Obi Toppin - 2020 NBA Draft Prospect

[timvp]

https://i.imgur.com/StZMYho.jpg

Obi Toppin

College: Dayton
Position: PF
Age: 22
Height: 6-foot-9
Weight: 220 pounds
Draft Range: 3 to 10

Why: Amazing offensive weapon. It's not hyperbole to compare him to Amare Stoudemire with a three-point shot. Great run and jump athlete. Big hands, finishes with power. Smooth jumper; a 41.7% three-point shooter at Dayton. Reads defenses well and doesn't force the issue. He was born to be a pick-and-roll finisher.

Why Not: Defense is going to be a struggle. Doesn't have the strength or length to be a quality post defender. Defending out on the perimeter he looks like a fish out of water. He has a stiff upper body and his reaction speed isn't great, which also makes him an iffy rebounder. He's one of the older prospects (22).

Spurs Fit: Toppin would be a Day 1 starter at power forward.

Spurs Comparison - Ceiling: Bigger Larry Kenon

Spurs Comparison - Floor: Middle Class Terry Cummings

Statistics (https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/obadiah-toppin-1.html)
Highlight Video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TbFyQBtLkVc)
Interview (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVi1RHdviu0)

[Sugus]

Can I hijack the thread slightly to ask you, Timvp, to move the BLM post to the political forum? I'd tag you there but I still don't know how to tag users, despite being on here for some time now, lol. It's annoying.

On a separate note, hell yeah to Toppin, one of the few prospects I wouldn't mind the Spurs trading up for.

[Dejounte]

As a reminder,

Last year, Obi Toppin was being projected as a late first rounder.

The Spurs worked him out before Obi decided to go back to school.

Imagine if the Spurs could find a Toppin in this draft who is projected late but would BOOM next year like Toppin did because he went back to college?

Here's the article:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/news4sanantonio.com/amp/sports/spurs-zone/dayton-forward-toppin-works-out-with-spurs

[DPG21920]

Would be thrilled. Fits with young core great. We have a lot of defenders already

[timvp]

Would be thrilled.

No-brainer at 11 if he somehow falls due to his age -- but that is unlikely to happen, even though other 22-year-olds have tumbled on draft day before.

He's one of the few prospects in this draft I'd trade up to target even though sometimes he looks like a hunchback Marco Belinelli on defense. I'd trust that his leaping ability alone would allow him to become an acceptable defender if he puts in the work. I doubt he'll ever be even an average defender but his offensive upside is so high that I can overlook it.

[timvp]

As a reminder,

Last year, Obi Toppin was being projected as a late first rounder.

The Spurs worked him out before Obi decided to go back to school.

Imagine if the Spurs could find a Toppin in this draft who is projected late but would BOOM next year like Toppin did because he went back to college?

Here's the article:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/news4sanantonio.com/amp/sports/spurs-zone/dayton-forward-toppin-works-out-with-spurs

Yeah, Spurs were on him last year. They was the first team to work him out. That would have been nice, tbh.

[Sugus]

Yeah, Spurs were on him last year. They was the first team to work him out. That would have been nice, tbh.

Damn, responding to the two posters that didn't address you directly in this thread and leaving me out? Feeling kind of dissed over here... Just joking. But do tell me, what's the code for tagging someone? Simply typing username doesn't seem to get it done.

E: Well, it seems like that does, indeed, get it done. Never mind me then...

[BackHome]

This year way before the draft hype started it was rumored that the Spurs really like Precious it’s funny at the time we were picking 19 or 20.

[BackHome]

This year way before the draft hype started it was rumored that the Spurs really like Precious it’s funny at the time we were picking 19 or 20.

[Chinook]

The uberest of ubers for me. A defensive four would raise the young core's floor, but an ace offensive player would raise the team's ceiling way more. Toppin is the only player I would be willing to trade up for. I would've considered Wiseman over him had the Spurs won the lottery, but I don't think I'd be willing to give up a lot of future value for him. Perfect fit with Aldridge or Poeltl because he can play inside an out. Has lead-dog potential because he has good handles and play-making for the position. Big enough to play small-ball center. I don't see why he shouldn't start at the four right away. Just everything the Spurs could ever ask for for the present and future.

Make it happen.

[mo7888]

The uberest of ubers for me. A defensive four would raise the young core's floor, but an ace offensive player would raise the team's ceiling way more. Toppin is the only player I would be willing to trade up for. I would've considered Wiseman over him had the Spurs won the lottery, but I don't think I'd be willing to give up a lot of future value for him. Perfect fit with Aldridge or Poeltl because he can play inside an out. Has lead-dog potential because he has good handles and play-making for the position. Big enough to play small-ball center. I don't see why he shouldn't start at the four right away. Just everything the Spurs could ever ask for for the present and future.

Make it happen.

We probably have to move into the top 4 or 5 to have a shot at him or Wiseman. What would you think wed have to give up to make that jump?

