Drone strikes knock out half of Saudi oil capacity, 5 million barrels a day

[SnakeBoy]

Israel is worried about the targeting of Saudi Arabia by Iran and its allies
https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20191001-israel-is-worried-about-the-targeting-of-saudi-arabia-by-iran-and-its-allies/


In the meantime, security sources in Israel have confirmed that the recent attacks in Saudi Arabia were a test for the US, not least President Donald Trump’s foreign policy. His “lacklustre” response is his way of saying that the attack in Saudi Arabia did not affect US interests directly, as his tweets suggested clearly; it was a Saudi affair, not American. If Iran attacks Israel, the worry in Tel Aviv is that Trump will say that it is an Israeli affair, nothing to do with America.


Finally, it is true that Israel has maintained an official silence over the Iranian attack on Saudi Arabia, but in security, military and diplomatic forums it has expressed its desire for it to be a catalyst for greater cooperation and coordination between Riyadh and Tel Aviv.

[RandomGuy]

Fascinating tactical discussion on modern tank warfare in the Middle east.

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/russia-keeps-losing-its-t-90-tanks-syria-one-reason-77961

[SnakeBoy]

Retreat from Qatar suggests US is preparing for war
https://www.arabnews.com/node/1563066


The Americans’ experimental transfer of their air command and control operations from Qatar is likely to suggest that, contrary to rumors, Washington is preparing for the prospect of war. Against this backdrop, the US feels it is critical to fine-tune its air operations out of Al-Udeid, which it fears could be the first target in the event of conflict between the US and Iran. It matters little what the Iranian propaganda keeps claiming, which is that Iran is capable of destroying US power in the Gulf, since the truth is just the opposite.

[SnakeBoy]

Then you will have to deal with a nuclear state capable of disrupting your energy supplies, where you have no negative leverage to inflict pain because you have already put in place the most effective sanctions you can.

The agreement halted their progress. No deal means they are free to pursue nuclear weapons as fast as they are able to.

All the while, you will have China undermining those sanctions and eroding their effectiveness, as they have been already doing.

The agreement was the least bad option.


SnakeBoy showing his neocon and sociopathic nature. SnakeBoy being a sperm shielder apologizing for daddy Trump in scrapping the Iran nuclear deal :lmao

:lol That's a quote from Chuck Schumer on why he opposed the Iran deal

[SnakeBoy]

1179451596863934464

[SnakeBoy]

Fascinating tactical discussion on modern tank warfare in the Middle east.

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/russia-keeps-losing-its-t-90-tanks-syria-one-reason-77961

You might find this one interesting
https://www.meforum.org/441/why-arabs-lose-wars

I also read an interesting article which proves you right about Iran kicking Saudi's ass in an actual war. Unfortunately I can't find the link again. Basically it said Saudi has an superior and effective air Force and on paper they have more powerful, though smaller, army but their army is fully incompetent by design. The Air Force is easily controlled by only using personnel loyal to the regime but they fear a larger and/or effective army will overthrow them.

[RandomGuy]

Retreat from Qatar suggests US is preparing for war
https://www.arabnews.com/node/1563066

Saw that. Probably a good move to reduce vulnerability in case it escalates.

My guess, based on this is that some response to the attack is in the offing. I have been surprised that nothing has happened yet, but I am guessing it will be carefully prepared, so that may take a while to get all the pieces in place.

Hopefully it will be Saudi assets that do it, as opposed to US ones.

I would guess the timing of the strikes will be carefully coordinated to distract from an important impeachment proceeding.

[RandomGuy]

Then you will have to deal with a nuclear state capable of disrupting your energy supplies, where you have no negative leverage to inflict pain because you have already put in place the most effective sanctions you can.

The agreement halted their progress. No deal means they are free to pursue nuclear weapons as fast as they are able to.

All the while, you will have China undermining those sanctions and eroding their effectiveness, as they have been already doing.

The agreement was the least bad option.



:lol That's a quote from Chuck Schumer on why he opposed the Iran deal

No, those were my own words, outlining what I see as the failure of "scrap the deal and do more sanctions" approach you were advocating.

[RandomGuy]

You might find this one interesting
https://www.meforum.org/441/why-arabs-lose-wars

I also read an interesting article which proves you right about Iran kicking Saudi's ass in an actual war. Unfortunately I can't find the link again. Basically it said Saudi has an superior and effective air Force and on paper they have more powerful, though smaller, army but their army is fully incompetent by design. The Air Force is easily controlled by only using personnel loyal to the regime but they fear a larger and/or effective army will overthrow them.

I would not argue with that.

[SnakeBoy]

No, those were my own words, outlining what I see as the failure of "scrap the deal and do more sanctions" approach you were advocating.

