SFS 2018 Hurricane Season Thread

[Darth_Pelican]

SpursforSix (http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=49684) , you did a great job sharing your knowledge about Tropical Systems last year, so I wanted to get this thread started as we enter the season.

First disturbance doesn't look like much:

[SpursforSix]

Thank you. I am just now beginning my research on global temps, trends, etc. But will certainly inform when necessary.

BTW...good call on Cobra Kai.

Watched the first two last night and was hooked. Is there a way to watch the rest for free? Or do I need to sign up for You Tube Red?

[Darth_Pelican]

Thank you. I am just now beginning my research on global temps, trends, etc. But will certainly inform when necessary.

BTW...good call on Cobra Kai.

Watched the first two last night and was hooked. Is there a way to watch the rest for free? Or do I need to sign up for You Tube Red?

I streamed the rest of them the unethical way. Just google Cobra Kai free online stream.... you'll get plenty of hits. You'll just have to deal with the annoying popups at first. Or, you can do the free 30 day YouTube Red trial and then cancel it.

[SpursforSix]

I streamed the rest of them the unethical way. Just google Kobra Kai free online stream.... you'll get plenty of hits. You'll just have to deal with the annoying popups at first. Or, you can do the free 30 day YouTube Red trial and then cancel it.

I tried through Terrarium but something is f'd up. I have a play button for movies but on the TV shows, there's no obvious way to play them.
I'm trying to do this on my FireBox so it's kind of a pain in the ass to use the internet browsers. I just signed up for YTR to finish the show.
I'm sure I'll forget to cancel but maybe they'll have something else worth watching.

[benefactor]

Solid thread:tu

I'm more of an enthusiast but I'll try to support SFS here when I can. I also recommend following Jeff Masters blog on Weather Underground. He spent years with the Hurricane Hunters and there's very little he does not now about the nuances of tropical system development.

[Robz4000]

First named storm of the season is Alberto and is expected to roll into the Gulf of Mexico and make lano fall anywhere between New Orleans and Panama City.

[SpursforSix]

First named storm of the season is Alberto and is expected to roll into the Gulf of Mexico and make lano fall anywhere between New Orleans and Panama City.

agreed

[spurraider21]

agreed
thanks for confirmation :tu

[SpursforSix]

I think a reforming of the center is possible, maybe even likely as this continues to organize. The mid and lower level centers are disjointed so I wouldn't be surprised to see a jump as it tries to get vertically stacked over time. It isn't going to be easy with strong shear currently over the low but the shear should gradually drop over the weekend. Waiting for recon...

[benefactor]

I think a reforming of the center is possible, maybe even likely as this continues to organize. The mid and lower level centers are disjointed so I wouldn't be surprised to see a jump as it tries to get vertically stacked over time. It isn't going to be easy with strong shear currently over the low but the shear should gradually drop over the weekend. Waiting for recon...
Yeah I think the shear will keep it from strengthening too much before landfall. Probably wind up a strong tropical storm/weak cat 1.

[BD24]

Is there anything SFS doesn't know about or cant do tbh?

The expert the club needed

[pgardn]

Last year was bonzo with those live feeds from Rockport.
One of the Ice Stations chaser dude stopped at is still boarded up. Probably because Key Allegro is still undergoing repairs.

[DeadlyDynasty]

As long as they all hit Haiti I'm happy

[benefactor]

Last year was bonzo with those live feeds from Rockport.
One of the Ice Stations chaser dude stopped at is still boarded up. Probably because Key Allegro is still undergoing repairs.
...that dude that got caught in the car wash...Jesus.

I'd still be having nightmares about that shit.

[SpursforSix]

Yes, what we had last year unusual in that it occurred and then in between the feeds the storm had intensity and of. Purse afterword the winds as a metaphor highlighted by what we were able to glean from the things that get together. Out of the last 20 or so and being able to correlate using statistics and birds of prey what we remember is the lesson that was to be learned.

It reminded me of the storms of earlier times when it was talking about what the most feasible way to accomplish going to the store while yet. And always having the radio nearby passing underwneath just to see how egregious one may or may not be in light of....everything.

[Robz4000]

Yes, what we had last year unusual in that it occurred and then in between the feeds the storm had intensity and of. Purse afterword the winds as a metaphor highlighted by what we were able to glean from the things that get together. Out of the last 20 or so and being able to correlate using statistics and birds of prey what we remember is the lesson that was to be learned.

It reminded me of the storms of earlier times when it was talking about what the most feasible way to accomplish going to the store while yet. And always having the radio nearby passing underwneath just to see how egregious one may or may not be in light of....everything.

