Team Derpality. Don't fall for the tricks of the Covid "truthers."

[midnightpulp]

It all stated with that Aaron Ginn Medium article posted in mid-March, which to be fair, did have some useful content and challenged the prevailing projections at the time of 60 million infected/2 million dead. Ginn's analysis was correct in that regard. But since then, Ginn, among other truthers, led by a pulp novelist named Alex Berenson have went off the reservation with their denial and have sadly manipulated the tholdren's of the world along with more reasonable people (like TSA) into believing Covid "isn't that bad" and/or that we have already crushed the curve. So they conclude that any headline claiming Covid deaths are rising is simply "fear mongering" by the mainstream media.

This is the primary data they use.

https://i.imgur.com/QSs8Rpf.png

What you're looking it is the weekly death toll from the CDC. The "truthers" will plot on a graph like this and then say, "See. Look how we've flattened!"

Big image, so I'll just post the link.

https://imgur.com/9hk4HlY

What this image is illustrating is the difference between the time the deaths actually occurred and when they were added to the various data tracking sites that the media use to report daily deaths. On July 4th, you can see the difference between the CDC (orange bar) and the Covidtracking project's (blue bar) count. The reason for the former's higher count is because backlogged cases that happened weeks or months ago are finally getting tallied. So with this, the truthers conclude that daily deaths are being grossly over-reported and there's really no spike happening at all! It's just backlogged data finally being added.

But what they fail to omit is that the CDC only counts deaths when they receive an OFFICIAL death certificate. How long does it take to get a death certificate?


How long does it take to get a death certificate? Four parties are involved in processing the first death certificate, so the amount of time it takes to arrive can vary. However, it is normal for a county to take 2-3 weeks to process an order, and the state could take 3-4 weeks.

Boiled down. The CDC's data lags by weeks, maybe months, since death certificates can sometimes take months. "Team reality" fell for this phenomenon before when they were sharing this popular image.

https://i.imgur.com/MBOAWge.png

And what happened when the data caught up?

https://i.imgur.com/lFqW2iL.png

This twitter user sums it up:

1281305434520014849

[Spurtacular]

To be fair, it didn't start with an article.
People could smell this bull shit miles away.

[midnightpulp]

To be fair, it didn't start with an article.
People could smell this bull shit miles away.

You were going to be a "truther," either way. Ginn's article and the subsequent data tricks of "Team Reality" (Justin Hart, Ethical Skeptic, Alex Berenson) have roped in many non-conspiracy types, because they do present their data viz rather compellingly that the uninformed will fall for.

[ChumpDumper]

To be fair, derp is really quite stupid.

[Spurtacular]

You were going to be a "truther," either way. Ginn's article and the subsequent data tricks of "Team Reality" (Justin Hart, Ethical Skeptic, Alex Berenson) have roped in many non-conspiracy types, because they do present their data viz rather compellingly that the uninformed will fall for.

:lol "non-conspiracy" types

[midnightpulp]

To be fair, derp is really quite stupid.

Derpality wasn't named after Spurtacular, but the collective of "truthers" on twitter who are trying to spin the data anyway they can to downplay the situation. Alex Berenson coined the term for his squad.

[ChumpDumper]

Derpality wasn't named after Spurtacular, but the collective of "truthers" on twitter who are trying to spin the data anyway they can to downplay the situation. Alex Berenson coined the term for his squad.Totally fits though.

[Spurtacular]

Derpality wasn't named after Spurtacular

So Nother Level stole that. Can't say I'm surprised.

[Spurtacular]

https://i.imgur.com/QSs8Rpf.png

What you're looking it is the weekly death toll from the CDC.

So, cases skyrocketing and deaths halving.

Yea, that's what I think of when I think pandemic.

https://www.needsomefun.net/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/mad-man-Don-Draper-quotes-2.jpg

[ChumpDumper]

:lol derp can't read

Thinks he's Don Draper.

[Spurtacular]

:lol derp can't read

Thinks he's Don Draper.

Do you think you're somehow not the sheep Don Draper spoke of?

:lol Cherp's cognitive dissonance

[ChumpDumper]

Do you think you're somehow not the sheep Don Draper spoke of?

:lol Cherp's cognitive dissonanceYou're quoting a basic cable character over and over like it's some kind of profound shit.

:lol sad

[DMX7]

The sheep are the ones that think Don Draper is a real person.

[DMX7]

You're quoting a basic cable character over and over like it's some kind of profound shit.

:lol sad

No, he saw it on Netflix. That shit is premium. :lol

[DMX7]

You're quoting a basic cable character over and over like it's some kind of profound shit.

:lol sad

No, he saw it on Netflix. That shit is premium. :lol

[ChumpDumper]

No, he saw it on Netflix. That shit is premium. :lol:lmao

[Spurtacular]

TheGreatYacht

Look at these chumpettes dismissing Hollywood when it suits them.
Convenience. Par.

[DMX7]

TheGreatYacht

Look at these chumpettes dismissing Hollywood when it suits them.
Convenience. Par.

Lol, begging for help to bail you out of this thread. :lol

[ChumpDumper]

TheGreatYacht

Look at these chumpettes dismissing Hollywood when it suits them.
Convenience. Par.Do you ever dismiss Hollywood?

Yes or no.

[Spurtacular]

TheGreatYacht (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=43719)

Look at these chumpettes dismissing Hollywood when it suits them.
Convenience. Par.

They sure as fuck weren't mocking Cuck Garden when he was throwing a tantrum that we all need to get micro-chipped cos :cry The Jetsons :cry

:lmao

TheGreatYacht

[ChumpDumper]

Lol, begging for help to bail you out of this thread. :lol:lmao All that guy would do is post a bunch of YouTubes.

[DMX7]

:lmao All that guy would do is post a bunch of YouTubes.

He’ll take whatever he can get. :lol

[midnightpulp]

So, cases skyrocketing and deaths halving.

Yea, that's what I think of when I think pandemic.

https://www.needsomefun.net/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/mad-man-Don-Draper-quotes-2.jpg

Um, positive rate is about half of where it was during the peak. This puts on track for around a 1000 death per day 7 average. That's still BAD. We're just desensitized because we went through a worse peak (worst peak in the entire world) that was concentrated in the North East.

If people would've heeded the advice, we'd probably be looking forward to a 100-200 day 7 average and lower over the next month, and also looking forward to a late Summer full reopening. The "Freedumbs" and "MAGATs" fucked it up.

[Spurtacular]

Um, positive rate is about half of where it was during the peak. This puts on track for around a 1000 death per day 7 average. That's still BAD. We're just desensitized because we went through a worse peak (worst peak in the entire world) that was concentrated in the North East.

If people would've heeded the advice, we'd probably be looking forward to a 100-200 day 7 average and lower over the next month, and also looking forward to a late Summer full reopening. The "Freedumbs" and "MAGATs" fucked it up.

People aren't desensitized to the fact that unhealthy people die. That's life.
Careful about pushing your bull shit too hard. There is presumably a breaking point.

[ChumpDumper]

People aren't desensitized to the fact that unhealthy people die. That's life.
Careful about pushing your bull shit too hard. There is presumably a breaking point.What are you gonna do about it?

Cry out for TGY again?

[midnightpulp]

People aren't desensitized to the fact that unhealthy people die. That's life.
Careful about pushing your bull shit too hard. There is presumably a breaking point.

:lol you mean the majority of over 30 year old Americans?

Death isn't the only negative outcome, either.

[midnightpulp]

Just isolate the vulnerable, bro. Let us all get back to work!

https://cdn.statcdn.com/Infographic/images/normal/20981.jpeg

[Spurtacular]

:lol you mean the majority of over 30 year old Americans?

Death isn't the only negative outcome, either.

It's cousin is the common cold. That's what you shut down America for.
By all rights, this should be the death knell of the Democrats.

[Spurtacular]

Just isolate the vulnerable, bro. Let us all get back to work!

https://cdn.statcdn.com/Infographic/images/normal/20981.jpeg

So over at least half the work force shouldn't have been sitting out. :tu

[ChumpDumper]

It's cousin is the common cold. That's what you shut down America for.
By all rights, this should be the death knell of the Democrats.Have you gone to a COVID-19 infection party yet?

Yes or no.

[midnightpulp]

It's cousin is the common cold. That's what you shut down America for.
By all rights, this should be the death knell of the Democrats.

A cobra is a cousin of a garden snake. Bad logic.

And this "cousin" has some tricks its milder cousin doesn't.


Changes in blood platelets triggered by COVID-19 could contribute to the onset of heart attacks, strokes, and other serious complications in some patients who have the disease, according to scientists. The researchers found that inflammatory proteins produced during infection significantly alter the function of platelets, making them 'hyperactive' and more prone to form dangerous and potentially deadly blood clots.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/06/200630125129.htm

Study paid for by Soros, right?

[Spurtacular]

Have you gone to a COVID-19 infection party yet?

Yes or no.

With completely healthy people? I wouldn't object.

If you're talking about a common cold party; I'll pass.

[midnightpulp]

in Spurtacular's world, these are just "cousins," one no more dangerous than the other. :lol

http://www.wildlife-removal.com/images/snakecoralrhyme.jpg

[ChumpDumper]

With completely healthy people? I wouldn't object.

If you're talking about a common cold party; I'll pass.Oh, you're actually afraid of getting COVID-19.:tu

[Spurtacular]

A cobra is a cousin of a garden snake.

Not in terms of fatality. Bad logic.

[ChumpDumper]

:lmao "fatality cousins"

Are you drunk, derp?

