Chasing The Playoffs v2 - 2019 Magic Numbers

[Dex]

With about five weeks and 18 games left on the slate, the Spurs once again find themselves in the unenviable position of scrapping for a playoff spot.

For more than two decades, the Spurs being in the playoffs was synonymous with death and taxes. Those days seem like a distant memory now, and Tim Duncan ain't walkin' through that door anymore.

Similar to last season, there are around eight teams bunched together in the middle of the Western Conference standings and setting the stage for a Battle Royale over the last four playoff spots. Mathematically, the only team that has been eliminated from playoff contention is the Phoenix Suns (:lol).

Last year, the Spurs did not clinch a playoff berth until April 9th (or their 81st game of the season)...and this year does not look to be shaping up much different. Technically, the Spurs only control their destiny against six teams, but with the way this season has gone, it's safe to say that they are going to need all the help they can get.

At this juncture, there is a distinct possibility that we could see a Silver & Black-less playoffs for the first time in 22 years.

Without further ado, I present...the Spurs 2018-2019 Magic Numbers:

https://i.imgur.com/kUghX1i.png

Some thoughts:

-Technically, the Spurs are still not out of reach of the #1 seed...but that's about as likely as Manu's hair growing back. They just need the Warriors and Nuggets to both go on 19-game losing streaks while the Spurs play .800 basketball.

-Currently, only 4.5 games separate 3rd-8th place in the Western Conference, so you'd need a Magic 8-Ball to try to determine positioning at this point.

-Realistically, there will probably only be four teams in the dog-fight for 6th-8th place: the Spurs, Jazz, Clippers, and Kings. Only five games currently separate these teams in the standings, and I anticipate a lot of flip-flopping in position over the next five weeks. The Kings are currently only three games back from stealing a playoff spot.

-On the dark-horse list, you have the Lakers, Timberwolves, Mavericks, and Pelicans. The Lakers are still right on the heels of Sacramento and only nine games currently separate 6th place from 14th, so all of these teams are still theoretically in the hunt. However, they all currently sit just a little too far out to be considered to be looking directly in.

-Fortunately for the Spurs, several teams in the hunt have all stumbled in recent weeks. Lebron's Lakers are 4-9 since he tried to trade half the team to New Orleans (and 1-4 since he declared he had "activated playoff mode"). Meanwhile, the Kings (4-6), Timberwolves (4-6), Mavericks (3-7), and Grizzlies (3-7) have all hit mini-skids of their own over their last 10.

-Unfortunately for the Spurs, they also decided to take a bath in the crapper during the Rodeo Road Trip and are only 3-7 over that same period. The only way they could've stunk things up worse was if they had just stayed in the stables at the AT&T Center. Had the Spurs won half their games during their yearly voyage, they would be sitting comfortably in 4th or 5th place right now.

-If the Spurs really hope to punch their ticket to the big dance again, they need to go at least 10-8 in this home stretch...and that would still require considerable help from the rest of the pack. If they stumble and hit another 3-4 game losing skid, that could easily let in one of the dark horse teams and spell doom for their hopes of continuing their historic playoff streak.

This week in review:

March 4th - DEN @ SAS - The Spurs thankfully seem to have regained some footing back in the sanctuary of the AT&T Center, and are coming off an impressive showing against a PG-less Thunder team. If you had asked me a week ago, I'd say splitting the pair between OKC and DEN could be considered a moral victory, but frankly...we need actual Ws wherever we can get them. A win would count for two Magic Numbers against the Nuggets, but considering how far ahead they are in the standings, this one is mostly just about avoiding a loss.

March 6th - SAS @ ATL - The fledgling Hawks have actually picked up some momentum as of late and seem keen on playing the part of late-season spoiler. Still, at 20 games under .500, there is no excuse to lose to this lottery team. These are the "easy" victories that the Spurs desperately have to secure if they want to stay in the race, and they will need to show that they can come to play on the road to do so.

March 10th - MIL @ SAS - The Spurs actually played the Bucks pretty tough during their last contest in Milwaukee. In fact, they held a 10-point lead and had a whopping 91.0% probability to win with 7 minutes left despite a big night from Giannis. Sadly, that's when the train went off the rails. Hopefully they can put the same level of tenacity on display, and the energy of the home crowd will be able to get them over the hump this time.

[Dex]

For reference, a green TieBreaker means that the Spurs have already won the tiebreaker. A red TieBreaker means that the Spurs have already lost the tiebreaker. Unmarked TieBreakers mean it is still to be determined.

A green Magic Number means the Spurs have secured that magic number.

[RodNIc91]

Thanks man, I appreciate the work you put into this :toast

[Kobe'sAchilles]

I rather not make the playoffs than lose 3 years in a row to the faggoty warriors tbh

[Dex]

I rather not make the playoffs than lose 3 years in a row to the faggoty warriors tbh

https://media1.tenor.com/images/70fe1b41720bd2e2560f836c8bf3364b/tenor.gif?itemid=10470601

[timtonymanu]

I rather not make the playoffs than lose 3 years in a row to the faggoty warriors tbh

[Spurch]

Great work Dex, with 18 games remaining I think we are in a much better position than last season as we more games at home and we are better there somewhere around 3rd in the league and playing 8 teams below.500, so we should be in the playoffs around the 6-8 spot maybe it's better to play Denver or okc the matchups would be better.

[RD2191]

I rather not make the playoffs than lose 3 years in a row to the faggoty warriors tbh

[therealtruth]

It's all about strength of schedule. So Spurs have a pretty good chance and the Jazz are pretty much a lock and can probably even get home court.

[gambit1990]

I rather not make the playoffs than lose 3 years in a row to the faggoty warriors tbh
and they won’t just be losses, they’ll be blowouts...

[anon]

It's a race between Pop and Doc on who wants to get eliminated by Denver more. The Clips are poised for two max contracts in the summer plus their promising rookie Gilgeous-Alexander; making the postseason seems only a bonus in terms of extended visibility that a free agent could take notice. Meanwhile, y'all know where the Spurs are with their aging all-star (familiar story), an irritable co-star and a dearth of serviceable wings struggling for pride of place to get out of the Warriors' bracket.

[TDomination]

so far so good!

[TDomination]

i don't know who i'd rather win, lakers or clippers?

[TDomination]

I rather not make the playoffs than lose 3 years in a row to the faggoty warriors tbh
i hope we do make it but play nuggets. if not, well then it would be the warriors and yeah we aint winning nothing there.

[Ditty]

It sucks that we are in the playoff race for the 7th or 8th seed. Too bad the Lakers suck balls and are the joke of the NBA.

[skin27]

We need a 6 or 7 game winning streak because the clippers ain’t loosing too


apura should avoid the 8th spot

[JPB]

Coming back ApuraTalk, they agree there.

[TDomination]

Great thread!
I think as long as we can stay healthy we will make it. Not sure what seed but well be in the playoffs.

[cd021]

It's a race between Pop and Doc on who wants to get eliminated by Denver more. The Clips are poised for two max contracts in the summer plus their promising rookie Gilgeous-Alexander; making the postseason seems only a bonus in terms of extended visibility that a free agent could take notice. Meanwhile, y'all know where the Spurs are with their aging all-star (familiar story), an irritable co-star and a dearth of serviceable wings struggling for pride of place to get out of the Warriors' bracket.

I've said this for a while but I think the Spurs have a good chance of beating Denver in the 2-7 series. Not like they are world beater's.

[phxspurfan]

and they won’t just be losses, they’ll be blowouts...

Maybe we can injure some of their stars

[RC_Drunkford]

best case scenario is Spurs get the 7th seed and play the Nuggets. Then get OKC in the 2nd round if they make it. That would be 2 winnable series where Aldridge can go off

[cjw]

Spurs are one up in loss column on Clippers in conference record. That could determine the 7-8 seed. Have to make up 3 games on the Jazz because of no H2H tiebreaker, so 6 seed will be tough.

Lost tiebreak to Kings too, so will need to keep an eye on them. They have some easy games coming up (Bos, @NY, @Was, @Bos, @Phi, Chi, Brk, Dal, Phx, @LAL, @Dal, @NO, @Hou, @SA, Hou, Cle, @Uta, NO, @Por).

That game against the Spurs is a BTB for them so Pop better be circling that as a must win.


...

The Lakers need the Spurs to lose 6 more games than them the rest of the way to pass them, while they themselves have:

- Denver & Boston at home
- Five on the road including Toronto and Milwaukee (plus three they have to win in NY, Detroit on the 2NBTB & Chicago)
- Brooklyn, Sacramento, & Washington at home
- Utah on the road on the 2NBTB
- Charlotte at home (could make playoffs, though could be out by then)
- New Orleans on road ... how fitting would it be for them to keep Lebron out of playoffs
- Thunder on road
- Warriors at home
- Clippers technically a road game
- Utah and Portland to finish year out at home

Only four games against non-contending teams (NY, Chi, Was, NO) the rest are either tough or against teams fighting for playoffs.

The Spurs won’t lose 6 more based on that schedule. I think their best case is an 8 seed, and they HAVE to win that Clippers game or else they’ll lose that tiebreaker too and have to make up 7 games on them.

The Kings can’t outright win tiebreaker over Lakers and based on crappy conference record will probably lose it.

[Dex]

https://i.imgur.com/oGAKVlv.png

Yesterday was mostly a win for San Antonio.

The Spurs won, giving them two up on Denver as well as giving them the lead in the H2H record.

Dallas, Utah, and the Lakers also lost. I would've rather seen losses by New Orleans and the Clippers in those respective contests since they are in our realm of the standings, but I guess we will take what we can get.

Tonight, the Spurs are guaranteed further help as Memphis plays Portland and the Thunder match up against the Timberwolves.

The Rockets also have a tough game against Toronto. As much as I hate rooting for Nephew, a few losses for Houston could really help us close the gap in the loss column.

[Dverde]

I am sad to say that I am terrified of the Hawks in Atlanta. Spurs need to show up and get that W.

[TDomination]

I am sad to say that I am terrified of the Hawks in Atlanta. Spurs need to show up and get that W.
Trust me, we all feel that way. Everyone needs to play and no looking past them. This is a must win for this team.
Having White there makes me a feel a little better but still, this team just has the weirdest tendency to take a "bad" team lightly but the get blown out by them.

[slick'81]

Trust me, we all feel that way. Everyone needs to play and no looking past them. This is a must win for this team.
Having White there makes me a feel a little better but still, this team just has the weirdest tendency to take a "bad" team lightly but the get blown out by them.


Dont forget pau is gone and poodle power is running wild

[ceperez]

Clippers look to have a tougher schedule than the Spurs. Spurs should make it at #7.

Clippers have motivation to tank, they got a draft pick on the line.

[slick'81]

Clippers look to have a tougher schedule than the Spurs. Spurs should make it at #7.

Clippers have motivation to tank, they got a draft pick on the line.

clippers arent tanking

[KDKSpurs24]

clippers arent tanking
And I thought everyone knew that by now.

[BillMc]

Nice work OP:flag:

[GreekSpursfan]

Very good work op but i never hated a team before more than the current Warriors(ok i lied, the Kobe lakers take the No1 spot) so if we end up as the 8th seed we'd better not make it at all.

[YGWHI]

https://i.imgur.com/oGAKVlv.png
Love these graphics. Great work! Thanks! :tu


Tonight, the Spurs are guaranteed further help as Memphis plays Portland and the Thunder match up against the Timberwolves.
Portland and OKC lost.

[Ed Helicopter Jones]

What makes this season especially frustrating are the games the Spurs gave away and their 3 gear downshift on the road. They play like two completely different teams home and away.

They very easily should be around the 3 seed right now had they played better in some of their easier games. The Spurs have the worst record against the east of any western playoff team by far. Now we’re fight for that last playoff spot....again.

[monty4329]

I am sad to say that I am terrified of the Hawks in Atlanta. Spurs need to show up and get that W.

Sadly, it will probably be a blowout for Atlanta

[Dex]

Spurs win.

Lakers lose.

Kings lose.

Mavericks lose.

Timberwolves lose.

Pelicans lose.

Now that's what I call a...
http://www.quickmeme.com/img/ac/ac449c4293b246b8662ddd0627279fcdaebe2c0d420f883811 8235a81f47edc0.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/Hnh017y.png

Tonight the Thunder face the Blazers, so that will put another ding in the large gap against one of them.

[Ed Helicopter Jones]

Spurs win.

Lakers lose.

Kings lose.

Mavericks lose.

Timberwolves lose.

Pelicans lose.

Now that's what I call a...
http://www.quickmeme.com/img/ac/ac449c4293b246b8662ddd0627279fcdaebe2c0d420f883811 8235a81f47edc0.jpg


Tonight the Thunder face the Blazers, so that will put another ding in the large gap against one of them.

Yeah, last night was great for the Spurs. Weird to see SA within 3 games of the 3 seed. Hopefully they can keep widening that gap with the Kings...amazing how close the Kings have been to winning a lot of these games. Reminds me of last year's Denver squad...a bright future for that group if they carry that core into next year.

[Dex]

1103772044402012161

LeTank is in full effect.

[ZeusWillJudge]

LeTank is in full effect.

LOL! Operation "Get the Lakers in the Playoffs" is going to have to kick things up a notch.

[GusT15]

LOL! Operation "Get the Lakers in the Playoffs" is going to have to kick things up a notch.

It's "Operation:David Silver tries to find ways to get Lakers ZION" right now.

[Seventyniner]

LeTank is in full effect.

That and the fact that he passed MJ on the scoring list. Nothing more to play for this season.

[ZeusWillJudge]

Tonight the Thunder face the Blazers, so that will put another ding in the large gap against one of them.


Well the refs jobbed Portland, in Portland. Lillard went full-on black hole mode in OT, but it never should have gotten there.

Paul George threw an intentional elbow behind him and levelled Nurkic. I remember Kevin Willis being suspended for a game for the exact same thing. No call or review of George. The next play, Nurkic got fouled and George is taunting him, and Nurkic wound up getting himself ejected. That sequence cost Portland a 4 point swing, plus their starting C for the rest of regulation and OT.


OKC is a good team, but they're a lot better when they get help from the damn refs.

[Rusty]

All that work just to get swept by the Dubs again:lol

This might just send Popovich to retirement

[SpurPadre]

All that work just to get swept by the Dubs again:lol

This might just send Popovich to retirement

We didn't get swept by the Dubs last year, tbh.

