Hurricane Dorian

[RD2191]

Prayers up for the US Virgin Islands. Tough break for Timmy and his home.

[benefactor]

I hope that dumb island spook asswiper2k5 is standing out on the beach tbh

[baseline bum]

I hope that dumb island spook asswiper2k5 is standing out on the beach tbh

He's probably jerking off in the trailer off Austin Highway tbh.

[RD2191]

He's probably jerking off in the trailer off Austin Highway tbh.

:lol

[BD24]

I hope that dumb island spook asswiper2k5 is standing out on the beach tbh
:lol

[Robz4000]

I hope that dumb island spook asswiper2k5 is standing out on the beach tbh


He's probably jerking off in the trailer off Austin Highway tbh.

:lol

Real talk though, they went from saying this thing wouldn't develop to now saying it'll be a major hurricane at landfall in the US. Grim business.

[Millennial_Messiah]

:lol

Real talk though, they went from saying this thing wouldn't develop to now saying it'll be a major hurricane at landfall in the US. Grim business.

Miami to Jacksonville under the gun:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL052019_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/174436_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png


Right now they're saying Category 3, but we all know how it's going to play out... shear conditions are VERY favorable west of 70ºW... we're likely to see a cat 4 hit or worse. MIA-JAX is the cone and current center of track would rough up Orlando/Daytona quite a bit.

[Millennial_Messiah]

00z HWRF has a high end cat 4/weak cat 5 bearing down in a few days:

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a36a7ff2246fa925afb0bea07d6cb6fe721897fc80412eea7b 0dee737dd97d96.png

[DJR210]

We can only hope for the worst for said asswiper

[Millennial_Messiah]

Now forecast to be a Category 4 hit and the cone keeps moving south. :lol

[DeadlyDynasty]

Too bad Haiti will be spared

[Millennial_Messiah]

Too bad Haiti will be spared

even a medial TS that hits Haiti usually kills around 2,000 because of the extreme deforestation there leads to landslides and major flooding

[Reck]

1166685686105329664

https://i.makeagif.com/media/6-01-2015/8MtfTg.gif

1167145246280441857

:lmao Stupid fuck.

[FrostKing]

Moved the FSU-Boise game scheduled for Jacksonville on Saturday night to Tallahassee

[Millennial_Messiah]

:lmao Stupid fuck.
The funny thing about US GOP Evangelical christians is, my theory has always been if there were a god, he would be a staunch Democrat.

Jesus was quite the socialist... and Bill Clinton and Obama combined for all of 2 major hurricane strikes on the US, while Bush Jr and Trump have combined for 16 and counting.

Hell, zero major hurricanes struck the US during Obama's entire 8 year regime. First year he's out? 3 of 'em in one season. Couldn't make it up if I tried.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Upgraded to Category 2 with 105 mph winds as of the 11pm advisory from the NHC.

[baseline bum]

Hell, zero major hurricanes struck the US during Obama's entire 8 year regime. First year he's out? 3 of 'em in one season. Couldn't make it up if I tried.

You just did. I'd say Sandy was a pretty major hurricane.

[Millennial_Messiah]

You just did. I'd say Sandy was a pretty major hurricane.

Sandy was bad only because of the location (Jersey Shore dagowops were unprepared), but technically it was a borderline Cat 1/Cat 2 strike. The most it had been in its lifetime was Cat 3 in the Caribbean (the threshold for "major" hurricane as defined by the NHC), but that was well over a week before it struck the Jersey Shore.

[baseline bum]

Sandy was bad only because of the location (Jersey Shore dagowops were unprepared), but technically it was a borderline Cat 1/Cat 2 strike. The most it had been in its lifetime was Cat 3 in the Caribbean (the threshold for "major" hurricane as defined by the NHC), but that was well over a week before it struck the Jersey Shore.

So it's minor because only wind speed matters?

[Millennial_Messiah]

So it's minor because only wind speed matters?

I'm going by meteorological technicality, not any other convoluted means.

According to the Saffir-Simpson scale, used by the World Meteorological Organization and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA; which includes the National Hurricane Center) the storm is a major hurricane with maximum sustained winds (>= 115 MPH) or minimal Category 3 status.

