Thomas frank: Trump could win in 2020

[Winehole23]

JW: What is his path?

TF: It’s really simple. Unemployment is extremely low right now. The economy is booming. He could succeed the way Bill Clinton did. People have trouble remembering what Clinton actually did as president, but they do remember it was good times. There was universal prosperity. As a result, Clinton was massively popular towards the end of his administration. It wasn’t because of NAFTA or the balanced budget or bank deregulation. Those were not particularly popular things. It was because the economy was booming. I’m not just referring to the stock market. As we all know, there was a classic stock-market bubble in the late 1990s—the NASDAQ bubble with tech stocks. But something else happened in the late 1990s: Wages grew for the first and only time since the 1970s. Real wages for average workers grew, when adjusted for inflation. In the country that you and I grew up in, Jon, that used to be common. That happened every year. Nowadays, it never happens. The Bill Clinton late 1990s was the one period when it in fact took place.https://www.thenation.com/article/thomas-frank-trump-could-win-the-2020-election/

[boutons_deux]

"The economy is booming."

the stock market is booming

... not for everyone. the top 5% or so pocket 95% of the gains in national wealth.

Ms are in shitty, low-pay at below poverty level, no-future jobs, like Uber, delivery drivers, while 100Ks are laid off in retail.

real wages are stagnant, have been since late 70s.

[Winehole23]

Median wages are growing:

https://www.frbatlanta.org/chcs/wage-growth-tracker.aspx?panel=1




But are not keeping up with inflation:

https://chartable-images.edapps.nile.works/chartable/5b4796e19def54000e1f983c/2300.jpg?v=1533907767.670501 (https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2018/08/10/america-wage-growth-is-getting-wiped-out-entirely-by-inflation/)

[Winehole23]

TF with the dagger out for liberal smugness:


What does it tell us when liberals, faced with epic political corruption, spectacular bank misbehavior, and towering inequality, take that opportunity to declare war on populism? It tells us that they’ve lost any sense of their own movement as an expression of the vast majority. It tells us they have no idea why they believe they should be entrusted with power in the first place. And it reminds us that their particular brand of class-based self-delusion is a luxury that the rest of us can ill afford.https://thebaffler.com/intros-and-manifestos/the-people-no-frank

[Spurtacular]

:lol "could win"
:lol Hole still out of sorts

[Winehole23]

Huh?

[Winehole23]

sometimes you barely make any sense

[Will Hunting]

He’s the favorite in 2020 imo. His approval rating sucks but he’s going to have a giant advantage avoiding the primary process while the Democratic primary will either (i) be a 15+ candidate shit show or (ii) be a heavily controlled process that produces a Clinton shill who does nothing to energize the base. Even though more moderate conservatives like CC would love to see him get primaried he’s way too popular with his base for that to happen, no one is going to even try it because it would be a career killer.

If the Dems pick a moderate, “business friendly” Dem like Booker they’re toast imo.

[Winehole23]

He’s the favorite in 2020 imo. His approval rating sucks but he’s going to have a giant advantage avoiding the primary process while the Democratic primary will either (i) be a 15+ candidate shit show or (ii) be a heavily controlled process that produces a Clinton shill who does nothing to energize the base. Even though more moderate conservatives like CC would love to see him get primaried he’s way too popular with his base for that to happen, no one is going to even try it because it would be a career killer.

If the Dems pick a moderate, “business friendly” Dem like Booker they’re toast imo.Yep.

We've seen how well a soulless technocrat who connects better with donors than voters and has no concrete policies that will plausibly make their lives any better, can do.

(Dukakis, Gore, Kerry, HRC)

[hater]

Overwhelming favorite

He might have better odds than the Warriors tbqh

[SnakeBoy]

Yep.

We've seen how well a soulless technocrat who connects better with donors than voters and has no concrete policies that will plausibly make their lives any better, can do.

(Dukakis, Gore, Kerry, HRC, Dole, McCain, Romney)

fify

[Winehole23]

fify:tu

[rmt]

Seems each side is pessimistic. On one hand, Trump won't seem as scary (people afraid he'll push the nuclear buttons) and on the other, I don't see him winning FL. If this fiasco is going on for senator and governor races, it'll be all out war for president plus those millions/hundreds of thousands? of ex-felons voting. I'm hoping for a left, left, left wing candidate so that those in the middle don't want to go there. No Biden please.

[Will Hunting]

Seems each side is pessimistic. On one hand, Trump won't seem as scary (people afraid he'll push the nuclear buttons) and on the other, I don't see him winning FL. If this fiasco is going on for senator and governor races, it'll be all out war for president plus those millions/hundreds of thousands? of ex-felons voting. I'm hoping for a left, left, left wing candidate so that those in the middle don't want to go there. No Biden please.
A middle of the road Biden type candidate will ensure victory for Trump in Florida imo because the young voters/black voters who came out for Gilliam won’t turn out as much in 2020.

Even though Nelson got more votes than Gilliam I think the high turnout from Dems that made these close races (vs the typical midterm election in Florida that’s solid red) was because they were excited about a progressive far left guy. If Gilliam isn’t running I think Nelson probably loses by a few hundred thousand votes.

[rmt]

A middle of the road Biden type candidate will ensure victory for Trump in Florida imo because the young voters/black voters who came out for Gilliam won’t turn out as much in 2020.

Even though Nelson got more votes than Gilliam I think the high turnout from Dems that made these close races (vs the typical midterm election in Florida that’s solid red) was because they were excited about a progressive far left guy. If Gilliam isn’t running I think Nelson probably loses by a few hundred thousand votes.

How is it logical that it's Gillum driving the young/black votes when less people voted for Gillum/DeSantis than Nelson/Scott - especially with these so-called 20k ballots in Broward with no senate candidate chosen? I think it's Floridians - not being quite ready for Gillum's progressive Medicare for All, $15 minimum wage and Obamacare Medicaid expansion.

I think FL will be lost to Trump in 2020 and Biden would be formidable for Trump in PA, WI, and MI. But what do I know - I thought Hillary would win. Especially with Trump, 2 years out is an eternity.

