Friday Jan 11th game picks

[Fabbs]

I am travelling again to Caliente ville and would like to tap into the vast and what I have seen so far highly intelligent and successful brain trust of SpursTalk game forecasters.

JokicParty
Trainwreck2100
Spurtacular

and the thus far silent for inexplicable reasons HarlemHeat.

I'm loving the 4% only surcharge and since it's in Mex the rest is all profit.

If you guys know of some off the charts safe online site I am all ears.

[Fabbs]

Home teams on bottom
Atlanta
Philadelphia

Milwaukee
Washington

Indiana
New York

Brooklyn
Toronto

Cleveland
Houston

Dallas
Minnesota

Los Angeles
Utah

Charlotte
Portland

Chicago
Golden State

[Fabbs]

If you guys have some absolute locks prior to Friday, I could make a trip down. But limited time. Plus I don't think the lines come out until (36 hours at best?) in advance?


LOL Chicago at Golden Flame. What will the line be on that? Although this 2018-19 version of the Warriors has lots of cracks.

[DAF86]

Home teams on bottom
Atlanta
Philadelphia

Milwaukee
Washington

Indiana
New York

Brooklyn
Toronto

Cleveland
Houston

Dallas
Minnesota

Los Angeles
Utah

Charlotte
Portland

Chicago
Golden State

Sixers

Bucks

Pacers

Raptors

Rockets

Mavs

Jazz

Blazers

Warriors

[Fabbs]

Ralphie pic "I can list the favorites"

[DAF86]

Those aren't the favourites son. Those are the teams that will win. I come from the future.

[Fabbs]

Those aren't the favourites son. Those are the teams that will win. I come from the future.
Really name one game you picked that was not a favorite.

FOH men are working.

[DAF86]

Really name one game you picked that was not a favorite.

FOH men are working.

Mavs over Wolves?

Besides, did you want hot picks or correct ones?

[JokicParty]

Without knowing which teams will be on the 2nd half of a back to back, I would set the lines as follows:

Philly -13.5
Milwaukee -6
Indiana -5 (The real line may be a couple points lower than this, in which case the Pacers are a good play)
Toronto -7 (will be higher if Raps are healthy, Nets are hard to blow out so they are a team with value)
Houston -12.5
Minnesota -4
Jazz (-5.5 if hosting LAC, -11.5 if hosting LAL)
Portland -7
Warriors -16

I would advise pounding the Nets & Jazz and fading the Magic going forward. People treat Orlando like they are a slightly below average team when in reality they are closer to Hawks level than Mavs or Nets.

[Fabbs]

Without knowing which teams will be on the 2nd half of a back to back,
None of the teams on Friday night are on a B2B.

Fri night some will be on the 1st half of a B2B.

Fri/Sat
Dallas @ MN
New Orleans @ MN

Lakers at Utah
Bulls at Utah


Bulls @ Golden Flamers
Bulls @ Utah (both teams on 2nd night of B2B.) Wow for the straight up win put the house on Utah? Are the Bulls officially in tank mode yet?

[JokicParty]

Not quite, they are still generally trying to win for unknown reasons.

[Spurtacular]

For 1/11

* Philly should beat Atl by double digits even though Hawks have been a little stronger of late. Twenty percent chance Atl makes a game of it.
* Milwaukee by 5 over Wash; though Wiz been getting their act together and at home. I don't trust Milwaukee on road against teams like this, though.
* Knicks been playing better but still hard to bet on them. I think Pacers by a few points maybe more.
* Nets been solid and Tor been wobbly. If I was looking at a good plus spread for Nets, I'd be tempted. But Tor should win.
* Rockets should beat Cavs by about 15 or more. Spread will probably be 13.5.
* Mavs been sucking but T-Wolves getting new coach. I'd see how they're playing with the new coach and take em at home if looking good.
* Hornets give teams of their ilk a good run; but Blazers looking to get on a streak at home after beating the knicks following really tough opponents at home.
* Jazz will kill the Lakers at home if no Bron.
* Warriors will tee off on the Bulls.

[Spurtacular]

Would've love to 've been in Vegas last night. I would've got them all except for possibly LAL/DAL. Though DAL has been sucking, and I'd like to think I would've stayed away from that one.

[Fabbs]

* Jazz will kill the Lakers at home if no Bron.
* Warriors will tee off on the Bulls.
Yes but how can last nights Lakers by 20 over the Mavs be explained?
Warriors winning no question. What will the spread be we shall see.

Don't you guys ever bet a ton on the win only games? I mean granted only 10-20% payoff but when it's automatic.....

[Spurtacular]

Yes but how can last nights Lakers by 20 over the Mavs be explained?
Warriors winning no question. What will the spread be we shall see.


Mavs been in a funk after going hot. Good matchups maybe, too. Bron-less Lakers are meat for a team like Utah at home. Utah way better than Dallas despite the comparable records; they just had a slow start to their season.

Anything 15 or less, take the Warriors; but honestly, there's always a chance a real game could break out when the spreads get that big.