[dbestpro]

Would have to trade up to get him. Whoever gets him, I think he will be the rookie of the year as he will see the floor more than most.

[Chinook]

We probably have to move into the top 4 or 5 to have a shot at him or Wiseman. What would you think wed have to give up to make that jump?

I wouldn't be surprised if it doesn't take much. A team like ATL probably doesn't care about their pick much. I really think a basic swap with Murray would be enough to jump up. But is that high enough? I think the Spurs need to be as aggressive as they can between 2 and 10. If they like Toppin as much as I do, then they don't have anything too valuable to deal. I'd just try as hard as possible to avoid giving up White, Walker or Johnson. I'd take back bad money. I'd give up future picks (though protected if they're firsts -- not completely crazy). Whatever. If they can come out of this off-season with a projected first unit of White, Walker, Johnson, Toppin and Poeltl, I'd be crazy happy.

[mo7888]

I wouldn't be surprised if it doesn't take much. A team like ATL probably doesn't care about their pick much. I really think a basic swap with Murray would be enough to jump up. But is that high enough? I think the Spurs need to be as aggressive as they can between 2 and 10. If they like Toppin as much as I do, then they don't have anything too valuable to deal. I'd just try as hard as possible to avoid giving up White, Walker or Johnson. I'd take back bad money. I'd give up future picks (though protected if they're firsts -- not completely crazy). Whatever. If they can come out of this off-season with a projected first unit of White, Walker, Johnson, Toppin and Poeltl, I'd be crazy happy.

I don't think he lasts until 6 but I get your point. Obi is about perfect next to Poeltl. Obi and Wiseman are the only two I would trade up for. I'm not enamored with anyone at 11. I personally don't see a huge difference in value between the Williams of the draft and Woodard in the 20's. So, moving up to get your guy makes complete sense and if you can get back in 20's for a Woodard type or even sitting pat and getting a Reggie Perry with our 2nd rd pick makes a ton of sense to me.

[pad300]

I wouldn't be surprised if it doesn't take much. A team like ATL probably doesn't care about their pick much. I really think a basic swap with Murray would be enough to jump up. But is that high enough? I think the Spurs need to be as aggressive as they can between 2 and 10. If they like Toppin as much as I do, then they don't have anything too valuable to deal. I'd just try as hard as possible to avoid giving up White, Walker or Johnson. I'd take back bad money. I'd give up future picks (though protected if they're firsts -- not completely crazy). Whatever. If they can come out of this off-season with a projected first unit of White, Walker, Johnson, Toppin and Poeltl, I'd be crazy happy.

I wouldn't do this. I don't see as much in Toppin as you do. Yes, he's going to be a significant offensive player. But I see a worse defender than Amare... Which is to say he gives most of it back. I'm not sure I'd call trading Murray +11 for Toppin a better value proposition than drafting Paul Reed at 41... To match Toppin's offensive ability, Reed needs to get a lot better with his jumpshot. But to match Reed's defense, Toppin needs to rework everything he does defending...

[Chinook]

I wouldn't do this. I don't see as much in Toppin as you do. Yes, he's going to be a significant offensive player. But I see a worse defender than Amare... Which is to say he gives most of it back. I'm not sure I'd call trading Murray +11 for Toppin a better value proposition than drafting Paul Reed at 41... To match Toppin's offensive ability, Reed needs to get a lot better with his jumpshot. But to match Reed's defense, Toppin needs to rework everything he does defending...

Toppin is an oppressive offensive force. We're not talking about a guy who gets 18 but lets his guy go off. We're talking a guy who might drop some 50-point games in his prime. I like Reed a lot -- he's probably in my top five out of players I'd want the Spurs to come out with in the draft. But he's nowhere near the offensive prospect Toppin is. He has that funky shot and is probably going full Metu with his perimeter game. I think his defense is special, and in a world where the Spurs' perimeter guys develop into stars, having someone who I think can legit guard 2-4 and still have some offensive game is really nice. But in what I think is the real world where there isn't a first option in the core but there are guys who can thrive as second or third options, getting a legit offensive star would tie the whole unit together. And it helps that Toppin is a great rim-runner on PnRs and on the break. He'd make the perimeter players better by giving them an easy outlet ala STAT and Chandler for their guards.

In the long game, I don't think Murray is a factor, so I totally see getting Toppin over some other guy at 11 as a win. If they did that and Reed is still there at 41, take Paul too. There will be time for both of them as the roster clears out.

[DPG21920]

I wouldn't be surprised if it doesn't take much. A team like ATL probably doesn't care about their pick much. I really think a basic swap with Murray would be enough to jump up. But is that high enough? I think the Spurs need to be as aggressive as they can between 2 and 10. If they like Toppin as much as I do, then they don't have anything too valuable to deal. I'd just try as hard as possible to avoid giving up White, Walker or Johnson. I'd take back bad money. I'd give up future picks (though protected if they're firsts -- not completely crazy). Whatever. If they can come out of this off-season with a projected first unit of White, Walker, Johnson, Toppin and Poeltl, I'd be crazy happy.

