The COVID Numbers Aren't What They Seem

[ducks]

https://lc.org/newsroom/details/20200701the-covid-numbers-arent-what-they-seem-1?fbclid=IwAR0eo2XBhE8-sB2Ih45lpQhMaXMnTeQtJwOjdx9M1WYj4Khpu6Yau3UN12I

[spurraider21]

so not a medical guy, former pastor, on a website called "liberty counsel" which has a nice anti-vax banner near the top, says the numbers arent what they seem

ok!

[TSA]

so not a medical guy, former pastor, on a website called "liberty counsel" which has a nice anti-vax banner near the top, says the numbers arent what they seem

ok!

First claim checked out.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/tens-thousands-coronavirus-tests-have-double-counted-officials/

Not going through any more but not sure why some of you are so quick to dismiss articles like this without doing the slightest bit of research.

[Spurtacular]

:lmao Drive-through testing.
:lmao Serious stuff obviously.

[spurraider21]

First claim checked out.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/tens-thousands-coronavirus-tests-have-double-counted-officials/

Not going through any more but not sure why some of you are so quick to dismiss articles like this without doing the slightest bit of research.
checks out... in the UK?

they then claim it's happening in the US as well. they bring up the fact that 30 some thousand cases in florida may have gotten incorrect results. those arent all false positives. wheres the breakdown of what those test results were? are all those test results currently part of their official figures? i dont know off hand, but the article doesnt substantiate it

i found this article on the subject which indicates that a lot of these people were told they need retesting, but i dont see anything that says these are part of their current numbers. everything i've read so far has suggested that the state has deemed the tests unreliable or could not be processed

https://www.wfla.com/community/health/coronavirus/33000-floridians-who-took-covid-19-test-may-have-incorrect-results-adventhealth-says/

[midnightpulp]

First claim checked out.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/tens-thousands-coronavirus-tests-have-double-counted-officials/

Not going through any more but not sure why some of you are so quick to dismiss articles like this without doing the slightest bit of research.

Because these facts are usually cherry-picked out of confirmation bias in order to try and downplay the virus. I welcomed the point-of-view of Ginn, Berenson, etc early on, but they've been flatout proven wrong. Yet they continue to double-down and goal post move because it's obvious they have an agenda (Ginn, Hart are Libertarians) and have books to sell (Berenson). I think the key stat that cuts through all the noise is the CDC's flu view, which tracks the percentage of people going to the hospital for Influenza Like Illnesses. We can see here that by week 12 (April), the flu usually dies out, with around 2.5 percent of ILI related visits. Week 12 of this year saw that percentage at 6.4%. A 150 percent increase over the worst flu season in recent years (2018). And that was despite our social distancing, sheltering in place, and all the other measures we took to contain spread. We can see in that stats that those measures worked, since the week 12 trajectory was trending sharply upwards (vs. the smooth bell curve roll off we see in flu seasons).

https://i.imgur.com/Aaj9j9L.png
https://i.imgur.com/uwGhegQ.png

And yes, cases are spiking again, leading to increases in hospitalizations and positive rate. We have no idea how likely an exponential explosions really is (wrt to death count), because presumably more younger people are contracting the virus, so more mild cases, but do we really want to play chicken again with the virus? Seems people still haven't grasped the exponential growth concept or are just stubbornly overconfident that "New York can't happen here/again." I agree that New York was the perfect tinder box for this thing to explode, but being even a third as bad as NY is pretty bad. Arizona is disturbingly trending that way.

https://i.imgur.com/kEfQchV.png

[ElNono]

Because these facts are usually cherry-picked out of confirmation bias in order to try and downplay the virus. I welcomed the point-of-view of Ginn, Berenson, etc early on, but they've been flatout proven wrong. Yet they continue to double-down and goal post move because it's obvious they have an agenda (Ginn, Hart are Libertarians) and have books to sell (Berenson). I think the key stat that cuts through all the noise is the CDC's flu view, which tracks the percentage of people going to the hospital for Influenza Like Illnesses. We can see here that by week 12 (April), the flu usually dies out, with around 2.5 percent of ILI related visits. Week 12 of this year saw that percentage at 6.4%. A 150 percent increase over the worst flu season in recent years (2018). And that was despite our social distancing, sheltering in place, and all the other measures we took to contain spread. We can see in that stats that those measures worked, since the week 12 trajectory was trending sharply upwards (vs. the smooth bell curve roll off we see in flu seasons).

https://i.imgur.com/Aaj9j9L.png
https://i.imgur.com/uwGhegQ.png

And yes, cases are spiking again, leading to increases in hospitalizations and positive rate. We have no idea how likely an exponential explosions really is (wrt to death count), because presumably more younger people are contracting the virus, so more mild cases, but do we really want to play chicken again with the virus? Seems people still haven't grasped the exponential growth concept or are just stubbornly overconfident that "New York can't happen here/again." I agree that New York was the perfect tinder box for this thing to explode, but being even a third as bad as NY is pretty bad. Arizona is disturbingly trending that way.

https://i.imgur.com/kEfQchV.png

None of your charts say Gummi Bear though.

