If Kiwi were to stay where would the Spurs rank in the West and the League?

[$pursDynasty]

Not saying he is staying but if he were to play for the Spurs this year where would you seed them? For me I would think #2 in the West and probably the third best team in the league behind the Dubs and the Celtics. I highly doubt he will stay with us even at the max BUT if all we get are crap offers no Kuz from the Fakers, no Fultz from the Sixers, no Brown or Kyrie from the Celtics, I wouldn't be opposed to just playing it out, if we are as I suspect the 2nd best team in the West who knows how it plays out. Yes that means we get nothing for him but it would demonstrate in a way just how close the Spurs are with the addition of a max like player that might be enough to lure the likes of a Butler/Kyrie or even a Durant come 2019. I wouldn't be mad if all we did was unload one of those albatross contracts this year if we can't get better offers than the ones that are being floated out there right now. I know that would be dependent on him playing and not sulking but two years off in a row would seriously hurt his stock.

[slick'81]

Top 5 in the west and 10 in the L

[DAF86]

3rd or even 2nd in both.

[HarlemHeat37]

The West sucks now and Houston should be worse, so probably 2nd, but it's a pipe dream..Kawhi would probably rather kill himself than play for the Spurs again:lol

[BillMc]

The West sucks now and Houston should be worse, so probably 2nd, but it's a pipe dream..Kawhi would probably rather kill himself than play for the Spurs again:lol

Why will Houston be worse? Loss of Ariza? Did they lose Capella? (Have been avoiding Bball lately).

[Proxy]

Why will Houston be worse? Loss of Ariza? Did they lose Capella? (Have been avoiding Bball lately).

assuming they add Melo too

[HarlemHeat37]

Why will Houston be worse? Loss of Ariza? Did they lose Capella? (Have been avoiding Bball lately).

Lost 2 of their 3 best defensive players + natural regression IMO + getting Carmelo:lol

[Capt Bringdown]

Leonard is the next Derrick Rose. Any team that invests in him = palookaville.

[Chinook]

Why will Houston be worse? Loss of Ariza? Did they lose Capella? (Have been avoiding Bball lately).

They did not lose Capela, but they could if they keep messing around.

As to the topic of this thread, I think SA would be near Houston if they kept Leonard and made no further moves. If they kept Leonard and made a trade for another "All-Star" without giving up LMA, they'd be a clear second with a legit chance to win the title.

[spursreport]

They’d be the team to dethrone the Warriors. People act like Golden State is a lock to 3-peat, but 3-peating is very difficult to do. Players are due for new contracts, the team was vulnerable last year, and signing a cancer in Cousins coming off an injury that players don’t recover well from doesn’t do much for them. The Warriors were down 17/15 points to the Rockets minus CP3 last year but Harden is a choker/quitter and Pringles is a proven loser coach. Curry will also be 31. The Warriors era is ending next summer. The writing couldn’t be more on the wall for this than it already is. The Spurs keep Kawhi, and then gel as a unit...they’ll be that team to win end the Warriors era. The Spurs have been the team to end dynasties and take the championship from them. Would have done it to the Bulls in 99, did it to the Lakers in 03, did it to Miami in 14.

[mo7888]

2nd or third in the league

[Trainwreck2100]

If he ends up playing what's to stop him from pulling a VC? Not a damn thing that's what

[Mr. Body]

Spurs with a healthy and non-dumb Kawhi is second in the west behind GSW and has a chance of beating them in the playoffs. That's what should have happened last year.

[Carhanu]

High enough to not get any quality draft picks.

[Killakobe81]

Top 3 in West top 5 Overall

[eDizzle20]

2nd. The guy is a transformative player. This past season and offseason along with his unknown health status has downgraded him, but if he is healthy the only player better than him is LeBron. The Spurs will continue to try to work it out and no doubt will maintain a high asking price since he is a superstar.

[Gagnrath]

2nd. The guy is a transformative player. This past season and offseason along with his unknown health status has downgraded him, but if he is healthy the only player better than him is LeBron. The Spurs will continue to try to work it out and no doubt will maintain a high asking price since he is a superstar.

I would probably rate Durant above Kahwi simply because his defense has improved considerably since leaving OKC and I'm not sure that kahwi's offense is even in the same strata as KD.

[therealtruth]

I would probably rate Durant above Kahwi simply because his defense has improved considerably since leaving OKC and I'm not sure that kahwi's offense is even in the same strata as KD.

The last playoff game against the Warriors that Kawhi played, he was controlling the game on both offense/defense. Durant didn't get going till Kawhi got injured. I think in that game he made it pretty clear who the better player was.

[dabom]

Top 3 in West top 5 Overall

What east team could beat the Spurs? And lol at rockets. :lmao

[PennSpur]

Behind gsw and houston. Probably battling it out w Utah for 3rd in the West.

[Raven]

obv #2

[PennSpur]

Think you guys are a bit too optimistic re: the Spurs with Kawhi. Numbers only include players who have actually agreed to contracts, so Capela isn't factored into Houston's projection yet.

https://twitter.com/JacobEGoldstein/status/1013906932325896193

[dabom]

Think you guys are a bit too optimistic re: the Spurs with Kawhi. Numbers only include players who have actually agreed to contracts, so Capela isn't factored into Houston's projection yet.

https://twitter.com/JacobEGoldstein/status/1013906932325896193

Weird since Kawhi is under contract for the Spurs.