[SpurPadre]

Just noticed TP is in danger of missing the playoffs for the first time in his career. I hope he makes it, tbh.

[YGWHI]

I've said it before...I like our chances vs Denver. Really like it.

Spurs need that #7 seed.

[YGWHI]

OKC is a good team, but they're a lot better when they get help from the damn refs.
Also, media support them. When someone tries try to question that PG play or the refs in the games, ESPN clows said today "it's a man-game" WTF!

[Dex]

I've said it before...I like our chances vs Denver. Really like it.

Spurs need that #7 seed.

Denver isn't totally out of the 1 seed either.

Still a long ways to go to see how things shake out.

[Collins21]

Also, media support them. When someone tries try to question that PG play or the refs in the games, ESPN clows said today "it's a man-game" WTF!

Yeah they really suck OKC off that team would be a good match with the Spurs if the refs called the game evenly but that never happens against OKC.

[skin27]

I've said it before...I like our chances vs Denver. Really like it.

Spurs need that #7 seed.

warriors can still drop to 2nd seed..Kerr will rest his starters at end of regular season

[BackHome]

It’s easier to attract big names if your team makes the playoffs. Big free agents want the money but they also want
to win. No one going to Chicago my poor city :pctoss

[SpurPadre]

warriors can still drop to 2nd seed..Kerr will rest his starters at end of regular season

Fine line between getting butt-fucked by the Dubs and having a competitive series vs. the Nuggets (where we will be extremely hard-pressed to win a game in Denver but with a good opportunity of winning all 3 home games, tbh.)

[YGWHI]

Denver isn't totally out of the 1 seed either.

Still a long ways to go to see how things shake out.


warriors can still drop to 2nd seed..Kerr will rest his starters at end of regular season

Ok. Reformulating...I just want the Spurs get the seed that allows them to play one of Denver/Blazers/OKC in first round.

For whatever reason we match so well vs them.

[YGWHI]

Yeah they really suck OKC off that team would be a good match with the Spurs if the refs called the game evenly but that never happens against OKC.
We won games vs them this season. Granted ThundeRefs is a big deal in playoffs but if DeRozan can find his game/LMA can co-exist with other volumen scorers/White keeps his level...I would love that series. Spurs in 6.

[rascal]

What makes this season especially frustrating are the games the Spurs gave away and their 3 gear downshift on the road. They play like two completely different teams home and away.

They very easily should be around the 3 seed right now had they played better in some of their easier games. The Spurs have the worst record against the east of any western playoff team by far. Now we’re fight for that last playoff spot....again.

The Spurs are 4-1 in 1 point games so those games could have gone either way too. So the Spurs have won some they could have easily lost too.

[cpds421]

It would be lovely if somehow the Spurs upset the Rockets in the first round. That probably would make D’antoni to quit coaching.

[Dex]

After a big win against the league's top team in both record and defense, the Spurs are riding a 5-game winning streak and suddenly, the bottom end of the Magic Numbers list is looking much more manageable.

The Spurs are now tied with the Jazz and Clippers for 6th place (game-wise), and the Kings have fallen to four games behind the pack. Despite playing well recently, Sacramento still hasn't been able to make up much ground...a few more losses could send them into a tailspin that would all but cement the top 8 teams.

Re-arranged to reflect current standings:
https://i.imgur.com/p6FvTt2.png

Upcoming games this week:

March 12th - SAS @ DAL - Considering this game could be worth up to 3 magic numbers, a win here would essentially be a knock-out blow in the Magic Number column for the Mavericks. However, going into Dallas and getting a victory has always been a challenge for the Spurs regardless of who lines up against them. The Spurs have won the first two matchups this season but only by a combined nine points, so they should not get too complacent with the Mavericks' shoddy record if they want to keep their win streak running.

March 15th - NYK @ SAS - With the New York's annual victory against the Spurs already out of the way, this has to be a vengeance game. Two weeks ago, the dysfunctional Knicks unceremoniously ran the Spurs out of Madison Square Garden in what could be viewed as the low-point of the season. Now, the Spurs have a chance for payback against a team that is more focused on Zion Williamson than winning basketball games. There really is no excuse to lose this one.

March 16th - POR @ SAS - Hopefully the Spurs will be able to get guys some rest against New York, because they face a tough back-to-back against a potential playoff foe who is playing well right now. The Spurs are currently only 2.5 games behind the Blazers so it's far from impossible to catch them in the standings, especially if they leave San Antonio with a loss. More importantly, this would knot the H2H schedule at 2-2 and send a potential tiebreaker to Conference Record where the Spurs currently hold a significant advantage. This is easily the most important game of the week.

[Indianman]

Can anyone explain how these magic numbers work?

Apologies for being a noob.

[MVPCues]

Can anyone explain how these magic numbers work?

Apologies for being a noob.

The magic number column is how many wins the Spurs must achieve in order to move ahead of that team in the playoff standings. So if you look at the Warriors, the Spurs need 24 wins to move ahead of them. Since there are only 15 games left, Spurs would have to go 15 -0, and the Warriors would have to go 7-9 to overtake them, 24 wins worth. Won't happen, but it is mathematically possible.

[exstatic]

Can anyone explain how these magic numbers work?

Apologies for being a noob.

A Magic number is a combination of your team's upcoming wins and team x's losses that will ensure that team x finishes behind your team in the standings. I think tie-breakers also factor in, because if your team owns the tie-breaker, team x has to finish one game ahead of your team, or risk elimination.

[Indianman]

Thanks guys. 'ppreciate it.

[Kobe'sAchilles]

OKC has a brutal schedule coming up. If we take care of business we could pass them up tbh.

[Dex]

OKC has a brutal schedule coming up. If we take care of business we could pass them up tbh.

You weren't kidding...OKC has the 4th hardest schedule remaining.

Even tougher is MIN, who has the 2nd hardest schedule. In their last 15 games they play the Nuggets (2x), Jazz, Rockets, Warriors (2x), Clippers, Sixers, Blazers, Thunder, and Raptors.

That's 11 out of 15 games against playoff teams. I don't see them surviving that gauntlet.

[TDomination]

After a big win against the league's top team in both record and defense, the Spurs are riding a 5-game winning streak and suddenly, the bottom end of the Magic Numbers list is looking much more manageable.

The Spurs are now tied with the Jazz and Clippers for 6th place (game-wise), and the Kings have fallen to four games behind the pack. Despite playing well recently, Sacramento still hasn't been able to make up much ground...a few more losses could send them into a tailspin that would all but cement the top 8 teams.

Re-arranged to reflect current standings:
https://i.imgur.com/p6FvTt2.png

Upcoming games this week:

March 12th - SAS @ DAL - Considering this game could be worth up to 3 magic numbers, a win here would essentially be a knock-out blow in the Magic Number column for the Mavericks. However, going into Dallas and getting a victory has always been a challenge for the Spurs regardless of who lines up against them. The Spurs have won the first two matchups this season but only by a combined nine points, so they should not get too complacent with the Mavericks' shoddy record if they want to keep their win streak running.

March 15th - NYK @ SAS - With the New York's annual victory against the Spurs already out of the way, this has to be a vengeance game. Two weeks ago, the dysfunctional Knicks unceremoniously ran the Spurs out of Madison Square Garden in what could be viewed as the low-point of the season. Now, the Spurs have a chance for payback against a team that is more focused on Zion Williamson than winning basketball games. There really is no excuse to lose this one.

March 16th - POR @ SAS - Hopefully the Spurs will be able to get guys some rest against New York, because they face a tough back-to-back against a potential playoff foe who is playing well right now. The Spurs are currently only 2.5 games behind the Blazers so it's far from impossible to catch them in the standings, especially if they leave San Antonio with a loss. More importantly, this would knot the H2H schedule at 2-2 and send a potential tiebreaker to Conference Record where the Spurs currently hold a significant advantage. This is easily the most important game of the week.

Thanks for these updates Dex. I'm loving this thread. Especially with us winning.

Since the games against Knicks and Blazers are back to backs. i seriously hope Pop doesn't make the same mistake and rest a player or two against the Knicks. We just can't have that. Please don't rest anyone. Thats my biggest concern. I truly think this team can with both if we have every playing in both games.

The mindset should be, play the knicks with everyone but put the foot on the gas and try to blow them out. Giving the starters rest for the next game.

[Kobe'sAchilles]

You weren't kidding...OKC has the 4th hardest schedule remaining.

Even tougher is MIN, who has the 2nd hardest schedule. In their last 15 games they play the Nuggets (2x), Jazz, Rockets, Warriors (2x), Clippers, Sixers, Blazers, Thunder, and Raptors.

That's 11 out of 15 games against playoff teams. I don't see them surviving that gauntlet.

Yeah OKC has to face like 7 playoff teams in a row or something like that.

And Minny might shut down Towns for the season so expect them to go like 4-11 to finish off the season. They'll probably end up drafting another Kentucky loser :lol

[Mugen]

Still can't believe how well the Clippers have played since the trade. I mean props to them but that 1st round pick would have been nice to have this year, I'd much rather have tanked it and finished 9th tbh.

[exstatic]

Still can't believe how well the Clippers have played since the trade. I mean props to them but that 1st round pick would have been nice to have this year, I'd much rather have tanked it and finished 9th tbh.

They've got two MAX slots for this summer, two future first rounders from the Philly Trade, including Miami's 2021 unprotected pick, two second rounders, and 2018 Philly first round pick Landry Shamet. They'll be just fine if they make the playoffs. Jerry West isn't going to fumble MAX slots like his doofus counterpart across town.

[Ed Helicopter Jones]

I really like this thread, but it's scary at the same time realizing how our magic number with the Kings sits at 13 with 15 games to go. Hopefully we can start hitting some doubles with us winning and them losing to pull that number down so we're not in the last 3 games of the season still fighting for a playoff spot.

[Dex]

I really like this thread, but it's scary at the same time realizing how our magic number with the Kings sits at 13 with 15 games to go. Hopefully we can start hitting some doubles with us winning and them losing to pull that number down so we're not in the last 3 games of the season still fighting for a playoff spot.

Yeah, they are not out of the race by any means.

If both teams ended the rest of the season on the right side of .500, that would put the Spurs at 8-7 and the Kings at 9-8...and the Spurs will have just edged them out by 3 or 4.

The Kings have been playing much better than I think anyone expected, but they are still 10-10 over their last 20, so .500 for them doesn't seem outlandish even with a fairly balanced schedule.

We will definitely take whatever help they are willing to give, but winning the last matchup against them on March 31st could be vital.

[exstatic]

I really like this thread, but it's scary at the same time realizing how our magic number with the Kings sits at 13 with 15 games to go. Hopefully we can start hitting some doubles with us winning and them losing to pull that number down so we're not in the last 3 games of the season still fighting for a playoff spot.

In our last 15 games, we have Dallas twice, Cavs twice, Knicks, Kings*, Wizards and Hawks. Winning all of those very winnable games gets us 9 of the points against Sacto that we need in 8 games, since we will likely have the tiebreaker with Sacto on the second criteria, conference record, and that would be an additional point on top of us winning the game with them and them simultaneously losing the game to us.

[Dex]

In our last 15 games, we have Dallas twice, Cavs twice, Knicks, Kings*, Wizards and Hawks. Winning all of those very winnable games gets us 9 of the points against Sacto that we need in 8 games, since we will likely have the tiebreaker with Sacto on the second criteria, conference record, and that would be an additional point on top of us winning the game with them and them simultaneously losing the game to us.

We only face the Kings three times and they won the first two (ugh), so they already have the tiebreaker.

We can still capture two with a win against them, though.

[Ed Helicopter Jones]

Thank you Washington Wizards.

[tbdog]

Still can't believe how well the Clippers have played since the trade. I mean props to them but that 1st round pick would have been nice to have this year, I'd much rather have tanked it and finished 9th tbh.

I told everyone here how overrated Harris is. Williams and Gali are the leaders of that team. Oh, and the 76ers have not been playing well either.

[spurs10]

We are temporarily the #6 seed. Clippers are beating the Celtics so far which will put us back to 7 if they win.

[Keepin' it real]

Warriors semi-tanking down the stretch, positioning themselves for another first round matchup vs. SAS. :ihit

[skin27]

Warriors semi-tanking down the stretch, positioning themselves for another first round matchup vs. SAS. :ihit


and pop will be remembered as the one who got owned by Kerr in the playoffs..lol

spurs should avoid the warriors at all cost..tbh

[Dex]

and pop will be remembered as the one who got owned by Kerr in the playoffs..lol

spurs should avoid the warriors at all cost..tbh

Yes, I'm sure the history will books will say nothing about the Warriors three-to-five All-Stars and MVP-duo.

All of that success on the back of mastermind Kerr.

How quickly people forget that since getting Durant, the Warriors have lost exactly 6 playoff games...3 to Houston, 1 to the Cavs in the Finals, 1 to the Pelicans, and 1 to a Spurs team that was missing Kawhi. We've actually fared better than most against them in the postseason.

[John B]

Just noticed TP is in danger of missing the playoffs for the first time in his career. I hope he makes it, tbh.
He could've continued his streak with Spurs tbh and played a vital role when Spurs were forced to play without a real PG. Manu and TP could've played Dante and QPon's minutes and would've been way effective..

[monty4329]

He could've continued his streak with Spurs tbh and played a vital role when Spurs were forced to play without a real PG. Manu and TP could've played Dante and QPon's minutes and would've been way effective..

True. Also true that TP would have been the third guard with sporadic minutes. In Charlotte he has had games where he looked like the old TP. He had/has in the tank much more than the Spurs were giving him credit for. I am not saying he is now better than Dejunte end Derrick (although in situations, I am sure he still is), but I understand him wanting to still play at the level he can, and that wouldn't have been possible with the Spurs.

[Dex]

True. Also true that TP would have been the third guard with sporadic minutes. In Charlotte he has had games where he looked like the old TP. He had/has in the tank much more than the Spurs were giving him credit for. I am not saying he is now better than Dejunte end Derrick (although in situations, I am sure he still is), but I understand him wanting to still play at the level he can, and that wouldn't have been possible with the Spurs.

I don't think so. Bryn has fared as well as could be expected in the starting lineup, but that was most certainly out of necessity.

I'd bet dollars to donuts that if Tony were still here, he would've been starting at least up until the point where White was able to return...and would probably still be starting now.

