DEM DISASTER: Democrat Turnout in Texas Lowest in 100 YEARS

[Chris]

Voter turnout in a Texas Democratic gubernatorial runoff hasn’t been this low in nearly 100 years


Democrat Lupe Valdez will face off against Republican Gov. Greg Abbott in the fall. Two incumbents in the Texas House lost their runoffs. And Democrats had their worst runoff turnout in almost a century.


https://1zwchz1jbsr61f1c4mgf0abl-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/texasdemocrats.jpg



A tiny fraction of Texas registered voters had an outsized impact on the May 22 runoffs. Here’s a look at what you need to know about Tuesday night’s election returns — and what they mean for the November general election:

Democrat Lupe Valdez will take on Republican Gov. Greg Abbott in November.
Lupe Valdez has made history. Some 14 years ago, the liberal, gay Latina set her sights on an unlikely goal: Dallas County sheriff. Now, she’ll take on an even bigger challenge — running against the popular incumbent Republican governor.

Valdez officially accepted her party’s nomination Tuesday night, narrowly defeating Andrew White with around 52 percent of the vote. But she faces an uphill battle against Abbott, who touts a high approval rating and a $41 million war chest in an ultraconservative state.

Democratic voters made some history of their own. And it wasn't pretty.
As of 11 p.m. Tuesday, just 415,000 Democrats had cast ballots in the gubernatorial runoff. For reference, that's a decline of almost 60 percent from the 1 million Texans who cast ballots in the March Democratic primary.

That's the largest primary-to-runoff decline — and the smallest number of ballots cast — in the 14 Democratic gubernatorial primary runoffs held since 1920. That year, 449,000 Democrats voted, according to Texas Election Source's analysis of Texas State Historical Association data.

Some high profile congressional candidates won big.
Most GOP runoffs for congressional seats were held in Republican strongholds — meaning whoever came out on top became the favorite to win in November. Most Democratic congressional runoffs, meanwhile, were in districts the party has designs on in the fall.

CD-7: Democrat Lizzie Pannill Fletcher will challenge U.S. Rep. John Culberson, R-Houston, in November. The runoff battle between Fletcher, an attorney, and Laura Moser, an activist and writer, made big headlines just before the March 6 primary when national Democrats backed Fletcher, but the noise quieted in the runoff stretch. Fletcher easily won the party’s nomination Tuesday night with almost 70 percent of the vote.
CD-21: Republican Chip Roy will face Democrat Joseph Kopser in the race to replace retiring U.S. Rep. Lamar Smith, R-San Antonio. Roy, former chief of staff to U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, bested Matt McCall, a business owner; Kopser, a tech entrepreneur, defeated Mary Wilson, a minister and mathematician.
CD-23: Gina Ortiz Jones will take on U.S. Rep. Will Hurd, R-Helotes, for what’s considered one of the most competitive congressional seats in the country. Jones, a former Air Force intelligence officer, defeated Rick Treviño, a former high school teacher.
Incumbents in the Texas House didn't survive their runoffs.
State Rep. René Oliveira, a Brownsville Democrat, fell to a challenge from Cameron County Commissioner Alex Dominguez. The race for Democratic-leaning House District 37 garnered statewide attention last month with Oliveria’s DWI arrest. Dominguez won with roughly 57 percent of the vote Tuesday, ousting an incumbent who represented the district from 1981 to 1987 and again beginning in 1991.

Meanwhile, Republican state Rep. Scott Cosper of Killeen lost to veterinarian Brad Buckley. The runoff for House District 54 didn’t fit traditional Republican battle lines: Cosper had support from establishment groups, but Buckley didn’t visibly campaign to the right of him.

Moderate candidates running for Texas House seats largely kept hard-line conservatives at bay.
Steve Allison will likely fill the San Antonio House seat Speaker Joe Straus is vacating; he coasted by Matt Beebe by about 15 percentage points. Beebe, a small-business owner, had unsuccessfully challenged Straus twice before and had support from Empower Texans and Texas Right to Life, two far-right conservative groups. Allison, an attorney, was endorsed by Straus. A handful of other House races played out just like that Tuesday night, following a trend seen in the March 6 primaries.

