The Spurs Surprisingly Straightforward Free Agency Outlook

[timvp]

On the surface, the San Antonio Spurs appear to be a team in the midst of a chaotic transition period less than a year after their franchise player abruptly demanded a trade. But digging deeper, it becomes clear that the franchise is destined for a remarkably unremarkable offseason. Wholesale changes are unlikely to be made until next summer, at the earliest.

While it's true that the coaching staff would undoubtedly prefer to bring back a mostly intact roster in order to foster the much-ballyhooed corporate knowledge that was lost in last offseason's upheaval, the leading reason why this summer promises to be a quiet one can be found in the dollars and cents.

The Spurs will be busy in the 2019 NBA Draft, with two first round picks (picks 19 and 29) and a second rounder (49th overall), but free agency could very well be limited to one significant addition. In fact, with how the salaries add up, San Antonio is actually incentivized to keep the team together.

https://i.imgur.com/Hfh9ToX.jpg

The Spurs have 11 returning players under contract, plus they're still on the hook for approximately $5.1 million of Pau Gasol's contract after buying him out back in March. All told, San Antonio has a total of approximately $99 million in salaries heading into next season. The salary cap for the 2019-20 season is set to be $109 million.

The team's only free agent of note is Rudy Gay, who is coming off of a one-year, $10 million deal. As always, the Spurs can either re-sign Gay or renounce their rights to him in order to open the most salary cap room possible.

However, here's where things get a bit counterintuitive. In a scenario where the Spurs renounce Gay and don't use their first round picks (either trade the picks away or select draft-and-stash prospects) to save money, the maximum amount of cap space they can open up is a shade under $9 million.

On the other hand, if the Spurs re-sign Gay for a market value amount, they will qualify for the mid-level exception of a little bit more than $9 million. Not only is the MLE worth more than the cap space they can open up, they'd be free to proceed in the draft without concern for the salary cap implications.

Thus, the math ends up being simple: it's better to re-sign Gay and have more money to work with in free agency than to lose Gay, lose draft flexibility and end up with less money for free agents.

What makes the decision even easier is the fact that bringing back Gay is likely a beneficial move.

1. The 32-year-old is coming off perhaps the most efficient season of his career. He set career-highs in two-point percentage, three-point percentage and rebounding rate. His assist rate was up 50% over his first season with the Spurs, while his usage rate dropped to its lowest point since his rookie season.

2. The Spurs were demonstratively better when Gay played well. Including the playoffs, the Spurs were only 16-18 when Gay scored ten points or less. When he scored more than ten points, the Spurs were 35-20. That's the difference between a 34.5-win pace and a 52.2-win pace.

3. Advanced statistics smiled upon Gay. When he was on the court during the regular season, the Spurs outscored opponents by 4.0 points per 100 possessions. When he was on the bench, the Spurs were outscored by 0.5 points per 100 possessions. RPM (real plus-minus) graded Gay as the team's second best player on a per-minute basis and a top ten player at his position in the league, no matter if you classify him as a small forward or a power forward.

4. Considering Gay relies mostly on size and length to score in isolation situations, he should age reasonably well. He'll have to transition more and more to being a full-time power forward but he appears to be capable. It's not a stretch to imagine he could navigate down the Robert Horry-like route: enter the league as a SF and extend his career as a PF.

5. He fits the DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge timeline. It's very unlikely that he'd command an extended contract. Additionally, by all accounts he not only gets along with DeRozan and Aldridge, he serves a mentorship role for the team's up-and-coming players.

Unless a team falls in love with Gay and offers him a lucrative, multi-season contract, it shouldn't be too complicated to bring him back into the fold. Would a team give him three-plus seasons at the MLE? Unlikely. Would a team with salary cap space use it on Gay? Even more unlikely.

Gay made $8.4 million in his first season with the Spurs. This year, he made $10.1 million in his second season. When free agency begins, the Spurs can offer him a one-year, $12.1 million contract. If that doesn't get it done, the Spurs can partially guarantee a second season to match outside offers.

Preferably, the Spurs are able to get Gay back on a one-year deal to maximize their potential salary cap space next summer. However, a two-year contract is palatable, as it corresponds with what is likely to be the DeRozan and Aldridge window.

Going longer than two years on a Gay contract would be unwise. That said, if it comes down to it, the Spurs can use their Early Bird rights to sign Gay to a fully guaranteed two-year contract worth more than $36 million. That should be more than enough to match any offer he gets on the open market.

After the draft and with the inevitable re-signing of Gay, the Spurs could turn their attention to how to best use the MLE. While they are allowed to split the $9-plus million MLE, with how the roster is constructed, it'd likely be best to consolidate their spending and use it on a single player.

Sure, the roster isn't exactly brimming with talent, but it does -- due specifically to the return of Dejounte Murray and the hopeful ascension of Lonnie Walker IV -- have most of the available minutes already accounted for going into next season.

https://i.imgur.com/EGEOvRk.jpg

Even with those lowball estimates for each player's minutes per game, there are only 16 more minutes available for a tenth man. Considering it's unlikely that any of those nine players will be dropped completely from the rotation barring a notable addition, there's already a minutes crunch -- and that's not even factoring in Walker, Marco Belinelli, Chimezie Metu or any of the three draft picks.

Viewing the roster by position paints a similar picture.

https://i.imgur.com/IlZmUFM.jpg

Point guard and shooting guard are already stuffed to the gills. If another player is added at either one of those positions, it'd probably do more harm than good as a deserving youngster (namely Derrick White, Murray or Walker) would see a minute reduction.

It's now clear that DeRozan is a full-time small forward; during the playoffs, that was basically the only position he played. Considering his rebounding prowess and his deceptively poor lateral quickness on defense, SF makes the most sense for him going forward -- and he's going to eat a lot of those minutes as long as he's around.

Adding a bigman would come with the consequence of negatively impacting minutes for either Davis Bertans, Jakob Poeltl or Gay.

How should the Spurs spend the mid-level exception? The most obvious answer is to use the MLE on a defensive, rangy wing to fortify the backup small forward and power forward spots. San Antonio doesn't have a defensive small forward on their roster, nor do they have an athletic power forward who can both move out on the perimeter defensively and hold their own in the lane. But note, adding such a player for the MLE likely bumps Bertans out of the rotation -- or possibly, but less likely, Poeltl (if the MLE player can also play center) or Gay (if he's a scorer).

The other, less pressing, need is a third string center (unless Metu takes a giant step forward). However, it'd be a questionable decision to invest too much here because, barring injury, it's virtually impossible that the player would be in the rotation during the 2019-20 season. And in today's NBA, third string centers are a dime a dozen.

If the front office is pleased with the current depth of the rotation, the other leading option is to use part of the MLE to bring over 2015 first round draft pick Nikola Milutinov. The 24-year-old center prospect is highly regarded ... but a rotation featuring both him and Poeltl isn't going to happen as long as Aldridge is still around, so this would be a move done with the post-Aldridge future in mind. The rest of the MLE, in this scenario, could be used to bring in a long-term prospect that may help the transition when the DeRozan and Aldridge window closes.

Compared to most Spurs summers, this one appears to be easy to predict, as there just aren't many avenues to travel down that make a whole lot of sense. In forthcoming writeups, I'll investigate various topics including:

-The best fits in the 2019 NBA Draft
-Specific MLE possibilities
-More on the pros and cons of opening up cap room this summer
-Player by player reviews and projections
-Estimating Milutinov's NBA value
-How long to extend the DeRozan and Aldridge window
-The nuclear option to blow up the team next summer
-Max free agent hunting in 2021

[lmbebo]

Thanks! Still hoping you'll leak your insider info on the break up from last summer.

[Trainwreck2100]

If GS has to pony up that luxury tax money Spurs owners gonna get a fat check

[Degoat]

I’d imagine the spurs split up the MLE among 2 players but is there a potential player worth giving the entire MLE to this summer??

[illusioNtEk]

How the fuck is Derrick white in the bottom of the list and patty is the 3rd highest paid.

[Degoat]

I like Davis but 7 mill is kinda pricy for a guy who got benched in the playoffs too lol

[Degoat]

Marcus Morris, Aminu, Ariza, Wes Matthews, Rodney Hood.. one of them being best case scenario or somebody else??

[Rockguard]

Thanks! Still hoping you'll leak your insider info on the break up from last summer.

Yes please would like to know also.
Maybe we can start a #kawhiback2SA

[KGB POP]

Thanks! Still hoping you'll leak your insider info on the break up from last summer.

Yes, I agree. Trading top a 3 player who still had a year on his contract is not exactly indefensible, but it would be nice to know the context in which the decision was made. Specifically, why exactly did the Spurs feel the situation with He-Who-Shall-Not-Be-Named was untenable? It's a fair question the local media has not reported on at all.

With that being said, this post by TimVP is more informative than anything the Express has put out since Ludden left.

[Dennis the Menace]

How the fuck is Derrick white in the bottom of the list and patty is the 3rd highest paid.

Meet Greg Popovich. His responsibilities include head coach, the front office, and the local alcoholic.

[tbdog]

In my preview post, I said the Spurs would use the the full mle on a combo 3d forward, eg Morris, trade 2 of Mills, Forbes, Beli, Bertans for a defensive wing, and resign Gay to a 3 year contract.

[slick'81]

Agreed on no more then two seasons for gay

[Chinook]

The Spurs aren't good enough to need to run a nine-man rotation. Even the 2014 Spurs had sizeable 10th- and 11th-man contributions from Joseph and Ayres, respectively. Even in Murray's "breakout season" in 2017, dude averaged 22 mpg. White averaged 26. It makes no sense to slate them for an 10mpg increase, especially considering Murray's injury. It also doesn't help that you essentially have White, Murray and DeRozan playing together a ton, and there's a really good chance that doesn't happen. In the very least, it's not beyond a "low-ball" projection to assume one of White or Murray will come off the bench and play at 24-ish mpg role. Manu did it. Obviously, you can counter by saying that he would have played more if he were younger, but the point stands that those 22ish minutes he played were plenty for a sizeable role.

I think there's an obvious place for a new rotation player, especially if you leave Beli out of the "locks". Two of Mills/Forbes/Murray/White will start, and the other two will be on the bench. DeRozan and Aldridge will start. Gay will be on the bench. Even if you also have Bertans as a lock (and I don't; he's likely competing with Beli and Walker and maybe a draft pick of free agent), that still leaves a forward spot open, likely the starting one between DMDR and LMA. Of course, if the team wants to keep the same rotation plus Murray, then they can do so and not add anyone. But that's still a 10-man rotation, and it's not nearly out of the question that the club could use the MLE or draft to upgrade some of the weaker spots in that rotation.

But here's the kicker: Let's say PATFO decides to not have Beli or Bertans (or Forbes or Mills) in the rotation. All of the sudden, trading them is an option. I got the sense last off-season that Bertans wasn't happy with his role, and while it seemed like he was going to be good this year, I think getting benched in the playoffs will wear on that trust. Beli of course is old and not all that great. Very expendable, even though he's great when he's great. Anyway, trading any of those guys either opens up cap space or opens up paths to new rotation players beyond free agency. If the team is desperate enough for space to stash a top-20 pick, they could likely use that pick or the Toronto pick to really make more cap space. You make the moves to open up $20ish Million, and you might be in the market for a different player than Gay. Or maybe you strike a deal for a rotation player that better fits what the team needs.

I don't think it's straight-forward at all. I mean, obviously, the team is likely to be business as usual and not make any splash. But that's because that's how PATFO operates, not because they don't have options. You can argue the team needs to make an aggressive move if they aren't going to blow up their core, and they have the pieces and incentives to make such a move.

[phxspurfan]

lets do Chernobyl on this thing! Nuclear!

[Rusty]

that Patty Mills contract:rollin

my goodness.....no wonder Kawhi left

[spurs10]

Great information, thanks! Why wouldn't Gay, or his agent rather, not push hard for the team to indeed use their Early Bird rights and do everything possible to get the two year fully guaranteed +36 million? I think PATFO does indeed want him back and it will likely be his last big contract. Again thanks for this breakdown, makes sense.

[timvp]

In my preview post, I said the Spurs would use the the full mle on a combo 3d forward, eg Morris, trade 2 of Mills, Forbes, Beli, Bertans for a defensive wing, and resign Gay to a 3 year contract.

Good stuff; I enjoyed the read. Although, I disagree regarding Gay. If he demands a three-year deal, you have to let him walk. One is preferred and two has to be the max when you factor in the long-term contract planning.

[timvp]

Great information, thanks! Why wouldn't Gay, or his agent rather, not push hard for the team to indeed use their Early Bird rights and do everything possible to get the two year fully guaranteed +36 million? I think PATFO does indeed want him back and it will likely be his last big contract. Again thanks for this breakdown, makes sense.

It'll come down to leverage. The Spurs would have to see a reason to budge from the one-year, $12 million. I can see a partially guaranteed second year if Gay is offered two-year contracts at the MLE. For the Spurs to get all the way to two years and $36 million, there'd have to be a team out there offering three or four years at the MLE ... and that's unlikely given Gay's age and injury history.