Murray's injury would have opened tons of minutes for him, but of course there was no way he could see that coming when he signed with Charlotte.

That said, TP wouldn't have wanted to play Dante/QPon minutes...and I doubt Manu would either. They are both too competitive to be bench riders.

[exstatic]

He could've continued his streak with Spurs tbh and played a vital role when Spurs were forced to play without a real PG. Manu and TP could've played Dante and QPon's minutes and would've been way effective..

TP and Manu wouldn't have played Pon and 'Hams minutes, they would have played Forbes and Whites.

[John B]

I don't think so. Bryn has fared as well as could be expected in the starting lineup, but that was most certainly out of necessity.

I'd bet dollars to donuts that if Tony were still here, he would've been starting at least up until the point where White was able to return...and would probably still be starting now.

Murray's injury would have opened tons of minutes for him, but of course there was no way he could see that coming when he signed with Charlotte.

That said, TP wouldn't have wanted to play Dante/QPon minutes...and I doubt Manu would either. They are both too competitive to be bench riders.
And I guess it was too much to ask to be waived to come running back to Spurs. We could still use his leadership in situations

Hornets are not totally out yet knocking at Heat for the last spot. Heat's next few games would be away against plus .500 teams

[ZeusWillJudge]

I don't think so. Bryn has fared as well as could be expected in the starting lineup, but that was most certainly out of necessity.

I'd bet dollars to donuts that if Tony were still here, he would've been starting at least up until the point where White was able to return...and would probably still be starting now.

Murray's injury would have opened tons of minutes for him, but of course there was no way he could see that coming when he signed with Charlotte.

That said, TP wouldn't have wanted to play Dante/QPon minutes...and I doubt Manu would either. They are both too competitive to be bench riders.


I don't think there's any doubt that Tony would have gotten a lot of starts. He doesn't have the 3-ball like Bryn, but he would be a stabilizing factor, and keep the offense moving. The truth is, his Per36 numbers are the best they have been in years. He's even gotten to the line more frequently than he had in about 5 years. I think he'd start getting diminishing returns above about 20 minutes, but it would have been nice to have him on the floor to start games.

I actually feel sorry for Bryn because of the amount of ball pressure he gets, even just bringing the ball up the court. And they do it because they know he's prone to coughing it up. The sharks smell blood in the water, and the weaker your handles the more attention you get. But it really limits when and how he can be useful.

[monty4329]

I don't think there's any doubt that Tony would have gotten a lot of starts. He doesn't have the 3-ball like Bryn, but he would be a stabilizing factor, and keep the offense moving. The truth is, his Per36 numbers are the best they have been in years. He's even gotten to the line more frequently than he had in about 5 years. I think he'd start getting diminishing returns above about 20 minutes, but it would have been nice to have him on the floor to start games.

I actually feel sorry for Bryn because of the amount of ball pressure he gets, even just bringing the ball up the court. And they do it because they know he's prone to coughing it up. The sharks smell blood in the water, and the weaker your handles the more attention you get. But it really limits when and how he can be useful.

Forbes is not playing PG, so there wouldn't have been any competition with TP for minutes. If Murray was healthy, TP would have played at most 12-15 minutes, after White and possibly Mills. The way he is playing, it is obvious that wasn't acceptable for him. Considering the White huge improvement, abd Murray's reported stellar summer, I can't blame Pop though.

[ZeusWillJudge]

Forbes is not playing PG, so there wouldn't have been any competition with TP for minutes. If Murray was healthy, TP would have played at most 12-15 minutes, after White and possibly Mills. The way he is playing, it is obvious that wasn't acceptable for him. Considering the White huge improvement, abd Murray's reported stellar summer, I can't blame Pop though.


Yeah, I see it differently. DDR has had to take over too much PG duty, because Forbes isn't up to it. I think the whole team would have benefitted from having a real point on the floor. We'll never know, but I think Tony would have seen a lot of starts. Those first 6 minutes are important, and after that it's more situational. Most of all, his experience and stability would have been VERY important on the road, which is where the Spurs have lost most of their games. People here loved to bash Tony's defense, but compared to some of the matadors on this roster he was a defensive juggernaut.

The problem with all that is that I don't think we'd have seen the development of White to the extent we have.

[YGWHI]

I wouldn't buy "tough" schedule late in the season.

We rank schedule .500/seeding but looking at this and last week games...It's easy to realize is better to face a top team in the last games of the season who will rest key players or at least won't give it all, than a #6-7-8 team who will play hard to make playoffs/improve seeding.

[Dex]

https://i.imgur.com/KbKFVwR.png

Big win for the good guys in Dallas. With the tiebreaker now secured, the Mavericks are basically on life support along with the Pelicans and Grizzlies as far as Magic Numbers are concerned.

Spurs also got some help from the Pelicans, Timberwolves, and Clippers to temporarily take sole possession of 6th place.

On the slate tonight, the Thunder face the up-and-coming Nets, the Grizzlies face the low-and-falling Hawks, the Warriors battle with the flopping Rockets, and the Jazz will do something that slightly resembles a basketball game in Phoenix. Hopefully the Spurs will shave a few more numbers off while they rest.

[Dex]

I wouldn't buy "tough" schedule late in the season.

We rank schedule .500/seeding but looking at this and last week games...It's easy to realize is better to face a top team in the last games of the season who will rest key players or at least won't give it all, than a #6-7-8 team who will play hard to make playoffs/improve seeding.

Eh, I think teams are still jostling for position too much to start taking games off, especially in the West. The Nuggets could still catch the Warriors for the #1 spot, and everyone else is right on their heels.

[ZeusWillJudge]

Dex, you really have done great work with this thread. I was in favor of the Spurs missing the playoffs and getting a better draft pick. But since it's obvious they aren't going to do that, it's been nice to have your updates to look at. The format is excellent, and your commentary is professional quality. It helps us make the most out of whatever is left of this season.

[cjw]

They've got two MAX slots for this summer, two future first rounders from the Philly Trade, including Miami's 2021 unprotected pick, two second rounders, and 2018 Philly first round pick Landry Shamet. They'll be just fine if they make the playoffs. Jerry West isn't going to fumble MAX slots like his doofus counterpart across town.

And giving up their pick this year makes it slightly easier to secure that second max slot.

[DesignatedT]

Best Case Realistic Scenario:

1.GSW
2.DEN
3.POR
4.OKC
5.HOU
6.SAS
7.UTA
8.LAC

[Dex]

Thanks for these updates Dex. I'm loving this thread. Especially with us winning.



Dex, you really have done great work with this thread. I was in favor of the Spurs missing the playoffs and getting a better draft pick. But since it's obvious they aren't going to do that, it's been nice to have your updates to look at. The format is excellent, and your commentary is professional quality. It helps us make the most out of whatever is left of this season.

:bobo

[cjw]

One other race to watch ... what happens with the Raptors’ pick.

Currently the second best record in the league at 20 losses, so would be 29th pick:

Milwaukee 17
Toronto 20
Golden St 21
Denver 22
Houston, Philly, Indy 25 (no realistic chance of catching Toronto)
OKC, Portland 26

That’s only nine teams, so Spurs will keep pick. But should be pulling for Toronto to start losing games to at least push the pick up to 27th. Once Milwaukee is close to clinching ... they have tiebreaker, they may start resting players a bit more. Meanwhile Denver and GS could keep fighting it out for the 1 seed.

If Toronto picks up an injury, or Harden goes supernova and the Rockets rip off a huge win streak, the Spurs could pick inside of 27. But really doubtful.

Spurs’ own pick will likely be in the 18-20 range unless they falter or one of the teams above them does.

[timvp]

Great work, Dex. Best thread going, tbh.

[ZeusWillJudge]

So in 02-03, the Spurs were 4-5 games back of the Mavs in early March, and the deficit looked like too much. The Mavs didn't collapse, but didn't finish quite as strong as their record up till then. The Spurs finished something like 18-4, and pulled into a tie - and since they owned the tiebreaker they wound up with home court in the playoffs.

This run is starting to remind me of that finish. If OKC loses tonight, the Spurs are within 2 games and own the tiebreaker - well within reach of the 4-5 slot in the playoffs. And they could definitely survive a first round series with Portland. These aren't the 03 Spurs, and they aren't going to contend for the LOB this year, but getting out of the first round seemed like too much to ask for not that long ago.

But every time I think about it, I cringe at dropping farther down the draft board. I can't help it.


Meh... I should have known the Nets couldn't hold a lead.

[phxspurfan]

Balla thread, like the DJ Murray of threads

[Dex]

So in 02-03, the Spurs were 4-5 games back of the Mavs in early March, and the deficit looked like too much. The Mavs didn't collapse, but didn't finish quite as strong as their record up till then. The Spurs finished something like 18-4, and pulled into a tie - and since they owned the tiebreaker they wound up with home court in the playoffs.

This run is starting to remind me of that finish. If OKC loses tonight, the Spurs are within 2 games and own the tiebreaker - well within reach of the 4-5 slot in the playoffs. And they could definitely survive a first round series with Portland. These aren't the 03 Spurs, and they aren't going to contend for the LOB this year, but getting out of the first round seemed like too much to ask for not that long ago.

But every time I think about it, I cringe at dropping farther down the draft board. I can't help it.


Meh... I should have known the Nets couldn't hold a lead.

2003 was such a magical season. Mavs were like 10 games ahead in first place at one point, and like you said, never really hit a drought.

But that season is what taught me the value of pounding the rock. Those Spurs were undermanned and fought hard for every game.

By the end of the season, they had tied the Mavericks in the standings and taken the tiebreaker for the #1 seed and were rolling going into the playoffs.

Every series went to 6 games...but the Spurs never stopped pounding.

They came back against the Suns after Marbury stole Game 1. They upset the threepeat Lakers. They showed the Mavericks who was boss in the WCF. And they gutted out another Game 6 victory after being down on their home floor so that confetti could rain on Robinson one last time.

I know being a couple spots higher in the draft would be nice. But these guys deserve a good playoff run, and it's not hard to imagine. If 2003 showed us anything...it's that there is always a reason to believe.

[bluebellmaniac]

2003 was such a magical season. Mavs were like 10 games ahead in first place at one point, and like you said, never really hit a drought.

But that season is what taught me the value of pounding the rock. Those Spurs were undermanned and fought hard for every game.

By the end of the season, they had tied the Mavericks in the standings and taken the tiebreaker for the #1 seed and were rolling going into the playoffs.

Every series went to 6 games...but the Spurs never stopped pounding.

They came back against the Suns after Marbury stole Game 1. They upset the threepeat Lakers. They showed the Mavericks who was boss in the WCF. And they gutted out another Game 6 victory after being down on their home floor so that confetti could rain on Robinson one last time.

I know being a couple spots higher in the draft would be nice. But these guys deserve a good playoff run, and it's not hard to imagine. If 2003 showed us anything...it's that there is always a reason to believe.

+1

[Ed Helicopter Jones]

Well, the Spurs will be hard pressed to stay in the 6 spot over the next 5 games. The Spurs next 5 games look like this:

Knicks @ Spurs
Blazers @ Spurs
Warriors @ Spurs
Miami @ Spurs
Spurs @ Rockets

Other than the Knicks game, that's a tough 5 game stretch. 3-2 would be a pretty acceptable result over the next 5 games. At least 4 are at home.




As for the Jazz and Clippers, they could realistically both go 5-0 over their next 5 games:

Jazz:

T'Wolves @ Jazz
Nets @ Jazz
Jazz @ Wizards
Jazz @ Knicks
Jazz @ Hawks

The Jazz should be favored in all of those games. Less than 5-0 would be disappointing if I'm a Jazz fan. The Wizards game on the road and the Nets should provide at least a mild challenge.


Clippers:

Bulls @ Clips
Nets @ Clips
Pacers @ Clips
Clips @ Cavs
Clips @ Knicks

For the Clippers, the Nets and Pacers games are the only non-lottery team games in the next 5, and the only two challenging games are both home games. Realistically the Clippers should be 5-0 as well.




At least the Kings shouldn't gain much ground on the Spurs over the next 5:

Kings @ Celtics
Kings @ Sixers
Bulls @ Kings
Nets @ Kings
Mavs @ Kings

You could say they'll be favored in 3 of those 5 games, so 3-2 would be a reasonable result. 5-0 is not impossible, but their schedule is definitely a notch harder than the Jazz and Clippers over the next 5. The Celtics and Sixers games are both road games, so I'd expect them to drop at least one, if not both, of those. So, hopefully we'll pick up 5 magic numbers against the Kings in the next 5.

[ZeusWillJudge]

2003 was such a magical season. Mavs were like 10 games ahead in first place at one point, and like you said, never really hit a drought.

But that season is what taught me the value of pounding the rock. Those Spurs were undermanned and fought hard for every game.

By the end of the season, they had tied the Mavericks in the standings and taken the tiebreaker for the #1 seed and were rolling going into the playoffs.

Every series went to 6 games...but the Spurs never stopped pounding.

They came back against the Suns after Marbury stole Game 1. They upset the threepeat Lakers. They showed the Mavericks who was boss in the WCF. And they gutted out another Game 6 victory after being down on their home floor so that confetti could rain on Robinson one last time.

I know being a couple spots higher in the draft would be nice. But these guys deserve a good playoff run, and it's not hard to imagine. If 2003 showed us anything...it's that there is always a reason to believe.


I think you just sold me a 10 year old Volvo station wagon. But I'm feeling really good about my purchase. :blah

[phxspurfan]

The Kangs play the Celtics tonight. They may already be tanking, but if the Celtics beat them legitimately that may be of huge help adding some distance between them and a spot

[phxspurfan]

2003 was such a magical season. Mavs were like 10 games ahead in first place at one point, and like you said, never really hit a drought.

But that season is what taught me the value of pounding the rock. Those Spurs were undermanned and fought hard for every game.

By the end of the season, they had tied the Mavericks in the standings and taken the tiebreaker for the #1 seed and were rolling going into the playoffs.

Every series went to 6 games...but the Spurs never stopped pounding.

They came back against the Suns after Marbury stole Game 1. They upset the threepeat Lakers. They showed the Mavericks who was boss in the WCF. And they gutted out another Game 6 victory after being down on their home floor so that confetti could rain on Robinson one last time.

I know being a couple spots higher in the draft would be nice. But these guys deserve a good playoff run, and it's not hard to imagine. If 2003 showed us anything...it's that there is always a reason to believe.

