Politico reads the tea leaves in Italy's failed election: advantage to the far right

[Winehole23]

Matteo Salvini may not have won the election. But in the maneuvering that followed Italy’s inconclusive March 4 parliamentary poll, the Euroskeptic leader of the far-right League party has emerged as his country’s fastest rising political star.

As party leaders struggle to form a government, the sweatshirt-wearing populist has often taken center-stage — courted as a coalition partner by the anti-establishment 5Star Movement (https://www.politico.eu/article/italy-5-star-movement-call-for-new-election/) or asking, as he did Monday, for a mandate from Italian President Sergio Mattarella to try to secure the parliamentary majority needed to govern.
https://www.politico.eu/article/matteo-salvini-italy-populist-in-chief-league-far-right/

[Winehole23]

The worst-case scenario for Italy’s inconclusive general election is unfolding. Five Star Movement and the Northern League – both anti-establishment parties – are on the verge of forming a coalition government. Although they sit on opposite sides of the political spectrum, they share two common ideologies: antipathy to the euro and a desire for aggressive fiscal stimulus.https://blog.principal.com/2018/05/24/short-and-sharp-italian-risk-takes-center-stage-again/

[Winehole23]

Five Star, the biggest party in Parliament, sees itself as an anti-corruption movement and advocates many economic reforms championed by the Left in Italy. These include a reform of pensions and a guaranteed minimum income and a rejection of austerity. The Lega, formerly the secessionist Northern League, now concentrates on a more narrowly racist and Eurosceptic agenda. More experienced than their allies, the Lega served in government during the Berlusconi years and at the time advocated many traditional conservative economic policies. The two parties have little in common beyond their dislike of the EU and their claims to populism, but they have somehow managed to cobble together a governing program including restoration of pensions, tax cuts, and a basic income for Italy’s poor.https://www.socialeurope.eu/the-italian-election-and-us-underpinning-of-populism

[Winehole23]

[Giuseppe Conte's] dodgy claims were by no means the only reasons for doubting whether he was up to the task. He will be Italy’s fifth unelected prime minister in a row. He has no experience of politics. Yet, if endorsed by parliament, he will soon be negotiating for his country at the European Council and with big hitters like Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin.https://www.economist.com/europe/2018/05/26/a-bizarre-new-government-takes-shape-in-italy

[boutons_deux]

the rise of the European far right, with emboldened xenophobia, racism, white nationalism, authoritarianism (sound familiar?) is directly due to the huge influx of refugees from the Middle East into Europe

which is directly due to

Repugs / BigOil lying their way into invading Iraq to grab Saddam's oil, de-stabilizing the Middle East

Thanks, Repugs

and Farage's big selling points for Brexit was also racism hiding behind his admitted lie of how much UK paid Europe.

[Winehole23]

how do immigration and "wars for oil" explain the rise of the 5 star movement?

[boutons_deux]

how do immigration and "wars for oil" explain the rise of the 5 star movement?

http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=273699&p=9400736&viewfull=1#post9400736

[Winehole23]

well, they don't

[boutons_deux]

well, they don't

Catholic Italy's extreme right wing nut populism/nationalism (eg, Mussolini) has been inflamed, emboldened by the long-time, unending influx from Muslim Africa, including USA-regime-changed Libya (thanks, Hillary!).

[hater]

Hope and Change tbqh

We will see how it goes

Good luck to the young government

[Winehole23]

Catholic Italy's extreme right wing nut populism/nationalism (eg, Mussolini) has been inflamed, emboldened by the long-time, unending influx from Muslim Africa, including USA-regime-changed Libya (thanks, Hillary!).that sort of describes Lega Nord, 5 Star, not so much.

[Nathan89]

It's actually a consequence of white guilt and self hatred that has infected the left of the west. They didn't have to take those refugees. Japan told them to fuck off. Trump told them to fuck off. Others open their arms to them at their own expense. They should be going to culturally compatible countries.

[Winehole23]

Sorry, still doesn't explain the 5 Star movement.

Have you considered that there might be disadvantages to using one explanation for everything?

(Boutons suffers from this too.)