Derozan to CHA for their pick + Batum

[mo7888]

Derozan to CHA for their pick + Batum

We'd need to offer more i think since ddr is on an expiring deal.

[TD 21]

I wouldn't be surprised if it doesn't take much. A team like ATL probably doesn't care about their pick much. I really think a basic swap with Murray would be enough to jump up. But is that high enough? I think the Spurs need to be as aggressive as they can between 2 and 10. If they like Toppin as much as I do, then they don't have anything too valuable to deal. I'd just try as hard as possible to avoid giving up White, Walker or Johnson. I'd take back bad money. I'd give up future picks (though protected if they're firsts -- not completely crazy). Whatever. If they can come out of this off-season with a projected first unit of White, Walker, Johnson, Toppin and Poeltl, I'd be crazy happy.

The Hawks need another play maker to relieve and allow Young to play off the ball some. Murray obviously doesn't fit that bill and while White would, given the age gap between him and Avdija, Haliburton, Hayes (two of which should be available at six) they'd be better off selecting one of them.

Granted, there is some internal pressure to "take the next step", but even if they were willing, I doubt the Spurs would make that move.



Derozan to CHA for their pick + Batum

Like they'd trade the third pick for an aging, pseudo star on an expiring (and given their situation, it'd take top dollar to get him to extend), when they have ample cap space anyway and Batum is expiring.

[Chinook]

Teams don't know Murray's a bad play-maker though. They see a young guard whom the Spurs liked and who flashes somewhat frequently. He will be in demand, just as PatFO probably don't regret that contract yet.

[B1gduff]

The bigest need this team is defense, and the last thing we need is another guy that is offense only. So no Thank You!

[Chinook]

The bigest need this team is defense, and the last thing we need is another guy that is offense only. So no Thank You!

Team needs offense way more.

[mo7888]

The bigest need this team is defense, and the last thing we need is another guy that is offense only. So no Thank You!

We have rim protection with either Poeltl or lma...we've got guys capable of defending on the perimeter...we need a sf/pf guy who can score and is hell on the boards

[DPG21920]

The Hawks need another play maker to relieve and allow Young to play off the ball some. Murray obviously doesn't fit that bill and while White would, given the age gap between him and Avdija, Haliburton, Hayes (two of which should be available at six) they'd be better off selecting one of them.

Granted, there is some internal pressure to "take the next step", but even if they were willing, I doubt the Spurs would make that move.




Like they'd trade the third pick for an aging, pseudo star on an expiring (and given their situation, it'd take top dollar to get him to extend), when they have ample cap space anyway and Batum is expiring.

Batum is not expiring

[TD 21]

Teams don't know Murray's a bad play-maker though. They see a young guard whom the Spurs liked and who flashes somewhat frequently. He will be in demand, just as PatFO probably don't regret that contract yet.

Come on man, of course they do. You make it sound like front office executives are casual fans/media.


Batum is not expiring

He is.

[Collins21]

Batum is not expiring

Yeah he is.

[DPG21920]

Come on man, of course they do. You make it sound like front office executives are casual fans/media.



He is.

My mistake. I was reading this year as next year and thinking he has one more PO year after.

[BacktoBasics]

Can I hijack the thread slightly to ask you, Timvp, to move the BLM post to the political forum? I'd tag you there but I still don't know how to tag users, despite being on here for some time now, lol. It's annoying.

On a separate note, hell yeah to Toppin, one of the few prospects I wouldn't mind the Spurs trading up for.

It was one thing when games were on hiatus and it was the core topic. Time to clean it up. I’d start with ducks. This guy is nothing more than a paid spammer.

[cd021]

Really see the Amare comp on offense, but he could be as bad as Amare on defense. He has a 7'4 wingspan, so maybe there's hope that he can at least be a rim protector on offense.

[RC_Drunkford]

Pop would turn Toppin into a plus defender. I don’t care how bad he looked in college, he has the athleticism and length. If he messes up on defense Pop would yank him. Definitely my favorite in this draft, I just don’t see a way to get him

[Seventyniner]

I wouldn't be surprised if it doesn't take much. A team like ATL probably doesn't care about their pick much. I really think a basic swap with Murray would be enough to jump up. But is that high enough? I think the Spurs need to be as aggressive as they can between 2 and 10. If they like Toppin as much as I do, then they don't have anything too valuable to deal. I'd just try as hard as possible to avoid giving up White, Walker or Johnson. I'd take back bad money. I'd give up future picks (though protected if they're firsts -- not completely crazy). Whatever. If they can come out of this off-season with a projected first unit of White, Walker, Johnson, Toppin and Poeltl, I'd be crazy happy.

