What are the odds that Trump gets re-elected?

[DC23]

There was a time not all that long before the last election when a lot of people thought that Trump had no real shot at winning, but he’s sat in the White House ever since. What do you think his chances of a second term are? If the Democrats want to defeat him, what candidate should they run?

[boutons_deux]

I expect the Dem candidate will be propelled seriously as was Obama by this voter sentiment reacting to the Trash/Repug shitshow:

"No more Repug (war criminals), ANYONE but a Repug"

Additionally, Obama, on his own, was a smart, attractive, accomplished, personable candidate.

[a777pilot]

It looks, at this point, that there is no one that can even come close to beating Trump.

But never say never.

[Reck]

It looks, at this point, that there is no one that can even come close to beating Trump.

But never say never.

:lol

[a777pilot]

I plan on voting for Trump. Why not? He's doing a great job for this nation and "We the People".

[Will Hunting]

If the economy stays strong he's the slight favorite imo.

If the economy takes a downturn between now and the 2020 election he's toast.

[boutons_deux]

If the economy stays strong he's the slight favorite imo.

If the economy takes a downturn between now and the 2020 election he's toast.

the economy isn't "strong" for most people. Real wages were DOWN for '17 to '18.

​https://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-health-insurance-medical-bills-20190502-story.html#nws=mcnewsletter

https://www.politicususa.com/2019/05/04/a-little-look-behind-the-numbers-shows-trumps-economy-inflicts-pain-on-most-americans.html

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/1852897

https://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2018/7/31/17632348/wages-lagging-inequality-income-recovery-recession-wage-puzzle-economics

https://www.vox.com/2019/5/3/18526788/worker-productivity-spikes

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/10/19/1707948/-Daily-Kos-US-Workers-Are-Overworked-and-Underpaid-Why#comments

Since the Banksters Great Depression, about 95% growth in GDP/wealth has gone to the top 5%.

[baseline bum]

the economy isn't "strong" for most people. Real wages were DOWN for '17 to '18.

​https://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-health-insurance-medical-bills-20190502-story.html#nws=mcnewsletter

https://www.politicususa.com/2019/05/04/a-little-look-behind-the-numbers-shows-trumps-economy-inflicts-pain-on-most-americans.html

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/1852897

https://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2018/7/31/17632348/wages-lagging-inequality-income-recovery-recession-wage-puzzle-economics

https://www.vox.com/2019/5/3/18526788/worker-productivity-spikes

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/10/19/1707948/-Daily-Kos-US-Workers-Are-Overworked-and-Underpaid-Why#comments

Since the Banksters Great Depression, about 95% growth in GDP/wealth has gone to the top 5%.

Pretty much. LOL at this nation's economy being strong when you had government workers having to go to food banks after missing one paycheck in Trump's retarded shutdown. How can people be considered middle class when a bunch of them are one missed paycheck from disaster?

Then again the economy is strong for the people who matter. Eg those who fund our elections.

[boutons_deux]

https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=266289&p=9799398&viewfull=1#post9799398

[Spurtacular]

If you trust the polls on Biden, about under one percent chance Trump re-elected.

[boutons_deux]

The GOP tax bill only gave workers 2 cents more per hour in bonuses

US companies got about $54 billion.

A year later, economic data shows that the tax bill’s benefit to workers was largely a mirage.

from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, showing that the much-touted bonuses did little to boost workers’ paychecks.

In the past 12 months, cash bonuses only gave workers an extra 2 cents in average hourly compensation, adjusted for inflation.

Not enough money from the tax cuts has trickled down to employees.

only about 4.4 percent of US workers got a wage increase or bonus as a result of the tax bill.

https://www.vox.com/2018/12/18/18144509/tax-cut-bill-workers-bonus (https://www.vox.com/2018/12/18/18144509/tax-cut-bill-workers-bonus)

and of course, "jobs" created include minimum wage, part-time, no benefit jobs that keep people in financial precarity, paycheck to paycheck.

[a777pilot]

The Trump tax reduction has increased the number of jobs. It has increase the pay of those jobs It has ensured a good retirement for many yet to come.

As for rewarding those at the top of the income pile, if you like those wages and benefits, then get off your dead ass and compete for the job.

[ElNono]

Too early to tell, IMO. It’s really more about how the Dems frame their campaign than about Trump.

[a777pilot]

Yes, the Democrats need to come up with some good, if not great ideas. Campaigning against Trump is a sure means to defeat.

[Will Hunting]

the economy isn't "strong" for most people. Real wages were DOWN for '17 to '18.

