2018 midterms: stats, analysis and prognostication

[Winehole23]

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/cook_map.png
https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings

[Winehole23]

Figure 2: Toss-Ups, according to Inside Elections (IE) and the Cook Political Report (CR)
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/cr_v_ie.png

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2018/08/worksheet-2018-midterms-clinton-obama-endorse.html

[Winehole23]

Figure 5: Districts Likely Targeted
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/target_districts.jpg
In the abstract, taking the 23 seats the Democrats need to take to regain control of the House looks doable (see especially the HRC margin of victory or defeat). As ever, the question is whether these Democrats can do that.
same

[Winehole23]

https://www.insideelections.com/ratings/house/2018-house-ratings-august-8-2018 (https://www.insideelections.com/ratings/house/2018-house-ratings-july-20-2018)

[Winehole23]

https://www.insideelections.com/ratings/senate/2018-senate-ratings-july-6-2018

[RandomGuy]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/?ex_cid=rrpromo

Democrats +5 to +8 or so, it varies.

Dems capture almost all toss-ups. +9 (out of 11)
Dems capture all leans dems. +1
Dems capture all tilts dems +3
Dem capture all likely dems +3

This is a solid gain of at least 15 seats.

Capture 1/3 of the tilts GOP +8
Capture 1/6 of the leans GOP +2
Capture 1/12 of the likely GOP +2

Dems up 27 seats, a narrow majority, seems like the most likely result of such a perception deficit.

Still two months to go. I think the possibility of an outlier, i.e. a huge wave with a larger majority for the Dems is quite possible, albeit very unlikely. A lot will depend on who sits this one out.

GOP voters... always vote. There is little there to mine or improve.

The only real question is how successful our Democratic get out the vote efforts are.

[RandomGuy]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/midterms-2018-boost-democrats-swing-111753863.html

Mid-term turnouts for Democrats was way, way, up.


Wisconsin saw a similarly high level of voter turnout at around 950,000 ballots cast – numbers not seen since 2002 - with Democrats again outvoting Republicans by more than 80,000.

Turnout was strong in Democratic strongholds such as Madison, the state capital, and the largest city, Milwaukee, but also in Republican suburbs around Milwaukee.

“If the election were held today, it’s highly unlikely that Trump would carry Wisconsin again,” said Charlie Sykes, a conservative commentator and longtime Trump critic.

[FrostKing]

Democrats making history with trannys, muslims and black women.

I'm definitely getting on board

[RandomGuy]

Democrats making history with trannys, muslims and black women.

I'm definitely getting on board

Not really a prediction. More like a vacuous door-bell ring. But hey, don't let me stop you.

You do you, man.

[RandomGuy]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/#deluxe

7 in 10 chance of Dems gaining the house.

Average gain predicted by models:
+32

Median:
+30

[RandomGuy]

Democrats making history with trannys, muslims and black women.

I'm definitely getting on board

I will say this though:

Democrats do not give two shits about your vote specifically.

People like you will suck Trumps dick and vote Republican no matter what we do. Standard GOP voters show up to polls at pretty consistent rates, and at greater rates than Democrats generally.

Democrats win by turning non-voters into voters, and getting more people off the sidelines who may have given up on "business as usual".

Should be an interesting tack. I guess we will get to see. I think Trump's long run effect is going to be ushering in Democratic domination at the national level a bit earlier than would otherwise be the case.

[Reck]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/

[FrostKing]

I will say this though:

Democrats do not give two shits about your vote specifically.

People like you will suck Trumps dick and vote Republican no matter what we do. Standard GOP voters show up to polls at pretty consistent rates, and at greater rates than Democrats generally.

Democrats win by turning non-voters into voters, and getting more people off the sidelines who may have given up on "business as usual".

Should be an interesting tack. I guess we will get to see. I think Trump's long run effect is going to be ushering in Democratic domination at the national level a bit earlier than would otherwise be the case.
I won't disagree, I am pretty red pilled these days. 2015 Migrant Crisis pushed me over the edge

2008 I voted Obama. Actually was emotional during the inauguration.

2012 didn't vote but would have Ron Paul

2016 was the first time voting conservative in my life


I think your assessment has much truth. But Republicans are also successful at turning immigrants (my family). Especially those that come from family oriented cultures like Latinos.

Atleast in my family, when we started feeling truly American is when we switched to Republican. We felt Democrats are too focused on illegals or nation building overseas. That is why we hate neocons and their warmongering, spreading freedom, toppling dictators. The GOP has changed (at the moment)

I feel better about the prospect of Trump being re-elected than I did last year. But regardless i fully expect a bashlash in 2022. That typically is American politics. One extreme to the other.

[RandomGuy]

I won't disagree, I am pretty red pilled these days. 2015 Migrant Crisis pushed me over the edge

2008 I voted Obama. Actually was emotional during the inauguration.

2012 didn't vote but would have Ron Paul

2016 was the first time voting conservative in my life


I think your assessment has much truth. But Republicans are also successful at turning immigrants (my family). Especially those that come from family oriented cultures like Latinos.

Atleast in my family, when we started feeling truly American is when we switched to Republican. We felt Democrats are too focused on illegals or nation building overseas. That is why we hate neocons and their warmongering, spreading freedom, toppling dictators. The GOP has changed (at the moment)

I feel better about the prospect of Trump being re-elected than I did last year. But regardless i fully expect a bashlash in 2022. That typically is American politics. One extreme to the other.

The odds of Trump winning a second term are practically nil. He won against the least popular Democratic nominee in modern history by a grand total of 77,000 votes in three states, meaning if 38000 people had voted the other way, he would have lost.

The odds that Trump were going to win in 2016 were narrow, but there to begin with and presidents never are as popular for their second term as they were for the first.

[RandomGuy]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/

Beat you to it.

[FrostKing]

The odds of Trump winning a second term are practically nil. He won against the least popular Democratic nominee in modern history by a grand total of 77,000 votes in three states, meaning if 38000 people had voted the other way, he would have lost.

The odds that Trump were going to win in 2016 were narrow, but there to begin with and presidents never are as popular for their second term as they were for the first.
Hillary was not as unpopular as you make it seem. She was attempting to become the first female candidate

There is still plenty of time but Democrats need a candidate, a message, a direction.

I think since election night the Democrats have gone backwards

[boutons_deux]

Even if Dems win the House, I bet some Dems will still votes with the Repug herd to block real progress.

and then there's the Senate

and then there's Trash to veto anything the Dems miraculously pass.

If Dems try to refund what the Repugs have be defunding for 8 years, then the Repugs will cry and whine "deficit"

[RandomGuy]

Hillary was not as unpopular as you make it seem. She was attempting to become the first female candidate

There is still plenty of time but Democrats need a candidate, a message, a direction.

I think since election night the Democrats have gone backwards

Hillary was deeply unpopular, and had the highest negative ratings of any modern candidate, Trump aside. Most Democrats were unenthused.

That is what the polling data showed.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/clinton_favorableunfavorable-1131.html

[boutons_deux]

"Republicans are quietly hoping the Democrats will win the House.

If Trump is impeached,

their thinking goes (but not convicted in the Senate, as above),

they think it will assure his re-election in 2020.

This counterintuitive notion is based on their experience with Bill Clinton

whose popularity reached new heights

as Republicans doggedly pursued him through the Monica Lewinsky scandal.

They're assuming that the country would be

so impressed by Trump's heroic :lol survival :lol

that his approval rating would similarly skyrocket and he would win re-election easily."

https://www.alternet.org/historic-mistake-donald-trump-thinks-he-can-save-gop-midterms

Clinton connected with people, was very good politician, and had been easily re-elected twice.

Trash connects with no one, is the anti-politician for hate, paranoia, racism, and lost the people's vote by 3M and with Pootin's help

[KenMcCoy]

I will say this though:

Democrats do not give two shits about your vote specifically.

People like you will suck Trumps dick and vote Republican no matter what we do. Standard GOP voters show up to polls at pretty consistent rates, and at greater rates than Democrats generally.

Democrats win by turning non-voters into voters, and getting more people off the sidelines who may have given up on "business as usual".

Should be an interesting tack. I guess we will get to see. I think Trump's long run effect is going to be ushering in Democratic domination at the national level a bit earlier than would otherwise be the case.

I think there's a good chance that the support for Trump brings more conservatives who normally don't vote in mid-terms out in November. I'm seeing a lot more discussion about the mid-terms among those that I know (mostly conservative) about going to vote. Ironically, the talk from liberals/media about the upcoming "Blue Wave" is energizing them to go vote in the mid-terms. These numbers probably don't show up in the primary voting stats because they'll vote conservative no matter who the party puts up there.

Also, a lot of the Hispanic people that I know who normally voted Democrat are very attracted/enthusiastic about Trump. I think you'll see a lot more support from 3rd/4th generation Hispanic immigrants who disagree with the Dem position on ILLEGAL immigration.

[boutons_deux]

"3rd/4th generation Hispanic immigrants"

... agree with racist Trash/Miller/JeBo and their Schutzstaffel's family destruction, forced orphaning of kids?, shutting down legal immigration, deporting long-time legal immigrants, reneging on immigrants serving in the military in earn citizenship?

[Trainwreck2100]

Hillary was not as unpopular as you make it seem. She was attempting to become the first female candidate
There is still plenty of time but Democrats need a candidate, a message, a direction.


I think since election night the Democrats have gone backwards


She absolutely was unpopular, her attempting to become first female president means absolutely nothing because women love tanking other women's chances at anything.

The Dems are waiting for the midterms to see what they can get away with in terms of any 2020 message, candidate, direction.

The Dems haven't gone backwards, this country has.

[Trainwreck2100]

The odds of Trump winning a second term are practically nil. He won against the least popular Democratic nominee in modern history by a grand total of 77,000 votes in three states, meaning if 38000 people had voted the other way, he would have lost.

The odds that Trump were going to win in 2016 were narrow, but there to begin with and presidents never are as popular for their second term as they were for the first.

That's the attitude that let him get elected in the first place

[Chucho]

She absolutely was unpopular, her attempting to become first female president means absolutely nothing because women love tanking other women's chances at anything.

The Dems haven't gone backwards, this country has.

You really are discounting the power of modern day neo feminism and stereotyping women. They don't think that way as much as you want to believe...Why is the country going backwards?

[spurraider21]

You really are discounting the power of modern day neo feminism and stereotyping women. They don't think that way as much as you want to believe...Why is the country going backwards?
her favorables were garbage throughout the electoral process

https://news.gallup.com/poll/224330/hillary-clinton-favorable-rating-new-low.aspx

[Winehole23]

3rd/4th generation Hispanic immigrants also known as US citizens, i.e., Americans

[boutons_deux]

her favorables were garbage throughout the electoral process

https://news.gallup.com/poll/224330/hillary-clinton-favorable-rating-new-low.aspx

VRWC/Repugs have been witch-hunting, viciously harassing, slandering the Clintons since 1992 campaign.

