Director of CDC predicts death count from COVID-19 will be “much, much, much lower” than expected

[DC23]

The Director of the CDC, Dr. Robert Redfield, was recently interviewed on 1030 KVOI Radio. Apparently he said that the death count is expected to be “much, much, much lower” than previous expectations. He attributes this to people socially distancing as per the CDC’s recommendations.

Do you feel confident in this claim, or do you think that the new projections might be too optimistic? Do you think it would be better for Americans not to hear this, so that they do not quit social distancing too soon?

[spurraider21]

i hope he's right... but i also hope people dont take this as a sign that things are all better now and they can be more lax with the social distancing right now

[Bynumite]

i hope he's right... but i also hope people dont take this as a sign that things are all better now and they can be more lax with the social distancing right now

I called it tbh :tu

[ChumpDumper]

I took a lot of heart in the new numbers. I'm also holing up for the next two weeks. Got everything I need and it's apparently coming up on the highest contagion period.

[slick'81]

We shall see

[hater]

:tu hope so

thanks tonour great scientists who were aboe to convince our dumb politicians :tu

[hater]

good job everyone. our hard work is paying off

[TimDunkem]

Aren't these models based on the assumption that all states will reach an equal level of social distancing? There are still some holdouts.

[phxspurfan]

With the entire world basically locking down, it's certainly a possibility. I think the larger problem is how to start the economies back up and get people working again. Otherwise, the tragedy could be much more than a 1% death rate from those affected by Corona, it could be 50+% unemployment, and a whole host of businesses that will never come back. i.e. a great depression round 2.

[phxspurfan]

Aren't these models based on the assumption that all states will reach an equal level of social distancing? There are still some holdouts.

I think even the stupidest states/countries are going to be forced to distance based on societal pressure by the ones that already see the issue. What's going to be interesting to figure out is when to stop. Social distancing was only meant to keep the infections under the hospital surge capacity, not to lock people in their houses forever to escape some invisible boogey man. Being afraid to go outside is not going to reduce the number of people who will get the virus, and it's not some miracle cure. I think people are thinking it is, when all it does it buy you a month or two.

[pgardn]

Was it the 100,000?

Or the 230,000?

Hope its the former.

[GAustex]

I wonder if they over estimated to scare folks into toeing the line?

[GAustex]

Hurricane forecasting I think may have guilty of this...

[phxspurfan]

https://www.vox.com/coronavirus-covid19/2020/3/27/21193879/coronavirus-covid-19-social-distancing-economy-recession-depression


"I have no idea what is supposed to happen on April 7, when the order ends. Will it be renewed? Did we use this time to radically increase the number of hospital beds and ventilators? Do we have the capacity for mass testing, such that we can move toward something like the models we see in Taiwan or South Korea?

Social distancing itself is not a cure. This becomes sharply clear in the influential Imperial College report modeling different paths for the outbreak (with added commentary here). Yes, social distancing works to slow transmission. But the disease roars back when the restrictions ease. “This type of intensive intervention package — or something equivalently effective at reducing transmission — will need to be maintained until a vaccine becomes available (potentially 18 months or more) — given that we predict that transmission will quickly rebound if interventions are relaxed,”"

"The grim truth, for those of us living under tight lockdowns right now, is it’s not clear that the time we’ve bought is being used well. Social distancing is likely slowing disease transmission, but there’s little evidence that the country has been sufficiently swift in surging health and testing capacity. Indeed, governors of key states are saying, daily, that they’re not getting the support they need. "


"This is where presidential leadership really matters. If Trump had put the full weight of his presidency, and of the federal government, behind a well-sequenced coronavirus response plan, the country could understand what their sacrifice was being used for and feel confident that there was an endgame.

Instead, the opposite is happening. Trump spent a couple of days acting like the president, but he quickly reverted to his more traditional behavior of hammering his enemies and blaming the media for his problems. "


"An irony of the coronavirus crisis is that if we managed it well, it would likely feel to the public that the sacrifice wasn’t worth it. Politicians don’t get credit for the lives they saved, for the catastrophes they averted, but they do get punished for the pain they cause. An ideal response would make the cost of disease suppression visible even as it lured people into a false sense that the virus’s threat was overstated. As Dr. Anthony Fauci, head of the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases, put it, “if it looks like you’re overreacting, you’re probably doing the right thing.”"

[Thread]

I took a lot of heart in the new numbers. I'm also holing up for the next two weeks. Got everything I need and it's apparently coming up on the highest contagion period.

Yep, they're advising people to stay out of the stores for the next 2 weeks.

[boutons_deux]

director is a Trash toadie/sycophant, working under Trash's orders/threats

[Trainwreck2100]

Aren't these models based on the assumption that all states will reach an equal level of social distancing? There are still some holdouts.

yes but because the other states practiced it the response was still mitigated. What will happen with the holdouts is they will have it longer, but it doesn't really matter because in the fall we are all fucked again

[vy65]

I took a lot of heart in the new numbers. I'm also holing up for the next two weeks. Got everything I need and it's apparently coming up on the highest contagion period.

Got a link?

[ChumpDumper]

Got a link?Same sources as before but revised.

http://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

Texas' numbers are about a third of what they were initially and peak hospital use has been moved about 2 weeks earlier.

[vy65]

Same sources as before but revised.

http://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

Texas' numbers are about a third of what they were initially and peak hospital use has been moved about 2 weeks earlier.

thx

[vy65]

Jesus christ 13 more days to peak ...

[ChumpDumper]

Jesus christ 13 more days to peak ...Better than May 5. Daily new case number hasn't really accelerated in Austin yet. Knock wood.

[vy65]

Better than May 5. Daily new case number hasn't really accelerated in Austin yet. Knock wood.

I have a place on the east side. It's been a complete ghost town.

[pgardn]

Was it the 100,000?

Or the 230,000?

Hope its the former.

It is indeed!

~82,000 Aug 4

Now hope we don’t get a fall relapse.

Texas looks very fortunate so far. No more Nursing home screw ups please.

[pgardn]

Was it the 100,000?

Or the 230,000?

Hope its the former.

It is indeed!

~82,000 Aug 4

Now hope we don’t get a fall relapse.

Texas looks very fortunate so far. No more Nursing home screw ups please.

[Spurtacular]

I called it tbh :tu

That Trump's leadership would save us?

Good job, bruh :tu