It wasn't me advocating anything, those were Chuck Schumer's words

[RandomGuy]

What is the proposed Republican alternative deal? Be specific and as detailed as you can.


[unattributed short two paragraphs from a Democrat]


[offers his criticism of short passage]


It wasn't me advocating anything, those were Chuck Schumer's words

You sure showed me... how dishonest you can be.

So there is no Republican alternative.

My general working theory of modern conservatism is that conservatives are morally and intellectually bankrupt.

Here you both lied by omission(morally bankrupt) and failed to offer a true Republican alternative to the Obama Nuclear Deal (intellectually bankrupt).

Thank you for helping to make my case for me.

[SnakeBoy]

You sure showed me... how dishonest you can be.


I wasn't trying to trick you


Therefore, I will vote to disapprove the agreement,

Did you really think I was making the case of why I would vote against the Iran deal? :lol

[TheGreatYacht]

:lol That's a quote from Chuck Schumer on why he opposed the Iran deal

Chuck Schumer is a Zionist Jew of course he opposes the Iran nuclear deal them motherfuckers don't want world peace :lol

[TheGreatYacht]

1179451596863934464

Damn Zionists are trying their asses off to manufacture consent to go to war with Iran....

[SnakeBoy]

Damn Zionists are trying their asses off to manufacture consent to go to war with Iran....

Don't know who the zionists are but it appears the pieces are being put into place. Just need that pesky Trump to either get in line or get out of the way.

[TheGreatYacht]

Don't know who the zionists are but it appears the pieces are being put into place. Just need that pesky Trump to either get in line or get out of the way.

He would piss off his alt-right anti-Zionist base. Hope he remains cautious and not let the neocons and Zionists push him into a war w Iran.

[RandomGuy]

I wasn't trying to trick you

Did you really think I was making the case of why I would vote against the Iran deal? :lol

So, you weren't tying to trick me, just merely too lazy to attribute the quote from a Democrat when asked for the Republican alternative?

I stand corrected.

I merely assumed you approved of the statement, as you offered no commentary otherwise.

Each post you make is a choice. Choose to eschew meaningful conversation for gotcha smileys, choose to not answer good faith questions clearly or honestly.

All your choices here.

[SnakeBoy]

Protests in Iraq are going nationwide in what looks like a new ‘Arab Spring’ moment
https://taskandpurpose.com/iraq-protest-mahdi-arab-spring?rebelltitem=4#rebelltitem4

[SnakeBoy]

Shit getting real

1179455457548800001
1179130399793876992
1179087703247220737
1179394961558650881

Saudi sunni says the world (ahem USA) must protect them. Trump doesn't. Iraq sunni suddenly rebel demanding freedom and human rights. Iran backed govt starts the slaughter.

Iran war all teed up.

Doesn't seem suspicious at all right?

[SnakeBoy]

1179579248627130370
1179322298861531136

[TheGreatYacht]

Let the Saudis and Iraqis handle their own problems.

[TheGreatYacht]

Suspicious Protests Break Out Just As Iraq Demands US Leave & Calls Out Israel For Illegal Bombings

https://youtu.be/QQwhMZRpsCU

[koriwhat]

Let the Saudis and Iraqis handle their own problems.

i totally agree. :tu

[SnakeBoy]

Busy news day so the new deployments to Saudi didn't get much press coverage.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/30363/its-not-what-the-u-s-is-deploying-to-saudi-arabia-its-the-structure-of-the-deployment

[Winehole23]

Busy news day so the new deployments to Saudi didn't get much press coverage.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/30363/its-not-what-the-u-s-is-deploying-to-saudi-arabia-its-the-structure-of-the-deploymentTrump claims the KSA will pay for US defense.

Do you recall how we were repaid last time we defended the KSA?

Never forget.

[Winehole23]

Let the Saudis and Iraqis handle their own problems.Let the KSA be defended against Iran, by the USA.

[TheGreatYacht]

The US, Israeli & Saudi Governments Have Manufactured A Revolution In Iraq

https://youtu.be/2suled0UWXA

Never forget. America, Israel and Saudi Arabia are the real axis of evil.

[Winehole23]

Exclusive: Saudi Aramco lures sovereign funds to hit $2 trillion IPO valuation - sources
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-saudi-aramco-ipo-investment-exclusive/exclusive-saudi-aramco-lures-sovereign-funds-to-hit-2-trillion-ipo-valuation-sources-idUKKBN1WB1GD?il=0



Might possibly qualify as a reason to lie about productioncool story about the IPO in Bloomberg today:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-11/the-wall-street-bankers-who-burst-aramco-s-2-trillion-bubble

[SnakeBoy]

cool story about the IPO in Bloomberg today:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-11/the-wall-street-bankers-who-burst-aramco-s-2-trillion-bubble


“Those who have not subscribed in Aramco will be chewing their thumb to the point that I will be worried about them that they go and fix themselves in the hospital,” the oil minister said later in an interview.

