Five Thirty Eight DRAYMONDs

[Drom John]

Another forced initialism, this one chosen to be DRAYMOND because Green rated as the best defender over the last five years.
DRAYMOND = Defense Rating Accounting for Yielding Minimal Openess by Nearest Defender.

While in order, 538 did not give ordinal #s.

2013-2014 to 2018-2019 minimum 10,000 possessions regular and playoffs

Top five + one, then Spurs in context (even if Spurs before 2013), then bottom five:

+3.16 Draymond Green
+2.95 Joel Embiid
+2.57 Kristaps Porzingis
+2.40 Rudy Gobert
+2.20 Tim Duncan [remember this is Tim with both wheels fallen off]
+2.06 Andre Roberson

+1.41 Al Horford
+1.40 David West
+1.39 Clint Capela
+1.38 Pau Gasol
+1.33 James Johnson
+1.28 Josh Richardson
+1.27 LaMarcus Aldridge
+1.25 Dewayne Dedmon
+1.25 Jaylen Brown

+1.14 John Henson
+1.12 Danny Green
+1.11 Kostas Koufos

+0.95 Thabo Sefolosha
+0.88 Kawhi Leonard [doesn't meet the eye test]
+0.88 Ian Mahimni
+0.88 Pascal Siakim

+0.71 Marc Gasol
+0.67 David Lee
+0.64 George Hill
+0.62 Langston Galloway

+0.59 Paul Pierce
+0.57 Corey Joseph
+0.57 Nikola Mirotic

+0.35 Jared Sullinger
+0.34 Trey Lyles
+0.33 Paul George [doesn't fit the eye test]

+0.30 Tyler Johnson
+0.29 DeMarre Carroll
+0.27 Stephen Curry

+0.19 LeBron James
+0.19 Rudy Gay
+0.18 JaMychal Green
+0.17 Patrick Beverly [doesn't fit the eye test]

+0.10 J.J. Reddick
+0.08 Anthony Tolliver
+0.08 Manu Ginobili
+0.08 Dwyane Wade

+0.06 Marvin Williams
+0.05 Kyle Anderson
+0.05 Jason Smith

+0.02 Kyle Lowry
+0.02 Marcus Morris
+0.01 Reggie Bullock

-0.03 Michael Carter-Williams
-0.04 Boris Diaw
-0.05 Jarrett Jack

-0.49 Shane Larkin
-0.51 Patty Mills
-0.52 Joe Johnson

-0.55 T.J. Warren
-0.55 Tony Parker
-0.56 Mario Hezonja

-0.84 Zach Randolph
-0.85 DeMar DeRozan
-0.85 Evan Fournier

-1.16 Brandon Jennings
-1.17 Dante Cunningham
-1.18 Anthony Morrow
-1.18 Marco Belinelli
-1.22 D.J. Augustin

-1.31 Ty Lawson
-1.36 Zach Levine
-1.49 Alec Burks
-1.54 Jose Calderon
-1.55 Rajon Rondo

[Drom John]

DRAYMOND for 2018-2019 with minimum of 2000 possessions regular and playoffs

Top Five, 2018-2019 & 2019-2020 Spurs, Bottom Five

+3.74 Derrick Favors
+3.32 Mitchell Robinson
+3.10 Derrick Jones, Jr.
+3.03 Jusuf Nurkic
+2.94 Maxi Kleber

+1.82 Montrezl Harrell
+1.82 LaMarcus Aldridge
+1.76 Draymond Green
+1.76 Nemanja Bjelica
+1.74 Derrick White
+1.72 Josh Hart

+0.70 Jerami Grant
+0.69 Rudy Gay
+0.69 Robert Covington

+0.65 Wendell Carter, Jr.
+0.64 Trey Lyles
+0.64 Jakob Poeltl
+0.64 Mike Muscala

+0.14 Andrew Wiggins
+0.12 Davis Bertans
+0.12 Rodney Hood

-0.32 Mike Scott
-0.33 Marcus Morris
-0.33 Terrance Ferguson

-0.53 Jamal Murray
-0.54 DeMarre Carroll
-0.54 Stanley Johnson
-0.55 Marco Belinelli
-0.56 Jonas Jerebko

-0.94 Jalen Brunson
-0.96 DeMar DeRozan
-0.96 Patty Mills
-0.96 Carl LeVert

-1.82 Reggie Jackson
-1.82 Bryn Forbes
-1.83 Trae Young

-2.49 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
-2.68 James Ennis III
-3.01 Tim Frazier
-3.25 Trevor Ariza
-3.59 Collin Sexton

[Drom John]

Change in CARMELO defensive ratings since 2013-14 after incorporating DRAYMOND*, for players with a minimum of 10,000 possessions
IOW, new ratings compared to old box score heavy ratings.

