turning blue since 2008 man and it's still as red as ever. Even if the demographic wave happens you're acting like the Koch brothers won't force the GOP to adjust?

[RandomGuy]

“The long-term challenge for Republicans remains unchanged: They still have to figure out how to appeal to the growing proportion of the electorate that is non- white and college-educated,” said GOP pollster Whit Ayres, who worked during the Republican primaries for Trump rival Marco Rubio, the Florida senator. “Trump managed to slip the punch for one election, but that changed nothing about the long-term challenge. For the Democrats … they have to [find] a substantive message that appeals beyond identity politics, and they haven’t figured that out yet.”

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/05/trump-2016-election/528519/

Even so, blue-collar whites’ continued decline in the electorate, including in the states where they are most critical, reaffirms the concerns of Trump’s GOP critics that he is defining the party in a manner that wins over those voters at too high a price: the alienation of white-collar whites and minorities, two groups that are growing in number. “Nothing has repealed the long-term demographic trends in the electorate,” Ayres said. “What Trump did was lock us more completely into a declining portion of the electorate at the cost of an increasing portion of the electorate.”

[Chris]

Oh, I will call it now. Easy. The magic man in the sky wills it, right? :lol

double down with the religion smack :lol

[AaronY]

Trump will almost certainly be the last Republican president in my lifetime.
Lmao

[RandomGuy]

Texas going purple by 2020 is already a hell of a stretch, and your electoral math depends on it being blue. You have been talking about Texas turning blue since 2008 man and it's still as red as ever. Even if the demographic wave happens you're acting like the Koch brothers won't force the GOP to adjust?

Demographic trends do not happen overnight. They are slow moving waves.

I have been saying it since 2008, yes, because that is what *is* happening. The only question is when. We have a lot more data since then and as more data comes in, we get better at seeing that trend.

I give Texas a 50/50 chance of going blue, for president at least, in 2020 for the sole reason that Trump has pissed us off, we have finally gotten off our asses, and are getting out there to do the kinds of hard work needed, and each and every election after that, the Democrats chances get better and better.

Trump is that black swan event that changes underlying factors.

[RandomGuy]

Lmao

We will get to see. The analysis that I have read makes each new presidential cycle harder and harder for the GOP, unless something underlying changes. Feel free to point out what you think that is.

[AaronY]

Hispanics are not like blacks they are not just going to vote Democrat the rest of their lives. If someone like Rubio but more charismatic runs and stresses a new inclusive GOP they could easily switch up and get 50-60% of Hispanic vote of they needed to. W. nearly drove this country into another depression and people were back voting Republican in the congressional races like 2 years later despite being despised to like a 15% approval when he left office

[baseline bum]

Demographic trends do not happen overnight. They are slow moving waves.

I have been saying it since 2008, yes, because that is what *is* happening. The only question is when. We have a lot more data since then and as more data comes in, we get better at seeing that trend.

I give Texas a 50/50 chance of going blue, for president at least, in 2020 for the sole reason that Trump has pissed us off, we have finally gotten off our asses, and are getting out there to do the kinds of hard work needed, and each and every election after that, the Democrats chances get better and better.

Trump is that black swan event that changes underlying factors.

A 50/50 shot of Texas going blue in two and a half years is nuts man. As much as we hate Trump, that's how much his voters adore him here. Every Never Trump Republican I knew during the primary now loves the guy and defends him to the death, just like we see on this forum now. Curious what you think Beto's chances are of unseating Cruz.

[RandomGuy]

A 50/50 shot of Texas going blue in two and a half years is nuts man. As much as we hate Trump, that's how much his voters adore him here. Every Never Trumper Republican I knew during the primary now loves the guy and defends him to the death, just like we see on this forum now. Curious what you think Beto's chances are of unseating Cruz.

Distant. It will be close enough to scare the jeepers out of the fucks running the GOP though. Trump changes things. It will be interesting to find out.

