Clemens, Game 1

[Spurminator]

What do you guys think about this? I always assumed Pettitte would get the Game 1 start no matter what, since he would have enough rest between Monday and Saturday regardless of the length of the NLCS.

Right now I think Andy is pitching a little better, so I'm inclined to want him to pitch Game 1. Of course, it may not matter since (if the Series goes seven) he, Roger and Oswalt would likely pitch two games a piece anyway. It's not really a situation where you have one ace that needs to pitch games 1, 4 and 7.

[Marcus Bryant]

Hmmm...Clemens is well rested. Perhaps too rested.

Still, you hit them with Clemens first to go after that first win. Maybe it doesn't matter but I think getting a Game 1 win on the road is quite valuable (beyond it being a win). It puts the Sox on their heels. Game 2? You almost want to go with Oswalt there since he's nails and put yourself in the best spot to at least get a split in the 1st 2 games in Chicago. Then at home you go with Pettitte, Backe and Clemens again, with Oswalt there to start for you in Game 6 on the road. That would leave you with Pettitte as the potential Game 7 starter. I guess Clemens could start Game 4 and Backe take Game 5 instead so that Clemens would start in a Game 7.

[ducks]

I think it will not matter sox will win it all

[Horry For 3!]

Game 1: Clemens
Game 2: Pettitte
Game 3: Oswalt
Game 4: Backe
Game 5: Clemens
Game 6: Pettitte
Game 7: Oswalt

[Spurminator]

Now that I think about it... Oswalt in Game 7 is friggin sweet.

[Horry For 3!]

Now that I think about it... Oswalt in Game 7 is friggin sweet.
Yes, he has been the best of the big 3.

[Marcus Bryant]

Now that I think about it... Oswalt in Game 7 is friggin sweet.

Why not go with Oswalt for 3 games in the series? Anyone see a way that could be feasible?

Gm 1 Sat Oct. 22 Clemens
Gm 2 Sun Oct. 23 Oswalt
Gm 3 Tue Oct. 25 Pettitte
Gm 4 Wed Oct. 26 Clemens
Gm 5 Thu Oct. 27 Oswalt
Gm 6 Sat Oct. 29 Pettitte
Gm 7 Sun Oct. 30 Oswalt

?

[Spurminator]

Well, for one thing, he'd have to pitch on two days' rest on Saturday. And if you went Oswalt-Clemens-Pettitte-Oswalt-Clemens-Pettite-Oswalt, every pitcher would be going on three days rest max the second time around.

[Spurminator]

Gm 1 Sat Oct. 22 Clemens
Gm 2 Sun Oct. 23 Oswalt
Gm 3 Tue Oct. 25 Pettitte
Gm 4 Wed Oct. 26 Clemens
Gm 5 Thu Oct. 27 Oswalt
Gm 6 Sat Oct. 29 Pettitte
Gm 7 Sun Oct. 30 Oswalt


That's back to back 3-days-rest games for Oswalt followed by only 2 days' rest if G7 is necessary. That would be unheard of.

Plus Pettitte's second start is on three days' rest.

[Marcus Bryant]

Hmmm...Oswalt would have 4 full days between last night and a Game 2 start. But yeah, it's cutting it close on the back end.

I guess you have to start Backe at some point. One of the home games, I would guess.

[Spurminator]

I may be wrong, but I think the 3-days'-rest standard applies to days *between* game days. So Oswalt would have today, tomorrow, and Saturday off. I think that's how they usually count them.

[Marcus Bryant]

Oops. For some strange reason I thought this was Wednesday. Too much celebrating last night.

[ShoogarBear]

Back in the days of four-man rotations, it used to be the standard for your workhorse pitcher to pitch three games in the Series.

Mickey Lolich of the Tigers in the 68 series was the last to win 3 games, I think.

