Iran, and a warning not to get complacent about Covid.

[midnightpulp]

But we already got complacent. Anyhow, Iran's situation should act as a cautionary tale about why you don't declare victory too soon, with such retarded claims as "the virus has a natural curve!" and other such nonsense. Here was Iran's projection in May (from one of the most accurate models out there)

https://i.imgur.com/3zgNzyN.png

Iran was one of the first global hotspots and were pacing with Italy early on. They got their outbreak under control quickly, with a lockdown, but we're lulled into a false sense of security. If Iran were the US during their period of decline, we'd have a bunch of "skeptics" on the likes of twitter telling us about how we overreacted, how the virus has a "natural progression," and how it's naturally dying out. Time to reopen and stop the fear mongering!

Let's see how Iran is looking now:

https://i.imgur.com/4M2bZ0G.png
https://i.imgur.com/gtNFQn4.png

Notice their "double hump" curve (feel free to make a camel joke) and keep that mind. Also notice how case increases do indeed lag deaths, as we know. Iran was spiking over mid May, but their fatality rate was still comparatively low. Again, if Iran were the US during this time, we'd get the same deflections from "the skeptics" that there's nothing to worry about. Sure cases are spiking, but the death rate is flat!

Now about that double hump curve. Let's look at the US's case and death trend.

https://i.imgur.com/I3y1yuP.png

Looking mighty similar to Iran.

Now some might ask why is Iran experiencing a first wave resurgence (this isn't a second wave), while Italy, UK, and other European countries aren't? Because Iran didn't lock down long enough. They started easing restrictions only a couple of weeks after their peak. Italy locked down for about 2 months. Furthermore, Iran is obviously more religious than Europe, and Mosques were again full when restrictions were eased. Sound familiar? But addition to churches being vectors here, we also have bars and clubs, something not as prevalent in Iran.

What's this portend for the US? Not sure. Our peak was driven by a rather unique situation in New York, so I don't expect a plateau of 2K deaths daily like that. But even though we might not get a 2K per day figure, I think this current wave might be worse in a sense (not necessarily in deaths per day) since it's spread out among more states. During the peak, it was a "New York problem," or that's how the skeptics spun it. But now it's a problem in AZ, TX, FL, with CA and GA starting to grow, along with some smaller states.

I don't think a plateau of 1000-1200 with a daily peak that might near 2K is out of the question.

[spurraider21]

this alarmism might do more harm than good by giving people stress and anxiety tbh

[midnightpulp]

this alarmism might do more harm than good by giving people stress and anxiety tbh

Trying to Philo, but I was arguing against the exaggerated 2 million dead projections with disaster porn from Italy being played on a loop. Fear=/=panic.

And yes, playing up the virus as the second coming of the Black Plague during that time did have effects.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/23/coronavirus-phobia-keeping-heart-patients-away-from-er/
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-05-coronavirus-patients-hospital-health-atrisk.html
https://www.healthline.com/health-news/what-covid-19-is-doing-to-our-mental-health

I "fear" this disease, but I'm not depressed nor having panic attacks about it (and I have panic disorder). You can be informative without being hypebolic and fear-mongering.

[Spurtacular]

https://i.imgur.com/4M2bZ0G.png

"Government eases restrictions"

So in other words, the CIA has paid for a fake narrative.
TheGreatYacht These Chumpettes take everything at face value.

[Spurtacular]

this alarmism might do more harm than good by giving people stress and anxiety tbh

Sure. Making people unhealthy and ruining livelihoods does real damage, lite.
You think people work so much because it's fun?

[midnightpulp]

"Government eases restrictions"

So in other words, the CIA has paid for a fake narrative.
TheGreatYacht These Chumpettes take everything at face value.

If it's a conspiracy, Trump and Co. have to also face that firing squad. You ready to aim and fire at your boy?

https://time.com/5863616/trump-ppp-bailout-loans/

But I'm sure Dems and their pals only took the bailout money, right :lol

[Spurtacular]

Sure. Making people unhealthy and ruining livelihoods does real damage, lite.
You think people work so much because it's fun?
TheGreatYacht And these Chumpettes won't take ownership when we have the next politician-made Great Depression.
They'll blame it on orange man all day long.

[Spurtacular]

If it's a conspiracy, Trump and Co. have to also face that firing squad. You ready to aim and fire at your boy?

https://time.com/5863616/trump-ppp-bailout-loans/

But I'm sure Dems and their pals only took the bailout money, right :lol

I called out the bailouts from the start. All the Chumpettes here voted present.

[midnightpulp]

TheGreatYacht And these Chumpettes won't take ownership when we have the next politician-made Great Depression.
They'll blame it on orange man all day long.

Bro, if you find rock solid evidence of this, I'll be right there with you on the proverbial firing squad. Just know Trump and his countless repub minions will be shoulder-to-shoulder with their dem counterparts. They really hate each other, don't they?

https://i.imgur.com/O0FscXH.jpg

[Spurtacular]

Bro, if you find rock solid evidence of this, I'll be right there with you on the proverbial firing squad. Just know Trump and his countless repub minions will be shoulder-to-shoulder with their dem counterparts. They really hate each other, don't they?

https://i.imgur.com/O0FscXH.jpg

Bro, I've called out the one-party system. It's Chumpettes who are blue team vs. red team.

