The true prime of the pro basketball player

[phxspurfan]

tl;dr: When will front offices learn the true prime of a bball player is between 23-27 years old? They keep overpaying these fucks when they're 28-30, only to watch their production crater. The more people realize this, the better the NBA will be.


After quickly looking at KD's stats, I noticed that he clearly had his prime between 23 and 27:

https://i.ibb.co/pXjZ6PM/KD.png

And here's LeBron:

https://i.ibb.co/Brb1BDf/LBJ.png

TD:

https://i.ibb.co/QnZdLdz/TD.png

Kobe:

https://i.ibb.co/j4PPj9D/Kobe.png

CP0:

https://i.ibb.co/pKSNNcK/CP0.png

...and MJ (albeit you can't compare normal players to the GOAT):

https://i.ibb.co/G306Pyq/MJ.png


Key point being, if front offices paid and emphasized more the 23-27 range for players and less the 27-29 range, they would be getting more bang for their bucks and not paying players into their 30s, which is always a mistake. Take a note from the NFL. 30 is when you drop off, unless you're Brady and get help from the refs, deflate balls, tape defensive formations and such.

Once the ridiculous "Please let the NCAA still profit" one-and-done rule is removed in the next CBA negotiations, star players who are correctly identified in their late teens will be able to enter and thrive in the NBA at 18 again. There, they can enjoy a few years of development and earn the most while they play their best. There will be much less angst about production in their 30s, when everyone knows their bodies are slowing and breaking down.

[K...]

But isn't it harder to guess talent among young people? Such that the chance of bust on 30yr old is low, production steady, injury risk rising, vs young person chance to not reach potential.


Basically, your pay for information

[Thread]

tl;dr: When will front offices learn the true prime of a bball player is between 23-27 years old? They keep overpaying these fucks when they're 28-30, only to watch their production crater. The more people realize this, the better the NBA will be.


After quickly looking at KD's stats, I noticed that he clearly had his prime between 23 and 27:

https://i.ibb.co/pXjZ6PM/KD.png

And here's LeBron:

https://i.ibb.co/Brb1BDf/LBJ.png

TD:

https://i.ibb.co/QnZdLdz/TD.png

Kobe:

https://i.ibb.co/j4PPj9D/Kobe.png

CP0:

https://i.ibb.co/pKSNNcK/CP0.png

...and MJ (albeit you can't compare normal players to the GOAT):

https://i.ibb.co/G306Pyq/MJ.png


Key point being, if front offices paid and emphasized more the 23-27 range for players and less the 27-29 range, they would be getting more bang for their bucks and not paying players into their 30s, which is always a mistake. Take a note from the NFL. 30 is when you drop off, unless you're Brady and get help from the refs, deflate balls, tape defensive formations and such.

Once the ridiculous "Please let the NCAA still profit" one-and-done rule is removed in the next CBA negotiations, star players who are correctly identified in their late teens will be able to enter and thrive in the NBA at 18 again. There, they can enjoy a few years of development and earn the most while they play their best. There will be much less angst about production in their 30s, when everyone knows their bodies are slowing and breaking down.

Your finest hour, pf.

[phxspurfan]

But isn't it harder to guess talent among young people? Such that the chance of bust on 30yr old is low, production steady, injury risk rising, vs young person chance to not reach potential.


Basically, your pay for information

True. Hence, letting them play NBA ball at 18 (similar to Europe) instead of forcing them to sit through a year of "college" while random nerds take their tests, and they supposedly don't get paid :lol

They should go right to the NBA or G-League when they are identified out of AAU ball or whatever. We as fans would get to watch, and owners of teams would pay, for their true primes -- 23-27, after developing them in their teens like they do in Europe.

[Arcadian]

I think everyone knows this. There are some players like Steve Nash who experience their primes in the late 20s to early 30s, though.

[R. DeMurre]

Statistically, NBA players peak around 27-28. Using PPG as the only factor isn't realistic, because it doesn't take the all-important efficiency into account. In KD's first season with Golden State (age 28), his PPG went down slightly but his efficiency went way up: he had the highest FG% and ORtg of his career that season, and won his first ring.