Aren't Toppin and Poeltl somewhat redundant on offense? Without a respectable jumper, where does Poeltl space to in order to allow Toppin room to roll to the rim?

White/Walker/Johnson/Toppin/Aldridge would be far better imo. If giving up DeRozan can get the Spurs far enough up the draft board to get Toppin then that lineup can happen.

[TD 21]

Really see the Amare comp on offense, but he could be as bad as Amare on defense. He has a 7'4 wingspan, so maybe there's hope that he can at least be a rim protector on offense.

6'11''. https://nbadraft.theringer.com/?_ga=2.228558813.1342828797.1598145608-1583892282.1598145608#mock


Pop would turn Toppin into a plus defender. I don’t care how bad he looked in college, he has the athleticism and length. If he messes up on defense Pop would yank him. Definitely my favorite in this draft, I just don’t see a way to get him

:lmao Just like he did with this team the last two years? It's not about coaching, it's about physical tools. You're conflating vertical with lateral athleticism (see DeRozan).


Aren't Toppin and Poeltl somewhat redundant on offense? Without a respectable jumper, where does Poeltl space to in order to allow Toppin room to roll to the rim?

White/Walker/Johnson/Toppin/Aldridge would be far better imo. If giving up DeRozan can get the Spurs far enough up the draft board to get Toppin then that lineup can happen.

He has a respectable jumper. I view the comp here as Collins, who's adept at rim running and floor spacing. He's probably not best next to a strict rim runner, yet he requires that type to protect the rim.

[cd021]

6'11''. https://nbadraft.theringer.com/?_ga=2.228558813.1342828797.1598145608-1583892282.1598145608#mock


According to these two sites his arm span is either 7'2 or 7'4

https://ca.nba.com/news/nba-draft-2020-obi-toppin-scouting-report-strengths-weaknesses-and-player-comparison/17xgbpjulp22613erolxqvmrsd

https://www.lineups.com/articles/obi-toppin-scouting-report-2020-nba-draft/

I found this:


One remarkable physical feature about Toppin is his 7 foot 4 wingspan. Toppin’s length makes up for his lack of size for the position he plays. As a result, Toppin has turned into an adequate rim protector and disruptive force on the defensive end.

[Chinook]

Aren't Toppin and Poeltl somewhat redundant on offense? Without a respectable jumper, where does Poeltl space to in order to allow Toppin room to roll to the rim?

White/Walker/Johnson/Toppin/Aldridge would be far better imo. If giving up DeRozan can get the Spurs far enough up the draft board to get Toppin then that lineup can happen.

Having two guys who provide vertical spacing isn't a bad thing, especially given that the guards aren't good at it. If Toppin couldn't shoot and couldn't create from the perimeter, it'd probably an issue. But it's like being worried Poeltl doesn't fit with a slashing guard. There's room in the interior for a center so long as everyone who's outside is a willing and able shooter. Toppin should be able to spot up with success, so it won't impede PnRs he's not in or other drives by guards. And when Toppin is the roll-man in PnRs, Poeltl should be able to take the dunker spot.

Maybe if/when Toppin develops into a true first option, the team will want to be four-out so he can work. That's not the case yet. He probably does fit better with Aldridge offensively, but defensively, there's more potential with Poeltl. I'd still prefer to keep LMA, but I'm willing to trade him as part of a package to get Toppin, whereas Poeltl can't be traded.

[NickiRasgo]

Warriors would be thrilled to get this kid if they're looking for an immediate impact assuming they're not looking for a trade sooner (rumored Giannis) which is kinda scary since it would make a lot a space for him with because of the play style of Warriors. He would like the Klay in 4 or 5 position that can score without having to dribble much.

If things doesn't work out and they're leaning already getting a star, they can just simply trade him (assuming the Warriors picked him), Wiggins and T'Wolves 2021 1st). I quite envy them since they have flexibility and multiple-options. :depressed

[TD 21]

According to these two sites his arm span is either 7'2 or 7'4

https://ca.nba.com/news/nba-draft-2020-obi-toppin-scouting-report-strengths-weaknesses-and-player-comparison/17xgbpjulp22613erolxqvmrsd

https://www.lineups.com/articles/obi-toppin-scouting-report-2020-nba-draft/

I found this:

Interesting. He does look longer than 6'11'' and The Ringer initially had Haliburton at 7'0'' before switching to 6'8'' and Bey at 6'10'', but I've seen 6'11'' elsewhere.

Either way though, he seems somewhat like Lyles, in that despite his possible length he'll need a rim protector next to him.

[8FOR!3]

I would be ecstatic to get Obi Toppin, any way we could make it DDR or LMA and #11?

[BacktoBasics]

I would be ecstatic to get Obi Toppin, any way we could make it DDR or LMA and #11?

I can’t see anyone under 7 that would be interested in passing up on even mediocre talent for a one year rental of either of these guys.