While Hillary doesn't have a natural bone in her body when in public, the VRWC/Repug strategy worked, their shit stuck to her, esp among stupid, ignorant rightwingnut rurals, so-called Christians, and other susceptible tribal-dominated groups.

[spurraider21]

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[Chucho]

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The short of it was just another typical Boots batshit crazy conspiracy theory that HRC has been the victim of one giant smear since she was just a racist, anti-gay marriage 1st Lady.

[KenMcCoy]

also known as US citizens, i.e., Americans

Haha...yeah should have been 3rd/4th gen Hispanic Americans.

[KenMcCoy]

"3rd/4th generation Hispanic immigrants"

... agree with racist Trash/Miller/JeBo and their Schutzstaffel's family destruction, forced orphaning of kids?, shutting down legal immigration, deporting long-time legal immigrants, reneging on immigrants serving in the military in earn citizenship?

All the Hispanics that I know in the SA area support it.

[Chucho]

All the Hispanics that I know in the SA area support it.

Imagine that...people who have no connection to a country they've never lived in not being concerned about that country since they're concerned about their country. A-fucking-mazing. Boots is pissed they don't think the way his Propaganda Ministers tell him they should think.

I heard the same thing while I was on vacation down there from my Hispanic pals.

[spurraider21]

All the Hispanics that I know in the SA area support it.
how many hispanics do you know in the SA area

[boutons_deux]

All the Hispanics that I know in the SA area support it.

you need to know better quality Hispanics

[KenMcCoy]

how many hispanics do you know in the SA area

At least 100...

My wife's grandfather came to the US as a migrant worker in the 30s and had 11 kids. So she has 10 tios and Tia's, each with a few kids and grandkids. So that's at least 60 people of voting and working age. Probably another 40-50 to that I went to school with.

Hispanic Americans (that I know) that actually work and provide for their families overwhelmingly approve of Trump.

[spurraider21]

At least 100...

My wife's grandfather came to the US as a migrant worker in the 30s and had 11 kids. So she has 10 tios and Tia's, each with a few kids and grandkids. So that's at least 60 people of voting and working age. Probably another 40-50 to that I went to school with.

Hispanic Americans (that I know) that actually work and provide for their families overwhelmingly approve of Trump.
and you know the opinions of each and every one of those hispanics concerning this issue? you polled them or what

[KenMcCoy]

We talk...or they post on FB.

[spurraider21]

We talk...or they post on FB.
so for each of these 100+, you've seen a FB post regarding this specific issue or have had a conversation with them regarding this issue?

[KenMcCoy]

Yep, they're all excited for the mid-terms.

[RandomGuy]

I think there's a good chance that the support for Trump brings more conservatives who normally don't vote in mid-terms out in November. I'm seeing a lot more discussion about the mid-terms among those that I know (mostly conservative) about going to vote. Ironically, the talk from liberals/media about the upcoming "Blue Wave" is energizing them to go vote in the mid-terms. These numbers probably don't show up in the primary voting stats because they'll vote conservative no matter who the party puts up there.

Also, a lot of the Hispanic people that I know who normally voted Democrat are very attracted/enthusiastic about Trump. I think you'll see a lot more support from 3rd/4th generation Hispanic immigrants who disagree with the Dem position on ILLEGAL immigration.



n Wisconsin, the contested Democratic gubernatorial primary “drew about 20 percent more voters than [the] contested Republican primary for U.S. Senate, even though the GOP race was more competitive and generated far more television advertising,” according to state political expert Craig Gilbert. Especially striking, Gilbert noted, was the fact that the “ultramobilized blue” bastion of Dane County” — including the University of Wisconsin college town of Madison — “produced 40 percent more votes than ever before in a Democratic primary for governor or Senate.”

Meanwhile, in Minnesota, more Democrats than Republicans turned out in every crucial race: governor (+82 percent for Dems); First District (+12 percent for Dems); and Eighth District (+38 percent for Dems).

If those trends keep up, the party could very well reverse its 2016 losses in a region that’s become a bellwether of sorts for how the country as a whole is responding to the rise of Trump.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/wisconsin-flipped-trump-minnesota-nearly-primaries-predict-midterms-224232166.html

As noted Republicans tend to vote at higher rates than Democrats just about everywhere, and more so in off-term elections.

There is just not as much "give" in their ability to get new people to show up.

Dems have the opposite problem, more numbers, but lower rate. Couple that with apathy or non-voters, and you have large upside potential for new votes for Democrats.

I don't think you, as many don't, know jack shit about "Democratic position" on "illegal" immigration, but that is merely due to the effectiveness of right-wing propaganda.

[spurraider21]

Yep, they're all excited for the mid-terms.
and you've spoken or read from each one individually about that particular issue? lol

[RandomGuy]

At least 100...

My wife's grandfather came to the US as a migrant worker in the 30s and had 11 kids. So she has 10 tios and Tia's, each with a few kids and grandkids. So that's at least 60 people of voting and working age. Probably another 40-50 to that I went to school with.

Hispanic Americans (that I know) that actually work and provide for their families overwhelmingly approve of Trump.

So Cubans then.

Because that is about the only subset that reliably vote Republican.

As for "only Hispanic Americans (that I know) that actually work and provide for their families"... wow, you can shove that sentiment right up your arrogant, snide ass.

[KenMcCoy]

So Cubans then.

Because that is about the only subset that reliably vote Republican..

Impressed

[KenMcCoy]

As for "only Hispanic Americans (that I know) that actually work and provide for their families"... wow, you can shove that sentiment right up your arrogant, snide ass.

Why is that arrogant and snide? People that make more than the poverty level tend to be conservative.

[spurraider21]

Why is that arrogant and snide? People that make more than the poverty level tend to be conservative.
and here i thought liberals were all rich coastal elitists

[KenMcCoy]

and here i thought liberals were all rich coastal elitists

Clinton got 65M votes in 2016

45M people in the US are below poverty level so the other 20M that voted for Clinton are the rich coastal elites that like telling poor people that THEY will solve all their problems.

[Spurminator]

Clinton got 65M votes in 2016

45M people in the US are below poverty level so the other 20M that voted for Clinton are the rich coastal elites that like telling poor people that THEY will solve all their problems.

:lol You think everyone in America below the poverty line voted?

[RandomGuy]

Clinton got 65M votes in 2016

45M people in the US are below poverty level so the other 20M that voted for Clinton are the rich coastal elites that like telling poor people that THEY will solve all their problems.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls

:rollin

[RandomGuy]

Seriously, that took me less than two seconds to debunk.

[KenMcCoy]

Seriously, that took me less than two seconds to debunk.

Lol...that you would think that was a serious statement that needed debunking .

[RandomGuy]

Clinton got 65M votes in 2016

45M people in the US are below poverty level so the other 20M that voted for Clinton are the rich coastal elites that like telling poor people that THEY will solve all their problems.

1) Voting rates by income indicate that 50% of hat "45M" voted.
https://www.demos.org/publication/why-voting-gap-matters

2) Voting rates by income show that of the 22.5M that did vote, went 50% to the Democratic candidate, or 11.25M
https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls

Care to try your assessment again?

[RandomGuy]

Lol...that you would think that was a serious statement that needed debunking .

:lmao

Self-pwnage

Duly noted. Trolling, not serious, and not truthful.

Makes you representative of conservatives in general then.

[KenMcCoy]

:lmao

Self-pwnage

Duly noted. Trolling, not serious, and not truthful.

Makes you representative of conservatives in general then.

Yeah, it's a slow Friday.

[baseline bum]

the rich coastal elites that like telling poor people that THEY will solve all their problems.

You mean like the president?

[Incel]

You mean like the president?
https://media1.tenor.com/images/8bfeca2b81e72ab1300f5582f621e19f/tenor.gif?itemid=5435088

Trump is blue collar, salt of the earth.

[Chucho]

https://media1.tenor.com/images/8bfeca2b81e72ab1300f5582f621e19f/tenor.gif?itemid=5435088

Trump is blue collar, salt of the earth.

:lol

[spurraider21]

blue collar billionaire

[Winehole23]

no haha. anyone born here is a natural citizen.

the second generation, if born here, is native.

"they" cease to be immigrants in the second generation, sometimes..

[SnakeBoy]

No blue wave without a black & brown wave. I don't see it happening considering even Obama couldn't make it happen in midterms. I expect another "shocking" election night complete with a pouting Rachel Maddow and Nate Silver explaining how the polls were right even when they were wrong.

[boutons_deux]

You mean like the president?

and Trash suckered his stupid, ignorant cult that ONLY Trash could solve their problems AND only he had the TRUTH while the press was lying.

absolutely classic, repeated dictator bullshit.

btw, grifter pastors use the same strategy, that ONLY they, with Bibles in their grubby hands to lend them credibility, have the truth, so ignore experts, ignore science, ignore educated people. And as spokepeople of God, please send us money, and buy lots of our shit.

[Winehole23]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/

[boutons_deux]

Even if Dems take the House, they won't be able to undo 10 years of Repugs running the House.

I bet the Repugs, plus Dinos, will block any and all major progressive bills, and then there's the Senate, and then there's Trash's veto. And of course any spending increased (House controls spending) will have the Repugs screaming "what about the deficit!"

iow

America will still be, and always be fucked and unfuckable.

[Winehole23]

The Republican National Committee raised $14.2 million in July -- the most it has ever raised in that month in a non-presidential year -- bringing its total haul for the cycle to $227.2 million. Despite historic odds and voter enthusiasm favoring Democrats, the RNC is finding record-setting support among its donors, according to numbers shared first with CBS News. The RNC raised more in July of this year than it did in 2010 (http://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00003418/489926/) and 2014 (http://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00003418/947111/) combined.https://www.cbsnews.com/news/this-week-in-politics-rnc-breaks-another-record-builds-on-fundraising-advantage/

[ducks]

Even if Dems take the House, they won't be able to undo 10 years of Repugs running the House.

I bet the Repugs, plus Dinos, will block any and all major progressive bills, and then there's the Senate, and then there's Trash's veto. And of course any spending increased (House controls spending) will have the Repugs screaming "what about the deficit!"

iow

America will still be, and always be fucked and unfuckable.



why not move to Canada they are trying to take every gun away!

[FrostKing]

Hey asshats deleting posts

[RandomGuy]

Hillary was not as unpopular as you make it seem. She was attempting to become the first female candidate

There is still plenty of time but Democrats need a candidate, a message, a direction.

I think since election night the Democrats have gone backwards

You realize this thread is about the midterms right?

Plenty of candidates and directions.

[RandomGuy]

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/this-week-in-politics-rnc-breaks-another-record-builds-on-fundraising-advantage/

Rich white donor class knows that the hoi polloi are up in arms against them, essentially.

What impresses me is that many Democratic candidates are out-raising their PAC fueled opponents. Trump is the best thing to happen to the Democrats.

[RandomGuy]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/#deluxe

Back on track.

