Fivethirtyeight releases its 2020 election forecast model

[Will Hunting]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

Currently has Biden with a 71% chance and Trump with a 29% chance....nearly identical odds going into election day in....wait for it....2016.

Biden needs to get out of the goddamn freezer already.

[Winehole23]

Interesting disclaimer on that forecast.

[TSA]

"I think polls are very, very squishy right now because of the highly toxic political environment in which we live," Gundlach said. Gundlach said he’s come across data suggesting that about "two-thirds of conservatives or moderate conservatives say that they have lied about their support for Donald Trump either directly or by omission."

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/jeffrey-gundlach-says-base-case-is-trump-wins-re-election-215711167.html

[Reck]

But wait! Should you even trust the polls? Hillary Clinton led in the polls in 2016, right? Yes. But Clinton had only a small advantage in most surveys — Trump’s win was well within the range of normal polling error (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-just-a-normal-polling-error-behind-clinton/).

That has been true all along. Biden has been polling at 50% for the majority of the time. If Trump manages to drag Biden or even overcomes that percentage than he clearly deserves his due. He won't.

[ChumpDumper]

:lol TSA counters with billionaire feelings.

[spurraider21]

"I think polls are very, very squishy right now because of the highly toxic political environment in which we live," Gundlach said. Gundlach said he’s come across data suggesting that about "two-thirds of conservatives or moderate conservatives say that they have lied about their support for Donald Trump either directly or by omission."

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/jeffrey-gundlach-says-base-case-is-trump-wins-re-election-215711167.html
denial of peter

[ChumpDumper]

Wait, they took a poll of people asking if they lie to pollsters?

[Will Hunting]

"I think polls are very, very squishy right now because of the highly toxic political environment in which we live," Gundlach said. Gundlach said he’s come across data suggesting that about "two-thirds of conservatives or moderate conservatives say that they have lied about their support for Donald Trump either directly or by omission."

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/jeffrey-gundlach-says-base-case-is-trump-wins-re-election-215711167.html
I read this article too and while a lot of recent polling in the last few weeks doesn't make sense*, but the bolded part is ridiculous. People who identify as Conservative or moderate conservative make up ~40% of the country, if not more. If even half of all conservatives (let alone two thirds) are saying they aren't supporting Trump to pollsters, it'd be at least 20 point polling error in Biden's favor. Every poll that I've read the detail on has 80+% of all people who identify as conservative voting for Trump.

*To clarify, I'm saying that in the sense that it's unclear to me what the error is, it could be a pro Biden or pro Trump error. When the same pollster conducts a poll in Arizona with Biden up 7 points and a poll in Minnesota with Biden up 3 points over the same timeframe, one of them is wrong. Either the poll in Minnesota is slanted for Trump, or the poll in Arizona is slanted for Biden, but there's no way Biden is doing 4 points better in Arizona than he's doing in Minnesota.

[Reck]

I read this article too and while a lot of recent polling in the last few weeks doesn't make sense*, but the bolded part is ridiculous. People who identify as Conservative or moderate conservative make up ~40% of the country, if not more. If even half of all conservatives (let alone two thirds) are saying they aren't supporting Trump to pollsters, it'd be at least 20 point polling error in Biden's favor. Every poll that I've read the detail on has 80+% of all people who identify as conservative voting for Trump.

*To clarify, I'm saying that in the sense that it's unclear to me what the error is, it could be a pro Biden or pro Trump error. When the same pollster conducts a poll in Arizona with Biden up 7 points and a poll in Minnesota with Biden up 3 points over the same timeframe, one of them is wrong. Either the poll in Minnesota is slanted for Trump, or the poll in Arizona is slanted for Biden, but there's no way Biden is doing 4 points better in Arizona than he's doing in Minnesota.

I have seen a bunch of new and unproven pollsters too. Who knows how accurate they are. That adds even more uncertainly.

[Will Hunting]

I have seen a bunch of new and unproven pollsters too. Who knows how accurate they are. That adds even more uncertainly.
The pollster I'm mentioning has an A- rating on fivethirtyeight (Emerson College).

Imo the unanswered question is whether the pollsters have accounted for the outsized rural voter turnout Trump (and as a result down ballot Republicans) get. If the polls we're seeing already account for that, Trump definitely has an uphill battle. If they haven't, then this is a coin flip and Biden should be worried. Even in 2018, the pollsters weren't as inaccurate as 2016 but they still didn't fully account for Trumpsized rural voter turnout. Republicans outperformed polls in states with large pro Trump rural populations (Florida, Ohio, Missouri, Indiana), while Democrats outperformed polls in states with insignificant rural populations (Arizona & Nevada).

[Reck]

The pollster I'm mentioning has an A- rating on fivethirtyeight (Emerson College).