'03 was ridiculous tbh. So many miracles happened to get that ring, and the Spurs were on a mission to send DRob out in glory

- Pre-China Marbury making the first series a series with his pluckyness (everyone got so plucky against Team Duncan!)

FmUTzH6EGLE

- beating the 3peat lakers, basically with Duncan going full out MVP/God mode, while Shaq and Kobe were both in their primes (LeBroom voice as TD: "dat right dere made me the GOAT.")

https://i.ibb.co/KKtTmbt/2002.png

making Kobe/DFish cry:

Ck9nyiwaTIg

- Capt. Jack and Kerr going bonkers in game 6 of the Mavs series, hitting all those 3s

https://i.ibb.co/PYHnT5f/jack.png

kO4caOwS6jI

...and the finals series no one but Spurs and Nets fans watched. Featuing rookie Manu

https://i.ibb.co/hmDZ0wG/2003.png

plucky KMart

7OqnNeHVR9k

Also Speedy Claxton bailing out Tony. Speedy! Speedy!

bEJA1X1_Lp4

[Dex]

- Capt. Jack and Kerr going bonkers in game 6 of the Mavs series, hitting all those 3s

https://i.ibb.co/PYHnT5f/jack.png

kO4caOwS6jI


Still one of my favorite runs in Spurs history...especially since the Mavs had just upset the Spurs in similar fashion in game 5.

Top 3:

1) 2014 Finals Game 5 - 39-15 run to turn a first quarter beating into a championship

i1ANov-Ogvg

2) 2003 WCF Game 6 - Kerr and Jackson make DRob go bonkers (already posted)

3) 2013 WCSF Game 1 - Spurs erase a 16-point 4th quarter deficit to force a double-overtime win against the Warriors:

y50bB0d6eqI

[ZeusWillJudge]

I know being a couple spots higher in the draft would be nice. But these guys deserve a good playoff run, and it's not hard to imagine. If 2003 showed us anything...it's that there is always a reason to believe.


Dammit, Dex. I liked the sound of that. And the Spurs are now sitting 6th, with only two losses separating them from OKC.

And then I look at the current draft position, and they've moved down to 20. There is a HUGE difference in potential between 13 and 20. And if they play well enough to move up into that 4-5 slot, they will be drafting just about where they always do. Just once, I wanted to see them get up to where the clear talent is. I know they've done well with what they've had, but I really, really wanted to see them apply that skill to the upper half of the draft.

[ZeusWillJudge]

Sacto lost tonight, and the Spurs are now 6 games ahead in the loss column with 13 games left to play. The Spurs haven't offically locked anything up, but it would be an epic collapse at this point to miss the playoffs. Portland isn't going away, so it looks like they could finish anywhere from 5-8, but I guess the streak is going to continue.

I'm really getting kind of worn out talking/wondering about who their first round series will be. I would love for them to be competitive, at least. If they could take a series to 6 games, it's worth a lot of revenue from three home playoff games. Honestly that looks like overachieving compared to where they were earlier in the season.

[Dex]

https://i.imgur.com/t1VdGG6.png

Another Spurs win and a pair of Kings losses is just what the doctor ordered. Spurs now have a 6.5 game lead on Sacramento in the W/L column, and their Magic Number looks much better than it did just two weeks ago.

Meanwhile, LeTank is still in full effect in Los Angeles, and the Pelicans still seem to have their wings clipped even with AD back in the lineup...it's really no wonder why their star bigman wants out of the bayou.

Tonight is a big night for the Spurs. Not only does their matchup against Portland have big playoff implications, but the Thunder, Jazz, and Nuggets all have tough games of their own.

With a top six seed in sight, the Spurs need to keep their foot on the gas and continue to protect their home ground.

[Seventyniner]

A Spurs win and a Thunder loss would be great news today, keeping GS at #1 and increasing the Spurs' chances of moving up.

OC has the toughest remaining schedule of any top 8 team in the West at 2.23 (though one of their tough games is the season finale @MIL, and the Bucks should have the overall #1 seed locked up by then), and Utah has the easiest at -3.18. The other teams that the Spurs are jockeying with all have rSOS (remaining strength of schedule) around -0.5.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.html

[sasaint]

https://i.imgur.com/t1VdGG6.png

Another Spurs win and a pair of Kings losses is just what the doctor ordered. Spurs now have a 6.5 game lead on Sacramento in the W/L column, and their Magic Number looks much better than it did just two weeks ago.

Meanwhile, LeTank is still in full effect in Los Angeles, and the Pelicans still seem to have their wings clipped even with AD back in the lineup...it's really no wonder why their star bigman wants out of the bayou.

Tonight is a big night for the Spurs. Not only does their matchup against Portland have big playoff implications, but the Thunder, Jazz, and Nuggets all have tough games of their own.

With a top six seed in sight, the Spurs need to keep their foot on the gas and continue to protect their home ground.

We just need to keep taking care of our own business. 4 is conceivable buy very unlikely. 5 seems possible. And anything less than 6 would disappoint me a little at this point.

[bklynspursfan]

Snake is returning on Monday vs us.

[pad300]

I'd be pretty happy with 7th. GSW has 2 to 1 lead in the season series with DEN, and the final game is at home for them; for DEN to take the tiebreaker, they would have to win by 47 pts if I have my math right. Combined with a 1 game GSW lead in the standings, I suspect that GSW will be #1 overall. Given there is no way we are getting to 4th (IMO) and home court, 7th is the best combination of first round opponent and draft pick...

[phxspurfan]

West standings:

https://i.ibb.co/Vvt2C7w/wstandings.png

A conservative look at the Spurs' remaining schedule, where they lose against GSW, @HOU, @BOS, @DEN, closes their season with a 9-4 record from their remaining games. They would have a 49-33 record, and a solid shot at the 5th seed, if OKC were to falter on their 4th-hardest-in-the-NBA schedule remaining (link (http://www.tankathon.com/remaining_schedule_strength)). But they would also be fighting off the Jazz, who sport the league's easiest schedule for the remaining month.

Sat 3/16 - vs. POR (Spurs on home/home B2B, POR on away/away B2B) - W (toss-up)
Mon 3/18 - vs. GSW - L
Wed 3/20 - vs. MIA - W
Fri 3/22 - @ HOU - L
Sun 3/24 - @ BOS (BOS on away/home B2B) - L
Tue 3/26 - @ CHA - W
Thu 3/28 - vs. CLE (Manu jersey retirement ceremony) - W
Sun 3/31 - vs. SAC (Kings on away/away B2B) - W
Tue 4/2 - vs. ATL - W
Wed 4/3 - @ DEN (Spurs on home-away B2B, DEN on away/home B2B) - L (may be a toss-up as DEN will have just played GSW, and if GSW rested, DEN wins easily. If GSW didn't rest, DEN will be tired)
Fri 3/5 - @ WAS - W
Sun 4/7 - @ CLE - W
Wed 4/10 - vs. DAL (DAL on home/away B2B) - W

[Seventyniner]

A Spurs win and a Thunder loss would be great news today, keeping GS at #1 and increasing the Spurs' chances of moving up.

It went even better than I could have hoped. Westbrook got his 16th tech and will miss OC's next game against Miami. They then play Toronto twice.

[Chinook]

Just wanted to put a bit more detail into the tie-break scenarios for the teams that could still factor into SA’s seeding.

Golden State — H2H win on Monday. The Warriors have a huge lead for the second tie-break but they honestly won’t be caught, so I’m not going into great detail there. Only have them for completeness’ sake.

Denver — H2H goes to the Spurs if they win the 4/3 game. If they lose, Denver has a commanding lead for the tie-break, but they’re also unlikely to be caught anyway.

Houston — Can tie up H2H on 3/22, which would give them control of the second tie-break (division record). They’d also be decently positioned to win the conference-record tie-break. The Rockets are one of the few teams that have a better record against the West than SA does, but win a loss to the Spurs, the two clubs would be knotted up with Houston having a harder in-conference schedule at that point.

OKC — H2H locked in, but in the event of a three-way tie, the Spurs have to worry about the Thunder’s stellar conference record. They are only one game behind the Spurs, and that includes this recent loss to GS

Portland — H2H knotted up. The Spurs hold a substantial lead in conference record, and they could clinch that tie-break as early as Friday if they win their two conference games next weekend and Portland loses theirs against Dallas. The Spurs actually have a very East-based schedule the rest of the way, so it might take a while to get the official tie-break. But it should happen eventually.

Utah — Lost the H2H already, and there’s a decent chance the Jazz could catch the Spurs in the conference-record tie-break. SA has a one-game lead, but that could be snapped up pretty easily by Houston and/or GS. Even if the Spurs do win this tie-break, it’s pretty unlikely they’d get to this second step in multi-team scenarios. They’d lose in three-way ties with, Portland, OKC, LAC and Sacramento. They’d only not lose against Denver (though Utah would actually still beat SA unless the Nuggets win both lose their game against SA and beat Utah five days later). They’d lose to against Houston if the Rockets were in another division, but since the winner of the Southwest has to be determined first, if the Spurs won based on division record or something, they’d actually win the multi-team tie-break due to the “zeroth rule” where division winners automatically win any ties with wildcards (and no, this is not the same rule that was changed after 2015 — it’s still there.) It doesn’t help that the two teams are tied in the loss column already, so it wouldn’t be absurd to consider Utah the actual sixth seed as of right now.

LAC — H2H knotted up. Conference tie-break is too close to call. The Spurs have a two-game lead on them, and both teams play Houston and GS. The Spurs also play Denver, though, and neither Dallas nor Sacramento can be taken lightly.

SAC — Lost the H2H already. If the Spurs win a conference game or if the Kings lose a conference game, the Spurs will secure the second-tie break. As with the Jazz, it’s really hard to see a scenario where the Spurs even get to a second tie-break scenario with the Kings. Losing a three-game series 2-1 is a killer for multi-team scenarios.

Minnesota — The Spurs have already won the H2H, and their conference magic number is 1. Heck, it might be zero, but I can’t be asked to calculate the third tie-break (record against playoff teams in the West). Seeing how they’re at the bottom of a division where the other four teams are currently in the playoffs, I’d assume they wouldn’t grade well there, while SA has an okay record against Western playoff teams that could become downright elite if they win their matches against GS, Houston and Denver.

LAL — LOL. Their 3-1 H2H win makes it really unlikely the teams could even have a second tie-break. They’re toast anyway.

DAL — Also LOL. They’re in the same boat the Lakers are, but their magic number is lower. It’s possible that the Spurs have secured all possible three-way tie-breaks anyway. Even if Dallas managed to tie, the Spurs have already won the second tie-break too.

NO and Memphis can’t catch SA in any scenario and Phoenix has been eliminated from playoff contention. No need to talk about them.

[SpurPadre]

Amazing that we can still get 3rd seed. To somehow pull that off should easily give Pop coach of the year honors.

[tbdog]

Westbrook got a T tonight which means he is suspended next game.

[monty4329]

Just wanted to put a bit more detail into the tie-break scenarios for the teams that could still factor into SA’s seeding.

Golden State — H2H win on Monday. The Warriors have a huge lead for the second tie-break but they honestly won’t be caught, so I’m not going into great detail there. Only have them for completeness’ sake.

Denver — H2H goes to the Spurs if they win the 4/3 game. If they lose, Denver has a commanding lead for the tie-break, but they’re also unlikely to be caught anyway.

Houston — Can tie up H2H on 3/22, which would give them control of the second tie-break (division record). They’d also be decently positioned to win the conference-record tie-break. The Rockets are one of the few teams that have a better record against the West than SA does, but win a loss to the Spurs, the two clubs would be knotted up with Houston having a harder in-conference schedule at that point.

OKC — H2H locked in, but in the event of a three-way tie, the Spurs have to worry about the Thunder’s stellar conference record. They are only one game behind the Spurs, and that includes this recent loss to GS

Portland — H2H knotted up. The Spurs hold a substantial lead in conference record, and they could clinch that tie-break as early as Friday if they win their two conference games next weekend and Portland loses theirs against Dallas. The Spurs actually have a very East-based schedule the rest of the way, so it might take a while to get the official tie-break. But it should happen eventually.

Utah — Lost the H2H already, and there’s a decent chance the Jazz could catch the Spurs in the conference-record tie-break. SA has a one-game lead, but that could be snapped up pretty easily by Houston and/or GS. Even if the Spurs do win this tie-break, it’s pretty unlikely they’d get to this second step in multi-team scenarios. They’d lose in three-way ties with, Portland, OKC, LAC and Sacramento. They’d only not lose against Denver (though Utah would actually still beat SA unless the Nuggets win both lose their game against SA and beat Utah five days later). They’d lose to against Houston if the Rockets were in another division, but since the winner of the Southwest has to be determined first, if the Spurs won based on division record or something, they’d actually win the multi-team tie-break due to the “zeroth rule” where division winners automatically win any ties with wildcards (and no, this is not the same rule that was changed after 2015 — it’s still there.) It doesn’t help that the two teams are tied in the loss column already, so it wouldn’t be absurd to consider Utah the actual sixth seed as of right now.

LAC — H2H knotted up. Conference tie-break is too close to call. The Spurs have a two-game lead on them, and both teams play Houston and GS. The Spurs also play Denver, though, and neither Dallas nor Sacramento can be taken lightly.

SAC — Lost the H2H already. If the Spurs win a conference game or if the Kings lose a conference game, the Spurs will secure the second-tie break. As with the Jazz, it’s really hard to see a scenario where the Spurs even get to a second tie-break scenario with the Kings. Losing a three-game series 2-1 is a killer for multi-team scenarios.

Minnesota — The Spurs have already won the H2H, and their conference magic number is 1. Heck, it might be zero, but I can’t be asked to calculate the third tie-break (record against playoff teams in the West). Seeing how they’re at the bottom of a division where the other four teams are currently in the playoffs, I’d assume they wouldn’t grade well there, while SA has an okay record against Western playoff teams that could become downright elite if they win their matches against GS, Houston and Denver.

LAL — LOL. Their 3-1 H2H win makes it really unlikely the teams could even have a second tie-break. They’re toast anyway.

DAL — Also LOL. They’re in the same boat the Lakers are, but their magic number is lower. It’s possible that the Spurs have secured all possible three-way tie-breaks anyway. Even if Dallas managed to tie, the Spurs have already won the second tie-break too.

