timvp
10-03-2018, 01:01 PM
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-Our eyes said LaMarcus Aldridge carried the team last season. These player pairs statistics back that up. Every player did better with Aldridge on the court. While he was really good on defense, it was his offensive production that provided the most value. As you can see, every player saw a boost offensively when paired with Aldridge. Going forward, San Antonio just has to hope that the 33-year-old can play as well this year as he did last season.
-Dejounte Murray was the youngest player ever named to an All-Defense team. The numbers say he richly deserved that honor. It’s actually stunning how much of an impact Murray had on defense. It’s not an overstatement to say Murray’s defense was the best thing the Spurs had going last year. Every player outside of Ginobili turned into an elite defender when paired with Murray. The Spurs gave up 7.6 less points per 100 possessions with Murray on the court. To put that in perspective, that’s a larger margin than two-time Defensive Player of the Year Kawhi Leonard ever posted as a Spur. To find a Spurs perimeter player who made such a difference on defense, you’d probably have to go back to 2007 Bruce Bowen and San Antonio giving up 9.1 less points per 100 possessions he was on the court.
-Offense was a different story for Murray. The Spurs seemed to sputter with the young point running the show and these stats back up that observation. He will need to make a jump this coming season if he’s not to hurt the team offensively when he’s on the court. The good news, however, is that even with his anemic offensive showing last season, Murray’s defense more than made up for it. He actually tied Aldrige for the best overall mark on the team.
-Going by these numbers, Pop should definitely ride Murray as much as possible this coming season. He averaged 21 minutes per game last year. This year, at least early in the season in order to see if these trends will continue, Murray should be given 30-plus minutes. If the Spurs are going to surprise, it’s going to be because their 22-year-old point guard took another step forward. I’m hoping he’s at least given the shot.
-I wanted Manu Ginobili and/or Tony Parker to return for another year for sentimental, corporate knowledge and culture reasons. However, these player pairs numbers indicate that basketball-wise it was probably a good time to part ways, sadly enough. While Ginobili’s offensive genius remained valuable to the end, age had obviously robbed a lot of his athleticism as he graded out as by far the team’s worst defender. His defense was so bad that it overshadowed his offensive contributions. Parker, for his part, was detrimental on both sides of the court. Father time remains undefeated, unfortunately.
-My primary hesitation in the Spurs matching the Grizzlies four-year, $37.2 million offer to Kyle Anderson was his poor fit next to Murray. It’s difficult to thrive in today’s NBA with multiple players on the court who are hesitant to shoot. Murray and Anderson were just a bad fit next to each other – and these numbers emphasize that. They made each other worse on offense and I don’t think that was a solvable problem going forward. Anderson had a really solid season on both ends but wasn’t enough of a standout to invest that much money in when factoring in his poor fit next to Murray. The Spurs had to pick one and I’m glad they went with the younger one with the higher ceiling.
-Being able to bring back Davis Bertans made the Anderson departure easier to swallow. While Bertans wasn’t as good as Anderson last year, it was relatively close. Importantly, though, Bertans was fantastic when paired with both Aldridge and Murray. As is apparent, lineups with Aldridge at center and Bertans at power forward did really well. Bertans not only helped Murray on offense but they dominated defensively when on the court together. In retrospect, Bertans at two years and $14 million looks like a much better deal for the Spurs than what Anderson got from Memphis.
-Danny Green is another player I was sad to see go but these stats go along with the obvious observation that his peak is in his rearview mirror. His defense was still good but nothing too notable. His offensive impact was limited. Like Anderson, Green’s one-dimensional offensive repertoire appeared to be a bad fit on team built around Murray and these numbers agree.
-Looking forward, Bryn Forbes actually looks like a good fit. I’m sure his player pairs results are better than most Spurs fans would have expected. He plays good with Aldridge and it looks like he can thrive next to Murray (particularly defensively, which is surprising). It’s sacrilege to say but it can be argued that giving Forbes minutes this season is a better alternative than giving minutes to Green or Ginobili, especially when considering the fact that Forbes should be improved after what was essentially his rookie season.