[TSA]

Because these facts are usually cherry-picked out of confirmation bias in order to try and downplay the virus. I welcomed the point-of-view of Ginn, Berenson, etc early on, but they've been flatout proven wrong. Yet they continue to double-down and goal post move because it's obvious they have an agenda (Ginn, Hart are Libertarians) and have books to sell (Berenson). I think the key stat that cuts through all the noise is the CDC's flu view, which tracks the percentage of people going to the hospital for Influenza Like Illnesses. We can see here that by week 12 (April), the flu usually dies out, with around 2.5 percent of ILI related visits. Week 12 of this year saw that percentage at 6.4%. A 150 percent increase over the worst flu season in recent years (2018). And that was despite our social distancing, sheltering in place, and all the other measures we took to contain spread. We can see in that stats that those measures worked, since the week 12 trajectory was trending sharply upwards (vs. the smooth bell curve roll off we see in flu seasons).

https://i.imgur.com/Aaj9j9L.png
https://i.imgur.com/uwGhegQ.png

And yes, cases are spiking again, leading to increases in hospitalizations and positive rate. We have no idea how likely an exponential explosions really is (wrt to death count), because presumably more younger people are contracting the virus, so more mild cases, but do we really want to play chicken again with the virus? Seems people still haven't grasped the exponential growth concept or are just stubbornly overconfident that "New York can't happen here/again." I agree that New York was the perfect tinder box for this thing to explode, but being even a third as bad as NY is pretty bad. Arizona is disturbingly trending that way.

https://i.imgur.com/kEfQchV.png

My point was SR immediately dismissed when literally the first claim checked out. Regardless...I think you’ll find this dude interesting

https://mobile.twitter.com/EthicalSkeptic/status/1278107107263471618

[TSA]

Because these facts are usually cherry-picked out of confirmation bias in order to try and downplay the virus. I welcomed the point-of-view of Ginn, Berenson, etc early on, but they've been flatout proven wrong. Yet they continue to double-down and goal post move because it's obvious they have an agenda (Ginn, Hart are Libertarians) and have books to sell (Berenson). I think the key stat that cuts through all the noise is the CDC's flu view, which tracks the percentage of people going to the hospital for Influenza Like Illnesses. We can see here that by week 12 (April), the flu usually dies out, with around 2.5 percent of ILI related visits. Week 12 of this year saw that percentage at 6.4%. A 150 percent increase over the worst flu season in recent years (2018). And that was despite our social distancing, sheltering in place, and all the other measures we took to contain spread. We can see in that stats that those measures worked, since the week 12 trajectory was trending sharply upwards (vs. the smooth bell curve roll off we see in flu seasons).

https://i.imgur.com/Aaj9j9L.png
https://i.imgur.com/uwGhegQ.png

And yes, cases are spiking again, leading to increases in hospitalizations and positive rate. We have no idea how likely an exponential explosions really is (wrt to death count), because presumably more younger people are contracting the virus, so more mild cases, but do we really want to play chicken again with the virus? Seems people still haven't grasped the exponential growth concept or are just stubbornly overconfident that "New York can't happen here/again." I agree that New York was the perfect tinder box for this thing to explode, but being even a third as bad as NY is pretty bad. Arizona is disturbingly trending that way.

https://i.imgur.com/kEfQchV.png

New York can’t and won’t happen again because no is fucking stupid enough to implement the same directives Cuomo did concerning nursing homes/long term care facilities.

[midnightpulp]

My point was SR immediately dismissed when literally the first claim checked out. Regardless...I think you’ll find this dude interesting

https://mobile.twitter.com/EthicalSkeptic/status/1278107107263471618

I'm familiar with him, and his "skepticism" has been chuckled at by the likes of the Covid Bad Takes twitter and he'll supposedly block anyone who criticizes him (not confirmed by me).

And here's the problem with that graph in question (I know he's using it to try and prove that Covid has the same natural bell curve trajectory as the flu, which he'll use to argue that the lockdowns weren't necessary and that Covid would've "gone away" on its own, much like the flu. This is what Levitt argued way back when with the Diamond Princess data).

Flu cases are simply estimates any given season and the rate of testing during flu season isn't as prevalent during our current battle with Covid, so the Covid case count would be presumably more accurate. The CDC estimates for flu cases during any given season will have millions between the lower and upper bounds (i.e. 12-35 million estimated cases, etc). And as I've said before, case count isn't really helpful in determining spread nor severity. As I've shown in my graphs above, hospital visits presenting with flu-like illnesses drop beneath the 2 percent threshold by week 12-14. Meanwhile, Covid was accelerating at week 12, on a clear upward trajectory, before the many lockdowns and social distancing measures took effect. If the virus had a "natural lifespan," as the skeptics suggest, you would see a bell curve roll off from week 12 and on. But what we saw was a growing spike that was sharply mitigated.

The Arizona data should be an eye-opener here. If you looked at their data around mid-April, you might conclude they are past the peak and rolling off (look how their situation conformed to a bell curve from 2-23 to 4-10). There was a bit of tail into summer, and then they spiked after reopening. This should illustrate that this virus has no such natural bell curve lifespan over a specific season like the flu.

