Random Thoughts Before Game 7: Spurs @ Nuggets, 2019 NBA Playoffs

[timvp]

-I'm not sure there are any additional defensive adjustments the Spurs can make heading into Game 7. It might be tempting to send more double-team help at Nikola Jokic after his monster Game 6, however it'd be risky giving their three-point shooters open looks early on at home -- that could be a recipe for a large first quarter deficit. I think the better idea is to play Jokic as straight up as possible and if he beats you scoring 40-plus points, you tip your hat and head to an island in the Caribbean.

-That Jokic and Jamal Murray pick-and-roll has been close to impossible for the Spurs to stop ... but there's not much else San Antonio can do. If they go under the screen, Murray will feast on three-pointers. If they send help, either Murray or Jokic will get the ball to the hands of a three-point shooter. Best bet, again, is to make those two guys finish contested shots in the lane. I'd be different if the Spurs had talented, multipurpose defenders but that's not the case.

-Offensively, I think getting LaMarcus Aldridge and DeMar DeRozan shots in the lane early and often will be key. Not only to get high quality shots, but to also try pile fouls on the Nuggets and try to get to the free throw line. Jokic getting in foul trouble would be a game-changer, obviously. And since the Spurs really can't count on an explosion from their role playing three-point shooters, attempting north of 30 free throws would be extremely helpful.

-For the Spurs to win the game, I imagine both Aldridge and DeRozan are going to have to score more than 25 points. On top of that, they'll need either Derrick White or Rudy Gay to go along for the ride. White finding lanes to the rim like he did in Game 3 or Gay exploiting mismatches like he did in Game 6 would be momentous for the good guys.

-If a shooter is going to get hot, you'd think it'd be a veteran like Marco Belinelli or Patty Mills. Honestly, though, I don't have much faith in Mills being the man to get it going. Not only has he been missing, he's had inconsistent rotation on his shots -- and that tells me his wrapped shooting thumb is part of the problem. Belinelli? It'd be great timing for him to go off for 15-plus points. Bryn Forbes has been the team's most reliable sharpshooter this series but considering confidence has been an issue in his young career, I'd be hesitant to lean on him in a Game 7 situation.

-In the fourth quarter of a close game, DeRozan's ability to create shots for himself will be really useful. Yes, there will be the risk that the offense stalls if DeRozan goes too far down the hero-mode trail, but a Game 7 on the road is when you're glad you have a creator of DeRozan's ilk leading your team.

-Speaking of which, let's remember what happened the last time the Spurs were able to win a Game 7 on the road. Back in 2008 versus the Hornets, Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili were a combined 0-for-12 in the contest's final 19 minutes. But, thankfully, Tony Parker was able to muster enough offense on his own to pull off the victory. He had all but one of the team's baskets in the fourth quarter, including the clincher with 50 seconds remaining. (The other basket in the fourth: a three-pointer by Ime Udoka.) I can see a similar situation playing out tonight, in that DeRozan's ability to carry the load the down the stretch will determine whether the Spurs win or lose.

-A lot is being made about Denver's youth but I don't see that being too big of a deal. If the game was in San Antonio then, yeah, maybe the youngsters could shrivel in the spotlight. But they'll be at home where they've been the best home team in the NBA this season. The bigger hope for the Spurs is that the Nuggets streaky three-point shooters have an off game.

-I'm excited to see how the Spurs play. They've been such a Jekyll and Hyde team this season that it's impossible to know what to expect. We've seen them play as well as any team in the league and then days later look inept against an actively tanking franchise. But if they play with the appropriate amount of energy in Game 7 and realize they're basically playing with house money at this point, I think they have at least a coinflip's chance at being the only team in the NBA to pull off a first round upset this year.

[JPB]

- Rudy has to confirm his last good game...

- One of Marco, Patty or Bryn has to go off...

-Which Derozan in the fourth?

- which spurs team will show up?

[Uriel]

So you’re giving them a 50/50 shot at winning Game 7?

[polandprzem]

All things consider I think our bench needs to produce some ofensive storm. They are handicapped when it comes to defense so they need to shoot light out. It seems like Bertrans will be out of the question to play that game although we might see but Marco and Mills needs to be sharp as heck. I know Patty is inconsistent and is off with his shot but he needs to settle better. All his latest shots were of his rhythm, he rushed or was not set as usual. He looks like in a hurry so IMO he needs to calm a bit.

Other then that we need DDR to score his midrangers and fight. LMA needs to be on his best rebunding and defense wise. Also establish himself closer to the basket.


Tough task. Stats are against us when it comes to game7 and also Denver are great at home.