[spurs10]

It'll come down to leverage. The Spurs would have to see a reason to budge from the one-year, $12 million. I can see a partially guaranteed second year if Gay is offered two-year contracts at the MLE. For the Spurs to get all the way to two years and $36 million, there'd have to be a team out there offering three or four years at the MLE ... and that's unlikely given Gay's age and injury history. Gotcha, makes sense. Thanks! :toast

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

I don’t see that much playing time for Murray after the injury he’s had and I’d expect him to sit out at least 15 games. That plus inevitable injuries will open up another rotation spot, whether for Walker or a MLE guy. I like Jeremy Lamb for that role although he might be more expensive.

On the other hand it’s not impossible that they don’t use the MLE at all if they value 2020 cap space too much albeit not sure who they might target in an awful FA class. I’d be happy for if they use it on Milutinov if he’s fine accepting something like 3yr/15 mil. He’s good enough and has the NBA body to play right away. I don’t believe they’ll go in the season with only Metu as a back up center, in fact I don’t think they even view him as a center but more of a homeless man Siakam. The need for a back up center will create a bit if a roster spots problem if we’re assuming they go the safest route - keep everyone, re-sign Gay, add two picks, use MLE. Something’s got to give, whether it’s a 2 for 1 trade, a draft and stash or something. I can also see Bertans being traded somewhere into cap space, maybe back to Indiana. Beli could be an option too if Walker steps up.

Like Chinook said there’s a very serious possibility that the projected starting lineup doesn’t work due to poor spacing, so balancing the roster better will be very important and with the minutes crunch there could be many options to make more moves and come up with a not so changed team talent-wise but much more balanced.

[apalisoc_9]

Good stuff; I enjoyed the read. Although, I disagree regarding Gay. If he demands a three-year deal, you have to let him walk. One is preferred and two has to be the max when you factor in the long-term contract planning.

Yeah signing gay for three years is silly considering players like White would be entering their primes in that third year and Derozan will mostly likely be declining as a player if they do choose to resign him.

The best case scenario here is to just sign gay for a year but the more likely scenario is a two year contract with a partially guaranteed money for the 2nd.

If they can retain gay, they'll likely attempt to add more penetration skills coming from wing player but will probably be content with a any wing that can potentially help them in the playoffs.

No way should the spurs use any of that MLE for Militunov. Potelt is fine as a center. They'll sign a wing and draft a wing at 29

[timvp]

The Spurs aren't good enough to need to run a nine-man rotation. Even the 2014 Spurs had sizeable 10th- and 11th-man contributions from Joseph and Ayres, respectively.Didn't mean to insinuate that Pop would run a 9-man rotation. The Spurs have gone at least 10 deep for more than a decade now.

I was merely pointing out that even after lowballing the top nine players' minutes, there's only a little bit of room left at the dinner table.


Even in Murray's "breakout season" in 2017, dude averaged 22 mpg. White averaged 26. It makes no sense to slate them for an 10mpg increase, especially considering Murray's injury. It also doesn't help that you essentially have White, Murray and DeRozan playing together a ton, and there's a really good chance that doesn't happen. In the very least, it's not beyond a "low-ball" projection to assume one of White or Murray will come off the bench and play at 24-ish mpg role. Manu did it. Obviously, you can counter by saying that he would have played more if he were younger, but the point stands that those 22ish minutes he played were plenty for a sizeable role.

1) Murray averaged closer to 27 MPG after he became a starter. Pop has continually gone out of his way to stress how big of a part of the future Murray is so I do think 28 MPG qualifies as a lowball. A torn ACL really isn't a load management situation. Playing him 28 MPG wouldn't put him in any extra danger, especially since he'll be about a year out from the surgery date by the time next season starts. If Murray starts, which is likely (IMO, at least), he'll probably average closer to 30 MPG.

2) There would literally be riots if White came off the bench and only averaged 24 minutes per game. Like literal riots :lol

3) Ginobili came off the bench and averaged 28-30 MPG in his younger days ... and he was a player who was easily fatigued. Don't see how that points to either White or Murray averaging "22ish" minutes.


I think there's an obvious place for a new rotation player, especially if you leave Beli out of the "locks". Two of Mills/Forbes/Murray/White will start, and the other two will be on the bench. DeRozan and Aldridge will start. Gay will be on the bench. Even if you also have Bertans as a lock (and I don't; he's likely competing with Beli and Walker and maybe a draft pick of free agent), that still leaves a forward spot open, likely the starting one between DMDR and LMA. Of course, if the team wants to keep the same rotation plus Murray, then they can do so and not add anyone. But that's still a 10-man rotation, and it's not nearly out of the question that the club could use the MLE or draft to upgrade some of the weaker spots in that rotation.Yeah, as far as I can tell, we came to the same conclusions here.


But here's the kicker: Let's say PATFO decides to not have Beli or Bertans (or Forbes or Mills) in the rotation. All of the sudden, trading them is an option. I got the sense last off-season that Bertans wasn't happy with his role, and while it seemed like he was going to be good this year, I think getting benched in the playoffs will wear on that trust. Beli of course is old and not all that great. Very expendable, even though he's great when he's great. Anyway, trading any of those guys either opens up cap space or opens up paths to new rotation players beyond free agency. If the team is desperate enough for space to stash a top-20 pick, they could likely use that pick or the Toronto pick to really make more cap space. You make the moves to open up $20ish Million, and you might be in the market for a different player than Gay. Or maybe you strike a deal for a rotation player that better fits what the team needs.I see where you're coming from but it's difficult to come up with an equation that makes sense. On one hand, you can re-sign Gay, use your draft picks however you want and still have the entire MLE to spend. Is there really a realistic scenario out there where you let Gay walk, use your assets to salary dump two or three players (in a realistic scenario, you probably would need to trade away both first rounders to even have hope of opening up $20 million) and find a player to add who makes it all worthwhile? I just don't see it. Are the Spurs one $20 million free agent away (while subtracting Gay, at least) from being a championship contender? That would need to be the case if you're going to throw away assets in a win-now move.

And that's another reason why re-signing Gay makes sense: not only do they avoid wasting assets in the short-term, they keep the books clean for the long-term while remaining in playoff contention -- and given the DeRozan trade, that's their preferred route.


I don't think it's straight-forward at all. I mean, obviously, the team is likely to be business as usual and not make any splash. But that's because that's how PATFO operates, not because they don't have options. You can argue the team needs to make an aggressive move if they aren't going to blow up their core, and they have the pieces and incentives to make such a move.Personally, I'd rather the Spurs keep the tinder dry, their assets plush and wait for a better time to make a splash. With a team built around DeRozan and Aldridge, I don't see them being an "aggressive" move away from taking a big step forward. Patience, IMO.

[vander]

If GS has to pony up that luxury tax money Spurs owners gonna get a fat check
Don't teams have to be under the cap to get that money?

[superbigtime]

This is awesome. Thx for addressing the Milutinov mystery.

[kobyz]

To me going for another year of treadmill team like op suggest to achieve at best first round exit is pointless...
there should be two legitimate plans for the off-season: 1. trying to unload Bertans/Bellinelli/Mills using the draft picks and young assets to open room for max player 2. trading away DeMar and LMA and go tanking...

[Raven]

we really don't have anything to work with. trade belinelli for a punch in the face, resign gay on a weak 10Mish contract and that's about it. Hopefully lonnie and murray provide the needed spark.

[sananspursfan21]

We’re really hinging on the development of the young guys as our biggest offseason moves. As much as I love the thrill of new players and analyzing their impact, this is really good. Time for the team to continue gelling, let the young guys improve, and hopefully we’ll get to see a healthy Murray do some damage :flag:

[duncan2150]

Nice read ��

i also think the Spurs will be patient as always and as pop said few days ago they will not make a lot of mooves

what i see is : 1/ resign gay 2/ draft or sign a sf/pf and a pf/c

that will probably make beli and Bertans out of the rotation but imo they will stay and one will go during the year

the only thing that could change things is if they draft a pg or sg they really like and who can play next year... that could unload mills or Forbes...

[TXstbobcat]

How the fuck is Derrick white in the bottom of the list and patty is the 3rd highest paid.

white is on a rookie scale contract and Mills is on an overpaid contract.

[MaNu4Tres]

Didn't mean to insinuate that Pop would run a 9-man rotation. The Spurs have gone at least 10 deep for more than a decade now.

I was merely pointing out that even after lowballing the top nine players' minutes, there's only a little bit of room left at the dinner table.



1) Murray averaged closer to 27 MPG after he became a starter. Pop has continually gone out of his way to stress how big of a part of the future Murray is so I do think 28 MPG qualifies as a lowball. A torn ACL really isn't a load management situation. Playing him 28 MPG wouldn't put him in any extra danger, especially since he'll be about a year out from the surgery date by the time next season starts. If Murray starts, which is likely (IMO, at least), he'll probably average closer to 30 MPG.

2) There would literally be riots if White came off the bench and only averaged 24 minutes per game. Like literal riots :lol

3) Ginobili came off the bench and averaged 28-30 MPG in his younger days ... and he was a player who was easily fatigued. Don't see how that points to either White or Murray averaging "22ish" minutes.

Yeah, as far as I can tell, we came to the same conclusions here.

I see where you're coming from but it's difficult to come up with an equation that makes sense. On one hand, you can re-sign Gay, use your draft picks however you want and still have the entire MLE to spend. Is there really a realistic scenario out there where you let Gay walk, use your assets to salary dump two or three players (in a realistic scenario, you probably would need to trade away both first rounders to even have hope of opening up $20 million) and find a player to add who makes it all worthwhile? I just don't see it. Are the Spurs one $20 million free agent away (while subtracting Gay, at least) from being a championship contender? That would need to be the case if you're going to throw away assets in a win-now move.

And that's another reason why re-signing Gay makes sense: not only do they avoid wasting assets in the short-term, they keep the books clean for the long-term while remaining in playoff contention -- and given the DeRozan trade, that's their preferred route.

Personally, I'd rather the Spurs keep the tinder dry, their assets plush and wait for a better time to make a splash. With a team built around DeRozan and Aldridge, I don't see them being an "aggressive" move away from taking a big step forward. Patience, IMO.

Agreed on all points.

I do think SA will have to trade a guard though.

I think Bellini (& Metu if needed) to Philly for Simmons & one of their 2nds makes a great deal of sense around the draft.. Especially with this FA class being relatively weak, and how Sixers can go over cap on their own FAs. SA can immediately waive Simmons a few days later ( July 1st is the date his contract is guaranteed for the 19/20 season).

Spurs could use the pick for a draft and stash such as Samanic, or Sirvydis....or pick Jontay Porter/Brazdeikis and put him on a Blossomgame path initially for the first year).

[Dex]

I’d imagine the spurs split up the MLE among 2 players but is there a potential player worth giving the entire MLE to this summer??

It's hard to imagine how two more players fit into the rotation, especially if the Spurs draft anybody worth getting minutes as a rookie (long shot, I know).

I'd rather put it all towards taking one good shot at a defensive SF or PF to round out the roster.

[pad300]

I could see a path to a 3 or 4 year contract for Rudy. In TimVP's scenario, he's getting $12-13 million guaranteed for 1 year. The "worst case" presented was a fully guaranteed 2 year for $36M. But if he wants the guaranteed money and is willing to stay long term, something like a full MLE contract (say starting at $9M, 8% raises over 4 years = $40.3M. Or try and get really clever, start at say $12M, but 8% decreases annually = $42.3M ) is something I could see the Spurs offering... IMO, it wouldn't be terrible, because I think you can still have a max in year in 2021-22 ( 20-21 won't be a big FA year, Derozan will only opt out if he's made a promise of some sort of an extension, and thus keeping Aldridge makes sense). But in 21-22, even assuming a combined $34M annually for extended Poetl and Murray (roughly as much as we can do and stay under the lux tax in 20-21), we are still looking at approximately a max slot available...

[Chinook]

1) Murray averaged closer to 27 MPG after he became a starter. Pop has continually gone out of his way to stress how big of a part of the future Murray is so I do think 28 MPG qualifies as a lowball. A torn ACL really isn't a load management situation. Playing him 28 MPG wouldn't put him in any extra danger, especially since he'll be about a year out from the surgery date by the time next season starts. If Murray starts, which is likely (IMO, at least), he'll probably average closer to 30 MPG.

2) There would literally be riots if White came off the bench and only averaged 24 minutes per game. Like literal riots :lol

I don't agree with this. Murray played 27 mpg in starts because there was no viable alternative. Same with White. I don't mean to imply that the minutes weren't deserved, but there's little doubt in my mind that if they're both healthy and ready to go, they'll take minutes from each other rather than increase their minutes. I certainly don't project Murray as getting 30ish mpg just 'cause. There's a big difference between getting a lot of minutes between Mills and Green or with Gasol (and his elite shooting that year) on the floor, and thinking he'll get those same minutes with White, DeRozan and Poeltl. I'm not going to say I know what goes on in Pop's head, but dude thought Murray/DeRozan/Gay/Aldridge/Gasol was going to work. Just because he wants something doesn't mean it's going to end up working out.


3) Ginobili came off the bench and averaged 28-30 MPG in his younger days ... and he was a player who was easily fatigued. Don't see how that points to either White or Murray averaging "22ish" minutes.

That's why I specifically countered the "Manu couldn't play more" rebuttal. It's not that Pop held Manu back, so he can hold anyone back. It's that a featured 22mpg role can feel as impactful as a 30mpg role. The idea that one of those guys playing a focused bench role as a bad thing is wrong-headed. Honestly, I think it's the best use of Murray's skill-set to play with a Mills/Beli or Bertans/Gay/Poeltl second unit. They need his energy and and defense in a way that the starting unit (with a defensive forward playing PF) probably doesn't. I don't expect DJM to like it, but it's a great way to make sure that one of the team's best PGs is on the court at all times, and it maximizes the time Murray isn't on the court with DeRozan.


