ESPN Summer Forecast: Spurs projected to miss playoffs

[Uriel]

Which teams are headed for the playoffs? Which teams are lottery bound?

We asked the ESPN Forecast panel to predict the win totals for all 30 teams.

Here are the results:

Eastern Conference standings

1. Boston Celtics
Projected record: 58-24
Last season: 55-27

Gordon Hayward and Kyrie Irving combined to miss 103 regular-season games last season, and the Celtics still won 55 games. Even if Boston needs to ease Hayward and Irving back a bit, the younger players who sparked Boston's playoff run -- Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Terry Rozier -- will be hungry to showcase their own development. It all adds up to Boston earning the second-highest win projection in the league, behind only Golden State.

2. Toronto Raptors
Projected record: 55-27
Last season: 59-23

The Raptors added an MVP-caliber talent this summer and their win projection is ... lower? Toronto won 59 games last season, but the uncertainty surrounding Kawhi Leonard's health likely left our panel leery of pushing Toronto's win total too high. A new head coach adds a layer of unpredictability to the season.

3. Philadelphia 76ers
Projected record: 53-29
Last season: 52-30

Our panel predicted the 76ers to win a mere 37 games last summer. But voters clearly trust the process now, with Philadelphia emerging with the fifth-highest win projection in the entire league this time around. Joel Embiid probably thinks it's still too low.

T-4. Indiana Pacers
Projected record: 47-35
Last season: 48-34

Our panel is much more bullish on the Pacers this year. In the aftermath of the Paul George trade, Indiana was forecasted at a meager 31 wins and exceeded that number by a whopping 17 games last year. Now we'll find out if the additions of players such as Doug McDermott and Tyreke Evans can help propel the Pacers to a spot in the top half of the East playoff bracket.

T-4. Milwaukee Bucks
Projected record: 47-35
Last season: 44-38

Giannis Antetokounmpo and the inconsistent Bucks settled for the seventh seed last season but nearly stunned short-handed Boston in Round 1. The biggest change for Milwaukee this offseason was the hiring of coach Mike Budenholzer. His playoff experiences with San Antonio and Atlanta could go a long way toward helping a young Bucks squad find the consistency it needs.

6. Washington Wizards
Projected record: 44-38
Last season: 43-39

The schedule makers don't seem too hyped about Washington, giving the Wizards only eight national TV appearances next season. John Wall has suggested he's content with Washington reverting to the underdog role, but clearly there's still a good amount of talent here. The question is whether adding the likes of Dwight Howard this summer is the answer to what ails the Wizards -- or what might finally cause them to implode.

7. Miami Heat
Projected record: 43-39
Last season: 44-38

When re-signing Wayne Ellington is your big summer splash, it's going to be hard to generate voter confidence. Miami won 44 games last season, and our panel doesn't expect much change for a team that's on track to pay the luxury tax despite not being a surefire contender.

8. Detroit Pistons
Projected record: 38-44
Last season: 39-43

Despite hiring the reigning NBA Coach of the Year in Dwane Casey, the Pistons' win projection is actually lower than their win total from last season. Still, the Pistons, who have only one playoff appearance in the past nine seasons, are projected to be in the mix for a playoff spot with Casey's leadership and a full season of Blake Griffin.

9. Charlotte Hornets
Projected record: 35-47
Last season: 36-46

The Hornets are hoping some of the Spurs' mojo rubs off on them. Charlotte hired former San Antonio assistant James Borrego to be its coach, then signed veteran guard Tony Parker. But tough decisions loom about the future of key players, including Kemba Walker and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, on a Hornets team that has won only 36 games in each of the past two seasons.

10. Brooklyn Nets
Projected record: 32-50
Last season: 28-54

GM Sean Marks and coach Kenny Atkinson have done a nice job getting an asset-deprived program back on the road to respectability. But it's reflective of just how poor the bottom of the East is that the Nets are pegged to finish above five teams during the rare instance they actually own their first-round pick.

11. Cleveland Cavaliers
Projected record: 31-51
Last season: 50-32

We see the LeBron Effect out West, with the Lakers projected to vault to a playoff team this season. Well, here's the other side of the coin: The Cavaliers dropped from a projected 52 wins last season to 31 this year. Kevin Love faces an uphill battle to keep the Cavaliers in contention.

12. Orlando Magic
Projected record: 30-52
Last season: 25-57

Steve Clifford will be the latest coach to try to harness the talents of Orlando's fleet of unique young big men, including first-round pick Mohamed Bamba. After a big summer payday, Aaron Gordon must figure out how to get a team that has missed the playoffs six straight years out of lottery mode.

T-13. Chicago Bulls
Projected record: 28-54
Last season: 27-55

Say this about the Bulls: They don't seem content to stand pat. Chicago paid to retain Zach LaVine, nabbed free agent Jabari Parker and drafted Wendell Carter Jr. With Lauri Markkanen and Kris Dunn, the Bulls have an intriguing mix of talent -- or at least more than 28 projected wins might suggest.

T-13. New York Knicks
Projected record: 28-54
Last season: 29-53

New coach David Fizdale won't have the services of a still-rehabbing Kristaps Porzingis to start the season. But lots of reps for Kevin Knox and securing another lottery pick probably isn't the worst outcome for a Knicks team hoping it can lure an elite star to New York during the summer of 2019.

15. Atlanta Hawks
Projected record: 22-60
Last season: 24-58

First-year coach Lloyd Pierce has three first-round picks to trot out in Trae Young, Kevin Huerter and Omari Spellman. The Hawks are playing the long game, which means they'll be short on wins for the foreseeable future. But hitting on draft picks and managing their cap might just be the fastest path back to respectability.

-- Chris Forsberg

Western Conference standings

1. Golden State Warriors
Projected record: 61-21
Last season: 58-24

Boredom was probably the Warriors' biggest problem last regular season, and the signing of All-Star center DeMarcus Cousins definitely adds some excitement. It isn't clear when Cousins will make his Golden State debut, but when he does, the opportunity (and challenge) of implementing another dominant scorer should command the Warriors' attention, along with everyone else watching the NBA.