[Chris]

Hispanics are not like blacks they are not just going to vote Democrat the rest of their lives. If someone like Rubio but more charismatic runs and stresses a new inclusive GOP they could easily switch up and get 50-60% of Hispanic vote of they needed to. W. nearly drove this country into another depression and people were back voting Republican in the congressional races like 2 years later despite being despised to like a 15% approval when he left office

Sadly I have to agree with this rare quality take from AaronY.

[RandomGuy]

Hispanics are not like blacks they are not just going to vote Democrat the rest of their lives.

(shrugs)

We'll see. I think you are right about that to some degree, but you miss out on how young this wave is.

[Reck]

A lot of runnoffs in the dems side. Too many of them running.

Only Beto was able to eclipsed the 50% threshold. The rest are in a runoff.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

So 15% of the population votes at a higher percentage rate than the other 85% so thats why republicans keep getting elected.

Yeah, right. Keep telling yourself that, loser.

Nice strawman, fattie. I know you need to dumb things down to such binary analysis but making such strawmen only speaks to your limitations.

[boutons_deux]

Latinas

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-hispanics/latinas-lead-democratic-rise-in-texas-primary-election-idUSKCN1GJ2LR?feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Reuters%2FPoliticsNews+%28Reu ters+Politics+News%29

[CosmicCowboy]

Nice strawman, fattie. I know you need to dumb things down to such binary analysis but making such strawmen only speaks to your limitations.

I only need to dumb them down for you. Even then, your lack of reading comprehension handicaps you.

[pgardn]

the fucking Kock Bros get involved in fucking school board elections, but you rightwing assholes don't think that's "crazy".

Gonzales said when he decided to run Soros was willing to contribute and of course he would use it. Said the DA office is run horribly and that would now change. Came right out and said yep. And he would accept more if it would help clean things up.

Honesty is so strange in Trumpworld US.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

I only need to dumb them down for you. Even then, your lack of reading comprehension handicaps you.

Helps to explain what I failed to comprehend, fattie.

Binary is simple but outside of human constructs is seldom how things work. My point is that this is not a binary situation for all of your juvenile tit for tat.

[AaronY]

Dat Democrat turnout!

971248679083487232

Forecast calls for huge waves of Blue!

[Chris]

Dat Democrat turnout!

971248679083487232

Forecast calls for huge waves of Blue!

det Trump endorsement :tu got my vote on the 6th

[Chucho]

Dat Democrat turnout!

971248679083487232

Forecast calls for huge waves of Blue!

:lol

But...But the charts and projections...

[Reck]

Not bad for someone with no name or even known to get almost a million votes.

Without the vote splitting Beto should at least make this race competitve.

[Spurminator]

Dat Democrat turnout!

971248679083487232

Forecast calls for huge waves of Blue!

I don't disagree with the conclusion of the tweet, but Ted Cruz's seat was not uncontested. The Dallas Morning News endorsed his opponent.

And if it had been uncontested, that makes it more likely that his votes would exceed total Democrat votes, not less likely.

[spurraider21]

I don't disagree with the conclusion of the tweet, but Ted Cruz's seat was not uncontested. The Dallas Morning News endorsed his opponent.

And if it had been uncontested, that makes it more likely that his votes would exceed total Democrat votes, not less likely.
theoretically if its uncontested less people would bother showing up to the polls

[Spurminator]

theoretically if its uncontested less people would bother showing up to the polls

There are a bunch of other candidates and propositions to vote on at the polls. An uncontested seat just means everybody who went to vote in a party's primary will likely vote for the one person running when they get to that part of the ballot.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

theoretically if its uncontested less people would bother showing up to the polls

If it was the only race on the ticket. That is obviously not the case.

[pgardn]

There are a bunch of other candidates and propositions to vote on at the polls. An uncontested seat just means everybody who went to vote in a party's primary will likely vote for the one person running when they get to that part of the ballot.

Bottom line.

The red team votes.
Bigly.