NO and Memphis can’t catch SA in any scenario and Phoenix has been eliminated from playoff contention. No need to talk about them.

Hats off.

How long did it take you to prepare and make this post? Appreciated much.

[monty4329]

Amazing that we can still get 3rd seed. To somehow pull that off should easily give Pop coach of the year honors.

Amazing that we can still win it all

[GusT15]

Hats off.

How long did it take you to prepare and make this post? Appreciated much.

It's pretty obvious Chinook did the research and made this post so he could laugh out loud and take a shit on the Lakers and the Mavs while staying polite and analytical as he is accustomed to be :lol

Chinook,it's okay dude,i got you.

Fuck the Lakers.Fuck the Mavericks.

Go Spurs GO!

[vander]

Amazing that we can still get 3rd seed. To somehow pull that off should easily give Pop coach of the year honors.

yep, some brilliant moves by Pop this year, starting Bryn and giving him the green light has paid yuge dividends

[ZeusWillJudge]

Just wanted to put a bit more detail into the tie-break scenarios for the teams that could still factor into SA’s seeding.



Because Dex's utterly brilliant thread, chart, and updates aren't enough. We all needed to read a text version... from you.

[Chinook]

Because Dex's utterly brilliant thread, chart, and updates aren't enough. We all needed to read a text version... from you.

The only common information is the H2H records. The lower tie-breaks that matter against teams like Portland and could matter against Houston and three-team scenarios tend not to be covered by magic numbers. I've done my turn doing this thread in previous years, and I know how deep the rabbit hole of playoff scenarios can go. Dex knows I'm not stepping on his toes by talking about the next level of tie-breaks. It will explain how magic numbers randomly change when there isn't an obvious reason for them.

[Chinook]

Hats off.

How long did it take you to prepare and make this post? Appreciated much.

It should have just been a short little update. I started typing to just mentioned how SA probably has the tie-break against the Blazers locked up, but I kept adding teams. Then I got to Utah and realized how big of a CF those tie-breaks are. Then I just decided to cover the entire conference.

[Drom John]

Five Thirty Eight projects the Spurs to be 7th, >99% in the playoffs, <1% winning the Championship.

59 Warriors
54 Nuggets
52 Rockets
50 Jazz, Thunder, Trail Blazers
47 Spurs
46 Clippers
___
39 Kings

Five Thirty Eight really likes the Jazz' schedule.

Spurs Scedule
32% Warriors -5
69% Heat +5
17% @Rockets -10
23% @Celtics -7.5
40% @Hornets -2.5
87% Cavaliers +11.5
78% Kings +7.5
83% Hawks +9.5
17% @Nuggets -9.5 [2nd of a back to back in Denver is historically the worst road disadvantage in the NBA]
43% @Wizards -1.5
69% @Cavaliers -1.5
78% Mavericks -8

[monty4329]

It should have just been a short little update. I started typing to just mentioned how SA probably has the tie-break against the Blazers locked up, but I kept adding teams. Then I got to Utah and realized how big of a CF those tie-breaks are. Then I just decided to cover the entire conference.

That's my wife's attitude towards shopping for shoes and handbags

[Drom John]

That's my wife's attitude towards shopping for shoes and handbags

For my SWMBO, cookbooks and quilt blocks.

[Dex]

The only common information is the H2H records. The lower tie-breaks that matter against teams like Portland and could matter against Houston and three-team scenarios tend not to be covered by magic numbers. I've done my turn doing this thread in previous years, and I know how deep the rabbit hole of playoff scenarios can go. Dex knows I'm not stepping on his toes by talking about the next level of tie-breaks. It will explain how magic numbers randomly change when there isn't an obvious reason for them.

No toes stepped on. I'm all for anything that encourages actual positive basketball discussion around here, and your input is always appreciated.

Things definitely get a lot more complicated once you start looking at multi-way tiebreakers.

[monty4329]

For my SWMBO, cookbooks and quilt blocks.

I like her budget then....

[Dex]

https://i.imgur.com/fZjxwAN.png

The Spurs continue to flex their muscles at home. With another impressive win over Portland, they are now running on their longest win streak in two seasons.

That run, however, faces a serious test on Monday when the Warriors come into town. Durant will still probably sidelined with his ankle injury...meaning Golden State will have to settle for rolling out only four All-Star caliber players. San Antonio still has a chip on its shoulder against the Warriors, so lets hope the AT&T Center comes loud and rowdy.

Either way, this weekend has been very positive for the Spurs playoff hopes, and the charts reflect that. The Pelicans, Mavericks, and Grizzlies are now officially out of the Magic Number race, and the boys in Black & Silver have gained serious ground on the Kings. It would pretty much take an absolute collapse to not make the playoffs at this point, so the focus should really be on positioning.

Looks like SPAM is back on the menu, boys and girls.

[YGWHI]

OC has the toughest remaining schedule of any top 8 team in the West at 2.23 (though one of their tough games is the season finale @MIL, and the Bucks should have the overall #1 seed locked up by then)
OKC last two games against Rockets and Bucks.

We know coach Bud will rest his guys in that game esp after Brogdon injury but I wonder if D'Antoni will overplay his starters again..Tonight Harden has a cervical strain and still playing vs Wolves.

[YGWHI]

Unfortunately for Blazers CJ injury could drop them to #5/6...There is still chance to get #4, Spurs!

[monty4329]

It should have just been a short little update. I started typing to just mentioned how SA probably has the tie-break against the Blazers locked up, but I kept adding teams. Then I got to Utah and realized how big of a CF those tie-breaks are. Then I just decided to cover the entire conference.

Looking at the remaining schedule, I am afraid you'll might want to have a look at what happens in a 4-teams tie at 49....

[MannyIsGod]

The Nuggets getting the 1 seed and the Spurs getting a 4 seed is the dream scenario where the Spurs end up with a decent shot at the WCF.

[ZeusWillJudge]

The Nuggets getting the 1 seed and the Spurs getting a 4 seed is the dream scenario where the Spurs end up with a decent shot at the WCF.


I wouldn't have believed it 9 games ago, but it's a real possibility. This team is really playing together well. We were looking at the upcoming 10 game stretch wondering if they could go 5-5.

[BillMc]

The Nuggets getting the 1 seed and the Spurs getting a 4 seed is the dream scenario where the Spurs end up with a decent shot at the WCF.

Yeah, that's what I'm really hoping for. Homecourt round 1 and avoid Warriors to WCF

[phxspurfan]

West standings:

https://i.ibb.co/Vvt2C7w/wstandings.png

A conservative look at the Spurs' remaining schedule, where they lose against GSW, @HOU, @BOS, @DEN, closes their season with a 9-4 record from their remaining games. They would have a 49-33 record, and a solid shot at the 5th seed, if OKC were to falter on their 4th-hardest-in-the-NBA schedule remaining (link (http://www.tankathon.com/remaining_schedule_strength)). But they would also be fighting off the Jazz, who sport the league's easiest schedule for the remaining month.

Sat 3/16 - vs. POR (Spurs on home/home B2B, POR on away/away B2B) - W (toss-up)
Mon 3/18 - vs. GSW - L
Wed 3/20 - vs. MIA - W
Fri 3/22 - @ HOU - L
Sun 3/24 - @ BOS (BOS on away/home B2B) - L
Tue 3/26 - @ CHA - W
Thu 3/28 - vs. CLE (Manu jersey retirement ceremony) - W
Sun 3/31 - vs. SAC (Kings on away/away B2B) - W
Tue 4/2 - vs. ATL - W
Wed 4/3 - @ DEN (Spurs on home-away B2B, DEN on away/home B2B) - L (may be a toss-up as DEN will have just played GSW, and if GSW rested, DEN wins easily. If GSW didn't rest, DEN will be tired)
Fri 3/5 - @ WAS - W
Sun 4/7 - @ CLE - W
Wed 4/10 - vs. DAL (DAL on home/away B2B) - W

With these Ws over the Warriors and Blazers, even with a conservative projection with the remaining games, the Spurs could reach 50 wins, at 50-32. They would have to go 8-3 the rest of the way, assuming losses @HOU, @BOS, @DEN and winning the games they should win.

Wed 3/20 - vs. MIA - W
Fri 3/22 - @ HOU - L
Sun 3/24 - @ BOS (BOS on away/home B2B) - L
Tue 3/26 - @ CHA - W
Thu 3/28 - vs. CLE (Manu jersey retirement ceremony) - W
Sun 3/31 - vs. SAC (Kings on away/away B2B) - W
Tue 4/2 - vs. ATL - W
Wed 4/3 - @ DEN (Spurs on home-away B2B, DEN on away/home B2B) - L (may be a toss-up as DEN will have just played GSW, and if GSW rested, DEN wins easily. If GSW didn't rest, DEN will be tired)
Fri 3/5 - @ WAS - W
Sun 4/7 - @ CLE - W
Wed 4/10 - vs. DAL (DAL on home/away B2B) - W

[YGWHI]

A perfect night. OKC lost. Spurs beat Warriors. Denver won. Just a Blazers loss vs Pacers would make this even better...

[monty4329]

If we go 1-2 on the three games trip we have a strong chance for 5th.

4th place is out of the question, Utah will most probably finish above the Spurs

[Dex]

The Spurs continued to roll on Monday with a big win over the vaunted Warriors. Golden State was without two key contributors in Boogie and Iggy, but Kevin Durant did return from injury to try to spoil San Antonio's party. Any way you shape it, this was a very solid win for the Spurs.

Derrick White was supremely effective at harassing Klay Thompson, who finished with only 14 points (most of which came on a late flurry of threes when the Warriors were trying to mount one final comeback effort). The unlikely defensive duo of Forbes and DeRozan made Curry work hard for 25 points on 25 shots. Everyone else chipped in where they needed to, and the Spurs walked away with a ninth straight victory which secured another season series and now has the Western Conference standings looking very interesting.

The Thunder's loss now has San Antonio leading a tie for 5th place. The Nuggets' win has them tied for 1st place with Golden State. Only 3.5 games separate the 3rd seed from the 8th seed. As you can imagine, there will be a lot of jockeying over the next three weeks as teams try to position themselves for the playoffs and stay out of the Warriors' crosshairs.

https://i.imgur.com/JHRuxK5.png

Upcoming games this week:

March 20th - MIA @ SAS - The Spurs will close their homestand against Miami on Wesnesday night. The Heat are currently scrapping to hold onto 8th place in the East, and are fresh off an impressive victory against a Thunder team that was without Russell Westbrook since he can't seem to keep his mouth shut. It would be easy to overlook this game with two big road matchups looming - and that would be a big mistake.

March 22nd - SAS @ HOU - San Antonio will head up I-10 to take on the surging Rockets. As much as I dislike Houston (mostly due to Harden and Paul's antics), one has to be impressed with the way they withstood injuries to CP3 and Capella and still managed to rise in the rankings. Like the Spurs, they are 9-1 in their last ten and don't seem to show any signs of slowing down. Still, a victory here would pull them deeper into the scrum in the middle of the standings, so lets hope Pop can continue to dial up D'Antoni's number.

March 24th - SAS @ BOS - The Spurs will then park their cars in Harvard Yard to take on the enigmatic Celtics. At the start of the season, everyone seemed to have the East pegged to go through Boston, but the Celt's have spent most of the year getting in their own way. They certainly boast one of the most talented rosters in the NBA, but the team has not been able to gel as expected and recreate that magic that got them into the Eastern Conference Finals last season. Let's hope that we get to see the bad version of the Celtics and pull out another wicked W on the road.

[Kobe'sAchilles]

The good news is that we are guaranteed playoffs (realistically) for 22 years in a row :hat

[Chinook]

The Houston game is huge. A win pretty much puts SA in the driver's seat for the tie-break with Houston, and winning the Southwest would give them the "zeroth" tie-break over every team but Denver and GS. Incidentally enough, they already own the tie-break over GS just in case they suffer a horrible collapse, and they have a legit chance to get it against Denver next month. They'd also get the three-way tie-break against GS and Denver with that win, making it possible for SA to still finish the season with the tie-breaks against every team in the conference.

[emanueldavidginobili]

Like I've been saying all year I don't believe in this team until this team beats decent teams on the road. this team is a completely different team when they're on the road. Granted they beat top teams on this winning streak Bucks, Blazers, Warriors, Thunder, Nuggets which is really impressive. But this team is a great while playing at home, 3rd best home record in the entire league.

On the nine game winning streak 7 of them have been at home and the two wins on the road were against the Hawks and the Mavericks. Last road game they won verse a playoff team against any conference was verse the Clippers on December 29!!! The Spurs have been playing better no doubt about that but I am still not a believer even with this winning streak. I've seen it way to many times this season where they string together a couple home games in a row just to go on the road and blow it.

We will see though Pau leaving has helped, Jakob inserted into the starting line up is also working and this team is healthy so we will see what will happen.

[Chinook]

Like I've been saying all year I don't believe in this team until this team beats decent teams on the road. this team is a completely different team when they're on the road. Granted they beat top teams on this winning streak Bucks, Blazers, Warriors, Thunder, Nuggets which is really impressive. But this team is a great while playing at home, 3rd best home record in the entire league.

On the nine game winning streak 7 of them have been at home and the two wins on the road were against the Hawks and the Mavericks. Last road game they won verse a playoff team against any conference was verse the Clippers on December 29!!! The Spurs have been playing better no doubt about that but I am still not a believer even with this winning streak. I've seen it way to many times this season where they string together a couple home games in a row just to go on the road and blow it.

We will see though Pau leaving has helped, Jakob inserted into the starting line up is also working and this team is healthy so we will see what will happen.

The average NBA away record this year is .403. The Spurs' record is .371. They're an average road team after years of being elite. Seeing as teams play almost half their games in the playoffs at home no matter what, the Spurs being a great home team will always be relevant. All it would take is stealing one road game, and the Spurs have beaten Indy in IN and almost/should have won their road games against MKE, TOR, DEN, PHL and OKC. Just one clever wrinkle could be enough to steal a game against one of the top teams, which would give the Spurs HCA with their incredible home performance. A team like Denver is just slightly above .500 on the road, and that's with their winning an absurd percentage of their close games. The Spurs don't have to be some great road team to take series against them, OKC and Portland.