[Blake]

so not a medical guy, former pastor, on a website called "liberty counsel" which has a nice anti-vax banner near the top, says the numbers arent what they seem

ok!

:lol these guys like ducks having to dig in the garbage to find anything to confirm their bias

[Blake]

None of your charts say Gummi Bear though.

:lmao

[midnightpulp]

New York can’t and won’t happen again because no is fucking stupid enough to implement the same directives Cuomo did concerning nursing homes/long term care facilities.

I know people want to take Cuomo to task because he's been hailed as a "hero" throughout all of this, but remember I argued that these patients were likely sent to nursing homes because hospitals likely needed to clear space for incoming Covid patients?


The nursing home mandate was intended to relieve pressure on hospitals.

https://newyork.cbslocal.com/2020/05/21/new-york-state-coronavirus-nursing-home-mandate/

I asked if a hospital were seeing their beds fill up with incoming critical cases, where were they supposed to send recovering patients if they had nowhere else to go (i.e. typical scenario of selfish family sending their elderly family members away to a nursing home, who probably live out of state). And yes, this could conceivably happen anywhere if the beds start filling up and there's nowhere to send recovered patients. I'm not defending Cuomo, but his miscalculation wasn't so cut-and-dry. Him and the NY health department anticipated many more hospital cases than what actually happened (Cuomo changed the strategy on May 10th). At this time (late March/early April), everyone was desperately trying to avoid becoming the next Italy, so hospitals all over were scrambling to keep as many beds as possible open. In NY, who faced a much greater surge than the likes of FL, many patients early on unfortunately had to be discharged to nursing homes because NY really had no idea how bad the surge was going to get. Florida, California, etc had the luxury of a low surge early on, so they weren't pressed the same to judgment decisions (re: nursing homes) like Cuomo.

That said, even if we subtract the nursing home death toll (estimated around 40 percent) from NY's numbers, they would've still incurred 20K deaths. 5x the amount of flu deaths they have in a typical season. That's still bad. And being half as bad as that is still bad.

[TSA]

I know people want to take Cuomo to task because he's been hailed as a "hero" throughout all of this, but remember I argued that these patients were likely sent to nursing homes because hospitals likely needed to clear space for incoming Covid patients?



https://newyork.cbslocal.com/2020/05/21/new-york-state-coronavirus-nursing-home-mandate/

I asked if a hospital were seeing their beds fill up with incoming critical cases, where were they supposed to send recovering patients if they had nowhere else to go (i.e. typical scenario of selfish family sending their elderly family members away to a nursing home, who probably live out of state). And yes, this could conceivably happen anywhere if the beds start filling up and there's nowhere to send recovered patients. I'm not defending Cuomo, but his miscalculation wasn't so cut-and-dry. Him and the NY health department anticipated many more hospital cases than what actually happened (Cuomo changed the strategy on May 10th). At this time (late March/early April), everyone was desperately trying to avoid becoming the next Italy, so hospitals all over were scrambling to keep as many beds as possible open. In NY, who faced a much greater surge than the likes of FL, many patients early on unfortunately had to be discharged to nursing homes because NY really had no idea how bad the surge was going to get. Florida, California, etc had the luxury of a low surge early on, so they weren't pressed the same to judgment decisions (re: nursing homes) like Cuomo.

That said, even if we subtract the nursing home death toll (estimated around 40 percent) from NY's numbers, they would've still incurred 20K deaths. 5x the amount of flu deaths they have in a typical season. That's still bad. And being half as bad as that is still bad.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/nyregion/ny-coronavirus-usns-comfort.html

[spurraider21]

My point was SR immediately dismissed when literally the first claim checked out.
No. His only claim was that our covid numbers are off. That was wrong. What happened in the UK is irrelevant

[TSA]

I know people want to take Cuomo to task because he's been hailed as a "hero" throughout all of this, but remember I argued that these patients were likely sent to nursing homes because hospitals likely needed to clear space for incoming Covid patients?



https://newyork.cbslocal.com/2020/05/21/new-york-state-coronavirus-nursing-home-mandate/

I asked if a hospital were seeing their beds fill up with incoming critical cases, where were they supposed to send recovering patients if they had nowhere else to go (i.e. typical scenario of selfish family sending their elderly family members away to a nursing home, who probably live out of state). And yes, this could conceivably happen anywhere if the beds start filling up and there's nowhere to send recovered patients. I'm not defending Cuomo, but his miscalculation wasn't so cut-and-dry. Him and the NY health department anticipated many more hospital cases than what actually happened (Cuomo changed the strategy on May 10th). At this time (late March/early April), everyone was desperately trying to avoid becoming the next Italy, so hospitals all over were scrambling to keep as many beds as possible open. In NY, who faced a much greater surge than the likes of FL, many patients early on unfortunately had to be discharged to nursing homes because NY really had no idea how bad the surge was going to get. Florida, California, etc had the luxury of a low surge early on, so they weren't pressed the same to judgment decisions (re: nursing homes) like Cuomo.