Going by after-effects of a landfall, such as costs of destruction, bad timing, human casualties etc provides too many confounding variables. But the 2004 or 2005 hurricane season wipes the floor with Sandy, which was not all that strong but just hit a weakly built area that is not used to hurricanes (for example, coastal homes built from Texas to Florida to North Carolina are generally built to withstand up to a cat 3, but that is not the case in New Jersey).

If you want to add confounders, how about the weak tropical storm in 2007 that stayed a TS all the way up to San Antonio and caused major flooding and even destroyed an entire school (South San West Campus)? And went all the way up to Oklahoma and wreaked havoc there. And the TS Fay in 2008 that caused major flooding in 6 different parts of Florida. If you want to add category 2 hurricanes to the mix, there were plenty of those to add to Bush's total, like Ike and Gustav his last year.

Bottom line: Obama had it easy, relatively speaking. Clinton, too.

[phxspurfan]

Sandy was bad only because of the location (Jersey Shore dagowops were unprepared), but technically it was a borderline Cat 1/Cat 2 strike. The most it had been in its lifetime was Cat 3 in the Caribbean (the threshold for "major" hurricane as defined by the NHC), but that was well over a week before it struck the Jersey Shore.

Sandy was bad bc of the flooding, not the wind speed. Old New England colonial towns and houses that weren't prepared like Florida were ravaged by the flood damage.

[Robz4000]

Now they're predicting Dorian to have 150 mph winds at landfall. This is gonna be Cat 5, isn't it?

[Pavlov]

Now they're predicting Dorian to have 150 mph winds at landfall. This is gonna be Cat 5, isn't it?That's close.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Sandy was bad bc of the flooding, not the wind speed. Old New England colonial towns and houses that weren't prepared like Florida were ravaged by the flood damage.

Exactly right. These houses were built before hurricane codes existed, and people didn't really care to fix that when they did exist beginning in the 1950s because nobody really feared any kind of a hurricane hit that far north.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Now they're predicting Dorian to have 150 mph winds at landfall. This is gonna be Cat 5, isn't it?

Almost definitely. This is East Coast of Florida's Katrina. Huge population areas, there will be flooding from Ft Lauderdale to Jacksonville. Worst will be Palm Beach area, Jupiter etc up to Melbourne and Daytona.

I would say likely category 4 landfall. The storm will briefly be a cat 5 with 160+ mph winds and then weaken to cat 4 during an eyewall replacement cycle before landfall. But that will make the hurricane larger and the wind fields worse. Hence why "weakened" Cat 3 Katrina landfall was quite worse than Cat 5 Katrina from the day before. And part of why Sandy was so devastating despite the low category.

[spurraider21]

SpursforSix can you break this all down for us?

[GAustex]

Many computer models show Dorian grinding up the east coast of Florida or up the middle of the state
I hope it turns north short of landfall

[RD2191]

Cat 4. :wakeup

[Robz4000]

Already a Cat 4 with several days to spend over warm open water.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Officially strengthened to a very weak category 4.

[phxspurfan]

******** OFFICIAL FORECAST **********

Hurricane Doreen blowing its load in the open Atlantic. Forecasted to be a Serious situation for them fishes, and that hotel in the Bahamas with dat water slide. Bahama Mamas ordered to stay the fuck off of the beach and go make me a Conch sandwich

[GAustex]

Weather channel beginning to crawfish their gloom and doom forecast.
I hope Phxspurfan is right

[leemajors]

SpursforSix can you break this all down for us?

Please do SpursforSix

[baseline bum]

Please do SpursforSix

Sick man, he's got a wife.

[leemajors]

:lol

[Millennial_Messiah]

:lol if this stays offshore and recurves out to sea

[RD2191]

:lol what a bust

[DMC]

News Media is hoping for a cat 5. They keep getting excited about it, trying to sell it as a cat 5 potential and hoping like hell it does some major damage to give them something after the Mueller debacle.

[SpursforSix]

SpursforSix (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=49684) can you break this all down for us?

Sorry...I’ve been so busy correcting Andy that I didn’t realize I let this slide.
It’s been obvious for about a week that Dorian was going to be a Cat 4 hurricane. Foolish to think otherwise with the conditions and obvious path avoiding much island land. Pretty boring storm to this expert. So far it’s been a perfect overlay on my spaghetti map.

