2018 Investing Thread

[InRareForm]

forgot to make one for this year... would like to hear peoples ideas, suggestions, investment strategies, etc for this year..

right now it seems optimal to have cash on hand, wait for a usual market dip/correction and ride the wave back up.

[Spurminator]

I'm long on GrubHub. It's tripled in the past year but there's still a ton of room to grow. Every mid-sized restaurant chain in America is working on a delivery strategy and GrubHub + UberEats are leading a very fragmented market that will quickly consolidate.

[Blake]

I'm thinking Facebook. Seriously

[Chucho]

I'm thinking Facebook. Seriously


It's blue chip and no one, not even Google to be honest, is ahead of the curve with online advertising the way FB is.

[Spurminator]

Yeah this would seem to be a good time to load up on Facebook.

[rmt]

Well, how mad are the Dems? Are they gonna bail on FB?

I look at this spending bill and the national debt and I'm thinking gold, real estate, bit coin and guns/ammo.

[CosmicCowboy]

Well, how mad are the Dems? Are they gonna bail on FB?

I look at this spending bill and the national debt and I'm thinking gold, real estate, bit coin and guns/ammo.
I know you have made money trading bitcoin but Im sitting that one out.

[rmt]

It's blue chip and no one, not even Google to be honest, is ahead of the curve with online advertising the way FB is.

Amazon and Snapchat gaining:

https://www.recode.net/2018/3/19/17139184/google-facebooks-share-digital-advertising-ad-market-could-decline-amazon-snapchat

Google teaming up with Walmart, Target, Costco to try to challenge Amazon which became #2 (passing Alphabet) most valuable company.

http://fortune.com/2018/03/21/amazon-second-most-valuable-company-after-apple/

[rmt]

I know you have made money trading bitcoin but Im sitting that one out.

It's not the method but the philosophy/strategy - as in things that are not SO affected by what the crazies in DC are doing. All 4 leaders on both sides seem hell bent on spending us into oblivion as long as they get what they want.

[rmt]

Not to mention stocks that lose value depending on which "star" criticizes it on a particular day - omgosh - unbelievable.

[pgardn]

Not to mention stocks that lose value depending on which "star" criticizes it on a particular day - omgosh - unbelievable.

Good for you that you have time to make quick changes.
I must be a plodding diverse machine.

[rmt]

Good for you that you have time to make quick changes.
I must be a plodding diverse machine.

I didn't say I invested in social media (although I guess index funds have them) but yes, one has to watch the stock in (day) trading. I see day trading as different from long term investing. For trading - in and out of volatile things (like bit coin). For long-term, index funds and/or real estate. DIVERSIFY.

[Blake]

Well, how mad are the Dems? Are they gonna bail on FB?

I look at this spending bill and the national debt and I'm thinking gold, real estate, bit coin and guns/ammo.

You sound like Glenn Beck

[pgardn]

I didn't say I invested in social media (although I guess index funds have them) but yes, one has to watch the stock in (day) trading. I see day trading as different from long term investing. For trading - in and out of volatile things (like bit coin). For long-term, index funds and/or real estate. DIVERSIFY.

No criticism.
I just have to think about other stuff.
And I know what I don't know. That's day to day trends and quick moves.

[rmt]

You sound like Glenn Beck

Don't like that guy. I guess my posts are in reaction to this bill - they can't keep spending like that but they keep piling on to get votes.

[rmt]

Interest rates going up - more debt payment. I sound all doom and gloom - but I know the economy is picking up - more headhunters' emails.

[Xevious]

I have a mix of small/large cap and emerging market index funds in my 401k, some growth and growth and income mutual funds in our Roths/529s, and then I have one rental. Though that house will probably be sold within a few years.

I'm too busy to day trade or mess with single stocks.

[SnakeBoy]

I have a mix of small/large cap and emerging market index funds in my 401k, some growth and growth and income mutual funds in our Roths/529s, and then I have one rental. Though that house will probably be sold within a few years.

I'm too busy to day trade or mess with single stocks.

You should never day trade or mess with individual stocks with retirement savings.

[Xevious]

You should never day trade or mess with individual stocks with retirement savings.
Nor would I. I just meant in general.