[Will Hunting]

How is it logical that it's Gillum driving the young/black votes when less people voted for Gillum/DeSantis than Nelson/Scott - especially with these so-called 20k ballots in Broward with no senate candidate chosen? I think it's Floridians - not being quite ready for Gillum's progressive Medicare for All, $15 minimum wage and Obamacare Medicaid expansion.

I think FL will be lost to Trump in 2020 and Biden would be formidable for Trump in PA, WI, and MI. But what do I know - I thought Hillary would win. Especially with Trump, 2 years out is an eternity.
It’s logical because I’m saying Nelson got all of the down the ballot votes from young/black progressives who never vote in midterms but came out to vote for Gillum, while Nelson still got more votes because there’s still a faction of moderates who like Nelson but think Gillum is to far to the left.

Its similar to the seats that got flipped in Texas solely due to the voter turnout fueled by Beto.

[AaronY]

I think Biden would beat Trump tbh. I think people overrate trump

[hater]

I think Biden would beat Trump tbh. I think people overrate trump

:lmao

Thanks man needed a laugh. Crappy day

[AaronY]

:lmao

Thanks man needed a laugh. Crappy day
excellent counterpoint

[Will Hunting]

Biden would because he’d steal the white trash vote in PA/WI/MI back, but I don’t think he has any interest in running.

The biggest reason I say Trump is the favorite is because I think the Dems are going to fuck up and pick someone like Booker.

[Reck]

Biden would because he’d steal the white trash vote in PA/WI/MI back, but I don’t think he has any interest in running.

The biggest reason I say Trump is the favorite is because I think the Dems are going to fuck up and pick someone like Booker.

It's going to be hard to lose without hillary running. She was the worst candidate and she only still lost by a sum total of 70k or thereabout.

I like how Virginia, Nevada and a couple of other states are become more reliably democratic so the next dem candidate is going to have a better chance at winning those odd states that would otherwise be a republican get no question.

I would still try to avoid a Booker type though. Or any female candidate for that matter.

I think Biden could run on the account that the potential dem field is so shitty he's the only real answer, imo.

[Spurtacular]

excellent counterpoint

Certainly more excellent than the original point.

[baseline bum]

It's going to be hard to lose without hillary running. She was the worst candidate and she only still lost by a sum total of 70k or thereabout.

I like how Virginia, Nevada and a couple of other states are become more reliably democratic so the next dem candidate is going to have a better chance at winning those odd states that would otherwise be a republican get no question.

I would still try to avoid a Booker type though. Or any female candidate for that matter.

I think Biden could run on the account that the potential dem field is so shitty he's the only real answer, imo.

No one will give a shit about showing up to vote for Booker while Trump will still turn out his base. If you take Clinton's 2016 map and add Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin to it you get a razor thin victory for the Democrats with almost no room for error. If that's the Democrats' plan to run some pro business moderate who excites no one because they think they have the Clinton firewall back there is a great shot Trump gets re-elected. 2020 is in no way a slam dunk.

[SnakeBoy]

I think Biden would beat Trump tbh. I think people overrate trump

You know Biden ran for POTUS twice and each time when people got a good look at him they didn't like him. The good ole workin class Joe persona falls apart pretty quick when the spotlight is turned on.

[AaronY]

You know Biden ran for POTUS twice and each time when people got a good look at him they didn't like him. The good ole workin class Joe persona falls apart pretty quick when the spotlight is turned on.
Well if he doesn't get through the primaries is because hes not far left enough tbh. He would probably have to pledge to abolish private property to satisfy the Bernie Bros/boutons tards to get through the primaries. I want Michelle to run but I don't think she will

[SnakeBoy]

Well if he doesn't get through the primaries is because hes not far left enough tbh. He would probably have to pledge to abolish private property to satisfy the Bernie Bros/boutons tards to get through the primaries. I want Michelle to run but I don't think she will

What is it with liberals always wanting the wife to become the president too

[AaronY]

What is it with liberals always wanting the wife to become the president too
we're cucks who like being subservient to women

[SnakeBoy]

we're cucks who like being subservient to women

I appreciate your honesty

[AaronY]

I appreciate your honesty
This was the moment I became a huge fan:

"BOEHNER ON ... WHETHER HE EVER SAW OBAMA SNEAK A CIGARETTE

“Oh no. No no no. He’s scared to death of his wife. Scared. To. Death.”"

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/10/29/john-boehner-trump-house-republican-party-retirement-profile-feature-215741

if she can domineer the leader of the free world shes just the one to satisfy all of my humiliating cuck fantasies tbh

[hater]

That will be democrats big mistake in 2020 tbqh

They will assume victory because Shitlery is not there and will pick a token establishment negro or old fart which does not represent the liberal(bernie/beto) base

They will lose badly

[Will Hunting]

That will be democrats big mistake in 2020 tbqh

They will assume victory because Shitlery is not there and will pick a token establishment negro or old fart which does not represent the liberal(bernie/beto) base

They will lose badly
Bingo

[SnakeBoy]

That will be democrats big mistake in 2020 tbqh

They will assume victory because Shitlery is not there and will pick a token establishment negro or old fart which does not represent the liberal(bernie/beto) base

They will lose badly

I keep telling people they already picked the token establishment negro woman Kamala a year and a half ago. She's been earning her leftist creds since. They're just going to split up that bernie base in the primaries so their pick sails right through.

[CosmicCowboy]

Kamala V Trump could be a historically worst pathetic choice ever of Presidential elections.

[AaronY]

Kamala V Trump could be a historically worst pathetic choice ever of Presidential elections.
The Final Four in 2016 was Cruz, Trump, Bernie, and Hillary tbh

Anything is better than that unless Roy Moore and Bob Mendendez get involved

[DMC]

Well if he doesn't get through the primaries is because hes not far left enough tbh. He would probably have to pledge to abolish private property to satisfy the Bernie Bros/boutons tards to get through the primaries. I want Michelle to run but I don't think she will

If Michelle thinks Trump put her family in danger by doing the birther thing while she was in the fuckin' Whitehouse with secret service all around, she's damn sure not going to want to suffer through what he and others would do to them if she ran for office.