[TheGreatYacht]

Bro, if you find rock solid evidence of this, I'll be right there with you on the proverbial firing squad. Just know Trump and his countless repub minions will be shoulder-to-shoulder with their dem counterparts. They really hate each other, don't they?

https://i.imgur.com/O0FscXH.jpg

Spurtacular, he kind of has a point tbh. The shit we see on TV like Fox news vs CNN or Trump vs the media is all theater. Controlled opposition. Three, two, one....ACTION! Let the divide and conquer begin.

[midnightpulp]

I called out the bailouts from the start. All the Chumpettes here voted present.

I revisited your thread. Good call, but the lefties on this site didn't disagree.


I think we discussed this when it was passed, but let's repeat it:

It's despicable, but unfortunately, it's par for the course. This was bipartisan too, there's no left or right here.

Even more terrible that this happens when there are certain groups (poor people, hospitals, etc) that need critical help, but in the big scheme of things, they're going to get peanuts.

Also absurd and corrupt that the POTUS will ignore and not accept oversight of how that money is spent, as mandated on the law.

Surprised you're not more on board with just plain rent strikes and refusals to "go back to work?" Forcing people back into their dead-end wage slave jobs so a billionaire fuck can scrape a few more hundreds of millions off the DOW is also shitty.

[ChumpDumper]

Bro, I've called out the one-party system.You never called out Trump.

Call him out.

[Spurtacular]

You never called out Trump.

Call him out.

Did Obama rape us?

Yes or no.

[Spurtacular]

I revisited your thread. Good call, but the lefties on this site didn't disagree.


I said they voted present.

[Spurtacular]

Spurtacular (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=49615), he kind of has a point tbh. The shit we see on TV like Fox news vs CNN or Trump vs the media is all theater. Controlled opposition. Three, two, one....ACTION! Let the divide and conquer begin.

To a significant degree.

Both parties with media choose our nominees and presidents (as much as they can).

I do think Trump was not meant to be in the nomination or the presidency.

But he was never too big a threat, tbh.

[ChumpDumper]

Did Obama rape us?

Yes or no.Your characterization.

Not mine.

Why don't you believe anything you say?

[Spurtacular]

Your characterization.

Not mine.

Why don't you believe anything you say?

If we don't have matching definitions, then I don't see the point. You're just playing a game; and you're crying that I won't play.

[ChumpDumper]

If we don't have matching definitions, then I don't see the point. You're just playing a game; and you're crying that I won't play.My definition doesn't have to match yours.

Your definition has to match yours.

It doesn't.

Just say you don't count Trump in any of your criticisms of government or a part of any of your government conspiracy theories. That'll take care of it.

[Spurtacular]

My definition doesn't have to match yours.

Your definition has to match yours.

It doesn't.

Just say you don't count Trump in any of your criticisms of government or a part of any of your government conspiracy theories. That'll take care of it.

:cry We don't have to meet on equal terms :cry

:lol Spoken like the psychopath you are.

[ChumpDumper]

:cry We don't have to meet on equal terms :cry

:lol Spoken like the psychopath you are.:lol you're saying I have to agree with you on everything or you won't discuss anything.

OK. That explains everything about you here.

[Spurtacular]

:lol you're saying I have to agree with you on everything or you won't discuss anything.

OK. That explains everything about you here.

I've came to a determination that Trump has not raped us. Thank you for your interest.

[ChumpDumper]

Just say you don't count Trump in any of your criticisms of government or a part of any of your government conspiracy theories. That'll take care of it.


I've came to a determination that Trump has not raped us. Thank you for your interest.

[Spurtacular]

Did Obama rape us, cherp?

Yes or no.

[TheGreatYacht]

To a significant degree.

Both parties with media choose our nominees and presidents (as much as they can).

I do think Trump was not meant to be in the nomination or the presidency.

But he was never too big a threat, tbh.

Bruh, that's where you and I have our differences. Trump is part of the plan. He's an actor. He's another Zionist freemason puppet.

Unfortunately, he IS the chosen one to fulfill the NWO and Agenda 21.

"I am the chosen one."

- Donald Trump

[ElNono]

Surprised you're not more on board with just plain rent strikes and refusals to "go back to work?" Forcing people back into their dead-end wage slave jobs so a billionaire fuck can scrape a few more hundreds of millions off the DOW is also shitty.

Because it has to be effective. A rent strike simply delays the inevitable eviction, and not going to work means the inevitable firing. And so it's a race to the bottom on an already shitty situation.

The PPP loans were supposed to be an incentive for companies to keep payroll and avoid those firings, even if employees didn't want to go back to work (but didn't quit). Should also tentatively cover the case of people not losing salary and thus avoiding being behind on their rents.

However, this has a number of fatal flaws:

1) Companies can downsize greatly before applying for the loan (or even after, there's a grace period from the loan approval until you have to present your head count sheet). This is something logical to do, since in most cases it would be crazy to keep producing at the same levels pre-pandemic, as the economy will inevitably shrink. Plus there's obviously no penalty if you later on want to expand again.