[Spurtacular]

Oh, you're actually afraid of getting COVID-19.:tu

I just said I would be fine going against your nazi propaganda. You glossed of that, didn't you? :lol

[ChumpDumper]

I just said I would be fine going against your nazi propaganda. You glossed of that, didn't you? :lolSo get infected. Show us you're not afraid of your fatality cousin virus.

[midnightpulp]

Not in terms of fatality. Bad logic.

:lol

No, you implied that since Covid is a coronavirus, it's no more or less dangerous than the coronavirus that is the common cold. Um, related organisms can have different attributes. Covid is more lethal than the common cold by a factor of god knows how much, just like a Cobra is more lethal than a Garden snake, despite them being "cousins."

[midnightpulp]

So over at least half the work force shouldn't have been sitting out. :tu

Half the workforce sitting out will cause a crash just the same. And there's still many essential jobs and work you can do from home, so I don't think half the workforce was even sitting out.

[Spurtacular]

So get infected. Show us you're not afraid of your fatality cousin virus.

Healthy people gonna kill me!

[Spurtacular]

Half the workforce sitting out will cause a crash just the same. And there's still many essential jobs and work you can do from home, so I don't think half the workforce was even sitting out.

Sitting the healthy players. Solid strategy :tu

[ChumpDumper]

Healthy people gonna kill me!derp folds.

[TheGreatYacht]

To be fair, it didn't start with an article.
People could smell this bull shit miles away.

Word of advice to all the Chumpettes: If you want to know the truth about what's really going on around you, just believe the opposite of what our media and government says ✌

[midnightpulp]

Word of advice to all the Chumpettes: If you want to know the truth about what's really going on around you, just believe the opposite of what our media and government says ✌

Trump is the head of the government, he says Covid is no biggie. So do mainstream media outlets like Fox. Thanks for the advice, bro :tu

[TheGreatYacht]

Trump is the head of the government, he says Covid is no biggie. So do mainstream media outlets like Fox. Thanks for the advice, bro :tu

Fox news has been pushing the Covid hoax as of late. They still showing the fake numbers. Trump locked down the country for God's sake. Our cripled governor of Texas, Greg Faggott made wearing masks mandatory. Ever heard of controlled opposition?

BTW I'm not saying that 100% of what the government and media says is false. I'm just saying that you'll be a lot closer to the truth if you follow my advice.

[TheGreatYacht]

They sure as fuck weren't mocking Cuck Garden when he was throwing a tantrum that we all need to get micro-chipped cos :cry The Jetsons :cry

:lmao

TheGreatYacht

Covid19 is a faith-based religion. Their “God” is the god of Virtue Signaling and Shaming Smart People.

[midnightpulp]

Back on topic. Found this tweet that illustrates how the "backfill" phenomenon plays out.

1280920226994040832

[RandomGuy]

To be fair, it didn't start with an article.
People could smell this bull shit miles away.

The moron in the oval office wanted to look less bad, so he had the smart people put out stuff to make morons like you think that. You are stupidly primed to think that all information that makes that moron look like a moron is false.


Avoidance of and/or denial of any facts that might contradict the group's belief system.
https://carm.org/signs-practices-of-a-cult

[Spurtacular]

The moron in the oval office wanted to look less bad, so he had the smart people put out stuff to make morons like you think that. You are stupidly primed to think that all information that makes that moron look like a moron is false.


https://carm.org/signs-practices-of-a-cult

Have you thanked orange man for saving two million lives yet, snowflake?

[RandomGuy]

Back on topic. Found this tweet that illustrates how the "backfill" phenomenon plays out.

1280920226994040832

Can't see it, but in regards to the OP: yup. It is a reporting lag. The farther you go back in time, the more complete the dataset. Very familiar with this in the insurance industry. Insurance companies are required to hold reserves to account for it.

[SpursforSix]

:lmao "fatality cousins"

Are you drunk, derp?

Hmmmm. Maybe a decent band name. Fatality Twins sounds a little better. Or Fatality Sisters.

[RandomGuy]

Have you thanked orange man for saving two million lives yet, snowflake?

Have you asked him why he is tolerating Russia's bounties on our troops in Afghanistant yet? Or held him to account for extorting our allies for bribes? Or actively breaking the law?

[Spurtacular]

Have you asked him why he is tolerating Russia's bounties on our troops in Afghanistant yet?

He said that even the intelligence agencies don't agree on that.

So, you gonna thank Orange Man for saving all those lives or not?

[RandomGuy]

Sitting the healthy players. Solid strategy :tu

Translation:

"Reducing person to person contact is a dumb way to fight an infectious disease"

Wow.

Just wow. that was one of the dumber things you have said here.

[RandomGuy]

He said that even the intelligence agencies don't agree on that.

So, you gonna thank Orange Man for saving all those lives or not?

Eat a dick. You are letting him give the green light for bounties put on our troops heads.

There is literally nothing you won't excuse.

[TSA]

It all stated with that Aaron Ginn Medium article posted in mid-March, which to be fair, did have some useful content and challenged the prevailing projections at the time of 60 million infected/2 million dead. Ginn's analysis was correct in that regard. But since then, Ginn, among other truthers, led by a pulp novelist named Alex Berenson have went off the reservation with their denial and have sadly manipulated the tholdren's of the world along with more reasonable people (like TSA) into believing Covid "isn't that bad" and/or that we have already crushed the curve. So they conclude that any headline claiming Covid deaths are rising is simply "fear mongering" by the mainstream media.

This is the primary data they use.

https://i.imgur.com/QSs8Rpf.png

What you're looking it is the weekly death toll from the CDC. The "truthers" will plot on a graph like this and then say, "See. Look how we've flattened!"

Big image, so I'll just post the link.

https://imgur.com/9hk4HlY

What this image is illustrating is the difference between the time the deaths actually occurred and when they were added to the various data tracking sites that the media use to report daily deaths. On July 4th, you can see the difference between the CDC (orange bar) and the Covidtracking project's (blue bar) count. The reason for the former's higher count is because backlogged cases that happened weeks or months ago are finally getting tallied. So with this, the truthers conclude that daily deaths are being grossly over-reported and there's really no spike happening at all! It's just backlogged data finally being added.

But what they fail to omit is that the CDC only counts deaths when they receive an OFFICIAL death certificate. How long does it take to get a death certificate?



Boiled down. The CDC's data lags by weeks, maybe months, since death certificates can sometimes take months. "Team reality" fell for this phenomenon before when they were sharing this popular image.

https://i.imgur.com/MBOAWge.png

And what happened when the data caught up?

https://i.imgur.com/lFqW2iL.png

This twitter user sums it up:

1281305434520014849

Please show me where and when I said Covid isn't that bad. Here's a truther pointing out exactly what you are saying they are omitting :lol

https://twitter.com/justin_hart/status/1281274249097797633

[boutons_deux]

"reasonable people (like TSA (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=7640))"

:lol

[DarrinS]

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/

[Chucho]

So...is derp's go-to move now to mention The Great Yauchtschwitz to come and rescue him when he's getting shit on all the time?

[RandomGuy]

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/

Did you even read the OP?

[Spurtacular]

Translation:

"Reducing person to person contact is a dumb way to fight an infectious disease"

Wow.

Just wow. that was one of the dumber things you have said here.

What part of healthy people aren't dying from this don't you understand?

[RandomGuy]

So...is derp's go-to move now to mention The Great Yauchtschwitz to come and rescue him when he's getting shit on all the time?

Pretty much. What is funny is that most people here take yacht less seriously than derp. Personally when yacht tried to say hitler wasn't that bad, that sunk it for me. i have the link in my siggy in case I forgot that.

[Spurtacular]

Eat a dick. You are letting him give the green light for bounties put on our troops heads.

There is literally nothing you won't excuse.

You gonna thank Orange Man for saving those two million lives, or you got a dick stuck in your mouth? :lol

[DMC]

I have no idea who these people are you guys are referring to. I don't watch these bulshit videos that The Great Yapper posts and I don't give a shit what any of these people have to say about it. There are medical/science authorities and then there are idiots. There's not a whole lot of middle ground.

[midnightpulp]

Please show me where and when I said Covid isn't that bad. Here's a truther pointing out exactly what you are saying they are omitting :lol

https://twitter.com/justin_hart/status/1281274249097797633

I figured you share the attitude of the truthers since you usually post their thoughts.

No, Hart, like always, is OMITTING. You didn't read my post carefully enough. Yes, he points out backfilled data gets tallied weeks or months later and this gives the impression of a "spike."

What he omits, however, is there's probably a shitload of people dying right now that AREN'T being tallied and will be added at a much later date.

Again, he's using the backfill phenomenon in only one direction, trying to suggest that deaths are in fact dying down and it's the backfill that is giving the illusion of a recent spike. Death rates follow case increase pretty linearly when the lag catches up. Here's an adjusted correlation showing that:

1281512842160742401

Unless these hot spots have gotten really, really good at treating critical cases, deaths will spike in the following weeks. We're currently at around a 625 rolling 7 day average for deaths. Don't be surprised if that pops to 1000-1500, which is pretty bad, especially for a country past its first plateau.

Hart is implying, "nothing to see here. Deaths will remain flat or drop. Just backlogged data! There's been no real increase." He doesn't understand that what is happening right now isn't being tallied all that much. And going by reports from the frontlines, what is happening right now is hell.

[TSA]

I figured you share the attitude of the truthers since you usually post their thoughts.

No, Hart, like always, is OMITTING. You didn't read my post carefully enough. Yes, he points out backfilled data gets tallied weeks or months later and this gives the impression of a "spike."