2. Houston Rockets
Projected record: 57-25
Last season: 65-17

A projected drop of eight wins -- which is more optimistic than the Las Vegas oddsmakers' over-unders -- reflects the perception of replacing versatile defensive stoppers Trevor Ariza and Luc Mbah a Moute with aging Carmelo Anthony and journeyman James Ennis III. However, it's worth noting that Houston went 14-1 in games Ariza missed last season, with the lone loss coming when the Rockets sat all their regulars in the regular-season finale. And the Rockets' record with James Harden, Chris Paul and Clint Capela all playing: 42-3 (plus 11-4 in the playoffs).

3. Utah Jazz
Projected record: 49-33
Last season: 48-34

The Jazz made continuity a priority this summer, banking on internal development as the path to improvement after advancing to the second round for the second consecutive season. The Jazz went 29-6 from Jan. 24 (soon after Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert's return from injury) through the end of the regular season, posting the NBA's second-best record and best point differential during that span. Watch out if Rookie of the Year runner-up Donovan Mitchell makes strides as a pull-up shooter (35.3 percent overall, 29.3 on 3s last season).

4. Oklahoma City Thunder
Projected record: 49-33
Last season: 48-34

Massive luxury-tax implications made dumping Melo's salary a must, but the move might also make the Thunder a better team. Oklahoma City was minus-58 in Anthony's 194 playoff minutes and outscored the Jazz by 32 points in the 94 minutes Melo sat during that series. How well Dennis Schroder, acquired from Atlanta in the Melo deal, adapts to his new sixth man role could determine whether OKC has home-court advantage in the first round.

5. Denver Nuggets
Projected record: 47-35
Last season: 46-36

After Denver came up one win short of the playoffs last season, we're projecting the Nuggets to end a postseason drought that stands at five years. Denver deserves to be mentioned among teams that have the most promising young cores. The Nuggets had three of the seven players in the NBA last season who averaged at least 16.5 points at age 23 or younger while playing a minimum of 65 games: center Nikola Jokic and guards Gary Harris and Jamal Murray.

6. Los Angeles Lakers
Projected record: 46-36
Last season: 35-47

This would be the fewest wins for a LeBron James team in a full-length season since the 2007-08 Cavaliers went 45-37. On the previous occasions when James made a move in free agency, his new teams jumped 11 and 20 wins the next season. Of course, the Lakers aren't adding an All-Star-caliber power forward, as well, unlike the Heat (Chris Bosh) and Cavs (Kevin Love) in 2010 and 2014, respectively.

7. New Orleans Pelicans
Projected record: 45-37
Last season: 48-34

The Pelicans went 20-9 in regular-season games during which Anthony Davis and February trade pickup Nikola Mirotic played together, outscoring opponents by 10.7 points per 100 possessions when that duo was on the floor. That momentum carried over into a first-round sweep of the Trail Blazers. Can the Pelicans, who played at the league's fastest pace, keep running successfully with reclamation project Elfrid Payton replacing Rajon Rondo?

8. Minnesota Timberwolves
Projected record: 45-37
Last season: 47-35

There haven't exactly been warm, fuzzy vibes coming from Minnesota, despite the Timberwolves making the playoffs for the first time since Kevin Garnett was just entering his prime. There have been persistent rumors and speculation about whether Jimmy Butler and Karl-Anthony Towns, the team's two All-Stars, are a tandem suited to last long term, with the former being a Tom Thibodeau loyalist and the latter seeming to butt heads with the head coach.

9. San Antonio Spurs
Projected record: 44-38
Last season: 47-35

The Kawhi Leonard saga is over in San Antonio. Will the Spurs' historic playoff streak come to an end next? San Antonio's 21 straight postseason appearances is tied for second in NBA history. An optimistic viewpoint: The Spurs managed to squeak in last season despite Leonard playing only nine games, and DeMar DeRozan -- the centerpiece of the package the Spurs received from the Raptors -- has been the leading scorer of a playoff team in Toronto each of the past five seasons.

10. Portland Trail Blazers
Projected record: 43-39
Last season: 49-33

This projection will probably be perceived as disrespectful in the Pacific Northwest. But there's a reason Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum tweeted their displeasure when the Trail Blazers let reserve center Ed Davis leave in free agency. Davis, a valuable, rugged role player, ranked third among the Blazers in win shares last season, behind only Portland's high-scoring guard duo. Portland likely needs Zach Collins to improve significantly to make the playoffs for a sixth straight season in the loaded West.

11. LA Clippers
Projected record: 35-47
Last season: 42-40

The departure of DeAndre Jordan, the last of the Lob City cornerstones, is a major reason the Clippers are projected to finish under .500 for the first time since 2010-11. Based on on/off court stats from last season, perhaps that shouldn't be the case. The Clippers had a net rating (points per 100 possessions) of minus-2.8 when Jordan played and plus-4.4 when he sat. Montrezl Harrell, whose role could expand significantly this season with Jordan gone, had the best net rating (plus-2.3) of any Clipper who played at least 1,000 minutes.

12. Memphis Grizzlies
Projected record: 33-49
Last season: 22-60

The Memphis front office firmly believes the Grizzlies can compete for a playoff spot with a healthy Marc Gasol and Mike Conley. They are 65-56 when both of their remaining Grit 'n Grind cornerstones have played over the past three seasons. But staying healthy has been tough for Conley in particular; he missed 70 games last season due to a heel injury that required surgery. No. 4 overall pick Jaren Jackson Jr. gives the Grizzlies a much-needed bolt of youthful energy and a bridge to the future.

13. Dallas Mavericks
Projected record: 33-49
Last season: 24-58

Dallas, which has missed the playoffs in consecutive years for the first time since Dirk Nowitzki's first two seasons in the league, has dual goals. The development of future franchise cornerstones Luka Doncic and Dennis Smith Jr. is a priority, but the Mavs want to be competitive in what is likely Nowitzki's last season. Signing DeAndre Jordan to what amounts to a one-year trial period addresses both agendas, giving the Mavs' young playmakers a lob threat as Dallas hopes to fight for a playoff spot.

14. Phoenix Suns
Projected record: 27-55
Last season: 21-61

Devin Booker's scoring average (24.9 points per game) was higher than the Suns' win total last season. That earned Phoenix the No. 1 pick and the right to draft big man Deandre Ayton, who sees the Suns' young cornerstones as the next Shaq and Kobe. A good first step would be getting out of the West cellar, where Phoenix finished the past two seasons.

15. Sacramento Kings
Projected record: 24-58
Last season: 27-55

The Kings have gone 12 years -- and nine head coaches -- since their last winning season. Maybe Marvin Bagley III and De'Aaron Fox will lead the Kings back to relevance and improve the team's reputation of being dysfunctional, but likely not this year.