I see where you're coming from but it's difficult to come up with an equation that makes sense. On one hand, you can re-sign Gay, use your draft picks however you want and still have the entire MLE to spend. Is there really a realistic scenario out there where you let Gay walk, use your assets to salary dump two or three players (in a realistic scenario, you probably would need to trade away both first rounders to even have hope of opening up $20 million) and find a player to add who makes it all worthwhile? I just don't see it. Are the Spurs one $20 million free agent away (while subtracting Gay, at least) from being a championship contender? That would need to be the case if you're going to throw away assets in a win-now move.

I think there's a legit chance that Gay walks. He's already shown that he's not going to just take the highest offer by opting out in Sacramento despite being injured. The Warriors may end up losing one of their core "middle position" players this off-season. Do you think that if, say, Durant walks that GS will just roll over and die? Nope. They'll be trying to woo the best free-agent forward to replace him. Same is probably true if they trade away Draymond. For a guy who gave up money to try to contend, do you think that can't persuade him? If you do, I disagree. I think Gay will have his share of suitors this summer, and unless he now has different values, I think there's a good chance he moves on.

As far as scenarios where the team creates cap space, I agree it's more than just a little tricky. Honestly, it's something they should have started trying to work during the season had that been their goal. They probably could have off-loaded Beli and Bertans for expirings and small assets, in addition to either paying to dump Gasol or stretching his last year when they waived him. With all those things and a Mills dump completed, they could have freed up a max slot while not having a gutted roster. Now, it would be significantly harder to find trades. Teams likely wouldn't take Beli into cap space. Gasol is dead money. Dumping Mills isn't harder, but there's less payoff in it now. Do I think a legit top-level free agent could push the Spurs over the top, even minus Gay, Beli, Bertans and Mills? Yes. I trust PATFO enough to fill in cracks in that rotation. Do I think at this point going for a free agent is a better option than just reupping Gay and signing an MLE player? No. The more mid-sized contracts the team collects, the more options they have for later trades.


And that's another reason why re-signing Gay makes sense: not only do they avoid wasting assets in the short-term, they keep the books clean for the long-term while remaining in playoff contention -- and given the DeRozan trade, that's their preferred route.

Personally, I'd rather the Spurs keep the tinder dry, their assets plush and wait for a better time to make a splash. With a team built around DeRozan and Aldridge, I don't see them being an "aggressive" move away from taking a big step forward. Patience, IMO.

I'm not sure that they Spurs are anti-tank as much as Pop just thinks he can win with his core. Obviously, they haven't gone into full win-now mode, but they also haven't done the shopping around the edges that mid-tier teams can do in order to collect assets. They were supposedly aggressive in the draft last year in their attempt to trade up for Lonnie. We'll see if they try to make a similar move to acquire an impact player. They have more assets this time around with 29 and the basic assumption that an SA future first is worth more than it's been for a long time.

[DesignatedT]

Trade Mills and Forbes. Use MLE for another wing.

[Strategic]

I agree that Spurs should try to keep Rudy Gay, but looking at the final 8 teams still playing this year, I think there is a team that might be interested in him. The Blazers may see him as a worthwhile risk considering their dependence on Aminu. Aminu is a more active perimeter defender but that’s about the only advantage that I see he holds over Gay. Portland may still have the ass over LA defecting to the Spurs so wouldn’t be surprised if they offered Rudy an option. I only mention the final 8 teams because of older free agents’ wanting to play for highly competitive teams and I don’t think he would be that much of a difference maker on a team that’s just knocking on the door. Hoping he stays.

I’m happy to see it looks like you think Murray and White can co-exist on the court. Some of the prolific posters here think they have to compete for the same minutes. Maybe, we’ll see. It’s pretty clear that the best guard combos in the West right now are playing at Golden State and Portland. Here’s hoping White and Murray’s defensive skills, along with their youthfulness, will balance out a chunk of the Spurs deficiency in this part of the game.

I would be be disappointed and surprised if PATFO holds onto Belinelli, and more so if Marco wants to stay. Why would he?Also, I’d be disappointed, but not surprised if they stay with Mills. Not kidding myself though, Patty will be here.

[TheGreatYacht]

Crater face said bringing Gay back is the team's first priority.

Expect another off season of the same. 30 year Olds seeking one last pay check here in San Antonio and PATFO willingly handing them out.

[8FOR!3]

I'm perfectly fine with Mills/Belinelli/Bertans getting minutes in the regular season. But I don't think any of them are good playoff players at this point and I'm not sure Bertans ever will be. Forbes hit some big shots, I think he wins out of those guys and has higher upside as a scorer. I think if you move Rudy Gay to be the backup 4 and use the MLE on a 3&D wing you'll be good to go. Wouldn't even hate if we spent it on a backup point guard. White/Murray should both be starting imo and Forbes can be the backup SG until Walker is ready (or they can share spot minutes) but neither of them are point guards and the new could address the wing position in the draft.

[JeffDuncan]

I hope they get a second medical opinion on Rudy Gay's feet, before he's offered another contract. If he gets medical clearance, ok.

The team needs a real backup for LMA. That could be the spot hardest to fill.

[Trainwreck2100]

Don't teams have to be under the cap to get that money?

yes and as OP says they would be 10 mil below, GS's repeater tax will be huge if Durant stays.

[ZeusWillJudge]

Damn nice write up, and a great way to look at the offseason.

The biggest problem is that the two needs you think the Spurs could address are the two types of players most in demand - rangy wings, and PF's who can work out on the perimeter and hold their own in the paint. Getting a good one of either for the MLE is going to be quite a trick.

Neither Aldridge nor DDR's contracts can be moved this year. And Pop seems to be married to Bryn and Patty. And that means that, barring some miracle, there is a group of players that is good but not quiiiite good enough. Next year's team is most likely trying to push their way into the WCF the way this year's team tried to push their way into the second round.

Bertans and Belli don't have much trade value, except that they are both expiring and their contracts at least provide some heft for matching. So could the Spurs spin off one of the young guys as a sweetener in a trade? Already said that Brynn looks off limits, and Pop's comments say that Walker is too. LW is a big question mark because of the injury and lack of exposure. That leaves White - and the way Pop effectively benched him in the playoffs sort of makes him look possible. I'd hate to lose him, but maybe if it netted one of the pieces the team really needs? White and Murray minutes look to be a logjam, in light of the carve-out minutes for Mills and Forbes. Moving one of them for a piece that fits elsewhere has to be a consideration for PATFO, even though they like both players.

The same goes for the draft. Could the Spurs use one of the young guys (White) as a sweetener to move up in the draft? A better question would be whether there is a player outside of the top 3-4 that could get minutes under Pop as a Rookie? Not likely, and the Spurs couldn't trade up nearly that far. I thought Chuma Okeke might be one - that rangy wing who could get by on his defense for a while (and they wouldn't have had to trade up for him, I don't think). I don't see any others that jump out at me.

I was pretty confident that this would be the year the Spurs bring Milutinov over. I like him even more with the way Poeltl arrived, because now the Spurs wouldn't be too dependent on him if he can't make the transition. But if I was Milutinov, I would be looking at Poeltl and thinking, "There goes my minutes." I understand a player wanting to test himself against the best. But let's face it, those guys jump the pond looking to cash a giant-sized paycheck in a couple of years. And that won't happen if they can't showcase their talents.

I wish I thought they would bring in a competent PG, and find a way to spin out Mills. It won't happen, but you can't take the dream away from me.

[mo7888]

Love the write up and the back and forth thought process with our posters... good stuff...

[ECOV]

Excited for next season . future looks great ��

[GreekSpursfan]

Unlike others i don't expect much from Murray next season, i would give Gay a one year contract and see if he bites. I don't see Gay lasting long as you say in whatever position, even power forward. He's very slow and will only get slower and a big concern injury-wise. This team as presently constracted will not do much damage going forward because we have to take into account the moves and jumps other teams will make, we don't play alone. Denver is gonna be even better next season, Sacto as well, the damn Lakers. We still don't have a franchise player to build around. The only path i see is finish these next two season as the treadmill team we have become and then without Derozan, LMA and Pop we can finally tank to get the No1 option. Unless someone from the young guys emerges as The man, i don't see any other path tbh

[SpurSpike]

I hope they get a second medical opinion on Rudy Gay's feet, before he's offered another contract. If he gets medical clearance, ok.

The team needs a real backup for LMA. That could be the spot hardest to fill.

I really like Rudy but he could benefit by shedding 10-15 lbs. I hope we keep him but I was watching a slow motion video of Rudy making a drive to the basket and it did look like his ankles were about to explode with every step. Looks like his ankles/feet can barely support his mass.

I do not believe he will take another 1 year contract though. Rudy has shown his dedication to the team and he isn't getting any younger, Spurs will reward him with a good contract of at least 2 years this off season.

[BackHome]

Agreed on all points.

I do think SA will have to trade a guard though.

I think Bellini (& Metu if needed) to Philly for Simmons & one of their 2nds makes a great deal of sense around the draft.. Especially with this FA class being relatively weak, and how Sixers can go over cap on their own FAs. SA can immediately waive Simmons a few days later ( July 1st is the date his contract is guaranteed for the 19/20 season).

Spurs could use the pick for a draft and stash such as Samanic, or Sirvydis....or pick Jontay Porter/Brazdeikis and put him on a Blossomgame path initially for the first year).

I like that move I really think Samanic is going to be a stud hope we can do this.

[cool cat]

I don't love the idea but should we resign Danny Green???

[Strategic]

Seems that Pop’s history has mostly been seeing his young players play out their first contract before deciding whether to let them walk, especially if they’ve earned enough trust for him to give them some PT. Just don’t remember him cutting many of them loose, unless they asked to be traded. While I laughed recently when a few here voted White as potentially having a multi year all star career, I would hate to see him go. I think that he, plus a draft pick would only net a player that’s 2 more years til we know if they fit. I like White’s BBIQ and think that he can be an adequate wing contributor when pressed into the roll. Maybe a George Hill that can shoot.

[JeffDuncan]

May be wishful thinking, but I don't think Mills has any guaranteed minutes next season. His playing time through this last year traces back to the plague of injuries at the start.

White, Murray, Forbes, Walker. Mix and match, for the guard rotation. Mills standing by.

My notion is that minutes assigned to Mills should have an asterisk, *if necessary.

There's another interpretation of what Pop has said about Mills. "Leader," "culture," and all that. It can be heard as consolation for a veteran who will normally be on the deep bench.

But what do I know.

Bertans is tradeable. A player with his 3pt ability is bound to be attractive to somebody. The Bulls?? Well, there are several teams. Pop's distrust of 3pt shooting won't change, and Bertans vanished in the playoffs.

[TDomination]

I don't love the idea but should we resign Danny Green???
If he wanted to come back, heck yeah i'd take him back.
But i'm sure Toronto will offer him a good deal.

[John B]

Thanks Timvp. All said, I want either one of Mills or Beli gone however, to bring in an athletic 3 and D SF who’s ready to play. Otherwise both Murray and Demar better be hitting those 3’s 1000 a day. Next is a “Bayne” big body center who can bang and insurance for Poeltl. Poeltl needs to beefup 25 lbs of solid muscle.

[KobesAchilles]

So could the Spurs spin off one of the young guys as a sweetener in a trade? Already said that Brynn looks off limits, and Pop's comments say that Walker is too. LW is a big question mark because of the injury and lack of exposure. That leaves White - and the way Pop effectively benched him in the playoffs sort of makes him look possible. I'd hate to lose him, but maybe if it netted one of the pieces the team really needs? White and Murray minutes look to be a logjam, in light of the carve-out minutes for Mills and Forbes. Moving one of them for a piece that fits elsewhere has to be a consideration for PATFO, even though they like both players.


I don’t think it would be humanly possible for me to become more angry with a person than I would be with Pop if he traded White to make room for Wombat’s minutes. I would be that one crazy guy holding a “fire Poop” sign outside the ATnT center :lol

[Strategic]

Bertans is tradeable. A player with his 3pt ability is bound to be attractive to somebody. The Bulls?? Well, there are several teams. Pop's distrust of 3pt shooting won't change, and Bertans vanished in the playoffs.

Even though Bertans’ shooting helped the team some during the regular season, I agree he’s expendable. His playoff showing sucked. Maybe the Nuggets athleticism was a bad match. Who knows? If Pop would move from Mills and Belli then ok, keep Davis. Don’t see that happening.

[mo7888]

If he wanted to come back, heck yeah i'd take him back.
But i'm sure Toronto will offer him a good deal.

I think Toronto only offers him if they can keep Kawhi.

[Chomag]

In sorry but yes getting Murray back would increase the Spurs Talent level up by far overall but I just don't see that talent level of Murray , DDR, and White meshing together all that well in actual game time situations. Maybe somehow Pop and co, can find a way to make it all work, but everything points to the opposite.

[Dverde]

Great breakdown. Would Gasol signing with another team next year free up more cash? It was my belief that the Spurs would only have to pay the amount not covered in a new deal.

[DPG21920]

timvp - I appreciate the write up. My biggest question is, even with agreeing patience being the best option, is why do you trade your best asset (Kawhi) for DeRozan if you aren’t willing to figuratively go for it?