Cody Harris is likely to take over the seat that state Rep. Byron Cook, a Corsicana Republican and longtime Straus lieutenant, is vacating. Harris, a local real estate broker backed by Cook and other moderate Republicans, handily defeated Thomas McNutt for the Republican-leaning seat in House District 8. McNutt narrowly lost to Cook in the 2016 primary.
Ben Leman is poised to replace former state Rep. Leighton Schubert, a Caldwell Republican, in the mostly rural House District 13. Leman, the former Grimes County judge, beat Bellville businesswoman Jill Wolfskill, a staunch conservative who said she’d join the ranks of the Texas House Freedom Caucus if elected.
Keith Bell is set to represent House District 4 in East Texas. Bell, a more moderate candidate, defeated former state Rep. Stuart Spitzer, a Tea Party-aligned former surgeon.
Reggie Smith is on track to succeed former state Rep. Larry Phillips, a Sherman Republican who vacated the seat in House District 62 earlier this year. Smith, former chairman of the Grayson County Republican Party, had support from Phillips and got 71 percent of the vote to Brent Lawson’s 28 percent.
One exception to this rule was Deanna Maria Metzger, who beat Joe Ruzicka for the Republican nomination to take on state Rep. Victoria Neave, D-Dallas, in November. Metzger had support from those same hard-line conservative groups, while Ruzicka was backed by more centrist ones.

Sheryl Cole came out on top in a hotly contested race to replace Dawnna Dukes.
Democrat Sheryl Cole will likely replace outgoing state Rep. Dawnna Dukes, the Austin Democrat who lost her bid for re-election in March. Cole, the former Austin mayor pro tem, edged out Chito Vela, an attorney, by about 3 percentage points in the Democratic-leaning House District 46.

Darla Cameron contributed to this report.

Disclosure: Joseph Kopser has been a financial supporter of The Texas Tribune, a nonprofit, nonpartisan news organization that is funded in part by donations from members, foundations and corporate sponsors. Financial supporters play no role in the Tribune's journalism.

https://www.texastribune.org/2018/05/22/texas-primary-runoffs-results-who-won/

[Winehole23]

who can blame them? Dems aren't very excited about their own party in the primaries.

best the Dems can hope for it hatred of the other side and DJT will sweep them out of office when the election offers someone to hate.

[Winehole23]

it's a close bet. Dems are short of good ideas beyond hating the GOP and DJT.

[Winehole23]

In PA some DSA figures won primaries. Fringy freaks be poppin up on the left too.

[Reck]

Winehole seems shook.

[Winehole23]

not at all. I'm not doctrinaire, and the political realignment is dynamic.

emergent phenomena starting to overtake established parties.

[Winehole23]

GOP can't get shit done without Dems; their own caucus is too unruly.

Similar with the Dems: can't hold the line.

[Winehole23]

The GOP is the radical party: quickest to assimilate the fringe.

The Dems are a little behind. They hope to be the party of the establishment.

[ElNono]

Not even sure was a Texas Democrat looks like, tbh...

[LkrFan]

Voter turnout in a Texas Democratic gubernatorial runoff hasn’t been this low in nearly 100 years


Democrat Lupe Valdez will face off against Republican Gov. Greg Abbott in the fall. Two incumbents in the Texas House lost their runoffs. And Democrats had their worst runoff turnout in almost a century.


https://1zwchz1jbsr61f1c4mgf0abl-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/texasdemocrats.jpg

Texas is a red state. WGAF? Anywho:

999829719729270784

:)

[Winehole23]

Much to their detriment I would say, but who knows who wins this standoff between technocratic and populist authoritarianism?

I certainly don't.

[Winehole23]

Not even sure was a Texas Democrat looks like, tbh...Hard to say. No statewide officers since the mid 90s. 1994, I think.

[Winehole23]

hilarious fact: Rick Perry was Al Gore's state campaign chair in 1988.

[ElNono]

Hard to say. No statewide officers since the mid 90s. 1994, I think.

I only visit there like 15 days a year, tbh, definitely curious. I suspect they would look like Ted Cruz in blue states like NY...

[Winehole23]

Texas Dems are more conservative than Dems elsewhere no fuckin doubt. always been that way.

Have you ever read "The Gay Place" by Billy Lee Brammer?

It's sort of a political romance, Brammer was an LBJ staffer, until he wrote the politcal romance. It imagines LBJ as Texas governor, which he never was.

[Winehole23]

Anyway, LBJ didn't like the book and fired him.

In 1960 Brammer said all these Texas Democrats are Republicans and they don't know it yet.

It took them til the mid 1980s, roughly, to figure it out.

[Winehole23]

Memories of activist Republican government in Texas during the Reconstruction cast a long shadow.

I believe some people are still sore about it.

[Chris]

it's a close bet. Dems are short of good ideas beyond hating the GOP and DJT.

I wholeheartedly agree. Don't forget open borders and putting illegal aliens in office as well.

[Winehole23]

illegal aliens in office? who do you mean?