-Patty Mills is who we thought he was: a spark plug on offense who doesn’t play much defense anymore. He does have quite a bit of value, which is good considering the amount of money left on his contract ($39 million over three years). Mills plays well with Aldridge; the offense flows well when they’re on the court at the same time and Aldridge helps Mills from being too much of a liability on defense. After looking at these player pairs stats, Pop starting Mills next to Murray last season made a lot of sense. The offense really improves when Mills is on the court with Murray and the defense doesn’t suffer an unreasonable amount.
-Rudy Gay has never been an advanced stats standout. In fact, it’s been quite the opposite over the course of his career. In his first season with the Spurs, Gay lived down to his reputation. While he helped the team a little bit on offense, his defense more than made up the difference in the wrong direction. All that said, I don’t think it was necessarily a mistake to re-sign him to a one-year, $10 million contract. Gay has a few things going for him: 1) He should be more comfortable with a year in the system under his belt. 2) He should be more confident health-wise. 3) The dynamics could change if the Spurs plan to start him at small forward this season rather than use him as a backup power forward.
-Pau Gasol is the anti-Mills. He graded out as the second best defensive player after Murray but is by far the worst offensive player. Unlike Mills, though, it’s not clear that Gasol brings enough value on his strong end to compensate for his weakness on the other end. Now 38 years old, Gasol is in danger of becoming a millstone tied around the starting lineup’s neck. For the Spurs to be successful, Pop has to keep a close eye on Gasol and be willing to pull the plug if the Hall of Famer’s career flatlines.
- I didn’t do player pairs for the Raptors but DeMar DeRozan would look a lot like Ginobili (great on offense, poor on defense), while Jakob Poeltl would probably have an equal amount of green and red on both offense and defense – so somewhat similar to Green.
-As you’d probably guess, Marco Belinelli was outstanding on offense and bad on offense during his previous stint with the Spurs. Like Ginobili (and DeRozan), he’d mostly be green on offense and mostly red on defense.
-In Derrick White’s limited playing time as a rookie, his defense graded out as being elite. But given the fact that he only played 139 minutes last season, we should take that with a couple grains of salt.
-With the disclaimer that player pairs are limited as a predictor due to the small sample sizes involved, the starting lineup that jumps off the sheet is Murray, Mills, DeRozan, Bertans and Aldridge with the bench fivesome being White, Forbes, Belinelli, Gay and Poeltl (or Gasol). That would give the starting unit and the bench unit a good mix of both offensive and defensive players. While the starters look small, if these player pairs numbers hold up, Murray, Bertans and Aldridge should be enough to hold up defensively. On offense, they could be really good, most likely.
- Defense, overall, is the million dollar question with this team. On one hand, last year’s two worst defenders (Parker and Ginobili) are no longer with the team, while Murray, Bertans and White playing more minutes should help the defense. Poeltl, too, should help more than hurt on defense, plus Forbes and Gay could be improved on D in their second full seasons in the system. On the other hand, DeRozan and Belinelli are both bad defenders, while the losses of Anderson and Green hurt on the defensive end.
-If I had guess, I think the Spurs will be okay on defense as long as Murray proves capable of playing 30-plus minutes, Aldridge doesn’t fall off a cliff, White plays and proves to be a solid defender, and Bertans’ defense holds up when given more responsibility. In that world, the Spurs could actually finish as a top 3-to-5 defensive team once again. That’s a lot of contingencies but I don’t think any of them are too outlandish.
-One twosome that doesn’t pass the eye test or the stats test is Mills and Forbes playing together in the backcourt. They just don’t have enough size, strength or length when paired together. (The team actually played really good defense when Forbes was on the court and Mills was off of it.) If Pop plays Mills, Forbes and Belinelli together as his three perimeter players off the bench, that could be disastrous defensively. Pop either needs to masterfully stagger the minutes or put one of those three into the starting lineup.