Spoken like a true expert :tu

[UNT Eagles 2016]

Yeah I think the shear will keep it from strengthening too much before landfall. Probably wind up a strong tropical storm/weak cat 1.

Cat 1 US landfall would still be VERY impressive for late May/early June. Very typical disjointed system for this time of year.

Not necessarily a harbinger for an active or inactive season though. In 2005 we had Arlene in early June, similar to 2006's Alberto, one was the GOAT hurricane season the other was below average.

What you want to look for as we get into June is strong waves off the coast of Africa. If they roll off the Cape Verde area strong and become development threats in the month of June, whether they actually develop or not, that's a ominous sign we're in for a long season like 2004 or last year.

[UNT Eagles 2016]

Solid thread:tu

I'm more of an enthusiast but I'll try to support SFS here when I can. I also recommend following Jeff Masters blog on Weather Underground. He spent years with the Hurricane Hunters and there's very little he does not now about the nuances of tropical system development.
Followed that blog since 2005. It used to be really fun until the moderators came and turned it into a commie zone.

[Darth_Pelican]

It's been a pretty uneventful start to hurricane season but we're entering the 2 most active months. There's a Cat 4 heading near Hawaii but looks like it will miss it.

https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/nXDjxab9r7bGXLnrwrztTg--~A/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjtzbT0xO3c9NjA4O2g9MzQyO2lsPX BsYW5l/https://s.abcnews.com/images/US/hurricane-path-abc-mo-20180807_hpEmbed_16x9_608.jpg

[benefactor]

Looks like Lane is going to give Hawaii a pretty close brush. Strong storm and could cause a lot of flooding. It's hard to predict how close with the lack of steering currents.

[SpursforSix]

. It's hard to predict how close with the lack of steering currents.

Not really...it's just a matter of knowing the valid inputs for your model.

[Darth_Pelican]

Biloxi about to get hit with a cat 1

[Blake]

Not really...it's just a matter of knowing the valid inputs for your model.

But what if it was an Islamic hurricane

[Blake]

Good time to take kids to beach tbh

https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/urK9rgtJnaBOYstGc185lA--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTY0MDtoPTM2MA--/https://s.yimg.com/uu/api/res/1.2/4NsA_yI.Z15VJJAR3BznlQ--~B/aD0zNDI7dz02MDg7c209MTthcHBpZD15dGFjaHlvbg--/https://s.abcnews.com/images/US/gordon-5-ap-er-180904_hpMain_16x9_608.jpg

https://www.yahoo.com/gma/tropical-storm-gordon-takes-aim-gulf-coast-mississippi-110648987--abc-news-topstories.html

[DJR210]

Good time to take kids to beach tbh

https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/urK9rgtJnaBOYstGc185lA--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTY0MDtoPTM2MA--/https://s.yimg.com/uu/api/res/1.2/4NsA_yI.Z15VJJAR3BznlQ--~B/aD0zNDI7dz02MDg7c209MTthcHBpZD15dGFjaHlvbg--/https://s.abcnews.com/images/US/gordon-5-ap-er-180904_hpMain_16x9_608.jpg

https://www.yahoo.com/gma/tropical-storm-gordon-takes-aim-gulf-coast-mississippi-110648987--abc-news-topstories.html

Poor kids at the mercy of idiot rednecks smh

[Blake]

Poor kids at the mercy of idiot rednecks smh

I'd say there's no way they didn't vote for Trump.

[140]

Going to Miami next week, hopefully dont get none of this shit tbh :lol

[Millennial_Messiah]

Biloxi about to get hit with a cat 1

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT07/refresh/AL072018_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/0_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
Not a hurricane. Made landfall as a tropical storm, never became a hurricane. Nothing burger. Won't even raise gas prices.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Going to Miami next week, hopefully dont get none of this shit tbh :lol

It's 2018, not 2017. This year is an El Nino trending season, so it's a weak/below average season. I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up a lot like 2013 where we ended up with zero major hurricanes and zero US hurricane landfalls.

[SpursforSix]

It's 2018, not 2017. This year is an El Nino trending season, so it's a weak/below average season. I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up a lot like 2013 where we ended up with zero major hurricanes and zero US hurricane landfalls.

not according to my model

[140]

not according to my model
Fuck

[Darth_Pelican]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT06/refresh/AL062018_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/085212_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_06.gif

[Millennial_Messiah]

Florence is going to be bad. NHC should start googling female "F" names, because they'll need a replacement one soon.