That said, even if we subtract the nursing home death toll (estimated around 40 percent) from NY's numbers, they would've still incurred 20K deaths. 5x the amount of flu deaths they have in a typical season. That's still bad. And being half as bad as that is still bad.

And your provided link doesn’t help your case

[TSA]

No. His only claim was that our covid numbers are off. That was wrong. What happened in the UK is irrelevant

First claim checked out, as I said.

[clambake]

Covid numbers aren’t what they seem.....cuz they are gonna blow up

[spurraider21]

First claim checked out, as I said.
That wasn’t his claim. His claim was that the US numbers are wrong. That’s like him saying 2 + 3 = 6 and then you say “but his first claim that the number 2 exists checked out”

[midnightpulp]

And your provided link doesn’t help your case

I didn't provide it to make my case. I provided it to show you what the thinking was during the time. Cuomo gravely miscalculated the amount of resources he would need. He was operating under the assumption that the capacity would fill up at such a rate, that they needed to discharge recovered patients ASAP. Early on in NY, it looked like that might happen ("Italy!"), but the social distancing and lockdown measures proved to be enough for them to handle the surge, even though some area hospitals did get overwhelmed. My point here is that I might've done the same thing as Cuomo if I feared we'd run out of capacity, since taking care of critical patients is more of a priority than housing recovered patients. And if I can't discharge them to their families (who also might not have the means to take care of a recovering patient), nursing homes/rehab facilities might be the only option. Discharging elderly patients to nursing homes to recover from a critical hospital stay is SOP, usually.

I get you're annoyed with the Cuomo hero spin on left leaning networks while in the same breath they demonize DeSantis, but neither is really deserving of the utmost praise. DeSantis's initial response was terrible, but he lucked out that Florida's environment isn't/wasn't as conducive to spread as New York's environment (warm weather/pop density/outside spread theories were just theories at the time, and might still be). Cuomo acted in good faith (in lieu of agenda driven bad faith from the likes DeBlasio, who was urging people to come and celebrate the Chinese New Year to stick it to Trump), but he unfortunately miscalculated. And we all miscalculated (from armchair epidemiologists to modelers and so on. This virus is still very serious, but early on, I for one thought we might need to build a shitload of hospitals over the summer to deal with the constant surges. Italy's situation put everyone on high alert.

And to credit Cuomo, he reversed the nursing policy in early May, and NY has largely flattened the curve.

Furthermore, the NY times article you linked does illustrate what was happening.


Only 20 patients had been transferred to the ship, officials said, even as New York hospitals struggled to find space for the thousands infected with the coronavirus.

So you're Cuomo. Heathcare officials are telling you hospitals are filling up. The Comfort won't take Covid patients. You need to free up beds right now. There's many stable recovered Covid patients occupying those beds. So where do you send them, especially if they need some additional care? If said patient's only next of kin is their essential worker daughter, you can't send them home, since the daughter can't be there 24/7 to take care of the patient. Or maybe they have no family members. Nursing homes are probably the only option in cases like that.

[ElNono]

I didn't provide it to make my case. I provided it to show you what the thinking was during the time. Cuomo gravely miscalculated the amount of resources he would need. He was operating under the assumption that the capacity would fill up at such a rate, that they needed to discharge recovered patients ASAP. Early on in NY, it looked like that might happen ("Italy!"), but the social distancing and lockdown measures proved to be enough for them to handle the surge, even though some area hospitals did get overwhelmed. My point here is that I might've done the same thing as Cuomo if I feared we'd run out of capacity, since taking care of critical patients is more of a priority than housing recovered patients. And if I can't discharge them to their families (who also might not have the means to take care of a recovering patient), nursing homes/rehab facilities might be the only option. Discharging elderly patients to nursing homes to recover from a critical hospital stay is SOP, usually.

I get you're annoyed with the Cuomo hero spin on left leaning networks while in the same breath they demonize DeSantis, but neither is really deserving of the utmost praise. DeSantis's initial response was terrible, but he lucked out that Florida's environment isn't/wasn't as conducive to spread as New York's environment (warm weather/pop density/outside spread theories were just theories at the time, and might still be). Cuomo acted in good faith (in lieu of agenda driven bad faith from the likes DeBlasio, who was urging people to come and celebrate the Chinese New Year to stick it to Trump), but he unfortunately miscalculated. And we all miscalculated (from armchair epidemiologists to modelers and so on. This virus is still very serious, but early on, I for one thought we might need to build a shitload of hospitals over the summer to deal with the constant surges. Italy's situation put everyone on high alert.

And to credit Cuomo, he reversed the nursing policy in early May, and NY has largely flattened the curve.

Furthermore, the NY times article you linked does illustrate what was happening.

So you're Cuomo. Heathcare officials are telling you hospitals are filling up. The Comfort won't take Covid patients. You need to free up beds right now. There's many stable recovered Covid patients occupying those beds. So where do you send them, especially if they need some additional care? If said patient's only next of kin is their essential worker daughter, you can't send them home, since the daughter can't be there 24/7 to take care of the patient. Or maybe they have no family members. Nursing homes are probably the only option in cases like that.