2) Loans are 2 or 5 years maturity, 1% interest rate, no fees, 6 month deferred payment, no collateral or personal guarantees required. They also cover Business Mortgage interest payment AND Business Rent/Lease payments as part of the forgiveness deal. I mean they're so egregiously good, that you almost, ALMOST, want to get one of these, go to Vegas, and throw it into the roulette. You win, you get to keep anything above the loan amount + 1%, PLUS you still have a solid shot at forgiveness. You lose, you declare bankruptcy, and move on (I'm exaggerating here, but if you don't think some of these companies are not going to do financial gambles with that money, you've not been paying attention).

3) On the point above, you're lending to companies, not persons (you have to be a special kind of stupid not to create an LLC for this). Since you don't need collateral or guarantees, good luck collecting if any of these companies go under (it'll be interesting to keep an eye on that).

4) Loans have all sort of perks, like if you fired somebody and then tried to hire somebody else, as long as you "made a good-faith, written offer to rehire workers that was declined", you're still A-OK.

5) Forgiveness applies even if you reduced your payroll up to 40% during the loan term (in which case the forgiven amount is the lower amount, and you pay the difference).

6) The biggest flaw is that this does nothing to for the unemployed, and due to 1), you're going to get a ton of unemployed.

7) It basically puts a golden-vest on the companies, hopes that the economy will somehow rebound, and companies will be flush with cash to re-hire. It's not a bad plan, but you would think you want more certainty about the rebound timing before handing out all that cash.

Now that the unemployment insurance bonus is gone, this puts a lot of pressure on the unemployed, and if the economy really doesn't rebound, you're looking at even shittier dead-end wage slaves just to get by.

We talked about alternatives, like a temporary UBI, etc. Obviously, now that companies are largely off the hook, there's much less urgency for that.

[midnightpulp]

Because it has to be effective. A rent strike simply delays the inevitable eviction, and not going to work means the inevitable firing. And so it's a race to the bottom on an already shitty situation.

The PPP loans were supposed to be an incentive for companies to keep payroll and avoid those firings, even if employees didn't want to go back to work (but didn't quit). Should also tentatively cover the case of people not losing salary and thus avoiding being behind on their rents.

However, this has a number of fatal flaws:

1) Companies can downsize greatly before applying for the loan (or even after, there's a grace period from the loan approval until you have to present your head count sheet). This is something logical to do, since in most cases it would be crazy to keep producing at the same levels pre-pandemic, as the economy will inevitably shrink. Plus there's obviously no penalty if you later on want to expand again.

2) Loans are 2 or 5 years maturity, 1% interest rate, no fees, 6 month deferred payment, no collateral or personal guarantees required. They also cover Business Mortgage interest payment AND Business Rent/Lease payments as part of the forgiveness deal. I mean they're so egregiously good, that you almost, ALMOST, want to get one of these, go to Vegas, and throw it into the roulette. You win, you get to keep anything above the loan amount + 1%, PLUS you still have a solid shot at forgiveness. You lose, you declare bankruptcy, and move on (I'm exaggerating here, but if you don't think some of these companies are not going to do financial gambles with that money, you've not been paying attention).

3) On the point above, you're lending to companies, not persons (you have to be a special kind of stupid not to create an LLC for this). Since you don't need collateral or guarantees, good luck collecting if any of these companies go under (it'll be interesting to keep an eye on that).

4) Loans have all sort of perks, like if you fired somebody and then tried to hire somebody else, as long as you "made a good-faith, written offer to rehire workers that was declined", you're still A-OK.

5) Forgiveness applies even if you reduced your payroll up to 40% during the loan term (in which case the forgiven amount is the lower amount, and you pay the difference).

6) The biggest flaw is that this does nothing to for the unemployed, and due to 1), you're going to get a ton of unemployed.

7) It basically puts a golden-vest on the companies, hopes that the economy will somehow rebound, and companies will be flush with cash to re-hire. It's not a bad plan, but you would think you want more certainty about the rebound timing before handing out all that cash.

Now that the unemployment insurance bonus is gone, this puts a lot of pressure on the unemployed, and if the economy really doesn't rebound, you're looking at even shittier dead-end wage slaves just to get by.

We talked about alternatives, like a temporary UBI, etc. Obviously, now that companies are largely off the hook, there's much less urgency for that.

Sounds shitty, and you called it shitty from the start. I imagine point 2 is going to be exploited like no one's business. Like you said, I'm sure a great deal of shell LLC's are going to be created, the owners will declare those companies bankrupt, saying they just couldn't survive the pandemic, while they made a killing with whatever "personal" financial gamble paid off.

[TimDunkem]

UK is next. They opened up on the 4th although they're probably smart enough to close again as soon as things start trending the other way.

[ElNono]

Sounds shitty, and you called it shitty from the start. I imagine point 2 is going to be exploited like no one's business. Like you said, I'm sure a great deal of shell LLC's are going to be created, the owners will declare those companies bankrupt, saying they just couldn't survive the pandemic, while they made a killing with whatever "personal" financial gamble paid off.