Odds inching up slightly, as Crooked Donny's dis of ol' Salty doesn't appear to be playing well in the polls. Trumps net approval drops, as does that of his party.

70.7% chance of Democrats taking control of the house.

[RandomGuy]

No blue wave without a black & brown wave. I don't see it happening considering even Obama couldn't make it happen in midterms. I expect another "shocking" election night complete with a pouting Rachel Maddow and Nate Silver explaining how the polls were right even when they were wrong.

77,000/135,000,000

Those who can, cite data.

Those that don't, post bullshit. If you are going to keep posting, let me know, I will get out my waders.

[rmt]

Dem gubernatorial candidate was a big surprise. The local TV stations all expected Gwen Graham or 2nd place poller. Bernie-backed vs Trump-backed - should be interesting.

[RandomGuy]

Dem gubernatorial candidate was a big surprise. The local TV stations all expected Gwen Graham or 2nd place poller. Bernie-backed vs Trump-backed - should be interesting.

Odds creeping towards Democrats at the moment.
Several generic polls show some widening leads that are beginning to move the average/aggregate needle.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/?ex_cid=midterms-header


This has some solid implications for the overall picture of the House:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/#deluxe
Odds slowly creeping toward Democrats taking the House, and that will be mirrored in almost all states.

Deluxe has increased odds by 5% in the last week or so.

From 7 in 10 to

3 in 4

"Trump-backed" will be synonymous with "albatross around the neck".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albatross_(metaphor)

[RandomGuy]

Update from 538:

Odds still slowly tilting in favor of the Dems for the House. 74% for the Deluxe version, 78% for the conventional model.

[Spurminator]

Poll: Midwest Abandons Trump, Fueling Democratic Advantage For Control Of Congress
https://www.npr.org/2018/09/12/646816285/poll-midwest-abandons-trump-fueling-democratic-advantage-for-control-of-congress


The gap has widened to 12 percentage points, up from 7 in July — and largely because of voters in the Midwest. They have swung 13 points in Democrats' direction since July. That Midwestern shift is consistent with what Marist has found in statewide polls conducted for NBC in Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota that showed Trump's support there starting to erode.

"Every way we are looking at the data, the same general pattern is emerging," said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, which conducted the poll. "The Midwest is an area that is getting restless about what they hoped was going to occur and what they feel is not occurring."

[Winehole23]

You can fool some of the people some of the time...

[RandomGuy]

You can fool some of the people some of the time...

https://vimeo.com/265798976

FWIW. This is being replicated in many places.

Our push is for getting non-voters to vote, not increase existing Democratic turn out, although we are all making sure that existing Dems vote this time around.

fiverthirtyeight's forecast continues trend in Dems favor. We are working our asses off.

[RandomGuy]

Poll: Midwest Abandons Trump, Fueling Democratic Advantage For Control Of Congress
https://www.npr.org/2018/09/12/646816285/poll-midwest-abandons-trump-fueling-democratic-advantage-for-control-of-congress
Senate is currently 66% for the GOP to keep control:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/?ex_cid=2018-forecast

Tough map. That will flip in 2020 though. Two more years of an energized and incandescent left will almost certainly mean that the GOP will face some really tough battles for the Senate.

House forecast has been strongly tilting to the Dems in the last couple of weeks now that campaigning is kicking into high gear.
78% chance the Dems take the House, with better than even odds that takeover will be VERY decisive.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/#deluxe

[DMC]

Odds creeping towards Democrats at the moment.
Several generic polls show some widening leads that are beginning to move the average/aggregate needle.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/?ex_cid=midterms-header


This has some solid implications for the overall picture of the House:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/#deluxe
Odds slowly creeping toward Democrats taking the House, and that will be mirrored in almost all states.

Deluxe has increased odds by 5% in the last week or so.

From 7 in 10 to

3 in 4

"Trump-backed" will be synonymous with "albatross around the neck".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albatross_(metaphor)

The predictions by folks like you have a great rep around here. :lol

[RandomGuy]

[personal attack]

[indifference, mild pity]

[RandomGuy]

The predictions by folks like you have a great rep around here. :lol

Polling data on generic candidates is going from simple victory i.e.+6-7%, to blow out, at 9-10%.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/?ex_cid=rrpromo

It's just data. No more, no less. The world is probabilistic at every level, this included.

Feel free to man up and provide your own prediction. We all know you won't.

[Winehole23]

Quinnipiac poll of likely voters:

Cruz 54- O'Rourke 45


In the Senate race, Quinnipiac found Cruz has a higher favorability rating than O'Rourke does. Fifty-two percent of likely voters said they like Cruz to 43 percent who said they do not, while the split was a more divided 43-42 for O'Rourke.https://www.texastribune.org/2018/09/18/ted-cruz-leads-beto-orourke-54-45-quinnipiac-poll-says/

[Reck]

There is no way Cruz has a 9 point advantage. Internal polling must be showing a much more closer race for him to be panicking like he is.

[Winehole23]

that it's even that close is reason for Cruz to be worried

[RandomGuy]

There is no way Cruz has a 9 point advantage. Internal polling must be showing a much more closer race for him to be panicking like he is.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

Quinnipeac gets an A- rating from fivethirty eight, with little bias skew.

We always knew what O-Rourke would be a long shot in Texas. Fun to talk about, but barring some massive Democratic surge, unlikely.

That said, we are mobilizing and attempting to get that surge. Most of us are resigned about 2018, but know that two more years of organizing and preparing for 2020 are ahead of us. There will be little slow down in energy or effort.

Everybody I have talked to, without exception is committed to that.

[Winehole23]

Flores beating Gallego is kind of a big deal in Texas. That used to be a gimme D seat.

[RandomGuy]

Flores beating Gallego is kind of a big deal in Texas. That used to be a gimme D seat.

True that. Be willing to bet that Flores' name was first on the ballot.

[RandomGuy]

https://www.bexar.org/DocumentCenter/View/4570/Generic-Sample-Ballot-PDF?bidId=

Shocker it is.

We will see if he holds it after November.

[Winehole23]

True that. Be willing to bet that Flores' name was first on the ballot.Gallego had lost twice before in an overlapping district, so there's that. Also, special election and the taint of scandal on the Dem predecessor.

[RandomGuy]

Gallego had lost twice before in an overlapping district, so there's that. Also, special election and the taint of scandal on the Dem predecessor.

Why The First Name On The Ballot Often Wins
https://www.npr.org/2016/07/27/487577930/why-the-first-name-on-the-ballot-often-wins

[Winehole23]

in Australia it's called the "donkey vote"

I'm familiar with it, thanks.

[RandomGuy]

in Australia it's called the "donkey vote"

I'm familiar with it, thanks.

Gotcha. Not saying that is exactly the case here, but for a lot of local races like this one, it is something to keep in the back of one's head when analyzing things.

A factor, to be sure, but "the" factor: I see it unlikely. Necessary, but not sufficient.

Whether this stays an "R" is something to watch for, though. My sense is that this is an outlier, but that is not an answer I am overly confident in.

[ducks]

https://www.dailywire.com/news/36048/will-democrats-take-control-senate-all-latest-james-barrett?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_content=062316-news&utm_campaign=dwbrand

[RandomGuy]

https://www.dailywire.com/news/36048/will-democrats-take-control-senate-all-latest-james-barrett?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_content=062316-news&utm_campaign=dwbrand

Ah, the forwarded facebook link.

Democrats will probably not take control of the Senate, until 2020, when a large number of Republicans are up for re-election and few Democrats are.

2 more years of Trump will make the Republican brand look even more shit than it already is, and we will have two more years of an energized, incandescent resistance movement to build up the kinds of campaign muscle and sinew that translates into serious votes.

[Winehole23]

last time there was an "incandescent resistance movement" there was a coordinated, multi-state LE crackdown.

thanks, Obama!

[DMC]

https://www.bexar.org/DocumentCenter/View/4570/Generic-Sample-Ballot-PDF?bidId=

Shocker it is.

We will see if he holds it after November.

Fucking Russians

[RandomGuy]

So the odds have dropped a little... down to 78% Dem control of congress in the more advanced forecast, from 80% a bit ago.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/

Silver gives a .3% advantage to Cruz, on the back of Texas' historic tilt being the biggest factor. I think that underlying assumption will change a bit this cycle.

I can tell you for a fact that Hays county has record levels of voter registration for this upcoming election, and I know for certain that our local efforts have been for registration and turnout.

Texas isn't as "red" as it seems, it just that Dems don't vote.

Trump came along and changed that mindset.

While the exact measure of how that effort succeeds will be the election itself, Hays county has had to add some new polling places to accommodate all the new voters. While the GOP will have their share, the stats would seem to indicate the Dems have a lot more low-hanging fruit in their grasp. On balance, I would guess that more Democrats than Republicans make up that population.

Having to pick one or the other, I think Cruz will lose his seat, and it will be close. GOP will keep Texas state government, but with an erosion of majority.

[Galileo]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/

The GOP will keep the House and install Speaker Jim Jordan. They will pick up 5 seats in the Senate.

I am Rolfstradamus!!!

[spurraider21]

The GOP will keep the House and install Speaker Jim Jordan. They will pick up 5 seats in the Senate.

I am Rolfstradamus!!!

Where is the coverage of Paul Manafort.

I predict NOT GUILTY on all 18 counts!

:elephant

[SnakeBoy]

So the odds have dropped a little... down to 78% Dem control of congress in the more advanced forecast, from 80% a bit ago.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/


Did you not know the polls would tighten as we approach election day so that no matter what polling firms can claim they were accurate? It only happens every single election.

[Galileo]

I was right on 10 out of 18. That is over 50%. Good enough to make money in Vegas.

[Pavlov]

I was right on 10 out of 18. That is over 50%. Good enough to make money in Vegas.No, your prediction was 100% wrong.

You would've lost all your money in Vegas.

[RandomGuy]

Did you not know the polls would tighten as we approach election day so that no matter what polling firms can claim they were accurate? It only happens every single election.

Sure they will.

I am also sure that the Republican party will face a shift in the electorate due to Kavanaugh's nomination, and President PussyGrabber's mishandling of it. Women are ANGRY.

What I do know is that the polls don't shift too much after the end of August, where they stood at a substantial shift.

People like you have been saying "where is the shift, look at how powerful we is" for a while now, ignoring the fact that your party has to cheat their fellow citizens out of voting to do that, and this election cycle would appear to be the beginning of that shift away from the party that used to call itself "conservative", but now is just the Dick Party.

Kind of hard to have a party with ideas for governing if your overriding ideology is to see how shitty you can be to other people.

The language of "own the libs"
"libtard"
"snowflakes"
"fuck your feelings"

Sums it up. Morally and intellectually bankrupt, and easily shown to be so. No ideas on how to solve problems, no moral compass, everything you say Democrats have been for a while, you have become.