[dbestpro]

I know many of you will think this is crazy, but I would dust off Henry Cisneros and let him do his thing. He was always excellent at bringing people together. He has the experience and the ability. He just needs to move into the mainstream discussions.

[SnakeBoy]

I know many of you will think this is crazy, but I would dust off Henry Cisneros and let him do his thing. He was always excellent at bringing people together. He has the experience and the ability. He just needs to move into the mainstream discussions.

You're right, it's crazy.

[dbestpro]

You're right, it's crazy.

No crazier than Trump. Who would have thought that was going to happen 2 years before he was elected?

[SnakeBoy]

No crazier than Trump. Who would have thought that was going to happen 2 years before he was elected?

Well I can't argue with that but I think if there's going to be a surprise Dem candidate it will be Beto. Otherwise it's Kamala.

[Spurs Homer]

A criminal commits crimes until he is caught and prosecuted. How delusional does one have to be to think Trump will be free to run again in 2020?

[Nbadan]

Lets see what happens after the Dems beat him up for 2 years with investigations....

[FrostKing]

That will be democrats big mistake in 2020 tbqh

They will assume victory because Shitlery is not there and will pick a token establishment negro or old fart which does not represent the liberal(bernie/beto) base

They will lose badly
It could really go anyway

Establishment would likely be able to hold their own in debates and would be attractive to undecided

Young Dem could come off as far left radical - energizing the base but turning off undecided

[FrostKing]

Well I can't argue with that but I think if there's going to be a surprise Dem candidate it will be Beto. Otherwise it's Kamala.
Beto could work.

As for Kamala, Democrat from California is equal to Republican from Alabama - bad combo

[AntiChrist]

Lets see what happens after the Dems beat him up for 2 years with investigations....


This is a great strategy, tbh. :lmao

[FrostKing]

.

[BanditHiro]

Dems had a massive wave in the Midterm with an economy that is doing relatively well...Trump is beyond fucked going into 2020 tbh. He has not picked up any real support in fact might have lost support in the key swing states that pushed him over the edge.

[FrostKing]

Dems had a massive wave in the Midterm with an economy that is doing relatively well...Trump is beyond fucked going into 2020 tbh. He has not picked up any real support in fact might have lost support in the key swing states that pushed him over the edge.
Many people support Trump, not the GOP. Myself included. I prefer Republicans over Democrats but I support few of them....actually none other than Donald.

[Th'Pusher]

I keep telling people they already picked the token establishment negro woman Kamala a year and a half ago. She's been earning her leftist creds since. They're just going to split up that bernie base in the primaries so their pick sails right through.

Put up one of the household bread winner’s paychecks.

[Th'Pusher]

Kamala V Trump could be a historically worst pathetic choice ever of Presidential elections.

Stop pretending you’re not going to vote for trump in 2020

[Winehole23]

If Michelle thinks Trump put her family in danger by doing the birther thing while she was in the fuckin' Whitehouse with secret service all around, she's damn sure not going to want to suffer through what he and others would do to them if she ran for office.She probably has a much better idea than you what it would involve.

[Winehole23]

Stop pretending you’re not going to vote for trump in 2020Yep.

CC will always find some excuse to vote for the Republican, no matter how heinous he or she is, and that's ok.

That's what it means to have picked a side.

[SnakeBoy]

Yep.

CC will always find some excuse to vote for the Republican, no matter how heinous he or she is, and that's ok.

That's what it means to have picked a side.

Who did you vote for?

[Winehole23]

I voted against Republican dickheads, this time and the last. I will next time too.

Who did you vote for?

[CosmicCowboy]

Yep.

CC will always find some excuse to vote for the Republican, no matter how heinous he or she is, and that's ok.

That's what it means to have picked a side.

I didn't vote for Trump in 2016.

[Winehole23]

Me in 2016 vs. 2018


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DrSiouIUcAEmZ6j.jpg

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DrSiqPxU4AU1P_-.jpg

[Winehole23]

I didn't vote for Trump in 2016.You only flatter him by disdaining all others. got it.

[Reck]

I didn't vote for Trump in 2016.

LOL yes you did. Almost 3 years later and you're still denying that. :lol

:lol Votes for Cruz who you do not only dislike but hate but didn't vote for Trump but suck his dick daily. :tu legit

[Spurtacular]

LOL yes you did. Almost 3 years later and you're still denying that. :lol

:lol Votes for Cruz who you do not only dislike but hate but didn't vote for Trump but suck his dick daily. :tu legit

:lol Hillary voter acting up.

[Winehole23]

Close
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DqnGJjRVAAEIiWU.jpg:large

[CosmicCowboy]

LOL yes you did. Almost 3 years later and you're still denying that. :lol

:lol Votes for Cruz who you do not only dislike but hate but didn't vote for Trump but suck his dick daily. :tu legit

I really don't give a fuck what a loser like you thinks. Trump personally is a fucking embarrassment to moderate Republocans.

[Will Hunting]

CC said all along that he voted for Gary Johnson iirc

Claiming someone voted for person x when you have no evidence of it is pretty much as retarded as Rick Scott crying voter fraud without any evidence.

[BD24]

A beto/bernie ticket is probably the best bet for the dems. Not a whole lot of other strong candidates tbh.

[CosmicCowboy]

A beto/bernie ticket is probably the best bet for the dems. Not a whole lot of other strong candidates tbh.

So what's the Bernie/Beto platform?

[Spurminator]

So what's the Bernie/Beto platform?

"We're less embarrassing than the alternative."

[Will Hunting]

So what's the Bernie/Beto platform?
Should be single payer healthcare, a moderate immigration plan that does NOT include open borders, infrastructure and higher wages (and when I say higher wages, I mean higher wages via better jobs, not higher wages via higher minimum wage).

[CosmicCowboy]

Should be single payer healthcare, a moderate immigration plan that does NOT include open borders, infrastructure and higher wages (and when I say higher wages, I mean higher wages via better jobs, not higher wages via higher minimum wage).

How do you propose to pay for government health care for all?