Neither of them move the needle for anyone. If you want to move up it’s going to cost the pick and something with the potential to be a rotation player for more than a year.

Moving DDR or Aldridge would be something you do if you’re moving down and want to free up cap space, they’re not the kind of pieces that help you move up. Maybe NY would be dumb enough but not after that Morris shitfest.

[objective]

I only watched 2 whole games (VCU and Colorado) and also checked out a lot of the scouting videos on youtube and I am less and less impressed by him.

The dunks are flashy and that's great, and the Spurs could use a vertical threat.

I just find his defense to be so poor, and am not much of a believer of his other offensive weapons at the moment for the NBA level.

His defensive awareness was awful. Doesn't mean it will always be that way, Murray in college was atrocious also. But if his man was screening off ball, it made no difference to him. He was one of the few guys who could on defense during an inbounds under the basket, be under the basket with his man and get distracted enough by watching other dudes just running around that he lost his man under the basket for the score. While starting right there under the basket.

And I know he shot well from 3, I don't like how his shot looks. I'm in the minority I'm sure and no shot doctor, I just watch it and don't think it's going in. I may be suffering from a bias as the Colorado game was the first one I watched and it was brick city.

And I agree with some of the naysayers on reddit who mention that a lot of his scoring success in the post at the college level was against scrub teams and he wasn't really matched against real talent.

I wouldn't go berzerk if he fell to them and they drafted him but I'm not rooting for a trade-up.

[Dejounte]

https://twitter.com/Shot_Quality/status/1298305536488873986?s=19

Remember to use context here and factor in usage when interpreting this data.

[Mugen]

Pop would turn Toppin into a plus defender. I don’t care how bad he looked in college, he has the athleticism and length. If he messes up on defense Pop would yank him. Definitely my favorite in this draft, I just don’t see a way to get him

C'mon bruh, you know better than this :lol

[Mugen]

I also don't buy anybody that the Spurs pick at 11th being a Day 1 starter unless Brooklyn backs up the BRINKS truck :lol

We're talking way past his prime Pop here, not the 1998 version. If the Spurs drafted a prime Tim Duncan, he'd be riding the bench for a year behind Trey Lyles until "he got over himself" :lmao

[duncan2150]

And I agree with some of the naysayers on reddit who mention that a lot of his scoring success in the post at the college level was against scrub teams and he wasn't really matched against real talent.

I wouldn't go berzerk if he fell to them and they drafted him but I'm not rooting for a trade-up.

After watching some tape of him I think the same. He played against average teams and he is 22.
The NBA will Be whole different, still I think he could a good offensive four ala drew gooden but not more.

[ZeusWillJudge]

I wouldn't be surprised if it doesn't take much. A team like ATL probably doesn't care about their pick much. I really think a basic swap with Murray would be enough to jump up. But is that high enough? I think the Spurs need to be as aggressive as they can between 2 and 10. If they like Toppin as much as I do, then they don't have anything too valuable to deal. I'd just try as hard as possible to avoid giving up White, Walker or Johnson. I'd take back bad money. I'd give up future picks (though protected if they're firsts -- not completely crazy). Whatever. If they can come out of this off-season with a projected first unit of White, Walker, Johnson, Toppin and Poeltl, I'd be crazy happy.


Murray and 11 for Toppin would be a real coup. I think he Toppin could go #3, though, and Minny won't trade down that far for just Murray and 11. A protected first might work. When you're talking taking back bad money, I assume you mean James Johnson (I assume he's opting in). I don't know how they would work that out, but yeah I'd take his deal to get Toppin. I don't think there's a chance in hell, but I'd take it.

[ZeusWillJudge]

I only watched 2 whole games (VCU and Colorado) and also checked out a lot of the scouting videos on youtube and I am less and less impressed by him.

The dunks are flashy and that's great, and the Spurs could use a vertical threat.

I just find his defense to be so poor, and am not much of a believer of his other offensive weapons at the moment for the NBA level.


I don't think he's THAT bad on the defensive end. When you consider how slow Gay was this year, I'm not sure he would be a downgrade there. And he would be a definite upgrade offensively.

Not like it matters, since Pop would put him in Austin anyway.

[Chinook]

Toppin is basically a more mature Rui Hachimura. The two players are about the same age, so it's not really a case where Rui has a bunch more potential. Having that extra year in the league has probably helped with his development, but he didn't seem to have much more in his game besides dunking. Even so, I think a lot of people would have been willing to give up an extra first last year to grab him. For the same price this year, I think it's a no-brainer. Obi is just a lot better, and he still has room to grow.

http://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=obi-toppin--rui-hachimura

[Dejounte]

Toppin is basically a more mature Rui Hachimura. The two players are about the same age, so it's not really a case where Rui has a bunch more potential. Having that extra year in the league has probably helped with his development, but he didn't seem to have much more in his game besides dunking. Even so, I think a lot of people would have been willing to give up an extra first last year to grab him. For the same price this year, I think it's a no-brainer. Obi is just a lot better, and he still has room to grow.

http://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=obi-toppin--rui-hachimura

The huge disparity in FTA rate tells a story. Rui plays more like a bruiser power forward, while Toppin plays like an athletic Antawn Jamison.

