Why do black Democrats like Joe Biden?

[Will Hunting]

Serious question. His comment about Obama in 2007 was about as racist as it gets. He helped draft the crime bill. He was against desegregation. Despite all of this, he has the overwhelming support of black voters in the primary polling so far.

Black Democrats are stupid as it gets in voting against their own best interests.

[hater]

LMAO no major black vote will come out for average joe

Joe runs demo and it's Trump 2.0 for sure

Let's not forget right now 1/3 of blacks support Trump

[Trill Clinton]

Can you provide some evidence? Most of the people I've spoken to are on the Warren train. A lot of AA's have been calling Biden out for his past policies.

[Will Hunting]

Can you provide some evidence? Most of the people I've spoken to are on the Warren train. A lot of AA's have been calling Biden out for his past policies.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/05/07/black-voters-helped-make-joe-biden-democratic-front-runner-will-they-keep-him-there/?utm_term=.c574c78c2150


In these recent polls, Quinnipiac (https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us04302019_upaf67.pdf/) said Biden had 42 percent support among nonwhite Democrats. CNN put his nonwhite support at 50 percent (http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2019/images/04/29/rel6a.-.2020.democrats.pdf). Biden’s closest competitor among Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters of all races, Sanders, won 14 percent of the nonwhite vote in the CNN poll and 7 percent in Quinnipiac. Sens. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) and Kamala D. Harris (D-Calif.) each earned less than 10 percent of the nonwhite vote in these polls. The Hill/HarrisX (https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/442310-joe-biden) and Harvard-Harris (https://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/HHP_April2019_RV_crosstab.pdf) both have Biden leading Sanders by over 30 points with African American voters.

I think the people you're speaking to are younger black voters who are more progressive and informed, but they're only a small contingent of the black vote just because (no different than young white voters) they don't show up to the polls consistently. The middle aged/older black voters who voters the way his/her pastor recommends is much greater in numbers and shows up to the polls much more consistently.

[Trill Clinton]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/05/07/black-voters-helped-make-joe-biden-democratic-front-runner-will-they-keep-him-there/?utm_term=.c574c78c2150



I think the people you're speaking to are younger black voters who are more progressive and informed, but they're only a small contingent of the black vote just because (no different than young white voters) they don't show up to the polls consistently. The middle aged/older black voters who voters the way his/her pastor recommends is much greater in numbers and shows up to the polls much more consistently.

Thanks.

Yea I'm in touch with the younger crowd. I think the older black voters just want the best odds at beating trump and Biden, according to the polls Biden is the strongest candidate, I disagree. It's like how all the white people banded together for Trump.

[Will Hunting]

Thanks.

Yea I'm in touch with the younger crowd. I think the older black voters just want the best odds at beating trump and Biden, according to the polls is the strongest candidate, I disagree. It's like how all the white people banded together for Trump.
I think you're giving them too much credit. Just like the older uneducated white Democrat voters, the older uneducated black voters are simply misinformed and subscribe the the horseshit belief that moderate = higher chance of winning because it's what MSNBC and CNN cram down everyone's throat.

I don't think Biden is as repulsive as Hillary just because he's got a more likable personality, so he might still beat Trump, but it would be in spite of shitty turnout among young voters and minority voters if Biden is the candidate.

[Spurminator]

I expect young people will show up regardless. Now that they know that Trump can win, and what that means, they'll vote for Biden regardless of how exciting he is. I think they also understand they won't be voting for 1994 Biden with a 1994 Congress either.

[FrostKing]

Overall Trump is a moderate. So I disagree a moderate Democrat has lower probability.

In an increasingly diverse landscape, you kinda need to be a flip flopper. People can't keep up with every political promise and once they commit to a candidate they are likely to label countering evidence "fake news"

[boutons_deux]

I expect young people will show up regardless. Now that they know that Trump can win, and what that means, they'll vote for Biden regardless of how exciting he is. I think they also understand they won't be voting for 1994 Biden with a 1994 Congress either.

Obama certainly benefited from, after 8 years of Repug Reign of Terror and Error, the "anybody but a Repug" sentiment, although Obama was for 10Ms attractive candidate on his own

After 4 years of Trash, Biden, even with his bad history and outdated politics, would certainly benefit from "anybody but more Trash" sentiment.

[Will Hunting]

Overall Trump is a moderate.
:lmao

[Will Hunting]

As I said in the other thread, it just sucks we don't have any empirical data on how a centrist corporate Democrat would fare in an election against Trump in order to address the argument about whether a moderate has a better or worse chance. It would be a lot easier to figure this out if we had any kind of insight or prior knowledge about how centrist Democrats do in elections vs. Trump.