Considering the government is looking to forgive the loans in the best case, I also don't expect they're going to be doing a lot fight off bankruptcies. Like you said, everybody can blame the pandemic. This is just money they decided to burn.

[TimDunkem]

Also, I honestly don't see how we don't at least flirt with the numbers we had before. These upticks are either flat or still going up (Texas had 10k cases yesterday, hospitalizations still rising in every hotspot, etc). If we really do hit 100k a day in a few weeks, then it will almost be a certainty, imho, fwiw.

[Spurtacular]

Bruh, that's where you and I have our differences. Trump is part of the plan. He's an actor. He's another Zionist freemason puppet.

Unfortunately, he IS the chosen one to fulfill the NWO and Agenda 21.

"I am the chosen one."

- Donald Trump

Kasich, Rubio, Bush, Cruz were all groomed system players.
Trump had more autonomy than is preferred.
Not saying they haven't made do; but he was not the chosen one.

[TimDunkem]

60k infections confirmed for yesterday.

[RandomGuy]

Also notice how case increases do indeed lag deaths, as we know.

Awesome post.

Editor:

Should read "Also notice how deaths lag behind case increases, as we know."

The way you phrased it makes it look like the opposite of what you meant.

[boutons_deux]

I also don't expect they're going to be doing a lot fight off bankruptcies.

They will fight like hell to stop bankruptcies in their BigDonor class. That's one of the many reasons for BigDonor buying legislative whores.

The ROI on paying those cheap whores is many 100s of %.

=====================

Taking pandemic money but still laying off 1000s?

There's a loophole for that. And you don't have to be an American company

The Airline Bailout Loophole: Companies Laid Off Workers, Then Got Money Meant to Prevent Layoffs

https://www.propublica.org/article/the-airline-bailout-loophole-companies-laid-off-workers-then-got-money-meant-to-prevent-layoffs?utm_source=pardo%E2%80%A6

[RandomGuy]

B
What's this portend for the US? Not sure. Our peak was driven by a rather unique situation in New York, so I don't expect a plateau of 2K deaths daily like that. But even though we might not get a 2K per day figure, I think this current wave might be worse in a sense (not necessarily in deaths per day) since it's spread out among more states. During the peak, it was a "New York problem," or that's how the skeptics spun it. But now it's a problem in AZ, TX, FL, with CA and GA starting to grow, along with some smaller states.

I don't think a plateau of 1000-1200 with a daily peak that might near 2K is out of the question.

The virus will be vastly more widespread, and I am reasonably sure we will exceed the 2k daily deaths because of that, especially when the second and third order infections start hitting new clusters of older populations, especially in places like Florida.

We've gotten better at treating it, but we are going to overwhelm the health care system in places, and that will cause more deaths. Trump is actively limiting the Federal response when it comes to testing so the normal disaster backstop of concentrated resources will not be as effective.

As for "New York problem" you can bet that was the case. Bunch of smug ass, dumb ass Republican politicians looking on with Schadenfruede at a blue state, and thinking that won't happen here. Fucking morons argued just that in this forum.

The entire episode exposes for me the failures in conservative mindsets to deal effectively with public policy issues. At every turn conservatism fails, and now it is failing with fatal consequences, both for the economy and for people.

[RandomGuy]

Trying to Philo, but I was arguing against the exaggerated 2 million dead projections with disaster porn from Italy being played on a loop. Fear=/=panic.

And yes, playing up the virus as the second coming of the Black Plague during that time did have effects.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/23/coronavirus-phobia-keeping-heart-patients-away-from-er/
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-05-coronavirus-patients-hospital-health-atrisk.html
https://www.healthline.com/health-news/what-covid-19-is-doing-to-our-mental-health

I "fear" this disease, but I'm not depressed nor having panic attacks about it (and I have panic disorder). You can be informative without being hypebolic and fear-mongering.

It will likely kill well around a million people in the US before it is done. .005*.6*330,000,000 still works out to a big number, even if you tweak the variables a bit. (death rate*portion of population infected*population). We will see this thing bounding around the world for years.

The knock off deaths form people putting off "elective" surgeries, or fearing hospital waiting rooms more than the chest pains they are experiencing will be harder to tell. We do have a good measure of what the death rate for all causes was projected to be, i.e. .0088 for the year. I think that will be the baseline to get a much firmer grasp the the ultimate effects, both direct and indirect.

I think the flu season will be a lot milder with more people staying at home for COVID, and, I would guess, getting vaccines at greater rates. One small bright spot.

[pgardn]

this alarmism might do more harm than good by giving people stress and anxiety tbh

The border wall has not been built and the Mexicans rapists are now fleeing our country.
we got problems buddy. Luckily we have made sure that students from Harvard that perhaps might want to stay here have to get the fck out.

Who needs them anyway, we need bodies to work close quarters in meat processing factories.

let’s keep America great and go orange

[RandomGuy]

They will fight like hell to stop bankruptcies in their BigDonor class. That's one of the many reasons for BigDonor buying legislative whores.

The ROI on paying those cheap whores is many 100s of %.

=====================

Taking pandemic money but still laying off 1000s?