What he omits, however, is there's probably a shitload of people dying right now that AREN'T being tallied and will be added at a much later date.

Again, he's using the backfill phenomenon in only one direction, trying to suggest that deaths are in fact dying down and it's the backfill that is giving the illusion of a recent spike. Death rates follow case increase pretty linearity when the lag catches up. Here's an adjusted correlation showing that:

1281512842160742401

Unless these hot spots have gotten really, really good at treating critical cases, deaths will spike in the following weeks. We're currently at around a 625 rolling 7 day average for deaths. Don't be surprised if that pops to 1000-1500, which is pretty bad, especially for a country past its first plateau.

Hart is implying, "nothing to see here. Deaths will remain flat or drop. Just backlogged data! There's been no real increase." He doesn't understand that what is happening right now isn't being tallied all that much. And going by reports from the frontlines, what is happening right now is hell.

While trying to shit on these "truthers" you're completely ignoring them pointing out exactly what you are accusing them of doing. When the media is reporting OMG HUGE SPIKE IN FLORIDA is the media being honest and explaining the backlogged data or are they omitting that?

[TSA]

I figured you share the attitude of the truthers since you usually post their thoughts.

No, Hart, like always, is OMITTING. You didn't read my post carefully enough. Yes, he points out backfilled data gets tallied weeks or months later and this gives the impression of a "spike."

What he omits, however, is there's probably a shitload of people dying right now that AREN'T being tallied and will be added at a much later date.

Again, he's using the backfill phenomenon in only one direction, trying to suggest that deaths are in fact dying down and it's the backfill that is giving the illusion of a recent spike. Death rates follow case increase pretty linearly when the lag catches up. Here's an adjusted correlation showing that:

1281512842160742401

Unless these hot spots have gotten really, really good at treating critical cases, deaths will spike in the following weeks. We're currently at around a 625 rolling 7 day average for deaths. Don't be surprised if that pops to 1000-1500, which is pretty bad, especially for a country past its first plateau.

Hart is implying, "nothing to see here. Deaths will remain flat or drop. Just backlogged data! There's been no real increase." He doesn't understand that what is happening right now isn't being tallied all that much. And going by reports from the frontlines, what is happening right now is hell.

posted in another thread but relevant here discussing Florida

Current trends in Florida show a significant increase in percent positive test results in recent weeks. Florida has significantly increased the amount of testing. The average age of infection has dropped substantially and there is clear evidence that younger people who are much lower risk of death from COVID-19 are out and about.

This second wave of infections is likely similar in magnitude to the initial outbreak in March, but early testing was limited, so this can be inferred by secondary analysis using our COVID Decision Model. We take close look at the current data and evaluate outcome trends in Florida. Our model is well suited for modeling dynamic heterogeneous effects, especially those based on age demographics. Note that data reporting is delayed, and as such, the model may deviate somewhat from updated data. We have modeled a range of scenarios to assess long term outcomes.

We reference the Florida Department of Public Health for statistics. We present the model results for five scenarios. The details of each case study are presented at the bottom of this post.

We make several observations:

People are modulating their connectivity in proportion to their risk.
Infections are up, but deaths will continue to decline.
The Infection Fatality Rate is declining rapidly and approaching flu like levels.
The second wave will rapidly decline over the summer and the virus is likely to die out without the need for vaccine if behavior continues to be modulated by risk.
Florida is doing a good job protecting a large population of elderly vulnerable people.

Despite the criticisms from many seeking to create panic, the people of Florida offer a great example the path forward for COVID-19 mitigation. As the population organically loosens up by age demographic where risks are low, the infection is essentially working through those populations and burning itself out.

From a public policy perspective, it is imperative to educate people to their actual risks so that those who are vulnerable can minimize risky interactions. It is important to continue to protect the vulnerable people who can’t protect themselves in institutions or are under the care. Younger people should continue to minimize potentially infectious contact with vulnerable populations. Good hygiene should continue to be encouraged, including hand washing and wearing masks in close quarter indoors.

This recovery approach provides the best balance of economic recovery and public health.

The Florida Second Wave Model

We have an increase in infections that are likely resulting from an overall increase in connectivity proportional to age (younger people dropping social distancing norms). The loosening of stay at home orders in mid May and widespread civil protests after Memorial Day both contributed to this increased connectivity. This increased social contact for younger demographics has caused a large spike in infections. Death rates resulting from these infections will be very low.

We have modeled a heterogeneous shift in behavior by age group, proportional to actual individual risk. We assess five scenarios to understand the nature of this second infection wave in Florida and a range of outcomes over time. A simulation population of 2 million agents is scaled to the 21.4 million in presented results.

Case 1 assumes modest social distancing and reduced connectivity in proportion to risk (age). This case best matches the current data trends.
Case 2 is the same as Case 1 with incrementally more increased contact.
Case 3 is the same as Case 2 with significantly increased contact going forward. This is not likely a realistic scenario.
Case 4 is similar to Case 1, with reduced contact in July and then increased contact similar to Case 2 from August onward.
Case 5 is light switch to show a worst case and is presented for reference. This is not a realistic scenario.

Case 1, 2 and 3 are representative of likely scenarios. Death and infection trends for these scenarios are presented below. Death curves are well matched to the existing trends. The infections rate shows a clear second hump due to the age stratified increase in mobility (younger cohorts are more mobile) and matches current % positive test trends. We also show the due to the younger distribution of infections, the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) has dropped from an initial value of 0.5% to less than 0.2%.

https://covidplanningtools.com/florida-second-wave-analysis/

[midnightpulp]

While trying to shit on these "truthers" you're completely ignoring them pointing out exactly what you are accusing them of doing. When the media is reporting OMG HUGE SPIKE IN FLORIDA is the media being honest and explaining the backlogged data or are they omitting that?

I'm not sure how I can be more clear. Again, the truthers are using the backfill phenomenon in one way to fit their narrative. They are saying the media is "overreacting" to a situation that isn't taking place in real time. Hart's little graph is even more egregious because it's suggesting that only 31 people died in Florida between July 1st and 8th. He's not pointing out that there's probably hundreds of deaths that occurred during that week that haven't been tallied yet. Do you really believe deaths aren't accelerating in these new hot spots?

Let me see if I can clarify. We know that case and death trajectories track pretty closely (see Iran).

https://i.imgur.com/cQbOKiE.png

And these recent test spikes aren't because of more testing. The positive rate has grown. So what do you is going to happen when the deaths are finally tallied from these case increases?

[boutons_deux]

death is the worst outcome, but C19 non-death, esp hospitalization, kicks one's ass really hard, with symptoms lasting weeks or months (so far)

Any of you assholes who celebrates INCREASING infections only because deaths are "apparently" down are fucking stupid.

You're stupidity for prolonging the pandemic should be rewarded with C19 hospitalization.

[TSA]

I'm not sure how I can be more clear. Again, the truthers are using the backfill phenomenon in one way to fit their narrative. They are saying the media is "overreacting" to a situation that isn't taking place in real time. Hart's little graph is even more egregious because it's suggesting that only 31 people died in Florida between July 1st and 8th. He's not pointing out that there's probably hundreds of deaths that occurred during that week that haven't been tallied yet. Do you really believe deaths aren't accelerating in these new hot spots?

Let me see if I can clarify. We know that case and death trajectories track pretty closely (see Iran).

https://i.imgur.com/cQbOKiE.png

And these recent test spikes aren't because of more testing. The positive rate has grown. So what do you is going to happen when the deaths are finally tallied from these case increases?

I'm not sure how I can be more clear. This thing goes both ways. When the media is reporting OMG HUGE SPIKE IN FLORIDA is the media being honest and explaining the backlogged data or are they omitting that?

[TSA]

I'm not sure how I can be more clear. Again, the truthers are using the backfill phenomenon in one way to fit their narrative. They are saying the media is "overreacting" to a situation that isn't taking place in real time. Hart's little graph is even more egregious because it's suggesting that only 31 people died in Florida between July 1st and 8th. He's not pointing out that there's probably hundreds of deaths that occurred during that week that haven't been tallied yet. Do you really believe deaths aren't accelerating in these new hot spots?

Let me see if I can clarify. We know that case and death trajectories track pretty closely (see Iran).

https://i.imgur.com/cQbOKiE.png

And these recent test spikes aren't because of more testing. The positive rate has grown. So what do you is going to happen when the deaths are finally tallied from these case increases?

https://covidplanningtools.com/florida-second-wave-analysis/

[midnightpulp]

^That analysis of Florida's situation seems very optimistic. Their "worst case" scenario line has them below 5000 deaths (and they're counting backlogs) as late as August 18.

Here's Florida's ED visit data that they mysteriously stopped reporting on by Jun 27th :lol

https://i.imgur.com/PXLh4NU.png

Anecdotes from the frontlines:

https://www.newsweek.com/43-florida-icus-reach-capacity-show-no-beds-available-coronavirus-cases-surge-1516006
https://wptv.com/rebound/excess-deaths-raise-concerns-about-pandemics-death-toll-in-florida
https://www.salon.com/2020/07/08/56-florida-hospitals-hit-100-icu-capacity-as-desantis-defends-refusal-to-release-coronavirus-data/

And the median age has risen.

1281373328721182727

If you don't think this will translate into rising deaths in the coming weeks, not sure what to say.

[midnightpulp]

I'm not sure how I can be more clear. This thing goes both ways. When the media is reporting OMG HUGE SPIKE IN FLORIDA is the media being honest and explaining the backlogged data or are they omitting that?