[Ellsworth]

Miss Florida was excited by the news this morning... :eyebrows

[Thread]

News Media is hoping for a cat 5. They keep getting excited about it, trying to sell it as a cat 5 potential and hoping like hell it does some major damage to give them something after the Mueller debacle.

Tell it, D. You gd right to tell. Hell, boy...testify!!!

[Millennial_Messiah]

Looks like the U.S. and Trump got spared this year.

[Pelicans78]

Category 5

[Mark Celibate]

look for heavy rains and wind in this one imo

[Pelicans78]

Now 180 mph. Moving very slowly.

[GAustex]

Excellent website is “Tropical Tidbits”
Check it out
Levi Cowan is excellent

[Millennial_Messiah]

185 MPH Category 5, no landfall predicted so could be the strongest storm to not get retired.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Excellent website is “Tropical Tidbits”
Check it out
Levi Cowan is excellent

Yes. Levi used to post on Wunderground blog before it became ultra liberal with the climate change agenda crap.

[pgardn]

Yes. Levi used to post on Wunderground blog before it became ultra liberal with the climate change agenda crap.

So the avg temp of the Earth has not changed...

You need to revisit your algebra screw ups.

[GAustex]

Yes. Levi used to post on Wunderground blog before it became ultra liberal with the climate change agenda crap.
Cowan’s YouTube videos are the best analysis I have seen.
Puts the larger websites and weather channel to shame

[SpursforSix]

look for heavy rains and wind in this one imo

I can confirm. This jibes with all my models.

[baseline bum]

look for heavy rains and wind in this one imo

Probably will be some storm surge too. If you don't quantize the eigenspace of the individual wavefunctions too loosely you'll see that emerge in the models. Just hoping there is only minimal tunneling through the seawalls.

[Millennial_Messiah]

So the avg temp of the Earth has not changed...

You need to revisit your algebra screw ups.

There are both warm and cold anomalies. Look at the SST anomaly maps. Antarctic area has been consistently below average while Arctic has, for the most part, been consistently above.

[SnakeBoy]

Prayers up for the US Virgin Islands. Tough break for Timmy and his home.

^ does not know where the US Virgin Islands are

[Millennial_Messiah]

^ does not know where the US Virgin Islands are

Yeah, pretty hard to mistake the USVI from the Bahamas. Bahamas gets notoriety for being a resort vacation spot, but the reality is it's mostly a drug trade-infested ghetto full of worthless uneducated poor blacks who are overtly religious simpletons and struggle to read and write and speak understandable English. Pretty worthless place overall.

All those videos of "please pray for us, waaaaah"... more like, hope you get the Darwin award for stupidity for staying in the direct path of a Category 5 hurricane. Morons. Religion should be wiped off the earth.

[GAustex]

Levi’s latest assessment-fascinating
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=E4BAXqEcGYk

Sorry do not know how to embed

[RD2191]

^ does not know where the US Virgin Islands are

I made this thread before the storm hit the US Virgin Islands, smartass.

[pgardn]

There are both warm and cold anomalies. Look at the SST anomaly maps. Antarctic area has been consistently below average while Arctic has, for the most part, been consistently above.

So the AVERAGE temp has not changed?

Those are NOT anamolies. This is what you might expect, even if the earth was getting colder.

[phxspurfan]

Shits looking pretty bad yo. RIP Flo-Rida

[phxspurfan]

1168306473580937217 Jeff saying it will get close to shore at Daytona Beach with extreme storm surge

[SnakeBoy]

I made this thread before the storm hit the US Virgin Islands, smartass.

Ah didn't notice the date. Well they survived the weak Cat 1 just fine so your prayers worked.

[pgardn]

SF6

What is your favorite part of hunkering down?

[Darth_Pelican]

Have any videos surfaced of the storm hitting the Bahamas?

[Millennial_Messiah]

1168306473580937217 Jeff saying it will get close to shore at Daytona Beach with extreme storm surge

Is he going to be towing his blue shed along for the ride?

[Millennial_Messiah]

Have any videos surfaced of the storm hitting the Bahamas?

Yes. I saw about 3 of them featuring black ladies who could barely speak English walking around their houses which were about a foot deep in surge water and the roofs half wrecked. One of them had a big family and a man holding a baby. Another screamed "please pray for us". Another was in a bathroom with her family doing some melodramatic "Father God yada yada" prayer instead of having been smart enough to evacuate. As if the sky guy from the Abrahamic mythology book is going to save them :lmao simpletons.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Shits looking pretty bad yo. RIP Flo-Rida

NHC official cone still has no US landfall.

