Trump has 91% chance of winning second term, professor’s model predicts

[ducks]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-91-chance-winning-second-213913320.html

[Reck]

Percentages Good now.

[Blake]

Would it really shock anyone to see Trump win again?

People really need to go vote and not just talk about it

[DMX7]

If the election were held today it would be a historic blowout of Trump. Anything could happen but something has to change for Trump to even have a chance in November. He’s getting blown out in some swing states by more than double the margin or error of the polls.

[Reck]

This guy predicts Trump will get nearly 400 electoral college votes. Lol

[FrostKing]

People whom are anti-government are going to take part in voting? I think the Democrats will need to sell them some radical changes. Not sure Biden will do that, he believes he is a better man and more accomplished than Trump. Biden won't allow himself to be strongarmed nor will he hide and back into the Presidency.

[Blake]

If the election were held today it would be a historic blowout of Trump. Anything could happen but something has to change for Trump to even have a chance in November. He’s getting blown out in some swing states by more than double the margin or error of the polls.

"Norpoth developed the Primary Model, a statistical model he uses to predict the results of United States presidential elections based on data going back to 1912. According to his Web site primarymodel.com, he has used the model to correctly predict five of six presidential elections from 1996 to 2016[4], including Donald Trump's victory in the 2016 election.[5] This model is based on two factors: whether the party that has been in power for a long time seems to be about to lose it, and whether a given candidate did better in the primaries than his or her opponent.[5] In February 2015, he projected that Republicans had a 65 percent chance of winning the general election the following year.[6] In 2016, this model gained significant media attention because it predicted that Donald Trump would win the general election.[7] In response to critics who cited polls in which Clinton led Trump by a significant margin, Norpoth said that these polls were not taking into account who will actually vote in November, writing, "...nearly all of us say, oh yes, I'll vote, and then many will not follow through."[8]"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helmut_Norpoth

[Reck]

"Norpoth developed the Primary Model, a statistical model he uses to predict the results of United States presidential elections based on data going back to 1912. According to his Web site primarymodel.com, he has used the model to correctly predict five of six presidential elections from 1996 to 2016[4], including Donald Trump's victory in the 2016 election.[5] This model is based on two factors: whether the party that has been in power for a long time seems to be about to lose it, and whether a given candidate did better in the primaries than his or her opponent.[5] In February 2015, he projected that Republicans had a 65 percent chance of winning the general election the following year.[6] In 2016, this model gained significant media attention because it predicted that Donald Trump would win the general election.[7] In response to critics who cited polls in which Clinton led Trump by a significant margin, Norpoth said that these polls were not taking into account who will actually vote in November, writing, "...nearly all of us say, oh yes, I'll vote, and then many will not follow through."[8]"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helmut_Norpoth

Historical depression of the vote?

Only way Trump gets 350+ electoral votes.

[boutons_deux]

The pandemic and its economic destruction are voting for Biden

200K dead, 100Ks debilitated survivors, and 10% unemployment on 3 Nov

[midnightpulp]

Annnnnd from the same article a model just as accurate as Norpoth's predicts:


A national election model by Oxford Economics has predicted that Donald Trump will suffer a “historic defeat” in November’s election due to the coronavirus economic recession.

The Oxford model predicted the winner of the popular vote in 16 of the past 18 elections

Norpoth's model is working off pre-Coronavirus data.


The model calculates the winning candidate based on early presidential nominating contests and placing an emphasis on how much enthusiasm candidates are able to generate early in the nominating process, the professor said.

“The terrain of presidential contests is littered with nominees who saw a poll lead in the spring turn to dust in the fall,” Mr Norpoth said.

If the prediction is correct, former vice president Joe Biden is placed at a severe disadvantage due to losses in his party’s first two presidential nominating contests in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Those primaries in February, in which Biden lost to Bernie, are pretty much irrelevant data now. Pre-Corona, Pre-Floyd Protests, and the "enthusiasm" reason makes no sense here because there's a hell of a lot people very enthused to vote against Trump, not necessarily for Biden. Biden has also captured a lot of sympathy since then.

[SnakeBoy]

Historical depression of the vote?


It will be interesting to see what turnout is. Covid fears seem more likely to depress the urban vote, same with the crazy protestors. Meanwhile rural voters are largely unaffected by both.

I have no idea since this is an unprecedented time but there could be plenty of surprises to come.

[ChumpDumper]

I don't know why anyone has a positive reason to vote for Trump.