[Ed Helicopter Jones]

Pretty lofty comparisons. If his floor really is a middle-class Terry Cummings he's a no-brainer if available.

Dayton kids are usually smart ball players and well-coached, which should make his transition to Spurs ball easier as well.

[DAF86]

Toppin is basically a more mature Rui Hachimura. The two players are about the same age, so it's not really a case where Rui has a bunch more potential. Having that extra year in the league has probably helped with his development, but he didn't seem to have much more in his game besides dunking. Even so, I think a lot of people would have been willing to give up an extra first last year to grab him. For the same price this year, I think it's a no-brainer. Obi is just a lot better, and he still has room to grow.

http://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=obi-toppin--rui-hachimura

I don't really see the comparisson, tbh. Hachimura is more of a 3/4 while Toppin is a 4/5.

[Chinook]

Rui isn't a three at all. I think they're both PFs.

[Drom John]

When the Spurs didn't make the playoffs, I didn't respond to the, now who's your #2 team you're rooting for in the playoffs, because the Hawks didn't make the playoffs either.
Yes, the Hawks want their draft pick.
No, the Hawks don't want Murray.
Hell no, the Hawks don't want Murray for the 6th pick.
The "Spur" the Hawks are targeting is Bertans.

[Chinook]

Drom, nice to have some ATL perspective. I have seen from Hawks fans on RGM that they don't really want their pick, would entertain trading down and would be interested in young vets rather than rookies, as they want to make a playoff push.


Were you just giving your opinion, or did their front office say something?

[Dejounte]

https://youtu.be/gVi1RHdviu0

[timvp]

The closer I look at it, the more I think there's a non-0% chance Obi falls to the Spurs. I wouldn't classify it as a good chance but it's difficult to find a landing spot for him in the top ten.

Minnesota: Would they really put a non-defensive big next to KAT? That'd be dumb.

Golden State: They have Draymond and Obi wouldn't be too helpful as a small ball center.

Charlotte: MJ likes going with the most well-known college player but, then again, they just drafted PJ Washington in the lottery last year and he was a started all year. You can't start Washington and Obi together.

Cleveland: Their guards are so bad at defense that picking Obi would defensive suicide. Plus, with Love and Drummond, things would get awkward pretty quickly.

Chicago: They already have an offensive, no-defense big in Markkanen.

Atlanta: Obi next to John Collins would be the worst defensive big pairing in the league.

Detroit: They have Blake Griffin and, more importantly, they desperately need guards.

Knicks: They have a ton of power forward who are light on defense. Would they draft another one? It's possible but they too need guards.

Washington: Rui looks like he's their power forward of the future. Add in Bertans, who they are expected to re-sign, and I don't see the fit here.

Phoenix: They have Saric and Cam Johnson. Ayton doesn't have good defensive instincts so pairing him with Obi would be dangerous.

The best fits for Obi are behind the Spurs: Portland, Boston, New Orleans, Orlando, etc.

The most likely team to pick Obi before the Spurs I guess would be the Cavs. He's an in-state product and it's not like they know what they're doing anyways. The Knicks are another team that would just draft him for the name.

[TD 21]

The closer I look at it, the more I think there's a non-0% chance Obi falls to the Spurs. I wouldn't classify it as a good chance but it's difficult to find a landing spot for him in the top ten.

Minnesota: Would they really put a non-defensive big next to KAT? That'd be dumb.

Golden State: They have Draymond and Obi wouldn't be too helpful as a small ball center.

Charlotte: MJ likes going with the most well-known college player but, then again, they just drafted PJ Washington in the lottery last year and he was a started all year. You can't start Washington and Obi together.

Cleveland: Their guards are so bad at defense that picking Obi would defensive suicide. Plus, with Love and Drummond, things would get awkward pretty quickly.

Chicago: They already have an offensive, no-defense big in Markkanen.

Atlanta: Obi next to John Collins would be the worst defensive big pairing in the league.

Detroit: They have Blake Griffin and, more importantly, they desperately need guards.

Knicks: They have a ton of power forward who are light on defense. Would they draft another one? It's possible but they too need guards.

Washington: Rui looks like he's their power forward of the future. Add in Bertans, who they are expected to re-sign, and I don't see the fit here.

Phoenix: They have Saric and Cam Johnson. Ayton doesn't have good defensive instincts so pairing him with Obi would be dangerous.

The best fits for Obi are behind the Spurs: Portland, Boston, New Orleans, Orlando, etc.