[spurraider21]

There are a bunch of other candidates and propositions to vote on at the polls. An uncontested seat just means everybody who went to vote in a party's primary will likely vote for the one person running when they get to that part of the ballot.


If it was the only race on the ticket. That is obviously not the case.
true

[TeyshaBlue]

Bottom line.

The red team votes.
Bigly.

http://www.dallasobserver.com/news/texas-democrats-2018-chances-10447164

[boutons_deux]

TX state and Federal politicians are evidence of what a shit hole TX is

[AaronY]

http://www.dallasobserver.com/news/texas-democrats-2018-chances-10447164
Don't worry I have it on good authority Texas Rs will soon be extinct just like The rest of the Rs in this country

971772361958674433

[AaronY]

You wouldn't know it since they have the house, the senate, the supreme court, most of the governorships, plus control of most of the state legislators, plus the presidency, but conservatives are an endangered species

[rmt]

Don't worry I have it on good authority Texas Rs will soon be extinct just like The rest of the Rs in this country

971772361958674433

Dunno about that poll - I don't think Nelson is 10 points ahead of Rick Scott in Florida.

[pgardn]

You wouldn't know it since they have the house, the senate, the supreme court, most of the governorships, plus control of most of the state legislators, plus the presidency, but conservatives are an endangered species

based demographics

but when? and the Hispanic population, which will be huge in 20 years, we don't even know how the Republican Party will evolve? And if any party has shown they can be flexible to a voting base, it's been the republicans, recently at least. We could have a stronger red team with a different set of ideas to satisfy a different base. Theoretically, this is how a democracy is supposed to work.

[boutons_deux]

"we don't even know how the Republican Party will evolve"

the last 40 years, esp last 10 years, is a best predictor: totally, corruptly owned and operated by the oligarchy

The Dem establishment is not much better, only less obvious about it. Note the Dems supporting the Repug proposals to let BigFinance increase its risks dangerously, and with reduced oversight, which won't even be pro forma oversight.

[pgardn]

TX state and Federal politicians are evidence of what a shit hole TX is

Which is why the State is growing rapidly?

Im gonna have to side with rmt on this basic idea (she will correct me if I'm wrong):

The idea that people, especially on the level of the big, take care of themselves first and foremost is a very strong idea in the US. In intimate local situations, the locals will take care of some of those in need. The churches, no matter how much you hate them, do an extraordinary amount of individual work, not just giving money, ACTION. There are still church bus groups driving to our coast to help clean up. Still! If you want to get involved to help in a particular human tragedy, you look for a church group individually. Especially if it's now passé to the press.

I firmly believe our governor should address these problems more thoroughly. Red Cross, etc... often work in concert with church groups, so in a way, he has got an out. And the local population of an area is less likely to get involved if they believe it is dangerous to do so. This is why drug problems can get way out of hand for locals. So for many tragedies, the government must take the lead. At which level? it's gotta start locally and get big enough where it gets kicked up.

imo...

Think about this. If you could convince everyone in your neighborhood to go see their local congressman concerning an issue that effected many neighborhoods? Make a list a 3 people sign up every day for two months. We the people...
Show yourselves. Activism can work. Activism can easily defeat big anything if it's done properly.

But you don't believe in people power. Look who is president of the US. Beat a whole slew of Republican challengers and then the biggest upset of all time. Sit behind that keyboard. rmt actually did something. Totally against my preferences, but she participated. And might even be jaded by the process, but did something.

[SnakeBoy]

Not bad for someone with no name or even known to get almost a million votes.

Without the vote splitting Beto should at least make this race competitve.

lol Beto


Just as the media buildup about Democratic early voting fell short, so did the party’s highly touted U.S. Senate hopeful, Rep. Robert F. “Beto” O’Rourke. National Democrats have hyped the telegenic El Paso congressman as a strong bet to upset Ted Cruz, the state’s junior senator. Mr. O’Rourke spent $4.2 million to win his primary with 62%. But he lost 103 of the state’s 254 counties to Edward Kimbrough, a retired Postal Service employee, who spent $785 and received 15%, and Sema Hernandez, who spent nothing—zero, zip, nada—and still got 24%. ( Ms. Hernandez did have a Facebook page.) Mr. Cruz received twice as many votes in his primary as Mr. O’Rourke did in his.