[Spurtacular]

Don't you guys ever bet a ton on the win only games? I mean granted only 10-20% payoff but when it's automatic.....

If I lived full time in Nevada, I would do that and have a cumulative strategy. But as a visitor looking for hit more excitement of the hit or miss, that's how I do it. Frankly, because of that I'm more inclined to look for the big pluses that I think are too generous; like if I see a +250 or a +325 and I think a team has a 30 or 40 percent chance of winning.

If you're looking for sound money strategy, do straight-up bets. And if you have to parlay don't go above two games or small money on a three or more team parlay. Anything above two I usually have one team inevitably f*ck it up. Though I know one guy who is putting ten to fifty bucks on a four or five team parlay each day, and he must win enough of them to keep doing it. But if it's a one time deal, someone's gonna f*ck it up for you and you're gonna wish you went straight. :lol

[Spurtacular]

* Knicks been playing better but still hard to bet on them. I think Pacers by a few points maybe more.


Gonna revise this. Knicks been solid for a few games now (even on the road); and I don't trust Indy very much, especially on the road. It's a game I'd avoid, honestly.

[Trainwreck2100]

I am travelling again to Caliente ville and would like to tap into the vast and what I have seen so far highly intelligent and successful brain trust of SpursTalk game forecasters.

JokicParty
Trainwreck2100
Spurtacular

and the thus far silent for inexplicable reasons HarlemHeat.

I'm loving the 4% only surcharge and since it's in Mex the rest is all profit.

If you guys know of some off the charts safe online site I am all ears.

Just so you know you don't bold someone's name to get their attenting you put @ in front of it, as for my picks I'll decide when i see the lines

[MultiTroll]

If you're looking for sound money strategy, do straight-up bets. And if you have to parlay don't go above two games or small money on a three or more team parlay. Anything above two I usually have one team inevitably f*ck it up. :lol
Yes for here and now just looking for sound money. Like locks. You know, 90% or better. Like final reg season NFL Pats vs Bills, Good Team vs tanking Raiders. Those two were "locks" and I parlayed.
Ya I know wagering with points included makes the payoff so much better. But for now just keep hitting me with the locks, esp for Friday and Sat night. If the locks look like locks with points too, I'll jump. As for tonight Tuesday night, wow.....will continiue on the Tues night thread if you can meet me up there.

[Spurtacular]

Atl with another strong result on the road. I think that spread is going down some for the Philly game, which could be good for taking Philly.

[JokicParty]

Yes but how can last nights Lakers by 20 over the Mavs be explained?
Warriors winning no question. What will the spread be we shall see.

Don't you guys ever bet a ton on the win only games? I mean granted only 10-20% payoff but when it's automatic.....

Utah is the real deal, apart from a couple of early WTF losses to Memphis at home. They are much better than a LeBron-less Lakers team.

[Fabbs]

Utah is the real deal, apart from a couple of early WTF losses to Memphis at home. They are much better than a LeBron-less Lakers team.
Still focusing on Friday.
However for today, Wed, Johhny has not put up the games yet.
I am looking at Wednesdays lines. Looks pretty brutal as far as any spread locks.


Cleveland seems like a solid tank job. But they are +14 at New Orleans.

[JokicParty]

Still focusing on Friday.
However for today, Wed, Johhny has not put up the games yet.
I am looking at Wednesdays lines. Looks pretty brutal as far as any spread locks.


Cleveland seems like a solid tank job. But they are +14 at New Orleans.

Nothing great today, Utah -8 was pretty good but it already rose to -9. Still probably the right play but some value was lost there.

[Fabbs]

Mavs been in a funk after going hot. Good matchups maybe, too. Bron-less Lakers are meat for a team like Utah at home. Utah way better than Dallas despite the comparable records; they just had a slow start to their season.


I would advise pounding the Nets & Jazz and fading the Magic going forward.


Utah is the real deal, apart from a couple of early WTF losses to Memphis at home. They are much better than a LeBron-less Lakers team.
Talking Friday here. For now strictly on this one game, Lakers at Jazz what do you 2 now think? I'm not liking the Jazz as a lock with the recent skitzy play by the Lakers. Thoughts?

[Fabbs]

^ Straight up(s). Are you guys seeing this as the lock of the night order?

1. Warriors host Bulls
2. Houston hosting Cleveland
3. Philly hosting ATL

Spurtacular I am hearing you on the only-do-two-on-a-parlay if going for sure money. But how are you liking the order of these three straight up?

[JokicParty]

Jazz are way, way better than the Pistons. If anything, Lakers homers will come out of the woodwork and bet their team to deflate Friday's line, giving the Jazz even more value.

That order looks correct.

[Fabbs]

Jazz are way, way better than the Pistons. If anything, Lakers homers will come out of the woodwork and bet their team to deflate Friday's line, giving the Jazz even more value.

That order looks correct.
Rookie Q. Lets say the Warriors are -280. Place 280 to win 100, got it.
Lets say the Rockets are also -280. Same deal, place 280 to win 100.

