Rummpd
11-04-2018, 05:51 AM
Buy or sell: The Spurs will win more games than the Rockets
Let's treat this as a two-part question:
▪
How good are the Spurs in the post-Kawhi Leonard era?
▪
How bad are the Rockets without Trevor Ariza?
http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/25164029/nba-buy-sell-san-antonio-spurs-win-more-games-houston-rockets
The Spurs averaged 64 wins per season with a plus-8.9 point-scoring differential when led by Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge in 2015-16 and 2016-17, then won 47 games with a plus-2.9 point differential last season with Leonard playing in only nine games. With coach Gregg Popovich and Aldridge as the incumbent leaders -- running tried-and-true Spurs game plans that emphasize strong role play outside of the primary options -- last season's 47 wins are likely the floor for their potential. How close can new addition DeMar DeRozan get them to their previous Kawhi-led ceiling?
Leonard was a legitimate MVP candidate, finishing top 5 in on-court impact according to real plus minus (RPM). DeRozan is not on that level, finishing a career-best 67th in RPM last season. However, DeRozan has developed into an elite offensive performer, able to create volume opportunities for himself while improving at creating looks for others off the dribble. DeRozan ranked 15th in offensive RPM (ORPM) last season, and he brings that much-needed offensive-creation ability to San Antonio, helping Aldridge anchor that side of the ball. The Spurs currently rank ninth in the NBA with an offensive rating of 111.9 points scored per 100 possessions, up from 107.9 (17th) last season.
Their defense is giving up 110.6 points per 100 possessions, 19th in the NBA and far off their usual impressive pace. DeRozan's weakness could be playing some part, but the Spurs have also lost a lot of defensive talent. They do still have Popovich, though, and will need him to scheme them into defensive improvements for the team to succeed.
The Spurs have won five of their first seven games during the DeRozan/Aldridge era. While DeRozan likely helps them surpass last season's 47 wins by a bit, their ceiling is probably closer to 55 wins than the high-water marks under Leonard.
Meanwhile, the Rockets have lost five of their first seven games this season, including four by double figures, causing early alarm and speculation of real decline. They did lose two solid defensive role players from their forward unit, Ariza and Luc Mbah a Moute, this offseason, but they returned the primary core players of the team that won 65 games with a plus-8.5 scoring margin last season.
So why the incredibly slow start? I do acknowledge some growing pains as they integrate Carmelo Anthony into slots formerly held by 3-and-D role players, but I cite the primary culprits as suspension (to Chris Paul) and injury (to James Harden). Paul and Harden only have played 39 minutes together this season, a bad opening loss to the then-surging New Orleans Pelicans and a win over the Los Angeles Lakers. Paul was suspended for the following two games and Harden injured his hamstring in the second of those contests.
If Rockets continue to lose when Harden returns, then this becomes a real thing. Until then, I expect them to come out of their tailspin and start to resemble their team from last season. While Houston has been a bottom-10 offense, Second Spectrum's shot quality data suggests Houston will return to a top-10 scoring attack in time. The defense has been ugly, but there's still time for the team to get itself together on that end.
This is a soft sell, with the Spurs likely to win in the low 50s of games, while the Rockets likely settle in as an upper-50s win team.
Still a good season but hoping prediction is wrong.
Let's treat this as a two-part question:
▪
How good are the Spurs in the post-Kawhi Leonard era?
▪
How bad are the Rockets without Trevor Ariza?
http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/25164029/nba-buy-sell-san-antonio-spurs-win-more-games-houston-rockets
The Spurs averaged 64 wins per season with a plus-8.9 point-scoring differential when led by Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge in 2015-16 and 2016-17, then won 47 games with a plus-2.9 point differential last season with Leonard playing in only nine games. With coach Gregg Popovich and Aldridge as the incumbent leaders -- running tried-and-true Spurs game plans that emphasize strong role play outside of the primary options -- last season's 47 wins are likely the floor for their potential. How close can new addition DeMar DeRozan get them to their previous Kawhi-led ceiling?
Leonard was a legitimate MVP candidate, finishing top 5 in on-court impact according to real plus minus (RPM). DeRozan is not on that level, finishing a career-best 67th in RPM last season. However, DeRozan has developed into an elite offensive performer, able to create volume opportunities for himself while improving at creating looks for others off the dribble. DeRozan ranked 15th in offensive RPM (ORPM) last season, and he brings that much-needed offensive-creation ability to San Antonio, helping Aldridge anchor that side of the ball. The Spurs currently rank ninth in the NBA with an offensive rating of 111.9 points scored per 100 possessions, up from 107.9 (17th) last season.
Their defense is giving up 110.6 points per 100 possessions, 19th in the NBA and far off their usual impressive pace. DeRozan's weakness could be playing some part, but the Spurs have also lost a lot of defensive talent. They do still have Popovich, though, and will need him to scheme them into defensive improvements for the team to succeed.
The Spurs have won five of their first seven games during the DeRozan/Aldridge era. While DeRozan likely helps them surpass last season's 47 wins by a bit, their ceiling is probably closer to 55 wins than the high-water marks under Leonard.
Meanwhile, the Rockets have lost five of their first seven games this season, including four by double figures, causing early alarm and speculation of real decline. They did lose two solid defensive role players from their forward unit, Ariza and Luc Mbah a Moute, this offseason, but they returned the primary core players of the team that won 65 games with a plus-8.5 scoring margin last season.
So why the incredibly slow start? I do acknowledge some growing pains as they integrate Carmelo Anthony into slots formerly held by 3-and-D role players, but I cite the primary culprits as suspension (to Chris Paul) and injury (to James Harden). Paul and Harden only have played 39 minutes together this season, a bad opening loss to the then-surging New Orleans Pelicans and a win over the Los Angeles Lakers. Paul was suspended for the following two games and Harden injured his hamstring in the second of those contests.
If Rockets continue to lose when Harden returns, then this becomes a real thing. Until then, I expect them to come out of their tailspin and start to resemble their team from last season. While Houston has been a bottom-10 offense, Second Spectrum's shot quality data suggests Houston will return to a top-10 scoring attack in time. The defense has been ugly, but there's still time for the team to get itself together on that end.
This is a soft sell, with the Spurs likely to win in the low 50s of games, while the Rockets likely settle in as an upper-50s win team.
Still a good season but hoping prediction is wrong.