They're not being honest, but their reporting has more truth than Hart's omission, which is more glaring, since those recent case and death spikes do suggest Florida's situation is accelerating, not improving.

[midnightpulp]

Even Marco Rubio gets it. This is why, "Let the young people do their thing and get infected" is a retarded idea. The virus will eventually find its way to the older population, no matter how hard they try to isolate.

1277634378093473792

[midnightpulp]

More on FL. Today, Florida returned a positive rate of 24% (their highest ever) and 11K new cases, and with a median age increase. Their current death tolls are likely from the period when the median age was 33 two weeks ago.

No, the death toll isn't going to "decline" there.

:lol Below 5000 a month-and-a-week from now.

[Spurminator]

Iwhich to be fair, did have some useful content and challenged the prevailing projections at the time of 60 million infected/2 million dead. Ginn's analysis was correct in that regard.

I didn't read the article you're talking about but were those projections based on the distancing and quarantine precautions taking place? Because we're headed towards 200K dead from this and that's with bar/restaurant closures, school closures and the elimination of a ton of social activity. As a baseline predictor of worst case scenario (the scenario where we close nothing and take no measures) it doesn't seem that unreasonable to me.

[Spurtacular]

https://covidplanningtools.com/florida-second-wave-analysis/


The second wave will rapidly decline over the summer and the virus is likely to die out without the need for vaccine if behavior continues to be modulated by risk.

:lol Shysters never gonna let that happen.

TheGreatYacht

[midnightpulp]

I didn't read the article you're talking about but were those projections based on the distancing and quarantine precautions taking place? Because we're headed towards 200K dead from this and that's with bar/restaurant closures, school closures and the elimination of a ton of social activity. As a baseline predictor of worst case scenario (the scenario where we close nothing and take no measures) it doesn't seem that unreasonable to me.

I don't think this virus is that lethal to kill that many. Remember, the hidden part of the infection iceberg is probably 10x the official case count, meaning the US has had 30 million infected already. The Imperial study was assuming an IFR of around 3 percent.

If we reach 60 million infected, we could be looking at 400K deaths likely.

[SpursforSix]

I don't think this virus is that lethal to kill that many. Remember, the hidden part of the infection iceberg is probably 10x the official case count, meaning the US has had 30 million infected already. The Imperial study was assuming an IFR of around 3 percent.

If we reach 60 million infected, we could be looking at 400K deaths likely.

Agree with this. Combined with the fact that around 1/3 of the deaths is from nursing homes, I don't think the fatality rate is anywhere near as high as reported.
Not taking into account the long term effects if those are significant.

[TSA]

They're not being honest, but their reporting has more truth than Hart's omission, which is more glaring, since those recent case and death spikes do suggest Florida's situation is accelerating, not improving.

They are even more dishonest since they have the actual data and are misrepresenting it by omitting the backlog. You are saying Hart is being more dishonest based on speculation into the future.

[TSA]

Even Marco Rubio gets it. This is why, "Let the young people do their thing and get infected" is a retarded idea. The virus will eventually find its way to the older population, no matter how hard they try to isolate.

1277634378093473792

Florida has already done an excellent job protecting their older population especially considering how big of an elderly population they have. How many months has it been now since they were supposed to be the next New York?

[midnightpulp]

Florida has already done an excellent job protecting their older population especially considering how big of an elderly population they have. How many months has it been now since they were supposed to be the next New York?

So, you think "at least we're not New York!" is a worthy goal?

They're about a 3rd of the way there to Italy's death rate, and trending up. Remember when avoiding Italy's situation was "the goal?"

[midnightpulp]

They are even more dishonest since they have the actual data and are misrepresenting it by omitting the backlog. You are saying Hart is being more dishonest based on speculation into the future.

You really believe Florida is going to magically flatten their death rate from the recent spikes (which again, are from when their positive rate, median age, and case count were all lower), don't you?

And I'm calling out Hart because he's supposed to be a data guy. He should know all the data for Florida suggests a rising death count in the coming weeks. Some "truther." He's simply another Libertarian tech bro who wants business as usual for the sake of the market/his investments.

[TSA]

You really believe Florida is going to magically flatten their death rate from the recent spikes (which again, are from when their positive rate, median age, and case count were all lower), don't you?

And I'm calling out Hart because he's supposed to be a data guy. He should know all the data for Florida suggests a rising death count in the coming weeks. Some "truther." He's simply another Libertarian tech bro who wants business as usual for the sake of the market/his investments.

I'm optimistic the worst is behind us.

[ChumpDumper]

Pizza parlor child sex dungeon guy says all is well.

[baseline bum]

I'm optimistic the worst is behind us.

Why would you ever think that when we're at our worst infection rate of the pandemic right now and growing fast?

[midnightpulp]

And TSA, really, FUCK Hart, Ginn, Berenson, Ethical Skeptic, Levitt and the whole Team Reality contingent. The health officials kept telling us what the best plan of attack was. Lockdown, stay-at-home, whatever you want to call it to not just flatten the curve, but knock the R0 down to such an extent that we could safely FULLY reopen in two months, but with mitigation strategies in place like mask wearing, test-and-trace, and just being cautious. And these assholes were complaining and being "truthers" about the lockdown as early as mid March. Dipshit Hart projected we'd see only like 12K deaths or something.

They stirred up like minds and I'm sure some their work found its way onto the screens of politicians who were just desperate to reopen. Look at the R0's of countries who've killed their curves (scroll down a bit).

https://covid19-projections.com/denmark (no "herd immunity needed")
https://covid19-projections.com/germany
https://covid19-projections.com/norway
https://covid19-projections.com/australia
https://covid19-projections.com/ireland

These countries (which didn't need any idiotic "herd immunity" strategy) flattened their R0 in the .70-.60 ranges for months. When you get to an R0 below 1.00, you can actually snuff out the virus if you keep it there for some time. The US was only able to get it around .90 for a month, which just wasn't low enough to suppress new cases when the eventual reopening would happen. Not to mention, we're not equipped with the collective psychology (Freedumbs resisting mask wearing and insisting on filling public places, like bars and Trump rallies) and a test/trace program to keep that R0 in check.

And I blame these "truthers" for contributing to much of that psychology.

[midnightpulp]

Why would you ever think that when we're at our worst infection rate of the pandemic right now and growing fast?

New York and NJ were rather special cases. Even without the nursing home situation, those regions would've still contributed about 40K deaths. I'm sure TSA is banking on the fact that all the current hot spots don't have the population density of those regions, and pop density does play a role. Not to mention cases are skewing younger and we're a bit better at treating it now.

We might not have another "worst" on the level of the April peak, but we're definitely headed for an Italy level situation. What an achievement!

[baseline bum]

New York and NJ were rather special cases. Even without the nursing home situation, those regions would've still contributed about 40K deaths. I'm sure TSA is banking on the fact that all the current hot spots don't have the population density of those regions, and pop density does play a role. Not to mention cases are skewing younger and we're a bit better at treating it now.

We might not have another "worst" on the level of the April peak, but we're definitely headed for an Italy level situation. What an achievement!

NY and NJ locked down. TX, AZ, FLA probably won't. Not to mention most other states are having their daily infections growing also. Osterholm still had the US at only a 5% infection rate 3 weeks ago right as the great red state spike was starting, and he is the one expert whose projections have been spot on so far. We likely have a long way to go with this and I'd be floored if March-April will be looked at as the worst part of the pandemic in a couple of years once this is mostly over.

[midnightpulp]

NY and NJ locked down. TX, AZ, FLA probably won't. Not to mention most other states are having their daily infections growing also. Osterholm still had the US at only a 5% infection rate 3 weeks ago right as the great red state spike was starting, and he is the one expert whose projections have been spot on so far. We likely have a long way to go with this and I'd be floored if March-April will be looked at as the worst part of the pandemic in a couple of years once this is mostly over.

It really depends on how well older people can avoid it. Remember, New York likely got seeded around late February/early March when Covid was still a Chinese/Italy problem, so older people were out and about just the same. Presumably, older people are being as cautious as possible and the median age of infected shows that so far.

But these are also Red States, where older people probably make up a great deal of the "covid skeptics," so who knows. Also, I think viral load might be lesser in these states. In high density pops, they basically move from crowded space to crowded space, i.e. subway to small apartment housing 6 family members. More exposure=more viral load=more serious cases.

[TSA]

Why would you ever think that when we're at our worst infection rate of the pandemic right now and growing fast?

People being infected now are younger and healthier, people going into the hospitals aren't as sick and are being released quicker, and doctors understand the virus more and are able to give better care to those coming in sick. We also aren't sending covid positive patients back into nursing homes.

[ChumpDumper]

People being infected now are younger and healthier, people going into the hospitals aren't as sick and are being released quicker, and doctors understand the virus more and are able to give better care to those coming in sick. We also aren't sending covid positive patients back into nursing homes.Here's the new COVID ward they just set up in Weslaco:

https://d31029zd06w0t6.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/60/2020/07/IMG_5741.jpeg

All is well.

[TimDunkem]

lmao As if better treatments means much when you're at the point where hospitals can't keep up with the infection rates exploding all over the country and you still want to throw gasoline on the fire. :lol

[TSA]

And TSA, really, FUCK Hart, Ginn, Berenson, Ethical Skeptic, Levitt and the whole Team Reality contingent. The health officials kept telling us what the best plan of attack was. Lockdown, stay-at-home, whatever you want to call it to not just flatten the curve, but knock the R0 down to such an extent that we could safely FULLY reopen in two months, but with mitigation strategies in place like mask wearing, test-and-trace, and just being cautious. And these assholes were complaining and being "truthers" about the lockdown as early as mid March. Dipshit Hart projected we'd see only like 12K deaths or something.