​https://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-health-insurance-medical-bills-20190502-story.html#nws=mcnewsletter

https://www.politicususa.com/2019/05/04/a-little-look-behind-the-numbers-shows-trumps-economy-inflicts-pain-on-most-americans.html

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/1852897

https://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2018/7/31/17632348/wages-lagging-inequality-income-recovery-recession-wage-puzzle-economics

https://www.vox.com/2019/5/3/18526788/worker-productivity-spikes

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/10/19/1707948/-Daily-Kos-US-Workers-Are-Overworked-and-Underpaid-Why#comments

Since the Banksters Great Depression, about 95% growth in GDP/wealth has gone to the top 5%.
I don’t disagree with any of this but it public perception is what matters and the retarded American public thinks the economy is strong right now.

[boutons_deux]

I don’t disagree with any of this but it public perception is what matters and the retarded American public thinks the economy is strong right now.

link?

[a777pilot]

I don’t disagree with any of this but it public perception is what matters and the retarded American public thinks the economy is strong right now.

...and the retarded American public would be correct.

[Will Hunting]

link?
Trump’s approval rating with respect to the economy is like 54% last I checked.

[Will Hunting]

Also a777pilot I you’re on my ignore list so I have no idea what you replied to me with but I’m sure it’s abkut how good the economy really is doing under Trump.

[baseline bum]

I sadly think he has a great shot at re-election because I think the Democrats are just going to run on Trump being a liar and piece of shit. Which he is, but that kind of negative campaigning really plays into the both sides narrative the Republicans use so successfully to depress turnout.

[Spurtacular]

Trump gonna win. This thread ain't nothing but group therapy for chumpettes, tbh.

[ducks]

Name
2
Things
Biden
Accomplished
In
His
Over 40
Years
Of
Public office
?

[a777pilot]

Also a777pilot I you’re on my ignore list so I have no idea what you replied to me with but I’m sure it’s abkut how good the economy really is doing under Trump.

Poor typing, poor spelling, and poor grammar....I hope you keep me on your ignore list.

[ElNono]

I sadly think he has a great shot at re-election because I think the Democrats are just going to run on Trump being a liar and piece of shit. Which he is, but that kind of negative campaigning really plays into the both sides narrative the Republicans use so successfully to depress turnout.

It also plays to the victim card, which is Trump’s go to move, when they have much stronger points to run on...

[ElNono]

Also a777pilot I you’re on my ignore list so I have no idea what you replied to me with but I’m sure it’s abkut how good the economy really is doing under Trump.

Great idea, he’s here for the attention whoring anyways...

[Will Hunting]

Great idea, he’s here for the attention whoring anyways...
He’s another Avante type old man who looks for attention on the internet because his kids don’t talk to him anymore :lol

[ElNono]

He’s another Avante type old man who looks for attention on the internet because his kids don’t talk to him anymore :lol

Wouldn’t surprise me... don’t like to generalize, but baby boomers generally not only did a number on this country, they appear to be completely oblivious to it too. Especially the glorified government employee types :lol

[Will Hunting]

Wouldn’t surprise me... don’t like to generalize, but baby boomers generally not only did a number on this country, they appear to be completely oblivious to it too. Especially the glorified government employee types :lol
For all the shittiness of baby boomers, the “silent generation” is by far the worst. They were entering the workforce in the late 40s/early 50s (there’s never going to be a more prosperous economic time ever again) and there weren’t very many of them which made it that much easier to succeed, yet they’re on an even bigger high horse than baby boomers are about how “tough” they had it when they’re collectively the richest generation this country has ever seen and ever will see.

[DMC]

Pretty much. LOL at this nation's economy being strong when you had government workers having to go to food banks after missing one paycheck in Trump's retarded shutdown. How can people be considered middle class when a bunch of them are one missed paycheck from disaster?

Then again the economy is strong for the people who matter. Eg those who fund our elections.

Not for all, like anything else, but a bunch being one paycheck from disaster is because they live beyond their means, due to overreaching on their credit. They drive new cars, have new homes, kids have all the gadgets and name brand apparel. House has at least 3 televisions, they pay for cable service and internet. They might have Netflix and other streaming services. They might have Amazon prime accounts. They could have Costco memberships. Some of that seems like "meh" but all these bills add up to being broke if you miss a couple paychecks.

Most of us have been there at some point. Some people stay that way. Again, not all. Some are legit struggling due to circumstance mostly beyond their control, like geographical location, family issues, medical problems not brought about by lifestyle, etc...


But what do I know, I just pretend to be affluent to impress Koolaid Man.