[hater]

No. Biden runs and Trump is a lock.

His own campaign has him in hiding as of right now for a reason :lol

Niga wasn't even allowed to attend California DNC for christsakes :lmao

Trump would absolutely obliterate him. Just like I called Trump would do with Shitler in 20q6

[Trainwreck2100]

Let's face it whoever wins the Dem nomination will have serious baggage, be it one of the w:lolmen, the gay guy, or the two old white guys. It will come down to whether or not people actually hold their noses and vote for them. The republicans will always do that, the question is will the AA's and the college obama/trump voters do it. I do believe that the Dems need the black vote for NC and michigan though. I think the people that sat out the election made the difference in those states.

[Will Hunting]

Obama certainly benefited from, after 8 years of Repug Reign of Terror and Error, the "anybody but a Repug" sentiment, although Obama was for 10Ms attractive candidate on his own

After 4 years of Trash, Biden, even with his bad history and outdated politics, would certainly benefit from "anybody but more Trash" sentiment.

Trump's approval rating is in the low 40s right now while Bush's was in the low 30s leading up to the 2008 election, the two situations aren't comparable. The polls also still don't accurately account for rural voters having much higher rates of participation than urban/suburban voters, so his approval rating among people who will actually vote is probably closer to 45%.

[Trill Clinton]

I think you're giving them too much credit. Just like the older uneducated white Democrat voters, the older uneducated black voters are simply misinformed and subscribe the the horseshit belief that moderate = higher chance of winning because it's what MSNBC and CNN cram down everyone's throat.

I don't think Biden is as repulsive as Hillary just because he's got a more likable personality, so he might still beat Trump, but it would be in spite of shitty turnout among young voters and minority voters if Biden is the candidate.

At this point it's name recognition and familiarity. I just Google searched your question in the OP and damn near every article backs up what I said about them just wanting to vote for whoever beats trump. I have hope that Warren continues her surge and the old guard catches up. I think voter turnout in 2020 will be much better than last election.

[Pavlov]

Serious question. His comment about Obama in 2007 was about as racist as it gets. He helped draft the crime bill. He was against desegregation. Despite all of this, he has the overwhelming support of black voters in the primary polling so far.

Black Democrats are stupid as it gets in voting against their own best interests.He was Obama's right hand man for eight years. It's not rocket science.

[Will Hunting]

No. Biden runs and Trump is a lock.

His own campaign has him in hiding as of right now for a reason :lol

Niga wasn't even allowed to attend California DNC for christsakes :lmao

Trump would absolutely obliterate him. Just like I called Trump would do with Shitler in 20q6
Trump didn't "obliterate" Hillary. He narrowly won 3 states that she arrogantly thought she had in the bag but easily could have won. The only time in the last 20 years that one candidate "obliterated" the other in a general was Obama over McCain in 2008. Every other election since 1996 has been decided by swing states where the candidates were within a few percentage points of each other (even the 2012 election could have easily flipped if Republican turnout wasn't so shitty), and unless the economy craters between now and 2020 the 2020 election is going to be another close election.

Biden v. Trump would be pretty close a coin flip IMO that's probably decided by how the economy does between now and 2020. Biden might be a bland centrist but he doesn't have the repulsive personality Hillary has.

[Will Hunting]

He was Obama's right hand man for eight years. It's not rocket science.
So they like him because he was appointed by Obama to what's ultimately a powerless position that doesn't do anything other than break a tie in the Senate? That's a pretty stupid reason to overlook his history on issues like desegregation and criminal justice reform.

[Pavlov]

So they like him because he was appointed by Obama to what's ultimately a powerless position that doesn't do anything other than break a tie in the Senate? That's a pretty stupid reason to overlook his history on issues like desegregation and criminal justice reform.It's the reason. If he's good enough for Obama he's good enough for them.

Trump had a history of being a Democrat. Times change.

[FrostKing]

So they like him because he was appointed by Obama to what's ultimately a powerless position that doesn't do anything other than break a tie in the Senate? That's a pretty stupid reason to overlook his history on issues like desegregation and criminal justice reform.
In my experience the black community participates and supports these left groups such as LGT etc but mostly just because they support back. The average black American is rather old fashioned in terms of males in the household, gays and gun rights.

[Will Hunting]

It's the reason. If he's good enough for Obama he's good enough for them.