[InRareForm]

SHOP, BZUN, SQUARE have been great to me this year. I think ecommerce has tons of upside still..

[CosmicCowboy]

SHOP, BZUN, SQUARE have been great to me this year. I think ecommerce has tons of upside still..
Yeah I am probably gonna buy jd.com. long haul their upside is higher than amazon.

[RandomGuy]

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/21/deere-co-fears-a-hit-from-trump-tariffs-and-retaliation.html

Here is a good play: Short Caterpillar.

Tariffs on steel, then China broadly have a VERY obvious retaliatory target.

[RandomGuy]

FWIW:

Factbox: Top S&P 500 companies exposed to China

(Reuters) - Investor worries about a trade war between the United States and China ratcheted up on Wednesday, leaving a number of large U.S. companies potentially in the crosshairs of a dispute because of their business with China.

The tariffs on steel and aluminum imports proposed on March 1 and signed into law by U.S. President Donald Trump on March 8 have sparked concerns of a global trade war and frayed investors' nerves.

Trump will likely announce tariffs on Chinese imports by Friday, a source in the administration said, as the top U.S. trade diplomat told lawmakers he had the tools to strike back over Chinese theft of U.S. technology know-how.

A report in the Wall Street Journal said China was planning counter-measures against U.S. tariffs.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/factbox-top-p-500-companies-exposed-china-214544478--finance.html

Markets down about 1%

More inflationary pressures coming down the pike. Invest accordingly.

Upside is the insurance industry will catch a break, since their investment portfolios overwhelming favor bonds. CFOs I talked to invariably bitched about low yields after the financial crisis. Rising rates will change that.

As bonds in their portfolios mature, they will get to replace the lower yield stuff with higher yields, as well as earning more money from Treasuries. Look first to insurer with mid-tail exposures, especially P & C companies offering things like homeowners insurance, who generally match their portfolios with their liability profiles. This means their (P & C generally, not HO insurers specifically) bonds are in the 5 year maturity generally.

Poke around balance sheets and pay attention to their reserve holdings.

[CosmicCowboy]

Yeah I am probably gonna buy jd.com. long haul their upside is higher than amazon.

Pulled the trigger today and bought at $40. It really dropped on "china fears" even though it has nothing to do with the tariffs. I think calmer heads will prevail over the weekend and it will bounce back up. Think of an amazon with a potential market of 15 billion people.

[InRareForm]

I am usually long on stocks and don't panic sell but I just sold a lot of my holdings for profit and re-entering next week if the slide continues. In my short time with investing momentum has been apparent.. and the selling will continue imo.

[Expert]

Pulled the trigger today and bought at $40. It really dropped on "china fears" even though it has nothing to do with the tariffs. I think calmer heads will prevail over the weekend and it will bounce back up. Think of an amazon with a potential market of 15 billion people.
I don't get your numbers. 15 billion?

[CosmicCowboy]

I don't get your numbers. 15 billion?

China, India all of asia and moving into europe and the US.

[spurraider21]

China, India all of asia and moving into europe and the US.
the earth has a population between 7 and 8 billion

[CosmicCowboy]

I don't get your numbers. 15 billion?

China, India all of asia and moving into europe and the US.

[CosmicCowboy]

Geah, you are right. Billions but not 15. Asian market is still huge compared to US and huge room for economic growth.

[RandomGuy]

China Takes First Step In Paying For Crude Imports In Yuan

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-takes-first-step-paying-210000979.html

Baby step in reducing demand for USD

[RandomGuy]

China Takes First Step In Paying For Crude Imports In Yuan

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-takes-first-step-paying-210000979.html

Baby step in reducing demand for USD

[Spurminator]

HMNY ($2.29) is intriguing to me right now. They own Moviepass, which is getting absolutely killed in the media the past couple of weeks as they've hemorrhaged funds to pay for current users' tickets, and now they've changed the user agreement to reduce the number of free movies new subscribers can see in a month, along with preventing you from seeing some movies more than once.

As a customer, I'm not sure how up-to-4-movies per month for $9.99/month is a bad deal. The conversation around Moviepass reminds me of when Netflix split their DVD and streaming services in 2011... everyone wrote them off and their stock tanked from $42 to $9 per share. Sure would have been nice to get in at that price.