[Spurminator]

Yeah, but when you have three workhorses at your disposal, I'd rather pitch all of them on full rest. Oswalt isn't enough of an upgrade over Pettitte and Clemens to risk tiring him out... Plus, you'd have to pitch those two on shorter rest as well, unless you still worked Backe into the rotation at the expense of one of their games.

[TexasAggie2005]

I think a lot of it's variable. If you're down 2-1 or 3-0, you can't really afford to hand the ball to Backe. If Clemens throws fewer pitches in game 1, it'll be more likely we can bring him back for game 4. You can't lose a World Series because you're scared of pitching a guy on three days rest. There's no next week to save him for. But like I said, it depends. If we're up 3-0, Backe definitely pitches game 4. He probably pitches even if we're only up 2-1.

[Spurminator]

If Clemens throws fewer pitches in game 1, it'll be more likely we can bring him back for game 4.

True, but then the question becomes Who do we trust more to be able to perform on 3 days' rest? Pettitte or Clemens?

[Marcus Bryant]

Upon contemplation, you go...

Game 1 Clemens
Game 2 Pettitte
Game 3 Oswalt

That way, if the 'stros come back to Houston down 0-2 or 1-1 you have Oswalt to give you your best shot at getting back in the series or taking the lead. If you're somehow up 2-0 then you have Oswalt to give you a shot at taking a commanding lead in the series.

Then you can come back with Clemens in Game 4 if need be (if it's 1-2 or 0-3). If you're up 3-0 or 2-1 then you can go with Backe.

To talk myself out of an idea in mid-post, if you are up 3-0 maybe you go with Clemens in Game 4 to close out the series.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

Oswalt impressed me last game. Pettitte has been unimpressive.

Definitely start out with Clemens.

[Marcus Bryant]

Backe did have a great last start. Man, I don't know. Do you give the Sox a night off from facing one of the Big 3?

[Cant_Be_Faded]

Stick with the guys that got you to the top.
Whoever that was.

[Spurminator]

Some numbers for the Big Three pitching in the postseason on 3 days' rest....

In the past four years, Clemens and Pettitte have each done this one time. Clemens was last year, and he gave up 4 ER and 6 hits in 6.0 innings.

Andy Pettitte pitched on 3 days' rest in the World Series against the Marlins and logged 9.2 innings of shutout baseball.

Roy started Game 5 of the Braves series last year on 3 days' rest and gave up 2 runs, 7 hits and 3 walks in 5.0 innings. He also pitched in relief in game 7 of the Cardinals series on 3 days' rest, giving up a run and 3 hits in 2.0 innings of work.

Not a large sample for any player, but that Pettitte performance was pretty amazing.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

I sure would like to see Andy tear it up in the WS.
That would own.

[ShoogarBear]

The Stros really have a decided advantage in WS experience with Pettite and Clemens. Hernandez and Contreras don't match them. Will that matter? I dunno.

[Spurminator]

He's been inconsistent in his career in the World Series, so we'll see which Andy Pettitte shows up...

(Year: GS, Recond, ERA, WHIP)
1996: 2, 1-1, 5.91, 1.41
1998: 1, 1-0, 0.00, 1.09
1999: 1, 0-0, 12.27, 3.00
2000: 2, 0-0, 1.98, 1.46
2001: 2, 0-2, 10.00, 1.56
2003: 2, 1-1, 0.57, 1.02
Total: 10, 3-4, 3.90, 1.40

[Marcus Bryant]

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ap-worldseries-astros&prov=ap&type=lgns


Astros have perfect setup for first World Series

By STEPHEN HAWKINS, AP Sports Writer
October 20, 2005

ST. LOUIS (AP) -- Now that the Houston Astros are finally in the World Series, they couldn't be set up any better.

Their stellar rotation of Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte and Roy Oswalt is lined up to start the first three games against the White Sox on full rest. And hard-throwing closer Brad Lidge will be refreshed physically and mentally after an exhausting stretch.