They stirred up like minds and I'm sure some their work found its way onto the screens of politicians who were just desperate to reopen. Look at the R0's of countries who've killed their curves (scroll down a bit).

https://covid19-projections.com/denmark (no "herd immunity needed")
https://covid19-projections.com/germany
https://covid19-projections.com/norway
https://covid19-projections.com/australia
https://covid19-projections.com/ireland

These countries (which didn't need any idiotic "herd immunity" strategy) flattened their R0 in the .70-.60 ranges for months. When you get to an R0 below 1.00, you can actually snuff out the virus if you keep it there for some time. The US was only able to get it around .90 for a month, which just wasn't low enough to suppress new cases when the eventual reopening would happen. Not to mention, we're not equipped with the collective psychology (Freedumbs resisting mask wearing and insisting on filling public places, like bars and Trump rallies) and a test/trace program to keep that R0 in check.

And I blame these "truthers" for contributing to much of that psychology.

Why leave off Sweden who also killed their curve?

https://covid19-projections.com/sweden

[TimDunkem]

Here's the new COVID ward they just set up in Weslaco:

https://d31029zd06w0t6.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/60/2020/07/IMG_5741.jpeg

All is well.
If nurses and military personnel weren't already coming in to SA from across the country we would've probably opened up the Freeman by now.

[baseline bum]

People being infected now are younger and healthier, people going into the hospitals aren't as sick and are being released quicker, and doctors understand the virus more and are able to give better care to those coming in sick. We also aren't sending covid positive patients back into nursing homes.

So there are no old people outside of the early infection hotspots in NYC / Detroit / New Orleans / Boston? Unless there is a really early vaccine there is likely no way out of this pandemic other than 70% of the nation getting the virus. The fact deaths were pretty centralized into a few cities in the March-April peak tells you it hadn't spread much to the rest of the nation by then. But here it comes now in the places spared then. And I strongly doubt New York is out of the water either, once they reopen they'll probably start blowing up again too. This pandemic is still really only four months old on US soil, long long way to go most likely.

[ChumpDumper]

Why leave off Sweden who also killed their curve?

https://covid19-projections.com/swedenI guess if we wanted to be at 200,000 deaths instead of 136,000 right now we could include Sweden as a shining example.

[midnightpulp]

Why leave off Sweden who also killed their curve?

https://covid19-projections.com/sweden

It cost them the equivalent of 180,000 deaths if their population was the size of ours. I picked countries that kept their death toll low while crushing the curve.

Sweden may very well have herd immunity. The epidemiologist Natalie Dean brought up a great point that the herd immunity threshold isn't the same for every country/region. The herd immunity threshold is said to be 70 percent, but you can create a lower threshold for yourself if you mitigate. Maybe 30 percent of the pop gets infected, but if the rest of the pop is wearing masks, avoiding public gatherings, and being cautious, the virus will still have trouble finding new infections and might die out.

This is why I don't think the Swedish strategy will work here. For one, 50 percent of their households are single person. They effectively social distance naturally. I think more work from home than anywhere else in Europe. They don't seem to have a rabid pub/bar culture like the US/UK. Not very religious, so they won't be packing churches like here. And they're just a more well behaved society while we have people here challenging mask orders and throwing Covid parties.

Not taking a shot at you, but people need to stop using Sweden as a model for the US.

[pgardn]

Honestly there are really no tricks as I see it.
Its bald face intentional misrepresentation and lying.

[Blake]

BTW I'm not saying that 100% of what the government and media says is false. I'm just saying that you'll be a lot closer to the truth if you follow my advice.

:lmao

[TheGreatYacht]

:lol Shysters never gonna let that happen.

TheGreatYacht

Chumpettes jerk each other off 24/7 to their covid fear porn

[ChumpDumper]

Chumpettes jerk each other off 24/7 to their covid fear pornTell us what the plan is in your own words.

[TSA]

It cost them the equivalent of 180,000 deaths if their population was the size of ours. I picked countries that kept their death toll low while crushing the curve.

Sweden may very well have herd immunity. The epidemiologist Natalie Dean brought up a great point that the herd immunity threshold isn't the same for every country/region. The herd immunity threshold is said to be 70 percent, but you can create a lower threshold for yourself if you mitigate. Maybe 30 percent of the pop gets infected, but if the rest of the pop is wearing masks, avoiding public gatherings, and being cautious, the virus will still have trouble finding new infections and might die out.

This is why I don't think the Swedish strategy will work here. For one, 50 percent of their households are single person. They effectively social distance naturally. I think more work from home than anywhere else in Europe. They don't seem to have a rabid pub/bar culture like the US/UK. Not very religious, so they won't be packing churches like here. And they're just a more well behaved society while we have people here challenging mask orders and throwing Covid parties.

Not taking a shot at you, but people need to stop using Sweden as a model for the US.

I don't think it would work here either was just curious why you left them off considering they flattened their curve.

[pgardn]

Chumpettes jerk each other off 24/7 to their covid fear porn

Says the guy who has pictures of Chews in shackles to engorge his parts.

[RandomGuy]

It cost them the equivalent of 180,000 deaths if their population was the size of ours. I picked countries that kept their death toll low while crushing the curve.

Sweden may very well have herd immunity. The epidemiologist Natalie Dean brought up a great point that the herd immunity threshold isn't the same for every country/region. The herd immunity threshold is said to be 70 percent, but you can create a lower threshold for yourself if you mitigate. Maybe 30 percent of the pop gets infected, but if the rest of the pop is wearing masks, avoiding public gatherings, and being cautious, the virus will still have trouble finding new infections and might die out.

This is why I don't think the Swedish strategy will work here. For one, 50 percent of their households are single person. They effectively social distance naturally. I think more work from home than anywhere else in Europe. They don't seem to have a rabid pub/bar culture like the US/UK. Not very religious, so they won't be packing churches like here. And they're just a more well behaved society while we have people here challenging mask orders and throwing Covid parties.

Not taking a shot at you, but people need to stop using Sweden as a model for the US.

One of the better points made here.

It also suggests to me that "herd immunity" will be a moving target, as restrictions are opened up.

[TheGreatYacht]

Question for Chumpettes: How does COVID19 choose who to infect? How come the poor, homeless, dirty street people, rebels, bush people, villagers are not sick?

Spurtacular, this is a virus like we never seen before.

[Spurtacular]

Question for Chumpettes: How does COVID19 choose who to infect? How come the poor, homeless, dirty street people, rebels, bush people, villagers are not sick?

Spurtacular (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=49615), this is a virus like we never seen before.

:cry No evidence :cry
ElNono

[CosmicCowboy]

Question for Chumpettes: How does COVID19 choose who to infect? How come the poor, homeless, dirty street people, rebels, bush people, villagers are not sick?

Spurtacular, this is a virus like we never seen before.

Most of them smell so bad no one will get within six feet of them.

[SnakeBoy]

NY and NJ locked down. TX, AZ, FLA probably won't. Not to mention most other states are having their daily infections growing also. Osterholm still had the US at only a 5% infection rate 3 weeks ago right as the great red state spike was starting, and he is the one expert whose projections have been spot on so far. We likely have a long way to go with this and I'd be floored if March-April will be looked at as the worst part of the pandemic in a couple of years once this is mostly over.

Just wait until fall/winter when conditions favor the virus and every economy has exceeded their ability to just lockdown. We might be calling these past 6 months the good ole days :lol

[Blake]

Question for Chumpettes: How does COVID19 choose who to infect? How come the poor, homeless, dirty street people, rebels, bush people, villagers are not sick?

Spurtacular, this is a virus like we never seen before.

They don't go to church

[Blake]

Most of them smell so bad no one will get within six feet of them.

:lol

[baseline bum]

Just wait until fall/winter when conditions favor the virus and every economy has exceeded their ability to just lockdown. We might be calling these past 6 months the good ole days :lol

Worst thing about Osterholm being mostly right this whole time is when he says don't expect a vaccine for a long time if ever. God if we had 120,000 dead from just 5% infection though... if he wasn't then man we're fucked.

[ElNono]

Question for Chumpettes: How does COVID19 choose who to infect? How come the poor, homeless, dirty street people, rebels, bush people, villagers are not sick?


:cry No evidence :cry

Let's start with that's an easily provable false statement. :lol

Go take a look at the bodies piling up in Ecuador, something hater posted here a while ago, and get back to me.

[Spurtacular]

Let's start with that's an easily provable false statement. :lol

Go take a look at the bodies piling up in Ecuador, something hater (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=7609) posted here a while ago, and get back to me.

:lol We have to go all the way to Ecuador for their scam?
:lol Desperate
:lol TheGreatYacht

[TheGreatYacht]

:lol We have to go all the way to Ecuador for their scam?
:lol Desperate
:lol TheGreatYacht

Chumpettes don't realize that the sociopathic elites control other world governments. Freemasonry is real

NWO = One World Government

[ChumpDumper]

Chumpettes don't realize that the sociopathic elites control other world governments. Freemasonry is real

NWO = One World GovernmentYou can't even say what the plan is in your own words.

[ElNono]

:lol We have to go all the way to Ecuador for their scam?

:lol now "poor, homeless, dirty street people, villagers" of Ecuador doesn't count...
:lol non-stop excuses

[Spurtacular]

:lol now "poor, homeless, dirty street people, villagers" of Ecuador doesn't count...
:lol non-stop excuses

Apparently the poor homeless dirty street Americans don't count...