But hey, Red Wave. You guys have got it, so you can probably stay home November, and do whatever it is that you do, kick puppies or something, I dunno.

[SnakeBoy]

But hey, Red Wave. You guys have got it, so you can probably stay home November, and do whatever it is that you do, kick puppies or something, I dunno.

lol kick puppies

We shoot puppies with our AR15's dumbass

[RandomGuy]

I was right on 10 out of 18. That is over 50%. Good enough to make money in Vegas.

Dude lost, and lost badly. A retrial would have likely seen guilty on the remainder, by the analysis I saw. One of the reasons he pled out on the other charges and is now telling Mueller everything he wants to know.

[RandomGuy]

lol kick puppies

We shoot puppies with our AR15's dumbass

Sure. That.

smh

[Galileo]

Dude lost, and lost badly. A retrial would have likely seen guilty on the remainder, by the analysis I saw. One of the reasons he pled out on the other charges and is now telling Mueller everything he wants to know.

Manafort won 10, and lost 8. 10-8 gets you into the NBA playoff if you keep that up you would go 45-36.

[Galileo]

No, your prediction was 100% wrong.

You would've lost all your money in Vegas.

No way, if you bet separately, say $100 even money on each count. Then you win $1000 and lose $880 if you pay the juice.

[Pavlov]

No way, if you bet separately, say $100 even money on each count. Then you win $1000 and lose $880 if you pay the juice.You didn't bet separately.

You lost.

Also, Manafort copped to all those charges in his plea agreement.

You lost twice.

[SnakeBoy]

Sure. That.

smh

Dude you've become wound way too tight over politics.

Cheer up, Dems should* take the house by a small majority next month and you can come out of your depression. I'm a conservative so a divided government incapable of governing is just fine by me.

*If they haven't overplayed their hand chasing the Senate. All they really had to do is stfu and they would have won the house anyway.

[DMC]

https://i.imgur.com/P6XduSJ.gif

[Th'Pusher]

I'm a conservative so a divided government incapable of governing is just fine by me.


This is an ignorant comment. Limited federal government and incapable government aren’t synonymous.

[SnakeBoy]

This is an ignorant comment. Limited federal government and incapable government aren’t synonymous.

That context thingy is always tricky for you. If you think a Democrat controlled house and a GOP Senate will be anything more than incapable of governing, you haven't been keeping up.

[pgardn]

Manafort won 10, and lost 8. 10-8 gets you into the NBA playoff if you keep that up you would go 45-36.

Red team let you speak on the radio...

What an abortion.
Won 10? Hung jury is a win... And you go to jail and sing like a canary.
Yea you win cabbage head. You get to spout off nonsense while the guy with the suit and tie serves up time as an old man.

Its all about claimed W’s and L’s because facts don’t exist.

[Th'Pusher]

That context thingy is always tricky for you. If you think a Democrat controlled house and a GOP Senate will be anything more than incapable of governing, you haven't been keeping up.

And? As a conservative that’s somehow good?

[boutons_deux]

This is an ignorant comment. Limited federal government and incapable government aren’t synonymous.

both are objectives of the oligarchy

limited AND incapable by defunding into dysfunctionality, while being operated by kakistocracy whose objectives are to run govt as the enemy of the people and environment.

[RandomGuy]

Dude you've become wound way too tight over politics.

Cheer up, Dems should* take the house by a small majority next month and you can come out of your depression. I'm a conservative so a divided government incapable of governing is just fine by me.

*If they haven't overplayed their hand chasing the Senate. All they really had to do is stfu and they would have won the house anyway.

You should look into who becomes the chair of the House Finance Subcomittee. That should be interesting.

[RandomGuy]

[trolling directed at Randomguy]

You can't talk ideas or values, just personal attacks. Sokay, you keep making my case for me about how little modern "conservatives" care for the truth or anything that resembles fairness or kindness.

Modern GOP has abandoned traditional conservatism and has made "being a dick" their central, morally and intellectually bankrupt, core ideology.

[RandomGuy]

That context thingy is always tricky for you. If you think a Democrat controlled house and a GOP Senate will be anything more than incapable of governing, you haven't been keeping up.

If you think the Republicans are going to control the Senate after 2020, you haven't been keeping up. At that time, the Democrats will control all 3 branches of government, probably by a pretty hefty majority.

Trump will almost certainly be the last Republican president in my lifetime.

[baseline bum]

If you think the Republicans are going to control the Senate after 2020, you haven't been keeping up. At that time, the Democrats will control all 3 branches of government, probably by a pretty hefty majority.

Trump will almost certainly be the last Republican president in my lifetime.

Why are you counting chickens that won't hatch for more than two years?

[Reck]

Why are you counting chickens that won't hatch for more than two years?

Whenever I read "republican x will be the last republican president ever" I chuckled a little.

Like are people expecting to die in their early 40s and 50s? The Republican party can rework itself in a matter of a few years if they really wanted to. And they'll have to eventually when all the ducks and Darrins of the world start dying out which is within that window.

[Will Hunting]

Whenever I read "republican x will be the last republican president ever" I chuckled a little.

Like are people expecting to die in their early 40s and 50s? The Republican party can rework itself in a matter of a few years if they really wanted to. And they'll have to eventually when all the ducks and Darrins of the world start dying out which is within that window.
Not to mention the fact that white conservatives reproduce at a higher rate than white liberals and that people generally become more conservative as they get older.

Anyone who thinks millennials are going to vote overwhelmingly democrat 20 years from now the way they do now is retarded.

[RandomGuy]

Why are you counting chickens that won't hatch for more than two years?

California electoral college votes: 55
New York electoral college votes: 29
Texas electoral college votes: 38

Total: 122

122/270 =45% of the votes needed to win the Presidency are in three states. You need one or two other moderately sized states to go along.

Democratic long term strategy is to get Texas to vote more. Most new votes will be captured by the Democratic party, moving texas towards blue.

Once the GOP loses its stranglehold on Texas, and it even just becomes a competitive state, the GOP will have very few paths to winning the Presidency. They will have to win almost every other state in the union.

Trump, if he is running, will lose badly. If not, then whoever runs in his place will also lose badly, just as Bush's party suffered in 2008, giving the Democrats a likely two terms of the Presidency, meaning the next possible competitive presidential race will be 2028, with another ten years into the demographic tsunami that will sweep the GOP into national irrelevance over the long term.

If you look at how many Sentante Republicans are up in 2020, the map for them has a LOT more seats they have to defend, and defend that in a year that will have seen four full years of miserable failure in the current administration.

The Democratic majority will have the advantage of incumbency and running against a deeply unpopular POS president, backed by his sniveling sycophantic party. This makes the case for who is going to be better to govern easy.

[AaronY]

Not to mention the fact that white conservatives reproduce at a higher rate than white liberals and that people generally become more conservative as they get older.

Anyone who thinks millennials are going to vote overwhelmingly democrat 20 years from now the way they do now is retarded.
People get more conservative as they get older but the standards for what is a conservative change too. 25 years go ago things like gay marriage and pornography were huge issues with christian conservatives and theyve basically thrown the towel in on those. they wanted to ban porn in the 70s and 80s and now I can google ass to mouth porno and be spanking it in 2 seconds atm

[AaronY]

So basically who knows exactly what it will mean to be conserative in say 2035 or something. Maybe very different than today

[RandomGuy]

Whenever I read "republican x will be the last republican president ever" I chuckled a little.

Like are people expecting to die in their early 40s and 50s? The Republican party can rework itself in a matter of a few years if they really wanted to. And they'll have to eventually when all the ducks and Darrins of the world start dying out which is within that window.

The Republican party and its donor class will not allow a "reworking" of the party. They have spent almost two full decades crushing any dissent from a very, very narrow list of acceptable views.

They are so rabidly politically correct in their own way, they cannot change. It has become a cult, with a built in echo-chamber that is very, very hard to escape.

I do not see that ever happening in my lifetime.

I say few things with any certainty, but this is one of the things I am more certain about than anything. The money is too entrenched in its own self interest for that.

[baseline bum]

California electoral college votes: 55
New York electoral college votes: 29
Texas electoral college votes: 38

Total: 122

122/270 =45% of the votes needed to win the Presidency are in three states. You need one or two other moderately sized states to go along.

Democratic long term strategy is to get Texas to vote more. Most new votes will be captured by the Democratic party, moving texas towards blue.

Once the GOP loses its stranglehold on Texas, and it even just becomes a competitive state, the GOP will have very few paths to winning the Presidency. They will have to win almost every other state in the union.

Trump, if he is running, will lose badly. If not, then whoever runs in his place will also lose badly, just as Bush's party suffered in 2008, giving the Democrats a likely two terms of the Presidency, meaning the next possible competitive presidential race will be 2028, with another ten years into the demographic tsunami that will sweep the GOP into national irrelevance over the long term.

If you look at how many Sentante Republicans are up in 2020, the map for them has a LOT more seats they have to defend, and defend that in a year that will have seen four full years of miserable failure in the current administration.

The Democratic majority will have the advantage of incumbency and running against a deeply unpopular POS president, backed by his sniveling sycophantic party. This makes the case for who is going to be better to govern easy.

I heard this same shit about Texas going blue in 2008. About Bush being an anchor around the Republicans necks in 2004. Texas is nowhere close to going purple even and the midwest is trending redder. Making a forecast that we'll never see another Repbulican president in your lifetime is lunacy, especially when we don't have a good idea who will be the Democrats' pick to run in 2020. How many people are going to be inspired by someone like Cory Booker? And yet he's a leading candidate. Beating Trump in 2020 is pretty far from a given, much less winning in each of 2020, 2024, 2028, 2032, 2036, 2040, 2044, 2048, 2052, 2056, and so on.

[RandomGuy]

So basically who knows exactly what it will mean to be conserative in say 2035 or something. Maybe very different than today

Large swings of views are infrequent. If you want to bet, bet on little change. Especially for conservatives, whose general mindset is, by definition, resistant to change.

Not impossible, but I doubt the Republican platform of 2035 will look much different than 2018.