[RandomGuy]

"we don't even know how the Republican Party will evolve"

the last 40 years, esp last 10 years, is a best predictor: totally, corruptly owned and operated by the oligarchy

The Dem establishment is not much better, only less obvious about it. Note the Dems supporting the Repug proposals to let BigFinance increase its risks dangerously, and with reduced oversight, which won't even be pro forma oversight.



Wish I could argue with this.

The modern GOP has morphed into the party of rich white guys, by rich white guys, and for rich white guys. Anyone else can go pound sand. The tax cut underlined that with a big swirl.

[rjv]

i thought beto's numbers were quite underwhelming, tbh.

[Reck]

lol Beto

And? He still went well over the 50% threshold.

[AaronY]

Sadly, Cruz is gonna mop the fucking floor with Beto's fucking ass

[SnakeBoy]

And? He still went well over the 50% threshold.

And...(see rjv's post)

[Reck]

Dunno about that poll - I don't think Nelson is 10 points ahead of Rick Scott in Florida.

LOL so you're problem with the poll is not the poll itself but that a republican is not leading enough or at all against someone you dont like. :lol

These are generic polls that have no bearing on how these races will play out.

[RandomGuy]

As Trump visits border, Latino voters are watching and biding their time

esearchers also discovered wider-than-reported gaps in Arizona (84 percent for Clinton to 12 percent for Trump, compared to 61-31 in the exit poll); in California (83 percent for Clinton to 11 percent for Trump, compared to 71-24 in the exit poll); and in Texas (77 percent for Clinton to 18 percent for Trump, compared to 61-34 in the exit poll). The same goes for New York and Florida.

The bottom line is that, contrary to conventional wisdom, Clinton probably ran ahead of Obama among Latinos in key states, whereas Trump probably ran behind Romney. This could be part of the reason why Clinton came a lot closer to winning Arizona (3.5 percentage points) and Texas (9 percentage points) than Obama did in 2012, when he lost those two states by 9 points and 16 points, respectively. It could also be why Clinton’s margin of victory in California was 1.3 million votes larger than Obama’s.

==============================
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/3/7/17092410/texas-primary-2018-turnout-evan-smith

[RandomGuy]

Sadly, Cruz is gonna mop the fucking floor with Beto's fucking ass

Most likely outcome.

Much less certain than it might have been 2 years ago.

6 more years of new Hispanic voters, and an aging white GOP determined to alienate them? See you in six.

[RandomGuy]

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/3/7/17092410/texas-primary-2018-turnout-evan-smith

Good discussion there. Realistic and data-driven.

[RandomGuy]

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/03/trump-gop-midterms/556166

Another good analysis, with supporting data:

"In each midterm since 1994, 82 percent to 86 percent of the voters who disapproved of the incumbent president voted against his party’s House candidates, exit polls found.

That effect may be even more intense under Trump because such a high proportion of those who disapprove of him do so strongly: An Election Day poll in last week’s Pennsylvania special election, for instance, found that fully 93 percent of Trump disapprovers backed Democrat Conor Lamb, the victor. In this week’s NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, 87 percent of Trump disapprovers said they intend to vote Democratic for Congress.

One group has emerged as especially alienated from the president: college-educated white women. The group ordinarily leans Democrat, but only slightly: Since 1992, Democrats have never carried more than 52 percent of their votes in House elections, and Hillary Clinton won 51 percent of them in 2016. However, this week’s NBC/WSJ poll found that 63 percent of them now disapprove of Trump and 62 percent intend to vote Democratic in November.

...