[hater]

It's actually a consequence of white guilt and self hatred that has infected the left of the west. They didn't have to take those refugees. Japan told them to fuck off. Trump told them to fuck off. Others open their arms to them at their own expense. They should be going to culturally compatible countries.

The West should be bombing culturally compatibe countries then.

Go bomb Norway or Sweden tbqh. If you dont then get used to the black plage coming and having relations with your white sisters and daughters

[Nathan89]

The West should be bombing culturally compatibe countries then.

Go bomb Norway or Sweden tbqh. If you dont then get used to the black plage coming and having relations with your white sisters and daughters

Regardless of whether or not this is the result of intervention of the West it's still moronic to welcome so many of these people.

[hater]

Regardless of whether or not this is the result of intervention of the West it's still moronic to welcome so many of these people.

Its mor moronic to bomb them

Dont bomb them or regime change them and this will not even be an issue

Its like being annoyed about your house smelling when you have dead bodies piled up on your couch.

[Winehole23]

Matarelli appoints a technocrat, bond yields spike:


On Tuesday, Italian bonds had their worst day in Eurozone existence, even worse than any day during the worst periods of the 2011 debt crisis. And this comes after they’d already gotten crushed on Monday, and after they’d gotten crushed last week. And this happened even as the ECB is carrying on its QE program, including the purchase of Italian government bonds; and even as it pursues its negative-interest-rate policy (NIRP). As bond prices plunge, yields spike by definition, and the spike in the two-year yield was spectacular, going from 0.3% on Monday morning to 2.73% on Tuesday end of day:
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/000NIRP.png

But note that until May 26, the two-year yield was still negativeas part of the ECB’s interest rate repression. On that fateful day, the two-year yield finallycrossed the red line into positive territory.
To this day, it remains inexplicable why the ECB decided that Italian yields with maturities of two years or less should be negative – that investors, or rather pension beneficiaries, etc., who own these misbegotten bonds, would need to paythe Italian government, one of the most indebted in the world, for the privilege of lending it money. But that scheme came totally unhinged just now.



The 10-year Italian government bond yield preformed a similar if not quite as spectacular a feat. Over Monday and Tuesday, it went from 2.37% to 3.18%:
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/001NIRP.png

[Winehole23]

who's got the turd in their briefcase?


despite years of the ECB’s multi-trillion euro QE program, which is scheduled to come to an end soon, the so-called “Doom Loop” is still very much alive and kicking in Italy. The doom loop is when weakening government bonds threaten to topple the banks that own the bonds, and in turn, the banks start offloading them, which causes these bonds to fall further, thus pushing the government to the brink. The doom loop is a particular problem in the Eurozone since a member state doesn’t control its own currency, and cannot print itself out of trouble, which leaves it exposed to credit risk.https://wolfstreet.com/2018/05/27/which-banks-are-most-exposed-to-italys-sovereign-debt-other-than-the-horribly-exposed-italian-banks/

[Winehole23]

OK, normalization can be painful after years of NIRP. But just today – on the worst day for Italian bonds in Eurozone history – the government was able to sell €5.5 billion ($6.4 billion) six-month bills maturing in November 2018, at an average yield of 1.21%.

Let that 1.21% stew for a moment. In the US, today, the 6-month yield closed at 2.06%! So the Italian government is still borrowing at a lesser cost than the US government. Italy’s yield normalization has a long ways to go!

This was up from a negative yield of -0.42% at the prior six-month auction at the end of April. Oh my, how it hurts to have to pay interest on borrowed money, rather than getting paid for borrowing. I can hear the wailing and gnashing of teeth in Rome and in the markets around the world.

This six-month yield had reached an all-time high of 8.65% in November of 2011 and an all-time idiotic low of -0.48% in November last year. It needs to be way higher than it is today to account for at least some of the risks.

[boutons_deux]

(Boutons suffers from this too.)

You Lie, The Great Boutons Don't Suffer, he smites others with O such great suffering.

N89 is one of the American nativist/racist/chauvinist/xenophobe dumbfucks amont the 63M nativist/racist/chauvinist/xenophobe dumbfucks who elected Trash.

Anybody heard of Middle Easterners and Africaners trying to get into Japan, escaping the Repug's geopolitically fucking up the M/E for BigOil?