I'm not sure why he keeps repeating that, we talked about it, and the claim that the USS Comfort was empty while this was going in is questionable at best (https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/new-yorks-nursing-homes-ship-empty/).

It doesn't mean Cuomo is without blame. He had a number of fuckups, including not funding the emergency stockpile in NY before the pandemic.

But doubling down on this claim is kinda silly. He even tried to argue the vast majority of deaths in NY were due to that, and presented some right-wing study to the effect. The actual underlying data on that study (that he himself presented) said only 13% of deaths in NY were from nursing homes. I don't recall him responding to that.

[spurraider21]

i pointed out the same thing about darrin... mentions the new york nursing home situation so frequently that its akin to a nervous tick

[midnightpulp]

I'm not sure why he keeps repeating that, we talked about it, and the claim that the USS Comfort was empty while this was going in is questionable at best (https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/new-yorks-nursing-homes-ship-empty/).

It doesn't mean Cuomo is without blame. He had a number of fuckups, including not funding the emergency stockpile in NY before the pandemic.

But doubling down on this claim is kinda silly. He even tried to argue the vast majority of deaths in NY were due to that, and presented some right-wing study to the effect. The actual underlying data on that study (that he himself presented) said only 13% of deaths in NY were from nursing homes. I don't recall him responding to that.

Yeah, that would be the thing to hold his feet to the fire vs. the nursing home situation. Like I said, at the time when New York was surging and hospital workers were saying beds were quickly filling, Cuomo might've had no choice but to send those recovered patients to nursing homes.

[midnightpulp]

i pointed out the same thing about darrin... mentions the new york nursing home situation so frequently that its akin to a nervous tick

It's because they're mad that Cuomo, an "evil Democrat," was lauded as a hero on "liberal media," while Trump fanboys like DeSantis were heavily criticized, so republican posters feel the reporting wasn't fair. But there was a lot of praise for Mike DeWine and Larry Hogan in the press (https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/01/politics/mike-dewine-coronavirus-leadership-ohio/index.html). DeSantis deserved all the criticism at the time for not closing down beaches ASAP during Spring Break. Sure, we know a bit more now that Covid might not transmit effectively outdoors, but we didn't know at the time. DeSantis basically backed into good results (so far) by virtue of Florida's natural advantages vs. New York, not by any measures he did, as Florida was one of the last states to issue a stay-at-home order. Florida is currently spiking now. First time they've logged a double digit positive rate and hospitalizations have increased by 1500 over the past week, so we'll see what happens.

[Will Hunting]

That wasn’t his claim. His claim was that the US numbers are wrong. That’s like him saying 2 + 3 = 6 and then you say “but his first claim that the number 2 exists checked out”
:lmao

To use another example, it could also be like defending the theory that the basement to a pizza restaurant operates a child sex trafficking ring by saying its first claim is correct because the pizza restaurant is exists, tbh.

[boutons_deux]

The 100%-bad-faith, lying pro-Trash / anti-pandemic propaganda is confusing the public mortally, esp the Trash cult mob who are already deeply, totally confused

[pgardn]

Right now we are being hit by a second wave of infections mostly in states that thought the viral spread would go down in the summer and that economies needed to be more fully opened. Right now We have red team governors scrambling to bring these awful numbers backdown as their decisions are causing a second wave of infections in the US

So what is NOT as it seems?

[ElNono]

It's because they're mad that Cuomo, an "evil Democrat," was lauded as a hero on "liberal media," while Trump fanboys like DeSantis were heavily criticized, so republican posters feel the reporting wasn't fair. But there was a lot of praise for Mike DeWine and Larry Hogan in the press (https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/01/politics/mike-dewine-coronavirus-leadership-ohio/index.html). DeSantis deserved all the criticism at the time for not closing down beaches ASAP during Spring Break. Sure, we know a bit more now that Covid might not transmit effectively outdoors, but we didn't know at the time. DeSantis basically backed into good results (so far) by virtue of Florida's natural advantages vs. New York, not by any measures he did, as Florida was one of the last states to issue a stay-at-home order. Florida is currently spiking now. First time they've logged a double digit positive rate and hospitalizations have increased by 1500 over the past week, so we'll see what happens.

Actually, I think it's a lot closer to whataboutism... it's sorta like "you can't blame Trump because look at Cuomo!"... which is really a deflection no matter how you look at it.

[spurraider21]

Actually, I think it's a lot closer to whataboutism... it's sorta like "you can't blame Trump because look at Cuomo!"... which is really a deflection no matter how you look at it.
Cuomo? are you talking about the guy that sent recovering covid patients to nursing homes?

[boutons_deux]

50K new cases per day

[tholdren]

I'm familiar with him, and his "skepticism" has been chuckled at by the likes of the Covid Bad Takes twitter and he'll supposedly block anyone who criticizes him (not confirmed by me).

And here's the problem with that graph in question (I know he's using it to try and prove that Covid has the same natural bell curve trajectory as the flu, which he'll use to argue that the lockdowns weren't necessary and that Covid would've "gone away" on its own, much like the flu. This is what Levitt argued way back when with the Diamond Princess data).