-- Tim MacMahon
http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/24365036/nba-standings-predictions-espn-summer-forecast

[playblair]

if there were ever a time to tank now would be it..........zion williamson is the next lebron

1029469057060352000

[Genovaswitness]

fucking retarded prediction. 7th seed with 19M on the bench. leshit and the Lakers are paper tigers

[BSfromTX]

Horrible prediction. Appealing to idiot fans

[Mr. Body]

ESPN is fucking idiotic. Don't give them the clicks.

[DPG21920]

Before SA fans get all butthurt, it’s not just ESPN. Nearly every single model I have seen posted everywhere has SA at 39-44 wins. So it’s not just ESPN pushing some narrative.

The first line in Vegas was released and had SA at 43 wins as the over/under as well.

SA won 47 without Kawhi but they are saying that SA’s win total was inflated and they were really more of a 40 win team than 47 win team last year.

There are legit questions about SA’s defense, rebounding and 3PT shooting. The roster is really unbalanced. I personally think SA wins 47-50 but their floor is much lower than people seem to be giving credence.

[TimmyBuckets]

This isn't anything new. Ever since DD trade, many sources have listed SA this low, and even lower. Hopefully, Spurs can prove them wrong as they have every year.

[Chinook]

SA won 47 without Kawhi but they are saying that SA’s win total was inflated and they were really more of a 40 win team than 47 win team last year.

That's ridiculous. The Spurs should have been a 50-win team last year and massively underperformed in close games. I don't see any reasonable justification for expecting SA to be worse, as they lost to all of the "good" teams last season as well. They even got swept by LAL, so they aren't losing games due to Lebron. SA by and large got in by beating teams they were supposed to beat. They shouldn't have to do much more than that to make it again.

[Genovaswitness]

Before SA fans get all butthurt, it’s not just ESPN. Nearly every single model I have seen posted everywhere has SA at 39-44 wins. So it’s not just ESPN pushing some narrative.

The first line in Vegas was released and had SA at 43 wins as the over/under as well.

SA won 47 without Kawhi but they are saying that SA’s win total was inflated and they were really more of a 40 win team than 47 win team last year.

There are legit questions about SA’s defense, rebounding and 3PT shooting. The roster is really unbalanced. I personally think SA wins 47-50 but their floor is much lower than people seem to be giving credence.

what does that even mean

[phxspurfan]

SA won 47 without Kawhi but they are saying that SA’s win total was inflated and they were really more of a 40 win team than 47 win team last year.

SA really did overachieve last year. But this year they have a fully healthy Rudy Gay with a year in the system, a year of development on Murray with a known role/no TP to contend with, Mills with a known role that he is comfortable with (spark plug again), and of course DeFrozen. They are massively more talented /gelled than last year. Spurs will be contending with the top of the West (3-5th seed) is my guess, since it's the regular season and Pop will again be coaching them well enough to close out games against the crap teams and be in it against the great teams:

1-2: GSW/HOU
3-6: SAS/OKC/UTA/POR
7-10: NOP/MIN/DEN/LAL

[phxspurfan]

Also keep in mind the whole Kawhi saga had to be a huge dark cloud around the locker room, undoubtedly with internal conversations and speculations and guys like Green taking sides/trying to be Switzerland while guys like TP and Manu were probably very angry with Kawhi for not sacking up and playing while everyone was playing hurt. This year there will be none of that bullshit and Spurs may even be on a mission to shit on everybody. Remember how good the Spurs are when they are under the radar.

[timvp]

SA won 47 without Kawhi but they are saying that SA’s win total was inflated and they were really more of a 40 win team than 47 win team last year.


Eh, the Spurs' Pythagorean win-loss record was 49-33 last season -- they actually underperformed record-wise.

The issue is more that advanced statistical models had Kyle Anderson as the best or second best player on the team. The models say that losing him will be a huge blow.

[Keepin' it real]

Spurs projected to miss playoffs

I need a safe space.

[pad300]

We made the playoffs last year on the strength of our defense - and we just traded away our 2 best wing defenders last year (3 best if you include Kawitter's 9 games...). Big SF's seem a pretty critical point thing to have in the current league, and we have no one who can really match up. Not surprising that some people project a fall off.

[Spurtacular]

if there were ever a time to tank now would be it..........zion williamson is the next lebron

1029469057060352000

:wow

[Allan Rowe vs Wade]

spurs will win 48-52 games imho

will 48 be enough to make playoffs? who knows

[BSfromTX]

I don’t think last year win total was a fluke. You add DD to that team and then say they will win fewer than last year? Give me a break

[Spurtacular]

if there were ever a time to tank now would be it..........zion williamson is the next lebron

1029469057060352000

This is more impressive though. Link for all angles: http://insider.foxnews.com/2017/10/23/high-school-volleyball-play-saves-lost-cause-ball

921573400438624256

921824490291646465

[TDMVPDPOY]

spurs will win 50+

league is already diluted with talent

[TheDoctor]

Top 4 in the West. Bye.

[Proxy]

hype the spurs season by claiming this is finally the end to their playoff run, open an extra slot of hype for another fanbase seeing their team projected to make the playoffs

[TDomination]

I'm truly excited to finally be under the radar again. It seems like after the beautiful game, we were talked about quite a bit more.

But now, not even making the playoffs. Please. Last year, of we had no Kawhi all year to avoid distractions, but we were able to have a healthy gay, healthy parker, healthy manu, we win 50. Probably get 4th or 3rd seed. As much as we rag on pop, hes good on getting the most of the role players. This year will be no different. But there will be several people with a lot to prove. Including coach pop. We will be top 4 seed imo.

Also lost in all this is LaMarcus. He had a fantastic year last year. I really hope that continues.

[Immortal Spur]

laughable tbh

[Cardinal]

I agree that it feels great for the team to be flying under the radar again. Takes me back to the good old days in the not so distant past when the media routinely predicted the Spurs' impending decline and each year the team quietly proved the haters wrong. It is tradition.

[Fireball]

it could actually happen ... not having Green or Anderson will hurt on defense as Derozan and Belli cannot make up for that.
If Poeltl is not a foul machine, he will help.

This is once again Pops challenge do silence all doubters of the system ..