[Capt Bringdown]

I think White needs to be aggressive and get going early - preferably in the paint. I think this will create more opportunities for LMA and DeRozan, and not the other way around.
He appears to have been told to defer to LMA and DeRozan to start the game. Get White going first, he's the key.

[quentin_compson]

I agree that any major adjustments or changes in the game plan are unlikely and also probably would be unwise at this point. Maybe we will see the Spurs mixing it up a little more defensively against Jokic, alternating between sending help and giving him single coverage.
LMA and DeRozan getting it going early would be huge because it would help open up the floor for the Spurs' shooters. I don't know how much I would want the ball in DeRozan's hands in a close game down the stretch, though. I hope White would get his share of opportunities in handling the ball there as well.

Tough game to predict. I feel that between a blowout for Denver and a close win for the Spurs, anything is possible.

[spursparker9]

LMA, DDR, White has to attack and get Jokic in foul trouble early

[Strategic]

Spurs have 3 players with game 7 experience, led by Mills with most. Nugs have none. Pop knows what’s coming. Spurs got this.

[monty4329]

-Offensively, I think getting LaMarcus Aldridge and DeMar DeRozan shots in the lane early and often will be key. Not only to get high quality shots, but to also try pile fouls on the Nuggets and try to get to the free throw line. Jokic getting in foul trouble would be a game-changer, obviously. And since the Spurs really can't count on an explosion from their role playing three-point shooters, attempting north of 30 free throws would be extremely helpful.


Excellent point. First quarter will be critical, if we can get Jokic and Plumlee a couple fouls each, pounding the ball inside, that would be the key to win the game.

It is always possible DEN makes 50% of 3s, in that case well done and goddnight. In every othr case, Jokic is the key, if he gets in foul troubles or he has to stay too longtime on the court because Plumlee is ineffective, we have a solid chance.

I don't agree on timvp statement about DDR creating shots in 4th quarter. If we get to that point, then the game is lost. DDR is a net negative when he "creates" anything.

Hope the coaching staff find at least for this game a way to prevent the usual bursts from the opposing team, the 8-0, 12-2, 19-6 type of shit.

[ZeusWillJudge]

I think fouls are going to be a major factor. Poeltl, Aldridge, and White have to stay out of foul trouble. If any of those guys get a couple of early whistles, it's going to be a long night. I hate to say it, but the zebras can be a major factor in this game. The Spurs need to go straight at Plumlee the moment he steps on the court. He WILL commit fouls, and getting him off the floor means less rest for Jokic.

I think you're right about DeRozan. He may come up big, or he may fail, but he's the one. But in the fourth quarter, the Nuggets have packed the paint quite a bit. Lots of contact, lots of arm hacks, and not much space to operate. DeRozan has to keep from melting down if he doesn't get the calls he thinks he deserves. But the fourth is also the time when some of our 3P shooters should be able to get good looks, if DDR will drive and dish. That's the price of packing the paint.

I wish DeRozan would spend less time with the ball in his hands when White is on the floor. White normally doesn't turn the ball over much. Let him keep things moving, and when DeRozan gets his number called, THEN he can create. Let the motion bend the defense a little, and DeRozan will be a lot more effective.

[ZeusWillJudge]

So you’re giving them a 50/50 shot at winning Game 7?

If the Good Spurs show up, I'd give them better than 50/50. That's what this series has shown me, anyway. If the Bad Spurs show up? Pretty close to zero. It's possible that Jokic could suffer a horrific disfiguring injury.

[John B]

Gay has to exploit his mismatches. All night. Him posting slows down what normally avalanche of fastbreak points from their young 2nd unit which Mills/Beli cannot defend.

Stagger Demar/White Aldridge/Poeltl with the 2nd unit. Longer minutes for them. Shorter minutes for Mills.

Play Jokic/Murray pnr straight up avoid making them facilitators. If Jokic scores 40 points, I doubt it. They’re too much under pressure to win over 7th seeded at home

Keep attacking the rim early and hope they get Jokic in foul trouble.

White needs to be aggressive. Pop has mentioned before he doesn’t need to score after that 36 points display. Since then he seemed shy on taking it to the hole. White has to attack and take it personal on Murray. Let’s go Derrick!

Poeltl needs to continue playing big. Secure rebounds, but avoid getting foul. Him playing big is also a big factor

Pop pushing the right button on defense. Defense wins games

Let it fly when open. Spurs are due for great 3 points shooting

Lastly experience counts. Composure but play with urgency. Spurs will win this handily.

GSG!!! :flag::flag::flag:

[Mugen]

Maybe Monte Morris can pull a Jannero Pargo this game.