[AaronY]

Lol


President Reagan Pushes Anti-pornography package (http://www.forerunner.com/forerunner/X0397_Reagan_package.html)

By Editorial Staff
Published January 2, 1988
WASHINGTON, D.C. (FR) – President Ronald Reagan recently introduced a package of anti-pornography legislation to Congress called the “Child Protection and Obscenity Enforcement Act of 1987.” The bill’s two-fold purpose is to update the federal law to take into account new technologies and ways of doing business employed by the pornography industry, and to remove loopholes and weaknesses in the law, which have given criminals in this area the upper hand far too long.
The package was developed in response to the Attorney General’s 1986 Commission on Pornography. In the last several years, distributors of obscenity and child pornography have expanded into new areas,” said Reagan. “They are employing new technologies and reaching new audiences.”
“This is how any business grows and develops, except that this business is illegal,” he said. “This administration is putting the purveyors of illegal obscenity and child pornography on notice: your industry’s days are numbered.”
The bill would have the following effects: it prohibits distribution of obscenity through computers, cable TV, and phone lines (dial-a-porn), prohibits the selling of children by parents or guardians for the production of child pornography, requires producers of pornography to keep accurate and complete records of the ages and names of persons in films with the burden of proof for legal age of actors and actresses placed on the movie producers.
In May 1984, the national commission to study the scope and nature of pornography to the U.S. was formed. After 14 months of research, the Attorney General’s Commission released its final report in July 1986 that contained recommendations for changes in Federal Law. Attorney General Edwin Meese III announced a seven-point initiative to address the obscenity and child pornography problem.

http://www.forerunner.com/forerunner/X0397_Reagan_package.html

[AaronY]

Republicans. For the first time, a majority of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents do not oppose allowing gays and lesbians to marry legally. Today, 48% of Republicans and Republican leaners oppose same-sex marriage, while 47% favor this. As recently as 2013, Republicans opposed gay marriage by nearly two-to-one (61% to 33%).
http://www.people-press.org/2017/06/26/support-for-same-sex-marriage-grows-even-among-groups-that-had-been-skeptical/

[RandomGuy]

I heard this same shit about Texas going blue in 2008. About Bush being an anchor around the Republicans necks in 2004. Texas is nowhere close to going purple even and the midwest is trending redder. Making a forecast that we'll never see another Repbulican president in your lifetime is lunacy, especially when we don't have a good idea who will be the Democrats' pick to run in 2020. How many people are going to be inspired by someone like Cory Booker? And yet he's a leading candidate. Beating Trump in 2020 is pretty far from a given, much less winning in each of 2020, 2024, 2028, 2032, 2036, 2040, 2044, 2048, 2052, 2056, and so on.

2052 will likely be beyond my lifetime.

Demographics are not fast moving things, and I would point out, even so, that Trump only won Texas by about 9% with 46% turnout

2012: 16% 43% turnout
2008: 12% 46% turnout
2004 25% 46% turnout
2000: 21%
1996 5% 43% turnout (6% to perot)
1992 3% (22% to perot)

Turnout will be key, and we know this. Not only do you have a younger, browner population aging into voting years, they are PISSED at the Republicans.
Women are PISSED at Republicans.

This will come to a head in the next couple of cycles. Once Democrats in Texas get a taste of having their votes really count, Texas overall participation will revert to the mean for the US, so you will have a confluence of several factors.

"it didn't happen in the past" didn't mean much for heavier than air flight, moon landings, or womens sufferage.

Shit changes.

[boutons_deux]

Shit changes.

wishful thinking.

The oligarchy/Repugs have so rigged the economy, so rigged elections, so rigged the judiciary, that America is now, has been a coup d'etat by the corrupt oligarchy.

Current American RIGGED Capitalism is fundamentally anti-democratic, is why Capitalist America is fundamentally not a democracy.

America is an oligarchy of Capitalists, a plutocracy and kleptocracy.

America is so rigged now, that even if the Dems win Congress next month, the Repugs will have enough power to execute total gridlock, and if anything Dem escapes Congress, Trash will veto.

And like the Repugs, the Dems do what their big donors (Capitalists) want, and that's always to leave Capitalism alone.

[baseline bum]

2052 will likely be beyond my lifetime.

Demographics are not fast moving things, and I would point out, even so, that Trump only won Texas by about 9% with 46% turnout

2012: 16% 43% turnout
2008: 12% 46% turnout
2004 25% 46% turnout
2000: 21%
1996 5% 43% turnout (6% to perot)
1992 3% (22% to perot)

Turnout will be key, and we know this. Not only do you have a younger, browner population aging into voting years, they are PISSED at the Republicans.
Women are PISSED at Republicans.

This will come to a head in the next couple of cycles. Once Democrats in Texas get a taste of having their votes really count, Texas overall participation will revert to the mean for the US, so you will have a confluence of several factors.

"it didn't happen in the past" didn't mean much for heavier than air flight, moon landings, or womens sufferage.

Shit changes.

Anecodotal, but a lot of people I know who hate Trump don't vote. People being pissed at Trump and the GOP don't matter if they don't show up to cast their ballots.

[SnakeBoy]

If you think the Republicans are going to control the Senate after 2020, you haven't been keeping up. At that time, the Democrats will control all 3 branches of government, probably by a pretty hefty majority.

Trump will almost certainly be the last Republican president in my lifetime.

I know that permanent one party control has been "your truth" for many years but those of us living on planet earth know that it doesn't work that way.

[DMC]

The tendency to think the rest of the country thinks mostly like you and your friends do, that's amusing. These are the same minds that never thought Donald would ever sit in the Oval Office. Clearly there are other people not being considered here. Perhaps to much time in the echo chambers has created this illusion for some of you that you are the majority.

[RandomGuy]

Anecodotal, but a lot of people I know who hate Trump don't vote. People being pissed at Trump and the GOP don't matter if they don't show up to cast their ballots.

... and that is exactly what we are working on to change. Moving people from "non-voter" to "voter". Hays county has a record number of people registered, and the elections official that I spoke to said she was still processing more.

You are exactly right. If they don't vote, it don't matter, but Democrats know that, and that is what we are targeting to change, with some effect.

[DMC]

... and that is exactly what we are working on to change. Moving people from "non-voter" to "voter". Hays county has a record number of people registered, and the elections official that I spoke to said she was still processing more.

You are exactly right. If they don't vote, it don't matter, but Democrats know that, and that is what we are targeting to change, with some effect.

You're the same guy who talks a big game but won't spend your beer money to play it. I don't worry about your efforts.

[RandomGuy]

I know that permanent one party control has been "your truth" for many years but those of us living on planet earth know that it doesn't work that way.

Time will tell, and I have never said that one party control of anything was desirable, merely that one party will wax, while the other wanes. No more, no less.

As you yourself have noted the Republican party is in "one party control" in many states for decades, and recently have surged to a record amount of state legislative seats, controlling many levels of government in this country.

They have done this through, essentially, cheating by jerrymandering and diluting Democratic votes, directly undermining the concept of democracy with all votes counting equally.

Hardly a long term strategy.

Neither is the paucity of actual solutions to real problems. The vacuous "culture war" outrage while it may earn sponsor dollars for advertisers in the right-wing propaganda mills, don't really translate into workable solutions.

If the party's policies are based on a flawed understanding of reality, as is often demonstrated here, the odds of workable solutions drops. Reality has taken on a liberal bias in this way.

[RandomGuy]

The tendency to think the rest of the country thinks mostly like you and your friends do, that's amusing.

Polls of policy solutions favored by progressives tend to, on balance be favored by a majority of the country. The information is out there for you to find.

That, of course, assumes you would spend time to determine what the truth is, over simply criticizing me for various perceived personal flaws.

Would you like data on what Americans generally think when it comes to policy solutions?

[DMC]

Polls of policy solutions favored by progressives tend to, on balance be favored by a majority of the country. The information is out there for you to find.

That, of course, assumes you would spend time to determine what the truth is, over simply criticizing me for various perceived personal flaws.

Would you like data on what Americans generally think when it comes to policy solutions?

Truth: Donald Trump is the POTUS
Fantasy: No Republican will ever win that position again

Any questions?

[RandomGuy]

You're the same guy who talks a big game but won't spend your beer money to play it. I don't worry about your efforts.

Another personal attack at the expense of reasoned debate.

More evidence for the "intellectual and moral bankruptcy" theory of modern conservatism. It's almost as if you can't actually debate anything substantial.

Can you actually debate anything rationally?

[DMC]

Another personal attack at the expense of reasoned debate.

More evidence for the "intellectual and moral bankruptcy" theory of modern conservatism. It's almost as if you can't actually debate anything substantial.

Can you actually debate anything rationally?

http://www.reactiongifs.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/crying.gif

[RandomGuy]

The tendency to think the rest of the country thinks mostly like you and your friends do, that's amusing.



Would you like data on what Americans generally think when it comes to policy solutions?



Truth: Donald Trump is the POTUS
Fantasy: No Republican will ever win that position again

Any questions?

So no, you don't really want information on what Americans generally think when it comes to policy solutions for some reason.

Do you base all your decisions on what is true on ignorance, or just this one thing?

[DMC]

So no, you don't really want information on what Americans generally think when it comes to policy solutions for some reason.

Do you base all your decisions on what is true on ignorance, or just this one thing?

Donald Trump won.

Voting Americans by electoral college majority thought different than you.

[AaronY]

R.I.P. Right wing

Circa whenever det edmund burke dude posted about triggering dem libs-2020

https://2488hughes.files.wordpress.com/2011/10/pour-one-out.jpg

[hater]

Repugs keep senate

House is a toss up I will say Demonrats take minimum lead in house. Inhope so otherwise Trump will clean house :lol

[AaronY]

We got em on the ropes fa sho!

All they got is the presidency, supreme court, 31 of the governorships, the house, and the senate left!

Endangered species tbh

[hater]

Inwill vote democrats for house nigas. Its good to have some kind of balance especially wit a nut like Ttump

[spurraider21]

We got em on the ropes fa sho!

All they got is the presidency, supreme court, 31 of the governorships, the house, and the senate left!

Endangered species tbh
:lol

[RandomGuy]

You're the same guy who talks a big game but won't spend your beer money to play it. I don't worry about your efforts.


Another personal attack at the expense of reasoned debate.

More evidence for the "intellectual and moral bankruptcy" theory of modern conservatism. It's almost as if you can't actually debate anything substantial.

Can you actually debate anything rationally?


http://www.reactiongifs.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/crying.gif

So, I will take that as a no, you can't really debate anything rationally.

You prefer emotion over reason, and that is plain enough here, and you have literally made my case for me about modern conservatism's moral and intellectual bankruptcy.
.

Damn, that was easy. smh

[RandomGuy]

Must have hit a nerve. So much attention, I am almost flattered.

Don't have to believe me at all. Quite frankly I would prefer it if you didn't.

Troll away, and I will simply speak to people whose minds can be changed, and simply point to your words and total inability to make a coherent argument as all the proof I need that the policy solutions and preferences Democrats and the left have are the only rational alternative.

That won't be here, of course, but will be out in RL, where it matters.

[ElNono]

We got em on the ropes fa sho!

All they got is the presidency, supreme court, 31 of the governorships, the house, and the senate left!

Endangered species tbh

:cry But the liberal media! Twatter and Facebook facism!

[DMC]

Must have hit a nerve. So much attention, I am almost flattered.

Don't have to believe me at all. Quite frankly I would prefer it if you didn't.

Troll away, and I will simply speak to people whose minds can be changed, and simply point to your words and total inability to make a coherent argument as all the proof I need that the policy solutions and preferences Democrats and the left have are the only rational alternative.

That won't be here, of course, but will be out in RL, where it matters.

You always balk when the debate gets going. I've learned you're just Boutons lite.