Are you saying they were but maybe after seeing it actually happen they reversed course and are just minimizing the damage?

Because either way, it’s odd to make a trade for DeRozan and not go for it as hard as possible. If it’s the latter and they decided after seeing it that it’s no longer worth it to go for it, then shouldn’t moving DeRozan be top of the list?

They made the playoffs without DeRozan and Kawhi and now have White/Lonnie/Poeltl to add to that team plus 2 firsts. If you made a trade for DeRozan you should be going for it.

If that’s not possible and you are ok with win-building (be a playoff team while developing youth) then you can do that without DeRozan and likely get assets for him (trade to a team like CHA for a first).

Seems wild to me to trade for DeRozan with no real plan; seem wilder to me to see what you have and then not pick a direction.

Trading DeRozan can get you assets and keep you where you are in the West if you really think you can’t be a contender with him. I’m just challenging the mindset.

I think with a real impact player (cap space free agent or trade) plus Lonnie Murray White Poeltl SA can make noise. Especially if GS loses KD

[JeffDuncan]

timvp - I appreciate the write up. My biggest question is, even with agreeing patience being the best option, is why do you trade your best asset (Kawhi) for DeRozan if you aren’t willing to figuratively go for it?



What the Spurs wanted from the trade was the closest thing they could get to guaranteed scoring. And in fact, with DDR they got it. 21.2 points per game this year. Also, DDR got 6 rebounds/game and 6 assists.

Statistically, the Spurs did well on the trade. They moneyballed it, so to speak, and filled out the stat sheet. Unfortunately, stats are never the whole story.

[slick'81]

timvp (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=8) - I appreciate the write up. My biggest question is, even with agreeing patience being the best option, is why do you trade your best asset (Kawhi) for DeRozan if you aren’t willing to figuratively go for it?

Are you saying they were but maybe after seeing it actually happen they reversed course and are just minimizing the damage?

Because either way, it’s odd to make a trade for DeRozan and not go for it as hard as possible. If it’s the latter and they decided after seeing it that it’s no longer worth it to go for it, then shouldn’t moving DeRozan be top of the list?

They made the playoffs without DeRozan and Kawhi and now have White/Lonnie/Poeltl to add to that team plus 2 firsts. If you made a trade for DeRozan you should be going for it.

If that’s not possible and you are ok with win-building (be a playoff team while developing youth) then you can do that without DeRozan and likely get assets for him (trade to a team like CHA for a first).

Seems wild to me to trade for DeRozan with no real plan; seem wilder to me to see what you have and then not pick a direction.

Trading DeRozan can get you assets and keep you where you are in the West if you really think you can’t be a contender with him. I’m just challenging the mindset.

I think with a real impact player (cap space free agent or trade) plus Lonnie Murray White Poeltl SA can make noise. Especially if GS loses KD






Dont think the spurs have any plans to trade demar but id love the spurs to find a Way to move up in the draft

[monty4329]

The main issue is that we have too many average playersM most of them though are the only ones who shoot 3s. Beli, Forbes, Bertans, Mills. All of them in theory should go via trades either direct of as a filler in a three teams deal. Ideally, have the four of them go for two experienced shooter wings (we have enough youth).

All that is feasible cap- and contractwise. Problem is finding the right trades, for whom? None of the usual suspects are reliable volume shooters.

Considering the projected starting fives cannot make a three to save their life, we are stuck in keeping two of Forbes, Beli, Bertans. Mills is untradeable unless packaged with picks and in exchange for a bad contract (ryan anderson, even whiteside tha Miami needs to dump).

We desperately need volume shooters that can actually play, especially a wing starter.

[rjv]

Marcus Morris, Aminu, Ariza, Wes Matthews, Rodney Hood.. one of them being best case scenario or somebody else??

i like this list. morris would be a nice fit as would matthews. one thing that i didn't see addressed in the OP's post though was addressing the shooting. i think our ideal MLE usage would be on a wing defender with three-point range.

[DPG21920]

What the Spurs wanted from the trade was the closest thing they could get to guaranteed scoring. And in fact, with DDR they got it. 21.2 points per game this year. Also, DDR got 6 rebounds/game and 6 assists.

Statistically, the Spurs did well on the trade. They moneyballed it, so to speak, and filled out the stat sheet. Unfortunately, stats are never the whole story.

I get that; but I dont think the Spurs just wanted scoring. They wanted a player that could help them win now. If that is the case, you don’t trade your best player for someone to help you win now without out making other moves to actually help said move succeed.

[rjv]

I'm not going to say I know what goes on in Pop's head, but dude thought Murray/DeRozan/Gay/Aldridge/Gasol was going to work. Just because he wants something doesn't mean it's going to end up working out.


i don't know that pop actually ever stated this; what i recall him saying is that the team was going to run a lot more (with murray at the point) and that whoever could keep up would be in the rotation. i have no idea of whether or not he had bodies in mind when he said this or if he was being cryptic but when i heard this, the first person i thought of that would not be able to keep up was gasol.

[DPG21920]

Dont think the spurs have any plans to trade demar but id love the spurs to find a Way to move up in the draft


I am already on record saying that I think LMA/DeRozan along with everyone SA is getting back (Murray/Lonnie/2 1sts/MLE) is going to be a good team. Not perfect, but in the mix.

But the logic of it all seems off to me. I would love SA to move up in the draft if it means getting a player that can not only play SF/PF now, but grow with Lonnie/White/Murray core. That SF/PF (Rudy Gay replacement) is exactly what would pair with with the young core.

However, if you believe you are just stuck with not being able to take a leap with the DDR/LMA core you have to at least consider moving DeRozan IMO.

I get not wanting to trade White/Lonnie/Murray/Poeltl or give up picks to dump Mills/Beli/Bertans for cap space in the situation. I dont get not being willing to trade DeRozan where you would be getting assets back while quite possibly not taking yourself out of the playoffs at the same time.

If you aren’t willing to go for it and give up assets to try and improve, then I think trading DeRozan should be on the table if it nets you assets.

[rjv]

also, based on what i got from pop's exit interview with the press is that murray and white will start, or at least share the same backcourt. he specifically referenced white possibly being at the 2 spot. my inference would be what pop is imagining from a three point standpoint. his system is not going to be similar to the current NBA model in that he is going to give the go-ahead on a sudden shift to high volume three-point shooting. pop prefers to make the other teams have to decrease their three point attempts and turn the game into as much of a mid-range contest as possible.

[Brazil]

very nice outlook.. just missing Spurs signing Tony for a vet deal tbh

[timvp]

I don't agree with this. Murray played 27 mpg in starts because there was no viable alternative. Same with White. I don't mean to imply that the minutes weren't deserved, but there's little doubt in my mind that if they're both healthy and ready to go, they'll take minutes from each other rather than increase their minutes. I certainly don't project Murray as getting 30ish mpg just 'cause.So you think White will play fewer minutes next season? I'd be honestly interested in how many minutes you think White and Murray will average. Numbers, please.


That's why I specifically countered the "Manu couldn't play more" rebuttal. It's not that Pop held Manu back, so he can hold anyone back. It's that a featured 22mpg role can feel as impactful as a 30mpg role. The idea that one of those guys playing a focused bench role as a bad thing is wrong-headed. Honestly, I think it's the best use of Murray's skill-set to play with a Mills/Beli or Bertans/Gay/Poeltl second unit. They need his energy and and defense in a way that the starting unit (with a defensive forward playing PF) probably doesn't. I don't expect DJM to like it, but it's a great way to make sure that one of the team's best PGs is on the court at all times, and it maximizes the time Murray isn't on the court with DeRozan.Admittedly, Murray is the biggest question mark heading into next season. So much of how the season will unfold will rest upon Murray's jumper. If it's improved, that changes a lot. If it's really improved, that changes even more.

Then again, even if Murray's jumper isn't improved, Pop will try to implement the faster paced offense he talked about prior to Murray's injury. And the improvement of White's jumper will be a factor. Oh, plus DeRozan will supposedly be asked to shoot more, too. Lots of moving parts so I wouldn't bury the Murray, White, DeRozan trio just yet.

It's early to be assuming much about next season but just based off of Pop's continued praise for Murray and how he has continually stressed how big a part of the team he was projected to be, I'd be really surprised if he averaged ~22 minutes per game next season.


I think there's a legit chance that Gay walks. He's already shown that he's not going to just take the highest offer by opting out in Sacramento despite being injured. The Warriors may end up losing one of their core "middle position" players this off-season. Do you think that if, say, Durant walks that GS will just roll over and die? Nope. They'll be trying to woo the best free-agent forward to replace him. Same is probably true if they trade away Draymond. For a guy who gave up money to try to contend, do you think that can't persuade him? If you do, I disagree. I think Gay will have his share of suitors this summer, and unless he now has different values, I think there's a good chance he moves on.You speak of two offseasons ago but just look at last summer. Gay played well his first year in SA, showed athleticism after the achilles tear and still only got a one-year, $10 million contract from the Spurs. What changed that a year older version of Gay is going to suddenly command four times that amount?

And contending-wise, the Spurs appear to be in a better spot right now compared to the housefire that was raging last summer. If Gay was going to pull a David West, it would have been last offseason.


Do I think a legit top-level free agent could push the Spurs over the top, even minus Gay, Beli, Bertans and Mills? Yes.Who do you consider a top-level free agent? Durant? Who else?

[SpursRussia]

Maybe Spurs can package their fringe expiring players for some kind of a bad 2-year contract and an asset, pick or young player, to facilitate rebuild after LMA and DDR. Something like a trade of Belli and Bertans for James Johnson or Dion Waiters with MIA or Cody Zeller with CHA, if they want to clear their payroll for 2021. We can also get Minny out of Dieng contract and give them cap space for 3rd star, assuming they get out of RoCo contract later, which looks pretty easy.

Anyway, this type of move doesn't affect the Spurs next year, as Belli and Davis are easily replaceable, but may help tremendously come rebuild time.

[DPG21920]

You speak of two offseasons ago but just look at last summer. Gay played well his first year in SA, showed athleticism after the achilles tear and still only got a one-year, $10 million contract from the Spurs. What changed that a year older version of Gay is going to suddenly command four times that amount?

I think he’s saying GS looms large. If KD goes (at a minimum, not including Klay too which is possible) that is what changed from last year. A real need for GS to play a role on a team with possibly Curry/Klay/Draymond and win a title. I think Gay loves sa and personally (not verified) think he turned down money to stay one more year because he thought DeRozan (his buddy) was going to make a difference (how much he knew about the possibility of that trade is unknown, but he at least had to know SA was going to get something for Kawhi which means a good chance to go past the first round - and he was was right as SA very well could have gone to the 2nd round).



Who do you consider a top-level free agent? Durant? Who else?

Kemba. Middleton. Kyrie. Possibly Julius Randle. Al Horford possibly.

I know signing or trading for a PG seems nuts, but if you can swap DeRozan for a better guard that can shoot 3s maybe sliding Murray/Lonnie/White to the 2/3 then opening up minutes for the 2/3 via the draft is a possibility.

But as unlikely as it is, I have no doubt that if SA got Middleton they would be contenders in the West if KD leave GS. Not favorites. But right in the jumbled up mess.

Is it worth giving up White/Murray/Lonnie? Probably not. But then again, why get a win-now player if you would just be gun shy about winning now and what that takes?

[RC_Drunkford]

Spurs ain't gon do shit. Let's hope they draft 2 good wings and sign a 3-and-D SF with the MLE and extend Gay on a reasonable deal

[r0drig0lac]

Spurs ain't gon do shit. Let's hope they draft 2 good wings and sign a 3-and-D SF with the MLE and extend Gay on a reasonable deal

this would be the ideal scenario

[TD 21]

The Warriors definitely loom as a threat for Gay. He's effectively a homeless man's Durant and they supposedly had previous interest as an Iguodala fallback 2 off seasons ago.

It's easy to see how he could be seduced too: The lure of championship contention (though their days of actually winning it will likely be over), starting and playing his preferred SF (though he'd still eat a lot of backup PF minutes) and being in the spotlight.

I could easily see the Spurs having to overpay or at least pay more than they prefer in an attempt to fend them off.

If they lose him, they might as well trade DeRozan (I'd do that anyway, but I digress) and at the very least have a discussion with Aldridge. There's no realistic means with which to replace him and he fills such a vital role that their dreams of being "competitive" (aka a treadmill team) would be dashed.

If he's re-signed, then yeah, it's straightforward. As I've said ad nauseam, unless whoever they'd covet unexpectedly falls to 19, I could see them aggressively trying to move up in the draft by combining the 1sts + possibly Forbes.

Short of that, I'd expect 19 to be some sort of big wing/PF. If it's a more readymade type, they'll fill the Cunningham role immediately. If it's a project, they'll be scouring the bargain bin (I could see Deng; Johnson will probably want a situation with a more clear path to minutes) again.

If it's draft and/or bargain bin to shore up deep bench on the wings, then Milutinov for a portion of the MLE would make sense to complete the off season.

[Russ]

But then again, why get a win-now player if you would just be gun shy about winning now and what that takes?

One thing to remember is that the Spurs want (need) to win a certain amount even if they're actually rebuilding. It's the "small but spoiled" market phenomenon.

In that case, you need win now players to get you through rebuilding even if the realistic goal is not a championship.