Trump had a history of being a Democrat. Times change.
Biden continues to defend the crime bill to this day, it's not something he's tried to downplay or says he regrets.

I also have no doubt it's at least part of the reason. I think you know the question in the OP was largely rhetorical.

[CitizenDwayne]

They think he can win. Only reason anyone likes him

[Trill Clinton]

In my experience the black community participates and supports these left groups such as LGT etc but mostly just because they support back. The average black American is rather old fashioned in terms of males in the household, gays and gun rights.

That's false.

[Pavlov]

Biden continues to defend the crime bill to this day, it's not something he's tried to downplay or says he regrets.

I also have no doubt it's at least part of the reason. I think you know the question in the OP was largely rhetorical.I guess. The violent crime rate is a little more than half of what it was in the early 90s and coincidently or not the rate went into a freefall after the 1994 crime bill was passed. The incarceration rate OTOH had been blowing up for two full decades before the 1994 bill was passed due mainly to what individual states were doing. Again, correlation isn't causation, but Biden can actually brag about being in the administration when the incarceration trend finally reversed.

It's just not so cut and dry that Biden can't defend himself on the issue at all. Pardon the double negative.

[Spurminator]

As I said in the other thread, it just sucks we don't have any empirical data on how a centrist corporate Democrat would fare in an election against Trump in order to address the argument about whether a moderate has a better or worse chance. It would be a lot easier to figure this out if we had any kind of insight or prior knowledge about how centrist Democrats do in elections vs. Trump.

I think you have to consider Trump's incumbency as a variable when comparing 2016 to 2020. Seemed like enough liberal voters thought Hillary was a shoe-in that they stayed home. I don't expect that to be the case in 2020.

You also have to consider perception as a "centrist." Most Trump voters certainly didn't view Hillary as a centrist.

[Will Hunting]

I guess. The violent crime rate is a little more than half of what it was in the early 90s and coincidently or not the rate went into a freefall after the 1994 crime bill was passed. The incarceration rate OTOH had been blowing up for two full decades before the 1994 bill was passed due mainly to what individual states were doing. Again, correlation isn't causation, but Biden can actually brag about being in the administration when the incarceration trend finally reversed.

It's just not so cut and dry that Biden can't defend himself on the issue at all. Pardon the double negative.
I agree he can defend himself on the issue but I guess my point is that a moderate amount of research shows that his record on the issue is extremely blemished, not to mention the fact that if he's truly against mass incarceration/the war on drugs and wants criminal justice reform, he hasn't exactly been enthusiastic in proposing changes as part of his campaign platform. He's focused entirely on trying to convince voters that he hasn't been part of the problem but hasn't done anything to show that he'd be part of the solution.

His contribution to mass incarceration predates the crime bill. He cosponsored Strom Thurman's 1984 Comprehensive Crime Control Act (his extensive work with Thurman on criminal justice issues alone should be a red flag for black voters), was a big proponent of both anti-drug abuse acts in the 1980s. He also made an effort to more or less outdo GHWB on harsher penalties for non-violent offenses. He even bragged about a crime bill he got through the senate claiming that it "does everything but hang people for jaywalking".

I don't think there's a ton of gray area to the fact that Biden was a big proponent of stiff penalties for non-violent drug offenses during the 80s and 90s when incarceration rates were booming.

[Will Hunting]

I think you have to consider Trump's incumbency as a variable when comparing 2016 to 2020. Seemed like enough liberal voters thought Hillary was a shoe-in that they stayed home. I don't expect that to be the case in 2020.
Seems like it would be a hell of a lot easier and sensible to elect a candidate who the base actually likes and will show up for instead of hope and pray that the unlikeability of Trump alone with be enough to inspire turnout from progressives.


You also have to consider perception as a "centrist." Most Trump voters certainly didn't view Hillary as a centrist.
Those Trump voters aren't going to view Biden (or anyone else coming out of the Democratic primary for that matter) as a centrist either, and I'm not sure why people keep making the "but Trump voters think Hillary is a socialist!" argument as if Democrats should run a candidate as far to the right as possible in order to try and convince Derp and Chris that said candidate isn't an ultra left wing communist out to destroy America. The 35% of America that watches Fox News and Dnesh Dsouza movies are going to view the Democratic candidate as a dangerous extremist no matter what.

[Pavlov]

I agree he can defend himself on the issue but I guess my point is that a moderate amount of research shows that his record on the issue is extremely blemished, not to mention the fact that if he's truly against mass incarceration/the war on drugs and wants criminal justice reform, he hasn't exactly been enthusiastic in proposing changes as part of his campaign platform. He's focused entirely on trying to convince voters that he hasn't been part of the problem but hasn't done anything to show that he'd be part of the solution.