[AaronY]

:cry But the liberal media! Twatter and Facebook facism!
It is pretty hilarious how they won so huge last time out and yet still wallow in victimhood lol

[Galileo]

You didn't bet separately.

You lost.

Also, Manafort copped to all those charges in his plea agreement.

You lost twice.

Manafort will be cleared upon all charges upon appeal.

[Pavlov]

Manafort will be cleared upon all charges upon appeal.:lmao

[spurraider21]

Manafort will be cleared upon all charges upon appeal.
:lmao ^ trump derangement sydrome

[rmt]

Not to mention the fact that white conservatives reproduce at a higher rate than white liberals and that people generally become more conservative as they get older.

Anyone who thinks millennials are going to vote overwhelmingly democrat 20 years from now the way they do now is retarded.

Well, my ds laughed but agreed with "if you're not a liberal in your 20s, you have no heart and if you're not a conservative when you're 40, you have no brain" :-)

[hitmanyr2k]

Well, my ds laughed but agreed with "if you're not a liberal in your 20s, you have no heart and if you're not a conservative when you're 40, you have no brain" :-)

Conservatives don't exist anymore :lol They really don't.

[rmt]

Conservatives don't exist anymore :lol They really don't.

Oh, I don't know about that. Older ds is even more conservative than I am (if you can believe that). And some of his college friends are pretty conservative - well, the non-South Florida ones.

[baseline bum]

Well, my ds laughed but agreed with "if you're not a liberal in your 20s, you have no heart and if you're not a conservative when you're 40, you have no brain" :-)

What age are you supposed to become a Trumptard and start semen shielding con-men?

[rmt]

What age are you supposed to become a Trumptard and start semen shielding con-men?

I dunno - maybe when you have children and realize that every dollar that's paid in taxes is a dollar you can't spend on your children?

[baseline bum]

I dunno - maybe when you have children and realize that every dollar that's paid in taxes is a dollar you can't spend on your children?

That doesn't make much sense since he just implemented a 10% tax yesterday that turns to 25% on January 1st on half the shit we buy.

[pgardn]

I dunno - maybe when you have children and realize that every dollar that's paid in taxes is a dollar you can't spend on your children?

Wait just a minute young lady. Some of those taxes go to roads to get your kids to the doctor that I also paid for but not for your kids, for mine damnit. Stay off my road.

You should have walked them out of guilt.

[Reck]

The irony here is that Trump stole from all of us tax payers to enrich himself while he ducked paying taxes himself. :lol

You people need to read that NYT story.

[ducks]

The irony here is that Trump stole from all of us tax payers to enrich himself while he ducked paying taxes himself. :lol

You people need to read that NYT story.

Yeah it is a story not true but it is a story

[SnakeBoy]

:cry But the liberal media! Twatter and Facebook facism!

We oppressed tbh

[ElNono]

We oppressed tbh

:lol

[ElNono]

Well, my ds laughed but agreed with "if you're not a liberal in your 20s, you have no heart and if you're not a conservative when you're 40, you have no brain" :-)

We got the no brain part from your previous posts, and you're definitely conservative, so I guess that either makes you not 40 yet, or the whole thing is a canard.

[AaronY]

So, I will take that as a no, you can't really debate anything rationally.

You prefer emotion over reason, and that is plain enough here, and you have literally made my case for me about modern conservatism's moral and intellectual bankruptcy.
.

Damn, that was easy. smh
facts dont care about your feelings DMC!

[RandomGuy]

You always balk when the debate gets going. I've learned you're just Boutons lite.

:lol

Sure. Keep thinking that.

The day I "balk" at anything you post is the day I eat my hat, troll-boy. Your chest-thumping would be a lot more convincing if you had anything other than trolling in your history.

As it is... hollow words from someone who can't do better.

[RandomGuy]

Conservatives don't exist anymore :lol They really don't.

I don't think they do to any real degree. I have yet to see anything that passes for it in a while.

[RandomGuy]

You always balk when the debate gets going. I've learned you're just Boutons lite.

Seriously, if you think there is something unresolved, feel free to bump the thread. Or you can just keep crying for my attention. :cry I'm not the center of Randomguys world :cry

Jeez.

[monosylab1k]

That doesn't make much sense since he just implemented a 10% tax yesterday that turns to 25% on January 1st on half the shit we buy.

Funny how quick she shuts the fuck up when a basic fact gets thrown in her face :lol

[boutons_deux]

...

[rmt]

We got the no brain part from your previous posts, and you're definitely conservative, so I guess that either makes you not 40 yet, or the whole thing is a canard.

I wish I wasn't 40 yet :-) - well, maybe not - I'd still be dealing with diapers :-(

[RandomGuy]

Manafort will be cleared upon all charges upon appeal.

:lmao

He plead guilty.

[DMC]

:lol

Sure. Keep thinking that.

The day I "balk" at anything you post is the day I eat my hat, troll-boy. Your chest-thumping would be a lot more convincing if you had anything other than trolling in your history.

As it is... hollow words from someone who can't do better.



Seriously, if you think there is something unresolved, feel free to bump the thread. Or you can just keep crying for my attention. :cry I'm not the center of Randomguys world :cry

Jeez.

Damn you triggered. Returning over and over to the same post with after thoughts. I am glad you're considering the truth I dropped on you.

[Winehole23]

“From a 35,000-foot view, the story in the generic ballot numbers is largely one of stability…. Republicans’ numbers have reverted back to where they were in early September, with around a 25 percent chance (1 in 4) of keeping the House. However, they’re somewhat better than than they were in mid-September… But there’s some pretty darn good news for Republicans in our Senate forecast: Republicans have been favored to keep the Senate all along. But their position has improved quite a bit over the last week in all three versions of our model.”https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-kavanaugh-helping-republicans-midterm-chances/

[Winehole23]

: ActBlue, which supplies the digital fundraising platform for nearly every candidate Democratic candidate, said this week it has processed $385 million in contributions during the third quarter to candidates and liberal causes. That was more than the group processed during the entire 2014 election cycle, it saidhttps://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/election/midterms/article219427940.html

[RandomGuy]

Damn you triggered. Returning over and over to the same post with after thoughts. I am glad you're considering the truth I dropped on you.

So, no you don't have anything. If you really had anything you would have posted it.

Hard to be triggered by nothing. :lol

[RandomGuy]

https://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/election/midterms/article219427940.html

Just donated to Susan Collins' future opponent.

Map for GOP in 2020 looks worse for the GOP than this year's did for Democrats. Odds are that the GOP will barely eke out a tiny majority (50-50 split).

That majority will likely go away in 2020.

2 more years of Trump will not make Democrats any less energized or women less angry.

Hays County sees major rise in voter registration
https://www.kvue.com/article/news/local/hays-county-sees-major-rise-in-voter-registration/269-601408880


Hays County, specifically, has the highest percentage of people registered to vote out of all counties in the state of Texas. For the 2016 general election, the Hays County area had about 116,000 registered voters. As of October, the county already has almost 130,000 voters and that number is continuing to rise.

Don't mean shit if they don't get out to the polls, but we are continuing our voter outreach efforts. Nothing earth shattering, just a lot of polite conversations, and listening to people.

Went block walking with a local city council candidate, who has tapped into the progressive movement, and was entirely motivated, as many other women were, to run.

[Reck]

Texas will make sure to purge registered voters mysteriously to keep the game rigged.

Like New York does for the Democrats here.

[RandomGuy]

Texas will make sure to purge registered voters mysteriously to keep the game rigged.

Like New York does for the Democrats here.

I am sure they will. Republicans cheat any which way they can, because they know it is how they keep control.

[RandomGuy]

We oppressed tbh

I will predict that my representative to the Texas house will be a Democrat, who worked her ass off talking to people non-stop. She block-walked and talked to people right up to the point where she gave birth, took a few days off, then got right back out and kept campaigning.

https://www.texasobserver.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/42966868_760463874303060_8777271126897197056_n-360x359.jpg

https://www.texasobserver.org/hays-countys-transformation-gives-democrats-hope-in-hill-country-house-district/

The county was close in 2014 and 2016, but the balance of the new registrations will heavily favor us.

Really hard to tell without accurate polling, so hard to give it a solid "yeah this will happen", but we have a pretty good shot at this.

[Winehole23]

toss ups breaking to the right? the poll is from RCP.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/rcp.png

[Winehole23]

Republican men are more fired up, Republican women, somewhat less than men:


“A rise in enthusiasm, however, is clear among Republicans, although the increase is limited to GOP men. Last week, 60% of Republican men said they were more enthusiastic than usual in voting in this year’s congressional elections. This week the percentage has risen 11 points. There was little change among Republican women.”https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2018/10/05/gender-supreme-court-and-midterms

[SnakeBoy]

I will predict that my representative to the Texas house will be a Democrat, who worked her ass off talking to people non-stop. She block-walked and talked to people right up to the point where she gave birth, took a few days off, then got right back out and kept campaigning.

https://www.texasobserver.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/42966868_760463874303060_8777271126897197056_n-360x359.jpg

https://www.texasobserver.org/hays-countys-transformation-gives-democrats-hope-in-hill-country-house-district/

The county was close in 2014 and 2016, but the balance of the new registrations will heavily favor us.

Really hard to tell without accurate polling, so hard to give it a solid "yeah this will happen", but we have a pretty good shot at this.

Okay, good luck to you. Babies always make good political props.

[RandomGuy]

toss ups breaking to the right? the poll is from RCP.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/rcp.png

Eyup. Five thirty eight's polling aggregate moves the needle a bit less favorable to Democrats, now only 72% or so chance, which is closer to the starting mean.

[RandomGuy]

Okay, good luck to you. Babies always make good political props.

It makes her vastly more approachable, and sympathetic. She has noted that it makes it easier to talk to people, and get people talking.

Erin is, however, very smart and has been working very hard. She has talked to 6000 people or so, and is still getting new voters to register, and having the kind of engaged conversations with people that get them to vote after they get registered.

[SnakeBoy]

It makes her vastly more approachable, and sympathetic. She has noted that it makes it easier to talk to people, and get people talking.

Erin is, however, very smart and has been working very hard. She has talked to 6000 people or so, and is still getting new voters to register, and having the kind of engaged conversations with people that get them to vote after they get registered.

Meh, I just took a look at her website and she's a typical no backbone democrat. Afraid to say what she means.


Texas’ revenue system needs updating. Our state taxes are regressive - households with the lowest incomes pay the highest percentage of their income in taxes; households with the highest incomes pay the lowest percentage of their income in taxes. In other words, those who can least afford it pay the most. The poorest 20% of Texans pay an average of over 12% of their income in state and local taxes while the top 1% pay an average of under 3%. Meanwhile the Legislature has cut the corporate franchise tax.