[Chris]

not at all. I'm not doctrinaire, and the political realignment is dynamic.

emergent phenomena starting to overtake established parties.

Sounds deep. Trump is the catalyst anyway you look at it.

[Chris]

illegal aliens in office? who do you mean?

California

[Winehole23]

As for open borders, Trump will be challenged to exceed Obama's deportation totals. That's the previous high water mark.

Obama was far from supine compared to the likes of Reagan and the Bushes.

[Winehole23]

Californiao rly who?

[Winehole23]

Sounds deep. Trump is the catalyst anyway you look at it.The catalyst for what? The quickening?

[Chris]

GOP can't get shit done without Dems; their own caucus is too unruly.

Similar with the Dems: can't hold the line.

I disagree. The GOP is going to get a lot done with or without the Dems.

[Chris]

o rly who?

Some yahoo. Look it up.

[Chris]

The catalyst for what? The quickening?

You really need that explained to you? Maybe not so deep as I thought.

[Chris]

As for open borders, Trump will be challenged to exceed Obama's deportation totals. That's the previous high water mark.

Obama was far from supine compared to the likes of Reagan and the Bushes.

Doesn't mean shit if they come right back in. Trump is looking to remedy that and I'm sure the numbers will be exorbitantly higher now that ICE has been enabled without restraint.

[Chris]

Texas is a red state. WGAF? Anywho:

999829719729270784

:)

San Antonio, Austin, Houston, Dallas and most of the coastline and Mexican border is BLUE. Texas is not as red as you think.

[Winehole23]

I disagree. The GOP is going to get a lot done with or without the Dems.Well, they better get crackin. Majorities don't last forever.

[Winehole23]

Doesn't mean shit if they come right back in. Trump is looking to remedy that and I'm sure the numbers will be exorbitantly higher now that ICE has been enabled without restraint.Yeah, well a few Americans have been detained and deported on that count. That ain't right.

Without restraint means US citizens get fucked: fuck that.

[Winehole23]

You really need that explained to you? Maybe not so deep as I thought.I'm not a mind reader. Say what you mean.

[Winehole23]

Some yahoo. Look it up.Yeah, why does everybody else have to back up your bs?

Can't back it up?

[Winehole23]

maybe you have another irrelevant tweet, please share it

[ElNono]

Anyway, LBJ didn't like the book and fired him.

In 1960 Brammer said all these Texas Democrats are Republicans and they don't know it yet.

It took them til the mid 1980s, roughly, to figure it out.

LBJ sounds like a snowflake, tbh, thanks for the story...

[clambake]

I'm not a mind reader. Say what you mean.
he will steer all americans, including you, to the koolaid. dale suggests that you join him in obedience.

[Winehole23]

LBJ sounds like a snowflake, tbh, thanks for the story...The Robert Caro books are where you really want to go for that...

[ElNono]

The Robert Caro trilogy is where you really want to go for that...

There's apparently 4 books, and a 5th coming out... I don't know I care about LBJ that much... :lol

[Winehole23]

he will steer all americans, including you, to the koolaid. dale suggests that you join him in obedience.with that suggestion, $1.59 USD and 25 cents for the cup I can get a Big Gulp.

[Winehole23]

There's apparently 4 books, and a 5th coming out... I don't know I care about LBJ that much... :loledited to reflect,

you're a harsh master, El Nono!

[Winehole23]

there's funny stories in there. like about the 1948 Texas Senate race where LBJ and an aide are taking down names in a graveyard for voter registration.

[Winehole23]

it's a warts and all. maybe one you leave in the shitter. LBJ would like that.

[Winehole23]

there's funny stories in there. like about the 1948 Texas Senate race where LBJ and an aide are taking down names in a graveyard for voter registration.Aide says: I can't read this one.

LBJ says: you wait one goddam minute! this dead man has as much right to vote...









...as anybody else in this fuckin' graveyard!

[ElNono]

there's funny stories in there. like about the 1948 Texas Senate race where LBJ and an aide are taking down names in a graveyard for voter registration.

Now I'm intrigued... so little time lately (and unfortunately).

I guess the lesson is the more things change, the more they stay the same.

[benefactor]

illegal aliens in office? who do you mean?

Some yahoo. Look it up.
:lol

[Spurminator]

Not even sure was a Texas Democrat looks like, tbh...

Come to my neighborhood in Dallas sometime. Probably about 80% Democrat, mostly young families.

Of course, we've been gerrymandered in with enough of Sachse, Wylie and Rowlett (while cutting around South Garland) so we're likely going to be represented by Republicans for the foreseeable future. https://sessions.house.gov/about/our-district

[RandomGuy]

it's a close bet. Dems are short of good ideas beyond hating the GOP and DJT.