Even if Republicans energize their base enough to avoid the worst in November, polls are clarifying the long-term risks of welding themselves to Trump. With Millennials poised to pass the baby boom in 2018 as the largest generation of eligible voters, the NBC/WSJ survey found that two-thirds of Millennial women disapprove of Trump and nearly three-fourths intend to vote Democratic for Congress. (Democrats had a much narrower six-point lead among Millennial men."

[RandomGuy]

Sadly, Cruz is gonna mop the fucking floor with Beto's fucking ass

https://espnfivethirtyeight.files.wordpress.com/2017/09/wasserman-angry-college-0901-13.png?w=575&h=494&quality=90&strip=info

[AaronY]

Sadly, Cruz is gonna mop the fucking floor with Beto's fucking ass

[RandomGuy]

[la la la nothing will ever change, or something like that]

Scott Walker Is Sooooo Sad

he Blue Team had another good night of special elections. We held legislative seats in Massachusetts and Rhode Island, where Democrat Sandra Cano beat Clinton’s 2016 margin by 15%!

But the bigger deal was in Wisconsin, where Democratic-backed judge Rebecca Dallet flipped a seat on the state’s Supreme Court, beating Republican- and NRA-backed judge Michael Screnock by 12%! (When we are king, there will be no more judicial elections, which are BAD. But until then, we need to win them!) Note to Democrats: You want to beat a Republican like a rented mule? RUN AS AN ACTUAL LIBERAL!

Here are some more cool pictures from data dude G. ****** Morris at The Economist. You should follow that guy!

981376048557428737

Read more at https://wonkette.com/632182/nice-time-scott-walker-is-sooooo-sad#m3DBf2Jpimll9d58.99

[AaronY]

In 20 or 30 years I could see Texas maybe being purple like Florida. Doubt it will ever be blue.

Make no mistake tho Cruz will mop the fucking floor with Beto's fucking ass sadly

[RandomGuy]

In 20 or 30 years I could see Texas maybe being purple like Florida. Doubt it will ever be blue.

Make no mistake tho Cruz will mop the fucking floor with Beto's fucking ass sadly


I have been against everything that [Trump] has ever stood for. The selfishness, the lies, the mentality that women are just sex objects, the idea that character doesn’t matter, the idea that integrity, and being truthful, is whenever it suits you — those are all traits that I have spent my entire adult life fighting against as a military officer.”

.. Kentucky 6th in the hissouse. Dems are running a raft of good candidates this fall.

[boutons_deux]

"those are all traits that I have spent my entire adult life fighting against as a military officer.”

:lol what a Boy Scout. His entire life has been employed by a corrupt, fraudulent, democracy-killing military

[RandomGuy]

"those are all traits that I have spent my entire adult life fighting against as a military officer.”

:lol what a Boy Scout. His entire life has been employed by a corrupt, fraudulent, democracy-killing military

Her. The ex-marine fighter pilot is a her, with 89 combat missions. The omission of gender was intentional on my part, for this reason. :D

[AaronY]

.. Kentucky 6th in the hissouse. Dems are running a raft of good candidates this fall.
When the primaries come around I doubt centrist Dems who have a chance of winning in red districts will be at the forefront as much. We already have left-wing retards who want to primary Joe Manchin with some far left person in WV. Luckily the DNC is pushing good candidates with military backgrounds in red districts let's hope far left retards don't sabotage them in the primaries.

Anyways, how any of this to beto is beyond me. He's getting destroyed

[boutons_deux]

Her. The ex-marine fighter pilot is a her, with 89 combat missions. The omission of gender was intentional on my part, for this reason. :D

doesn't matter, so it's a Girl Scout, duped into believing the military is "defending" America, rather than maintaining Imperial America's planetary hegemony

[AaronY]

doesn't matter, so it's a Girl Scout, duped into believing the military is "defending" America, rather than maintaining Imperial America's planetary hegemony
Right. Should have had some pussy hat wearing tranny who wants a $15 minimum wage, free college, and UBI running in Kentucky. Would have stood a much better chance amirite?