[GusT15]

The average NBA away record this year is .403. The Spurs' record is .371. They're an average road team after years of being elite. Seeing as teams play almost half their games in the playoffs at home no matter what, the Spurs being a great home team will always be relevant. All it would take is stealing one road game, and the Spurs have beaten Indy in IN and almost/should have won their road games against MKE, TOR, DEN, PHL and OKC. Just one clever wrinkle could be enough to steal a game against one of the top teams, which would give the Spurs HCA with their incredible home performance. A team like Denver is just slightly above .500 on the road, and that's with their winning an absurd percentage of their close games. The Spurs don't have to be some great road team to take series against them, OKC and Portland.

We were also up by 1 in Houston with 2 minutes to go in the 4th and made terrible desicions on offense for two minutes straight and lost by 7.

[Dverde]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D2Bmk4oWsAEQ1Xo.jpg

[sasaint]

Unfortunately for Blazers CJ injury could drop them to #5/6...There is still chance to get #4, Spurs!

That seems very unlikely to me. But I still say anything below 6 would be a disappointment at this point.

[Arcadian]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D2Bmk4oWsAEQ1Xo.jpg

:toast

The world when the Lakers last had a losing record: Look around. :lol

[rascal]

If we go 1-2 on the three games trip we have a strong chance for 5th.

4th place is out of the question, Utah will most probably finish above the Spurs

Spurs only have 3 hard games the rest of the way. They will stay ahead of Utah.

[emanueldavidginobili]

The average NBA away record this year is .403. The Spurs' record is .371. They're an average road team after years of being elite. Seeing as teams play almost half their games in the playoffs at home no matter what, the Spurs being a great home team will always be relevant. All it would take is stealing one road game, and the Spurs have beaten Indy in IN and almost/should have won their road games against MKE, TOR, DEN, PHL and OKC. Just one clever wrinkle could be enough to steal a game against one of the top teams, which would give the Spurs HCA with their incredible home performance. A team like Denver is just slightly above .500 on the road, and that's with their winning an absurd percentage of their close games. The Spurs don't have to be some great road team to take series against them, OKC and Portland.

I agree with you, but its the way they play on the road. The complete joke jobs and the terrible starts to the games. They play completely different it seems.

[TDomination]

:toast

The world when the Lakers last had a losing record: Look around. :lol
HAHAHA LOVE IT

[Dex]

Oh, are we shitting on the Lakers in here?

https://i.imgur.com/H7qMc8w.png

[Seventyniner]

Oh, are we shitting on the Lakers in here?

There's no bad place for that!

I had no idea they were even worse than the Knicks over that span, god damn.

[monty4329]

Oh, are we shitting on the Lakers in here?

https://i.imgur.com/H7qMc8w.png

Does this mean it is only fair that they get Zion?....

[exstatic]

Magic Johnson had a HOF career playing basketball. He also started a successful minority owned theater chain in LA.

He's failed at everything else he's tried in life.

[bluebellmaniac]

We looking good over last 6+ yrs....



San Antonio Spurs Record









Season
W
L
PCT


18-19
42
29
0.592


17-18
47
35
0.573


16-17
61
21
0.744


15-16
67
15
0.817


14-15
55
27
0.671


13-14
62
20
0.756


12-13
58
24
0.707








Total
392
171
0.696

[Dex]

Does this mean it is only fair that they get Zion?....

I will still be yelling collusion if that happens.

Even so, Magic would probably trade him for a bag of magic beans.

[timvp]

:toast

The world when the Lakers last had a losing record: Look around. :lol

:lol

[Seventyniner]

We looking good over last 6+ yrs....



San Antonio Spurs Record









Season
W
L
PCT


18-19
42
29
0.592


17-18
47
35
0.573


16-17
61
21
0.744


15-16
67
15
0.817


14-15
55
27
0.671


13-14
62
20
0.756


12-13
58
24
0.707








Total
392
171
0.696




It's even sicker if you add in 10-11 and 11-12, while taking out 17-18 and 18-19. You get a win% of 0.742 (an average of 60.8 wins over an 82-game season) over a 7-year stretch.

If the Warriors win out this season, their 7-year average would be 0.737. Those (relatively) poor 12-13 and 13-14 seasons will roll of soon, but there's no guarantee all their FAs will stick around either.

[superbigtime]

We looking good over last 6+ yrs....



San Antonio Spurs Record










Season

W

L

PCT



18-19

42

29

0.592



17-18

47

35

0.573



16-17

61

21

0.744



15-16

67

15

0.817



14-15

55

27

0.671



13-14

62

20

0.756



12-13

58

24

0.707









Total

392

171

0.696





I remember in past seasons thinking Spurs were doing poorly when under .750. Just another greedy spoiled Spurs homer.

[Barfunk]

I remember in past seasons thinking Spurs were doing poorly when under .750. Just another greedy spoiled Spurs homer.

Yes. Don't get me wrong, I get upset when the Spurs string together a bunch of games where they are playing and losing like trash, but I also was saying stuff like "Let's pump the brakes a bit. Look at a team like the Lakers, who arguably have more overall talent, and are shitting the bed still." You have to have some perspective. But it's definitely ok to be an angry homer from time to time. It shows "passion".

[spurraider21]

I remember in past seasons thinking Spurs were doing poorly when under .750. Just another greedy spoiled Spurs homer.
i would always look for them to hit the magic .732 because thats what put them on pace for 60 wins

[Mr. Body]

Magic Johnson had a HOF career playing basketball. He also started a successful minority owned theater chain in LA.

He's failed at everything else he's tried in life.

We should all be so lucky.

[superbigtime]

Yes. Don't get me wrong, I get upset when the Spurs string together a bunch of games where they are playing and losing like trash, but I also was saying stuff like "Let's pump the brakes a bit. Look at a team like the Lakers, who arguably have more overall talent, and are shitting the bed still." You have to have some perspective. But it's definitely ok to be an angry homer from time to time. It shows "passion".

Or as my wife says "obsession." haha
:bobo

[superbigtime]

i would always look for them to hit the magic .732 because thats what put them on pace for 60 wins

hopefully we see that # next season. Current team looks poised though.

[Spur|n|Austin]

Mavs win against Portland would be nice, Raps beating the Thunder would be solid as well.

[BillMc]

We should all be so lucky.

Truth.

Dude beat both Larry Bird and HIV, those are two tough customers.

That said, I want the LeBron-era Lakers to be a dumpster fire.

[phxspurfan]

Jazz remaining schedule (our competitor for 6/5 seed):

@ ATL
@ CHI
vs PHX
vs LAL
vs WAS
vs CHA
@ PHX
vs SAC
@ LAL
vs DEN
@ LAC

so basically only *maybe* 2 losses in their next 11 games, if they keep it up. In other words, welcome to the 6th/7th seed, bitches

[8FOR!3]

Jazz remaining schedule (our competitor for 6/5 seed):

@ ATL
@ CHI
vs PHX
vs LAL
vs WAS
vs CHA
@ PHX
vs SAC
@ LAL
vs DEN
@ LAC

so basically only *maybe* 2 losses in their next 11 games, if they keep it up. In other words, welcome to the 6th/7th seed, bitches

They play games for a reason. They might not lose a game, they might lose 5

[Mugen]

Going back to last season and including playoffs, the Spurs are 27-51 on the road, basically a .35 winning %...

Wow tbh. Those are lottery team numbers...

Obviously loser players like Patty, Pau, and Bryn getting heavy minutes is a big reason but lot of that record falls on failing to get the team properly prepared when the games aren't easy....

[Dex]

Well, I guess the magic couldn't last forever. The Spurs 9-game winning streak ended in disappointing fashion against the easiest matchup of the week.

Granted, the Spurs did mount a late comeback...and if it weren't for Wade's miracle 50-footer, they may have gotten over the hump. Still, with two rough road games looming, the Spurs have a tough task ahead if they want to avoid a 3-game losing streak and a spring date with Golden State (hey, that rhymes!).

https://i.imgur.com/z4yvn01.png

In better news, the Lakers are now officially out of the Magic Number race. Let's all take a moment to point and laugh. Meanwhile, the Timberwolves are hanging on by a thread, and the Kings are now a solid 7 games back on the pack.

There are a number of matchups that could help the Spurs tonight, but I don't expect much luck. The Wolves, Nuggets, Jazz, and Warriors all have games against Eastern conference fodder, and the Kings host the tanking Mavericks.

Still, there is a reason they play the games, so we will keep our fingers crossed.

[tbdog]

Jazz lost to Hawks.

[Dex]

Jazz lost to Hawks.

:lol Jazz. That's what they get for having Karl Malone.

I'll update the chart soon, but...that means we currently have a 4-way tie at 42-30. :vomit:

Coukd be another one of those wacky tie-breaker seasons.

[ZeusWillJudge]

:lol Jazz. That's what they get for having Karl Malone.


Wow. You have to admire a guy who can hold a grudge that long. :lol

[monty4329]

:lol Jazz. That's what they get for having Karl Malone.

I'll update the chart soon, but...that means we currently have a 4-way tie at 42-30. :vomit:

Coukd be another one of those wacky tie-breaker seasons.

We are all waiting for the 4-tie tiebreaks explanation...

[cool cat]

Magic Johnson had a HOF career playing basketball. He also started a successful minority owned theater chain in LA.

He's failed at everything else he's tried in life.
So true, he failed at making a son too.

[timtonymanu]

Going back to last season and including playoffs, the Spurs are 27-51 on the road, basically a .35 winning %...

Wow tbh. Those are lottery team numbers...

Obviously loser players like Patty, Pau, and Bryn getting heavy minutes is a big reason but lot of that record falls on failing to get the team properly prepared when the games aren't easy....

This is the only worthy take in this thread so far

[monty4329]

It seems more and more that the 7-8th seed will be between OKC and SA.

Probably all will be decided on last day of the season. Funny how Utah@Clips might be a game both will want to lose.

[ernest787]

I looked at the schedules this morning and it looks like the Clips have the toughest on paper. A lot will depend on if some of the top teams end up sitting players or not down the stretch.

[spurs1990]

Oh, are we shitting on the Lakers in here?

https://i.imgur.com/H7qMc8w.png

But muh 16 championships

[Dex]

After a mini-meltdown in Houston (aided by a charge drawn by James Harden's beard), the Spurs got back on track in Boston with a thorough dismantling of the Celtics. LaMarcus was in rare form and continues to show why he is this team's MVP. He probably would've dropped another 50-spot if Pop didn't pull the plug on him with a minute and a half to go.

Either way, it was a much needed win to stop the bleeding after a two-game losing streak. Considering the way the Spurs have played on the road, I don't think anyone would have been surprised by going 1-2 through the MIA-HOU-BOS stretch...they just found a creative way of doing it.

Also, this is a little late, but it's still fun to say...

:lol THE LOS ANGELES LAKERS HAVE BEEN ELIMINATED FROM PLAYOFF CONTENTION!!! :lol

Lebron's playoff hopes didn't even make it into April. What a shame.

https://i.imgur.com/klAJ8DJ.png

Upcoming games this week:

March 26th - SAS @ CHA - The Spurs will try to wrap up their three-game road trip against the Fiery Francophile and Friends. The Hornets are still scrapping for a playoff spot, and have won three straight including an impressive win over the Toronto Raptors. Interestingly enough, Parker was a DNP-CD in that contest, so it's hard to say how much he will line up against his old club. Spurs just need to stay focused and remember the gift they gave to Tony when he made his comeback to San Antonio. It is time to repay the favor.

March 28th - CLE @ SAS - In what will be known as Manu's Night, the Spurs actually have to play a basketball game before they enshrine the Argentinean legend in the rafters of the AT&T Center. Fortunately, the Cavaliers are pretty much hot garbage. Along with the Knicks and Suns, they are taking tanking to levels that would make Sam Hinkie blush. Still, the Spurs need to be careful not to look forward to the post-game ceremony and take care of business. A loss would certainly sully an evening which is supposed to be all about Ginobili.

March 31st - SAC @ SAS - In terms of Magic Numbers, this game has huge implications. If the Spurs can sweep the week, they can officially stamp their ticket into the playoffs. Despite their easier schedule, the Kings have only managed to go 4-6 over their last ten and their postseason hopes are definitely on life support. Hopefully, San Antonio can step on their throat and start focusing on playoff position.

[ZeusWillJudge]

The Spurs have gotten through all but one of their toughest remaining opponents. They now have the second easiest remaining schedule. Kind of sick that we're watching things like that to figure out whether they'll be 8,7, or 6.

[monty4329]

The Spurs have gotten through all but one of their toughest remaining opponents. They now have the second easiest remaining schedule. Kind of sick that we're watching things like that to figure out whether they'll be 8,7, or 6.

6th is already out of the equation

[exstatic]

6th is already out of the equation

Not true. Did you not notice that we were 6th in the 4 way tie scrum that happened a week or so ago? Long odds, but still on the table.

[monty4329]

Not true. Did you not notice that we were 6th in the 4 way tie scrum that happened a week or so ago? Long odds, but still on the table.

Technically it is still in place, but in reality there is almost zero chance. Also, that 4-way tie--break outcome would anyway change as Clips and Utah play each other in their last game. A 3 or 4-way tie where we end up 6th would mean we win at least 49 games, I guess.

But I am certainly not considering the odd resting of players etc...some results will be totally unpredictable but might end up evening out, so it might happen we make 6th but it is so remote....

[Ed Helicopter Jones]

Also, this is a little late, but it's still fun to say...

:lol THE LOS ANGELES LAKERS HAVE BEEN ELIMINATED FROM PLAYOFF CONTENTION!!! :lol





My least favorite team, and one of the league's biggest self-promoters both sitting out the post season does bring a smile to my face.

[exstatic]

Technically it is still in place, but in reality there is almost zero chance. Also, that 4-way tie--break outcome would anyway change as Clips and Utah play each other in their last game. A 3 or 4-way tie where we end up 6th would mean we win at least 49 games, I guess.

But I am certainly not considering the odd resting of players etc...some results will be totally unpredictable but might end up evening out, so it might happen we make 6th but it is so remote....

I'm gonna go Chinook here, and point out that is not what you said earlier. I wouldn't have responded, had you qualified it as almost no chance.

[ZeusWillJudge]

6th is already out of the equation


Why, exactly? The Spurs are 1 loss back of OKC, tied in the W column, and the Spurs own the tiebreaker. With 8 games left. How is that out of the equation?