[DMC]

Wouldn’t surprise me... don’t like to generalize, but baby boomers generally not only did a number on this country, they appear to be completely oblivious to it too. Especially the glorified government employee types :lol

They were the last of the resource hog generations. You'll see pictures of someone with 100 fish, 30 deer, something stupid like that and they claim they did it all the time. Now we have tight limits. They threw their trash out the car windows, smoked indoors holding babies, beat their wives (ok some good was done at least), molested their kids... pretty fucked up generation. Oh but those were the good old days when you could do all that and keep it on the down low with a pair of cheap sunglasses for the miss and the kid was just shy.

[baseline bum]

Not for all, like anything else, but a bunch being one paycheck from disaster is because they live beyond their means, due to overreaching on their credit. They drive new cars, have new homes, kids have all the gadgets and name brand apparel. House has at least 3 televisions, they pay for cable service and internet. They might have Netflix and other streaming services. They might have Amazon prime accounts. They could have Costco memberships. Some of that seems like "meh" but all these bills add up to being broke if you miss a couple paychecks.

Most of us have been there at some point. Some people stay that way. Again, not all. Some are legit struggling due to circumstance mostly beyond their control, like geographical location, family issues, medical problems not brought about by lifestyle, etc...


But what do I know, I just pretend to be affluent to impress Koolaid Man.

Meh I heard this same thing as an explanation in 2008 when Wall Street nearly drove us into another great depression. We have ridiculously expensive healthcare and education in this country which is a sinkhole a ton of our nation's wealth gets sucked into.

[Mitch]

Pretty high, he's inheriting a good situation. No new war, people think the economy is doing well, the left look out of touch after the Mueller debacle and dem candidates are weak.

Biden will win the nod, he will have less to go on than hillary while still having baggage. Trump will win in similar fashion, maybe trading a few states.

[Spurtacular]

This is that same ignorant shit that Stuart Varney tried to run when the pubs were crashing the economy 12-13 years ago.

Costs of goods have gone up exponentially, real wages haven’t. You’re also admitting what bullshit the American Dream, and also indicting the lack of Republican ideas.

It explains how dumb you are to have look at kool and naruto and think they’re lives are glamorous. You’re a sheep

:lol You really think the sun shines out of the Democrats' assholes, don't you?

[BD24]

Trump most likely gets reelected tbh. I hope I am wrong though.

[ElNono]

For all the shittiness of baby boomers, the “silent generation” is by far the worst. They were entering the workforce in the late 40s/early 50s (there’s never going to be a more prosperous economic time ever again) and there weren’t very many of them which made it that much easier to succeed, yet they’re on an even bigger high horse than baby boomers are about how “tough” they had it when they’re collectively the richest generation this country has ever seen and ever will see.


They were the last of the resource hog generations. You'll see pictures of someone with 100 fish, 30 deer, something stupid like that and they claim they did it all the time. Now we have tight limits. They threw their trash out the car windows, smoked indoors holding babies, beat their wives (ok some good was done at least), molested their kids... pretty fucked up generation. Oh but those were the good old days when you could do all that and keep it on the down low with a pair of cheap sunglasses for the miss and the kid was just shy.

It's mind boggling sometimes the lack of historical perspective these generations have. Basically, we had the pre-Bretton Woods system of the dollar pegged to the gold, and these generations basically funded all their excesses with post-Bretton Woods fiat money.

They were basically handed a pristine government credit card, completely loaded it, and now have the balls to bitch about the debt to later generations. Prototypical case of do as I say, not as I do.

[DMC]

This is that same ignorant shit that Stuart Varney tried to run when the pubs were crashing the economy 12-13 years ago.

Costs of goods have gone up exponentially, real wages haven’t. You’re also admitting what bullshit the American Dream, and also indicting the lack of Republican ideas.

It explains how dumb you are to have look at kool and naruto and think they’re lives are glamorous. You’re a sheep

"real wages".

This is the cry of the minimum wage worker. At age 55 you should have escaped that already, fattie.

[DMC]

Meh I heard this same thing as an explanation in 2008 when Wall Street nearly drove us into another great depression. We have ridiculously expensive healthcare and education in this country which is a sinkhole a ton of our nation's wealth gets sucked into.
The two issues aren't mutually exclusive. Healthcare costs are up, but at the same time people want at least the "average lifestyle" without a plan on how to get there. They just feel entitled to it. Just having retirement money is more than many if not most will ever accomplish financially.

[DMC]

Is that what you hope for. Is that why you have to make up a whole existence to impress kool and naruto? Is that why you lie about who you are? You’re stuck on s zarzamora under your moms porch.