Flu cases are simply estimates any given season and the rate of testing during flu season isn't as prevalent during our current battle with Covid, so the Covid case count would be presumably more accurate. The CDC estimates for flu cases during any given season will have millions between the lower and upper bounds (i.e. 12-35 million estimated cases, etc). And as I've said before, case count isn't really helpful in determining spread nor severity. As I've shown in my graphs above, hospital visits presenting with flu-like illnesses drop beneath the 2 percent threshold by week 12-14. Meanwhile, Covid was accelerating at week 12, on a clear upward trajectory, before the many lockdowns and social distancing measures took effect. If the virus had a "natural lifespan," as the skeptics suggest, you would see a bell curve roll off from week 12 and on. But what we saw was a growing spike that was sharply mitigated.

The Arizona data should be an eye-opener here. If you looked at their data around mid-April, you might conclude they are past the peak and rolling off (look how their situation conformed to a bell curve from 2-23 to 4-10). There was a bit of tail into summer, and then they spiked after reopening. This should illustrate that this virus has no such natural bell curve lifespan over a specific season like the flu.

Coronaviruses are seasonal, so they would follow such a curve. Additionally, the manufacturing of data does not allow you to make any conclusion from Arizona or the usa.
For the millionth time - the way "new" cases are counted is impossible for you to make a point about spikes.

If they are using deaths hospitalizations and cases from april or even from june 27 and throwing them into new counts on July 3. You cannot argue or claim the curve is false.

It would be beneficial to get a whole look at june and see how this person filters the junk out of the data

[DMC]

Actually, I think it's a lot closer to whataboutism... it's sorta like "you can't blame Trump because look at Cuomo!"... which is really a deflection no matter how you look at it.

Mostly because the left hasn't really said much about the guy who was in charge of the 10x death count situation and chose, instead, to target the 10x less death count governors or the POTUS because of politics. Let's not pretend Cuomo got any serious shit here. If Texas and NY numbers were reversed, Cuomo would be the 2nd coming of Christ, more than he already is. The bias here is door to door salesman level rhetoric, it's palpable just how biased these takes are, and how nonsensical if it's about lives instead of politics.

[Ef-man]

https://lc.org/newsroom/details/20200701the-covid-numbers-arent-what-they-seem-1?fbclid=IwAR0eo2XBhE8-sB2Ih45lpQhMaXMnTeQtJwOjdx9M1WYj4Khpu6Yau3UN12I

I also found this site with information and facts similar to this article.

Turns out we did not land on moon!

https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=144487

[pgardn]

Mostly because the left hasn't really said much about the guy who was in charge of the 10x death count situation and chose, instead, to target the 10x less death count governors or the POTUS because of politics. Let's not pretend Cuomo got any serious shit here. If Texas and NY numbers were reversed, Cuomo would be the 2nd coming of Christ, more than he already is. The bias here is door to door salesman level rhetoric, it's palpable just how biased these takes are, and how nonsensical if it's about lives instead of politics.

Like the POTUS has no say.

Crock o' shit.
Zero National Leadership for the United States.

United my ass

[boutons_deux]

it sure looks like the red/Confederate states obviously consider the COVID numbers as believable,

as they all reduce or cancel 4th July activities, parks, facilities, beaches.

Even Abbott finally got off his butt and is charging $250 fine for anybody violating mask rules. :lol

[tholdren]

100k tests in april to 600k tests currently. With not context of new cases. But the daily case count.

[tholdren]

Covid deaths will soon be attributed to anyone who was affected by lockdown. This is not good.

[DMC]

Like the POTUS has no say.

Crock o' shit.
Zero National Leadership for the United States.

United my ass

Unwarranted bifurcation.

POTUS having a say doesn't remove culpability from the one in charge of NY. Democrat governors allow rioting to destroy cities, POTUS threatens to step in and liberals here shout fascism. Democrat governors allow 30K people to die because he grouped the weakest together and POTUS doesn't step in, liberals here shout incompetence.

2. No, the president cannot simply order state and local officials to change their policies

Here we have issues that fall under the headings of both federalism and separation of powers. Let’s start with federalism.

Most readers will appreciate this already, but it needs to be said: Our constitutional order has a federal structure, meaning that (a) federal powers are supreme, yes, but limited in scope and (b) the state governments are independent entities, not mere subordinate layers under and within the federal government (that is, the federal-state relationship is not similar to the way that counties and cities are subordinate layers under the state governments).

What follows from this? The federal government cannot commandeer the machinery of the state governments (or, by extension, of local governments). That is, the federal government cannot coerce the states into taking actions to suit federal policy preference. See, e.g., New York v. United States and Printz v. United States. And so, the federal government cannot compel state and local officials to promulgate different rules on social distancing and the like.

https://www.lawfareblog.com/can-federal-government-override-state-government-rules-social-distancing-promote-economy

What else are you an expert on because you're absolutely shitty at this subject.

[boutons_deux]

Right now we are being hit by a second wave of infections mostly in states that thought the viral spread would go down in the summer and that economies needed to be more fully opened. Right now We have red team governors scrambling to bring these awful numbers backdown as their decisions are causing a second wave of infections in the US

So what is NOT as it seems?

this is still the first wave. Cases never dropped low enough to define 1st phase.