Sounds about how I would describe the GOP. Two years after the election and they are still beating the dead Hillary horse.

[RandomGuy]

I wholeheartedly agree. Don't forget open borders and putting illegal aliens in office as well.

:rollin

What flavor is that koolaid? Just curious

[Winehole23]

Sounds about how I would describe the GOP. Two years after the election and they are still beating the dead Hillary horse.smart move. hatred is a strong emotion.

no shortage of negative partisans (https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/pops.12479) on both sides, tbh

[RandomGuy]

Come to my neighborhood in Dallas sometime. Probably about 80% Democrat, mostly young families.

Of course, we've been gerrymandered in with enough of Sachse, Wylie and Rowlett (while cutting around South Garland) so we're likely going to be represented by Republicans for the foreseeable future. https://sessions.house.gov/about/our-district

Sprawl development means that any new residents will be in areas previously Republican leaning. If most of them are Democrats that means that the "stacking" aspect fades over time.

Republican politicians stealing votes from Democrats has not engendered a lot of fondness nor willingness to be fair if Democrats ever get the chance to redraw the maps. The GOP will get to cook in a stew of their own making.
.

[RandomGuy]

smart move. hatred is a strong emotion.

[/FONT][/COLOR]no shortage of negative partisans (https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/pops.12479) on both sides, tbh

This years events outline the failures of a two party system pretty clearly, IMO. When you have a Congress controlled by the same party as the President, the checks and balances built into the system break down.

One party governments, no matter which party that is, are corrosive to the public good.
.

[spurraider21]

Some yahoo. Look it up.
“Do my homework for me”

[RandomGuy]

smart move. hatred is a strong emotion.

[/FONT][/COLOR]no shortage of negative partisans (https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/pops.12479) on both sides, tbh

Be careful though, in drawing equivalences. Are both sides equal in this regard? By what metric does one judge this?

[RandomGuy]

GOP can't get shit done without Dems; their own caucus is too unruly.

Similar with the Dems: can't hold the line.

Not what I have seen from the trenches. Tension between establishment/progressives, but it definitely doesn't have the same level acrimony as the Tea Party fanatics do with their more moderate elements.

Huge pressure to put aside any differences to work together. Again, this is local to me, but from what I see bouncing around the liberal echo chamber, I would disagree with that assessment.

[RandomGuy]

it's a close bet. Dems are short of good ideas beyond hating the GOP and DJT.

https://www.txdemocrats.org/our-party/texas-democratic-party-platform/

Not really. I think they are short of a coherent messaging strategy that cuts through the noise. Simplistic populist bullshit does that well, which is why the GOP wins that.

Any reasonable reading and comparison of the party platforms and proposals I think pretty clearly shows a disparity in policy solutions with the Democrats very clearly having more, and better ideas.

Conservatives and the GOP suffer from the "magical" thinking of religiosity in that their idea toolbox is hamstrung by their delusional belief that "free markets" are the only solution.

When you paint yourself into a corner and exclude a set of potential ideas because of concerns about ideological purity, you limit yourself.

Not that Democrats don't suffer from this to some degree, but again, be very wary of false equivalences. Both sides are NOT equal.

[RandomGuy]

As for the OP:

Runoff elections are always limited. We will see what happens in the fall.

I think it is closer than many think.

[Winehole23]

Be careful though, in drawing equivalences. Are both sides equal in this regard? By what metric does one judge this?I'd say there are striking similarities.

The GOP spent eight years stoking paranoia and fear, throwing shit on the wall and screaming about the illegitimacy of Obama.

If Dems to do the same, they're likely to be just as unready to rule whenever their turn comes.

[Chris]

As for the OP:

Runoff elections are always limited. We will see what happens in the fall.

I think it is closer than many think.

Nah, huge red El Nino wave incoming. Easy money.

[RandomGuy]

I'd say there are striking similarities.

The GOP spent eight years stoking paranoia and fear, throwing shit on the wall and screaming about the illegitimacy of Obama.

If Dems to do the same, they're likely to be just as unready to rule whenever their turn comes.

I think any incoming administration at the Federal level would be pretty ready from day one, just like every previous administration before Trumps outlier.

We won't have 8 years to do the same anyway. Oddsmakers keep handicapping Trump's ability to finish even one term at less than 50%.

[Chris]

I think any incoming administration at the Federal level would be pretty ready from day one, just like every previous administration before Trumps outlier.

We won't have 8 years to do the same anyway. Oddsmakers keep handicapping Trump's ability to finish even one term at less than 50%.