[ducks]

I don't know why anyone has a positive reason to vote for Trump.

Joe biden not president
That is one reason

[Blake]

I don't know why anyone has a positive reason to vote for Trump.

He loves the Bible

[ChumpDumper]

Joe biden not president
That is one reasonNot a positive reason.

[hater]

Sure but thats only because Biden has 5% chance to make it alive until november

[Spurtacular]

I don't know why anyone has a positive reason to vote for Trump.


Joe biden not president
That is one reason


Not a positive reason.

:lmao Cherp mad.

[ChumpDumper]

:lmao Cherp mad.It's not a positive reason. Do you need it explained to you?

What's your positive reason for voting for Trump?

[Spurtacular]

It's not a positive reason. Do you need it explained to you?

What's your positive reason for voting for Trump?

Sure, it's a positive reason. I need you to stop crying.

[ChumpDumper]

Sure, it's a positive reason.:lol no

I need :lol needy

[ducks]

Joe not being president is positive reason
Trump helped with the New Mexico’s Canada deal better then the other one
Trump has done or tried to do more then what others have said they would do
If the media and even some republican gave him a fair shake at the off sight he would have done more
200 judges in place

[midnightpulp]

Joe not being president is positive reason
Trump helped with the New Mexico’s Canada deal better then the other one
Trump has done or tried to do more then what others have said they would do
If the media and even some republican gave him a fair shake at the off sight he would have done more
200 judges in place

Trump's going to increase welfare, though.

[ChumpDumper]

Joe not being president is positive reason
Trump helped with the New Mexico’s Canada deal better then the other one
Trump has done or tried to do more then what others have said they would do
If the media and even some republican gave him a fair shake at the off sight he would have done more
200 judges in placeOK, judges.

That's one.

[SnakeBoy]

:lmao Cherp mad.

:lol

[Spurtacular]

:lol no
:lol needy

There's any number of positives in not having Biden in the White House.
You should wipe your tears.

[Spurtacular]

Moving past cherp's tears...


“The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November,” Stony Brook professor Helmut Norpoth told Mediaite on Tuesday. (https://www.mediaite.com/news/trump-has-91-percent-chance-of-winning-reelection-political-science-professor/)
Mr Norpoth told the outlet that his model, which he curated in 1996, would have correctly predicted the outcome for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced.



However in Mr Norpoth’s model, not only will the president be re-elected, but he will expand his margin in the electoral college from 304 electoral votes in 2016 to 362 in 2020.

[ElNono]

I'm sure this thread will be bump material no matter what happens.

Also, my understanding is that this model actually started predicting in 1996 (per here (https://pollyvote.com/en/components/models/mixed/primary-model/)).

He got it wrong in 2000, fixed it up a bit, and this is going to be the 6th prediction? Doesn't sound like a big sample size.

But hey, I think it's still early to make a call on this. Definitely a weird electoral year, and a lot of things that can change from here to november.

[Chris]

lol "Pre-Floyd"

[boutons_deux]

Which incumbent ran

... with 10% unemployment? (not true in other countries)

... a cratered economy (not true in other countries)

... 200K dead, 100Ks more damaged from incompetence? USA World Champion!

... overall approval under 40%

... Repug approval dropping?

[Dirks_Finale]

If Biden wins who is the POTUS? Because it won't be Biden.

Scary.

If Trump wins, we eventually get a vaccine for covid, but then swine flu hits us and Trump acts like it doesn't exist just as he did with covid.

Scary.

Insert Yeezy as your next POTUS. :lol


Not a positive reason.

[Reck]

What’s with this obsession with the Biden’s death talk.

Same thing in 2016. Some of you couldn’t shut up about how she wasn’t going to make it 4 years. ST predictors ftw

[MultiTroll]

What’s with this obsession with the Biden’s death talk.

Same thing in 2016. Some of you couldn’t shut up about how she wasn’t going to make it 4 years. ST predictors ftw
While Joe at times looks feeble, Drump isn't exactly chipper looking.

[CosmicCowboy]

Trump is gonna get crushed.

[RandomGuy]

If Biden wins who is the POTUS? Because it won't be Biden.

Scary.

If Trump wins, we eventually get a vaccine for covid, but then swine flu hits us and Trump acts like it doesn't exist just as he did with covid.

Scary.

Insert Yeezy as your next POTUS. :lol

Pretty much gautanteed it will be his VP that will finish the first term and win the second.