[gambit1990]

nuggets, pelicans, wolves over spurs :lol

espn should just give me money to smoke weed and type behind a keyboard.

[tbdog]

Are ESPN just setting up for the 'We are wrong about the Spurs again.' I mean, this is terrible. It is not that we are replacing a injured player with an allstar that is always very healthy, but we are likely going into pre season healthy. Gay was our third leading scorer and was coming back from a serious injury. He was on injury management. Parker was out for the first few months. We are likely going into the season with Manu as the only one on some stamina management program, where he sits out on back to backs. Apart from that, everyone is locked and loaded. Murray and Bertans will be better. We are pretty deep all round because we can rely on more guys playing big minutes due to injury concerns. We have a liable backup big now from the trade. Our shooting improved. The biggest issue is the backup SF. We are winning 50 games this season.

[Stabula]

Spurs will be the 4 seed being pessimistic

[Chinook]

Eh, the Spurs' Pythagorean win-loss record was 49-33 last season -- they actually underperformed record-wise.

The issue is more that advanced statistical models had Kyle Anderson as the best or second best player on the team. The models say that losing him will be a huge blow.

The models also suggest that guys like LMA and DeRozan are neutral or negative in terms of impact on winning. It's fallacious. Maybe they aren't efficient enough to be an elite team or to dominate in the playoffs consistently, but in terms of getting the team up to a baseline in talent, they're about as good as anyone. We all saw how critical Aldridge was to winning last season, but most models predicted and continue to predict that he was putting up empty stats.

[bigfan]

ESPN is welcome to predict the number of hairs on my ass.

[JPB]

Should have sent ESPN some AEP tbh.

If you put the spurs aside, these predictions are just terrible and only based on statistic models totally ignoring external facts such as answering new expectations (or pressure if you prefer, over performing or dynamics.

Its one thing to over perfom when you're not necessarily planned to. Its another when fans, media, the club, friends start to put pressure on you and talk about top seeds, WCF or even ship (I'm thinking Utah or Denver here).

It's also funny as people only take Kwitter's absence from a statistical pov and totally ignore the psychological impact and incertainty that certainly cost them some games.

It totally fucked up the hierarchy and put people out of their role with the team lost a the end of games without any clear closer, Manu having to take over and play more than expected, Mills trying to do too much and fumbling a few games, LMA without any help on offense to escape double teams.

With 2 clear offensive options + an hopefully closer to 100% gay + an intriguing Poetl in the middle, it should take pressure off of the role players focusing in their tasks (Sly, Mills, Dijon, forbe$, Berta, Lonnie).

Spurs 3pt% and total 3pts shots should significantly improve this year.

And there's that Pop guy on hte bench.

In short, spurs definitely make the PO. The more I think about it, the more I see them as high as 3-4.

[John B]

I agree, and Spurs will be playing a chip on their shoulder. They will surprise a lot of teams

[spurs50_]

Spurs coming out of the gate kicking ass.....we'll make the playoffs, no doubt.

[objective]

If LMA is healthy all year ... And then Murray and White play at least 75 games each and average at least a combined 55 minutes, I think they can win at is least 55

[Dex]

Eh, the Spurs' Pythagorean win-loss record was 49-33 last season -- they actually underperformed record-wise.

The issue is more that advanced statistical models had Kyle Anderson as the best or second best player on the team. The models say that losing him will be a huge blow.

To me, this just comes off as a case of trying to make game about the stats instead of the stats being about the game.

Slomo had a good season for his standards, but being "our 2nd best player" is a moreso a testament to how poorly the rest of the team performed. Manu played limited minutes and everyone else played like hot garbage a lot of the time. If Kyle Anderson is ranking as your second best player...you're gonna have a bad time.

Yes, losing Anderson will hurt. But we should be able to count on improvement from Murray's development, the additions of Derozan, White and Beli, Gay being healthy, and Mills (hopefully) finding a way to not suck as bad as he did last year. Losing Parker and Joff should also end up being addition by subtraction (sorry Tony), and we've got the stable of rooks and young bucks (Poetl, Lonnie, Metu) who may be able to act as wild cards.

I know these are all unknowns that advanced stat models don't (and can't) take into consideration, but that's why I don't like them. It's not like we just took last year's team, subtracted Kyle, and are throwing them onto the court.

[YGWHI]

These guys are betting against the Spurs since I can't remember. I'll laugh so hard when the Spurs get #2 seed in the West...

[Ed Helicopter Jones]

The West is going to be tougher this year. I think a lot of teams got better. Even some of the non-playoff teams should have better records....Phoenix, Dallas, Memphis. It's going to be tough to earn one of the 8 spots.

[mo7888]

I expect 53 wins with the roster as currently constructed.

[iGetbuckets]

The spurs aren’t missing the playoffs lol

[BD24]

I still don’t understand why everyone is so high on OKC tbh. They really love fluffing Russ tbh.

[RD2191]

I still don’t understand why everyone is so high on OKC tbh. They really love fluffing Russ tbh.

Media loves scrubs tbh

[BD24]

Spurs will finish somewhere in between what the media thinks and what the homers here think.

somewhere between the 4-6 seed with anywhere from 47-52 wins sounds about right.

[TimmyBuckets]

If Spurs get 55 or more and end up 2-3 seed (which I don't think will happen), Pop should get COY

[Russ]

Spurs will finish somewhere in between what the media thinks and what the homers here think.

somewhere between the 4-6 seed with anywhere from 47-52 wins sounds about right.

I'll go 45-54 (adding some leeway).

The 43 win over-under in Vegas looks like one of the better bets in recent memory.

Problem is, about 10-15 years ago I bet over on Spurs season wins in Vegas then couldn't find the ticket -- dirty little secret, Vegas counts on that and factors it in.

[rjv]

the spurs not only won 47 games in spite of the injury to leonard but in spite of all the drama centered around the whole leonard scenario all year long. also, rudy gay missed significant time as well. to argue that the 47 games won was fortunate is just being biased in order to bend the argument in the favor of the "analysts".

[RD2191]

the spurs not only won 47 games in spite of the injury to leonard but in spite of all the drama centered around the whole leonard scenario all year long. also, rudy gay missed significant time as well. to argue that the 47 games won fortunate is just being biased in order to bend the argument in the favor of the "analysts".

Not to mention the illness/passing off Pop's wife. He really deserves more credit for what he did last season tbh.

