*** 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread ***

[Millennial_Messiah]

Nice little tropical storm for mid May. Harbinger of an active year, usually we don't see a 60mph TS threatening CONUS land before the official start of the season on June 1st.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT01/refresh/AL012020_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/144602_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 30.5N 77.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 32.0N 76.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 34.3N 75.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 19/0000Z 36.4N 73.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 19/1200Z 37.3N 70.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 20/0000Z 37.1N 68.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 20/1200Z 36.5N 66.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 21/1200Z 35.5N 64.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown





Arthur (active)
Bertha (unused)
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Edouard (unused)
Fay (unused)
Gonzalo (unused)




Hanna (unused)
Isaias (unused)
Josephine (unused)
Kyle (unused)
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Marco (unused)
Nana (unused)




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Vicky (unused)
Wilfred (unused)

[Millennial_Messiah]

3 days into hurricane season and we're already on our 3rd tropical storm, 3rd potential US tropical cyclone and it's barely early June. :lol 2020 continues to get weirder.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT03/refresh/AL032020_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/173946_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 18.6N 92.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
12H 04/0000Z 18.4N 91.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 04/1200Z 18.1N 91.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 05/0000Z 18.9N 90.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 05/1200Z 20.0N 90.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 06/0000Z 21.5N 90.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 06/1200Z 23.5N 90.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 07/1200Z 27.6N 90.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 08/1200Z 31.0N 92.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[Millennial_Messiah]

I'd say the forecast is way too conservative, BUT it is early June and the subtropical jet stream normally isn't so favorable this early in the season for, say, a major hurricane, which would normally be the case in such a track and scenario. Above average sea surface temps across the Gulf, and most of the Atlantic basin in general:

https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/data/5km/v3.1/current/daily/gif/cur_coraltemp5km_ssta_west.gif

[Millennial_Messiah]

70mph TS at landfall is a likelihood; however, the disparity of the time to landfall between the forecast points gives it wiggle room for intensification into a weak hurricane before landfall in Louisiana, which would be pretty unprecedented for early June.