:lmao

[ChumpDumper]

Apparently the poor homeless dirty street Americans don't count...

:lmaoWhy don't you think the homeless get COVID?

Social media?

Some anonymous YouTube?

[ElNono]

Apparently the poor homeless dirty street Americans don't count...

:lol of course they count. You simply get a better sample rate in a shithole like Ecuador.

The fact that there's no family members posting on Facebook or YouTube about the dead bums in the US is the only reason you didn't hear about it.

[ChumpDumper]

:lol of course they count. You simply get a better sample rate in a shithole like Ecuador.

The fact that there's no family members posting on Facebook or YouTube about the dead bums in the US is the only reason you didn't hear about it.derp's s:lolcial media crutch

[SnakeBoy]

Worst thing about Osterholm being mostly right this whole time is when he says don't expect a vaccine for a long time if ever. God if we had 120,000 dead from just 5% infection though... if he wasn't then man we're fucked.

He seems to be changing his tune. Talking about shutting everything down again to buy time for a vaccine on his weekly podcast. Says we're at 7% now.

[Winehole23]

Just wait until fall/winter when conditions favor the virus and every economy has exceeded their ability to just lockdown. We might be calling these past 6 months the good ole days :lolThat's hilarious.

Are you still pooh-poohing wearing masks as ignorance and superstition?

[baseline bum]

He seems to be changing his tune. Talking about shutting everything down again to buy time for a vaccine on his weekly podcast. Says we're at 7% now.

I'll have to check it out, didn't know he had a podcast going. Did he explain why he thinks we're at 7% infection? Or is he just shooting from the hip? Surprising he would flip so quickly on the likelihood of a vaccine.

[SnakeBoy]

That's hilarious.

Are you still pooh-poohing wearing masks as ignorance and superstition?

I changed my view a bit. Masks are useful in helping people to remember to socially distance. That's why I started wearing a mask again 3-4 weeks ago. They don't offer much in the way of actual protection though.

Real world examples make it clear.

Social distance with or without a mask works

Not socially distancing with or without a mask does not work

[baseline bum]

He seems to be changing his tune. Talking about shutting everything down again to buy time for a vaccine on his weekly podcast. Says we're at 7% now.

Wow Osterholm has completely flipped the script on what I had heard before from him.

[SnakeBoy]

I'll have to check it out, didn't know he had a podcast going. Did he explain why he thinks we're at 7% infection? Or is he just shooting from the hip? Surprising he would flip so quickly on the likelihood of a vaccine.

I didn't hear him explain the 7% but I haven't listened to the whole episode yet

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/podcasts-webinars/episode-15

[Winehole23]

I changed my view a bit. Masks are useful in helping people to remember to socially distance. That's why I started wearing a mask again 3-4 weeks ago. They don't offer much in the way of actual protection though.

Real world examples make it clear.

Social distance with or without a mask works

Not socially distancing with or without a mask does not workAppreciate the clarification. What's your source for your apparent claim that there's no epidemiological benefit to mask wearing except to psych people into social distancing?


A recent study published in Health Affairs, for example, compared the COVID-19 growth rate before and after mask mandates in 15 states and the District of Columbia. It found that mask mandates led to a slowdown in daily COVID-19 growth rate, which became more apparent over time. The first five days after a mandate, the daily growth rate slowed by 0.9 percentage-points compared to the five days prior to the mandate; at three weeks, the daily growth rate had slowed by 2 percentage-points.https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/06/417906/still-confused-about-masks-heres-science-behind-how-face-masks-prevent

[Warlord23]

The US is the only "developed" country on this planet where there is an argument still going on about masks. It is sad to see.

Take the case of this guy (https://www.cleveland19.com/2020/07/10/year-old-port-clinton-war-vet-dies-covid-complications-fourth-july/) - war veteran who was working to prevent suicide among veterans. Dies of Covid-19 in the prime of his life, months after publicly refusing to wear a mask.

Imaging fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan, wearing a ton of gear in that heat, surviving and returning home, only to die because he didn't want the inconvenience of a mask.

[Warlord23]

This also kills the myth that Trump is a competent businessman. The idiot could have put his MAGA logo on masks and made money off his blind followers. His stupidity and obstinacy are way bigger than his smarts

[baseline bum]

I changed my view a bit. Masks are useful in helping people to remember to socially distance. That's why I started wearing a mask again 3-4 weeks ago. They don't offer much in the way of actual protection though.

Real world examples make it clear.

Social distance with or without a mask works

Not socially distancing with or without a mask does not work

I know Osterholm is pretty convinced it's aerosol and not droplet transmission that's getting people infected, but how do you explain Japan then and their lack of terrible outbreaks? Because all Japan did was shut down schools in March and wear masks. If transmission is mostly aerosol instead of via droplets wouldn't you logically expect them to have had a wildfire breakout at some point? They were one of the earliest seeded places on Earth.

[baseline bum]

The US is the only "developed" country on this planet where there is an argument still going on about masks. It is sad to see.

Take the case of this guy (https://www.cleveland19.com/2020/07/10/year-old-port-clinton-war-vet-dies-covid-complications-fourth-july/) - war veteran who was working to prevent suicide among veterans. Dies of Covid-19 in the prime of his life, months after publicly refusing to wear a mask.

Imaging fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan, wearing a ton of gear in that heat, surviving and returning home, only to die because he didn't want the inconvenience of a mask.

We're also the only developed country on this planet where there is an argument about universal healthcare. Only one where there is an argument about guns. Only one where there is an argument about global warming. And so on... we're a banana republic.

[SnakeBoy]

Appreciate the clarification. What's your source for your apparent claim that there's no epidemiological benefit to mask wearing except to psych people into social distancing?

https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/06/417906/still-confused-about-masks-heres-science-behind-how-face-masks-prevent

There is no place that put in mask mandates without emphasizing distancing.

In the real world SA had community spread in February. People weren't wearing masks but were scared as shit so they distanced. We did not have major outbreak until people let their guard down.

You can't get a more mask compliant country and yet they just put 500k people on a hard lock down.

Distancing works with/without masks

Not distancing does not work with/without a mask.


but how do you explain Japan then and their lack of terrible outbreaks? Because all Japan did was shut down schools in March and wear masks.

No they distanced better than we have. Better messaging than the do your normal shit but just stay 6ft apart.

https://www.businessinsider.com/how-japan-tackled-coronavirus-without-a-lockdown-2020-5


Wow Osterholm has completely flipped the script on what I had heard before from him.

Yeah it quite the flip. Maybe his professional reputation was taking a hit every time he correctly said "We're not riding this tiger, it's riding us".

[baseline bum]

No they distanced better than we have. Better messaging than the do your normal shit but just stay 6ft apart.

https://www.businessinsider.com/how-japan-tackled-coronavirus-without-a-lockdown-2020-5


I'm not buying that at all. Tokyo and many other Japanese cities have unbelievably jam packed trains. Even when they're not fully loaded in the pandemic they're still not anywhere near empty, they still look pretty full by American standards. One thing Japanese don't do on trains though is talk... at all, period. So not nearly as much opportunity to create / breathe in droplets as say riding the NY subway where people talk to each other, talk on cell phones, and so on. If it just aerosol transmission instead of droplets wouldn't you expect a huge number of infections from subway riders just from normal breathing? Those particles would be light enough to be spread by simple exhalation when breathing wouldn't they? And they won't be caught by surgical masks. People aren't wearing N95 masks out there.

[ChumpDumper]

I'm not buying that at all. Tokyo and many other Japanese cities have unbelievably jam packed trains. Even when they're not fully loaded in the pandemic they're still not anywhere near empty, they still look pretty full by American standards. One thing Japanese don't do on trains though is talk... at all, period. So not nearly as much opportunity to create / breathe in droplets as say riding the NY subway where people talk to each other, talk on cell phones, and so on. If it just aerosol transmission instead of droplets wouldn't you expect a huge number of infections from subway riders just from normal breathing? Those particles would be light enough to be spread by simple exhalation when breathing wouldn't they? And they won't be caught by surgical masks. People aren't wearing N95 masks out there.Maybe Asians distance in the metric system so they don't have to be as far apart?

https://www.gannett-cdn.com/presto/2020/05/27/PDTN/673b7a79-9c92-4d62-81e4-c1b791727ca5-AP20147054352310.jpg

https://www.deccanherald.com/sites/dh/files/article_images/2020/05/19/japan%20recession-1038144284-1589770034.jpg

[baseline bum]

I like that claim that Japanese speakers eject fewer droplets though, that one cracked me up the first time I heard it. I watch a lot of Japanese TV and saw that story a couple of weeks ago where they'd say something in English forcefully and you'd see this flag they spoke into go flying up, then they'd meekly say something in Japanese and the thing would barely move. It's kind of laughable because Japanese has some very hard consonant sounds that are heavily used. Like when you're talking past tense casually your sentence will usually end with かった and that った = tta is a pretty hard consonant sound. Almost anything you would say in the past tense would end with that った since the verb is at the end of almost every sentence in Japanese (sometimes you omit the verb).

It's the one thing I really doubt Osterholm on after seeing how little Japan has been affected despite their government doing very very little in mitigation.

[DMC]

The US is the only "developed" country on this planet where there is an argument still going on about masks. It is sad to see.

Take the case of this guy (https://www.cleveland19.com/2020/07/10/year-old-port-clinton-war-vet-dies-covid-complications-fourth-july/) - war veteran who was working to prevent suicide among veterans. Dies of Covid-19 in the prime of his life, months after publicly refusing to wear a mask.