[Mugen]

As I've said since Game 6, there's literally zero pressure on them this Game. They are the lower seed, have been trash on the road for most of the year and are severely outgunned from a talent perspective....

Outside of this board, nobody will care if they lose tonight.

No real big adjustments are needed (none that Pop will make anyways), just gotta hope guys like Jak and White stay out of foul trouble and you get some outside of shooting from 2 of Forbes, Beli, Mills, and Gay.

Just stay within a puncher's chance heading into the final minutes of the 4th and see if the Denver clenches up tbh.....

[ceperez]

If Marco does not take enough shots then the Spurs will lose.

[GreekSpursfan]

Lets hope refs don't fall for Malone's whiny comments because if they do, i can see Poetl with 3 fouls in the first quarter.
As far as our defense, please get the rebounds and don't leave them wide open from three, pretty please.
I don't expect much from Gay tbh.
Last but not least i want to see an aggressive White, a White that attacks the paint and doesn't hesitate to shoot the three if its there. Whenever White doesn't defer to others we always have a chance to win.

[rascal]

Denver is likely going to choke like in game 1.
They have more to lose in being at home and the 2nd seed they are suppose to win but their playoff inexperience showed in game 1 and will show again with the pressure of a game 7.

[benefactor]

I like Beli as an X-factor as well. He's had some huge playoff moments and it would give the Spurs a great shot at winning tonight if he morphed into Big Balls Beli in this game.

[benefactor]

Denver is likely going to choke like in game 1.
They have more to lose in being at home and the 2nd seed they are suppose to win but their playoff inexperience showed in game 1 and will show again with the pressure of a game 7.
rascal you feeling ok bro?

[ducks]

Tp carried the spurs not manu and Duncan in game 7

Who will be the tp today ?

[Rummpd]

I think Pop needs to play close to vest - timeouts early if they go on run, get Stars back in quickly / there is no tomorrow’s game without a win - coach like it!

[FkLA]

I like Beli as an X-factor as well. He's had some huge playoff moments and it would give the Spurs a great shot at winning tonight if he morphed into Big Balls Beli in this game.

When did this happen?

[benefactor]

When did this happen?
:lol...really? He's had plenty of big games in the playoffs in his career. You only have to go back to last year when he was at Philly to find some. I remember him being the one of the only players to really show up in the 15 playoffs against the Clippers in game 6...a game that the Spurs should have won to move on to the second round.

[mookie2001]

Lets see Forbes hit his first three and then stop shooting until the second half.

[Roscoe P. Coltrane]

If Poeltl can place a well timed knee in the same area of Murray's thigh tonight the Spurs will win.

[vavvi]

1. I think Denver is a heavy favorite.

2. I'm afraid of the refs being too much of a factor.

3. I agree with Timvp on core defensive plan: the main priority is to defend 3pt line as well as possible. Jokic is too good playing out of double teams. We can live with Murray-Jokic semi-contested lay-ups. The whole story of the series was Denver 3pt shooting. When they nail them we lose.

4. On offense we should create a decent amount of quality 3pt attempts. Belli/Forbes/Mills/Gay/Bertans (if he plays) are key to this game. Let LMA shoot once or twice if he's wide open from the corner.

5. I think DDR's hot shooting in Game 6 may be dangerous going to Game 7 in the sense he may start launching too many 2pt fadeways. It's not a winning shot and he's not going to shoot it like that two games in a row. I want him to go to the basket more around or directly to Jokic body for layup/dunk/foul/assist.

6. White needs to have at least 2 or 3 decisive defensive plays. He's not going to score 20+ but we need maximum concentration on defense.

7. Good luck everybody. This Portland team seems so beatable.

[wildbill2u]

What outcome and story line will the NBA prefer:
1. The Spurs have done it again, coming up with the right parts for their system. They overcome the young game Nuggets
2. The young Nuggets are for real, the beginning of a change cycle in the NBA that will develop new fans. The tough veteran Spurs can't beat the newer stars.

The Refs will deliver.

[vavvi]

What outcome and story line will the NBA prefer:
1. The Spurs have done it again, coming up with the right parts for their system. They overcome the young game Nuggets
2. The young Nuggets are for real, the beginning of a change cycle in the NBA that will develop new fans. The tough veteran Spurs can't beat the newer stars.

The Refs will deliver.

Alas, they’ll prefer the second narrative

[TD 21]

As I said a few days ago, the path to winning is a repeat of game 1: Hope they have early jitters, capitalize on that, then once they find their footing, hang on for dear life and survive.

Also need continued progression (Spurs) and regression (Nuggets) to the mean from 3, which can be somewhat aided by not needlessly doubling Jokic and to a lesser extent Millsap, especially one pass away.