[phxspurfan]

Statistically, NBA players peak around 27-28. Using PPG as the only factor isn't realistic, because it doesn't take the all-important efficiency into account. In KD's first season with Golden State (age 28), his PPG went down slightly but his efficiency went way up: he had the highest FG% and ORtg of his career that season, and won his first ring.

He was also surrounded by 3 all stars. On OKC he had to go 1v5 with constant double teams. On GS if teams doubled Durant that would have been suicide, so he got only one of the other team's 2 best defenders on the court. Plus gravity from their shooters to open up the lanes. And not to mention the bullshit foul calls making defenders not able to play defense

[R. DeMurre]

He was also surrounded by 3 all stars. On OKC he had to go 1v5 with constant double teams. On GS if teams doubled Durant that would have been suicide, so he got only one of the other team's 2 best defenders on the court. Plus gravity from their shooters to open up the lanes. And not to mention the bullshit foul calls making defenders not able to play defense

True, but my point still stands... having a higher PPG and lower efficiency at age 24 doesn't make you a better player.

[FrostKing]

To make a definite ruling we need more data crunching. Some of your case study changed teams and/or experienced a drastic roster change like acquiring another scorer.

I also think as players age their focus shifts to the postseason. And even then I want to compare their output in 4th Quarters etc.

But overall as poster above argued - it is ultimately bout efficiency not just an arbitrary statistic like PPG. I.E Giannis will likely see a dip in his regular season scoring average moving forward in his development but he'll be a more dangerous player late in games.

[Ulysses]

id take and pay a 32 year old Duncan, KD, Lebron, Kobe at 50% health over any 23-27 year old tbh

[apalisoc_9]

KD was at his absolute best around age 28-30.

Lol at using ppg :lmao

[endrity]

Minutes played matters, an so does overall effort. Top stars in and around 30 years old know the ins and outs of the league, they are saving themselves for the playoffs. The younger stars are gunning for MVP and scoring titles, playing hard every minute and establishing themselves.

LeBron at age 32 beat the 73 win Warriors. He has never played an overall better game than he did during the 2016 playoffs. Athletically he was nowhere 2009, but he was a surgeon at that point.

Dirk had his best statistical regular seasons in 2004-07, when he was 3rd, 3rd and 1st in MVP voting. He was 26-29 during that period. But he was never better as an overall influence than from 2008-11, ages 30-32. He had mastered every shot, every defensive look, he took his time and knew how to kill you at every single spot.

Duncan is kind of an expection in that he was so mature from the go, his reading of the game was superb since a young age, and in many ways it looks like he declined as his athleticism did as well. But the fact that he was still a Top 3 player in the league at age 31 in 2007, shows you the same result.

To summarize, the truly great ones decline a bit athletically in their late 20s/early 30s. But they more than make up for it by improving their skills and understanding of the game, though this can be seen only in key moments. In many ways, their absolute peak is actually right around that time.

Goes without saying that this is true for only a handful of players, 7-8 every decade at best. Russ will most likely never be part of that group

[phxspurfan]

KD was at his absolute best around age 28-30

Case in point. Then he got a huge contract from the Nets just now which will take him to mid 30s. Possibly the biggest contract of his career.

[Spurtacular]

Yea, one or two analysts in the 90's said 28-32 was prime and the minions ran with it. But late 20's / early 30's being prime is stupid on its face for athleticism. Though sometimes it is prime for effectiveness and/or efficiency when players understand the game better and are still at a high percent of their prime athletically.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Yea, one or two analysts in the 90's said 28-32 was prime and the minions ran with it. But late 20's / early 30's being prime is stupid on its face for athleticism. Though sometimes it is prime for effectiveness and/or efficiency when players understand the game better and are still at a high percent of their prime athletically.
Closer to football as you might not expect, as opposed to baseball where the prime is early to mid 30s.

[R. DeMurre]

Yea, one or two analysts in the 90's said 28-32 was prime and the minions ran with it. But late 20's / early 30's being prime is stupid on its face for athleticism. Though sometimes it is prime for effectiveness and/or efficiency when players understand the game better and are still at a high percent of their prime athletically.