Top Five + one, Spurs even if before 2013, Bottom five

+0.78 Brook Lopez
+0.72 Timofey Mozgov
+0.71 Anthony Davis
+0.70 Kemba Walker
+0.66 Aron Baynes
+0.61 Draymond Green

+0.60 Jaylen Brown
+0.59 Dewayne Dedmon
+0.57 Klay Thompson

+0.44 Mike Conley
+0.43 LaMarcus Aldridge
+0.43 Rudy Gobert

+0.30 Bradley Beal
+0.30 Trey Lyles
+0.30 Miles Plumlee

+0.29 Mike Dunleavy
+0.28 Tim Duncan
+0.28 Ryan Anderson

+0.21 Austin Rivers
+0.21 Corey Joseph
+0.20 Terrence Ross

+0.15 Gerald Henderson
+0.15 George Hill
+0.15 Jason Smith

+0.12 Brandon Knight
+0.12 Danny Green
+0.12 Chris Bosh
+0.12 John Henson
+0.11 Rudy Gay
+0.11 Jordan Clarkson

+0.08 Kyle O'Quinn
+0.07 JaMychal Green
+0.07 Karl-Anthony Towns

+0.06 Darren Collison
+0.06 Marcus Morris
+0.06 Khris Middleton
+0.06 Brandom Ingram
+0.05 Pau Gasol
+0.05 Jared Sullinger
+0.05 DeMarre Carroll
+0.05 Danilo Gallinari

-0.01 Luol Deng
-0.01 Richard Jefferson
-0.01 J.J. Barea

-0.02 Zach Lavine
-0.03 Kawhi Leonard
-0.03 Courtney Lee

-0.06 Shelvin Mack
-0.06 Tony Parker
-0.06 Cody Zeller

-0.07 Marvin Williams
-0.07 Patty Mills
-0.07 Tyler Johnson

-0.07 Tobias Harris
-0.08 David West
-0.08 Amir Johnson

-0.10 Jameer Nelson
-0.10 Manu Ginobili
-0.10 Victor Oladipo
-0.10 Jayson Tatum
-0.10 David Lee
-0.10 Tyreke Evans

-0.23 Matt Barnes
-0.23 Ian Mahinmi
-0.24 DeAndre Jordan

-0.30 Joakim Noah
-0.31 Marco Belinelli
-0.31 Corey Brewer

-0.37 Nicolas Batum
-0.37 Boris Diaw
-0.37 Kyrie Irving
-0.39 DeMar DeRozan
-0.41 Norman Powell

-0.75 Trevor Ariza
-0.77 Kyle Anderson
-0.80 Dante Cunningham
-0.95 Rajon Rondo
-1.14 Russell Westbrook

[ZeusWillJudge]

Didn't 538 get something right once, way back there?

I loved their article about the best NBA teams of all time. They had the '08-'08 Cavs (who lost in the ECF to Orlando) as better than every Spurs team ever, except for '13-'14.

VERY informative stuff.

[Mr. Body]

Duncan was a fucking amazing defender even ancient and on one leg. How he never got a DPOY is criminal.

[MultiTroll]

Gaymonds #s are so skewed given all the hacks, illegal screens etc that fucktard is given by WarriorRef.
Let's hope it's was given by WarriorRef.

[Dr. John R. Brinkley]

Duncan was a fucking amazing defender even ancient and on one leg. How he never got a DPOY is criminal.

The greatest defensive player on some of the greatest defensive teams with one of the greatest defensive coaches of all time...and no DPOY. I agree. Proof the award is historically meaningless.