The most likely team to pick Obi before the Spurs I guess would be the Cavs. He's an in-state product and it's not like they know what they're doing anyways. The Knicks are another team that would just draft him for the name.

You're making the same mistake with some of these teams that you (correctly) have accused some Spurs fans of doing with this one.

In many of these cases, it's not about what's currently in place, but about taking the best talent available.

Not saying he necessarily is that early on, but he will be at some point before 11.

[Dejounte]

Maybe I should watch this guy more intensively since it's sounding more realistic that he will drop ... It was his off the charts offense statistically that made him rise my board but maybe I should be more careful given his terrible reputation on defense. And would his offense really be impactful in the NBA? Would he be able to score on more physical defense? Or will it be empty stats akin to Blake Griffin? Would an offense centered around a high flying stretch big be champion caliber? Hmm...

[timvp]

You're making the same mistake with some of these teams that you (correctly) have accused some Spurs fans of doing with this one.

In many of these cases, it's not about what's currently in place, but about taking the best talent available.

Not saying he necessarily is that early on, but he will be at some point before 11.

It is admittedly difficult to predict what these ever-lottery teams will do but there are some really bad fits factoring in players who appear to be a part of a current core (Collins, Rui, Markkanen and maybe Washington). I agree that Obi is a heavy favorite to be in the top ten -- but it's conceivable that he'll drop down, especially because there's not an obvious landing spot that he won't get past. By contrast, an equal-ish talent like Killian Hayes is probably less likely to drop out considering about half those teams need point guards.

Plus, mocks have slowly lowered Obi in the last month or so. It's not too uncommon to find him going ~8th now: https://hoopshype.com/lists/nba-mock-draft-anthony-edwards-lamelo-ball-james-wiseman-obi-toppin/ . Add in that Obi has some characteristics that have typically led to players dropping (old, smaller college, not a known prospect coming out of high school) and I think there's a possibility that he'll slip.

[objective]

I think Obi has just as good a chance to be available as Williams has to be off the board (I'm looking at Phoenix).

I am not the biggest Obi fan, don't really believe in his point generation at the next level. Windmills and between the legs dunks against non-NBA level nobodies at Rhode Island and GW are fun, and he can pass and hit threes, but ... Ehhh.

However, if he's there, it could mean the guys I like better are gone. So I probably wouldn't be that upset with him at 11. As of now, I'd rather him than Nesmith or Bey.

[Degoat]

Obi is my number one player id love for the spurs to end up with, I can’t see him falling to 11th tho. In a supposedly “weak draft” someone will grab him top 7 imo

[Chinook]

It is admittedly difficult to predict what these ever-lottery teams will do but there are some really bad fits factoring in players who appear to be a part of a current core (Collins, Rui, Markkanen and maybe Washington). I agree that Obi is a heavy favorite to be in the top ten -- but it's conceivable that he'll drop down, especially because there's not an obvious landing spot that he won't get past. By contrast, an equal-ish talent like Killian Hayes is probably less likely to drop out considering about half those teams need point guards.

Plus, mocks have slowly lowered Obi in the last month or so. It's not too uncommon to find him going ~8th now: https://hoopshype.com/lists/nba-mock-draft-anthony-edwards-lamelo-ball-james-wiseman-obi-toppin/ . Add in that Obi has some characteristics that have typically led to players dropping (old, smaller college, not a known prospect coming out of high school) and I think there's a possibility that he'll slip.

I'd say it's more than the drafts have calmed. Back when I was first hyping him, he was in the back half of the top-10. You've listed factors for why he might fall, and you can add to it at his position and body type are huge bust candidates. There's an ocean of athletic 6-9ish forwards that get hyped up as big shit and become at best JAGs in the NBA. Derrick Williams, Thomas Robinson, Anthony Bennett, Jabari Parker, Marqueese Chriss ... all the way through to Bagley and Hachimura. Almost every draft has a guy like that. And while it's not fair to judge a player for what guys who looked like him did, many of the teams ahead of the Spurs have been burned by taking at least one of this archetype recently. A lot of clubs could talk themselves into passing on Toppin just as a lot of them talked themselves into passing on Clarke. Maybe they'll even be right to do so.

[TD 21]

It is admittedly difficult to predict what these ever-lottery teams will do but there are some really bad fits factoring in players who appear to be a part of a current core (Collins, Rui, Markkanen and maybe Washington). I agree that Obi is a heavy favorite to be in the top ten -- but it's conceivable that he'll drop down, especially because there's not an obvious landing spot that he won't get past. By contrast, an equal-ish talent like Killian Hayes is probably less likely to drop out considering about half those teams need point guards.

Plus, mocks have slowly lowered Obi in the last month or so. It's not too uncommon to find him going ~8th now: https://hoopshype.com/lists/nba-mock-draft-anthony-edwards-lamelo-ball-james-wiseman-obi-toppin/ . Add in that Obi has some characteristics that have typically led to players dropping (old, smaller college, not a known prospect coming out of high school) and I think there's a possibility that he'll slip.