A lot of us think it's a binary choice -- either win it all now or tank/rebuild with no vets and only youngsters.

The people who have to run this as a money-making business may see it differently.

[DAF86]

-Re-sign Rudy to a 1 or 2 years deal.
-Sign a veteran 3 and D 6'8", or higher, guy with the MLE.
-Draft the players with the most upside regardless of position.

That's it.

[DAF86]

The Warriors definitely loom as a threat for Gay. He's effectively a homeless man's Durant and they supposedly had previous interest as an Iguodala fallback 2 off seasons ago.

It's easy to see how he could be seduced too: The lure of championship contention (though their days of actually winning it will likely be over), starting and playing his preferred SF (though he'd still eat a lot of backup PF minutes) and being in the spotlight.

I could easily see the Spurs having to overpay or at least pay more than they prefer in an attempt to fend them off.

If they lose him, they might as well trade DeRozan (I'd do that anyway, but I digress) and at the very least have a discussion with Aldridge. There's no realistic means with which to replace him and he fills such a vital role that their dreams of being "competitive" (aka a treadmill team) would be dashed.

If he's re-signed, then yeah, it's straightforward. As I've said ad nauseam, unless whoever they'd covet unexpectedly falls to 19, I could see them aggressively trying to move up in the draft by combining the 1sts + possibly Forbes.

Short of that, I'd expect 19 to be some sort of big wing/PF. If it's a more readymade type, they'll fill the Cunningham role immediately. If it's a project, they'll be scouring the bargain bin (I could see Deng; Johnson will probably want a situation with a more clear path to minutes) again.

If it's draft and/or bargain bin to shore up deep bench on the wings, then Milutinov for a portion of the MLE would make sense to complete the off season.

As long as the contract doesn't go over 2 years, overpaying for Gay shouldn't be seen as an issue.

[Mugen]

Spurs ain't gon do shit. Let's hope they draft 2 good wings and sign a 3-and-D SF with the MLE and extend Gay on a reasonable deal

:lol Pretty much, honestly I'd be surprise if they even did one of the above correctly.

[DAF86]

-Re-sign Rudy to a 1 or 2 years deal.
-Sign a veteran 3 and D 6'8", or higher, guy with the MLE.
-Draft the players with the most upside regardless of position.

That's it.

Those 3 and D guys could be either Thabo Sefolosha or Trevor Ariza.

Murray
White
DeRozan
Sefolosha
Aldridge

Forbes
Walker
Bertans
Gay
Poeltl

Mills
Belinelli
19
29
Metu

[TD 21]

Forgot to mention, for the umpteenth time, :lol at anyone who thinks the Spurs would sign a Morris or that a Morris would want to sign with the Spurs.


As long as the contract doesn't go over 2 years, overplaying for Gay shouldn't be seen as an issue.

True. But the point I'm trying to make is, those who think this is going to be a quick and painless similar money or slight raise type contract should be prepared to see a relatively astronomical number.

Even if Gay isn't seduced by the Warriors, I'd be shocked if they don't express interest and his agent wouldn't be doing his job to not scare the Spurs into giving him significantly more money that they probably otherwise would have to.

[JeffDuncan]

I get that; but I dont think the Spurs just wanted scoring. They wanted a player that could help them win now. If that is the case, you don’t trade your best player for someone to help you win now without out making other moves to actually help said move succeed.

I don't think the Spurs do "win now" any more than they do "tank," under Pop. Too extreme. He likes better odds.

About other moves, I agree in a way. The first move after the Leonard trade was the signing of Belinelli two days later, which struck me as odd, and it still seems odd. More punch from 3pt range, obviously, but Pop doesn't favor the 3, and Beli was never known for defense.

Gay was signed a week before the Leonard trade. Maybe with Gay plus DDR plus Beli the idea was to fully compensate for the loss of Leonard's scoring. As far as just that much goes, it worked, during the regular season. The playoffs, meh. And the defense crumbled some.

But what the Spurs need now.....

The guards look ok. White, Forbes, Walker, Murray. All four young, talented (in one way or another,) and cheap. Can't beat them for the price. Mills is available as overpriced insurance. Should events turn brutal again, DDR can play either guard position. I don't see the guard positions as an area where the Spurs should spend more money this summer.

Beli is redundant as a guard, and he isn't much of an SF. He should be thanked and traded to a team looking for 3pt help, if at all possible.

Small forwards, we need at least one. Same old song.

[MaNu4Tres]

Forgot to mention, for the umpteenth time, :lol at anyone who thinks the Spurs would sign a Morris or that a Morris would want to sign with the Spurs.



True. But the point I'm trying to make is, those who think this is going to be a quick and painless similar money or slight raise type contract should be prepared to see a relatively astronomical number.

Even if Gay isn't seduced by the Warriors, I'd be shocked if they don't express interest and his agent wouldn't be doing his job to not scare the Spurs into giving him significantly more money that they probably otherwise would have to.

Spurs can pay Gay up to 17.5 mil per.

I hope its a 1+1 deal at worst.

2 years guaranteed would be eeeeh.

3 years guaranteed would be a gross.

I can definitely see Warriors, Rockets, Thunder all offering the MLE.

[DPG21920]

One thing to remember is that the Spurs want (need) to win a certain amount even if they're actually rebuilding. It's the "small but spoiled" market phenomenon.

In that case, you need win now players to get you through rebuilding even if the realistic goal is not a championship.

A lot of us think it's a binary choice -- either win it all now or tank/rebuild with no vets and only youngsters.

The people who have to run this as a money-making business may see it differently.

I get that, but counterpoint; sa without Derozan or Kawhi made the playoffs. Getting a player like DeRozan is not something you do with the expectation of just holding onto the 7th/8th.

Adding some younger talent/picks type package theoretically has sa still a playoff team.

[DPG21920]

But again, I’m not saying just do something to do something. Just challenging the mindset.

I think with DeRozan/LMA this team could jump high if Murray is healthy and improved. That is so big. If he’s real, like White, then SA is going to be damn good as is. Which means they dont have to take any risks while buying more time to see whats up.

With Murray this year, SA likely is at least a 2nd round team. Would everything be viewed differently if that was the case?

[RC_Drunkford]

But again, I’m not saying just do something to do something. Just challenging the mindset.

I think with DeRozan/LMA this team could jump high if Murray is healthy and improved. That is so big. If he’s real, like White, then SA is going to be damn good as is. Which means they dont have to take any risks while buying more time to see whats up.

With Murray this year, SA likely is at least a 2nd round team. Would everything be viewed differently if that was the case?

If they add a legit 3-and-D SF with the MLE (and there are plenty of good ones on the market this offseason) and strike gold in the draft it would further increase their chances. With a trade at the deadline for a 3-and-D SF they could've made the WCF this year

[spurs10]

Murray going down was a big loss. We were fortunate that White was ready to play and next season let's hope we have both. I'm hoping, and thinking it's probable, Gay returns. We have 19 and 29 and hopefully we are able to get a 3 and D player as well. When does the season start!

Meanwhile, Go San Antonio Bucks!!

[look_at_g_shred]

Perhaps our biggest addition this summer will be DDR’s 3 point shot?

[Russ]

Perhaps our biggest addition this summer will be DDR’s 3 point shot?

Or Godot.

[sasaint]

Perhaps our biggest addition this summer will be DDR’s 3 point shot?

Better still... Murray's 3-point shot.

[slick'81]

Perhaps our biggest addition this summer will be DDR’s 3 point shot?

He hit 89 the year before in tor

[Roscoe P. Coltrane]

I like Davis but 7 mill is kinda pricy for a guy who got benched in the playoffs too lol He's'll be dealt in the off season.

[tholdren]

Good writeup. Gay is terribly stupid and had the spurs benched him, they would have won the series. If you want to use dumb ass stats to prove how good gay was during the playoffs just look at his -29. ... second worst on team in front of derozan. Gay is worthless on d. Hes a terrible rebounder and play maker. Sign him trade him. Empty stat padder

[Ed Helicopter Jones]

I’d love to see the Spurs mix it up a bit, but realistically I expect to see the Spurs’ offseason go exactly as Timvp predicts. Thanks for the awesome article! :tu

[Chinook]

So you think White will play fewer minutes next season? I'd be honestly interested in how many minutes you think White and Murray will average. Numbers, please.

Feel like that's a goalpost move, because we had been talking "low-ball scenarios", not predictions on what they will average. I think they'll combine in the low 50s with the low end being around 46 and the high end being 60. Simply put, Pop isn't going to stop playing Forbes and Mills decent minutes, and I don't see either DJM or White playing SF as a viable option. I may happen sometimes like how DMDR played the four for some minutes against OKC and LAL. But that's not going to be a real part of the rotation.


Admittedly, Murray is the biggest question mark heading into next season. So much of how the season will unfold will rest upon Murray's jumper. If it's improved, that changes a lot. If it's really improved, that changes even more.

Then again, even if Murray's jumper isn't improved, Pop will try to implement the faster paced offense he talked about prior to Murray's injury. And the improvement of White's jumper will be a factor. Oh, plus DeRozan will supposedly be asked to shoot more, too. Lots of moving parts so I wouldn't bury the Murray, White, DeRozan trio just yet.

It's early to be assuming much about next season but just based off of Pop's continued praise for Murray and how he has continually stressed how big a part of the team he was projected to be, I'd be really surprised if he averaged ~22 minutes per game next season.

This goes back to my comment about the initial SL last year. Pop may want Murray and White to start and get abnormally large amounts of playing time. But he's actually a really practical coach, and he'll reorder his rotation if things aren't working. I think we can all agree that that Murray/DMDR/Gay perimeter wasn't going to work, no matter how much praise anyone was getting. Murray/DeRozan/Poeltl along with two guys who prefer to get twos to three is so much less viable than that, that it's not funny. I'm sure Pop will try to increase the tempo to get DeJounte easy points, but it's not something they're going to do every time up the court. Murray isn't a very good scorer, so him going up against the D by himself time and time again isn't a recipe for success. It's also not very viable to have him do that with two bigs on the court, because it'll tire them out to keep running up and down the floor.


Who do you consider a top-level free agent? Durant? Who else?

Durant is worth any price, especially with DeRozan and Aldrdige still on the team. Even that next level of wings like Klay and Middleton are worth a lot if the team can hold onto someone like Bertans or find a way to bring in a mid-level player to compliment them. I really like how Rudy has turned his career around over the last few years, but there are viable options in terms of scoring combo-forwards who can be had cheaply. For all we know, the Spurs may be able to draft one at 19.

Yes, if Murray and White become breakout shooters, they open up way more possibilities. That's why there's a "high-ball" estimate to go with the low-ball. It's not that I don't believe they could have fixed this spacing problem. It's that I won't believe they have until I see it. Until then, they're pretty much fighting over the same niche and not threatening Mills, Forbes or even Beli for minutes.


You speak of two offseasons ago but just look at last summer. Gay played well his first year in SA, showed athleticism after the achilles tear and still only got a one-year, $10 million contract from the Spurs. What changed that a year older version of Gay is going to suddenly command four times that amount?

And contending-wise, the Spurs appear to be in a better spot right now compared to the housefire that was raging last summer. If Gay was going to pull a David West, it would have been last offseason.

I don't have a perfect memory, but I don't recall Gay ending the year very well at all last season. I certainly don't think he'd made the real "Iggy pivot" by last summer. This year, he's actually healthy, and he showed off his new role-player mentality way more than he did in 2017-2018 when he was essentially the Kawhi (mostly unsuccessful) substitute rather than the bench scorer he is today. He may well have gotten interest last summer that he turned down, but I doubt it was nearly as big as he's going to get. He's a year older, but he's way closer to a winning player than he's been for like a decade. I definitely think at least one team with a better chance at a title than SA will offer him a deal.

[ZeusWillJudge]

I don’t think it would be humanly possible for me to become more angry with a person than I would be with Pop if he traded White to make room for Wombat’s minutes. I would be that one crazy guy holding a “fire Poop” sign outside the ATnT center :lol


I didn't say that the would do it. But if they do make a trade, that's probably where it goes. You've got to offer something of value, and Pop traded George Hill even though he liked him.

I wouldn't be happy about it either - unless it wound up as good as the Hill for Kawhi trade.

[Seventyniner]

If he's re-signed, then yeah, it's straightforward. As I've said ad nauseam, unless whoever they'd covet unexpectedly falls to 19, I could see them aggressively trying to move up in the draft by combining the 1sts + possibly Forbes.

Just to add, if the Spurs don't end up moving up it doesn't mean they didn't try. It could be that they just couldn't talk a team in the right spot into a deal, but it could also be that they guy they really want ends up falling to 19, kind of like with Walker. Didn't PATFO supposedly try aggressively to trade up for Walker, only to see him fall to 18 anyway? Or am I remembering something wrong?

[TheCerebral1]

#1: Getting rid of Derozan. #2: repeat #1.

[JeffDuncan]

#1: Getting rid of Derozan. #2: repeat #1.

The main obstacle to that is in the arithmetic. DDR scored 21.2 points per game this season. And 6 rebounds and 6 assists. Who can we get, to replace him, who will give us those points? And rebounds & assists. Such players are rare.

As a comparison, Klay Thompson averaged 21.5 ppg, with fewer rebounds (3.8) and assists (2.4).

Stats are not everything, but they are something and they can't be totally ignored. To move DDR out, we'd have to at least be very confident of getting 20 ppg in return, somehow. A player who can score 20 ppg is a top-30 scorer, rare and expensive.