[RC_Drunkford]

People don't give LA enough credit for his defense. He's top 5 in contested shots at the rim and box outs as well. His defense is quite elite but people keep sayin he's not a Defender

[Kawhitstorm]

+0.71 Marc Gasol
+0.67 David Lee


:lmao

[apalisoc_9]

Draymond is a really dumb stat. Very dumb. And I am pro analytics.

[timvp]

After digging into the equation, I think DRAYMOND is pretty good. I like that it's a new way to try to measure defense. The more ways, the better, tbh, since there will never be a perfect way to measure it. I already like it better than DBPM because nothing can be worse than trying to pretend defense can be measured using steals and blocks. DRAYMOND reminds me of defensive WAR stats in baseball and that's a good thing.

The thing I don't like about it is that obviously there was some juggling with the equation to force Draymond Green to rise to the top of the heap. The most obvious one is not only counting the playoffs but also tilting it so that playoff defensive plays are worth significantly more. That was 100% done to get Green to the top spot.

(That kinda reminds me of PER. When Hollinger and company were first formulating PER, they were annoyed because David Robinson would always grade out as the best player of all-time. No matter what they did, Robinson was the best ever. To force Michael Jordan to the top spot, they had to bolster BS stats like missed field goal attempts. Only then was Robinson dethroned :lol)

[diego]

So Draymond measures how closely a defender contests... But does it take into account when teams are forcing a certain player to beat them? Seems like nowadays defense is all about picking who shoots, not actually forcing difficult shots..

[ZeusWillJudge]

After digging into the equation, I think DRAYMOND is pretty good. I like that it's a new way to try to measure defense. The more ways, the better, tbh, since there will never be a perfect way to measure it. I already like it better than DBPM because nothing can be worse than trying to pretend defense can be measured using steals and blocks. DRAYMOND reminds me of defensive WAR stats in baseball and that's a good thing.

The thing I don't like about it is that obviously there was some juggling with the equation to force Draymond Green to rise to the top of the heap. The most obvious one is not only counting the playoffs but also tilting it so that playoff defensive plays are worth significantly more. That was 100% done to get Green to the top spot.

(That kinda reminds me of PER. When Hollinger and company were first formulating PER, they were annoyed because David Robinson would always grade out as the best player of all-time. No matter what they did, Robinson was the best ever. To force Michael Jordan to the top spot, they had to bolster BS stats like missed field goal attempts. Only then was Robinson dethroned :lol)


538 is notorious for retro-fitting to get the outcome they think meets their expectations. I'm not sure this was because they love Draymond, but because they're already convinced he's the best.

The ONLY valid reason for this kind of analysis is to predict - to figure out which players are worth going after, and finding under-paid diamonds in the rough. Everything else is just pandering to fans. You can never PROVE comparisons of players between eras. Never.

One thing I can almost guarantee: come back in 10-12 years and apply most all of 538's methodologies at that point in time, and the results will look so different that they will be scrambling to make "adjustments". Duncan and Draymond may look the same in relation to each other, of course, but there will be a bunch of weird outliers that they have to deal with. And those adjustments will change the Duncan/Dray relationship. But by then Draymond will be gone, and recency bias will let them favor other current players.

[Spurtacular]

Draymond Green wouldn't even be Rick Mahorn back in the day.

[lmbebo]

After digging into the equation, I think DRAYMOND is pretty good. I like that it's a new way to try to measure defense. The more ways, the better, tbh, since there will never be a perfect way to measure it. I already like it better than DBPM because nothing can be worse than trying to pretend defense can be measured using steals and blocks. DRAYMOND reminds me of defensive WAR stats in baseball and that's a good thing.

The thing I don't like about it is that obviously there was some juggling with the equation to force Draymond Green to rise to the top of the heap. The most obvious one is not only counting the playoffs but also tilting it so that playoff defensive plays are worth significantly more. That was 100% done to get Green to the top spot.

(That kinda reminds me of PER. When Hollinger and company were first formulating PER, they were annoyed because David Robinson would always grade out as the best player of all-time. No matter what they did, Robinson was the best ever. To force Michael Jordan to the top spot, they had to bolster BS stats like missed field goal attempts. Only then was Robinson dethroned :lol)

stats don't lie :rolleyes