Fantasy world :lol

[Reck]

Fantasy world :lol

Giuliani: It's not about collusion, it's all about getting impeached.

Not a direct quote..but close enough. :lol

[CosmicCowboy]

I think any incoming administration at the Federal level would be pretty ready from day one, just like every previous administration before Trumps outlier.

We won't have 8 years to do the same anyway. Oddsmakers keep handicapping Trump's ability to finish even one term at less than 50%.
I dont see the <50%. Guys a tool and will probably be impeached if blue team gets the house but there is no way they get 2/3 of the senate for a conviction. Trump could give a shit about party so he wont resign and will go all the way to "vindicate" himself.

[Winehole23]

I think any incoming administration at the Federal level would be pretty ready from day one, just like every previous administration before Trumps outlier.

We won't have 8 years to do the same anyway. Oddsmakers keep handicapping Trump's ability to finish even one term at less than 50%.November 2016 took the prognosticators by surprise; it could happen again in 2020. Two years is a political eternity.

[ElNono]

Meanwhile, in the polar opposite:

California Republicans hit rock bottom
New figures show the once-proud state GOP has been relegated to third-party status.

SAN FRANCISCO — The state that spawned the "Reagan Revolution’’ and Richard M. Nixon just experienced a watershed moment — the California Republican Party was officially relegated to third-party status.

In the culmination of the withered state GOP’s long slide toward near-political irrelevance here, new voter registration data released this week show the once-robust party trails behind both Democrats and “no party preference” in the nation's most populous state. The California Republican Party is now outnumbered by independent voters by 73,000, according to Political Data Inc., which tabulates voter file data from county registrars.

The new figures come as the state looms large in the national battle for the House, with a handful of Republican-held seats poised to play a pivotal role in November.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/30/california-republicans-third-party-status-613568

[Chucho]

Not even sure was a Texas Democrat looks like, tbh...

You've never seen a gay man in Texas in a cowboy hat?

[ElNono]

You've never seen a gay man in Texas in a cowboy hat?

not yet

[RandomGuy]

I dont see the <50%. Guys a tool and will probably be impeached if blue team gets the house but there is no way they get 2/3 of the senate for a conviction. Trump could give a shit about party so he wont resign and will go all the way to "vindicate" himself.

Selling Republicans in the Senate short. Inherent in your statement here is that no Republican might cross party lines.

But hey, the Magic "R" means that you won't hold him to account either, hypocrite, so it shouldn't surprise me that is your underlying ASSumption. FWIW: Your giving Trump a total pass for all the stupid shit he does, and failure to hold him accountable for his corruption bewilders me.

[RandomGuy]

You've never seen a gay man in Texas in a cowboy hat?

Yes, I have. easy.

[RandomGuy]

November 2016 took the prognosticators by surprise; it could happen again in 2020. Two years is a political eternity.

Every potential administration has teams ready to take things over. Every one.

Except for incompetent team Trump, who runs things like he runs his business: ineptly and thinly staffed, with loyalty being the only attribute considered for most things.

The Vanity Fair did a really good article on it, with direct reporting on the transition at the DOE, whose most important function escapes Trump sip-otters.

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/07/department-of-energy-risks-michael-lewis


“The election happened,” remembers Elizabeth Sherwood-Randall, then deputy secretary of the D.O.E. “And he won. And then there was radio silence. We were prepared for the next day. And nothing happened.” Across the federal government the Trump people weren’t anywhere to be found. Allegedly, between the election and the inauguration not a single Trump representative set foot inside the Department of Agriculture, for example. The Department of Agriculture has employees or contractors in every county in the United States, and the Trump people seemed simply to be ignoring the place. Where they did turn up inside the federal government, they appeared confused and unprepared. A small group attended a briefing at the State Department, for instance, only to learn that the briefings they needed to hear were classified. None of the Trump people had security clearance—or, for that matter, any experience in foreign policy—and so they weren’t allowed to receive an education. On his visits to the White House soon after the election, Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, expressed surprise that so much of its staff seemed to be leaving. “It was like he thought it was a corporate acquisition or something,” says an Obama White House staffer. “He thought everyone just stayed.”

[Chris]

The Vanity Fair did a really good article on it

:lmao

[RandomGuy]

:lmao

Good journalism is good journalism. Dismissing information sight unseen is not an effective way to accurately determine truth.

[RandomGuy]

So what, exactly, are these ideas coming from the right? Do tell

"it is a great and moral idea to rip blind 6 year olds from their mother at the border because we hate brown people"

Seems to be the popular idea they are putting out there for the rest of us to accept.

I'll take a pass on that. :ihit

[Winehole23]

not sure what you're asking