Texas state revenue comes from various taxing resources such as sales taxes, franchise taxes, natural gas and oil production taxes, and motor vehicle sales taxes. Property taxes, however, only go to school districts, cities, counties, and special purpose districts like water districts. Property tax bills have risen tremendously in recent years, and House District 45 has not been spared in this increase. The reason for this has a lot to do with the scaleback of state support for public schools. This has forced school districts to raise their tax rates to make up for that diminishing state support. Increasing the money that the state provides to local school districts will go a long way to lower Texan’s tax bills.

As your legislator, I will work to diversify Texas's revenue sources, to make our tax structure more progressive, and to reduce the burden on local property taxes.

Tldr version is she wants a state income tax instead of relying on high property taxes but she's too afraid to say it. Too bad, I thinks she's right about that. Never have understood why Texas democrats won't just explain why a state income tax is better than our reliance on high property taxes. It's an argument they could win if they would just make it.

[Reck]

Eyup. Five thirty eight's polling aggregate moves the needle a bit less favorable to Democrats, now only 72% or so chance, which is closer to the starting mean.

I'm curious to see new polls. Post rapeK confirmation.

[RandomGuy]

I'm curious to see new polls. Post rapeK confirmation.

Best guess seems to be a bump in support for Republicans to some degree.

Problem is for them, they won. Losers tend to be a lot more fired up to my experience.

Further, the odds that Trump will do or say something stupid in the next month approach 100%, and that will steal the oxygen from this fire, a big problem for the raging dumpster fire that is the Republican party at the moment. They will not be able to capitalize on it.

[RandomGuy]

Meh, I just took a look at her website and she's a typical no backbone democrat. Afraid to say what she means.



Tldr version is she wants a state income tax instead of relying on high property taxes but she's too afraid to say it. Too bad, I thinks she's right about that. Never have understood why Texas democrats won't just explain why a state income tax is better than our reliance on high property taxes. It's an argument they could win if they would just make it.

She just says "updating". I will ask her what she means. Lucky for us, it is local enough to get a direct answer.

[ducks]

In the CNN survey, Trump's approval rating rose to 41 percent, compared with 36 percent in early September, and 42 percent in early August.

[Winehole23]

shitposting polls in multiple threads, classic ducks

[ducks]

POLL: Independents Disapprove Of Dems Treatment Of Kavanaugh By A Wide Margin

"58% of independents disapproved"

[Winehole23]

thanks for underscoring the point in #185

[Spurs Homer]

29 days before the "rigged russian" midterms

2016 Russia helped team red. 2016,2017 & 2018 - Red team refused to do anything to protect the 2018 mid-terms -
because they are going to be helped again.

When you have a brainwashed cult - you can do anything, say anything, and the cult will refuse to hold you accountable because - well - look at Ducks...

[Reck]

In the CNN survey, Trump's approval rating rose to 41 percent, compared with 36 percent in early September, and 42 percent in early August.

Congratulation on being a couple of point less shitty?

[DarrinS]

29 days before the "rigged russian" midterms.


:lmao

[Winehole23]

your man started that meme, D.

imitation is the sincerest form of flattery that mediocrity can offer to greatness.

[pgardn]

Best guess seems to be a bump in support for Republicans to some degree.

Problem is for them, they won. Losers tend to be a lot more fired up to my experience.

Further, the odds that Trump will do or say something stupid in the next month approach 100%, and that will steal the oxygen from this fire, a big problem for the raging dumpster fire that is the Republican party at the moment. They will not be able to capitalize on it.

People who become convinced they are getting screwed.
The red team usually wins on this.

Its time blue team stood up and people running for Congress like Beto tell it like it is.

“We need liberals on the SC. Our current fair liberal judges who really understand America are old and could be close to retiring or dying. They MUST be replaced eventually by the sane type of forward thinking,liberal judges. We don’t need anymore zealot, I hate your party and I don’t care about America or fairness types. Same with the district courts.”

”You need to vote for me because the Republican lies and mad crybaby gold spoon candidates need to be gone.”

He needs to say it.

I double dare him.

[baseline bum]

People who become convinced they are getting screwed.
The red team usually wins on this.

Its time blue team stood up and people running for Congress like Beto tell it like it is.

“We need liberals on the SC. Our current fair liberal judges who really understand America are old and could be close to retiring or dying. They MUST be replaced eventually by the sane type of forward thinking,liberal judges. We don’t need anymore zealot, I hate your party and I don’t care about America or fairness types. Same with the district courts.”

”You need to vote for me because the Republican lies and mad crybaby gold spoon candidates need to be gone.”

He needs to say it.

I double dare him.

That sounds like lunacy to run like that in Texas. He's trying to argue for bipartisanship to appeal to voters who hate the gridlock of Washington. I don't think it's enough in a state this deeply red but he has gotten a lot farther than I would have ever expected if you asked me a year ago.

[pgardn]

That sounds like lunacy to run like that in Texas. He's trying to argue for bipartisanship to appeal to voters who hate the gridlock of Washington. I don't think it's enough in a state this deeply red but he has gotten a lot farther than I would have ever expected if you asked me a year ago.

Red team will vote. They will turn out for Cruz. No matter what. It may illicit a few more red team votes.

The blue team... they have the possibility of a larger number of voters based on ethnicity and socioeconomic status. Will they vote? They have not before. Maybe if you tell them to instead of this wishynwashy stuff. Define a liberal for them as people who now understand that Trumpian lying must come to an end. Start it now. Vote for me. I will work with sane republicans. I will bring out the Republicans scared to show their displeasure in their leaders deceit. It’s time.

Go for it. Getting close is not good enough, and that’s all Beto is, close. Say it.

[baseline bum]

Red team will vote. They will turn out for Cruz. No matter what. It may illicit a few more red team votes.

The blue team... they have the possibility of a larger number of voters based on ethnicity and socioeconomic status. Will they vote? They have not before. Maybe if you tell them to instead of this wishynwashy stuff. Define a liberal for them as people who now understand that Trumpian lying must come to an end. Start it now. Vote for me. I will work with sane republicans. I will bring out the Republicans scared to show their displeasure in their leaders deceit. It’s time.

Go for it. Getting close is not good enough, and that’s all Beto is, close. Say it.

If red team votes there is nothing Beto can do to win. He doesn't want to motivate Cruz voters. Blue voters are already pissed off and will show.

[pgardn]

If red team votes there is nothing Beto can do to win. He doesn't want to motivate Cruz voters. Blue voters are already pissed off and will show.

Not imo.

The new blue you can bring forth is much larger than the new or the very few disinterested red.
The red team vote can’t get as large as the nascent blue vote.

Thats how I see it right now.

[Spurs Homer]

People who become convinced they are getting screwed.
The red team usually wins on this.

Its time blue team stood up and people running for Congress like Beto tell it like it is.

“We need liberals on the SC. Our current fair liberal judges who really understand America are old and could be close to retiring or dying. They MUST be replaced eventually by the sane type of forward thinking,liberal judges. We don’t need anymore zealot, I hate your party and I don’t care about America or fairness types. Same with the district courts.”

”You need to vote for me because the Republican lies and mad crybaby gold spoon candidates need to be gone.”

He needs to say it.

I double dare him.

After the first (only) debate against Cruz - I felt the same way -
but the more I thought about it - I came to the realization that Beto is sticking to his strategy and - although it is a long shot - I hope he pulls it off.

Look at it this way;

The people on Betos side are voting for him
The hard core repukes - will never vote for him.

The independents - have nothing to lose by giving Beto a chance and giving him the vote - because -look at how shitty the country is doing. The divided state we are in, the disrespect, the corruption.

Here is where I was convinced: There might be some loyal repukes that are just a tiny tiny bit open-minded and will cross their arms and listen - just for a minute or two -

as soon as Beto goes far far left or trashes Trump or goes the way that CRUZ misrepresents him - they will turn off and never vote for Beto.

But - if he shows them a little respect - does NOT attack them for being brainwashed or a cult - or trumptards - lol -
and he shows them that he wants to at least show respect, try to work across the aisle - and talks to them like they deserve a little respect -

there just might be some votes he can steal from Cruz. Highly doubtful - but it is worth a shot. Sometimes people want to believe in something and might be tired of the battle.

Otherwise - the minute he insults them - they will immediately turn away and re-confirm their already red bias. So why not give his strategy a shot - he is riding with that game plan.

[baseline bum]

Not imo.

The new blue you can bring forth is much larger than the new or the very few disinterested red.
The red team vote can’t get as large as the nascent blue vote.

Thats how I see it right now.

Non voters are extremely difficult to convince to vote. His only chance is poor turnout from the right.

[pgardn]

After the first (only) debate against Cruz - I felt the same way -
but the more I thought about it - I came to the realization that Beto is sticking to his strategy and - although it is a long shot - I hope he pulls it off.

Look at it this way;

The people on Betos side are voting for him
The hard core repukes - will never vote for him.

The independents - have nothing to lose by giving Beto a chance and giving him the vote - because -look at how shitty the country is doing. The divided state we are in, the disrespect, the corruption.

Here is where I was convinced: There might be some loyal repukes that are just a tiny tiny bit open-minded and will cross their arms and listen - just for a minute or two -

as soon as Beto goes far far left or trashes Trump or goes the way that CRUZ misrepresents him - they will turn off and never vote for Beto.

But - if he shows them a little respect - does NOT attack them for being brainwashed or a cult - or trumptards - lol -
and he shows them that he wants to at least show respect, try to work across the aisle - and talks to them like they deserve a little respect -

there just might be some votes he can steal from Cruz. Highly doubtful - but it is worth a shot. Sometimes people want to believe in something and might be tired of the battle.

Otherwise - the minute he insults them - they will immediately turn away and re-confirm their already red bias. So why not give his strategy a shot - he is riding with that game plan.

Yep.

And I say it loses.
A respectable disappointing loss for blue.

[baseline bum]

Yep.

And I say it loses.
A respectable disappointing loss for blue.

He has an outside chance of winning. He goes hard left and he gets destroyed in a landslide.

[Spurs Homer]

Yep.

And I say it loses.
A respectable disappointing loss for blue.

Yeah - I fear you are right - I was pissed after that debate - but give it some thought - he might actually be onto something.

Texas is a longshot - I know - I cannot stand half of my co-workers that are stupid cult sheep - they sicken me - I stopped talking to most of them . This didn't happen under other Repub presidents - I understood we just had different political leanings - so we were still cool. I did not see them as turning their back on their country. I did not see them as being complicit in treason, corruption,lying, white supremacy sympathizers, etc..
we just believed in different policies and that was ok. The country wasn't being pulled apart and democracy was not in peril -

So Texans voted TWICE for GW Bush - we are a fucked up state.

Still - Beto - has told thousands of people at his events - that he respected that they voted for Cruz before and told them - I trust that you knew what you were doing. Then he said his thing. Told them what he believed - told them he was taking no money from pacs - told them it was just a movement made of people - all Americans.

Those Republicans that he spoke to - have to at least give it some thought - they KNOW CRUZ is a bought and paid for whore.

[pgardn]

Non voters are extremely difficult to convince to vote. His only chance is poor turnout from the right.