I bet we stay in 1st phase through end of the year

[DMC]

Covid deaths will soon be attributed to anyone who was affected by lockdown. This is not good.

If you're on the left it's great talking point material, November isn't that far away and many are praying for more deaths of people they don't know.

[ChumpDumper]

Meh, I wished your guy had been competent in the first place. Too bad he's the worst president in US history. That's on you.

[DMC]

Meh, I wished your guy had been competent in the first place. Too bad he's the worst president in US history. That's on you.

You ran the incompetent wife of an impeached POTUS against him. That's on you.

You allowed your party to ass fuck Bernie Sanders, also on you.

You'll still vote for whomever they say. Still on you.

[ChumpDumper]

You ran the incompetent wife of an impeached POTUS against him. That's on you.You support and say Trump is doing a good job after he was impeached. That's on you.

[DMC]

You support and say Trump is doing a good job after he was impeached. That's on you.

I wouldn't run Melania in the primary.

[ChumpDumper]

I wouldn't run Melania in the primary.You still support Donald.

[tholdren]

You still support Donald.
You supported lockdowns

[ElNono]

Mostly because the left hasn't really said much about the guy who was in charge of the 10x death count situation and chose, instead, to target the 10x less death count governors or the POTUS because of politics. Let's not pretend Cuomo got any serious shit here. If Texas and NY numbers were reversed, Cuomo would be the 2nd coming of Christ, more than he already is. The bias here is door to door salesman level rhetoric, it's palpable just how biased these takes are, and how nonsensical if it's about lives instead of politics.

You could say the same about the right, and that really boils down to left and right team fanbois, which will never admit to anything anyways. So I'm not really sure why would anybody get worked up about that.

If we're discussing character, at the very least Cuomo said he takes full responsibility, something completely contrary to POTUS. Now, saying and doing are two different things, that much is clear.

[DMC]

You could say the same about the right, and that really boils down to left and right team fanbois, which will never admit to anything anyways. So I'm not really sure why would anybody get worked up about that.

If we're discussing character, at the very least Cuomo said he takes full responsibility, something completely contrary to POTUS. Now, saying and doing are two different things, that much is clear.

So it's not about what he did or didn't do, but his TV mea culpa?

And no, you cannot say the same for the right since compared to NY's death total, those states are a walk in the park. There's just this constant tap dance routine back over to blaming the right and causally dismissing the high death states' governments with some fallacious comment about how the POTUS has control over states policies.

[ElNono]

So it's not about what he did or didn't do, but his TV mea culpa?

And no, you cannot say the same for the right since compared to NY's death total, those states are a walk in the park. There's just this constant tap dance routine back over to blaming the right and causally dismissing the high death states' governments with some fallacious comment about how the POTUS has control over states policies.

You can absolutely say the same thing for the right... You can pretend the federal government doesn't exist, but it does. NY, which we all agree took the brunt of the deaths (so far anyways), only accounts for 25% of total national deaths.

And the Federal government absolutely has the ability to have control over state policies. Not only that, it actually has the power to supersede them. The tapdancing is pretending that it does not.

Not to mention they're in charge of the coordination of health services (NIH), disease prevention (CDC), drug approval (FDA)... that's their job, and all those agencies happen to run not only at the Federal level, but specifically under the Executive branch through the DHHS.

So let's stop pretending that the bungling and inaction of the POTUS has anything to do with lack of authority. It's simply a false statement.

You can certainly advance that the POTUS picked a strategy (leave it to the States) that eventually worked for some and didn't for others, and then we can discuss whether that was the correct call. But you simply cannot divorce that he could have done more if he wanted to do more, and he had full authority to do so.

As far as character, I largely agree that you need to look at what they do. But whenever somebody botches something, I also think it's important to see what they say.

This is because you have these people still running for office in some capacity (POTUS is running for re-election, I believe Cuomo will continue to have a political career), so character also does matter to an extent.

[tholdren]

covid ifr less than flu in texas Arizona and California

Fact. Lol RandomGuy and TimDunkem

[midnightpulp]

covid ifr less than flu in texas Arizona and California

Fact. Lol RandomGuy and TimDunkem

Link?

[tholdren]

Link?

You need a link to do math from state sites? If that is the case you have no business commenting on numbers.

[tholdren]

Florida covid death risk now less than average risk of death in US.

This means at any age you are more likely to die from something else rather than covid.

Yes. Even. The. Flu.

[spurraider21]

You can absolutely say the same thing for the right... You can pretend the federal government doesn't exist, but it does. NY, which we all agree took the brunt of the deaths (so far anyways), only accounts for 25% of total national deaths.

And the Federal government absolutely has the ability to have control over state policies. Not only that, it actually has the power to supersede them. The tapdancing is pretending that it does not.

Not to mention they're in charge of the coordination of health services (NIH), disease prevention (CDC), drug approval (FDA)... that's their job, and all those agencies happen to run not only at the Federal level, but specifically under the Executive branch through the DHHS.