There's a loophole for that. And you don't have to be an American company

The Airline Bailout Loophole: Companies Laid Off Workers, Then Got Money Meant to Prevent Layoffs

https://www.propublica.org/article/the-airline-bailout-loophole-companies-laid-off-workers-then-got-money-meant-to-prevent-layoffs?utm_source=pardo%E2%80%A6





Eyup. The big money has bought and paid for the Republican party to represent their interests, and corporate Dems aren't much better. Citizens United created the environment for such cash to completely undermine the political process to tilt towards that interest. We will see a never-ending string of bailouts for big companies, and pennies for everyone else.

[Millennial_Messiah]

The world would be better off if Covid had more of a H5N1 ('05-06 bird flu) or Ebola like mortality rate. The less humans, the better tbh

[boutons_deux]

Western country health care operatons, that obviously publish and share C19 information among themselves, what works and what doesn't, are getting better at treatment. So the CFR, case fatality ratio, apparently going down.

But as always, there's almost no reporting on how badly survivors are variously fucked up, for weeks, for months, and some probably for years.

but CFR here isn't going down that much, so huge increase in cases will produce a huge increase in deaths, and fucked up survivors.

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&cfrMetric=true&dailyFreq=true&perCapita=true&smoothing=7&country=USA~CAN~DNK~FRA~ITA~NOR~ESP~BEL~FIN~DEU~JP N~KOR&pickerMetric=location&pickerSort=asc

[pgardn]

The world would be better off if Covid had more of a H5N1 ('05-06 bird flu) or Ebola like mortality rate. The less humans, the better tbh

do you have a grandfather taking up space?

and you were the one that said you wanted to make babies with as many Karen’s as possible?

I mean that’s two strikes. You not only increase the population, but you pass on your genes that clearly drive you to mate with all the Karen’s you can?

snap out of it dude and do your part...rip your testicles off.

[TimDunkem]

Western country health care operatons, that obviously publish and share C19 information among themselves, what works and what doesn't, are getting better at treatment. So the CFR, case fatality ratio, apparently going down.

But as always, there's almost no reporting on how badly survivors are variously fucked up, for weeks, for months, and some probably for years.

but CFR here isn't going down that much, so huge increase in cases will produce a huge increase in deaths, and fucked up survivors.

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&cfrMetric=true&dailyFreq=true&perCapita=true&smoothing=7&country=USA~CAN~DNK~FRA~ITA~NOR~ESP~BEL~FIN~DEU~JP N~KOR&pickerMetric=location&pickerSort=asc

Scientists warn of potential wave of COVID-linked brain damage


https://news.yahoo.com/scientists-warn-potential-wave-covid-230312538.html

By Kate Kelland

LONDON (Reuters) - Scientists warned on Wednesday of a potential wave of coronavirus-related brain damage as new evidence suggested COVID-19 can lead to severe neurological complications, including inflammation, psychosis and delirium.
A study by researchers at University College London (UCL)described 43 cases of patients with COVID-19 who suffered either temporary brain dysfunction, strokes, nerve damage or other serious brain effects.
The research adds to recent studies which also found the disease can damage the brain.

"Whether we will see an epidemic on a large scale of brain damage linked to the pandemic – perhaps similar to the encephalitis lethargica outbreak in the 1920s and 1930s after the 1918 influenza pandemic – remains to be seen," said Michael Zandi, from UCL's Institute of Neurology, who co-led the study.

COVID-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus, is largely a respiratory illness that affects the lungs, but neuroscientists and specialist brain doctors say emerging evidence of its impact on the brain is concerning.
"My worry is that we have millions of people with COVID-19 now. And if in a year's time we have 10 million recovered people, and those people have cognitive deficits ... then that's going to affect their ability to work and their ability to go about activities of daily living," Adrian Owen, a neuroscientist at Western University in Canada, told Reuters in an interview.

In the UCL study, published in the journal Brain, nine patients who had brain inflammation were diagnosed with a rare condition called acute disseminated encephalomyelitis (ADEM) which is more usually seen in children and can be triggered by viral infections.
The team said it would normally see about one adult patient with ADEM per month at their specialist London clinic, but this had risen to at least one a week during the study period, something they described as "a concerning increase".

[RandomGuy]

Because it has to be effective. A rent strike simply delays the inevitable eviction, and not going to work means the inevitable firing. And so it's a race to the bottom on an already shitty situation.

The PPP loans were supposed to be an incentive for companies to keep payroll and avoid those firings, even if employees didn't want to go back to work (but didn't quit). Should also tentatively cover the case of people not losing salary and thus avoiding being behind on their rents.

However, this has a number of fatal flaws:

1) Companies can downsize greatly before applying for the loan (or even after, there's a grace period from the loan approval until you have to present your head count sheet). This is something logical to do, since in most cases it would be crazy to keep producing at the same levels pre-pandemic, as the economy will inevitably shrink. Plus there's obviously no penalty if you later on want to expand again.