[SpursforSix]

While Joe at times looks feeble, Drump isn't exactly chipper looking.

It's a ridiculous choice. There really should be a mental competency test for politicians once they hit 60 or so.
Heck, maybe don't even put an age restriction on it.

[RandomGuy]

Trump is gonna get crushed.

and he is going to drag the bullshit party he took over down with him. Good riddance to bad rubbish.

[Will Hunting]

and he is going to drag the bullshit party he took over down with him.
Wishful thinking.

[RandomGuy]

Joe not being president is positive reason
Trump helped with the New Mexico’s Canada deal better then the other one
Trump has done or tried to do more then what others have said they would do
If the media and even some republican gave him a fair shake at the off sight he would have done more
200 judges in place

Trump has had at least one stroke.

The weakness and awkwardness drinking water gives it away.

[Brazil]

Joe not being president is positive reason
Trump helped with the New Mexico’s Canada deal better then the other one
Trump has done or tried to do more then what others have said they would do
If the media and even some republican gave him a fair shake at the off sight he would have done more
200 judges in place

:lol not tired of sucking Trump dick tbh ?

[RandomGuy]

Wishful thinking.

To some degree. Driving massive Democratic turnout isn't going to help Republicans keep office.

[FrostKing]

To some degree. Driving massive Democratic turnout isn't going to help Republicans keep office.
"We need the rioters to vote for us"

Speaking of rubbish party

[Reck]

Wishful thinking.

Not really.

Republican voters were already loons. Trump allowed them to take off their masks.

If Trump loses, the base won't go back to their holes and be secretly racist anymore. They want a culture war and with Trump gone most republican politicians will get amnesia and say they never liked or knew Trump anyway.

I dont see them turning out for chumps like Rubio.

[Will Hunting]

Not really.

Republican voters were already loons. Trump allowed them to take off their masks.

If Trump loses, the base won't go back to their holes and be secretly racist anymore. They want a culture war and with Trump gone most republican politicians will get amnesia and say they never liked or knew Trump anyway.

I dont see them turning out for chumps like Rubio.
Yeah I heard the same shit about Sarah Palin being the one who’d “expose” the Republican Party as loons.

Its still 40% of the country which is enough to win elections when the other 60% doesn’t have consistent voter turnout.

Theyll find another Trump to run in 4 years.

[Chucho]

The pandemic and its economic destruction are voting for Biden

200K dead, 100Ks debilitated survivors, and 10% unemployment on 3 Nov


Let's make a bet. If Trump wins, you kill yourself. If Biden wins, I'll pay you three times what your mom collects off you from SSI. So...like $350? I'm still outdoing the value of your life by $349. It's a good bet in your favor. Worst case scenario, they start a GoFundMe to throw your ashes in a Ralph's dumpster.

[ElNono]

Let's make a bet. If Trump wins, you kill yourself. If Biden wins, I'll pay you three times what your mom collects off you from SSI. So...like $350? I'm still outdoing the value of your life by $349. It's a good bet in your favor. Worst case scenario, they start a GoFundMe to throw your ashes in a Ralph's dumpster.

:lol

[ElNono]

double post

[FrostKing]

Yeah I heard the same shit about Sarah Palin being the one who’d “expose” the Republican Party as loons.

Its still 40% of the country which is enough to win elections when the other 60% doesn’t have consistent voter turnout.

Theyll find another Trump to run in 4 years.
25% of nation is conservative
25% of nation is liberal
50% of nation is in the middle

[RandomGuy]

Yeah I heard the same shit about Sarah Palin being the one who’d “expose” the Republican Party as loons.

Its still 40% of the country which is enough to win elections when the other 60% doesn’t have consistent voter turnout.

Theyll find another Trump to run in 4 years.

Whoever they find will be painted as Trump 2.0, and lose. Four more years of whites aging out and young hispanics aging in will take its toll on Texas' landscape. Those kids don't even have to vote at higher rates than they have historically to change that, but I can tell you the kids in my wifes classes are MAD. I think Trump has lost a generation for the Republican party.

Once Republicans lose their grip on Texas, they will not see the White House again. They won this time by 77,000 votes with the single most unpopular Democratic candidate I can remember.

[Will Hunting]

:lol Republicans currently have the White House, the courts, and the senate. Of the 3 branches of government at the federal level, Republicans control 2.5 of them. At the state and local level they control most state legislatures and most gubernational seats.