Imaging fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan, wearing a ton of gear in that heat, surviving and returning home, only to die because he didn't want the inconvenience of a mask.

Now you're saying the mask prevents contracting the disease? Seems to be a different story than before, where it prevented some spreading, not contracting though.

[DMC]

I like that claim that Japanese speakers eject fewer droplets though, that one cracked me up the first time I heard it. I watch a lot of Japanese TV and saw that story a couple of weeks ago where they'd say something in English forcefully and you'd see this flag they spoke into go flying up, then they'd meekly say something in Japanese and the thing would barely move. It's kind of laughable because Japanese has some very hard consonant sounds that are heavily used. Like when you're talking past tense casually your sentence will usually end with かった and that った = tta is a pretty hard consonant sound. Almost anything you would say in the past tense would end with that った since the verb is at the end of almost every sentence in Japanese (sometimes you omit the verb).

It's the one thing I really doubt Osterholm on after seeing how little Japan has been affected despite their government doing very very little in mitigation.

And rioters, they also don't spread the disease.

[DMC]

I'm not buying that at all. Tokyo and many other Japanese cities have unbelievably jam packed trains. Even when they're not fully loaded in the pandemic they're still not anywhere near empty, they still look pretty full by American standards. One thing Japanese don't do on trains though is talk... at all, period. So not nearly as much opportunity to create / breathe in droplets as say riding the NY subway where people talk to each other, talk on cell phones, and so on. If it just aerosol transmission instead of droplets wouldn't you expect a huge number of infections from subway riders just from normal breathing? Those particles would be light enough to be spread by simple exhalation when breathing wouldn't they? And they won't be caught by surgical masks. People aren't wearing N95 masks out there.

Don't think Japanese live 30 to a household like some of the minorities in NY do.

[baseline bum]

Don't think Japanese live 30 to a household like some of the minorities in NY do.

Tokyo's density makes New York City look like it's Hondo.

[DMC]

Tokyo's density makes New York City look like it's Hondo.

Pretty sure Japan has a lower members per household number than the US. Tokyo has 1.9 members per household. Some areas in NYC have as high as 3 and the US averages about 2.6. South Korea has a higher population density than Texas, with 14% the land mass of Texas yet twice the population. Yet they are a shining example of Valhalla.

[baseline bum]

Pretty sure Japan has a lower members per household number than the US. Tokyo has 1.9 members per household. Some areas in NYC have as high as 3 and the US averages about 2.6. South Korea has a higher population density than Texas, with 14% the land mass of Texas yet twice the population. Yet they are a shining example of Valhalla.

How many people do you think people living in Tokyo ride the train with? Also if that's your argument how does that shoot down the case for masks since infection in the home is happening without using masks? What do you think is the reason Japan isn't getting ravaged by this virus? Or are they lying like South Korea?

[baseline bum]

And rioters, they also don't spread the disease.

If they did Abbott would be shouting it from the rooftops.

[ChumpDumper]

Texas had 10,000 new cases yesterday.

South Korea had 45.

Yep, it's definitely the lower density in Texas that is keeping its case count low.

[TimDunkem]

Texas had 10,000 new cases yesterday.

South Korea had 45.

Yep, it's definitely the lower density in Texas that is keeping its case count low.

Another 10,000 today too.

[ChumpDumper]

Another 10,000 today too.That's rivaling New York in April. Fortunately we won't reach their death numbers, but ours are almost guaranteed to get worse. This sucks.

[Splits]

How many people do you think people living in Tokyo ride the train with? Also if that's your argument how does that shoot down the case for masks since infection in the home is happening without using masks? What do you think is the reason Japan isn't getting ravaged by this virus? Or are they lying like South Korea?

Always love an opportunity to post these:


https://youtu.be/33qxTMA9XTA


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o9Xg7ui5mLA


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E7kor5nHtZQ

[baseline bum]

Always love an opportunity to post these:


https://youtu.be/33qxTMA9XTA


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o9Xg7ui5mLA


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E7kor5nHtZQ

Molestor's dream though... funny the word for molestor is 痴漢 = chikan, whose kanji literally mean stupid + Chinese :lol

[Splits]

Molestor's dream though... funny the word for molestor is 痴漢 = chikan, whose kanji literally mean stupid + Chinese :lol

Not related, but first time I visited Tokyo I still smoked, and I was walking through the city burning a cig without thinking twice. I'm also 6'3" and white as fuck, so you stand out like a nun in a whorehouse... not a single person said anything to me, avoided eye contact even though they were intrigued as fuck (very homogeneous city, no Westerners can be seen outside 100ft of a hotel). Well, turns out smoking is illegal in public, unless you're huddled around a public ashtray, which usually have like 300 people around them... they smoke a lot.

Other fucked up thing is there are no public trash cans. City is clean as fuck, littering is basically unseen, but you can't find a place to throw you coffee cup unless you go into a restaurant, office, or your home.

[baseline bum]

Not related, but first time I visited Tokyo I still smoked, and I was walking through the city burning a cig without thinking twice. I'm also 6'3" and white as fuck, so you stand out like a nun in a whorehouse... not a single person said anything to me, avoided eye contact even though they were intrigued as fuck (very homogeneous city, no Westerners can be seen outside 100ft of a hotel). Well, turns out smoking is illegal in public, unless you're huddled around a public ashtray, which usually have like 300 people around them... they smoke a lot.

Other fucked up thing is there are no public trash cans. City is clean as fuck, littering is basically unseen, but you can't find a place to throw you coffee cup unless you go into a restaurant, office, or your home.

And if you can say anything whatsoever in Japanese everyone will tell you 日本語上手 = nihongo jouzu = you're skilled in Japanese :lol

[ElNono]

Not related, but first time I visited Tokyo I still smoked, and I was walking through the city burning a cig without thinking twice. I'm also 6'3" and white as fuck, so you stand out like a nun in a whorehouse... not a single person said anything to me, avoided eye contact even though they were intrigued as fuck (very homogeneous city, no Westerners can be seen outside 100ft of a hotel). Well, turns out smoking is illegal in public, unless you're huddled around a public ashtray, which usually have like 300 people around them... they smoke a lot.

Other fucked up thing is there are no public trash cans. City is clean as fuck, littering is basically unseen, but you can't find a place to throw you coffee cup unless you go into a restaurant, office, or your home.

lol... and don't forget the 'san' after every name, tbh... big deal there.

[baseline bum]

lol... and don't forget the 'san' after every name, tbh... big deal there.

and say んじゃん nzhaan or njaan at the end of every sentence to sound like a 15 year old

[Splits]

lol... and don't forget the 'san' after every name, tbh... big deal there.

omg in emails too...

[SnakeBoy]

I'm not buying that at all. Tokyo and many other Japanese cities have unbelievably jam packed trains. Even when they're not fully loaded in the pandemic they're still not anywhere near empty, they still look pretty full by American standards. One thing Japanese don't do on trains though is talk... at all, period. So not nearly as much opportunity to create / breathe in droplets as say riding the NY subway where people talk to each other, talk on cell phones, and so on. If it just aerosol transmission instead of droplets wouldn't you expect a huge number of infections from subway riders just from normal breathing? Those particles would be light enough to be spread by simple exhalation when breathing wouldn't they? And they won't be caught by surgical masks. People aren't wearing N95 masks out there.

Well I'm not buying that at all. They say this virus doesn't transmit well via surface contact and you're saying it isn't airborne. If it only spreads easily through person to person droplet transmission then it's less efficient than ebola. I'd say that is a pretty far fetched idea.

Not worth debating though. The mask debate is over, everyone is wearing them. If masks are the answer then we won't see big outbreaks anymore. Let's see what happens here and around the globe over the next 6-12 months. My money is still on the virus is just doing what it does and we're just flapping our arms in the winds pretending we are in control.

In the article I linked it gives some other theories why Japan has been spared so far. Here's some more in this article.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53188847

One dude says they have immunity from a previous unidentified coronavirus outbreak while the Prime Minister just says it's because they are the superior race :lol

[baseline bum]

Well I'm not buying that at all. They say this virus doesn't transmit well via surface contact and you're saying it isn't airborne. If it only spreads easily through person to person droplet transmission then it's less efficient than ebola. I'd say that is a pretty far fetched idea.

Not worth debating though. The mask debate is over, everyone is wearing them. If masks are the answer then we won't see big outbreaks anymore. Let's see what happens here and around the globe over the next 6-12 months. My money is still on the virus is just doing what it does and we're just flapping our arms in the winds pretending we are in control.

In the article I linked it gives some other theories why Japan has been spared so far. Here's some more in this article.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53188847

One dude says they have immunity from a previous unidentified coronavirus outbreak while the Prime Minister just says it's because they are the superior race :lol

The rules of the three C's are all broken by commuting on the subway though. I find it really hard to believe the masks aren't a large part of their success. If it was just luck with timing it would have surely caught up with them a little later. And Japanese master race :lol need to remind them of Midway tbh.

[Warlord23]

This research (https://www.psypost.org/2020/07/covidiot-study-lower-cognitive-ability-linked-to-non-compliance-with-social-distancing-guidelines-during-the-coronavirus-outbreak-57293) answers the question of why Trump cultists are also likely to be Covidiots

[tholdren]

It all stated with that Aaron Ginn Medium article posted in mid-March, which to be fair, did have some useful content and challenged the prevailing projections at the time of 60 million infected/2 million dead. Ginn's analysis was correct in that regard. But since then, Ginn, among other truthers, led by a pulp novelist named Alex Berenson have went off the reservation with their denial and have sadly manipulated the tholdren's of the world along with more reasonable people (like TSA) into believing Covid "isn't that bad" and/or that we have already crushed the curve. So they conclude that any headline claiming Covid deaths are rising is simply "fear mongering" by the mainstream media.