[Pavlov]

Yes. I saw about 3 of them featuring black ladies who could barely speak English walking around their houses which were about a foot deep in surge water and the roofs half wrecked. One of them had a big family and a man holding a baby. Another screamed "please pray for us". Another was in a bathroom with her family doing some melodramatic "Father God yada yada" prayer instead of having been smart enough to evacuate. As if the sky guy from the Abrahamic mythology book is going to save them :lmao simpletons.Aren't you married to a Christian black island woman?

[benefactor]

RIP Bahamas...you had a good run

[baseline bum]

RIP Bahamas...you had a good run

Fuck man, Cat 5 moving at 1 mph for hours over the northern Bahamas

[Trill Clinton]

Prayers up for the Bahamas. Shit is crazy

[GAustex]

Check is out
https://m.facebook.com/groups/1455960181305551?view=permalink&id=2469491529952406&refsrc=http%3A%2F%2Ft.co%2FIXfpvCGtE9&_rdr

RIP Bahamas

[Millennial_Messiah]

Aren't you married to a Christian black island woman?

&, can't get out soon enough.

[DeadlyDynasty]

Freeport had the best cracked conch...you will be missed.

[Mark Celibate]

Yes. I saw about 3 of them featuring black ladies who could barely speak English walking around their houses which were about a foot deep in surge water and the roofs half wrecked. One of them had a big family and a man holding a baby. Another screamed "please pray for us". Another was in a bathroom with her family doing some melodramatic "Father God yada yada" prayer instead of having been smart enough to evacuate. As if the sky guy from the Abrahamic mythology book is going to save them :lmao simpletons.

you are a special kind of retarded...where the hell are low income islanders supposed to evacuate to?

[Millennial_Messiah]

you are a special kind of retarded...where the hell are low income islanders supposed to evacuate to?

Different island? Different part of that long island? Get a ferry, sell something to get the ferry, idk/idc

[Spurminator]

Different island? Different part of that long island? Get a ferry, sell something to get the ferry, idk/idc

Have you met ducks? You guys would get along.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Have you met ducks? You guys would get along.

Don't think so. His English seems pretty shitty.

[phxspurfan]

Check is out
https://m.facebook.com/groups/1455960181305551?view=permalink&id=2469491529952406&refsrc=http%3A%2F%2Ft.co%2FIXfpvCGtE9&_rdr

RIP Bahamas

Guy sounds like a rich douchebag who moved to the island because he's a retired CEO or some shit

[GAustex]

Guy sounds like a rich douchebag who moved to the island because he's a retired CEO or some shit
Maybe so
If I was rich it would not be Bahamas
The link was more for wind and surge which was/is devastating.

[SpursWoman]

Poor Bahamas .. that's freaking awful. We are booked to go to there in December. :(

[Millennial_Messiah]

Poor Bahamas .. that's freaking awful. We are booked to go to there in December. :(

Which island though? Dorian spared all but 2 of the islands. For example, Nassau didn't even get rain... small storm.

[phxspurfan]

Maybe so
If I was rich it would not be Bahamas
The link was more for wind and surge which was/is devastating.

Same, if I was rich it would be Mediterranean like Cyprus. Or Hawaii, etc

[Millennial_Messiah]

Same, if I was rich it would be Mediterranean like Cyprus. Or Hawaii, etc

If I was rich it would be somewhere like Vancouver or Seattle, Denver, etc somewhere it isn't hot and sticky all night half the year... but still minimal snow/ice.

[GAustex]

Dodged a bullet in Daytona
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=_K5L-ezGq4Y

[GAustex]

Dodged a bullet in Daytona
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=_K5L-ezGq4Y
Hopefully

[SpursWoman]

Freeport, Nassau & Half Moon Cay ... I did hear that Nassau & Half Moon Cay were fine, but the footage of Freeport is awful.

[SnakeBoy]

https://www.facebook.com/groups/bahamanews/permalink/2469665786601647/

Dude in the last vid is fucked.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Freeport, Nassau & Half Moon Cay ... I did hear that Nassau & Half Moon Cay were fine, but the footage of Freeport is awful.

I guess 2 out of 3 ain't bad.