I don't care how much Jokic scores 1-on-1 vs Poeltl and Aldridge. I'll live with it so long as they avoid foul trouble, limits 3s and force his out of shape, due for some regression to the mean ass, to play 40ish minutes, while having to either repeatedly create his own offense or rumble to the rim and finish on the roll.



As I've said since Game 6, there's literally zero pressure on them this Game. They are the lower seed, have been trash on the road for most of the year and are severely outgunned from a talent perspective....

Outside of this board, nobody will care if they lose tonight.

No real big adjustments are needed (none that Pop will make anyways), just gotta hope guys like Jak and White stay out of foul trouble and you get some outside of shooting from 2 of Forbes, Beli, Mills, and Gay.

Just stay within a puncher's chance heading into the final minutes of the 4th and see if the Denver clenches up tbh.....

I disagree . . .


- If they can't beat a team like the Nuggets now, when they're playoff neophytes, why would they be able to as their core inches closer to its collective prime while they fade from theirs?

- The talent gap is not nearly as wide as the perception seems to be. The Spurs, who had to integrate 8 new players, have been better since the All-Star break, if not when the calendar turned to '19.

- Even though I'd pick the Trail Blazers to beat them (though Kanter's injury could be big, because Aldridge would likely destroy Aminu, Leonard, Collins), the so called mid 3 might never have a better chance of reaching the Conference Finals.

- They better be arguing this Poeltl "illegal screens" panic routine from Malone behind the screens. They probably need him to play around 30 minutes.

[Stabula]

-Speaking of which, let's remember what happened the last time the Spurs were able to win a Game 7 on the road. Back in 2008 versus the Hornets, Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili were a combined 0-for-12 in the contest's final 19 minutes. But, thankfully, Tony Parker was able to muster enough offense on his own to pull off the victory. He had all but one of the team's baskets in the fourth quarter, including the clincher with 50 seconds remaining. (The other basket in the fourth: a three-pointer by Ime Udoka.) I can see a similar situation playing out tonight, in that DeRozan's ability to carry the load the down the stretch will determine whether the Spurs win or lose.



Sadly DeRozan is no MVParker

[Spurch]

As I said a few days ago, the path to winning is a repeat of game 1: Hope they have early jitters, capitalize on that, then once they find their footing, hang on for dear life and survive.

Also need continued progression (Spurs) and regression (Nuggets) to the mean from 3, which can be somewhat aided by not needlessly doubling Jokic and to a lesser extent Millsap, especially one pass away.

I don't care how much Jokic scores 1-on-1 vs Poeltl and Aldridge. I'll live with it so long as they avoid foul trouble, limits 3s and force his out of shape, due for some regression to the mean ass, to play 40ish minutes, while having to either repeatedly create his own offense or rumble to the rim and finish on the roll.




I disagree . . .


- If they can't beat a team like the Nuggets now, when they're playoff neophytes, why would they be able to as their core inches closer to its collective prime while they fade from theirs?

- The talent gap is not nearly as wide as the perception seems to be. The Spurs, who had to integrate 8 new players, have been better since the All-Star break, if not when the calendar turned to '19.

- Even though I'd pick the Trail Blazers to beat them (though Kanter's injury could be big, because Aldridge would likely destroy Aminu, Leonard, Collins), the so called mid 3 might never have a better chance of reaching the Conference Finals.

- They better be arguing this Poeltl "illegal screens" panic routine from Malone behind the screens. They probably need him to play around 30 minutes.

Everyone's point of view is acceptable, the 1 thing I keep mentioning from game 2 to 5 is "Rudy gay" gay needs to come up big even bigger than game 6 and I'm sure he knows it by just the way he played in g6, he is too long, too athletic and with his height advantage too passive when on the floor, he's our supposedly 3rd best player and should make his mark in game 7 added to that we should play yokic straight up just like some of you said let him get his points eventually he'll wear down once all the others don't score more than 8-10 points lastly we should keep the game within reach don't let them go up 12,15,20 points they'll have too much confidence.

[vander]

If Poeltl can place a well timed knee in the same area of Murray's thigh tonight the Spurs will win.

I also think this is important for victory.

Poeltl needs to set fierce screens, and Mills needs to flop hard when Nugs screen him

[Ozballer]

Both teams seem to be "highly emotional" getting really high and low on themselves and impacting performance on the flick of a switch several times in one game.
The KEY for the Spurs is to play hard and within themselves. Make shots, make stops but primarily, never stop playing and not getting caught on plays that don't go their way. Game six was a bit like that actually. A cold arse stare performance and a second round beckons.