Yep.

But I fully believe the red turnout will be large.
So get the birth of the hiding blue vote or ...

Good job Beto, fairly close. Why don’t we try you as a .... for the future.

Unless I’m underestimating how utterly despicable Cruz is to the right as I don’t really believe there is true independent mine of votes on this contest. I believe red team is not excited about Cruz will still hold noses and vote for Cruz anyway. Trump has and will tell them to.

[pgardn]

I know too many Trumpies who are actually very good people.
First to help anyone in a tough situation types. Really don’t want to get into politics.

They believe a Trump is a liar but fear of blue Clinton’s give them bad dreams. It’s a real fear for them. Red team has done a good fear factor job in Texas imo. And some just vote red because that’s what you do.

[ducks]

Congratulation on being a couple of point less shitty?

5 points up in one month is big
Cnn says 41 means really 51 -61

[ducks]

I know too many Trumpies who are actually very good people.
First to help anyone in a tough situation types. Really don’t want to get into politics.

They believe a Trump is a liar but fear of blue Clinton’s give them bad dreams. It’s a real fear for them. Red team has done a good fear factor job in Texas imo. And some just vote red because that’s what you do.there is some out of fear vote blue because that is what they do

[SnakeBoy]

If red team votes there is nothing Beto can do to win. He doesn't want to motivate Cruz voters. Blue voters are already pissed off and will show.

Yep

Why Beto O’Rourke Won’t Beat Ted Cruz in Texas
https://therivardreport.com/why-beto-orourke-wont-beat-ted-cruz-in-texas/


The average number of Republican votes in gubernatorial and midterm Senate races in 2010 and 2014 has been about 2.8 million, according to records kept by the Texas Secretary of State. The average Democratic vote total in those races has been approximately 1.9 million. In other words, historical results suggest approximately 900,000 more Republican voters than Democratic voters in the average midterm election.

A hypothetical defection of 6 percent of Republican votes to O’Rourke subtracts about 168,000 votes from the average GOP vote total.

Even if we were to assume that all of these Republican voters fled to O’Rourke – as opposed to just staying home – that would leave Cruz ahead by approximately 564,000 votes. Could Democrats increase turnout enough to close that gap?

It would be an uphill battle, with hopes of victory resting on mobilizing groups with historically low turnout levels in midterm elections, such as young voters and Democratic-leaning Latinos. Exit polls for recent elections illustrate just how difficult this has been in recent history. Latinos, for example, made up only 17 percent of the electorate in 2014. In that year, nearly half of Latino voters backed the Republican candidate, and the Democrat lost by 20 percentage points.

But let’s imagine that O’Rourke manages to mobilize an additional 20 percent to the baseline Democratic vote – an optimistic estimate for O’Rourke. That would add another 380,000 votes to the Democrat’s total – still short of Cruz’s projected vote total by 184,000 votes.

So 6% of Republicans vote for Beto and 20% more democrats vote and he still loses. Or an awful lot of republicans have to stay home to get Beto over the top.

[baseline bum]

Yep.

But I fully believe the red turnout will be large.
So get the birth of the hiding blue vote or ...

Good job Beto, fairly close. Why don’t we try you as a .... for the future.

Unless I’m underestimating how utterly despicable Cruz is to the right as I don’t really believe there is true independent mine of votes on this contest. I believe red team is not excited about Cruz will still hold noses and vote for Cruz anyway. Trump has and will tell them to.

I think trying to turn non voters into voters is a losing strategy. I can't tell you how frustrating it is hearing my neighbors tell me how much they hate Trump, they hate Cruz, and then they say they didn't vote. None of them are immigrants much less illegals. We're not going to get automatic voter registration or same day registration ever in Texas, the Republicans depend on the silent majority staying silent.

This is a seat that really shouldn't be up for grabs in any normal election year. I feel like Beto going left would be the same miscalculation Romney made in picking Ryan as his running mate and going right when he had a base already extremely motivated by the scary negro in the white house. All that did was fire up the left that didn't give a shit two years before.

[DarrinS]

Millennials gonna save the Dems, lol

1049730988547420160

[Reck]

Millennials gonna save the Dems, lol

1049730988547420160

You're really going on a limb there. Interview a couple of kids and make your case. :lol

When people talk about millennials, they dont mean barely out of school kids. Ask people in the range of 25-30 and you will have different answers.

Personally I didn't follow politics or anything relating to it until Obama's second term where I turned 27.

[Winehole23]

universalizing an anecdote is the classic DarrinS maneuver

[Fabbs]

Al Gore vs Bush Jr.
Shillary vs The Don early on.


Dems are proven capable of phucking up huge leads with their fake bullshit.

So I don't know that some huge switch back to the Demons is coming.

[ducks]

Forty-seven percent of Arizona’s likely voters back Republican Martha McSally in the Arizona Senate race compared to 41 percent who support Democrat Kyrsten Sinema, according to a new ABC15/OH Predictive Insights poll.

The poll revealed McSally is increasing her support. A September ABC15/OHPI poll showed her leading 49-46 percent.

[ducks]

Pollster Mike Noble credited the Brett Kavanaugh Supreme Court nomination with helping McSally increase her lead.

"What we saw all year was Republicans were less united compared to Democrats, who were more united or fully united," Noble said.

"So, whether they disliked Trump or had issues with the establishment, now what we've seen is (the) Kavanaugh confirmation process has really brought all those Republicans home and has solidified the Republican base, hence why you're seeing all the favorable numbers toward McSally."

[ducks]

According to Real Clear Politics' average of the key polls, only seven Senate seats are true "toss ups" — and to take control of the chamber, the Democrats have to win all seven. To make matters worse for Democrats, the so-called "Kavanaugh effect" appears to be real and seems to particularly impacting a few of those toss-up seats.

RCP currently gives Republicans 49 seats that are either "safe" or not up for reelection. Prior to the Kavanaugh allegations, that number was 47. Meanwhile, the Democrats safely have 44 seats, which means they need to win all seven of the remaining toss ups to gain the 51-seat majority in the Senate. Post-Kavanaugh, that prospect is looking less and less likely.

[ducks]

A new poll has found that Rep. Beto O’Rourke’s long-shot quest to unseat Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, which has generated so much enthusiasm and financial support from national Democrats, has stalled well short of success.

A Quinnipiac University poll released Thursday found Cruz leading O’Rourke 54 percent to 45 percent among likely Texas voters — roughly unchanged since a Quinnipiac poll taken in September.

[Reck]

RIP Democratic party

[baseline bum]

RIP Democratic party

If they choke house control away in this political environment with this pos president then yes, RIP Democratic party.

[Isitjustme?]

Pollster Mike Noble credited the Brett Kavanaugh Supreme Court nomination with helping McSally increase her lead.

"What we saw all year was Republicans were less united compared to Democrats, who were more united or fully united," Noble said.

"So, whether they disliked Trump or had issues with the establishment, now what we've seen is (the) Kavanaugh confirmation process has really brought all those Republicans home and has solidified the Republican base, hence why you're seeing all the favorable numbers toward McSally."

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/az/arizona_senate_mcsally_vs_sinema-6328.html

[Isitjustme?]

Toss up basically; three other polls including Fox News show Sinema up slightly

[boutons_deux]

So I don't know that some huge switch back to the Demons is coming.

In the Senate, it won't happen due to the Constitution giving low-pop states 2 Senators, where nearly all the low-pop states are irretrievably Repug.

To disastrous effect (for the non-oligarchy), there is "minority rule" in the Senate which can block, or gut, all progressive bills coming from a heavily Dem House (which requires winning the popular vote by at least 7% just to break even with the vote suppressing, gerrymandering Repugs)

... and the minority rule Repug Senate can continue polluting the Federal judiciary with right-wing extremist scumbags like K, and blocking progressive judges.

It's pretty obvious here the nearly everybody here "believes in an America" that will self-correct the current disaster of being owned and operated by the oligarchy.

ain't gonna happen.

The untouchable, unstoppable oligarchy will not yield their ever-increasing power and wealth.

[ducks]

Toss up basically; three other polls including Fox News show Sinema up slightly

She just got the bumb how old are those polls

[Isitjustme?]

She just got the bumb how old are those polls
The dates are listed here if you look https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/az/arizona_senate_mcsally_vs_sinema-6328.html

Its close but mcsally is definitely surging

[ducks]

Marsha Blackburn up 14 percent despite Taylor Swift's plea for opponent Phil Bredesen in Tennessee race

[Reck]

Marsha Blackburn up 14 percent despite Taylor Swift's plea for opponent Phil Bredesen in Tennessee race

Just like magic.

[Reck]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-tnsen-2.html

Oops

[SnakeBoy]

The dates are listed here if you look https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/az/arizona_senate_mcsally_vs_sinema-6328.html

Its close but mcsally is definitely surging

All the tapes of Sinema espousing far far left views have been hurting her. The latest one should do her in.

1050413496335298560

Don't insult the people you are asking to vote for you. Why is this so hard for Dems to understand?

[Reck]

All the tapes of Sinema espousing far far left views have been hurting her. The latest one should do her in.

1050413496335298560

Don't insult the people you are asking to vote for you. Why is this so hard for Dems to understand?

lol do her in. :lol

[LGBTQIAPK & G-D]

lol do her in. :lol

:lol

[ducks]

A 9 point shift towards Heller in a month


https://mobile.twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1051822332535341056?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5 Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1051822332535341056&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailywire.com%2Fnews%2F3 7139%2Fred-wave-nevada-poll-shows-dramatic-swing-james-barrett

[SnakeBoy]

A 9 point shift towards Heller in a month


https://mobile.twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1051822332535341056?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5 Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1051822332535341056&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailywire.com%2Fnews%2F3 7139%2Fred-wave-nevada-poll-shows-dramatic-swing-james-barrett

Best comment

1051831511664795648

[Reck]

Best comment

1051831511664795648

I like how all these questionable polls have every republicans like yourself excited for nothing.

#IComefromthefuture worst blue wave ever. :lol

[LGBTQIAPK & G-D]

I like how all these questionable polls have every republicans like yourself excited for nothing.

#IComefromthefuture worst blue wave ever. :lol

:lol Nice, girl.
:lol Good ambiguity too; covering your bases.

[Chris]

1052307955209519105

[Chris]

1052327931916238848

[Chris]

1052241079628652544
1052241302736330752
1052241498505445378

"Somebody do something!" :lol

[Reck]

1052241079628652544
1052241302736330752
1052241498505445378

"Somebody do something!" :lol

LOL Hillary telling anyone where they need to go to turn out voters. :lol

[Chris]

LOL Hillary telling anyone where they need to go to turn out voters. :lol

She's the gift that keeps on giving tbh :lol


1052202944072945664

[Chris]

1053028688546140161

[Chris]

1053271529163755520

[Reck]

Fox is on the case. Your move, libtards!

[Pavlov]

Chrisbot in danger of overheating at this point.