[JeffDuncan]

Oops, duplicate.

[R. DeMurre]

The main obstacle to that is in the arithmetic. DDR scored 21.2 points per game this season. And 6 rebounds and 6 assists. Who can we get, to replace him, who will give us those points? And rebounds & assists. Such players are rare.

As a comparison, Klay Thompson averaged 21.5 ppg, with fewer rebounds (3.8) and assists (2.4).

Stats are not everything, but they are something and they can't be totally ignored. To move DDR out, we'd have to at least be very confident of getting 20 ppg in return, somehow. A player who can score 20 ppg is a top-30 scorer, rare and expensive.


The floor opens up without DeRozan, giving everybody better looks. I don't think you need to replace DeRozan with a 20 ppg guy. A 12-15 ppg guy who plays D and shoots threes would make it much more difficult to double team Aldridge, and give White, Murray, Walker, Gay, etc., more space in the paint. So 9 more points total from the top 7 players combined plus 12 from his replacement = 21.
And if Klay replaced DeRozan, the Spurs would be drastically better... those assist & rebound numbers wouldn't mean anything.

[Philthemage]

The floor opens up without DeRozan, giving everybody better looks. I don't think you need to replace DeRozan with a 20 ppg guy. A 12-15 ppg guy who plays D and shoots threes would make it much more difficult to double team Aldridge, and give White, Murray, Walker, Gay, etc., more space in the paint. So 9 more points total from the top 7 players combined plus 12 from his replacement = 21.
And if Klay replaced DeRozan, the Spurs would be drastically better... those assist & rebound numbers wouldn't mean anything.

You need a guy who is a natural scorer to create and take shots. Yeah DeRozan sucks in the playoffs and can be inefficient at times, but he is that guy. Without him, we will be struggling even more on offense with everyone deferring to one another. Its not good defense that's an issue.

Our offense had stalled repeatedly throughout the course of the year when nobody wants to be the man to create. If we are replacing DeRozan, it's got to be another wing who can create for himself, and Klay isn't that guy.

[Seventyniner]

I know this thread isn't about trades, but since it hasn't come out yet I'll ask here. Belinelli, and perhaps to a lesser extent Bertans (depending on if the Spurs use the MLE on a forward), seem to be expendable and are on medium-scale expiring contracts. Has anyone tried to construct a list of players to target in a trade, whose salaries expire in 2021 when Aldridge and DeRozan will be expiring? That seems like the most plausible path to "contention" in the near future, while leaving flexibility for a rebuild in 2021.

[Realdeal1]

I know it wouldnt happen but signing Tobias Harris or Brooke Lopez would be great! Pipe dream I know

[Truth4sale$]

I would love to see the Spurs trade with the Phoenix, they have an abundance of small forwards with TJWarren, ,Kelly Oubre,(Resteicted) Josh Jackson, Mikal Bridges, and Troy Daniels.
Spurs don't have much to offer but Suns need veterans, and PG and Power forward. Best offer would be Davis Bertans and Patty Mills.

[cd021]

Spurs can pay Gay up to 17.5 mil per.

I hope its a 1+1 deal at worst.

2 years guaranteed would be eeeeh.

3 years guaranteed would be a gross.

I can definitely see Warriors, Rockets, Thunder all offering the MLE.

All three teams should would only have the tax payer MLE of around $5.5 million. That's not a lot. Spurs can easily double that on a one year deal.

[cd021]

Perhaps our biggest addition this summer will be DDR’s 3 point shot?
Highly doubt it. Don't buy DeRozan becoming an even decent shooter from 3 next season. He may take more but he'll likely be a below average shooter and either stop taking him like he did this season.

Aldridge needs to take more corner 3's and above the break 3's, he is more likely to hit that at an efficient clip but at a low volume. A healthy Murray in addition to an improved White is probably the biggest additions tbh Spurs may be able to be a top half defense as opposed to a bottom 3rd defense. That alone is probably worth five wins.

[TimDunkem]

DD devloping his 3? :lol Hell...We've been waiting for LMA to develop a three point shot for 3 years now, and that hasn't happened. Keep dreaming, people.

[kobyz]

http://www.espn.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=y2qf5klg
Add 3 first round picks, do it Mitch!!!

[offset formation]

Crater face said bringing Gay back is the team's first priority.

Expect another off season of the same. 30 year Olds seeking one last pay check here in San Antonio and PATFO willingly handing them out.

Can you read, you oozing pus-filled shitgibbon?

If PATFO doesnt resign him, it severely limits our options by way of this years draft picks AND the MLE and BAE.

It is a must, not to mention that Rudy actually had the best efficiency numbers of his career. He was a positive player.

[offset formation]

I would love to see the Spurs trade with the Phoenix, they have an abundance of small forwards with TJWarren, ,Kelly Oubre,(Resteicted) Josh Jackson, Mikal Bridges, and Troy Daniels.
Spurs don't have much to offer but Suns need veterans, and PG and Power forward. Best offer would be Davis Bertans and Patty Mills.

Wouldn't be surprised to see Bertans moved at all of all the players on the team given he was in Pop's doghouse pretty much the entirety of the Denver series. I mean he didn't even play at all almost the entire series, so it clearly wasn't a matchup thing where he couldn't be used against some lineups. He was just plain exiled to the bench.

[TD 21]

Spurs can pay Gay up to 17.5 mil per.

I hope its a 1+1 deal at worst.

2 years guaranteed would be eeeeh.

3 years guaranteed would be a gross.

I can definitely see Warriors, Rockets, Thunder all offering the MLE.

I'd be shocked if it's not 2 guaranteed years. He just effectively came off multiple one year deals (the p/o was basically insurance in case he suffered another significant injury). I'd imagine he'll prioritize a semblance of security. Two plus a partial guarantee is probably the max.

I haven't looked into it, but if cd021 is right about those 3 teams only having the taxpayer MLE, then that should clinch his re-signing.

[BackHome]

Wouldn't be surprised to see Bertans moved at all of all the players on the team given he was in Pop's doghouse pretty much the entirety of the Denver series. I mean he didn't even play at all almost the entire series, so it clearly wasn't a matchup thing where he couldn't be used against some lineups. He was just plain exiled to the bench.

Yeah I do not think Pop ever figured out to use him properly if I was Bertans agent I would be asking nicely to be traded. I think he could be a good player if put on right team where he will have more freedom and not so short of leash - Pop.

[cd021]

I'd be shocked if it's not 2 guaranteed years. He just effectively came off multiple one year deals (the p/o was basically insurance in case he suffered another significant injury). I'd imagine he'll prioritize a semblance of security. Two plus a partial guarantee is probably the max.

I haven't looked into it, but if cd021 is right about those 3 teams only having the taxpayer MLE, then that should clinch his re-signing.


Houston has 7 players making a combined $122 million. The Salary cap is about $108 million and the luxury tax should be about $130 million. With Roster charges they'll be around $127 million they won't be able to use the full MLE.

OKC has about $145 million committed to 10 players :lol :wow

Golden State will have $120 million committed to 7 players If KD leaves, Klay qualifies for an super max and they cut Livingston. $128 million if they keep Livingston and $166 million if KD re-signs. This does not include Cousins.

All three won't have the full MLE, in fact, only Houston may end up using the tax payer MLE given how big Golden State's and OKCs payroll will/could be.

[TDMVPDPOY]

Houston has 7 players making a combined $122 million. The Salary cap is about $108 million and the luxury tax should be about $130 million. With Roster charges they'll be around $127 million they won't be able to use the full MLE.

OKC has about $145 million committed to 10 players :lol :wow

Golden State will have $120 million committed to 7 players If KD leaves, Klay qualifies for an super max and they cut Livingston. $128 million if they keep Livingston and $166 million if KD re-signs. This does not include Cousins.

All three won't have the full MLE, in fact, only Houston may end up using the tax payer MLE given how big Golden State's and OKCs payroll will/could be.

DK is rubbing his hands at that penalty tax revenue sharing scheme for staying below the cap.... seriously if ur team aint contending shit, why are you overspending? shouldnt u operate under the cap and just sit and collect that penalty tax

[dabom6]

On the surface, the San Antonio Spurs appear to be a team in the midst of a chaotic transition period less than a year after their franchise player abruptly demanded a trade. But digging deeper, it becomes clear that the franchise is destined for a remarkably unremarkable offseason. Wholesale changes are unlikely to be made until next summer, at the earliest.

While it's true that the coaching staff would undoubtedly prefer to bring back a mostly intact roster in order to foster the much-ballyhooed corporate knowledge that was lost in last offseason's upheaval, the leading reason why this summer promises to be a quiet one can be found in the dollars and cents.

The Spurs will be busy in the 2019 NBA Draft, with two first round picks (picks 19 and 29) and a second rounder (49th overall), but free agency could very well be limited to one significant addition. In fact, with how the salaries add up, San Antonio is actually incentivized to keep the team together.

https://i.imgur.com/Hfh9ToX.jpg

The Spurs have 11 returning players under contract, plus they're still on the hook for approximately $5.1 million of Pau Gasol's contract after buying him out back in March. All told, San Antonio has a total of approximately $99 million in salaries heading into next season. The salary cap for the 2019-20 season is set to be $109 million.

The team's only free agent of note is Rudy Gay, who is coming off of a one-year, $10 million deal. As always, the Spurs can either re-sign Gay or renounce their rights to him in order to open the most salary cap room possible.

However, here's where things get a bit counterintuitive. In a scenario where the Spurs renounce Gay and don't use their first round picks (either trade the picks away or select draft-and-stash prospects) to save money, the maximum amount of cap space they can open up is a shade under $9 million.

On the other hand, if the Spurs re-sign Gay for a market value amount, they will qualify for the mid-level exception of a little bit more than $9 million. Not only is the MLE worth more than the cap space they can open up, they'd be free to proceed in the draft without concern for the salary cap implications.

Thus, the math ends up being simple: it's better to re-sign Gay and have more money to work with in free agency than to lose Gay, lose draft flexibility and end up with less money for free agents.

What makes the decision even easier is the fact that bringing back Gay is likely a beneficial move.

1. The 32-year-old is coming off perhaps the most efficient season of his career. He set career-highs in two-point percentage, three-point percentage and rebounding rate. His assist rate was up 50% over his first season with the Spurs, while his usage rate dropped to its lowest point since his rookie season.

2. The Spurs were demonstratively better when Gay played well. Including the playoffs, the Spurs were only 16-18 when Gay scored ten points or less. When he scored more than ten points, the Spurs were 35-20. That's the difference between a 34.5-win pace and a 52.2-win pace.

3. Advanced statistics smiled upon Gay. When he was on the court during the regular season, the Spurs outscored opponents by 4.0 points per 100 possessions. When he was on the bench, the Spurs were outscored by 0.5 points per 100 possessions. RPM (real plus-minus) graded Gay as the team's second best player on a per-minute basis and a top ten player at his position in the league, no matter if you classify him as a small forward or a power forward.

4. Considering Gay relies mostly on size and length to score in isolation situations, he should age reasonably well. He'll have to transition more and more to being a full-time power forward but he appears to be capable. It's not a stretch to imagine he could navigate down the Robert Horry-like route: enter the league as a SF and extend his career as a PF.

5. He fits the DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge timeline. It's very unlikely that he'd command an extended contract. Additionally, by all accounts he not only gets along with DeRozan and Aldridge, he serves a mentorship role for the team's up-and-coming players.

Unless a team falls in love with Gay and offers him a lucrative, multi-season contract, it shouldn't be too complicated to bring him back into the fold. Would a team give him three-plus seasons at the MLE? Unlikely. Would a team with salary cap space use it on Gay? Even more unlikely.

Gay made $8.4 million in his first season with the Spurs. This year, he made $10.1 million in his second season. When free agency begins, the Spurs can offer him a one-year, $12.1 million contract. If that doesn't get it done, the Spurs can partially guarantee a second season to match outside offers.

Preferably, the Spurs are able to get Gay back on a one-year deal to maximize their potential salary cap space next summer. However, a two-year contract is palatable, as it corresponds with what is likely to be the DeRozan and Aldridge window.

Going longer than two years on a Gay contract would be unwise. That said, if it comes down to it, the Spurs can use their Early Bird rights to sign Gay to a fully guaranteed two-year contract worth more than $36 million. That should be more than enough to match any offer he gets on the open market.

After the draft and with the inevitable re-signing of Gay, the Spurs could turn their attention to how to best use the MLE. While they are allowed to split the $9-plus million MLE, with how the roster is constructed, it'd likely be best to consolidate their spending and use it on a single player.

Sure, the roster isn't exactly brimming with talent, but it does -- due specifically to the return of Dejounte Murray and the hopeful ascension of Lonnie Walker IV -- have most of the available minutes already accounted for going into next season.

https://i.imgur.com/EGEOvRk.jpg

Even with those lowball estimates for each player's minutes per game, there are only 16 more minutes available for a tenth man. Considering it's unlikely that any of those nine players will be dropped completely from the rotation barring a notable addition, there's already a minutes crunch -- and that's not even factoring in Walker, Marco Belinelli, Chimezie Metu or any of the three draft picks.

Viewing the roster by position paints a similar picture.

https://i.imgur.com/IlZmUFM.jpg

Point guard and shooting guard are already stuffed to the gills. If another player is added at either one of those positions, it'd probably do more harm than good as a deserving youngster (namely Derrick White, Murray or Walker) would see a minute reduction.