[pad300]

ESPN ain't the only ones projecting the Spurs to miss the playoffs:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-our-way-too-early-nba-projections-can-tell-us-about-next-season/

[Pavlov]

There's so much uncertainty going into this season I can see how pundits can talk themselves into putting the Spurs in the lottery. It's easier to bet on Thibodeau's team imploding due to injuries and/or infighting IMO.

[timvp]

The models also suggest that guys like LMA and DeRozan are neutral or negative in terms of impact on winning. It's fallacious. Maybe they aren't efficient enough to be an elite team or to dominate in the playoffs consistently, but in terms of getting the team up to a baseline in talent, they're about as good as anyone. We all saw how critical Aldridge was to winning last season, but most models predicted and continue to predict that he was putting up empty stats.

https://i.imgur.com/g7co6n3.gif

[sananspursfan21]

So they’re not a “Moneyball” team. Big whoop. Also, several teams predicted to make the playoffs are total ‘wtf’s. IMHO they’re way overhyping the Jazz...

[sananspursfan21]

I credit these predictions more to overhyping of the Jazz, Nuggets, and Pels. Not to say they won’t do well, but I bet at least one of those teams goes fishing when 8 other teams are hitting the postseason

[phxspurfan]

I credit these predictions more to overhyping of the Jazz, Nuggets, and Pels. Not to say they won’t do well, but I bet at least one of those teams goes fishing when 8 other teams are hitting the postseason

exactly. I predict the Jazz make it, and the Lakers will also be a new team to make it (just bc of LeBron). One (every year) injury to AD and the Pels slide to 9th. And the Nugz I will never believe in.

[rjv]

The models also suggest that guys like LMA and DeRozan are neutral or negative in terms of impact on winning. It's fallacious. Maybe they aren't efficient enough to be an elite team or to dominate in the playoffs consistently, but in terms of getting the team up to a baseline in talent, they're about as good as anyone. We all saw how critical Aldridge was to winning last season, but most models predicted and continue to predict that he was putting up empty stats.

true. a prediction is only as accurate as the model it is based on.

[D-Robinson 50 fan]

I can understand why they have our guys rated the way they do. I hope they prove all the doubters wrong though.

[Chinook]

true. a prediction is only as accurate as the model it is based on.

I'd go the other way. Models are only as good as the predictions they make. A model that only describes the present has almost no value. That goes double for models that allow folks to believe guys like Kyle Anderson and Robert Covington are more impactful than guys like DeRozan and Aldridge. Mind you, the stats that are used for the basis of that comparison are fine when contextualized appropriately, but the model used here fails to do that.

[HarlemHeat37]

I think they'll make the playoffs and challenge 50 wins if everything goes right, but it's not outrageous to predict that they'll miss the playoffs..the difference between the Spurs/Nuggets/Wolves/Pelicans/Lakers/Blazers and even Utah/OKC is negligible..it'll probably be determined by injuries and luck..

This team is very difficult to predict, though..last year's team won 47 without anything from Kawhi, but they also beat up on the easiest schedule in the NBA to inflate their record early on(easier to do at that point while other teams don't have continuity yet)..OTOH, they lost like 10 games by 4th quarter meltdowns/blown double-digit leads directly attributed to the lack of a go-to perimeter option..

It's natural to assume that Aldridge won't be as good as last year, I'd bet anything against it..the defense will never be bad under Pop, but it's going to be significantly worse with DeRozan starting and Belinelli in the rotation(along with Bertans playing more)..

The shooting improved on the bench, but they're going to be using Murray/DeRozan/Aldridge/Gay as the highest usage players in 2018..disgusting.

Also have to consider the free bleeding that will come from DeRozan and Aldridge, never know how they'll feel at any point of the season:lol

[Stabula]

No one believes in him anymore except me but Forbes will come up big this season. Book it.

[DPG21920]

Eh, the Spurs' Pythagorean win-loss record was 49-33 last season -- they actually underperformed record-wise.

The issue is more that advanced statistical models had Kyle Anderson as the best or second best player on the team. The models say that losing him will be a huge blow.

For sure this is swaying things along with I saw it looks like point differential played a role.

[DPG21920]

I think SA wins at least 47 like last year but I do think they have more downside than most teams they are jumbled up with due to lack of defense and awkward fit.

[FkLA]

No one believes in him anymore except me but Forbes will come up big this season. Book it.

I've always been on Team Forbes, tbh.

[TD 21]

I think they'll make the playoffs and challenge 50 wins if everything goes right, but it's not outrageous to predict that they'll miss the playoffs..the difference between the Spurs/Nuggets/Wolves/Pelicans/Lakers/Blazers and even Utah/OKC is negligible..it'll probably be determined by injuries and luck..

This team is very difficult to predict, though..last year's team won 47 without anything from Kawhi, but they also beat up on the easiest schedule in the NBA to inflate their record early on(easier to do at that point while other teams don't have continuity yet)..OTOH, they lost like 10 games by 4th quarter meltdowns/blown double-digit leads directly attributed to the lack of a go-to perimeter option..

It's natural to assume that Aldridge won't be as good as last year, I'd bet anything against it..the defense will never be bad under Pop, but it's going to be significantly worse with DeRozan starting and Belinelli in the rotation(along with Bertans playing more)..

The shooting improved on the bench, but they're going to be using Murray/DeRozan/Aldridge/Gay as the highest usage players in 2018..disgusting.

Also have to consider the free bleeding that will come from DeRozan and Aldridge, never know how they'll feel at any point of the season:lol

:tu

Stat based models are one thing, but to opine that they'll miss, though not outrageous, is still disrespectful to the organization and specifically Aldridge/DeRozan. To paraphrase Riley, what about the residue of winning?

It's easy to criticize their archaic styles, but Aldridge has been the best or 2nd best player on essentially 5 straight 50+ win teams, in the West (I'm counting last season, since they easily eclipse it with relative health). DeRozan has been the 2nd best player on 3 straight 50+ win teams and the 2 seasons prior, they won 49 and 48. (I realize in the East and their best lineup has generally been Lowry + the 2nd unit, but still). They've also both been durable.

[Kawhi’s_Conscience]

y’all trippin. a demar derozan led team out west is a lottery team tbh :lol

[DPG21920]

y’all trippin. a demar derozan led team out west is a lottery team tbh :lol

Good thing its a LaMarcus led team which we’ve seen get to the playoffs.