[boutons_deux]

"We're less embarrassing than the alternative."

"We are not causing 10Ks injuries and deaths / year to humans and wildlife by denying health care, by increasing pollution, allowing hunting of everything, land developments, resource extraction, etc."

[CosmicCowboy]

Lmao Boos going after hunting now.

[Will Hunting]

How do you propose to pay for government health care for all?
The same way every other country pays for it. A defense budget that doesn’t waste hundreds of billions of dollars every year, and a tax code that actually taxes capital the primary source of income for rich people (cap gains).

[ElNono]

How do you propose to pay for government health care for all?

It's all BS, like "Hedge funds are going to take a hit"... people eat that for breakfast though...

[CosmicCowboy]

The same way every other country pays for it. A defense budget that doesn’t waste hundreds of billions of dollars every year, and a tax code that actually taxes capital the primary source of income for rich people (cap gains).

Sounds like some junior high economics. How do you reconcile discouraging investment with creating good jobs?

[Spurminator]

Why does an increase in capital gains taxes necessarily discourage investment?

If you made $500K on investments this year and had to pay, say, 30% of that in taxes instead of 15%, what are you doing with that money next year?

[CosmicCowboy]

You clowns actually think taxing cap gains at normal rates will pay for universal health care?

[CosmicCowboy]

Some serious boutons level wealth envy in here.

[Pavlov]

Every other country has it figured out but CC is the smart one.

[CosmicCowboy]

Every other country has it figured out but CC is the smart one.

They all have the same problem we have with escalating cost.

[Spurminator]

You clowns actually think taxing cap gains at normal rates will pay for universal health care?


Some serious boutons level wealth envy in here.

Some serious trigger response to a non-hostile question about capital gains, and not an answer.

[CosmicCowboy]

Some serious trigger response to a non-hostile question about capital gains, and not an answer.

Yes, there is a serious risk/reward with investing capital. It's not like some investment fairy automatically gives you a return. Decrease the reward with the same risk, decrease the incentive to invest.

[Spurminator]

Yes, there is a serious risk/reward with investing capital. It's not like some in investment fairy automatically gives you a return. Decrease the reward, decrease the incentive to invest.

So what, you're gonna just put cash in the mattress because keeping only 70% of earnings you might make isn't worth the risk? You're gonna go get a second job instead?

[Spurminator]

Decrease the reward on a specific investment category, and sure, people will move investments elsewhere. But an across-the-board reduction through a cap gains tax increase isn't going to suddenly disincentivize investing as a way to increase wealth.

[CosmicCowboy]

You could take 100% of capital gains and it still wouldn't pay for universal medicare.

[rmt]

Why does an increase in capital gains taxes necessarily discourage investment?

If you made $500K on investments this year and had to pay, say, 30% of that in taxes instead of 15%, what are you doing with that money next year?

Do you realize how much more money over the years, one makes not giving up double in taxes to the government and instead re-investing or speculating (say in bitcoin since some of you can't stand it) adds up to?

Capital gains at 15% encourages long term investment (or vice versa - depends on how you look at it). If they taxed long term capital gains the same rate as short-term (at ordinary income rates), I would guess that no one would be incentivized to keep assets for a long time and there would be much more volatility in the market - people would be more likely to buy and sell (day trade - since there's no incentive to hold long). If this were to happen, I would put all my money in rental houses, depreciate against my ordinary income and never sell (let the houses appreciate) and pass them on a stepped up basis to my kids - in essence, never pay taxes on that gain. Not to mention what that would do to real estate prices (drive them up further).

This will NEVER pass (by either Republicans or Democrats) - neither their donors or they themselves (seeing as most of them are rich and this would greatly affect them) would go for that.

[Stan]

You could take 100% of capital gains and it still wouldn't pay for universal medicare.
It’s gonna be fun watching you move those goalposts from one end to the other.

[Pavlov]

They all have the same problem we have with escalating cost.How much does it cost everywhere else compared to here, CC?

[Will Hunting]

Some serious boutons level wealth envy in here.
:lol please, I'll make roughly $325k this year (which goes a loooong way in Dallas when you don't have a wife or any kids). You're not the only rich person on this site.

[Spurminator]

You could take 100% of capital gains and it still wouldn't pay for universal medicare.

Sure, but subtract the $1+ trillion we currently pay for health care, and cut the waste from the military budget, and I'm confident we can find a way to make it work.

[Will Hunting]

You could take 100% of capital gains and it still wouldn't pay for universal medicare.
Why is it none of these other countries have issues paying for healthcare yet you're so convinced that it would be an out of control cost here?

[SnakeBoy]

lol we aren't getting single payer

Democrats wouldn't even support a public option

[rmt]

Why is it none of these other countries have issues paying for healthcare yet you're so convinced that it would be an out of control cost here?

They do not have the high cost of education - both undergrad and graduate. Nor do they correspondingly reward/pay them the way the US does. Nor do they have the legal system (prone to suing at the drop of a hat) that we do. Good luck taking on the educational, medical and legal systems. And hopefully, you guys can reconcile $15 minimum wage with specialists' wages and still keep those costs under control.

[Will Hunting]

They do not have the high cost of education - both undergrad and graduate. Nor do they correspondingly reward/pay them the way the US does. Nor do they have the legal system (prone to suing at the drop of a hat) that we do. Good luck taking on the educational, medical and legal systems. And hopefully, you guys can reconcile $15 minimum wage with specialists' wages and still keep those costs under control.
Yeah lowering the cost of education is something that can easily be and should be done.

Ill await proof that America’s medical malpractice laws are significantly more stringent than countries with single payer. There’s more lawsuits in America because American doctors are shittier and fuck up more often.

[Spurminator]

Why is it none of these other countries have issues paying for healthcare yet you're so convinced that it would be an out of control cost here?

Basically the answer to this question is going to be "Because America also does all of these other things that I, as a conservative, don't like."
:lol

[rmt]

Yeah lowering the cost of education is something that can easily be and should be done.

Ill await proof that America’s medical malpractice laws are significantly more stringent than countries with single payer. There’s more lawsuits in America because American doctors are shittier and fuck up more often.