It's now clear that DeRozan is a full-time small forward; during the playoffs, that was basically the only position he played. Considering his rebounding prowess and his deceptively poor lateral quickness on defense, SF makes the most sense for him going forward -- and he's going to eat a lot of those minutes as long as he's around.

Adding a bigman would come with the consequence of negatively impacting minutes for either Davis Bertans, Jakob Poeltl or Gay.

How should the Spurs spend the mid-level exception? The most obvious answer is to use the MLE on a defensive, rangy wing to fortify the backup small forward and power forward spots. San Antonio doesn't have a defensive small forward on their roster, nor do they have an athletic power forward who can both move out on the perimeter defensively and hold their own in the lane. But note, adding such a player for the MLE likely bumps Bertans out of the rotation -- or possibly, but less likely, Poeltl (if the MLE player can also play center) or Gay (if he's a scorer).

The other, less pressing, need is a third string center (unless Metu takes a giant step forward). However, it'd be a questionable decision to invest too much here because, barring injury, it's virtually impossible that the player would be in the rotation during the 2019-20 season. And in today's NBA, third string centers are a dime a dozen.

If the front office is pleased with the current depth of the rotation, the other leading option is to use part of the MLE to bring over 2015 first round draft pick Nikola Milutinov. The 24-year-old center prospect is highly regarded ... but a rotation featuring both him and Poeltl isn't going to happen as long as Aldridge is still around, so this would be a move done with the post-Aldridge future in mind. The rest of the MLE, in this scenario, could be used to bring in a long-term prospect that may help the transition when the DeRozan and Aldridge window closes.

Compared to most Spurs summers, this one appears to be easy to predict, as there just aren't many avenues to travel down that make a whole lot of sense. In forthcoming writeups, I'll investigate various topics including:

-The best fits in the 2019 NBA Draft
-Specific MLE possibilities
-More on the pros and cons of opening up cap room this summer
-Player by player reviews and projections
-Estimating Milutinov's NBA value
-How long to extend the DeRozan and Aldridge window
-The nuclear option to blow up the team next summer
-Max free agent hunting in 2021

Stopped reading at Derozan rebounding prowess. That's why we got fucked over. We need a legit fucking 3 that can rebound ya dumb fuckers. :lol

[dabom6]

And our 3 better be able to fucking play defense. :lol

[talkspurs]

I would like to see us go after Mario Hezonja. I think he will be cheep. give us better Defense then Derozen and is a 3 pt shooter. I dont think he could be had for vet min but something like 4 mil a yr might do it especially if we go quick.

[cutewizard]

Curry vs Curry

Gasol vs Gasol

[cutewizard]

My all time team could look like this

Chamberlain at center

Giannis and Durant at forwards

Pippen and Kawhi at guards!!!

[cutewizard]

Warriors vs Blazers guys

Who shall win???

[spurs10]

Warriors vs Blazers guys

Who shall win??? I think it depends on Durant. A fully loaded GSW is loaded.

[cd021]

Asking who will win against GSW and Portland is like asking what will have a better rotten tomatoes score- a MCU or a DCEU release. There isn't really a point in asking :lol

[SpursRussia]

If Spurs sacrifice their 2 picks to unload Mills (I know, unrealistic), Davis and Belli, can they have cap space for Tobias, Butler or Middleton? Any chance one of these guys signs with us? And does it put SA into contender category, I think loosing those 3 isn’t much of a deal, but having to renounce Gay is going to be painful, as the team would be thin on the wings again

[ZeusWillJudge]

If Spurs sacrifice their 2 picks to unload Mills (I know, unrealistic), Davis and Belli, can they have cap space for Tobias, Butler or Middleton? Any chance one of these guys signs with us? And does it put SA into contender category, I think loosing those 3 isn’t much of a deal, but having to renounce Gay is going to be painful, as the team would be thin on the wings again


There's an expression about "robbing Peter to pay Paul". That's where the Spurs are now. Another way of saying it is that if you're ever lost at sea, you can't survive by eating yourself. If you have to kill one position to get someone at another position, you haven't gotten anywhere.

The Spurs killed any chance of getting out of this hole gracefully/quickly by handing out really bad contracts to Mills and Gasol. And while I understand they were forced to move Kawhi, DeRozan's contract is an albatross too. The only way to get out of bad contracts is to dump them, and that means sacrificing young talent or draft picks. Now, everything they do to try to get better in one place makes them worse in some other place. And when they can finally get out from under some of the current big contracts, their young talent will be in line for big pay raises, which will soak up a lot of freed-up cap space.

There's a big element of timing in building a roster, and the Spurs FO messed that part up.

[SpursRussia]

There's an expression about "robbing Peter to pay Paul". That's where the Spurs are now. Another way of saying it is that if you're ever lost at sea, you can't survive by eating yourself. If you have to kill one position to get someone at another position, you haven't gotten anywhere.

The Spurs killed any chance of getting out of this hole gracefully/quickly by handing out really bad contracts to Mills and Gasol. And while I understand they were forced to move Kawhi, DeRozan's contract is an albatross too. The only way to get out of bad contracts is to dump them, and that means sacrificing young talent or draft picks. Now, everything they do to try to get better in one place makes them worse in some other place. And when they can finally get out from under some of the current big contracts, their young talent will be in line for big pay raises, which will soak up a lot of freed-up cap space.

There's a big element of timing in building a roster, and the Spurs FO messed that part up.

I cannot agree more, so basically there are 3 scenarios:
1. Blow it up, trade all you can for future assets, don’t take back any salary beyond 2021, take advantage of low cap holds of Poeltl and Murray and rookie contracts of Lonnie and Derrick, and try to convince 2 stars to sign here to become instant contenders. Draft well, survive a couple years of sucking, find a replacement for Pop and you’re good to go.
2. Mortgage the future for a potential run for championship in the coming 2 years with LMA, DDR and 3rd star, by clearing the capspace this year. This 3rd star can be traded in 2021, if not on a toxic contract and DDR will be an expiring. Then Pop retires and we start “the process”
3. Continue this treadmill, our “star” players are not stars enough and need more help and better roster balance, our young guys are not developed enough to compete at WCF level in playoffs, so the team is going nowhere, with a ceiling of 2nd round in a competitive west.

I’d much rather go 1 or 2, than keep watching Mills chuck the games away night in and night out

[cutewizard]

Or root for the Bucks, period.....

That shall heal our misery

[vavvi]

Timvp says (and I agree with him) that we will start those 4 players:
Murray
White
DDR
LMA

so the question is the fifth spot.
I don’t think we can start Poeltl with this group because it has no reliable volume 3pt shooting which Forbes provided for our LMA-Poeltl lineup. White in the playoffs showed a lot of promises but he also showed that he is not ready to be this Forbes-type of spot up shooter.
so the options are:
1. Go extra-small and start Forbes with those 4 guys. I actually think this can work if Murray will be the same kind of rebounder he was before the injury. Sure, the Millsaps of the world will bully us and DDR will have to do a fair amount of boxing out in the paint.

2. Resign and start Gay

3. Start Bertans

4. Acquire and start a new guy

[vavvi]

Our main difference from other playoffs teams: our best and most versatile guys don’t shoot 3s reliably and often enough; our role and one-dimensional players are all 3pt shooters.

[vavvi]

Those 3 and D guys could be either Thabo Sefolosha or Trevor Ariza.

Murray
White
DeRozan
Sefolosha
Aldridge

Forbes
Walker
Bertans
Gay
Poeltl

Mills
Belinelli
19
29
Metu

This starting five is good defensively but has no spacing whatsoever. If you play against them you just put all five of your guys in the paint ))

[exstatic]

The floor opens up without DeRozan, giving everybody better looks. I don't think you need to replace DeRozan with a 20 ppg guy. A 12-15 ppg guy who plays D and shoots threes would make it much more difficult to double team Aldridge, and give White, Murray, Walker, Gay, etc., more space in the paint. So 9 more points total from the top 7 players combined plus 12 from his replacement = 21.
And if Klay replaced DeRozan, the Spurs would be drastically better... those assist & rebound numbers wouldn't mean anything.

You're looking at another 2001 disaster: plenty of shooters and literally NO creators. The Lakers fucking shredded that team in the playoffs. You need guys who can shoot, AND create, at least for themselves, if not for others. If Dejounte's shot is as improved as rumored, and White improves just a little beyond the arc, we'll have that spacing that we need, and a couple of players that can punish closeouts, and space the floor for our mid range duo.

[Big Empty]

You're looking at another 2001 disaster: plenty of shooters and literally NO creators. The Lakers fucking shredded that team in the playoffs. You need guys who can shoot, AND create, at least for themselves, if not for others. If Dejounte's shot is as improved as rumored, and White improves just a little beyond the arc, we'll have that spacing that we need, and a couple of players that can punish closeouts, and space the floor for our mid range duo.On top of this how far along does Walker come this offseason he can drive to the hole fairly well

[DAF86]

This starting five is good defensively but has no spacing whatsoever. If you play against them you just put all five of your guys in the paint ))

The idea is that White, Murray and Sefolosha would be, at least, average level threats as 3pt shooters.

[vavvi]

The idea is that White, Murray and Sefolosha would be, at least, average level threats as 3pt shooters.

But they are not.
1) Sefolosha made less than 1 three pointer a game each of his 15 seasons except 12/13 when he made 1.3. He is a complete liability offensively. In this playoffs he made 1 three-pointer the whole series, and in that game he was -18.
2) I like White. He is a good defender, a good driver, above-average passer and shot creator. But he can't spread the floor. He only made 0.7 long balls per game this season with a bad percentage. In the playoffs Denver dared him to shoot from 3 by the end of the series and he could not respond.
3) Last season Murray attempted just 0.4 threes per game with a horrific percentage of 26%. Yes, I've heard about his improvement but betting on magical progress (and for a player with his shooting mechanics it has to be magical) seems like a long shot.

Betting on those 3 players to provide floor spacing for our 2pt specialist max guys is a very very very risky idea.

[BWS-1994]

Somebody mentioned Hezonja. Any chance Taurean Prince can be had with the MLE?

[DAF86]

But they are not.
1) Sefolosha made less than 1 three pointer a game each of his 15 seasons except 12/13 when he made 1.3. He is a complete liability offensively. In this playoffs he made 1 three-pointer the whole season, and in that game he was -18.
2) I like White. He is a good defender, a good driver, above-average passer and shot creator. But he can't spread the floor. He only made 0.7 long balls per game this season with a bad percentage. In the playoffs Denver dared him to shoot from 3 by the end of the series and he could not respond.
3) Last season Murray attempted just 0.4 threes per game with a horrific percentage of 26%. Yes, I've heard about his improvement but betting on magical progress (and for a player with his shooting mechanics it has to be magical) seems like a long shot.

Betting on those 3 players to provide floor spacing for our 2pt specialist max guys is a very very very risky idea.

A lineup with White, Murray, Sefolosha, should have just as much, if not more, volume 3pt shooting than a lineup with only White and Forbes as 3pt shooters, which is the lineup we finished with, tbh.

If it doesn't work, you can always switch things up; but first I would rather try to see if defenders can knock down shots, than seeing shooters never being able to defend.

[exstatic]

But they are not.
1) Sefolosha made less than 1 three pointer a game each of his 15 seasons except 12/13 when he made 1.3. He is a complete liability offensively. In this playoffs he made 1 three-pointer the whole season, and in that game he was -18.
2) I like White. He is a good defender, a good driver, above-average passer and shot creator. But he can't spread the floor. He only made 0.7 long balls per game this season with a bad percentage. In the playoffs Denver dared him to shoot from 3 by the end of the series and he could not respond.
3) Last season Murray attempted just 0.4 threes per game with a horrific percentage of 26%. Yes, I've heard about his improvement but betting on magical progress (and for a player with his shooting mechanics it has to be magical) seems like a long shot.

Betting on those 3 players to provide floor spacing for our 2pt specialist max guys is a very very very risky idea.

I'd bet on White being closer to his career 36.1%, just a smidgen above league average, than last year's percentage. Shooting is very much a function of your base and stance, both of which would have been affected by his PF flares in both feet.

[R. DeMurre]

I'd bet on White being closer to his career 36.1%, just a smidgen above league average, than last year's percentage. Shooting is very much a function of your base and stance, both of which would have been affected by his PF flares in both feet.

:tu I had Plantar fasciitis once, and it was so distracting that it made most normal tasks more difficult, nevermind actually doing something athletic.

[talkspurs]

Suns looking to trade josh jackson. Would you do it for Marco? I would but I dont know if Pheonix would. They want to get rid of him which is why they might. If they wanted Patty would do that as well as they would have the cap space to absorb the difference.

[BWS-1994]

Suns looking to trade josh jackson. Would you do it for Marco? I would but I dont know if Pheonix would. They want to get rid of him which is why they might. If they wanted Patty would do that as well as they would have the cap space to absorb the difference.

Read that he got arrested in Miami. But if the Suns get Zion, he’ll be easier to get I guess.

[talkspurs]

from what I have seen that is part of the reason they are trying to trade him. It would not be your typical spur player but it was not to bad and would give us a good defender who has some offense game but has not developed like hoped.