I still think Moviepass can be a game changer, if they can survive. I don't see this costing them a significant amount of their current subscribers (for one thing, the 4-movie policy only apples to new subscribers, and even if they expanded it to all subscribers, why would you decline what's still basically three free movies a month?) If their subscriber base continues to grow, they have leverage to negotiate better deals with cinema chains so they won't have to reimburse tickets at full price. And their customer data still has huge value.

It's a risky play but even a small investment now could pay huge dividends a few years from now.

Thoughts?

[spurraider21]

HMNY ($2.29) is intriguing to me right now. They own Moviepass, which is getting absolutely killed in the media the past couple of weeks as they've hemorrhaged funds to pay for current users' tickets, and now they've changed the user agreement to reduce the number of free movies new subscribers can see in a month, along with preventing you from seeing some movies more than once.

As a customer, I'm not sure how up-to-4-movies per month for $9.99/month is a bad deal. The conversation around Moviepass reminds me of when Netflix split their DVD and streaming services in 2011... everyone wrote them off and their stock tanked from $42 to $9 per share. Sure would have been nice to get in at that price.

I still think Moviepass can be a game changer, if they can survive. I don't see this costing them a significant amount of their current subscribers (for one thing, the 4-movie policy only apples to new subscribers, and even if they expanded it to all subscribers, why would you decline what's still basically three free movies a month?) If their subscriber base continues to grow, they have leverage to negotiate better deals with cinema chains so they won't have to reimburse tickets at full price. And their customer data still has huge value.

It's a risky play but even a small investment now could pay huge dividends a few years from now.

Thoughts?
i dont care about the 4 movies per month limitation... when my 1 year subscription ends in december, i'd still sign up for that deal.

the inability to see the same movie twice is more frustrating. i tend to do that quite a bit. that being said, even if i pay to see a movie a second time, moviepass still saves me a lot of money over the course of a year. i've had it for a little less than 5 months and have seen 10 movies. around here, movie tickets typically cost about $12-13. given that i paid less than $90 for the full year, i'm already just playing with house money. 2 of those have been re-watches... so lets say i've only seen 8. at $13 a ticket, i'm still in the green for the rest of the year not including those.

it does worry me that MoviePass seems to realize that the big model they had been pushing for months isn't really sustainable. and i think it was really short sighted for them to remove those select AMC theaters for their services. WAY premature for them to try to execute that sort of power play. i trust their CEO, but they definitely aren't trending in the right direction. doesn't mean i wont re-up with them if they're still in business, but the wave will slow down

[InRareForm]

typical sell the news of SHOP. this will be back to 130, and possibly 140 in the next month imo.

right now long celgene, TGTX. biotech is risky but i like how it isn't heavily influenced by politics, current events, etc.

[rmt]

Fidelity one-ups Vanguard, Schwab and iShares, becoming first company to offer a no-fee index fund

Fidelity Investments just beat all of the low-fee index fund competition to a move long expected: It will be the first fund company to offer core index funds without any management fee.

On Wednesday, Fidelity announced the Fidelity Zero Total Market Index Fund and the Fidelity Zero International Index Fund will be available to investors on Friday. "Investors will pay a 0.00 percent fee, regardless of how much they invest in either fund, while gaining exposure to nearly the entire global stock market," Fidelity said in a release.

Fidelity also announced that it is lowering fees on other core mutual funds by an average of 35 percent and will charge no investment minimums to access the lower and no-fee funds. Expense ratios will go as low as 0.015 percent

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/01/fidelity-one-ups-vanguard-first-company-to-offer-no-fee-index-fund.html

No investment minimums - great for young people just starting off. I'd do a 70/30 mix.

[Spurtacular]

I really need to get back into investing. I've been lazy about it for a while now.

[RandomGuy]

Federal reserve is starting to quietly dispose of it US treasury holdings.

Coupled with massively increased borrowing rate due to recent tax cuts, this will drive up interest rates on new issues of US sovereign debt. Not sure how much.

This will mean that the risk-free rate will rise, making them a bit more attractive as investments, relative to stocks, putting some downward pressure on valuations.

[CosmicCowboy]

hardly a surprise the Fed is expected to do two more raises this year.