How do yoy propose doing this?

[Will Hunting]

How do yoy propose doing this?
With respect to practicing medicine? That’s easy. Decrease the amount of education that’s needed and the time said that education takes.

[CosmicCowboy]

With respect to practicing medicine? That’s easy. Decrease the amount of education that’s needed and the time said that education takes.

You can have that doctor. I'll keep mine, thanks.

[TeyshaBlue]

:lol please, I'll make roughly $325k this year (which goes a loooong way in Dallas when you don't have a wife or any kids). You're not the only rich person on this site.
I'll loan you my wife and kids so you can see how the other half lives. :lol

[rmt]

With respect to practicing medicine? That’s easy. Decrease the amount of education that’s needed and the time said that education takes.


Yeah lowering the cost of education is something that can easily be and should be done.

Ill await proof that America’s medical malpractice laws are significantly more stringent than countries with single payer. There’s more lawsuits in America because American doctors are shittier and fuck up more often.

So you think that American doctors who are ALREADY "shittier and fuck up more often" should have less education and that'll bring them up to the standard/level of doctors from countries with single payer?

[rmt]

Forget about bringing the shittier American docs up to the single payer's doctors level - just give the new ones less education so that we can lower how much paying for their education will cost. Let's move on to pay - how do you tell specialists who are now earning hundreds of thousands of dollars that they have to accept 1/3 to 1/2 of what they earn now. Do you FORGIVE all their college/med school debt? How do you force the current specialists to work under single payer - pull their license if they don't? How do you stop them from going concierge?

[Will Hunting]

So you think that American doctors who are ALREADY "shittier and fuck up more often" should have less education and that'll bring them up to the standard/level of doctors from countries with single payer?
I think single payer motivates doctors to focus on the right stuff. Under single payer doctors don’t benefit from having patients who have 10 different ailments, 20 different prescriptions and multiple annual surgeries the doctors in America do. In our current healthcare system doctors effectively benefit from having unhealthy patients.

[AaronY]

lol we aren't getting single payer

Democrats wouldn't even support a public option
That was because of that phaggot lieberman. Besides we needed 60 votes then and I think you need only 50 now like with the tax plan which passed and the repeal attempt

[CosmicCowboy]

I think single payer motivates doctors to focus on the right stuff. Under single payer doctors don’t benefit from having patients who have 10 different ailments, 20 different prescriptions and multiple annual surgeries the doctors in America do. In our current healthcare system doctors effectively benefit from having unhealthy patients.

Yeah, they can just let them die and get their 10 o'clock tee time.

[rmt]

That was because of that phaggot lieberman. Besides we needed 60 votes then and I think you need only 50 now like with the tax plan which passed and the repeal attempt

I think 50 votes is the threshold for budgetary/money/tax issues (specifically for Obamacare - repealing the individual mandate). 60 votes are still need for non-monetary issues.

[AaronY]

I think 50 votes is the threshold for budgetary/money/tax issues (specifically for Obamacare - repealing the individual mandate). 60 votes are still need for non-monetary issues.
Really?!? lol no chance for it then if thats the case

[Will Hunting]

Yeah, they can just let them die and get their 10 o'clock tee time.
I'd much rather let 85 year old vegetables who can't do anything other than live in their own piss and shit die than spend trillions of dollars prolonging their life another 2-3 years the way we currently do.

[rmt]

I'd much rather let 85 year old vegetables who can't do anything other than live in their own piss and shit die than spend trillions of dollars prolonging their life another 2-3 years the way we currently do.

Do you want to live in your own piss and shit when it's your turn? What do you plan to do then? Commit suicide?

[Will Hunting]

Do you want to live in your own piss and shit when it's your turn? What do you plan to do then? Commit suicide?
Absolutely. When I’m 85 years old, bed ridden and need help wiping my ass, I would want to be put out of my misery.

[CosmicCowboy]

Absolutely. When I’m 85 years old, bed ridden and need help wiping my ass, I would want to be put out of my misery.

Why not start now?

[SnakeBoy]

Why not start now?

:lol

[SnakeBoy]

I think single payer motivates doctors to focus on the right stuff. Under single payer doctors don’t benefit from having patients who have 10 different ailments, 20 different prescriptions and multiple annual surgeries the doctors in America do. In our current healthcare system doctors effectively benefit from having unhealthy patients.

What's the right stuff?

[AaronY]

Why not start now?
careful you dont cut yourself on that edge there bro

[baseline bum]

They do not have the high cost of education - both undergrad and graduate. Nor do they correspondingly reward/pay them the way the US does. Nor do they have the legal system (prone to suing at the drop of a hat) that we do. Good luck taking on the educational, medical and legal systems. And hopefully, you guys can reconcile $15 minimum wage with specialists' wages and still keep those costs under control.

LMAO at a Trumptard complaining about suing at the drop of a hat. :lol

[DMC]

I'd much rather let 85 year old vegetables who can't do anything other than live in their own piss and shit die than spend trillions of dollars prolonging their life another 2-3 years the way we currently do.

I agree with you but this is often considered Nazi policy. We spend billions to keep vegetative bodies in stasis so loved ones in denial can feel better about it, or for whatever other reason. When my wife got sick, I knew she wasn't really responding. I waited a couple days and told them to pull the plug. They said "it's only a gall bladder operation". So?

[SnakeBoy]

I agree with you but this is often considered Nazi policy. We spend billions to keep vegetative bodies in stasis so loved ones in denial can feel better about it, or for whatever other reason. When my wife got sick, I knew she wasn't really responding. I waited a couple days and told them to pull the plug. They said "it's only a gall bladder operation". So?

You should've tried this


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b9w1mLzbiWk

[ElNono]

Yes, there is a serious risk/reward with investing capital. It's not like some investment fairy automatically gives you a return. Decrease the reward with the same risk, decrease the incentive to invest.

Arguably, there's the same or even more risk with labor, and that income gets taxed at the usual rates too. Frankly, if we're being straightforward about it, the main reason for incentivizing capital investment is that the entire financial sector benefits from transaction fees and portfolio management.