[SnakeBoy]

Trump says the Bahama's are so much nicer than Puerto Rico, insists on Bounty brand paper towels for his visit...reports say

[pgardn]

Trump says the Bahama's are so much nicer than Puerto Rico, insists on Bounty brand paper towels for his visit...reports say

Needs to check out how many golf courses were ruined.

[spurraider21]

apparently the moron has been yammering on about dorian hitting alabama? :lmao

1168664116095082496

[Pavlov]

:lol certain scenarios

[Millennial_Messiah]

apparently the moron has been yammering on about dorian hitting alabama? :lmao


It was a possibility about 4-5 days ago that it would go into the Gulf like a Katrina or Andrew track. Obviously this is a trough year and not a ridge year, so that didn't pan out.

[Reck]

The Bahamas got fucked up so bad.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rv08_dzb_Xw

Basically looks like Syria out there.

[DJR210]

Crazy.. this appears worse than what Haiti got. Can't imagine getting hit by that with a family of small children. Hell on earth.

[GAustex]

Close call in Daytona Beach. Heavy wind and rain last night and most of today.
Florida spared is a good thing.
News broadcasts here say the coast guard is already in The Bahamas.

[phxspurfan]

literally a fish storm now

[Millennial_Messiah]

literally a fish storm now

Yep. Definite bust. Not even a CONUS landfall. Guess we'll have to wait to get that hurricane fix this year.

[SnakeBoy]

The looting has begun, whitey needs help


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HUMDiJR-jKk

[Millennial_Messiah]

The looting has begun, whitey needs help


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HUMDiJR-jKk

Don't get why these old rich white people choose to move to places like the Bahamas and Jamaica when they know they're literally going to be surrounded by blacks and thus an easy target for rampant crime in the event of such disasters.

[Mark Celibate]

The looting has begun, whitey needs help


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HUMDiJR-jKk

ya...I went through Harvey and the looting was definitely a pain in the ass. Not trying to get political here, but having a firearm when it was essentially Martial Law saved my ass on two occasions. not much the defense force, police, etc can do when flooding is that rampant and they can't get to you

[Mark Celibate]

Yep. Definite bust. Not even a CONUS landfall. Guess we'll have to wait to get that hurricane fix this year.

?

tbh, I would think a Category 5 stalling over a third world country would be enough for you disaster fetishists to get your rocks off. Just wait, the death toll is assured to still climb so you and the MannyisGod stormchasing crowd can circlejerk over the destruction in due time. last i heard the storm's almost up to a Cat 3 and projected to still have a Carolinas landfall, so you've also got that to look forward too imho

[Millennial_Messiah]

?

tbh, I would think a Category 5 stalling over a third world country would be enough for you disaster fetishists to get your rocks off. Just wait, the death toll is assured to still climb so you and the MannyisGod stormchasing crowd can circlejerk over the destruction in due time. last i heard the storm's almost up to a Cat 3 and projected to still have a Carolinas landfall, so you've also got that to look forward too imho
I'll believe the Cat 3 Carolinas landfall when I see it. It's a 115 mph cat 3 but the wind shear is increasing, and the current forecast track has it staying just offshore.

[phxspurfan]

I'll believe the Cat 3 Carolinas landfall when I see it

Not sure if the barrier islands count -- European model sez Fri AM

https://i.ibb.co/h7vVfSB/Dorian.png

[Millennial_Messiah]

Not sure if the barrier islands count -- European model sez Fri AM

https://i.ibb.co/h7vVfSB/Dorian.png

But now it's back down to Cat 2, so barring unforeseen strength increase, we'll still be at 0 major hurricane CONUS landfalls for 2019.

[baseline bum]

How the hell did this thing get back up to Cat 2 once it got to Canada?

https://i.ibb.co/mCSP89b/thefck.png

[DJR210]

The storm is strengthening again, back at cat 2 storm 100 MPH winds. Next stop, Canada. Kawhi Karma.

[Mark Celibate]

Greenland you're next!

[DJR210]

Send in the nukes, we must protect Greenland!

[DJR210]

Poor Alabama people that evacuated :lol

[Millennial_Messiah]

Fish storm. No CONUS landfall, nothing to see

[phxspurfan]

How the hell did this thing get back up to Cat 2 once it got to Canada?

https://www.seatemperature.org/