Anyone declaring the death of the Republican Party is detached from reality.

[Will Hunting]

25% of nation is conservative
25% of nation is liberal
50% of nation thinks they both suck and doesn’t give a shit
fify

[Chucho]

:lol Republicans currently have the White House, the courts, and the senate. Of the 3 branches of government at the federal level, Republicans control 2.5 of them. At the state and local level they control most state legislatures and most gubernational seats.

Anyone declaring the death of the Republican Party is detached from reality.


Those are the people who think the Repub party is exclusive to mental acumen equivalent to derp, kori and ducks and haven't had interactions with other Repubs.

Basically, the flip side of the coin on how the derps and duckses view Libs.

[Nbadan]

I think Biden's VP pick will be critical because I see Biden only doing 1 term. Harris is the logical pick to help pull in black voters and the mid-west swing states

[RandomGuy]

:lol Republicans currently have the White House, the courts, and the senate. Of the 3 branches of government at the federal level, Republicans control 2.5 of them. At the state and local level they control most state legislatures and most gubernational seats.

Anyone declaring the death of the Republican Party is detached from reality.

Delta ---time.

Not saying it will be entirely powerless or vanish, but it will not control as much after November, other than a lot of real estate.

Remember a lot of that control is predicated on its successful gerrymandering. If that vanishes, they will be dramatically reduced in power.

[Blake]

Wishful thinking.

Yup.

[Blake]

Those are the people who think the Repub party is exclusive to mental acumen equivalent to derp, kori and ducks and haven't had interactions with other Repubs.

Basically, the flip side of the coin on how the derps and duckses view Libs.

Not exclusive but goddam there a large number of dumbfuck pieces of shit in the Republican party and a lot of it starts with them trying to appease the retarded Evangelical base.

[GB20]

I think Biden's VP pick will be critical because I see Biden only doing 1 term. Harris is the logical pick to help pull in black voters and the mid-west swing states

I think susan rice would be the right choice.

[florige]

Trump is gonna get crushed.


He was supposed to get crushed in 2016 and look what happened. It's all about turnout on the Dem's side because you know his die hards are gonna be out to vote. The thing Biden does have for him that Hillary had was at least he isn't widely hated like she was.

[FrostKing]

Delta ---time.

Not saying it will be entirely powerless or vanish, but it will not control as much after November, other than a lot of real estate.

Remember a lot of that control is predicated on its successful gerrymandering. If that vanishes, they will be dramatically reduced in power.
I believed the exact same thing heading into the 2004 election. 16 years later...

[Will Hunting]

Delta ---time.

Not saying it will be entirely powerless or vanish, but it will not control as much after November, other than a lot of real estate.

Remember a lot of that control is predicated on its successful gerrymandering. If that vanishes, they will be dramatically reduced in power.
Their control of the senate, presidency, governor seats and federal courts have fuck all to do with gerrymandering. State borders aren’t gerrymandering.

[Reck]

Arizona, Colorado, Maine puts Democrats at 49-51 in the senate. Or am I wrong?

Not accounting for Tillis, Ernst, Purdue etc which are currently trending D.

[Will Hunting]

Arizona, Colorado, Maine puts Democrats at 49-51 in the senate. Or am I wrong?

Not accounting for Tillis, Ernst, Purdue etc which are currently trending D.
Not sure if this is in response to me but no that’s not wrong, they’re at 49 if they win those seats and lose Alabama.

My only point is that declarations that the Republican Party is dead are ridiculous when as it currently stands they control a lot more government than Dems do.

On a tangent - id be surprised if they don’t win at least Iowa or NC. Joni Ernst’s recent CNN interview was painful to watch and Tillis is doing awful in the polls.

[Trainwreck2100]

Their control of the senate, presidency, governor seats and federal courts have fuck all to do with gerrymandering. State borders aren’t gerrymandering.

It's their control of state governments where they got to where they are. They played the long game and focused on local elections, while the Dems were busy caring about gay marriage. Dems could win the next decade and we'd still be fucked.

[Reck]

Not sure if this is in response to me but no that’s not wrong, they’re at 49 if they win those seats and lose Alabama.

My only point is that declarations that the Republican Party is dead are ridiculous when as it currently stands they control a lot more government than Dems do.

On a tangent - id be surprised if they don’t win at least Iowa or NC. Joni Ernst’s recent CNN interview was painful to watch and Tillis is doing awful in the polls.

Yeah I agree with the doom and gloom party is over talk. A better word would be "weakened."