[SpursDynasty85]

y’all trippin. a demar derozan led team out west is a lottery team tbh :lol

Bahahaha. Welcome to Spurstalk.

[Holden_Caulfield]

This is my thought initially since we lost Danny and KA without bringing any wings back that can defend well. Hopefully derozan isn't a faggot and tries to play some D

[JuneJive]

Last season was filled with easily spilled leads.

Another closer next to LMA was missing.

They've got it now + White & Murray's development. Also, 2nd unit will be beastly again.

Mind you, all that gets you by in the regular season. The playoffs are a different beast. The dissecting of the teams flaws can then rightfully begin.

[Allan Rowe vs Wade]

ESPN ain't the only ones projecting the Spurs to miss the playoffs:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-our-way-too-early-nba-projections-can-tell-us-about-next-season/

538 is abc is espn

[SpursDynasty85]

This is my thought initially since we lost Danny and KA without bringing any wings back that can defend well. Hopefully derozan isn't a faggot and tries to play some D

Dejounte and White will improve our defense a little but the defensive deficit will still be great unless DeMar surprises us.

Offensively, a better Dejounte, White, Belli, and DeRozan should easily cover plus more with the offense a d spacing that we will get.

[Down Under]

The argument that they snuck into the playoffs last year by 1 game is countered by the fact they missed the Top 4 & home court by 1 game. Spurs could very well have made the 2nd round last year if they'd faced the Blazers, Thunder or anyone else bar HOU/GS in 1st.

[Coach X]

Stats models aren't good enough to predict seasons yet. Advanced stats are useful to analyze what has happened and can help to predict what will happen on a single game but still aren't complex enough to predict in the long term.

I think the low class of the league will improve respect past season. GSW is the only real contender and the followers are HOU and BOS if they are healthy and their pieces fit well. Behind them, there is a big group of playoff teams where the Spurs are. Injuries, in-season movements in the roster, team play, roles adaptation and chemistry will make the differences. I don't think Spurs has more or fewer chances of making the playoffs than any other team in that group. Variables are the same to all of them.

Can Spurs play good defense? can they make their offense work with the lack of 3pt shooters? will everybody find a role where can be helpful to the team and be happy? will the new adapt and the young progress? will the team be able of closing the games (this is a real concern to me)? Answers will set the winning record for the season, there are no stats that can answer yet.

[Dverde]

I’m hoping Barkley picks the Spurs to finish last in Division! That would guarantee us a high seed.

[KlAWKLAMP Redemption]

Whatever.... They just assured we end up top 4.....ESPN= Every,Stupid,Predictable,Nobrainer!!

[SpursDynasty85]

This is my thought initially since we lost Danny and KA without bringing any wings back that can defend well. Hopefully derozan isn't a faggot and tries to play some D

Dejounte and White will improve our defense a little but the defensive deficit will still be great unless DeMar surprises us.

Offensively, a better Dejounte, White, Belli, and DeRozan should easily cover plus more with the offense and spacing that we will get.

[Holden_Caulfield]

Dejounte and White will improve our defense a little but the defensive deficit will still be great unless DeMar surprises us.

Offensively, a better Dejounte, White, Belli, and DeRozan should easily cover plus more with the offense and spacing that we will get.
white wont start. dude barely played last year. we wont be that much better offensively because Derozan is a ballhog and cant shoot 3s and beli is not a starter. we need a 3&D player really bad.

[Since89]

So adding a 25 point scorer will mame the Spurs worse than last year? These dudes get paid to spit shit. Im jelly.

[MannyIsGod]

If you think a Pop team with 2 top 15 players is going to miss the playoffs if healthy then you're out of your damn mind. If injuries happen, then the margin for error is non existent but I'm never betting against a Pop coached team with playoff talent.

[offset formation]

Before SA fans get all butthurt, it’s not just ESPN. Nearly every single model I have seen posted everywhere has SA at 39-44 wins. So it’s not just ESPN pushing some narrative.

The first line in Vegas was released and had SA at 43 wins as the over/under as well.

SA won 47 without Kawhi but they are saying that SA’s win total was inflated and they were really more of a 40 win team than 47 win team last year.

There are legit questions about SA’s defense, rebounding and 3PT shooting. The roster is really unbalanced. I personally think SA wins 47-50 but their floor is much lower than people seem to be giving credence.

There were times last season we didnt have anyone that could score if LMA was not on the floor. Now we have a 25ppg combo guard/SF. We have a healthy Gay.

It also doesn't incorporate the potential of a third scorer in White nor the increased athleticism we will get out of Poeltl. I think just a basic appreciation for Pop and the Spurs way should garner them more respect than what appears to be being shown them.

[SpursDynasty85]

white wont start. dude barely played last year. we wont be that much better offensively because Derozan is a ballhog and cant shoot 3s and beli is not a starter. we need a 3&D player really bad.

Never said white would start but neither did Danny. White has pretty good defensive chops and should help cover some of the deficit over Forbes. White and Belli shooting is probably better than what Danny brought.

DeRozan is still a much better playmaker and shooter than KA. He also upped his assists to 5+ last year. Offensively this team is much much better than last year. Poeltl helps on defense too. I see a slight drop off in defense and a big improvement on offense imo.

[cutewizard]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bRxMdABA1qQ&t=263s

[TD 21]

If you think a Pop team with 2 top 15 players is going to miss the playoffs if healthy then you're out of your damn mind. If injuries happen, then the margin for error is non existent but I'm never betting against a Pop coached team with playoff talent.

:lmao More like 2 top 30ish players . . .


:lmao You really don't follow the NBA much these days, do you? Off the top . . .


I've got 21 clearly better: Irving, Jokic, Curry, Durant, Green, Harden, Paul, Oladipo, James, Antetokounmpo, Butler, Towns, Davis, George, Westbrook, Embiid, Lillard, Aldridge, Leonard, Lowry, Wall.

And 11 debatably better: Hayward, Horford, Walker, Love, Millsap, Griffin, Thompson, Conley, Simmons, Gobert, Beal.

Before you bring up DeRozan's awards or ppg . . .


:lmao Circumstances led to that. The Raptors were the 2nd best regular season team in the league, thanks mostly to their league best bench and Lowry, but DeRozan was their leading scorer (often wrongly referred to as their best player) and is a nice guy, so he probably got a lot of votes from archaic types. Even with injury hurting Curry's and Paul's candidacy, he came back down to earth in the 2nd half and shouldn't have made the All-NBA team period.