Based on Hurricane Isaac's track, he's going to be a monster problem too... potential big time major hurricane threat for the Gulf in a week and a half or so. I don't buy the NHC forecast that shear will weaken him in the middle of the open Caribbean during the peak of the season, that just doesn't happen.

[Millennial_Messiah]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT06/refresh/AL062018_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/085212_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_06.gif

If you're not a weather junkie... please note that

XTRP model = straight line and forward speed extrapolation with no environmental factors considered
CLP5 model = climatological average. In this case, almost every storm in Florence's current position recurve harmlessly out to sea, becoming fish storms, but the ridge is just too strong in this case.

[benefactor]

Florence is rapidly intensifying. Now a Cat 4.

[Robz4000]

RIP East Coast

[djohn2oo8]

1039220842171969537

[Darth_Pelican]

https://scontent-dfw5-2.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/41429333_2118218678430417_5290370385399775232_n.jp g?_nc_cat=1&oh=3a921e71adf0f9c5d35a81dec61ffa4d&oe=5C1BD059

[benefactor]

:lol

[Millennial_Messiah]

1039220842171969537

aw sweet, we get a cute little rainmaker weak TS while Wilmington and Charleston to Nags Head get turned to post Hiroshima mush

[djohn2oo8]

aw sweet, we get a cute little rainmaker weak TS while Wilmington and Charleston to Nags Head get turned to post Hiroshima mush
You want a cat 4 heading this way? Got it.

[benefactor]

Forecasts are getting more and more grim. Talking like it could stall out like Harvey and drop 30 plus inches of rain.

[Darth_Pelican]

Who's that guy that goes into these storms and films them? I need his Livestream info. He might die in this one. Cat 5 expected, damn.

[ColinB]

Jeff Piotrowski.

[Darth_Pelican]

:tu Thanks. Looking at his twitter now. He's getting ready.

[NASpurs]

The ground is already saturated enough with the 11 inches it rained so far in September in San Antonio. What's another foot.

[SpursforSix]

The ground is already saturated enough with the 11 inches it rained so far in September in San Antonio.
What's another foot.

Bend over, I'll fucking show you.

[Darth_Pelican]

RIP East Coast

[SpursforSix]

It's 2018, not 2017. This year is an El Nino trending season, so it's a weak/below average season. I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up a lot like 2013 where we ended up with zero major hurricanes and zero US hurricane landfalls.



not according to my model

not that I'm celebrating being right on this. but you have to...yep...pay attention

Had the SE United States paid attention to my model, they would have had time to build better hurricane defenses

[Darth_Pelican]

not that I'm celebrating being right on this. but you have to...yep...pay attention

Had the SE United States paid attention to my model, they would have had time to build better hurricane defenses

There's a reason that your name is in the title of this thread :tu

[SpursforSix]

There's a reason that your name is in the title of this thread :tu


:bobo

[benefactor]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/images/goes16_vis_06L_201809121648.jpg?29.4289.3

[SpursforSix]

Look for parts of the eastern U.S. to get hit with some heavy rainfall.

[InRareForm]

40 inches of rain in some areas? Los Angeles gets 15 per year

[phxspurfan]

Some of those random southern towns going to suffer (Fayetteville I'm looking at you)

[Millennial_Messiah]

You want a cat 4 heading this way? Got it.

Nah, that was last year. My gas prices rose 40 cents for a couple months after that, plus the food pantry became the food paltry when I needed the pantry most last year because of all the donations being driven south and east.

Don't want any part of that shit again.

[Millennial_Messiah]

not that I'm celebrating being right on this. but you have to...yep...pay attention

Had the SE United States paid attention to my model, they would have had time to build better hurricane defenses

Still likely to be no major hits as Florence is only forecast to be a weak end cat 1 (80 MPH) at landfall.


And not to brag myself, but it is the "F" storm and we're already in mid September. Last year we were already on Lee and Maria... 2005, we were already on Ophelia.

[Millennial_Messiah]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/images/goes16_vis_06L_201809121648.jpg?29.4289.3

Looks to be getting sheared pretty badly on the south side of the storm.

I'm rooting for the storm to dissipate before landfall, in part just so Fox news can go on and on about how God saved the Carolinas from a major disaster.

[SpursforSix]

Still likely to be no major hits as Florence is only forecast to be a weak end cat 1 (80 MPH) at landfall.


And not to brag myself, but it is the "F" storm and we're already in mid September. Last year we were already on Lee and Maria... 2005, we were already on Ophelia.