He might be right. Oil looking pretty bullish for 2020 with financial industry demanding shale producers actually make money now instead of racking up more debt. US Oil rig count is down to 663 from 877 a year ago. I think the EIA is way overestimating US production in 2020.

[RandomGuy]

cool story about the IPO in Bloomberg today:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-11/the-wall-street-bankers-who-burst-aramco-s-2-trillion-bubble


“Saudi Arabia has always had this problem: top-down decision making,” said Karen Young, a Middle East specialist at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington and a specialist in the political economy of the Middle East. “There’s a culture of fear. Savvy and able technocrats don’t feel comfortable speaking up.”​

There is a reason autocratic leadership styles are an organizational risk, and one I look for in my audits. "yes men" = bad decisions

Sound familiar?

[TheGreatYacht]

US Defense Secretary Shamelessly Covers For Saudí Terrórists

https://youtu.be/eN2ZFOwnAp4

[Winehole23]

US Defense Secretary Shamelessly Covers For Saudí Terrórists

https://youtu.be/eN2ZFOwnAp4In good conscience I won't click any Youtube link you provide without knowing something about it beforehand, who is that?

[Winehole23]

Price war, pandemic and outsized dividends have Saudi Aramco underwater:


As a direct result of MbS deciding to go ahead with yet another oil price war at the same time as the COVID-19 pandemic was gathering pace and destroying demand for oil, Aramco’s finances have suffered a massive hit. For the first half of this year, the company saw a 50 percent plunge in net profit and at the beginning of this month, it reported another massive drop in profits of 44.6 percent for the third quarter, falling to SAR44.21 billion (US$11.79 billion) from SAR79.84 billion in the same period last year. On the other side of the balance sheet, though, is the stark fact that because the company’s IPO was so toxic on so many levels (https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Forget-The-Hype-Aramco-Shares-May-be-Valued-At-Zero-Next-Year.htmlhttps:/oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Forget-The-Hype-Aramco-Shares-May-be-Valued-At-Zero-Next-Year.html) that it was shunned by Western investors and had to be off-loaded to buyers who were either bullied or bribed into buying the stock (https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/How-To-Short-The-Worlds-Largest-Oil-Company.html) Aramco is left having to pay massive guaranteed dividend payments for the foreseeable future to those shareholders. https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Saudi-Aramcos-Landmark-IPO-Is-Costing-The-Kingdom-Billions.html

[RandomGuy]

Price war, pandemic and outsized dividends have Saudi Aramco underwater:

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Saudi-Aramcos-Landmark-IPO-Is-Costing-The-Kingdom-Billions.html

https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/ARAMCO:AB
Trading at about 35, below the IPO


Whatever the cuts, it remains the case that the first two dividends together for the first two quarters of this year – US$37.5 billion – far outstripped Aramco’s total free cash flow of US$21.1 billion for the same period. The latest profits number for the third quarter, meanwhile, covers just 62.88 percent of the dividend payment, never mind any other expenses or investment for projects ongoing or planned that Aramco may have had in mind. To put this even more clearly: Aramco’s entire profit for the third quarter cannot even cover the dividend it owes for the same quarter, not even two-thirds of it!



Moreover, judging from last week’s bond sale by Aramco, it appears that even those investors who have been willing to buy the company’s paper - so increasing their risk exposure to not just to the omni-toxic Aramco but also to Saudi as a sovereign issuer - might be reaching the limit of their appetite for either. Saudi had been looking to raise US$8 billion from the five-part bond deal, which it did, but crucially it attracted just US$48.1 billion in orders for the debt sale, less than half of the amount that it received for its debut bond sale last year when it raised US$12 billion. Even more indicative of increasing investor caution in taking on more exposure to Saudi risk – especially that of the increasingly indebted (bonds plus dividend obligations plus revolving credit lines) Aramco – is that in last year’s bond sale Aramco was able to price the bonds at a tighter spread to the benchmark than Saudi sovereign debt but this time Aramco’s bonds were priced wider.

not sustainable for the long term.

second wave of covid world wide will cause more demand destruction.

[Winehole23]

Aramco mulls pipeline sale:


The situation is dire for Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who has promised to diversify the economy away from oil by 2030—a plan which relies on Aramco revenues to bring to fruition.


Aramco has already cut CAPEX, and this stake sale is the next logical step.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Aramco-To-Sell-Stakes-In-Subsidiaries-To-Raise-Cash.html

[Millennial_Messiah]

I like my $1.69 gas tbh

do never want to go back to the days of >$3 a gallon (worst coast notwithstanding).