Clemens (3-0, 1.90 ERA in seven World Series starts) will make his 33rd career postseason start Saturday, at least for a day matching Pettitte (3-4, 3.90 in 10 World Series starts) for the most ever. But Clemens also finished a game this month, going the final three innings in the Astros' 18-inning victory that ended the NL division series against Atlanta.

Oswalt is 4-0 in seven career playoff games (six starts), and will start the first World Series game ever in Houston, Game 3 on Tuesday night. Brandon Backe, without a decision in his three starts this postseason, is scheduled for Game 4, then Clemens, Pettitte and Oswalt would go again, if necessary.


Gm 1 Oct 22 Clemens
Gm 2 Oct 23 Pettitte
Gm 3 Oct 25 Oswalt
Gm 4 Oct 26 Backe
Gm 5 Oct 27 Clemens
Gm 6 Oct 29 Pettitte
Gm 7 Oct 30 Oswalt

Not bad. At least a full 4 days' rest for each starter between starts.

[2centsworth]

Oswalt impressed me last game. Pettitte has been unimpressive.

Definitely start out with Clemens.
Pettitte gave up only 2 runs in game 5 against ST. Louis. That is freakin awesome!

[TexasAggie2005]

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ap-worldseries-astros&prov=ap&type=lgns





Gm 1 Oct 22 Clemens
Gm 2 Oct 23 Pettitte
Gm 3 Oct 25 Oswalt
Gm 4 Oct 26 Backe
Gm 5 Oct 27 Clemens
Gm 6 Oct 29 Pettitte
Gm 7 Oct 30 Oswalt

Not bad. At least a full 4 days' rest for each starter between starts.

Keep in mind they're saying Backe is "scheduled" to start game 4. That means nothing, of course he's "scheduled" to start it. That doesn't mean he will. We're not going to announce in advance we've decided to go to a three man rotation, especially when it's still up in the air. The people writing this article know nothing more than you or I.

[Solid D]

The Astros certainly have the starting depth to run 4 different pitchers out there. The critical innings for Clemens in my opinion are the 1st inning and the 6th. The 1st inning, because over the years, he's not into his full rhythm early (He's not the only great strikeout pitcher with that tendency). The 6th inning because this season, that is when he typically starts to struggle with command and his pitch count/batter increases.

Pettitte is a good choice for Game 2. He pitched Game 2 of the 2003 WS for the Yankees and he was 1 batter shy of pitching a complete game (W, 6-1). Technically, Garner could go with Oswalt in Game 2, since Roy would have 3 days rest, but Pettitte is more familiar with pitching in US Cellular in an American League setting.

I like the Astros' options just the way it is, right now. Two starters with lots of AL experience pitching in Chicago against DHs. The 2 young NL Astros' "system" pitchers opening up at Minute Maid Park. Backe and Clemens have the better batting averages of the 4 (nothing to get excited about though) and they would project to be hitting in Games 4 and 5.

Strategy changes with injuries or poor starts, so all of that could go out the window, but as it stands now...the Astros are hot and hey, Wild Card teams seem to be the trend on WS winners lately!

[Marcus Bryant]

Keep in mind they're saying Backe is "scheduled" to start game 4. That means nothing, of course he's "scheduled" to start it. That doesn't mean he will. We're not going to announce in advance we've decided to go to a three man rotation, especially when it's still up in the air. The people writing this article know nothing more than you or I.

Well sure, but I don't see it as much of a stretch that the rotation goes Clemens, Pettitte and then Oswalt, as well as that Backe gets the start in a home game. Otherwise, Clemens will have 2 prospective starts on 3 days' rest.

[Marcus Bryant]

The Astros certainly have the starting depth to run 4 different pitchers out there. The critical innings for Clemens in my opinion are the 1st inning and the 6th. The 1st inning, because over the years, he's not into his full rhythm early (He's not the only great strikeout pitcher with that tendency). The 6th inning because this season, that is when he typically starts to struggle with command and his pitch count/batter increases.