Look...you’re welcome to post in here but leave the experting to me.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Look...you’re welcome to post in here but leave the experting to me.

I was a meteorologist at the age of 11, declaring myself so on 08.28.2005.

You?

[phxspurfan]

the most overhyped fish storm in history

[SpursforSix]

I was a meteorologist at the age of 11, declaring myself so on 08.28.2005.

You?

I'm a Certified Super Weather Expert.

[phxspurfan]

Jeff over there at the rich guys' abandoned vacation houses, living his best life

https://twitter.com/Jeff_Piotrowski/status/1040269367160782849

[benefactor]

I still can't believe Jeff survived the car wash. That was easily the wildest storm footage I've ever seen.

[Trainwreck2100]

I still can't believe Jeff survived the car wash. That was easily the wildest storm footage I've ever seen.

dat GOAT shed captured my heart

[SpursforSix]

dat GOAT shed captured my heart

bend over, I'll fucking capture your heart

[Trainwreck2100]

bend over, I'll fucking capture your heart

you're not a GOAT shed, so outlook not so good

[Fabbs]

So accurate is the Waffle House chains prediction of hurricanes, FEMA actually has an informal relationship with them.
It's called the Waffle House index.
https://www.npr.org/2018/09/13/64748...-surges-ashore

[Darth_Pelican]

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018-09-14-new-bern-north-carolina-rescues-neuse-river

[Darth_Pelican]

:lol I can’t get this video to embed on my phone right now, but check out the horrible acting job by this guy as 2 teens just nonchalantly walk by with no effect from the wind

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MD2hjVv96_U&feature=share

[baseline bum]

:lol I can’t get this video to embed on my phone right now, but check out the horrible acting job by this guy as 2 teens just nonchalantly walk by with no effect from the wind

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MD2hjVv96_U&feature=share

:rollin


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MD2hjVv96_U

[phxspurfan]

:lol I can’t get this video to embed on my phone right now, but check out the horrible acting job by this guy as 2 teens just nonchalantly walk by with no effect from the wind

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MD2hjVv96_U&feature=share

The Weather Channel wins again

[SpursforSix]

Look for parts of the eastern U.S. to get hit with some heavy rainfall.

Someone was right again.

[Robz4000]

Someone was right again.

The Expert

[phxspurfan]

Some of those random southern towns going to suffer (Fayetteville I'm looking at you)

Fayetteville Mayor: Notify next of kin if you ignore mandatory evacuation order
https://www.citizen-times.com/story/news/nation/2018/09/15/tropical-storm-florence-50-feet-water-approaches-fayetteville-weighs-evacuations/1316838002/

:wakeup

[Trainwreck2100]

florence, more like Boreance amirite?

[Millennial_Messiah]

Typical result from el nino hurricane season, even the big one is weaker than usual tbh.

[Blake]

1041716673500389376

[Darth_Pelican]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT14/refresh/AL142018_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/205519_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
https://dsx.weather.com/util/image/map/MAX_WEB_TROP_ATL14_storm_info_1280x720.jpg

[phxspurfan]

More "this storm can kill u" bs. Just go to the roof with some doritos and ride it out

[phxspurfan]

1049317256449216514 JK RIP Redneck area of Flo-Rida

[baseline bum]

1049317256449216514 JK RIP Redneck area of Flo-Rida

I hope he's bringing that blue shed with him.

[spurraider21]

I hope he's bringing that blue shed with him.
:lol

https://www.reddit.com/r/blueshed/

[spurraider21]

https://i.redd.it/i5td3jvqf0iz.png

[benefactor]

:lol

[Darth_Pelican]

It's 2018, not 2017. This year is an El Nino trending season, so it's a weak/below average season. I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up a lot like 2013 where we ended up with zero major hurricanes and zero US hurricane landfalls.


not according to my model

SFS expert knowledge shining through once again.

[InRareForm]

Why they always show bread aisles in the news ? There are other better food sources In a grocery store tbh

[pgardn]

Why they always show bread aisles in the news ? There are other better food sources In a grocery store tbh

I know.

Im buying slabs of raw meat for that extended stay on my roof.
Then drinking melted ice cream.

Actually the Little Debbie’s and sugar shit never rot.
Candy dipped in pure lard.
Shredded chicken dumped in honey.
For Fabbs, honey ham sprinkled with cat litter.

[Robz4000]

This thing is gonna be a Cat 5 at landfall, isn't it?

[benefactor]

This thing is gonna be a Cat 5 at landfall, isn't it?
There's a chance, but I don't think it has enough time to get there. Pretty impressive pressure drop...943 to 933 over a 4 hour period.