Imo the unanswered question is whether the pollsters have accounted for the outsized rural voter turnout Trump (and as a result down ballot Republicans) get. If the polls we're seeing already account for that, Trump definitely has an uphill battle. If they haven't, then this is a coin flip and Biden should be worried. Even in 2018, the pollsters weren't as inaccurate as 2016 but they still didn't fully account for Trumpsized rural voter turnout. Republicans outperformed polls in states with large pro Trump rural populations (Florida, Ohio, Missouri, Indiana), while Democrats outperformed polls in states with insignificant rural populations (Arizona & Nevada).

There is some comfort then that he has a 9 point lead in Pennsylvania there. But I question the sample size.

Between 600 and 800 people.

I really dont believe that Minnesota poll either. Specially when you consider that the senate race there is a close shave according to the same poll.

[FrostKing]

"I think polls are very, very squishy right now because of the highly toxic political environment in which we live," Gundlach said. Gundlach said he’s come across data suggesting that about "two-thirds of conservatives or moderate conservatives say that they have lied about their support for Donald Trump either directly or by omission."

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/jeffrey-gundlach-says-base-case-is-trump-wins-re-election-215711167.html
Exactly what I've been saying

Silent majority bout to shock again

Flashbacks of 2004

[baseline bum]

Exactly what I've been saying

Silent majority bout to shock again

Flashbacks of 2004

They have been the majority in exactly one presidential election in the last 30 years.

[Will Hunting]

Exactly what I've been saying

Silent majority bout to shock again

Flashbacks of 2004
bovada is currently offering +375 odds for a bet that Republicans win the popular vote. Go put your money where your mouth is if you feel so confident in it.

[Will Hunting]

What's Biden doing to combat Trump's bump in the polls? Gibberish about "marriage equality" and identity politics. Holy fuck the people running the DNC are tone deaf as to what people outside their bubble care about.

This has 2016 written all over it.

1293593087172730880

1293569178838929416

[spurraider21]

messaging at this point needs to be related to covid, economic relief, and the handling of elections

[Blake]

"I think polls are very, very squishy right now because of the highly toxic political environment in which we live," Gundlach said. Gundlach said he’s come across data suggesting that about "two-thirds of conservatives or moderate conservatives say that they have lied about their support for Donald Trump either directly or by omission."

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/jeffrey-gundlach-says-base-case-is-trump-wins-re-election-215711167.html

If this board is a microcosm of the general voting population then that statement is probably true

[Will Hunting]

messaging at this point needs to be related to covid, economic relief, and the handling of elections
How are the people running the DNC / Biden's campaign this tone deaf? Of all the things to focus on right now, they're recycling the gay marriage card?

[Reck]

How are the people running the DNC / Biden's campaign this tone deaf? Of all the things to focus on right now, they're recycling the gay marriage card?

You need to calm down.

They have already proven they are way more competent than Hillary's campaign. It's been a day. They need to hype Kamala for their incoming rollout this afternoon.

If Biden is still talking about how much of a good blow jobber Kamala is a week from today than that's different.

[Will Hunting]

You need to calm down.

They have already proven they are way more competent than Hillary's campaign. It's been a day. They need to hype Kamala for their incoming rollout this afternoon.

If Biden is still talking about how much of a good blow jobber Kamala is a week from today than that's different.
It hasn't been a day. Trump has been sabotaging the postal service since June, and comatose Joe hasn't even commented on it because he's in the freezer.

[SpursforSix]

denial of peter

Bend over, I'll fucking show you denial of peter

[FrostKing]

bovada is currently offering +375 odds for a bet that Republicans win the popular vote. Go put your money where your mouth is if you feel so confident in it.
I'm full of bravado

[Spurtacular]

Nate Silver is an all-time cuck, tbh.

[hater]

What's Biden doing to combat Trump's bump in the polls? Gibberish about "marriage equality" and identity politics. Holy fuck the people running the DNC are tone deaf as to what people outside their bubble care about.

This has 2016 written all over it.

1293593087172730880

1293569178838929416

:lmao called it

[ElNono]

How are the people running the DNC / Biden's campaign this tone deaf? Of all the things to focus on right now, they're recycling the gay marriage card?

Well, it's the same people that didn't send Joe to talk to the good ol' coach when he thought he wanted run...

[Trainwreck2100]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

Currently has Biden with a 71% chance and Trump with a 29% chance....nearly identical odds going into election day in....wait for it....2016.

Biden needs to get out of the goddamn freezer already.

Trump only needs arizona florida and wisconsin and north carolina, that's not that hard

[Reck]

:lmao called it

Whst did you called? That he tweeted about his running mate? Shocking discovery

[DMC]

denial of peter

Bend over, I'll show you denial of peter.

[DMC]

Bend over, I'll fucking show you denial of peter


Bend over, I'll show you denial of peter.

[Trainwreck2100]

i do enjoy "the silent majority" meme when if the blacks that stayed home in 2016 go out and and are able to vote, that more than makes up the difference if Trump gets the same turnout

[FrostKing]

i do enjoy "the silent majority" meme when if the blacks that stayed home in 2016 go out and and are able to vote, that more than makes up the difference if Trump gets the same turnout
If blacks come out they'll loot and burn down the voting booths