[Gagnrath]

The last playoff game against the Warriors that Kawhi played, he was controlling the game on both offense/defense. Durant didn't get going till Kawhi got injured. I think in that game he made it pretty clear who the better player was.

9 games last year of Kawhi didn't show the same player as that play-off game.... While KD stepped up last year.

[Stabula]

I would probably rate Durant above Kahwi simply because his defense has improved considerably since leaving OKC and I'm not sure that kahwi's offense is even in the same strata as KD.

:lmao

[PennSpur]

Those numbers include Kawhi as playing for the Spurs, and they basically have San Antonio in a big scrum for 4th-9th in the West. You have to remember stats models are going to discount Kawhi's playing time this year given he only played 9 games last season, they disapprove of letting Anderson go since he had a very strong plus-minus and they're going to project all of the 30+ guys to decline a bit from last year.

[dabom]

Those numbers include Kawhi as playing for the Spurs, and they basically have San Antonio in a big scrum for 4th-9th in the West. You have to remember stats models are going to discount Kawhi's playing time this year given he only played 9 games last season, they disapprove of letting Anderson go since he had a very strong plus-minus and they're going to project all of the 30+ guys to decline a bit from last year.

So the projection is flawed for the Spurs.

[PennSpur]

I wouldn't say that. Do you not think Kawhi's leg situation makes him more likely to miss time this season? If he's here, I hope he plays all 82, but models build in those type of discounts because historically missing a lot of time in one season raises the chances a player will be injured in the following year/s.

[dabom]

I wouldn't say that. Do you not think Kawhi's leg situation makes him more likely to miss time this season? If he's here, I hope he plays all 82, but models build in those type of discounts because historically missing a lot of time in one season raises the chances a player will be injured in the following year/s.

The model doesn't account for Kawhi playing. It just says impact times time played and gives a rough estimate of wins.

He is gonna play. That is a fact. Dude's been healthy for a while now. And he didn't break anything. If he played easy 60 wins. Maybe a little less for more resting.

[PennSpur]

Dude the model includes Kawhi.

https://twitter.com/JacobEGoldstein/status/1016291576753123329

[dabom]

Dude the model includes Kawhi.

https://twitter.com/JacobEGoldstein/status/1016291576753123329

Yes but only a small difference because he played like 9 fucking games on minute restrictions. :lol

It probably goes down 1 game at most. :lol

It doesn't correctly account for Kawhi playing next year.

[PennSpur]

The tweet from the guy who built the model literally says the Spurs projection will "go way down" when Kawhi is traded.

[dabom]

The tweet from the guy built the model literally says the Spurs projection will "go way down" when Kawhi is traded.

The Spurs played without Kawhi last year and hit 47 and his model now has the same number with Kawhi playing? That's fucking retarded at face value. Dont post dumb stuff no more.

[PennSpur]

Pretty clear you don't understand how projection systems work. The focus shouldn't be the exact win total--models are generally going to regress teams' wins toward the mean--but the Spurs' ranking in the West. Beyond that, who on the Spurs is going to be better than last season? 32 year old Aldridge? 38 year old Pau? 41 year old Ginobili? 31 y/o Danny? 31 y/o Rudy?

Murray is the only clear candidate for significant improvement.

[dabom]

Projections should project. This doesnt project. Its flawed. You wanna bet money if Kawhi stays how many wins we get?

[PennSpur]

You're right. No one on the Spurs will age. The fact that the Spurs' rotation is made up of mostly 30+ year olds--Aldridge, Manu, Marco, Pau, Danny & Rudy--doesn't make the team more prone to decline or injury. Kyle's strong defensive numbers were a fluke. He's slow after all, so the stats saying he's valuable must be flawed. The fact that the West got even better this offseason won't impact the Spurs at all. None of the talented young players on other teams across the league will improve. The Spurs will win exactly 61 win games again just like the last season Kawhi was healthy.

Thanks for showing me the light.

[dabom]

You're right. No one on the Spurs will age. The fact that the Spurs' rotation is made up of mostly 30+ year olds--Aldridge, Manu, Marco, Pau, Danny & Rudy--doesn't make the team more prone to decline or injury. Kyle's strong defensive numbers were a fluke. He's slow after all, so the stats saying he's valuable must be flawed. The fact that the West got even better this offseason won't impact the Spurs at all. None of the talented young players on other teams across the league will improve. The Spurs will win exactly 61 win games again just like the last season Kawhi was healthy.

Thanks for showing me the light.

So you cant even agree with your own post. Watch more basketball young one. It's a ST lesson.

[NameLess Scrub]

If Kawhi stays he'll get injured again and just hide from Pop in NY, so Spurs will have the same record as last year :lol

[TheDoctor]

Top 3 in the League.

[spurs10]

He will likely play unless something dramatic happens in the way of an all-star being offered and Kawhi cooperating. I think the chemistry will be a problem early, but then the game will take over and we will be #2 or #3 in the West.

[rascal]

Spur fans still think the Spurs have the championship core. That team is gone.

[itzsoweezee]

They'd be a distant second best team in the league

[ducks]

If he ends up playing what's to stop him from pulling a VC? Not a damn thing that's what

he would lose endorsement money if he did that

[Chinook]

Dude the model includes Kawhi.

https://twitter.com/JacobEGoldstein/status/1016291576753123329

How accurate was his model last year? Stats need to track real life to have any use.

[alpha_HaZE]

A healthy Spurs with Kawhi at an MVP level should be the favorites against anyone other than GSW or Celtics.