His contribution to mass incarceration predates the crime bill. He cosponsored Strom Thurman's 1984 Comprehensive Crime Control Act (his extensive work with Thurman on criminal justice issues alone should be a red flag for black voters), was a big proponent of both anti-drug abuse acts in the 1980s. He also made an effort to more or less outdo GHWB on harsher penalties for non-violent offenses. He even bragged about a crime bill he got through the senate claiming that it "does everything but hang people for jaywalking".

I don't think there's a ton of gray area to the fact that Biden was a big proponent of stiff penalties for non-violent drug offenses during the 80s and 90s when incarceration rates were booming.
I think the people who lived through the 80s and 90s as adults remember how violent it was and will be OK with the reactions. Giuliani was America's Mayor in no small part for getting all tough on crime before Trump's reverse Midas touch

[Spurminator]

dp

[Spurminator]

Seems like it would be a hell of a lot easier and sensible to elect a candidate who the base actually likes and will show up for instead of hope and pray that the unlikeability of Trump alone with be enough to inspire turnout from progressives.

I guess it depends on who you define as the base. Clearly, if the polls are any indication, a lot of Democrats do like Biden and will show up for him regardless of his opponent.


Those Trump voters aren't going to view Biden (or anyone else coming out of the Democratic primary for that matter) as a centrist either, and I'm not sure why people keep making the "but Trump voters think Hillary is a socialist!" argument as if Democrats should run a candidate as far to the right as possible in order to try and convince Derp and Chris that said candidate isn't an ultra left wing communist out to destroy America. The 35% of America that watches Fox News and Dnesh Dsouza movies are going to view the Democratic candidate as a dangerous extremist no matter what.

I wasn't really making an argument in favor of Biden based on the perception of Hillary, I just disagree with how Republican voters will perceive him compared to Hillary.

FOX and D'Sousa viewers are absolutely a lost cause, but I think you overestimate the size of that audience.

A significant portion of Republicans will still show up and still vote for Trump. But it wouldn't take many swing voters to cause a landslide in the other direction. He's at his nadir in approval rating among independents, and if even half of the 13% of Republicans can be persuaded to vote for an uncontroversial centrist like Biden, that's church.

[Will Hunting]

I guess it depends on who you define as the base. Clearly, if the polls are any indication, a lot of Democrats do like Biden and will show up for him regardless of his opponent.
The polls do a shitty job at factor in actual voter participation .


FOX and D'Sousa viewers are absolutely a lost cause, but I think you overestimate the size of that audience.
The Republicans who view Hillary as an extremist are largely the Fox/D'Sousa crowd. I don't think the college educated Republican suburban housewife in Scottsdale Arizona believed Hillary was a left wing extremist.


A significant portion of Republicans will still show up and still vote for Trump. But it wouldn't take many swing voters to cause a landslide in the other direction. He's at his nadir in approval rating among independents, and if even half of the 13% of Republicans can be persuaded to vote for an uncontroversial centrist like Biden, that's church.
It's church right up until the point where Biden gets into office and does nothing to put policies I agree with in place. Even if you're right about Biden being really electable, I don't see the point of putting someone in office who's in favor of continuing our backwards healthcare system, is lukewarm towards addressing climate change, and wants deregulation as much as most Republicans do just to be able to call scoreboard. He's better than Hillary in terms of electability because of his folksy personality but he'd be even worse than Hillary imo in terms of policy he'd favor.

[Spurminator]

The Republicans who view Hillary as an extremist are largely the Fox/D'Sousa crowd. I don't think the college educated Republican suburban housewife in Scottsdale Arizona believed Hillary was a left wing extremist.

A third category - probably the largest: Politically disinterested white suburban conservatives/Christians. They're not heavy cable news viewers but they still associate Clinton with the Lewinsky scandal and think of her as a raging feminist.


It's church right up until the point where Biden gets into office and does nothing to put policies I agree with in place. Even if you're right about Biden being really electable, I don't see the point of putting someone in office who's in favor of continuing our backwards healthcare system, is lukewarm towards addressing climate change, and wants deregulation as much as most Republicans do just to be able to call scoreboard. He's better than Hillary in terms of electability because of his folksy personality but he'd be even worse than Hillary imo in terms of policy he'd favor.

He would need to be pushed by progressives in congress, certainly. But I don't see him being a veto threat on any of those issues.