This is the primary data they use.

https://i.imgur.com/QSs8Rpf.png

What you're looking it is the weekly death toll from the CDC. The "truthers" will plot on a graph like this and then say, "See. Look how we've flattened!"

Big image, so I'll just post the link.

https://imgur.com/9hk4HlY

What this image is illustrating is the difference between the time the deaths actually occurred and when they were added to the various data tracking sites that the media use to report daily deaths. On July 4th, you can see the difference between the CDC (orange bar) and the Covidtracking project's (blue bar) count. The reason for the former's higher count is because backlogged cases that happened weeks or months ago are finally getting tallied. So with this, the truthers conclude that daily deaths are being grossly over-reported and there's really no spike happening at all! It's just backlogged data finally being added.

But what they fail to omit is that the CDC only counts deaths when they receive an OFFICIAL death certificate. How long does it take to get a death certificate?



Boiled down. The CDC's data lags by weeks, maybe months, since death certificates can sometimes take months. "Team reality" fell for this phenomenon before when they were sharing this popular image.

https://i.imgur.com/MBOAWge.png

And what happened when the data caught up?

https://i.imgur.com/lFqW2iL.png

This twitter user sums it up:

1281305434520014849

Lol. And here comes the 180. You realize that the covid "truthers" point is that you cannot justify lockdown or count pandemic using backlogged deaths.

Why?

Because for months you have stated that daily deaths meant that the pandemic was still going strong.

This is actually 3 month old news. It has just taken you this long to understand this reporting problem.

Shocking that you just now understand this.

No one fails to "omit" anything other than states fail to omit timely data.

Just wait until you understand case count and nosocomial issues.

[midnightpulp]

Lol. And here comes the 180. You realize that the covid "truthers" point is that you cannot justify lockdown or count pandemic using backlogged deaths.

Why?

Because for months you have stated that daily deaths meant that the pandemic was still going strong.

This is actually 3 month old news. It has just taken you this long to understand this reporting problem.

Shocking that you just now understand this.

No one fails to "omit" anything other than states fail to omit timely data.

Just wait until you understand case count and nosocomial issues.

See that tweet of "How many times has this being explained to them? Their skulls are so thick that even a diamond drill couldn't get through."

That is you.

Anyhow, yes you fuckin' can justify lockdowns with alarming increases in deaths over a 7 day moving average, especially if case counts and hospitalizations are tracking with those increasing deaths. You seem to believe that ALL recent deaths are backlogged deaths just now added. No. Some recent deaths are also being added.

Example. Let's say Texas had a 7 day average of 50 deaths between May 7-14. Or 350 deaths over that week. 300 were from backlogs while 50 were from that week. Texas's moving 7 day is 82, or around 560 deaths per week. If 300 were from backlogs and 260 from that week, then the death total going up is being driven entirely by new deaths based on how they report the data. It's not being driven by backlogs. But yeah, keep believing this peak is being driven entirely by backlogs and doesn't forecast a trend. You'd have to be stuck on stupid to believe that an increased positive rate (Texas was reporting about an 8 percent positive rate as month ago vs. around a 20 percent positive rate over this past week) and increased hospitalizations aren't going to translate into more deaths. This spike just didn't come out of nowhere.

https://i.imgur.com/T7INH4k.png

Texas's hospitalization curve. Look how linear the case, hospitalization, and death curves are tracking.

https://i.imgur.com/b3d9JPI.png

What do I always tell you? Wear a mask, stay home, and maybe write Abbott to get more forceful with a lockdown strategy. "Muh Freedumbs" has sent Texas into exponential territory.

[tholdren]

See that tweet of "How many times has this being explained to them? Their skulls are so thick that even a diamond drill couldn't get through."

That is you.

Anyhow, yes you fuckin' can justify lockdowns with alarming increases in deaths over a 7 day moving average, especially if case counts and hospitalizations are tracking with those increasing deaths. You seem to believe that ALL recent deaths are backlogged deaths just now added. No. Some recent deaths are also being added.

Example. Let's say Texas had a 7 day average of 50 deaths between May 7-14. Or 350 deaths over that week. 300 were from backlogs while 50 were from that week. Texas's moving 7 day is 82, or around 560 deaths per week. If 300 were from backlogs and 260 from that week, then the death total going up is being driven entirely by new deaths based on how they report the data. It's not being driven by backlogs. But yeah, keep believing this peak is being driven entirely by backlogs and doesn't forecast a trend. You'd have to be stuck on stupid to believe that an increased positive rate (Texas was reporting about an 8 percent positive rate as month ago vs. around a 20 percent positive rate over this past week) and increased hospitalizations aren't going to translate into more deaths. This spike just didn't come out of nowhere.

https://i.imgur.com/T7INH4k.png

Texas's hospitalization curve. Look how linear the case, hospitalization, and death curves are tracking.

https://i.imgur.com/b3d9JPI.png

What do I always tell you? Wear a mask, stay home, and maybe write Abbott to get more forceful with a lockdown strategy. "Muh Freedumbs" has sent Texas into exponential territory.

Lol no. You cannot. The profanity doesn't rectify your ignorance. But its hilarious to watch you try.

You still can't even determine true hospitalizations, probables, nosocomial, etc. The data you are trying to present in no way fully represents what you think. Which is the point. Locdowns didn't do what you claim, nor can the data you use justify any economic closures.

Lol loud and clear you don't "get it"

Cute thread tho

[tholdren]

See that tweet of "How many times has this being explained to them? Their skulls are so thick that even a diamond drill couldn't get through."

That is you.

Anyhow, yes you fuckin' can justify lockdowns with alarming increases in deaths over a 7 day moving average, especially if case counts and hospitalizations are tracking with those increasing deaths. You seem to believe that ALL recent deaths are backlogged deaths just now added. No. Some recent deaths are also being added.

Example. Let's say Texas had a 7 day average of 50 deaths between May 7-14. Or 350 deaths over that week. 300 were from backlogs while 50 were from that week. Texas's moving 7 day is 82, or around 560 deaths per week. If 300 were from backlogs and 260 from that week, then the death total going up is being driven entirely by new deaths based on how they report the data. It's not being driven by backlogs. But yeah, keep believing this peak is being driven entirely by backlogs and doesn't forecast a trend. You'd have to be stuck on stupid to believe that an increased positive rate (Texas was reporting about an 8 percent positive rate as month ago vs. around a 20 percent positive rate over this past week) and increased hospitalizations aren't going to translate into more deaths. This spike just didn't come out of nowhere.

https://i.imgur.com/T7INH4k.png

Texas's hospitalization curve. Look how linear the case, hospitalization, and death curves are tracking.

https://i.imgur.com/b3d9JPI.png

What do I always tell you? Wear a mask, stay home, and maybe write Abbott to get more forceful with a lockdown strategy. "Muh Freedumbs" has sent Texas into exponential territory.
Also, yes. There are 10s of thousands of undetected cases that are now being reported as ab or suspected positives. This is your out of nowhere cases. But continue and tell us more aboit out of nowhere....

[midnightpulp]

Lol no. You cannot. The profanity doesn't rectify your ignorance. But its hilarious to watch you try.

You still can't even determine true hospitalizations, probables, nosocomial, etc. The data you are trying to present in no way fully represents what you think. Which is the point. Locdowns didn't do what you claim, nor can the data you use justify any economic closures.

Lol loud and clear you don't "get it"

Cute thread tho

Yes, yes, nothing to see here. These spikes are all backlogs and everything is peachy in reality. The constant news reports from various hard hit hospitals were actually written during the Spanish Flu and are now just being released.

Yes or no? Serious cases are actually declining in reality.

The bolded point is a moving target. Justifying an economic lockdown depends on what tradeoffs society is willing to make. For some societies, 10 million deaths might not be enough to justify a lockdown. For others, it might be a 100 deaths.

My feelings. Businesses can be rebuilt. Economies can recover. Dead people can't. Sorry, O'Sheas Bar and Grill going under is less important to me than even a 75 year old getting an extra ten years of life.

"B-B-But all the suicides and despair that the lockdowns will cause." Life expectancy actually rose during the Great Depression.

https://www.history.com/news/great-depression-economy-life-expectancy

[midnightpulp]

Here's how one of the known truthers used the backfill effect to downplay Florida's situation. "Only 413 deaths in July despite all the days of 100+ plus deaths in July. See, backlogs were driving these spikes the evil fear mongering media was telling us were current."

And then the data caught up.

https://i.imgur.com/aLkuIX0.png
TSA

[midnightpulp]

1285573744946221056

[TheGreatYacht]

1285573744946221056

https://i.ibb.co/TmTY97Z/FB-IMG-1595067018410.jpg
https://i.ibb.co/2MqQL1L/FB-IMG-1595345505908.jpg
https://i.ibb.co/5vGrJRf/FB-IMG-1595345559390.jpg

Let that sink in ma nig...

[tholdren]

Here's how one of the known truthers used the backfill effect to downplay Florida's situation. "Only 413 deaths in July despite all the days of 100+ plus deaths in July. See, backlogs were driving these spikes the evil fear mongering media was telling us were current."

And then the data caught up.

https://i.imgur.com/aLkuIX0.png
TSA
Lol you dont even understand case and death count. Keep gossiping