[ElNono]

They all have the same problem we have with escalating cost.

They do, but it's much less pronounced than the US:

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/0a/Health_care_cost_rise.svg/350px-Health_care_cost_rise.svg.png

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_total_health_expenditure_per_ capita

The US system is already basically largely socialized. What's saved from having healthy people on private insurance is lost by having by far the largest insurer (the government) be unable to negotiate better prices.

[ElNono]

They do not have the high cost of education - both undergrad and graduate. Nor do they correspondingly reward/pay them the way the US does. Nor do they have the legal system (prone to suing at the drop of a hat) that we do. Good luck taking on the educational, medical and legal systems. And hopefully, you guys can reconcile $15 minimum wage with specialists' wages and still keep those costs under control.

German college education is entirely funded by the Government. So government foots that bill too there, what's the next excuse?

A Doctorate in Australia runs about $11,000... $21,000 in the US. Do you really think Aussie doctors are much worse than Americans? Heck, the US is importing Indian doctors all the time, that's the healthcare/level of education you're getting. College costs in the US are incredibly overinflated simply because muh free market, price to bear, and high availability of credit. It's a great business, but eventually the greediness in those areas does a disservice to the country.

[ElNono]

There's so many ways to tackle this that wouldn't require full blown socialized healthcare...

One idea, out of many out there: Instead of having doctors do their internship in for-profit hospitals, have them work on government-run clinics for a couple years, fresh out of college, salaried, treating the same patients that will end up in an emergency room, where the hospital is going to recoup the money from the government anyways for an overinflated fee. Throw in free vaccination (with government capping the profit of the vaccine, since they're the largest customer) which is actually a net positive for society in general and reduced other costs long term. If clinics grow too popular and you need more docs, increase the pay or import them, like the private sector already does. You largely already control salaries by the mandate that freshmen doctors bid a limited time serving the public (for a living wage), the rest is balancing demand. Another idea: incentivize getting a medical degree or doctors attending these clinics by paying down the doctor's education through service in these clinics. Lastly, mandate catastrophic insurance coverage for the working population.

This:
- Reduces emergency room visits for basic care, and the reimbursements government has to do at emergency room rates for basic care. Hospitals are free to divert patients to the clinics once the patient is in a stable condition for followups, etc.

- Removes the need for a fully comprehensive insurance policy, since basic care would be covered and freely available. Insurance companies can still stay in business and make money through catastrophic insurance (less money, but money nonetheless)

- Doctors and private practices compete on quality paid vs subsidized services, in a race to the bottom which is how costs come down in every other industry (even in the free market, see companies undercutting themselves all the time, or offering quality as extra value. That's choice).

- Hospitals can focus on complex, catastrophic care. If you think about it, it's ridiculous that in this day and age they still see people for an ear infection, or the common cold, etc.

- Largely tackles the vast majority of doctor's visits (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3564521/), 2/3 of which are for chronic conditions, such as patients with diabetes or hearth conditions, which require constant checkups, but generally don't end up requiring complex care.

- Medicare and Medicaid would become just a subsidy to pay for the catastrophic insurance (you could even group them for extra savings), and prescription drugs (copay or no copay on this, debatable depending on income, etc).

- Retains the Hospital vs Insurance battle for lower costs, but outside of basic care. One of the weak points of this plan is that Hospitals might be tempted to charge outrageous prices for complex services, but the dynamic of the insurance company trying to get the best deal would fight it off.

Any patient that wants to see their own doctor and pay out of pocket for basic service, let them. You can grow a cottage private sector industry of concierge basic healthcare, like many countries have. The fact that they have to compete against standardized care, means they need to focus on quality, service and tangible benefits to the patients, but the fact that some people will choose for this option, removes pressure on the public system. This doesn't even touch pharma (except the vaccine part, but another can of worms that has another diverse amount of ideas to tackle), largely refocuses insurance and hospitals, and still delegates a role for the private sector, while giving peace of mind to a large section of the population.

There's lots ideas like these, and different countries have taken different approaches to it. Would a system like this be substantially more expensive than what we already pay for Medicare, Medicaid, subsidies to Hospitals and out of pockets prices? Debatable. There's tangible ideas there to bring down specific costs. It specifically tries to tackle the fact that while it makes sense that complex, specific care is very expensive, basic care should not be, but it is right now. A broken finger that doesn't require surgery is treated the same in every country, but in the US can easily run you in the thousands of dollars, from emergency room visit, to x-rays, to followups.

My 2c. In before TL/DR...

[rmt]

Arguably, there's the same or even more risk with labor, and that income gets taxed at the usual rates too. Frankly, if we're being straightforward about it, the main reason for incentivizing capital investment is that the entire financial sector benefits from transaction fees and portfolio management.

The (opposite) result of raising long term capital gains is that the market might become static - as in people invest but never sell: less transaction fees, portfolio management, movement, volatility. No selling = no gains/taxes. Regardless, capital gains taxes will not pay for single payer. That's a whole 'nother ballgame. If people contribute their whole working life to Medicare and it's using current workers' contribution and will still be in trouble in 2028?, why in the world would anyone think that you could cover everybody and still keep costs under control (knowing that if something's free, the demand for it goes up)?

[ElNono]

The (opposite) result of raising long term capital gains is that the market might become static - as in people invest but never sell: less transaction fees, portfolio management, movement, volatility. No selling = no gains/taxes. Regardless, capital gains taxes will not pay for single payer. That's a whole 'nother ballgame. If people contribute their whole working life to Medicare and it's using current workers' contribution and will still be in trouble in 2028?, why in the world would anyone think that you could cover everybody and still keep costs under control (knowing that if something's free, the demand for it goes up)?

That's actually what the market was for the longest time, a long term investment tool. Not only there's nothing wrong with that, it contributed to perhaps the biggest growth the US has seen in it's history.

I didn't make the claim capital gain taxes would pay for single-payor, so I'm not going to defend it. I posted something more akin to a comprehensive healthcare reform. The answer to your question is pretty simple: the US, so far, hasn't tackled cost.