-All in all, the player pairs stats point to the Spurs quite possibly having successful season, with 50-plus wins being well within the realm of possibilities. If Murray grows, DeRozan alleviates the team’s offensive shortcomings, Aldridge stays upright, the role players perform adequately, and Pop pays attention and goes away from what’s not working (namely the Mills/Forbes combo . . . and possibly Gasol in totality), San Antonio should be fine.
https://i.imgur.com/D8MJfYD.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/67msUW5.jpg
-Our eyes said LaMarcus Aldridge carried the team last season. These player pairs statistics back that up. Every player did better with Aldridge on the court. While he was really good on defense, it was his offensive production that provided the most value. As you can see, every player saw a boost offensively when paired with Aldridge. Going forward, San Antonio just has to hope that the 33-year-old can play as well this year as he did last season.
-Dejounte Murray was the youngest player ever named to an All-Defense team. The numbers say he richly deserved that honor. It’s actually stunning how much of an impact Murray had on defense. It’s not an overstatement to say Murray’s defense was the best thing the Spurs had going last year. Every player outside of Ginobili turned into an elite defender when paired with Murray. The Spurs gave up 7.6 less points per 100 possessions with Murray on the court. To put that in perspective, that’s a larger margin than two-time Defensive Player of the Year Kawhi Leonard ever posted as a Spur. To find a Spurs perimeter player who made such a difference on defense, you’d probably have to go back to 2007 Bruce Bowen and San Antonio giving up 9.1 less points per 100 possessions he was on the court.
-Offense was a different story for Murray. The Spurs seemed to sputter with the young point running the show and these stats back up that observation. He will need to make a jump this coming season if he’s not to hurt the team offensively when he’s on the court. The good news, however, is that even with his anemic offensive showing last season, Murray’s defense more than made up for it. He actually tied Aldrige for the best overall mark on the team.
-Going by these numbers, Pop should definitely ride Murray as much as possible this coming season. He averaged 21 minutes per game last year. This year, at least early in the season in order to see if these trends will continue, Murray should be given 30-plus minutes. If the Spurs are going to surprise, it’s going to be because their 22-year-old point guard took another step forward. I’m hoping he’s at least given the shot.
-I wanted Manu Ginobili and/or Tony Parker to return for another year for sentimental, corporate knowledge and culture reasons. However, these player pairs numbers indicate that basketball-wise it was probably a good time to part ways, sadly enough. While Ginobili’s offensive genius remained valuable to the end, age had obviously robbed a lot of his athleticism as he graded out as by far the team’s worst defender. His defense was so bad that it overshadowed his offensive contributions. Parker, for his part, was detrimental on both sides of the court. Father time remains undefeated, unfortunately.
-My primary hesitation in the Spurs matching the Grizzlies four-year, $37.2 million offer to Kyle Anderson was his poor fit next to Murray. It’s difficult to thrive in today’s NBA with multiple players on the court who are hesitant to shoot. Murray and Anderson were just a bad fit next to each other – and these numbers emphasize that. They made each other worse on offense and I don’t think that was a solvable problem going forward. Anderson had a really solid season on both ends but wasn’t enough of a standout to invest that much money in when factoring in his poor fit next to Murray. The Spurs had to pick one and I’m glad they went with the younger one with the higher ceiling.
-Being able to bring back Davis Bertans made the Anderson departure easier to swallow. While Bertans wasn’t as good as Anderson last year, it was relatively close. Importantly, though, Bertans was fantastic when paired with both Aldridge and Murray. As is apparent, lineups with Aldridge at center and Bertans at power forward did really well. Bertans not only helped Murray on offense but they dominated defensively when on the court together. In retrospect, Bertans at two years and $14 million looks like a much better deal for the Spurs than what Anderson got from Memphis.
-Danny Green is another player I was sad to see go but these stats go along with the obvious observation that his peak is in his rearview mirror. His defense was still good but nothing too notable. His offensive impact was limited. Like Anderson, Green’s one-dimensional offensive repertoire appeared to be a bad fit on team built around Murray and these numbers agree.
-Looking forward, Bryn Forbes actually looks like a good fit. I’m sure his player pairs results are better than most Spurs fans would have expected. He plays good with Aldridge and it looks like he can thrive next to Murray (particularly defensively, which is surprising). It’s sacrilege to say but it can be argued that giving Forbes minutes this season is a better alternative than giving minutes to Green or Ginobili, especially when considering the fact that Forbes should be improved after what was essentially his rookie season.