Not that I really give a rat fuck about 6th seed over 8th seed. Frankly, if they just have to make the playoffs, I'd as soon they squeak in and get the highest pick possible. I haven't checked all the 4-way tiebreakers, but I don't see 6 being out of the question right now.

[phxspurfan]

Sat 3/16 - vs. POR - W
Mon 3/18 - vs. GSW - W
Wed 3/20 - vs. MIA - L
Fri 3/22 - @ HOU - L
Sun 3/24 - @ BOS (BOS on away/home B2B) - W

================================================

Tue 3/26 - @ CHA - W
Thu 3/28 - vs. CLE (Manu jersey retirement ceremony) - W
Sun 3/31 - vs. SAC (Kings on away/away B2B) - W
Tue 4/2 - vs. ATL - W
Wed 4/3 - @ DEN (Spurs on home-away B2B, DEN on away/home B2B) - L (may be a toss-up as DEN will have just played GSW, and if GSW rested, DEN wins easily. If GSW didn't rest, DEN will be tired)
Fri 3/5 - @ WAS - W
Sun 4/7 - @ CLE - W
Wed 4/10 - vs. DAL (DAL on home/away B2B) - W

Spurs now at 43-31. If this holds, Spurs will finish the season at 50-32. But I assume Spurs will drop 1 or 2 of these gimmies, so more likely 48 or 49 wins. Barring a ridiculous skid.

[spurraider21]

Going back to last season and including playoffs, the Spurs are 27-51 on the road, basically a .35 winning %...

Wow tbh. Those are lottery team numbers...

Obviously loser players like Patty, Pau, and Bryn getting heavy minutes is a big reason but lot of that record falls on failing to get the team properly prepared when the games aren't easy....
there isn't a single lottery-bound team that has a road record as good as or better than the spurs this season

[HWoodNixon]

Why, exactly? The Spurs are 1 loss back of OKC, tied in the W column, and the Spurs own the tiebreaker. With 8 games left. How is that out of the equation?

Not that I really give a rat fuck about 6th seed over 8th seed. Frankly, if they just have to make the playoffs, I'd as soon they squeak in and get the highest pick possible. I haven't checked all the 4-way tiebreakers, but I don't see 6 being out of the question right now.

okc losing to Memphis

[bluebellmaniac]

Going back to last season and including playoffs, the Spurs are 27-51 on the road, basically a .35 winning %...

Wow tbh. Those are lottery team numbers...

Obviously loser players like Patty, Pau, and Bryn getting heavy minutes is a big reason but lot of that record falls on failing to get the team properly prepared when the games aren't easy....

So the premise is that a team having played the equivalent of all 82+ games on the road would have a bad record....

Hmmmm

[monty4329]

I'm gonna go Chinook here, and point out that is not what you said earlier. I wouldn't have responded, had you qualified it as almost no chance.

Do we go semantics here? Technically we can win the Finals. It is still out of the equation, basketballwise. Unless of course you wish one or two more injuries to Blazers players, then yes, we can still make 6th.

Happy if I'm wrong, anyway

[monty4329]

Why, exactly? The Spurs are 1 loss back of OKC, tied in the W column, and the Spurs own the tiebreaker. With 8 games left. How is that out of the equation?

Not that I really give a rat fuck about 6th seed over 8th seed. Frankly, if they just have to make the playoffs, I'd as soon they squeak in and get the highest pick possible. I haven't checked all the 4-way tiebreakers, but I don't see 6 being out of the question right now.


Even winning the Finals is still possible. I consider it out of the equation though.

I'll be happy to eat crow nonetheless.

[cjw]

Spurs will be favored in all but one of their remaining games. HCA in round one isn’t out of reach, but Utah has a pretty light schedule.


I’d guess the standings end up as GSW-Den-Hou-Uta-Por-SA-LAC-OKC.




Houston (27 losses)
@ Mil
Den
Sac
@ Sac
@ LAC (BTB)
NYK
Phx
@ OKC
Own tiebreaker with Spurs, so +4.5


Portland (27 losses)
@ Chi
@ Atl
@ Det (BTB)
@ Mil
Mem
@ Den
Den
@ LAL
Sac (BTB)
Tied H2H but Spurs likely win tiebreaker on conference record (+2 in loss column), so need to make up four games somehow


Utah (30 losses)
LAL
Was
Cha
@ Phx
Sac
@ LAL
Den
@ LAC (BTB)
Own tiebreaker with Spurs, so +1.5


Los Angeles (30 losses)
@ Min
@ Mil
Cle
Mem (BTB)
Hou
LAL
@ GS
Uta
Tied H2H but Spurs likely win tiebreaker on conference record (+1 in loss column and have played more games)


San Antonio (31 losses)
@ Cha
Cle
Sac
Atl
@ Den (BTB, likely loss)
@ Was
@ Cle
Dal


Oklahoma City (31 losses)
Ind
Den
Dal
LAL
Det
@ Min
Hou
@ Mil (BTB, but likely will have 1 seed locked up)
Spurs won tiebreaker, so -0.5

[monty4329]

Why, exactly? The Spurs are 1 loss back of OKC, tied in the W column, and the Spurs own the tiebreaker. With 8 games left. How is that out of the equation?

Not that I really give a rat fuck about 6th seed over 8th seed. Frankly, if they just have to make the playoffs, I'd as soon they squeak in and get the highest pick possible. I haven't checked all the 4-way tiebreakers, but I don't see 6 being out of the question right now.

I guess it is now...I would have been happy to eat crow though

[Ed Helicopter Jones]

I think 7 or 8 is most likely. Denver will likely be two, and I’d like that matchup just to face someone different for once. Our fate feels sealed whenever we square off with GSW being outmanned as we have these last 3 years.

[rascal]

So the will get beat by Houston instead of GS. Doesn't make any difference only the Spurs may miss their draft pick target by one or two spots.

[rascal]

Do we go semantics here? Technically we can win the Finals. It is still out of the equation, basketballwise. Unless of course you wish one or two more injuries to Blazers players, then yes, we can still make 6th.

Happy if I'm wrong, anyway

Every playoff opponent in the west and the eastern champ would have to suffer key injuries for the Spurs to ring.

[Mugen]

Props to Utah tbh...lost their star SF the year before last and still managed to win a playoff series....

No all-stars this year and they should still manage to finish in 5th or 6th, no excuses when Mitchell was off to start the year and they've had some injury woes as well.....

They are lucky to have a great coach that still prioritizes defense and puts their guys in a position to win :toast

[Dex]

What a beautiful night celebrating Manu. Obviously, scraping by the Cavaliers isn't ideal...but it made the 4th quarter all that much more exciting, at least.

The crowd was hype and amazing throughout the game and ceremony...the hosts could barely even get their speeches in throughout all the cheers. One of the moments that was most illustrative of the impact of Manu, though....was when the Spurs honored him by playing the Argentine national anthem before the game, and seemingly half of the crowd was singing along. His influence spread far and wide.

Just seeing the Big 3 on the same court again gave me chills. We are all lucky to have witnessed true greatness in basketball.

https://i.imgur.com/MjcdvXM.png

A Spurs victory and a Kings loss means one more win and we are in.

[hoopdreams11]

alright spurs officially in

[ace3g]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D28jNwoX0AAEaZd.jpg:large

[benefactor]

22. Man what a ride.

[MannyIsGod]

22. Man what a ride.

Impressive AF. Hopefully we can get a series win this year too.


Barring injuries that streak should grow too. They are only going to get better next year.

[BillMc]

Congrats to the Spurs. 22. wow.

Now, lets lock that 7 or better in the seedings.

[MoSpur02]

Best case scenario is the 5th seed and Portland stays in the 4th seed due to Nurkic's injury. Worst case scenario is end up in the 8th seed or 6th seed and play Golden State or Houston. Staying in the 7th seed means playing Denver, which isn't all too bad, but going to be tough.

[Dex]

I'm a little late to my own party here, but...

THE SAN ANTONIO SPURS HAVE CLINCHED A PLAYOFF BERTH!!!

https://i.imgur.com/jvs6ytw.png

With some help from the Rockets, the Spurs have clinched the playoffs on their day off yesterday. Gotta love that Texas hospitality.

Their 22nd consecutive playoff appearance ties the record for most consecutive playoff trips in NBA history. However, their work is far from over.

I do think this team believes it can compete with anybody in the NBA in a seven-game series. I also think that they probably don't want to test that theory against Golden State in the first round for a third consecutive year.

The Spurs currently sit in 7th place (thanks to the tiebreaker against the Thunder) and would lineup against the Nuggets if the playoffs started today. However, it's possible Denver and Golden State flip-flop in the one-two spot over the next couple weeks...so the safe play would be to try to rise to 6th. San Antonio is only 1.5 games behind the Clippers, but there are also only a handful of games remaining...not impossible, but also definitely not the time to rest on your playoff laurels if you truly want to ensure a better first-round matchup.

Either way, much credit is deserved for Pop and this group for overcoming an injury riddled season and surviving the gauntlet that is the Western Conference. As we've seen (for better or worse)....anything can happen in the playoffs.

[venitian navigator]

Congrats to Spurs and Pop!!! I for one was for the tanking strategy at a certain point of the season...'cause it looked to me as the only possible outcome considering injuries and the poor game showed by the team...the point is that it looked to me (and a lot of other Spurs fans) like all signs were showing we had no play offs chances...So the goal we achieved is something worth any possible joy from a real Spur fan. Pop, the players and the organization have been constant and reliable to the end despite very very bad circumstances.
That's, at least, a winning colture we have to be proud of...difficult to ask for more in the situation we were in...

[cjw]

Lakers beating Clippers means the Spurs will be seeded ahead of LAC if they finish with the same record. They split season series but would have conference tiebreaker (both at 22 losses, but Clippers would have to lose at least one more with two conference games left). Those games are @GS and home against Utah. Neither will be easy.

In a three way tie between OKC-LAC-SA, it would go to H2H record. Spurs are 4-3, Clippers are 4-4 and Thunder are 3-4. That would mean the six seed.

Houston will be three seed if it wins out (PHX and OKC). But Portland has tiebreaker and is one back in loss column with DEN, @LAL and SAC left.

[monty4329]

Lakers beating Clippers means the Spurs will be seeded ahead of LAC if they finish with the same record. They split season series but would have conference tiebreaker (both at 22 losses, but Clippers would have to lose at least one more with two conference games left). Those games are @GS and home against Utah. Neither will be easy.

In a three way tie between OKC-LAC-SA, it would go to H2H record. Spurs are 4-3, Clippers are 4-4 and Thunder are 3-4. That would mean the six seed.

Houston will be three seed if it wins out (PHX and OKC (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=43121)). But Portland has tiebreaker and is one back in loss column with DEN, @LAL and SAC left.

It looks like HOU@OKC will determine 6-7 and maybe 8th place, HOU will be probably able to choose its opponent for first round.
If Clips go 1-1 we may make 6th or 7h depending on HOU.
I suppose they will want to play LA in the first round so they might want to beat OKC and push them to 8th.
Provided we go 2-0.

[GusT15]

https://twitter.com/Baxter/status/1114405806256967681

Do it Doc! You know you want to play the Warriors!

[TDomination]

Spurs better win out

[JPB]

It looks like HOU@OKC will determine 6-7 and maybe 8th place, HOU will be probably able to choose its opponent for first round.
If Clips go 1-1 we may make 6th or 7h depending on HOU.
I suppose they will want to play LA in the first round so they might want to beat OKC and push them to 8th.
Provided we go 2-0.

Keep in mind HOU can still grab 2nd seed and then HCA in the second round, they have incentives to win. DO'nt know HOU-DEN tiebreaker but nougats are playing both in Utah and Portland in their last three (then Minny) the might finish tied with the rockettes at 28 losses.

[monty4329]

Keep in mind HOU can still grab 2nd seed and then HCA in the second round, they have incentives to win. DO'nt know HOU-DEN tiebreaker but nougats are playing both in Utah and Portland in their last three (then Minny) the might finish tied with the rockettes at 28 losses.

That's what I mean. HOU may be in the position to choose weather be #2 or #3, and who will be #6 or #7 maybe even #8 if they can determine a three way-tie. It all pivots around HOU@OKC.

[pookenstein]

Keep in mind HOU can still grab 2nd seed and then HCA in the second round, they have incentives to win. DO'nt know HOU-DEN tiebreaker but nougats are playing both in Utah and Portland in their last three (then Minny) the might finish tied with the rockettes at 28 losses.

Houston won the season series against Denver. 3-1.

[Dex]

After getting beat down in an unsurprising loss in the Mile High City, the Spurs picked themselves off the mat and got back to their winning ways in Washington. Not only did San Antonio put up an impressive victory on the road (which has been hard to come by this season), they even played well enough to earn something that we have seen far too little of this year: garbage time. This allowed Lonnie to get a bit more run in an NBA arena, and gave Pop a chance to play with his new toy Montejiunas (who was finally able to suit up after dealing with visa issues). More importantly, though...I think it was good for this group's confidence that they can still go out and perform at a high level, especially on the road.

At this point, the Spurs are literally in do-or-die mode, with death looming at the hands of the Warriors. Frankly, any matchup they draw is going to be difficult for this team, but Golden State is by far the hardest and I think we can all agree that we've seen that movie enough already. It's 7th seed or bust.

https://i.imgur.com/AuD1Ppu.png

Reading the tea leaves:

-As has already been said ad nauseum, the Spurs need to win their remaining two games to give themselves any reasonable chance of staying out of the 8th seed. The Warriors have not completely locked up the #1 spot, but it's hard to see them losing 2 of their last 4 which is the only way the door would even be remotely cracked for the Nuggets to rise.

-All H2H Tiebreakers have been decided except for the Blazers and the Clippers. The Blazers' doesn't matter because San Antonio can't reach them in the standings anyways. The Clippers, however, are making things a bit more interesting. The Spurs currently stand at 22 Conference Losses with 1 Conf. game remaining. The Clippers stand at 23 Conference Losses with 2 Conf. games remaining. That means that for them to fall down to the Spurs in the standings (which is the only way a Tiebreaker would even matter), they will have to lose at least 1 more Conference game, which would also give the Spurs the tiebreaker.