Healthcare is, unavoidably, something people will always need sooner or later, especially later. It's a very specific market, since the demand is not equal at any age. As such, you'll find two competing interests, one is cost, the other is access. Left to it's own devices, it will price itself to a mean where most people can afford it, but not everyone can, especially those that require it the most. That's why the typical free market approach to it never worked (including in the US, where the 'ugly' part is entirely socialized).

So you can't run away from what the market is, what you can do is find the right combination of incentives and tools to actually manage that market. Service providers are interested in turning a profit, the government (and by extension, the people) are interested in access. They're both valid goals, and neither should be above the other. This is something most every other country figured out a long time ago, and, imperfectly, tried to balance. The US has just been slow in identifying a solution that's both efficient with tax dollars and provides a modicum of peace of mind.

While Obamacare is incredibly flawed, didn't address the cost problem, and only tried to tackle access, at least it shook the status quo, and removed healthcare reform from it's old 'untouchable' status. We'll see if we use that extremely flawed system as a stepping stone to something better.

[Will Hunting]

By the way, the first step in Trump getting re-elected would be Pelosi getting voted in again as speaker of the house.

[CosmicCowboy]

Arguably, there's the same or even more risk with labor, and that income gets taxed at the usual rates too. Frankly, if we're being straightforward about it, the main reason for incentivizing capital investment is that the entire financial sector benefits from transaction fees and portfolio management.

Capital gains don't just apply to equities. it also affects real estate, small businesses, and other alternative investments. Many of the tech startups on state of the art stuff we rely on now were created by angel investors taking huge risks in hopes of later long term capital gains.

[CosmicCowboy]

German college education is entirely funded by the Government. So government foots that bill too there, what's the next excuse?

A Doctorate in Australia runs about $11,000... $21,000 in the US. Do you really think Aussie doctors are much worse than Americans? Heck, the US is importing Indian doctors all the time, that's the healthcare/level of education you're getting. College costs in the US are incredibly overinflated simply because muh free market, price to bear, and high availability of credit. It's a great business, but eventually the greediness in those areas does a disservice to the country.

The German government also decides who does and doesn't go to this "free" college.

I do agree that US college education is obscenely expensive and lengthy. Part of that is the "required' classes where half of the classes that one is required to pay for have nothing to do with the degree being sought.

[Will Hunting]

The German government also decides who does and doesn't go to this "free" college.

I do agree that US college education is obscenely expensive and lengthy. Part of that is the "required' classes where half of the classes that one is required to pay for have nothing to do with the degree being sought.
Agreed. It’s retarded that someone who majors in a STEM field like physics or math has to take a certain amount of “humanities” classes.

[rmt]

By the way, the first step in Trump getting re-elected would be Pelosi getting voted in again as speaker of the house.

Imo, Pelosi not going after Trump via endless investigations will get Trump to the table willing to negotiate on infrastructure - although the House pretty much is more polarized (the moderate/never Trumpers gone leaving the more right). A far left speaker, otoh, guarantees nothing getting done the next 2 years. Now, as to which option will help get Trump re-elected, we can respectfully disagree on.

[rmt]

The German government also decides who does and doesn't go to this "free" college.

I do agree that US college education is obscenely expensive and lengthy. Part of that is the "required' classes where half of the classes that one is required to pay for have nothing to do with the degree being sought.

I can see it now - "Sorry, you didn't score such and such so you CAN'T go into xxxxx." Imagine the affirmative action issues with the government deciding who gets to go into what and throwing in race on top of that. I don't think Americans are ready for being tracked into certain vocations much less being told what they can and cannot do.

[Will Hunting]

Imo, Pelosi not going after Trump via endless investigations will get Trump to the table willing to negotiate on infrastructure - although the House pretty much is more polarized (the moderate/never Trumpers gone leaving the more right). A far left speaker, otoh, guarantees nothing getting done the next 2 years. Now, as to which option will help get Trump re-elected, we can respectfully disagree on.
I’m not saying they need a far left speaker, I’m saying they need a speaker not named Nancy Pelosi :lol

[baseline bum]

I’m not saying they need a far left speaker, I’m saying they need a speaker not named Nancy Pelosi :lol

Meh if anyone else get the speaker position they'll be vilified just like Pelosi. Left, center left, center, they'll all be Stalin to Clear Channel, Fox News, and Sinclair, and thus to the right wing base too.

[Will Hunting]

Meh if anyone else get the speaker position they'll be vilified just like Pelosi. Left, center left, center, they'll all be Stalin to Clear Channel, Fox News, and Sinclair, and thus to the right wing base too.
I don’t care about the fact she’s vilified by the right, I care more about the fact she’s completely unappealing to young voters who Democrats need to turn out in 2020.

[baseline bum]

The German government also decides who does and doesn't go to this "free" college.

I do agree that US college education is obscenely expensive and lengthy. Part of that is the "required' classes where half of the classes that one is required to pay for have nothing to do with the degree being sought.

Their approach is much better in that you really have to earn your spot in high school instead of our retarded system that tries to push every single student to college. And if you don't earn your spot in high school you can do an apprenticeship and earn your way into college. We'd be so much better off taking the German system as our model where high school kids not in the college track still learn useful vocational skills. American public education is great if you're college material (especially with AP classes) but just babysitting otherwise. It would be nice if our public schools taught things like plumbing, sheet metal, electric, truck driving, etc so everyone would come out of our schools with something useful.

[Will Hunting]

Their approach is much better in that you really have to earn your spot in high school instead of our retarded system that tries to push every single student to college. And if you don't earn your spot in high school you can do an apprenticeship and earn your way into college. We'd be so much better off taking the German system as our model where high school kids not in the college track still learn useful vocational skills. American public education is great if you're college material (especially with AP classes) but just babysitting otherwise. It would be nice if our public schools taught things like plumbing, sheet metal, electric, truck driving, etc so everyone would come out of our schools with something useful.
I still remember the one non-AP class I took my senior year (US History, just because the AP class for US History would have meant I couldn’t do half days) when the end of year project was everyone preparing a budget for how they planned to live on 8-9 bucks an hour :lmao

[baseline bum]

I don’t care about the fact she’s vilified by the right, I care more about the fact she’s completely unappealing to young voters who Democrats need to turn out in 2020.