[Spurminator]

HMNY ($2.29) is intriguing to me right now. They own Moviepass, which is getting absolutely killed in the media the past couple of weeks as they've hemorrhaged funds to pay for current users' tickets, and now they've changed the user agreement to reduce the number of free movies new subscribers can see in a month, along with preventing you from seeing some movies more than once.

As a customer, I'm not sure how up-to-4-movies per month for $9.99/month is a bad deal. The conversation around Moviepass reminds me of when Netflix split their DVD and streaming services in 2011... everyone wrote them off and their stock tanked from $42 to $9 per share. Sure would have been nice to get in at that price.

I still think Moviepass can be a game changer, if they can survive. I don't see this costing them a significant amount of their current subscribers (for one thing, the 4-movie policy only apples to new subscribers, and even if they expanded it to all subscribers, why would you decline what's still basically three free movies a month?) If their subscriber base continues to grow, they have leverage to negotiate better deals with cinema chains so they won't have to reimburse tickets at full price. And their customer data still has huge value.

It's a risky play but even a small investment now could pay huge dividends a few years from now.

Thoughts?

This was a bad call. A very, very bad call.

[RandomGuy]

hardly a surprise the Fed is expected to do two more raises this year.

The scope/magnitude of which is the only question. My gut says that they will use a light touch until real wages rise faster than inflation.

[RandomGuy]

This was a bad call. A very, very bad call.

yeah, their cash flow crunch should have been the "red alert" klaxon. It was worth a small investment at the time, out of your "risky" pot.

Don't beat yourself up over it.

[RandomGuy]

Fidelity one-ups Vanguard, Schwab and iShares, becoming first company to offer a no-fee index fund

Fidelity Investments just beat all of the low-fee index fund competition to a move long expected: It will be the first fund company to offer core index funds without any management fee.

On Wednesday, Fidelity announced the Fidelity Zero Total Market Index Fund and the Fidelity Zero International Index Fund will be available to investors on Friday. "Investors will pay a 0.00 percent fee, regardless of how much they invest in either fund, while gaining exposure to nearly the entire global stock market," Fidelity said in a release.

Fidelity also announced that it is lowering fees on other core mutual funds by an average of 35 percent and will charge no investment minimums to access the lower and no-fee funds. Expense ratios will go as low as 0.015 percent

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/01/fidelity-one-ups-vanguard-first-company-to-offer-no-fee-index-fund.html

No investment minimums - great for young people just starting off. I'd do a 70/30 mix.

You can also buy directly from the companies themselves in many, many cases, with minimums generally around 200 bucks or so.

https://www-us.computershare.com/investor/3x/plans/planslist.asp?bhjs=1&fla=0&stype=dspp

I wouldn't buy anything though this website, but the list is helpful.

[CosmicCowboy]

The scope/magnitude of which is the only question. My gut says that they will use a light touch until real wages rise faster than inflation.

They will keep the yield curve from inverting. it's a great time to raise rates while the economy is booming. They will probably raise 50 basic points before the end of the year.

[Spurminator]

yeah, their cash flow crunch should have been the "red alert" klaxon. It was worth a small investment at the time, out of your "risky" pot.

Don't beat yourself up over it.

Oh it was small, but it was still a hell of a steep drop from $2.24 (including a reverse split).

[RandomGuy]

They will keep the yield curve from inverting. it's a great time to raise rates while the economy is booming. They will probably raise 50 basic points before the end of the year.

A stock-market bear signal is at a more-than-4-decade high, says Goldman
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-stock-market-bear-signal-is-at-a-more-than-4-decade-high-says-goldman-2018-09-06

Stocks are due to take a hit once Boomers move into the drawdown phase, and move away from risk.

The buybacks overall have probably been forstalling the decline, and I wonder how many shares have been taken out of circulation, and if that might affect volatility.

[RandomGuy]

https://ei.marketwatch.com/Multimedia/2018/09/06/Photos/NS/MW-GP595_20_dra_20180906105801_NS.png?uuid=4043731e-b1e5-11e8-985d-ac162d7bc1f7

[SnakeBoy]

Not really into buying individual stocks anymore but I couldn't resist SYF. Probably good for 25%+ return by Feb/March imho fwiw tbh