-Another distinct possibility is the Spurs, Thunder, and Clippers all ending with the same record. Since none of these teams are Division leaders, in the case of a 3-way tie, the Tiebreaker would fall to best winning percentage in all games among the tied teams (correct me if I'm wrong here Chinook). By my math, the Spurs lead this 3-way matchup with a percentage of 57%, compared to 50% for the Clippers and 43% for the Thunder. So in the unlikely case of this logjam, the Spurs would actually come out on top with the 6th seed.

Upcoming games this week:

April 7th - SAS @ CLE - The Spurs will close their road schedule at a Sunday matinee game in Cleveland. The Cavaliers are tied for the third worst record in the league, so on paper this should be an easy win. However, there is a lot of pressure on the Spurs to keep winning, so that fact coupled with the Spurs road woes and their tendency to sleepwalk through day-games could make this matchup more difficult than it needs to be. Spurs just need to stay focused and come out like they did against the Wizards, and they should be fine.

April 10th - DAL @ SAS - San Antonio's final game of the 2018-2019 season will come against perhaps their most familiar opponent. Pop and the Spurs have had countless battles against Carlisle and Dirk...and I expect this game to be no different. The Mavericks may sport the record of a lottery team, but you know that they would love to play spoiler against the Spurs and send Dirk off into the sunset with a victory in the last game of his dignified career. As much as I'm sure the Spurs would love to send Nowitzki out the right way, this is no time for nostalgia...the Spurs need this win.

[BillMc]

After getting beat down in an unsurprising loss in the Mile High City, the Spurs picked themselves off the mat and got back to their winning ways in Washington. Not only did San Antonio put up an impressive victory on the road (which has been hard to come by this season), they even played well enough to earn something that we have seen far too little of this year: garbage time. This allowed Lonnie to get a bit more run in an NBA arena, and gave Pop a chance to play with his new toy Montejiunas (who was finally able to suit up after dealing with visa issues). More importantly, though...I think it was good for this group's confidence that they can still go out and perform at a high level, especially on the road.

At this point, the Spurs are literally in do-or-die mode, with death looming at the hands of the Warriors. Frankly, any matchup they draw is going to be difficult for this team, but Golden State is by far the hardest and I think we can all agree that we've seen that movie enough already. It's 7th seed or bust.

https://i.imgur.com/bOHPM3D.png

Reading the tea leaves:

-As has already been said ad nauseum, the Spurs need to win their remaining two games to give themselves any reasonable chance of staying out of the 8th seed. The Warriors have not completely locked up the #1 spot, but it's hard to see them losing 2 of their last 4 which is the only way the door would even be remotely cracked for the Nuggets to rise.

-All H2H Tiebreakers have been decided except for the Blazers and the Clippers. The Blazers' doesn't matter because San Antonio can't reach them in the standings anyways. The Clippers, however, are making things a bit more interesting. The Spurs currently stand at 22 Conference Losses with 1 Conf. game remaining. The Clippers stand at 23 Conference Losses with Conf. 2 games remaining. That means that for them to fall down to the Spurs in the standings (which is the only way a Tiebreaker would even matter), they will have to lose at least 1 more Conference game, which would also give the Spurs the tiebreaker.

-Another distinct possibility is the Spurs, Thunder, and Clippers all ending with the same record. Since none of these teams are Division leaders, in the case of a 3-way tie, the Tiebreaker would fall to best winning percentage in all games among the tied teams (correct me if I'm wrong here Chinook (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=37557)). By my math, the Spurs lead this 3-way matchup with a percentage of 57%, compared to 50% for the Clippers and 43% for the Thunder. So in the unlikely case of this logjam, the Spurs would actually come out on top with the 6th seed.

Upcoming games this week:

April 7th - SAS @ CLE - The Spurs will close their road schedule at a Sunday matinee game in Cleveland. The Cavaliers are tied for the third worst record in the league, so on paper this should be an easy win. However, there is a lot of pressure on the Spurs to keep winning, so that fact coupled with the Spurs road woes and their tendency to sleepwalk through day-games could make this matchup more difficult than it needs to be. Spurs just need to stay focused and come out like they did against the Warriors, and they should be fine.

April 10th - DAL @ SAS - San Antonio's final game of the 2018-2019 season will come against perhaps their most familiar opponent. Pop and the Spurs have had countless battles against Carlisle and Dirk...and I expect this game to be no different. The Mavericks may sport the record of a lottery team, but you know that they would love to play spoiler against the Spurs and send Dirk off into the sunset with a victory in the last game of his dignified career. As much as I'm sure the Spurs would love to send Nowitzki out the right way, this is no time for nostalgia...the Spurs need this win.

Thanks Dex! You are the real MVP!

Both of these games I think will difficult. The Cavs almost ruined Manu's night and now they'll be at home on an early game. They don't fear the Spurs and have nothing to lose. Mavs would love to screw over the Spurs and the rivalry always means it'll be tough game.

Still, somehow Spurs will win out. :flag:

[ZeusWillJudge]

Thanks Dex! You are the real MVP!

Both of these games I think will difficult. The Cavs almost ruined Manu's night and now they'll be at home on an early game. They don't fear the Spurs and have nothing to lose. Mavs would love to screw over the Spurs and the rivalry always means it'll be tough game.


+1 Dex puts a LOT of work into maintaining this, and saves us all a lot of work. Much appreciated.

It's always dangerous playing teams with nothing to lose. And, yeah, the chance to exact some payback on the Spurs, even a lesser version, is always there as motivation.

[Dex]

Thanks Dex! You are the real MVP!

Both of these games I think will difficult. The Cavs almost ruined Manu's night and now they'll be at home on an early game. They don't fear the Spurs and have nothing to lose. Mavs would love to screw over the Spurs and the rivalry always means it'll be tough game.

Still, somehow Spurs will win out. :flag:


+1 Dex puts a LOT of work into maintaining this, and saves us all a lot of work. Much appreciated.

It's always dangerous playing teams with nothing to lose. And, yeah, the chance to exact some payback on the Spurs, even a lesser version, is always there as motivation.

Thanks guys. It's been fun, especially considering how precarious things seemed at the start. The fact that we can still make the 6th seed in a couple scenarios boggles the mind...but still gotta take it one game at a time (and hope for some help).

Looking forward to next season where we hopefully won't be counting Magic Numbers just to make the playoffs.

[JPB]

That 5 game losing streak is obviously what prevented spurs to fight for HCA that (kind of surprisnigly) was up to grab... But they followed it up with a 9 game winning one, so that's pretty much your season summed up there... you can't really know what to expect.

Except that the 8th seed is a direct ticket to the Bahamas and that Denver seem to be the "best" 1st round foe... then you play HOU in the second with Paul pulling his hamstring and Haren chocking/quitting again, and next thing you know you're back in the WCF...

Right?

[monty4329]

That 5 game losing streak is obviously what prevented spurs to fight for HCA that (kind of surprisnigly) was up to grab... But they followed it up with a 9 game winning one, so that's pretty much your season summed up there... you can't really know what to expect.

Except that the 8th seed is a direct ticket to the Bahamas and that Denver seem to be the "best" 1st round foe... then you play HOU in the second with Paul pulling his hamstring and Haren chocking/quitting again, and next thing you know you're back in the WCF...

Right?

Flawless...

[Kobe'sAchilles]

Dream scenario would be for Portland to win out and get the 3rd while Houston loses one game so they get the 4th seed. Then both the Clips and the Thunder drop a game and we sneak into the 6th seed.

[monty4329]

Dream scenario would be for Portland to win out and get the 3rd while Houston loses one game so they get the 4th seed. Then both the Clips and the Thunder drop a game and we sneak into the 6th seed.

What about beating CLE first, and then DAL?

[Mugen]

Maybe Pop tanks the game against the Mavs:

1) Avoiding the Warriors wouldn't be fair to Steve Kerr
2) Giving Dirk the proper send off he deserves

I'm sure he prioritizes those things more than the ball club actually winning, after all it's just a game tbh....

[weeks]

Maybe Pop tanks the game against the Mavs:

1) Avoiding the Warriors wouldn't be fair to Steve Kerr
2) Giving Dirk the proper send off he deserves

I'm sure he prioritizes those things more than the ball club actually winning, after all it's just a game tbh....
please stop you're scaring me

[Chinook]

What about beating CLE first, and then DAL?

Why?

[spurs10]

Thanks guys. It's been fun, especially considering how precarious things seemed at the start. The fact that we can still make the 6th seed in a couple scenarios boggles the mind...but still gotta take it one game at a time (and hope for some help).

Looking forward to next season where we hopefully won't be counting Magic Numbers just to make the playoffs. Good work, thanks!
:flag:

[monty4329]

Why?

hard to make 6th with one win only...

[Kobe'sAchilles]

What about beating CLE first, and then DAL?
That was implied in my dream scenario tbh when I mentioned us getting the 6th seed.

[monty4329]

That was implied in my dream scenario tbh when I mentioned us getting the 6th seed.

Of course you were. I just am not that confident, having seen how we play bad teams.... Although at halftime we are up by a mile in CLE, let's hope we don't lay a turd against DAL...

[Kobe'sAchilles]

Of course you were. I just am not that confident, having seen how we play bad teams.... Although at halftime we are up by a mile in CLE, let's hope we don't lay a turd against DAL...

It's at home though and we play so much better at home that I'm not worried about that game. Even if we have struggled against bad teams we still beat them at home. You gotta go back to the Charlotte game in January when we lost to a bad team at home. (I don't consider Sacramento and Miami to be bad teams).

[Chinook]

hard to make 6th with one win only...

But that doesn't matter. Teams don't win because of what fans say on a message board.

[Spurs 4 The Win]

6th seed looking very possible. Another tight finish for seeding on the line... Lets not fuck it all away like we did when we went from the 2 seed to the 6 seed in one hellish game in NO.

[HarlemHeat37]

What a tough position to be in, want to avoid GS in 8th, but the alternative is probably Houston in 6th:lol Rockets are much better than Denver(not even on the same level), but wouldn't shock me if Pop believes they could challenge the Rockets(I strongly disagree)..

[TD 21]

Yeah and with the Spurs luck, if they do avoid the Warriors, they'll get the Rockets. The Nuggets unfortunately seem least likely at this point.

Obviously no one should feel even the slightest confidence in this team doing anything no matter the path, but if they can somehow end up in a bracket bereft of either the Warriors or Rockets, there's at least a conceivable path to the WCF. The Nuggets and Clippers are the only two I could see this team beating though and obviously they're not getting the latter.

[Rummpd]

http://www.espn.com/nba/playbyplay?gameId=401071870

Friggin 5 point possession with flagrant

Wolves gave up big lead in seemingly one play

[objective]

I'd rather see the Spurs against Houston.

White might be the best Harden defender and Harden without fouls just lucked out with his contested stepbacks.

In the playoffs, Harden will have a harder time getting the bs fouls, and young players like White can actually get more respect. Jonathan Simmons didn't get the second year player calls against Harden and I don't think White would either.

Houston without Harden going berzerk is not scary.

[YGWHI]

Still a chance to avoid Warriors. Depends on Pop resting or not half team vs Mavs.

Just make the push to that #6/7 seed

[Genovaswitness]

Still a chance to avoid Warriors. Depends on Pop resting or not half team vs Mavs.

Just make the push to that #6/7 seed

is there even a chance with OKC winning today? I haven’t crunched the numbers much myself tbh

[YGWHI]

is there even a chance with OKC winning today? I haven’t crunched the numbers much myself tbh
Yes because OKC has still 2 games remaining vs Rockets and Bucks. Spurs 1 vs Mavs. If they lose both or just one but Spurs beat Mavs we have tie-break over them

[cd98]

Spurs are going to be 8th seed. It is their density. I mean their destiny.

[r0drig0lac]

if the Clippers loses today, do we have the tiebreaker?

[TheGoatishere]

if the Clippers loses today, do we have the tiebreaker?

Yeah

[GusT15]

if the Clippers loses today, do we have the tiebreaker?

And if the Clippers win tonight,the Warriors will have done everything in their power to draw the Spurs in first round :lol

[GreekSpursfan]

Today we'll find out who the Dubs want in the first round, i believe its us but the Clippers isn't a bad choice for them either.
Imagine us trying to avoid the Dubs and end up getting the Rockets as the 6th seed. I prefer losing to the Dubs than the Rockets tbh. I kinda hate Houston a little more than the Warriors.

[TheGoatishere]

And if the Clippers win tonight,the Warriors will have done everything in their power to draw the Spurs in first round :lol

The warriors aren’t losing their last regular season game In Oracle , all starters are playing.

they clinch number 1 seed with a win tn as well

[r0drig0lac]

And if the Clippers win tonight,the Warriors will have done everything in their power to draw the Spurs in first round :lol

https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/images/smilies/smicry.gif

[duncan2150]

if the Clippers loses today, do we have the tiebreaker?


If the clips or okc lose one game and we win Dallas , we will be ahead of them so yes.

[YGWHI]

Today we'll find out who the Dubs want in the first round, i believe its us but the Clippers isn't a bad choice for them either.
Imagine us trying to avoid the Dubs and end up getting the Rockets as the 6th seed. I prefer losing to the Dubs than the Rockets tbh. I kinda hate Houston a little more than the Warriors.

If you hate Rockets... beating them would be make it even much sweeter.

Spurs had no chance vs Warriors while there is a slight one vs Rockets. I would take it.

Also I will love so much to watch how OKC is eliminated by Warriors.

[GusT15]

The warriors aren’t losing their last regular season game In Oracle , all starters are playing.

they clinch number 1 seed with a win tn as well

That's the only reason i am having second thoughts on how much to bet on Clippers tonight.

I am trying to weigh their desire to avoid Beverley against Curry and the fact they are basically locked at 1 seed vs all their starters playing. (They'll play in Oracle in the playoffs i don't see that as an issue)

One hour left.

[GreekSpursfan]

If you hate Rockets... beating them would be make it even much sweeter.

Spurs had no chance vs Warriors while there is a slight one vs Rockets. I would take it.

Also I will love so much to watch how OKC is eliminated by Warriors.

The last time we beat them and i don't want to give them the satisfaction of beating us because even though you are right and we do have a slight chance against them i don't see it happening.

[ShutUp SayItAgain!]

Maybe Pop tanks the game against the Mavs:

1) Avoiding the Warriors wouldn't be fair to Steve Kerr
2) Giving Dirk the proper send off he deserves

I'm sure he prioritizes those things more than the ball club actually winning, after all it's just a game tbh....

lmao sad thing is it's probably true