She passed the good version of the ACA that actually addressed costs despite enormous Republican opposition. She is unappealing because of opposition campaigns from Republicans. They'll run the same thing against anyone else who gets the job. I don't want to end up with some impotent asshole like Harry Reid who completely botched healthcare in the senate leading the house. I'll take Pelosi in the speakership since she gets shit done. The choice for president is what's going to drive turnout in 2020 and that's where they can't go establishment.

[baseline bum]

I still remember the one non-AP class I took my senior year (US History, just because the AP class for US History would have meant I couldn’t do half days) when the end of year project was everyone preparing a budget for how they planned to live on 8-9 bucks an hour :lmao

Did you say you'd knock some bitch up so you could be eligible for Medicaid in that exercise? :lol

[pgardn]

Agreed. It’s retarded that someone who majors in a STEM field like physics or math has to take a certain amount of “humanities” classes.

Mildly disagree as a Molecular Biology major and Biochemistry Masters.

Some of my best teachers and most interesting classes were History, Government, and a Foreign Affairs elective. But I purposely chose the best teachers I knew of at UT for these subjects. I did not wander off to ACC or SAC to just get it over with. I must add that it was not that much more expensive however. So bang for the buck is a consideration if all you are after is $.

Doing what you like is even more important however. If you wake up Monday- Friday (Sat-Sun if needed) not wanting to work, have a good life.... Some people wanna go home to a big ole house and grouse about going to work, F that. The most content people I have met love their jobs. What is sad is not being able to get trained to do what you are really interested in. Because deep interest leads to persistence and resourcefulness. The best workers just get it done and relish in each accomplishment.

[Winehole23]

By the way, the first step in Trump getting re-elected would be Pelosi getting voted in again as speaker of the house.The second would be impeaching him.

[rmt]

I still remember the one non-AP class I took my senior year (US History, just because the AP class for US History would have meant I couldn’t do half days) when the end of year project was everyone preparing a budget for how they planned to live on 8-9 bucks an hour :lmao

Don't know when you graduated but for my recent hs graduate, it was a plan to live on $50k. Maybe they're taking into consideration bou's $25 min wage :-)

[Reck]

Someone made a good point about Pelosi, dont remember who but they said in a time where women just got elected to congress in masse, replacing her with a man would not only look bad but be a mistake.

The results are in, imo. The majority of Americans want Trump the fuck outta there.

[Will Hunting]

Don't know when you graduated but for my recent hs graduate, it was a plan to live on $50k. Maybe they're taking into consideration bou's $25 min wage :-)
I graduated in 2008....in hindsight the project was effectively the prelude to a financial crisis :lol

[baseline bum]

Someone made a good point about Pelosi, dont remember who but they said in a time where women just got elected to congress in masse, replacing her with a man would not only look bad but be a mistake.

The results are in, imo. The majority of Americans want Trump the fuck outta there.

I'd much prefer Pelosi to someone like Adam Schiff being the speaker.

[rmt]

Someone made a good point about Pelosi, dont remember who but they said in a time where women just got elected to congress in masse, replacing her with a man would not only look bad but be a mistake.

The results are in, imo. The majority of Americans want Trump the fuck outta there.

I don't know about that. Trump hand picked DeSantis who will probably hold on to that 30k lead.

[baseline bum]

I don't know about that. Trump hand picked DeSantis who will probably hold on to that 30k lead.

The majority of American voters didn't want Trump in the first place.

[rmt]

The majority of American voters didn't want Trump in the first place.

He said "Americans" - not voters - we don't know if that statement is true because many did not vote.

[CosmicCowboy]

Their approach is much better in that you really have to earn your spot in high school instead of our retarded system that tries to push every single student to college. And if you don't earn your spot in high school you can do an apprenticeship and earn your way into college. We'd be so much better off taking the German system as our model where high school kids not in the college track still learn useful vocational skills. American public education is great if you're college material (especially with AP classes) but just babysitting otherwise. It would be nice if our public schools taught things like plumbing, sheet metal, electric, truck driving, etc so everyone would come out of our schools with something useful.

I wasn't saying the German system was bad...just that they control who does what...They don't put up with that "remedial" shit like we do in the US...If you can't go into college ready to do college work you don't go to college...that being said, they have awesome trade schools for alternative career paths.

[pgardn]

I wasn't saying the German system was bad...just that they control who does what...They don't put up with that "remedial" shit like we do in the US...If you can't go into college ready to do college work you don't go to college...that being said, they have awesome trade schools for alternative career paths.

And big agreement here.

Some kids start out slow and are culled in the German system at an early age. By the time some kids mature, they are relatively stuck in something they were chosen for at middle school age. That's not smart. But we may be doing things horribly backwards by continuing to shove college down everyone's throat. And our "trade schools" in HS are absolutely horrid from what I witnessed. They were holding tanks for kids who could not behave taught by teachers who did not really want to be a part of warehousing immature male teenagers.

[CosmicCowboy]

And big agreement here.

Some kids start out slow and are culled in the German system at an early age. By the time some kids mature, they are relatively stuck in something they were chosen for at middle school age. That's not smart. But we may be doing things horribly backwards by continuing to shove college down everyone's throat. And our "trade schools" in HS are absolutely horrid from what I witnessed. They were holding tanks for kids who could not behave taught by teachers who did not really want to be a part of warehousing immature male teenagers.

Even the trade schools after high school leave a lot to be desired. I get job applicants all the time that "graduated" from 2 year welding schools that can't freaking weld.

[SnakeBoy]

While Obamacare is incredibly flawed, didn't address the cost problem, and only tried to tackle access, at least it shook the status quo, and removed healthcare reform from it's old 'untouchable' status. We'll see if we use that extremely flawed system as a stepping stone to something better.

I'm not so sure about that. Democrats got passed the ACA and got wiped out. Will they be willing to fall on the sword again once they regain power?

The public option was the real stepping stone.