But if one parlays that, betting the same 280 on each game as a parlay how much does one win?

[Spurtacular]

Talking Friday here. For now strictly on this one game, Lakers at Jazz what do you 2 now think? I'm not liking the Jazz as a lock with the recent skitzy play by the Lakers. Thoughts?

Lakers b2b w/o Bron on the road are meat. All's they've done is move the spread in your favor.

[Fabbs]

Lakers b2b w/o Bron on the road are meat. All's they've done is move the spread in your favor.

Ok Spurtacular, where do you place it with the other 3 near sure wins playing straight up for the win, no points spread?
I wanna follow your advice and just parlay 2 total. Or is this one of those rare days where a 3 parlay is also rock solid?

1. Warriors host Bulls
2. Houston hosting Cleveland
3. Philly hosting ATL

Lakers at Utah?

[Spurtacular]

Ok Spurtacular, where do you place it with the other 3 near sure wins playing straight up for the win, no points spread?
I wanna follow your advice and just parlay 2 total. Or is this one of those rare days where a 3 parlay is also rock solid?

1. Warriors host Bulls
2. Houston hosting Cleveland
3. Philly hosting ATL

Lakers at Utah?

Above Philly/Houston for ML. If we're talking spreads, it could be the biggest blowout of the four.

[Trainwreck2100]

With Spread
Bucks
Pacers
Wolves
Bonus
Nets cover but lose with caveat of me possibly being blinded by hatred of nephew

[Spurtacular]

Above Philly/Houston for ML. If we're talking spreads, it could be the biggest blowout of the four.

Hou/Cle should be biggest blowout though. Bulls could play for three quarters or be blown out from the start. Lakers have a chance at making a game of it; but I don't expect it so much.

[JokicParty]

Without knowing which teams will be on the 2nd half of a back to back, I would set the lines as follows:

Philly -13.5
Milwaukee -6
Indiana -5 (The real line may be a couple points lower than this, in which case the Pacers are a good play)
Toronto -7 (will be higher if Raps are healthy, Nets are hard to blow out so they are a team with value)
Houston -12.5
Minnesota -4
Jazz (-5.5 if hosting LAC, -11.5 if hosting LAL)
Portland -7
Warriors -16



Pretty close on these. The Raptors are indeed healthy sans JV so the spread is a couple points higher than it would have been several days ago. I like the Nets at +9.5.

Lakers drilling an awful harpie team in Detroit artificially lowered their spread vs. Utah. -8.5 is great value.

The one spread I was way off on was Indiana. Was hoping for a smaller line to take the Pacers (Knicks first game back from a brutal road trip) but 8.5 is a lot for a borderline top 10 team to cover on the road. I wouldn't bet this NY team under any circumstances though.

[MultiTroll]

Above Philly/Houston for ML. If we're talking spreads, it could be the biggest blowout of the four.
Straight up you like Philly and Hou to be more of a lock then GS vs Bulls?

[MultiTroll]

With Spread
Bucks why high on Bucks covering? Don't they suck on road / Wizards are actually decent at home?

[Trainwreck2100]

why high on Bucks covering? Don't they suck on road / Wizards are actually decent at home?

That last Wiz win over the 6ers may have been impressive, but the Bucks beating a decently hot Rockets team is equally impressive, the Spreads only 3 and I see the Bucks winning this outright. Also the Bucks have the same number of losses on the road as the Wiz do at home.

[MultiTroll]

Nets at +9.5.

Utah. -8.5 is great value.

Are you feeling "locky" on these two or would you characterize it more like, solid value but wouldn't go as far as "Locks"?

[JokicParty]

Are you feeling "locky" on these two or would you characterize it more like, solid value but wouldn't go as far as "Locks"?

Utah dropped to -8 due to dumbshit t-shirt Laker fans wasting their parents money. Nothing is a lock in betting, but I am as confident in this as any bet all year.

Nets are not a lock but definitely a recommended play.

[Spurtacular]

Straight up you like Philly and Hou to be more of a lock then GS vs Bulls?

Houston been playing much better than GS of late. But the Bulls are ultimately too shitty. I'd have to say GS is better; but the odds are longer I'm sure.

[Spurtacular]

GS -1600
Hou -1300

So, betting $100 for $14.42? You should get it; but it's not that worth it, tbh.

[JokicParty]

Picking Utah was easy as hell. Props to Toronto - I did not expect them to dominate, but they did.

[MultiTroll]

Picking Utah was easy as hell. Props to Toronto - I did not expect them to dominate, but they did.
Got it, muchos gracias.

Next night Jazz vs Bulls. What-the-hell-was-that?
Utah throwing the spread? Bolt out to a 10 point 1st qtr lead. I picked the 1st half too so thought this is great.
2nd qtr the Bulls outscore them by 12. :rolleyes
Covering the spread (-11) at 105-92 with only 2 minutes to go they go on to have three turnovers in a row. Including a *lost ball out of bounds* and a *travelling*. Plus foul the Bulls twice for FTs. Jazz players in on the bet?

Switching to college. Virginia has been gold.