So let's stop pretending that the bungling and inaction of the POTUS has anything to do with lack of authority. It's simply a false statement.

You can certainly advance that the POTUS picked a strategy (leave it to the States) that eventually worked for some and didn't for others, and then we can discuss whether that was the correct call. But you simply cannot divorce that he could have done more if he wanted to do more, and he had full authority to do so.

As far as character, I largely agree that you need to look at what they do. But whenever somebody botches something, I also think it's important to see what they say.

This is because you have these people still running for office in some capacity (POTUS is running for re-election, I believe Cuomo will continue to have a political career), so character also does matter to an extent.
Orange man good. Libs bad.

[ducks]

According to the PC Coronavirus Police, protesting America is safe, but celebrating America is unsafe #HappyFourthOfJuly

[ChumpDumper]

According to the PC Coronavirus Police, protesting America is safe, but celebrating America is unsafe #HappyFourthOfJulyDepends on how you do it.

[tholdren]

Depends on how you do it.
Right. No beaches. Beaches not okay. But protests are okay..

[midnightpulp]

You need a link to do math from state sites? If that is the case you have no business commenting on numbers.

I know all the numbers. You're talking out of your ass, as usual.

And you're full of shit stating that the flu is less deadly than Covid in CA, AZ, TX. Quit lying and spreading dangerous misinfo.

https://i.imgur.com/xFoXjzw.png

California is currently at 6314 Covid deaths.

https://i.imgur.com/0mgHKEg.png

Arizona is currently at 1788 Covid deaths.

Texas combines Flu and Pneumonia deaths, so Covid hasn't caught up there yet. But here's the knockdown stat that should illustrate that Covid is more deadly.

https://i.imgur.com/uKNXDhs.png

You'll notice that the 2020 spike occurs past the weeks when we typically see deaths spike from the flu and pneumonia, so we can't really argue that flu plus Covid was responsible for this surge. It was Covid, and it caused many more pneumonia deaths than even the nasty 2018 Flu season. And we didn't lock down for the 2018 season.

Shut the fuck up and quit spreading misinfo. It's shit like this that is giving people who live on facebook on twitter a false sense of security to go out and live life as normal, and could get them killed. NO NUMBERS agree with any of your retarded speculations. So again, stay home if you can and wear a fuckin' mask if you go out.

[tholdren]

I know all the numbers. You're talking out of your ass, as usual.

And you're full of shit stating that the flu is less deadly than Covid in CA, AZ, TX. Quit lying and spreading dangerous misinfo.

https://i.imgur.com/xFoXjzw.png

California is currently at 6314 Covid deaths.

https://i.imgur.com/0mgHKEg.png

Arizona is currently at 1788 Covid deaths.

Texas combines Flu and Pneumonia deaths, so Covid hasn't caught up there yet. But here's the knockdown stat that should illustrate that Covid is more deadly.

https://i.imgur.com/uKNXDhs.png

You'll notice that the 2020 spike occurs past the weeks when we typically see deaths spike from the flu and pneumonia, so we can't really argue that flu plus Covid was responsible for this surge. It was Covid, and it caused many more pneumonia deaths than even the nasty 2018 Flu season. And we didn't lock down for the 2018 season.

Shut the fuck up and quit spreading misinfo. It's shit like this that is giving people who live on facebook on twitter a false sense of security to go out and live life as normal, and could get them killed. NO NUMBERS agree with any of your retarded speculations. So again, stay home if you can and wear a fuckin' mask if you go out.

Deaths alone do not equal ifr. Sorry. Im correct. You are wrong

[midnightpulp]

Deaths alone do not equal ifr. Sorry. Im correct. You are wrong

IFR is a speculation, you massive retard. We dont even know the flu's true IFR because the case estimates have a huge range between the lower and upper bounds.

Anyhow, many experts estimate Covids itrue infection count s anywhere from 5x to 20x the official count. Even at 20x the official count, the IFR is still higher than the flu.

And again, look at the pneumonia spike in 2020. Love how you ignore that.

[tholdren]

IFR is a speculation, you massive retard. We dont even know the flu's true IFR because the case estimates have a huge range between the lower and upper bounds.

Anyhow, many experts estimate Covids itrue infection count s anywhere from 5x to 20x the official count. Even at 20x the official count, the IFR is still higher than the flu.

And again, look at the pneumonia spike in 2020. Love how you ignore that.
No, its not. Not currently in aztxfl

[midnightpulp]

No, its not. Not currently in aztxfl

Yeah, they magically figured out the true infection rate for a new disease in those states when they can't do it with the flu :lol

Are you this dumb, really? Do you even how IFR is calculated? They extrapolate from the official case count, and that extrapolation ALWAYS has a wide range.

Again, show me the link where those states have confidently calculated their true infection rate (if you still don't get it, true infection count is not the official case count).

[RandomGuy]

First claim checked out.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/tens-thousands-coronavirus-tests-have-double-counted-officials/

Not going through any more but not sure why some of you are so quick to dismiss articles like this without doing the slightest bit of research.

Because... ducks


Stupid motherfucker.

Article was some bullshit, and you fell for it.