Pettitte is a good choice for Game 2. He pitched Game 2 of the 2003 WS for the Yankees and he was 1 batter shy of pitching a complete game (W, 6-1). Technically, Garner could go with Oswalt in Game 2, since Roy would have 3 days rest, but Pettitte is more familiar with pitching in US Cellular in an American League setting.

I like the Astros' options just the way it is, right now. Two starters with lots of AL experience pitching in Chicago against DHs. The 2 young NL Astros' "system" pitchers opening up at Minute Maid Park. Backe and Clemens have the better batting averages of the 4 (nothing to get excited about though) and they would project to be hitting in Games 4 and 5.

Strategy changes with injuries or poor starts, so all of that could go out the window, but as it stands now...the Astros are hot and hey, Wild Card teams seem to be the trend on WS winners lately!

Yep. Even more reason for the Clemens/Pettitte/Oswalt/Backe order.

[Spurminator]

Yeah, I think the only way Clemens goes in Game 4 is if he gets shelled in Game 1 and only pitches 3 or 4 innings.

[TexasAggie2005]

Yeah, I think the only way Clemens goes in Game 4 is if he gets shelled in Game 1 and only pitches 3 or 4 innings.

I believe the exact opposite. I think if he looks good in game 1 he's more likely to pitch game 4. If we're down 2-1 in the series, you really think we're going to trot Backe out there with Clemens sitting on the bench? Three days rest is enough, he'll want to pitch. Besides, it's not like we're saving him for something.

[Spurminator]

If we did that then Pettitte and Oswalt would have to pitch on 3 days rest as well. Unless you brought Backe out for Game 5 or 6.

[Solid D]

Backe was awesome his last start, wasn't he?

[Horry For 3!]

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ap-worldseries-astros&prov=ap&type=lgns


Gm 1 Oct 22 Clemens
Gm 2 Oct 23 Pettitte
Gm 3 Oct 25 Oswalt
Gm 4 Oct 26 Backe
Gm 5 Oct 27 Clemens
Gm 6 Oct 29 Pettitte
Gm 7 Oct 30 Oswalt

Not bad. At least a full 4 days' rest for each starter between starts.
I posted that line-up way earlier in the thread but it wasn't official I just knew that is how it would be.

[Marcus Bryant]

Backe was awesome his last start, wasn't he?

Yep. If he can do that again that's like getting another start out of one of the Big 3. The Big 3 would also have a full rest between each of their prospective starts in the series.

[scott]

Yeah, I think the only way Clemens goes in Game 4 is if he gets shelled in Game 1 and only pitches 3 or 4 innings.

.

[Spurminator]

... Of course if he's really hurt, he may not pitch at all.

[TexasAggie2005]

Looks like now we may be using Backe AND bringing back Andy and Roy on three days rest. Hopefully Roger can make it back, but it doesn't look good. Maybe the warmer weather in H-town will help keep his hamstring from tightening up. Although if he's healthy enough and can make it back, money says he pitches game four.

Why are all of you acting like pitching on three days rest is so crazy? It used to be pretty commonplace. It's the World Series, you get the entire offseason to rest afterwards.

[Jimcs50]

Looks like now we may be using Backe AND bringing back Andy and Roy on three days rest. Hopefully Roger can make it back, but it doesn't look good. Maybe the warmer weather in H-town will help keep his hamstring from tightening up. Although if he's healthy enough and can make it back, money says he pitches game four.

Why are all of you acting like pitching on three days rest is so crazy? It used to be pretty commonplace. It's the World Series, you get the entire offseason to rest afterwards.


Roy O can not pitch on 3 days rest. You act like it was commonplace in Roy's time. He never pitches on 3 days rest, he throws too hard to do that. Someone like Wakefield or another knuckleballer could, but not a power pitcher. Clemens' record on 3 days rest is horrible, and so would Roy's if he tried it. It is mental too, if you never have done it.

The Astros can platoon pitchers in Clemens' spot with Rodriguez, Astacio and Co.