2) Loans are 2 or 5 years maturity, 1% interest rate, no fees, 6 month deferred payment, no collateral or personal guarantees required. They also cover Business Mortgage interest payment AND Business Rent/Lease payments as part of the forgiveness deal. I mean they're so egregiously good, that you almost, ALMOST, want to get one of these, go to Vegas, and throw it into the roulette. You win, you get to keep anything above the loan amount + 1%, PLUS you still have a solid shot at forgiveness. You lose, you declare bankruptcy, and move on (I'm exaggerating here, but if you don't think some of these companies are not going to do financial gambles with that money, you've not been paying attention).

3) On the point above, you're lending to companies, not persons (you have to be a special kind of stupid not to create an LLC for this). Since you don't need collateral or guarantees, good luck collecting if any of these companies go under (it'll be interesting to keep an eye on that).

4) Loans have all sort of perks, like if you fired somebody and then tried to hire somebody else, as long as you "made a good-faith, written offer to rehire workers that was declined", you're still A-OK.

5) Forgiveness applies even if you reduced your payroll up to 40% during the loan term (in which case the forgiven amount is the lower amount, and you pay the difference).

6) The biggest flaw is that this does nothing to for the unemployed, and due to 1), you're going to get a ton of unemployed.

7) It basically puts a golden-vest on the companies, hopes that the economy will somehow rebound, and companies will be flush with cash to re-hire. It's not a bad plan, but you would think you want more certainty about the rebound timing before handing out all that cash.

Now that the unemployment insurance bonus is gone, this puts a lot of pressure on the unemployed, and if the economy really doesn't rebound, you're looking at even shittier dead-end wage slaves just to get by.

We talked about alternatives, like a temporary UBI, etc. Obviously, now that companies are largely off the hook, there's much less urgency for that.

Pretty much.

Companies were flush with cash and profits before and had no clue what to do with it, which was the cause of the huge rate of stock buybacks for publicly traded companies. I think they will weather this a lot better initially that many would expect. On that note, gotta jet.

[TimDunkem]

Arizona implementing crisis care. They're just sending some old people home to die.

[RandomGuy]

Scientists warn of potential wave of COVID-linked brain damage


https://news.yahoo.com/scientists-warn-potential-wave-covid-230312538.html

Eek. I remember seeing something from CNNs Richard Quest:

https://www.cnn.com/videos/health/2020/07/07/quest-sot-coronavirus-side-effects-nr-vpx.cnn

He has reported "being clumsy", strongly suggesting some neurological damage.

This thing is getting in other organ systems other than lungs in many cases.

[TimDunkem]

Eek. I remember seeing something from CNNs Richard Quest:

https://www.cnn.com/videos/health/2020/07/07/quest-sot-coronavirus-side-effects-nr-vpx.cnn

He has reported "being clumsy", strongly suggesting some neurological damage.

This thing is getting in other organ systems other than lungs in many cases.
99% harmless, just the flu, etc.

[RandomGuy]

Arizona implementing crisis care. They're just sending some old people home to die.

https://www.abc15.com/news/coronavirus/health-officials-backtrack-as-no-triage-taking-place-in-hospitals-under-arizonas-crisis-standards-of-care-plan

Not yet. The chances that they get there are pretty high though if the case load keeps going up. Given how wide spread this will be I will guess we will see that somewhere. I am betting Texas.

[midnightpulp]

It will likely kill well around a million people in the US before it is done. .005*.6*330,000,000 still works out to a big number, even if you tweak the variables a bit. (death rate*portion of population infected*population). We will see this thing bounding around the world for years.

The knock off deaths form people putting off "elective" surgeries, or fearing hospital waiting rooms more than the chest pains they are experiencing will be harder to tell. We do have a good measure of what the death rate for all causes was projected to be, i.e. .0088 for the year. I think that will be the baseline to get a much firmer grasp the the ultimate effects, both direct and indirect.

I think the flu season will be a lot milder with more people staying at home for COVID, and, I would guess, getting vaccines at greater rates. One small bright spot.

True, but the original Imperial study that fired everyone up was projecting 2 million dead and 60 million inflected in the first wave. My main issue with that study was they were projecting from China's CFR.

[RandomGuy]

99% harmless,

That is accurate. In the overall population fatality rate is around .0025 to .0066, less than one percent, as long as medical care is available. People make much of the confirmed case load death rate, which misses the majority of cases that never get tested. That majority is four to seven times larger than the confirmed cases.

It is also a bit misleading because that makes it way worse than the flu. One of the ways that the Republican party is collectively lying through its teeth, and through its propaganda machine.

[TimDunkem]

https://www.abc15.com/news/coronavirus/health-officials-backtrack-as-no-triage-taking-place-in-hospitals-under-arizonas-crisis-standards-of-care-plan

Not yet. The chances that they get there are pretty high though if the case load keeps going up. Given how wide spread this will be I will guess we will see that somewhere. I am betting Texas.
It's pretty likely now. I just read that they have 200 ICU beds left in the whole state with no end in sight to the current spike. Agreed we'll probably see it in Texas too, Florida definitely.

[TimDunkem]

That is accurate. In the overall population fatality rate is around .0025 to .0066, less than one percent, as long as medical care is available. People make much of the confirmed case load death rate, which misses the majority of cases that never get tested. That majority is four to seven times larger than the confirmed cases.