[JakeCuenca]

If you think a Pop team with 2 top 15 players is going to miss the playoffs if healthy then you're out of your damn mind. If injuries happen, then the margin for error is non existent but I'm never betting against a Pop coached team with playoff talent.

Lol 2 top 15

[MannyIsGod]

Yeah Circumstances led to Derozan being 2nd team all NBA. One of those circumstances is being a top 15 NBA player. This is not the first time he's made the Mark. Your list is laughable.

[TD 21]

Yeah Circumstances led to Derozan being 2nd team all NBA. One of those circumstances is being a top 15 NBA player. This is not the first time he's made the Mark. Your list is laughable.

He had the perfect setup/storm to fool archaic voters. As an athletic, high scoring perimeter player, he fits the general outline of what most casuals envision when they think NBA star. He played on an elite team (that had no other high usage player playing significant minutes), in a watered down conference and he's a nice guy.

Never mind that he's an inefficient scorer, who is terrible at virtually everything else (to his credit, his play making finally graduated to more or less average last season) or that the Raptors best lineup has long been Lowry + the 2nd unit.

Hardcore types know better, which is why the Spurs were criticized for the trade and are being picked by many to miss the playoffs. If people actually believed DeRozan was a top 15 player, that wouldn't be the case.

[MannyIsGod]

Hardcore types know better. LOL. Hardcore types that list Gordon Hayword as potentially better which is fucking laughable even if he wasn't coming off of a broken leg.

Hardcore types. Should get that tatted on you.

SO Hardcore.

FOH

[TD 21]

Hayward is only a better 3-point shooter, defender and rebounder, with superior catch all metrics, but he doesn't look the part, so I guess he doesn't count.

[Allan Rowe vs Wade]

Hardcore types know better. LOL. Hardcore types that list Gordon Hayword as potentially better which is fucking laughable even if he wasn't coming off of a broken leg.

Hardcore types. Should get that tatted on you.

SO Hardcore.

FOH
manny dont hurt him!

[tonski17]

I believe in Spurs organization and it's players. They will surprise the league. Spurs will be contenders and the streak continues!
GO SPURS GO!

[JakeCuenca]

Hayward is better than Derozan, i dont even think its close. His metrics both offensively and defensively are better as well.

The raptors had the bench last year and ironiclly, i think the Spurs got rid of a legitimate superstar for a legitimiate system player.

[Jermz-z51]

Typical bitch ass ESPN!

[TimmyBuckets]

He had the perfect setup/storm to fool archaic voters. As an athletic, high scoring perimeter player, he fits the general outline of what most casuals envision when they think NBA star. He played on an elite team (that had no other high usage player playing significant minutes), in a watered down conference and he's a nice guy.

Never mind that he's an inefficient scorer, who is terrible at virtually everything else (to his credit, his play making finally graduated to more or less average last season) or that the Raptors best lineup has long been Lowry + the 2nd unit.

Hardcore types know better, which is why the Spurs were criticized for the trade and are being picked by many to miss the playoffs. If people actually believed DeRozan was a top 15 player, that wouldn't be the case.

What is that?

I also can't completely disagree with your list, but I think it can be argued that he's a top 15-20 player. Tbh, I've always been really low on him, but now that he's in SA, I'm super hype lol.

[Gordy58]

I think Derrick White is going to take over that two spot, I see him as a Danny Green Upgrade, he puts up those same 1+ block and 1+ steal stats like Danny but he gives us a new dimension on offense with his playmaking and ball handling ability. I still feel Rudy can be a + defender with us, seeing as how well he’s recovered from his injury. He also fits that 1 block and steal mold. I’m also looking for him to have a much more increased role. We might lose a little in defense but I think our offense is going to be legit this year. We’ll probably have to wait till February to see if we can upgrade the SF 3-D spot.

[Vic Petro]

There won’t be much of a drop-off in regular season record and they’re going to win 50+ games. The difference is a Kawhi team can conceivably make it through the west and into the finals, and a derozan/lma team can’t.

[LCM]

The difference is a Kawhi team can conceivably make it through the west and into the finals, and a derozan/lma team can’t.

A Kawhi team didn't make it through the West. 2014-15 (1st Round), 2015-16 (WCSF), 2016-17 (WCF/injured)

2014 Champs Duncan, Manu, Tony were the leaders. KL was important, but he didn't lead.

And the only reason you say LMA/DD can't is because you haven't seen them do it. Spurs were told this franchise would never win a title, and should just be content on being competitive. Then the Spurs showed everyone in '99 that yes they could. LMA/DD have the talent to win a Chip, they just need to show it.

[Spurtacular]

It'll be Warriors, Rockets, Jazz; maybe the Spurs will rise up to the upper echelon; but that's a pretty big maybe.

[Vic Petro]

A Kawhi team didn't make it through the West. 2014-15 (1st Round), 2015-16 (WCSF), 2016-17 (WCF/injured)

2014 Champs Duncan, Manu, Tony were the leaders. KL was important, but he didn't lead.

And the only reason you say LMA/DD can't is because you haven't seen them do it. Spurs were told this franchise would never win a title, and should just be content on being competitive. Then the Spurs showed everyone in '99 that yes they could. LMA/DD have the talent to win a Chip, they just need to show it.

A Kawhi team *can conceivably* reach the finals. I didn’t say they had. But he was in the WCF against the Warriors and they had a far more talented roster. A few roster tweaks and it’s a possible Finals team. Not a likely one, but a possible one.

As for a DD/LMA-centered team making it through this west, that is not conceivable to me. These are 2 good-not-great players. The 99 team is an awful comparison.

[LCM]

A Kawhi team *can conceivably* reach the finals. I didn’t say they had. But he was in the WCF against the Warriors and they had a far more talented roster. A few roster tweaks and it’s a possible Finals team. Not a likely one, but a possible one.

As for a DD/LMA-centered team making it through this west, that is not conceivable to me. These are 2 good-not-great players. The 99 team is an awful comparison.

The only reason you can "conceive" it is because you have already seen it. KL on a podium with a title. No one could "conceive" SA winning a title until they did it. And you'll never "conceive" LaMarcus or DeMar getting that trophy until they do it.