In hindsight, Hillary did a lot of damage. Not only on the presidency level but also senate. She put the senate in the line of fire and cost some seats even though the candidates themselves were atrocious. We got lucky with Tester holding on to his seat.

[Will Hunting]

Yeah I agree with the doom and gloom party is over talk. A better word would be "weakened."

In hindsight, Hillary did a lot of damage. Not only on the presidency level but also senate. She put the senate in the line of fire and cost some seats even though the candidates themselves were atrocious. We got lucky with Tester holding on to his seat.
I think the courts are where she hurt the Dems. I actually think the silver lining to her losing is that it staved off a 2018 midterm bloodbath. If she won 2018 would have been another midterm election with shitty turnout the same way 2010 and 2014 were, and look at how many senate seats the Dems lose in 2018 with bad turnout (West Virginia, Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, Montana, Ohio, Maine)

The Republicans probably have a super majority in the senate right now if Hillary were president imo.

[boutons_deux]

It's their control of state governments where they got to where they are. They played the long game and focused on local elections, while the Dems were busy caring about gay marriage. Dems could win the next decade and we'd still be fucked.

SCOTUS rules on a tiny percentage of cases. The Repugs figured they could screw the country by polluting the Federal judiciary. 200 judges waved through in Trash's term, after McConnell spent 8 years blocking nearly all of Obama's nominations. 100% bad faith by the oligarchy that spent $10Ms getting their judges nominated with rubber-stamp approval by McConnell.

USA is fucked for decades, long after Trash, Leonard Leo, McConnell are out of power or dead.

[Spurminator]

In hindsight, this guy was wrong.

[Reck]

Arizona, Colorado, Maine puts Democrats at 49-51 in the senate. Or am I wrong?

Not accounting for Tillis, Ernst, Purdue etc which are currently trending D.

Mixed bag.

I was dead on on 2 and iffy on the rest while hedging on the Georgia race which can still go D.

[Blake]

In hindsight, this guy was wrong.

Well he left himself a 9% out

[ElNono]

:lmao:lmao:lmao MAGAtard math

[ChumpDumper]

In hindsight, this guy was wrong.:lol dude hasn't been on twitter since 10/25.

[tholdren]

:lmao:lmao:lmao MAGAtard math

Neil furguson says hello

[ElNono]

Neil furguson says hello

Virus: 1
Boomer: 0

Let us proceeeeed.

[ducks]

Trump won had they not cheated
Plenty of proof out there

[ElNono]

https://media.tenor.com/images/20d3418cecd91f3ad8804c848b2d286c/tenor.gif

[MASSA]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iyv905Q2omU

[ChumpDumper]

:lol derp is feeling the pressure of losing

[Winehole23]

1326302833042460675

[DMC]

All these tweets :lol

ST

Stupid Tweets

[ChumpDumper]

:lmao DMC ignores the actual content of the tweets after lying about voting for Biden.

[Ghazi]

I am the President of the United States and the Supreme Leader of Iran

I travel at the speed of light

Forget about the misinformation on CNN

[Winehole23]

:lmao DMC ignores the actual content of the tweets after lying about voting for Biden.

https://i.pinimg.com/originals/d2/38/ca/d238ca3df765fd751a8d79bd4454f3de.jpg

[Ghazi]

Trump and Biden are frozen in time, while I'm the President of the United States. Wake up to the hoax

I am a soldier of God, ready to go to war at all times

The time for Israel and USA has run out

[pgardn]

https://i.pinimg.com/originals/d2/38/ca/d238ca3df765fd751a8d79bd4454f3de.jpg

Reverse that and you can play the saxophone by ear.

[pgardn]

Trump and Biden are frozen in time, while I'm the President of the United States. Wake up to the hoax

I am a soldier of God, ready to go to war at all times

The time for Israel and USA has run out

You just flippn said you were peaceful.
And there you go Acting like the basic derpal ST poster.

Or is this some sort of metaphorical war.

[ElNono]

1326302833042460675

whatever happened with Senate confirmation of these individuals? Wouldn't that come up there?

[baseline bum]

OP had 100% chance of being a faggot

[Winehole23]

whatever happened with Senate confirmation of these individuals? Wouldn't that come up there?Acting basis, presumably. If legal authority be lacking, a new DOJ legal opinion may supply it.

[Winehole23]

today's NR on the solemn right to challenge

https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/001/933/917/750.jpg



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