[RC_Drunkford]

why do you guys want Sefolosha as a Power Forward? Marcus Morris or Thad Young make way more sense

[vavvi]

I'd bet on White being closer to his career 36.1%, just a smidgen above league average, than last year's percentage. Shooting is very much a function of your base and stance, both of which would have been affected by his PF flares in both feet.

Sure. I hope he improves too but in the proposed lineup he's the best shooter, and "a smidgen above league average" is not enough for this role.
Also I just think stretching the floor is a waste of his talents. Sure he should attempt 2 or 3 per game but he should drive to the hoop in most cases.

Our situation is unique. Our stars don't shoot 3s at all. We can't afford having 3 reluctant shooters on the floor with them. That's exactly why our roster this season was filled with one-dimensional shooters. Only with role players shooting & truly stretching the floor we can survive in today's league offensively.

[vavvi]

why do you guys want Sefolosha as a Power Forward? Marcus Morris or Thad Young make way more sense

Sefolosha is done and can't shoot. We shouldn't go near him.
I still don't fully trust Morris but he's a much better fit

[vavvi]

A lineup with White, Murray, Sefolosha, should have just as much, if not more, volume 3pt shooting than a lineup with only White and Forbes as 3pt shooters, which is the lineup we finished with, tbh.


No it won't be. Forbes is the real volume 3pt shooter. That's exactly why he played so many minutes.
Sefolosha don't shoot at all. Murray when he actually played ball on the court couldn't shoot at all. White is better but still nobody is afraid of his threes.
I'd rather go super small and start Murray + White + Forbes. Or try someone like Morris as proposed above.

[tbdog]

Morris makes sense because he can play against bigger 3's but he cak also play along side our two bigs in the front court. Thad Young I really like but don't like him in our current makeup. He is more of a cutting, slashing midrange guy. I think his corner threes are good but you really need to play to each player's strengths, rather than forcing a need.

[vavvi]

Morris makes sense because he can play against bigger 3's but he cak also play along side our two bigs in the front court. Thad Young I really like but don't like him in our current makeup. He is more of a cutting, slashing midrange guy. I think his corner threes are good but you really need to play to each player's strengths, rather than forcing a need.

He does but I don’t see him coming to us with all those KD Knicks rumored proposals. He’s in demand

[tbdog]

He does but I don’t see him coming to us with all those KD Knicks rumored proposals. He’s in demand

Have I missed something. What does kd Knicks got to do with Morris?

[vavvi]

Have I missed something. What does kd Knicks got to do with Morris?

Just rumors that Knicks may be getting Morris as well.
Anyway he was like top3 Celtic in terms of consistency this season; he’ll have options. Not sure he’ll choose SAS

[mo7888]

Just rumors that Knicks may be getting Morris as well.
Anyway he was like top3 Celtic in terms of consistency this season; he’ll have options. Not sure he’ll choose SAS

I thought the rumor was KD and either kyrie, Kemba, or butler? If they get KD and any if those guys I don't think they will have room to sign Morris.

[exstatic]

Read that he got arrested in Miami. But if the Suns get Zion, he’ll be easier to get I guess.

He got arrested, and fled still wearing the cuffs. Supposedly, he repeatedly tried to get into the VIP section of a music fest, and was rebuffed. I'm not sure he's a bad guy or anything, but he strikes me as a major idiot. The way cops are in this country now, evading arrest can get you shot dead, rather quickly if you're black.

The Spurs would be able to get a real background picture on him, if they choose to. He went to KU, and Bill Self is besties with RC.

[vavvi]

I thought the rumor was KD and either kyrie, Kemba, or butler? If they get KD and any if those guys I don't think they will have room to sign Morris.

You never know with the Knicks. They always find a way to do something stupid.

”Multiple league sources tell NBC Sports Boston that the Knicks, a team with plenty of roster holes to fill this offseason, have interest in at least two other Celtics players besides Irving — Marcus Morris and Terry Rozier — who like Irving, will be free agents this summer.”

[mo7888]

You never know with the Knicks. They always find a way to do something stupid.

”Multiple league sources tell NBC Sports Boston that the Knicks, a team with plenty of roster holes to fill this offseason, have interest in at least two other Celtics players besides Irving — Marcus Morris and Terry Rozier — who like Irving, will be free agents this summer.”

Rozier and Morris are only options if they strike out on pairing a top tier FA with KD though.

[vavvi]

Rozier and Morris are only options if they strike out on pairing a top tier FA with KD though.

Rozier would be epically idiotic for them. Like they don’t already have undersized PGs who can barely pass or defend

[lmbebo]

isn't Rozier a restricted FA anyways? If Irving Bolts, can see Celtics matching.

[mo7888]

Rozier would be epically idiotic for them. Like they don’t already have undersized PGs who can barely pass or defend

I agree with that

[vavvi]

isn't Rozier a restricted FA anyways? If Irving Bolts, can see Celtics matching.

He is restricted. But I can see them letting him go even with Irving gone

[lmbebo]

Why? They have a glut at 2/3, not the 1 ...

[R. DeMurre]

Interesting to see the most famous tanking teams get into some anxious times.... Boston looks like it will be losing Irving for nothing, and will become a pretty ordinary playoff team. Philly's future depends on the unreliable health of Embiid, they're in danger of losing either one or both of Butler and Harris, and still have issues with Simmons being an absolute non-shooter. I don't get those who want the Spurs to tank-- only in the very best scenario would it work, and it's much more likely they'd wind up with something like a #7 pick, who might be a good player, but most likely wouldn't transform the franchise.

[timvp]

Suns looking to trade josh jackson.

The Spurs might be able to look past his arrest but not the time that he blew off a fan event while posting pics of himself on Instagram at a restaurant (http://arizonasports.com/story/1856863/suns-josh-jackson-fined-20000-after-no-show-at-autograph-signing/). That's not coffee gang material :lol

[vavvi]

Why? They have a glut at 2/3, not the 1 ...

Just because he sucks and talks too much

[venitian navigator]

The Spurs might be able to look past his arrest but not the time that he blew off a fan event while posting pics of himself on Instagram at a restaurant (http://arizonasports.com/story/1856863/suns-josh-jackson-fined-20000-after-no-show-at-autograph-signing/). That's not coffee gang material :lol

All this stuff look more as an undisciplined and not grown man than something really bad...maybe being part of a good group of good teammates like ours and a stable and disciplined environment like the one our trainers can give could benefit him a lot. If Phoenix has given up on him, a trade could be worth the risk...because his skills are exactly what our team seemes to need. He was a top five draft pick talent without doubt...and his defense alone should do wonder for our perimeter...

[DPG21920]

The Spurs might be able to look past his arrest but not the time that he blew off a fan event while posting pics of himself on Instagram at a restaurant (http://arizonasports.com/story/1856863/suns-josh-jackson-fined-20000-after-no-show-at-autograph-signing/). That's not coffee gang material :lol

Hey, question related to all of this. Do you feel that the DeRozan move was made with a title push in mind or just stay afloat?

SA made the playoffs without DeRozan or Kawhi, so it’s hard for me to believe they made that type of deal hoping to stay the same.

If that is the case, did SA decide after seeing this year that original intentions inside, going all in (meaning trading picks and youth for a win-now player) was no longer worth it and do you think DeRozan should be traded if they are not going to make a strong push to win now?

[DPG21920]

The Spurs might be able to look past his arrest but not the time that he blew off a fan event while posting pics of himself on Instagram at a restaurant (http://arizonasports.com/story/1856863/suns-josh-jackson-fined-20000-after-no-show-at-autograph-signing/). That's not coffee gang material :lol


Patty’s job is to convert; you don’t get paid 13M to babysit guys who are already good teammates tbh...you get paid to establish culture and change behavior.

[DAF86]

No it won't be. Forbes is the real volume 3pt shooter. That's exactly why he played so many minutes.
Sefolosha don't shoot at all. Murray when he actually played ball on the court couldn't shoot at all. White is better but still nobody is afraid of his threes.
I'd rather go super small and start Murray + White + Forbes. Or try someone like Morris as proposed above.

Sefolosha put up 1.6 3pa on 12 minutes per game last season. If you extrapolate that to 36 mpg, it adds up to 4.8 3pa per game. That's right about what Forbes attempted. If you then add White and Murray, who should both see a career high in 3pa per game next season, then you have roughly the same amount of 3pa that the White, Forbes, DeRozan, Aldridge, Poeltl lineup provided.

[slick'81]

Sefolosha put up 1.6 3pa on 12 minutes per game last season. If you extrapolate that to 36 mpg, it adds up to 4.8 3pa per game. That's right about what Forbes attempted. If you then add White and Murray, who should both see a career high in 3pa per game next season, then you have roughly the same amount of 3pa that the White, Forbes, DeRozan, Aldridge, Poeltl lineup provided.


Does thabo have anything left at 35 ?

[DAF86]

Does thabo have anything left at 35 ?

To he honest, I really don't know. His metrics look pretty damn good in limited minutes though. He aslo shot like 43% from 3. If he can be had for the vet min, he's more than worth the gamble.

[RC_Drunkford]

If you can add him to the team for vet minimum do it. But spend the MLE on a real 3-and-D SF with size who's under 35 years old please

[SpursBig3s]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/airalamo.com/2019/05/13/san-antonio-spurs-exploring-deal-free-agent-thaddeus-young/amp/

Spurs interested in Thaddeus Young?

[exstatic]

Hilarious, and complete irony. I've always really like his game, and I loved those Philly teams with Thad, Iggy, and Jrue. The franchise didn't like where they were, a second round out, and gave them away one by one, tanking in an EXTREMELY painful process over FIVE YEARS. After all of that, what are they now? A second round out. :lol

[Pavlov]

Hey, question related to all of this. Do you feel that the DeRozan move was made with a title push in mind or just stay afloat?

SA made the playoffs without DeRozan or Kawhi, so it’s hard for me to believe they made that type of deal hoping to stay the same.

If that is the case, did SA decide after seeing this year that original intentions inside, going all in (meaning trading picks and youth for a win-now player) was no longer worth it and do you think DeRozan should be traded if they are not going to make a strong push to win now?I'll just speak for the homers and say that it's completely easy and realistic to say that this year's team with all its flaws were one Dejounte away from the conference finals.

The corporate knowledge and especially the defense that left the team with Leonard, Green and Anderson can't be overstated, and the kinds of performances they Spurs did show on occasion (that Bertans himself described) make me conclude that they think they're on the right track and only need mostly internal development and minor additions to get them over the hump.

That's not necessarily my view (Patty especially looks expendable to me and I'd be auditioning every 3andD player I could find) but barring multiple trade demands, don't expect a whole lot of movement this summer.

[pad300]

Offbeat FA suggestion - Tomas Satoransky (WAS, RFA). For that 3/D wing. Yeah, he's been playing PG for WAS with Wall out, but :
He's 6'7" in shoes. (Short wingspan though).
He hit 39% from three on 2 att/g.
He can pass and handle.
Very good defensive positioning, but fast guards can make him look bad. This should be less of a problem against wings rather than PG's.

[duncan2150]

I just saw some European reports talking about an 7million/3 year offer from Barcelona to mulitinov

i don’t think bringing him over will cost too much. 3 million per year could be enough.

[Fusternino]

I just saw some European reports talking about an 7million/3 year offer from Barcelona to mulitinov

i don’t think bringing him over will cost too much. 3 million per year could be enough.

Would prefer to draft Bruno Fernando at this point, tbh.

[pad300]

I just saw some European reports talking about an 7million/3 year offer from Barcelona to mulitinov

i don’t think bringing him over will cost too much. 3 million per year could be enough.


Would prefer to draft Bruno Fernando at this point, tbh.

Nah, think in terms of opportunity cost. Milutinov is about Fernando's median outcome. A pick + Milutinov > Fernando.

[Chinook]

I just saw some European reports talking about an 7million/3 year offer from Barcelona to mulitinov

i don’t think bringing him over will cost too much. 3 million per year could be enough.

It'd be more expensive for SA to match with taxes. There would also be having to relocate.

[Marcus Bryant]

It’s 2019 and the Spurs are looking for an athletic 3.

[Marcus Bryant]

Sounds like it’s time to bring over Mulitinov, need to know what you have, figure out rotation later.

[Marcus Bryant]

Glass half full - Spurs adding Murray, decent free agent, two 1st round picks to playoff team.

Glass half empty - Spurs stuck in purgatory with Aldridge and DeRozan contracts.

Glass empty - https://s.hdnux.com/photos/06/47/04/1732914/4/920x920.jpg

[duncan2150]

So now that we drafted samanic and Johnson, assuming gay comes back , what positions do we need to finalize the roster ?

Pg Murray/mills
sg white/Forbes/Walker
sf derozan/beli/ johnson
pf gay/ Bertans/ samanic/ metu
c aldridge/poetl

imo we need another inside guy, a C who could back up aldridge or poetl and a true sf but that probably mean cutting someone.

Metu appears to be the natural cut but beli could also be in play and then sign milutinov or another cheap C and an sf with the MLE.

what are people think about that ?

[RC_Drunkford]

Need a starting SF. Need a 3rd string C. Ideally need a defensive small ball PF too if possible. But first we need a trade

[LongtimeSpursFan]

Need a starting SF. Need a 3rd string C. Ideally need a defensive small ball PF too if possible. But first we need a trade


Small forward....check
Trade.... check
Small ball PF....check.

We might be a top 4 team in Western Conference now.

[Marcus Bryant]

If they could pull a S&T with Boston they could preserve the full MLE.