And it’s not the cry of the minimum wage worker you welfare living piece of shit.

I have actually lived off of S Zarzamora near Applewhite blvd back in the day. Unlike you, apartment dweller off some Northwest thoroughfare, I climbed out of it. You'd need a Chinook helicopter to lift your fat ass out.

I live in Austin. I know you think that's affluent but you have "grown" to have low expectations. You likely collect disability because you're a dumpy fuck, probably claim carpal tunnel and fibromyalgia.

[koriwhat]

You live in Austin like spurty lives in the dominion. Neighbors with the admiral and all.

Sad that you have to make shit up to you to impress people.

:cry

[koriwhat]

Speaking of clowns making shit up. In your case, though, it has more to do with your basic level of how much you hate yourself, and what you are.

you got all that from an emoji you fucking retard wannabe armchair psychologist? you're a fucking dipshit bonerchamp. you make a case daily for how unhinged and how uneducated you truly are with each new reply coming from your crisco covered obese fat fucking marshmallow fingers.

[koriwhat]

Had nothing to do with your emoji, you loser. Had to do with the truth. You know you’re a worthless dogshit person.

That you aren’t smart enough to come up with any pitiful insults of your own, and have to depend on dmc and all the lies he tells to give you a comeback, is sad enough. But that you are as obsessed with your inadequacy as you are with black cock at the bus station should tell you how bleak your existence is.

Death should be welcome to you. You’re not worth anything here

the funniest thing of all is your claim that i read/took anything from dmc. there's been like 4 people the past 2 days calling you out as a fat fuck so own it you fat fuck! lmao you're such a fucking retard but that's nothing new to any of us here.

the bus station? last time i rode a bus was in miami like 5-6 yrs ago. keep trying with your lame weak ass jabs. :tu

yeah yeah yeah the death wish bs. you'll be first with high-cholesterol/clogged arteries so cheers to that!

[DMC]

Speaking of clowns making shit up. In your case, though, it has more to do with your basic level of how much you hate yourself, and what you are.

Who the fuck lies about living in Austin?

:lol you low expectation having motherfucker

[Xevious]

They're already rolling out the poor shaming playbook. It is going to get ugly. People have forgotten what it was like in 2007 and 2008.
It isn't poor shaming to say that the American middle class over extends itself every day, especially when times are perceived to be good. People buy houses they can't afford, drive cars they can't afford, eat out on credit, go on vacation on credit, etc. Everything is a-okay as long as they continue to make payments. Once there is a lapse in paychecks though...

People who really are poor are probably better equipped for an economic downturn than the middle class is.

[RandomGuy]

There was a time not all that long before the last election when a lot of people thought that Trump had no real shot at winning, but he’s sat in the White House ever since. What do you think his chances of a second term are? If the Democrats want to defeat him, what candidate should they run?

he won by 77,000 votes out of 130,000,000

He is far less popular now, and has energized his opponents in a way I have not seen in my lifetime. 2018 mid-terms were the canary in the coal mine.

[boutons_deux]

Donald Trump’s electoral map has shifted dramatically. How does it bode for his 2020 chances?

Shifting trends in the electoral map since Trump's inauguration leave no one confident in his re-election chances

this group largely had a positive opinion of Trump in 2016 — 85 percent of these voters approved of him, the survey found.

But these opinions have significantly shifted. In 2019, only 66 percent of these voters still approved of Trump — a 19-point drop.

“Even small movement among these voters — who represented 9 percent of voters in 2016 — may prove significant heading into the 2020 presidential election,”

the president started out in early 2017 with a net positive approval rating:


PA: +10
WI: +6
MI: +7


But by April 2019, he was significantly underwater in each of these states:


PA: -7
WI: -13
MI: -10


There are other states where he’s also looking weak.

In Ohio, he’s at -4;

Arizona, -7;

Florida, -2;

North Carolina, -2;

Iowa, -8.

Meanwhile, there are no states that Hillary Clinton won in 2016 in which Trump now has a positive approval rating.

https://www.salon.com/2019/05/10/donald-trumps-electoral-map-has-shifted-dramatically-how-does-it-bode-for-his-2020-chances_partner/ (https://www.salon.com/2019/05/10/donald-trumps-electoral-map-has-shifted-dramatically-how-does-it-bode-for-his-2020-chances_partner/)

[almostakeeper]

With all the great things President Trump has done for the American people, he should easily win. The only worry I have is the new way the dems use to cheat, like voter harvesting. So far Trump has kept most of his promises to the people that voted for him, and all the dems have is racism, racism, racism.