Regardless, the panhandle is fucked.

[benefactor]

Jeff is live from Panama City

https://www.pscp.tv/Jeff_Piotrowski/1DXxyYjlEALxM

[baseline bum]

Jeff is live from Panama City

https://www.pscp.tv/Jeff_Piotrowski/1DXxyYjlEALxM

Not really feeling his solo act after leaving the blue shed.

[benefactor]

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/619372df89f0449881e1ebf8f3519f0b529719e07a590d235a 6b56df2020b92b.gif

RIP

[benefactor]

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4b489da376fe36133d40b6b44261f8b4bcc81d4b4397ec61b6 7b0f87e667f1da.jpg?w=800&h=528
:wow

[Fabbs]

nice photos beanerfactor.
You could be an informative weather person.

[benefactor]

Some chasers in the area:

https://livestormchasing.com/map

[SpursforSix]

Typical result from el nino hurricane season, even the big one is weaker than usual tbh.

Told you so

[phxspurfan]

Fucking beautiful buzzsaw. :cry Today’s Hurricanes :cry

[benefactor]

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0e1e3a29addc5c142b936a025f551c448d50bef03823d3d46a 74fdc6cddf111a.gif

[benefactor]

These guys probably died.

https://www.pscp.tv/w/1kvKpavqBYoGE

[Trainwreck2100]

These guys probably died.

https://www.pscp.tv/w/1kvKpavqBYoGE

they're idiots for being where they were.

[baseline bum]

These guys probably died.

https://www.pscp.tv/w/1kvKpavqBYoGE

They're alive. They just retweeted some shit on their twitter a minute ago.

[SpursforSix]

Look for high winds and heavy rain with this one guys.

[benefactor]

It has made landfall and the eye is still very much intact. Unreal

[benefactor]

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/98de340350c52382c0f5f772456904876b2666d8314cf4efee 99185d0483dd16.gif

Just buzz sawing undeterred. Wild shit.

[Robz4000]

One of the most don't-give-a-fuck storms I can remember. It's gonna be a Cat 4/5 all the way into Georgia.

[SpursforSix]

Look for this to have widespread impact on the area it encounters.

[SpursforSix]

https://twitter.com/i/status/1050096909757628427


https://twitter.com/i/status/1050069656650833921

[phxspurfan]

https://twitter.com/i/status/1050096909757628427


https://twitter.com/i/status/1050069656650833921

whoa, those trees are horizontal

[spurraider21]

https://twitter.com/i/status/1050096909757628427


https://twitter.com/i/status/1050069656650833921
holy shit that first one

[Mark Celibate]

holy shit that first one

how the fuck did that happen? wind was barely blowing in that video

[Kip Dynamite]

how the fuck did that happen? wind was barely blowing in that video

Your mom was barely blowing!

[StormLuva]

Absolutely amazing destruction!!!!! WOOOOOO!!!! I would be curious to see multiple F5 tornadoes hit the same area soon, to finish those fuckers off....err, I mean for research purposes!

:madrunFucking bullshit that the death count is only 17! wtf? :madrun

No wonder my BFF Manny is nowhere to be seen in this thread....tbh hopefully when the death count goes over 100 he'll make an appearance

[Millennial_Messiah]

Never Die Nadine finally died. Leslie died over Portugal. Hurricane season is over.


Now let's talk about snow. Snow forecast for Texas in 2018??

[BD24]

STFU Andrew. This thread is for expert SFS. No one cares about your opinion. You were wrong time after time. SFS running circles around u

[benefactor]

Man...some of the post Hurricane Michael interviews are cringy. Listening to these people makes me wish they hadn't made it out...bunch of fucking ducks clones tbh

[benefactor]

Found Jeff's footage. He lost service so he couldn't live stream. He was in Callaway just east of Panama City.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nAXrTEGKtlo

[phxspurfan]

Man...some of the post Hurricane Michael interviews are cringy. Listening to these people makes me wish they hadn't made it out...bunch of fucking ducks clones tbh

what do you expect out of somebody who lives in a place called "Mexico Beach, Florida" lol

[phxspurfan]

Found Jeff's footage. He lost service so he couldn't live stream. He was in Callaway just east of Panama City.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nAXrTEGKtlo

5:55 seeing the whole eye...completely quiet. so cool

[baseline bum]

Found Jeff's footage. He lost service so he couldn't live stream. He was in Callaway just east of Panama City.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nAXrTEGKtlo

No blue shed? Then I ain't watching.