Isn't effectiveness/efficiency more important than raw athleticism? What's more important to winning than "effectiveness?"

[phxspurfan]

Isn't effectiveness/efficiency more important than raw athleticism? What's more important to winning than "effectiveness?"

Efficiency is good but momentum is gained/games are won by dunking on a bitch.

[R. DeMurre]

Efficiency is good but momentum is gained/games are won by dunking on a bitch.

:lol

[Spurtacular]

Isn't effectiveness/efficiency more important than raw athleticism? What's more important to winning than "effectiveness?"

It can be.

[Thread]

id take and pay a 32 year old Duncan, KD, Lebron, Kobe at 50% health over any 23-27 year old tbh

I can see Duncan & Kobe.

The other 2 are square pegs trying to jam into the round hole. Sure, you can cram it in there, but, it ain't right.

[Kawhitstorm]

LeBron was better in the playoffs during his early 30s than his early 20s. Same with snake although it's early 20s vs late 20s.:dramaquee

[midnightpulp]

tl;dr: When will front offices learn the true prime of a bball player is between 23-27 years old? They keep overpaying these fucks when they're 28-30, only to watch their production crater. The more people realize this, the better the NBA will be.


After quickly looking at KD's stats, I noticed that he clearly had his prime between 23 and 27:

https://i.ibb.co/pXjZ6PM/KD.png

And here's LeBron:

https://i.ibb.co/Brb1BDf/LBJ.png

TD:

https://i.ibb.co/QnZdLdz/TD.png

Kobe:

https://i.ibb.co/j4PPj9D/Kobe.png

CP0:

https://i.ibb.co/pKSNNcK/CP0.png

...and MJ (albeit you can't compare normal players to the GOAT):

https://i.ibb.co/G306Pyq/MJ.png


Key point being, if front offices paid and emphasized more the 23-27 range for players and less the 27-29 range, they would be getting more bang for their bucks and not paying players into their 30s, which is always a mistake. Take a note from the NFL. 30 is when you drop off, unless you're Brady and get help from the refs, deflate balls, tape defensive formations and such.

Once the ridiculous "Please let the NCAA still profit" one-and-done rule is removed in the next CBA negotiations, star players who are correctly identified in their late teens will be able to enter and thrive in the NBA at 18 again. There, they can enjoy a few years of development and earn the most while they play their best. There will be much less angst about production in their 30s, when everyone knows their bodies are slowing and breaking down.

FOs don't necessarily believe a player will be worth that at 30 and beyond, it's more to attract a high profile FA to sign with your team. Think of it like a corporation attracting executive talent with lavish severance packages. Example: When the Lakers resigned a post-Achilles Kobe for 48.5 over 2, it was to send the message to players that the Lakers will take care of their stars on the downside of their career, which will hopefully entice prime players to sign with them in the future. So an FA would think to himself, "Lakers will max me out at 23-27, but when I start declining, they'll still offer me a big contract as well."

[phxspurfan]

FOs don't necessarily believe a player will be worth that at 30 and beyond, it's more to attract a high profile FA to sign with your team. Think of it like a corporation attracting executive talent with lavish severance packages. Example: When the Lakers resigned a post-Achilles Kobe for 48.5 over 2, it was to send the message to players that the Lakers will take care of their stars on the downside of their career, which will hopefully entice prime players to sign with them in the future. So an FA would think to himself, "Lakers will max me out at 23-27, but when I start declining, they'll still offer me a big contract as well."

And the Lakers didn’t make the playoffs for like 7 years because of that.

[midnightpulp]

And the Lakers didn’t make the playoffs for like 7 years because of that.

His contract was only for 2 years as something of a retirement bonus. Lakers failed to make the playoffs or be competitive in the ensuing years because they are abysmal at player development. Kobe's contract didn't hamstring their budget. The contracts that do make little sense are the ones we gave Patty Mills. No idea the logic there.

[DMC]

But these are scoring primes. They aren't necessarily winning primes. Winning is all that matters.