[Genovaswitness]

It'll be Warriors, Rockets, Jazz; maybe the Spurs will rise up to the upper echelon; but that's a pretty big maybe.

don't really understand the offseason veneration of the jazz..

[Spurtacular]

don't really understand the offseason veneration of the jazz..

Them and Philly both finished with 30 wins in their final 35 games; and they were winning by big margins, too. The Jazz retained all its players.

[Ice009]

Last season was filled with easily spilled leads.

Another closer next to LMA was missing.

They've got it now + White & Murray's development. Also, 2nd unit will be beastly again.

Mind you, all that gets you by in the regular season. The playoffs are a different beast. The dissecting of the teams flaws can then rightfully begin.

Pretty much spot on. The Spurs could have a great regular season, but then they could get exposed in the playoffs. I hated those type of teams. It's going to suck if we become one of those teams, especially after it looked like we were set for a long time to be a legit contender with Kawhi turning himself into a Superstar a couple of seasons ago.

[Vic Petro]

The only reason you can "conceive" it is because you have already seen it. KL on a podium with a title. No one could "conceive" SA winning a title until they did it. And you'll never "conceive" LaMarcus or DeMar getting that trophy until they do it.

Bullshit. The Rockets can win a ring, the Celtics can win a ring, Philly can win. Who on those teams has done it before?

Though, I will say your use of quotation marks is really devastating and a terrific device for asserting your intellectual superiority, so congrats on that.

[TD 21]

Hayward is better than Derozan, i dont even think its close. His metrics both offensively and defensively are better as well.


The raptors had the bench last year and ironiclly, i think the Spurs got rid of a legitimate superstar for a legitimiate system player.

If he can return to his previous form (George did, so he probably will, but you never know), I agree.

DeRozan isn't a system player. He's among the better shot creators in the league.



What is that?

I also can't completely disagree with your list, but I think it can be argued that he's a top 15-20 player. Tbh, I've always been really low on him, but now that he's in SA, I'm super hype lol.

It's a relatively common term, meaning someone who follows something closely. I don't know why that idiot tried to turn it into some macho thing.

There's no credible argument for his being a top 15-20 player. Of course he's capable of playing at that level for stretches (including the first half of last season, which was the best he's ever played) though, as are all of the players I listed and arguably even a few I left off.

[Chinook]

Let's look at this like it's 2012:

Parker -- DeRozan
Green -- Murray
Leonard -- ????
Duncan -- Aldridge
Splitter -- Poeltl
Neal -- Mills
Ginobili -- Ginobili
Diaw -- Gasol
Jackson -- Gay
Bonner -- Bertans

The only position where this team improves on 2012 is Gay over Jack. Mills and DeRozan are close to pushes with their counterparts, and there's hope that Murray and Poeltl will be improve past their counterparts. Offensively, LMA might have it over Tim, but defensively, it's not that close. Obviously, though, the biggest issue is that they have no one who can be even rookie Kawhi right now. Best I can see is snagging Ariza on a buyout. Or I guess Blossom could take a completely unrealistic leap. Had SA secured OG from Toronto, then this could at least be an interesting idea to see how these guys do over the next couple of years. They should still make the playoffs, but they have a lot of gelling and growing to do.

[Coach X]

Them and Philly both finished with 30 wins in their final 35 games; and they were winning by big margins, too. The Jazz retained all its players.
Schedule! The calendar helped them, have a look. Don't get me wrong, I really like what the Jazz do as a team. RESPECT to Quinn Schneider, Mitchell and their guys. Anyway, I think they are being overestimated on predictions.

GSW is on a different level, let's see the impact Carmelo has on the Rockets. Behind these two, there is a group of teams with playoff potential to be proven: OKC, UTA, SAS, DEN, LAL, MIN, NOP, POR, and even DAL, MEM and LAC. Any of this group is a click or an injury away from having a good/bad season.

Is too early to predict who will make the playoffs or not. There are too many variables and too many teams. I'm more interested in analysis than forecasts. You have to wait to watch the teams play, at least. Is crazy to make predictions about team performance when the rosters and coaches haven't even made a practice together.

[Spurtacular]

Schedule! The calendar helped them, have a look. Don't get me wrong, I really like what the Jazz do as a team. RESPECT to Quinn Schneider, Mitchell and their guys. Anyway, I think they are being overestimated on predictions.

GSW is on a different level, let's see the impact Carmelo has on the Rockets. Behind these two, there is a group of teams with playoff potential to be proven: OKC, UTA, SAS, DEN, LAL, MIN, NOP, POR, and even DAL, MEM and LAC. Any of this group is a click or an injury away from having a good/bad season.

Is too early to predict who will make the playoffs or not. There are too many variables and too many teams. I'm more interested in analysis than forecasts. You have to wait to watch the teams play, at least. Is crazy to make predictions about team performance when the rosters and coaches haven't even made a practice together.

Is it possible the Jazz were just really hot? Sure. But they were crushing teams; and I would expect to see a lot of that success rolling over given that they're a young team. For me, I'm not arguing that they're better than GSW or Hou, though we'll see. I'm saying they're a team that should cover 50 wins for starters.

[benefactor]

Spurs will be fine tbh.

[Coach X]

50W may be too many. Or not.

Jazz are not that super young: Rubio, Ingles, Favors, Gobert, Crowder... The team strength is they play really solid, they're not losing against bad teams. I don't think they are much better than any of the other teams of the same group, though. Think of this games: UTA-OKC, UTA-SAS, UTA-DEN, UTA-MIN, UTA-LAL, etc. They will need to play well vs all these teams in order to beat them and they could do it.
All the teams in that group are in a similar situation. I'm eager to start watching games. Can't wait to find out how that weird Lakers roster works, what happens in MIN's locker room, was Carmelo the problem in OKC or will he be at HOU, will the young teams confirm or bust, what about the brand new projects, and what about the retouched ones? No current stats model has the answers, games have to be played.

[Barfunk]

ESPN and the media as a whole despises the Spurs, so this is no surprise.

[LCM]

Bullshit. The Rockets can win a ring, the Celtics can win a ring, Philly can win. Who on those teams has done it before?

Though, I will say your use of quotation marks is really devastating and a terrific device for asserting your intellectual superiority, so congrats on that.

And Bullshit is a great word of dominance, it works for you :toast

[hater]

6th or 7 th seed save a major injury

1st round exit tho

Still :lmao espn