It is also a bit misleading because that makes it way worse than the flu. One of the ways that the Republican party is collectively lying through its teeth, and through its propaganda machine.
I wonder what the number of those with longterm-lifelong issues will be when all is said and done. This is to say nothing of the emotional and financial toll this is taking on everyone as well. It's a shit sandwich no matter how you slice it.

[TimDunkem]

https://www.abc15.com/news/coronavirus/health-officials-backtrack-as-no-triage-taking-place-in-hospitals-under-arizonas-crisis-standards-of-care-plan

Not yet. The chances that they get there are pretty high though if the case load keeps going up. Given how wide spread this will be I will guess we will see that somewhere. I am betting Texas.
Phoenix Mayor Kate Gallego just confirmed it's happening in her city right now.

[TimDunkem]

Hope Thread is okay. :wow

[BSfromTX]

Bruh, that's where you and I have our differences. Trump is part of the plan. He's an actor. He's another Zionist freemason puppet.

Unfortunately, he IS the chosen one to fulfill the NWO and Agenda 21.

"I am the chosen one."

- Donald Trump

THIS. He loves his role, too. He totally embraces it.

Again these three things happen regardless of who is in charge: 1. debt increases pretty much exponentially. 2. Gov't power grows. 3. War

[pgardn]

THIS. He loves his role, too. He totally embraces it.

Again these three things happen regardless of who is in charge: 1. debt increases pretty much exponentially. 2. Gov't power grows. 3. War

So you also believe he is a puppet of the Chews?
Just like all the other presidents?
We may need to add you to the category of TGY youtuber.

What happened to the debt under Clinton and a Republican Congress?

[DarrinS]

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/

[Millennial_Messiah]

do you have a grandfather taking up space?

and you were the one that said you wanted to make babies with as many Karen’s as possible?

I mean that’s two strikes. You not only increase the population, but you pass on your genes that clearly drive you to mate with all the Karen’s you can?

snap out of it dude and do your part...rip your testicles off.

better to just get a vasectomy. It's reversible

[spurraider21]

Trying to Philo, but I was arguing against the exaggerated 2 million dead projections with disaster porn from Italy being played on a loop. Fear=/=panic.

And yes, playing up the virus as the second coming of the Black Plague during that time did have effects.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/23/coronavirus-phobia-keeping-heart-patients-away-from-er/
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-05-coronavirus-patients-hospital-health-atrisk.html
https://www.healthline.com/health-news/what-covid-19-is-doing-to-our-mental-health

I "fear" this disease, but I'm not depressed nor having panic attacks about it (and I have panic disorder). You can be informative without being hypebolic and fear-mongering.
2M was with 0 precautions. Same model had less than 100k deaths if proper precautions were taken

[Fabbs]

Have you curtailed your exposure to Iranians because of this?

I've quit going to the busy deli / restaurant that has tons.

I will continue to grant interviews to Sheena Parveen on the left. Horsey teeth on r is also a news anchor.
https://i.redd.it/y4vxrgacnj731.jpg

[tholdren]

But we already got complacent. Anyhow, Iran's situation should act as a cautionary tale about why you don't declare victory too soon, with such retarded claims as "the virus has a natural curve!" and other such nonsense. Here was Iran's projection in May (from one of the most accurate models out there)

https://i.imgur.com/3zgNzyN.png

Iran was one of the first global hotspots and were pacing with Italy early on. They got their outbreak under control quickly, with a lockdown, but we're lulled into a false sense of security. If Iran were the US during their period of decline, we'd have a bunch of "skeptics" on the likes of twitter telling us about how we overreacted, how the virus has a "natural progression," and how it's naturally dying out. Time to reopen and stop the fear mongering!

Let's see how Iran is looking now:

https://i.imgur.com/4M2bZ0G.png
https://i.imgur.com/gtNFQn4.png

Notice their "double hump" curve (feel free to make a camel joke) and keep that mind. Also notice how case increases do indeed lag deaths, as we know. Iran was spiking over mid May, but their fatality rate was still comparatively low. Again, if Iran were the US during this time, we'd get the same deflections from "the skeptics" that there's nothing to worry about. Sure cases are spiking, but the death rate is flat!

Now about that double hump curve. Let's look at the US's case and death trend.

https://i.imgur.com/I3y1yuP.png

Looking mighty similar to Iran.

Now some might ask why is Iran experiencing a first wave resurgence (this isn't a second wave), while Italy, UK, and other European countries aren't? Because Iran didn't lock down long enough. They started easing restrictions only a couple of weeks after their peak. Italy locked down for about 2 months. Furthermore, Iran is obviously more religious than Europe, and Mosques were again full when restrictions were eased. Sound familiar? But addition to churches being vectors here, we also have bars and clubs, something not as prevalent in Iran.

What's this portend for the US? Not sure. Our peak was driven by a rather unique situation in New York, so I don't expect a plateau of 2K deaths daily like that. But even though we might not get a 2K per day figure, I think this current wave might be worse in a sense (not necessarily in deaths per day) since it's spread out among more states. During the peak, it was a "New York problem," or that's how the skeptics spun it. But now it's a problem in AZ, TX, FL, with CA and GA starting to grow, along with some smaller states.