-Patty Mills is who we thought he was: a spark plug on offense who doesn’t play much defense anymore. He does have quite a bit of value, which is good considering the amount of money left on his contract ($39 million over three years). Mills plays well with Aldridge; the offense flows well when they’re on the court at the same time and Aldridge helps Mills from being too much of a liability on defense. After looking at these player pairs stats, Pop starting Mills next to Murray last season made a lot of sense. The offense really improves when Mills is on the court with Murray and the defense doesn’t suffer an unreasonable amount.
-Rudy Gay has never been an advanced stats standout. In fact, it’s been quite the opposite over the course of his career. In his first season with the Spurs, Gay lived down to his reputation. While he helped the team a little bit on offense, his defense more than made up the difference in the wrong direction. All that said, I don’t think it was necessarily a mistake to re-sign him to a one-year, $10 million contract. Gay has a few things going for him: 1) He should be more comfortable with a year in the system under his belt. 2) He should be more confident health-wise. 3) The dynamics could change if the Spurs plan to start him at small forward this season rather than use him as a backup power forward.
-Pau Gasol is the anti-Mills. He graded out as the second best defensive player after Murray but is by far the worst offensive player. Unlike Mills, though, it’s not clear that Gasol brings enough value on his strong end to compensate for his weakness on the other end. Now 38 years old, Gasol is in danger of becoming a millstone tied around the starting lineup’s neck. For the Spurs to be successful, Pop has to keep a close eye on Gasol and be willing to pull the plug if the Hall of Famer’s career flatlines.
- I didn’t do player pairs for the Raptors but DeMar DeRozan would look a lot like Ginobili (great on offense, poor on defense), while Jakob Poeltl would probably have an equal amount of green and red on both offense and defense – so somewhat similar to Green.
-As you’d probably guess, Marco Belinelli was outstanding on offense and bad on offense during his previous stint with the Spurs. Like Ginobili (and DeRozan), he’d mostly be green on offense and mostly red on defense.
-In Derrick White’s limited playing time as a rookie, his defense graded out as being elite. But given the fact that he only played 139 minutes last season, we should take that with a couple grains of salt.
-With the disclaimer that player pairs are limited as a predictor due to the small sample sizes involved, the starting lineup that jumps off the sheet is Murray, Mills, DeRozan, Bertans and Aldridge with the bench fivesome being White, Forbes, Belinelli, Gay and Poeltl (or Gasol). That would give the starting unit and the bench unit a good mix of both offensive and defensive players. While the starters look small, if these player pairs numbers hold up, Murray, Bertans and Aldridge should be enough to hold up defensively. On offense, they could be really good, most likely.
- Defense, overall, is the million dollar question with this team. On one hand, last year’s two worst defenders (Parker and Ginobili) are no longer with the team, while Murray, Bertans and White playing more minutes should help the defense. Poeltl, too, should help more than hurt on defense, plus Forbes and Gay could be improved on D in their second full seasons in the system. On the other hand, DeRozan and Belinelli are both bad defenders, while the losses of Anderson and Green hurt on the defensive end.
-If I had guess, I think the Spurs will be okay on defense as long as Murray proves capable of playing 30-plus minutes, Aldridge doesn’t fall off a cliff, White plays and proves to be a solid defender, and Bertans’ defense holds up when given more responsibility. In that world, the Spurs could actually finish as a top 3-to-5 defensive team once again. That’s a lot of contingencies but I don’t think any of them are too outlandish.
-One twosome that doesn’t pass the eye test or the stats test is Mills and Forbes playing together in the backcourt. They just don’t have enough size, strength or length when paired together. (The team actually played really good defense when Forbes was on the court and Mills was off of it.) If Pop plays Mills, Forbes and Belinelli together as his three perimeter players off the bench, that could be disastrous defensively. Pop either needs to masterfully stagger the minutes or put one of those three into the starting lineup.
-All in all, the player pairs stats point to the Spurs quite possibly having successful season, with 50-plus wins being well within the realm of possibilities. If Murray grows, DeRozan alleviates the team’s offensive shortcomings, Aldridge stays upright, the role players perform adequately, and Pop pays attention and goes away from what’s not working (namely the Mills/Forbes combo . . . and possibly Gasol in totality), San Antonio should be fine.