I don't think a plateau of 1000-1200 with a daily peak that might near 2K is out of the question.

wrong.

[midnightpulp]

2M was with 0 precautions. Same model had less than 100k deaths if proper precautions were taken

The projection was 60 million infected, 2 million dead in the FIRST wave if were no precautions were taken. Again, the big problem here is that it assumes an IFR (not CFR) of 3 percent, which was Wuhan's CFR at the time. The best IFR estimates are .003-.006. Now if you want to claim healthcare system collapse would drive up the IFR 10 to 5 times above the baseline, fair enough, but there's no evidence that it would or that Covid could overwhelm every region in the United States. The Diamond Princess was an untended experiment that revealed a few interesting things. Essentially a floating mini-city where a worst case do-nothing scenario was taking place in real time, where healthcare services were obviously insufficient, and where the population was older than average, and the CFR wound up being around 1 percent.

[midnightpulp]

wrong.

Show your math :lmao

[ChumpDumper]

Show your math :lmao:lmao he never will.

He's too humiliated.

[midnightpulp]

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/

?

Not sure what you're implying? The states that had early success are now getting hit. When Italy was recording around 200 daily deaths is when the world started to get rather alarmed, with videos from citizens and doctors begging the world to take it seriously. Texas just recorded 107 deaths today. Their population is half that of Italy's. California recorded 135 deaths.

Consequences of opening up everything too soon and a segment of the population too boneheaded to just wear a fucking mask.

[spurraider21]

The projection was 60 million infected, 2 million dead in the FIRST wave if were no precautions were taken. Again, the big problem here is that it assumes an IFR (not CFR) of 3 percent, which was Wuhan's CFR at the time. The best IFR estimates are .003-.006. Now if you want to claim healthcare system collapse would drive up the IFR 10 to 5 times above the baseline, fair enough, but there's no evidence that it would or that Covid could overwhelm every region in the United States. The Diamond Princess was an untended experiment that revealed a few interesting things. Essentially a floating mini-city where a worst case do-nothing scenario was taking place in real time, where healthcare services were obviously insufficient, and where the population was older than average, and the CFR wound up being around 1 percent.
i believe the imperial study stated outright that they were not accounting for that in their model

[midnightpulp]

i believe the imperial study stated outright that they were not accounting for that in their model

Then yeah, the study was way, way off. The virus isn't lethal enough to kill two million from 60 million infected. And as other studies started to shed more light on the virus's true lethality, the media kept rolling with the Imperial projections while screaming Italy.

I just want balanced reporting. I also don't like the fear porn stories about 16 year olds dying and such. Yes, those incidents should be reported, but people should also be made aware of the chances of a teenager dying from the disease. This is important information for parents and such who want to make informed decisions about the risk/benefit of opening schools.

And when the media DOESN'T report those facts and just click baits with "16 year dies of Covid," it actually fuels conspiracy theories, i.e., "Yeah, yeah, but the media isn't telling us that teenagers only have a .000001 chance of dying, which is less than the flu. Agenda!!!!"

[Will Hunting]

Have you curtailed your exposure to Iranians because of this?

I've quit going to the busy deli / restaurant that has tons.

I will continue to grant interviews to Sheena Parveen on the left. Horsey teeth on r is also a news anchor.
https://i.redd.it/y4vxrgacnj731.jpg
You are one creepy motherfucker.

[spurraider21]

Then yeah, the study was way, way off. The virus isn't lethal enough to kill two million from 60 million infected. And as other studies started to shed more light on the virus's true lethality, the media kept rolling with the Imperial projections while screaming Italy.

I just want balanced reporting. I also don't like the fear porn stories about 16 year olds dying and such. Yes, those incidents should be reported, but people should also be made aware of the chances of a teenager dying from the disease. This is important information for parents and such who want to make informed decisions about the risk/benefit of opening schools.

And when the media DOESN'T report those facts and just click baits with "16 year dies of Covid," it actually fuels conspiracy theories, i.e., "Yeah, yeah, but the media isn't telling us that teenagers only have a .000001 chance of dying, which is less than the flu. Agenda!!!!"
i think its inevitable that a model so early on was going to be flawed, but it was based on the evidence we had at the time. i take no issue with models being adjusted as data rolls in, and during our early conversations i was never holding the imperial study as gospel or whatever the characterization was.

the precise number of the high end estimate was never really at issue because nobody was actually going to sit on their hands and let this thing burn through with zero steps in any direction, especially when we were already seeing exactly what was happening in italy at the same time. i was never making any specific projections... just that it was not sound to assume that NY was going to be isolated and then everything was going to be ok after that

[benefactor]

You are one creepy motherfucker.
Its like every topic he finds some random pic of a woman to post. I guarantee hes the dude in the store waiting for a woman to bend over in a low cut shirt so he can film it with his phone

[midnightpulp]

Deaths are starting to move into that new "hump."

1281752790998618116

[boutons_deux]

Deaths are starting to move into that new "hump."

1281752790998618116

1000s more deaths on Trash's hands, on top of the 100K+ deaths so far in The Trump Pandemic