True, but I don't know how entrenched any of them actually are. There's been conflicting reports about whether the Hawks will want to pay Collins (weird), Markkanen it seems they'll give one last chance under a new regime and Hachimura and Washington aren't particularly established and the latter in particular has no chance of becoming a star.

Toppin is the type who should at least be an easy sell to casuals. He's athletic and he should pile up certain counting stats (namely ppg). Whether he'll actually impact winning is another story, but those types (especially the ones who can or project to shoot 3s) always hold appeal to old school types in non glamor markets.

[timvp]

I think Obi has just as good a chance to be available as Williams has to be off the board (I'm looking at Phoenix).Yeah, pretty much agree. Williams should be available at 11 but it's possible he could go 8-10. Obi should be off the board but I think the Spurs are actually his soft landing spot.

It's a totally different situation than someone like Haliburton. In general, Obi looks like he'll go before Haliburton but Haliburton has multiple teams that will catch him before he'd fall to the Spurs. Haliburton's soft landing spot is probably the Suns at 10, unfortunately.

[timvp]

I'd say it's more than the drafts have calmed. Back when I was first hyping him, he was in the back half of the top-10. You've listed factors for why he might fall, and you can add to it at his position and body type are huge bust candidates. There's an ocean of athletic 6-9ish forwards that get hyped up as big shit and become at best JAGs in the NBA. Derrick Williams, Thomas Robinson, Anthony Bennett, Jabari Parker, Marqueese Chriss ... all the way through to Bagley and Hachimura. Almost every draft has a guy like that. And while it's not fair to judge a player for what guys who looked like him did, many of the teams ahead of the Spurs have been burned by taking at least one of this archetype recently. A lot of clubs could talk themselves into passing on Toppin just as a lot of them talked themselves into passing on Clarke. Maybe they'll even be right to do so.

Agreed that Obi's bust potential deserves more focus. He's definitely someone who could flame out. If you look at the history of players his age who have been drafted in the lottery, just about all of them have disappointed in the last 10-15 years. I think Buddy Hield is the only recent example of an old player drafted in the lottery who lived up to his billing.

Poku is obviously a more likely bust but compare Obi to Williams and I'm not sure who has a higher chance of being a bust. It might be Obi because it's conceivable that he's such a bust that he's not even in the league in five years, while Williams has the body and the instincts that will make him somewhat useful even if he skills don't develop.

[rankingtear]

The hit rate of a 22 year old guy at the lottery is not good. I can see him dropping not because of fit but because of age and teams might prefer projects ( poku, williams ) or nba ready wings ( saddiq, nesmith ).

From bleacher:


Before the Minnesota Timberwolves took Cameron Johnson in 2019—who looks like he'll be a useful rotation piece but maybe a questionable choice over Tyler Herro and PJ Washington—the previous lottery picks (https://basketball.realgm.com/nba/draft/search?showPicks=&pick_range_min=1&pick_range_max=14&age_range_min=22&age_range_max=25&height_range_min=69&height_range_max=91&weight_range_min=150&weight_range_max=375&yos_range_min=0&yos_range_max=21&all_star_range_min=0&all_star_range_max=15&all_nba_range_min=0&all_nba_range_max=15&all_defense_range_min=0&all_defense_range_max=14) since 2004 drafted at 22 or older included Kris Dunn, Buddy Hield, Taurean Prince, Denzel Valentine, Frank Kaminsky, Doug McDermott, Kelly Olynyk, Jimmer Fredette, Wesley Johnson, Ekpe Udoh, Hasheem Thabeet, Tyler Hansbrough, Brandon Rush, Joakim Noah (http://bleacherreport.com/joakim-noah), Acie Law, Al Thornton, Shelden Williams, Randy Foye, JJ Redick, Thabo Sefolosha, Channing Frye, Fran Vazquez, Babby Araujo and Luke Jackson.

[Russ]

As far as who falls to 11, I don't think any of the guys I like (e.g., Toppin) will fall.

Tier One

1. Wiseman
2. Okongwu
3. Avdija

Tier Two

4. Toppin
5. Hayes

Add in Edwards and Ball and I doubt any of those 7 will fall past 9. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if they all go 1-7. Halliburton and Okoro seem the most likely to bust into the top 7.

I'm hoping the Spurs trade up 1-3 spots to get one of those 7 because there's a falloff after . . .

[JuneJive]

How can he be such a lousy defender?

He's an athlete that uses it pretty well on offense, yet he's a sieve on defense.

He's an excellent passer with a good feel for the game yet he can't use that bbiq on defense.

[timvp]

The hit rate of a 22 year old guy at the lottery is not good. I can see him dropping not because of fit but because of age and teams might prefer projects ( poku, williams ) or nba ready wings ( saddiq, nesmith ).

From bleacher:


Before the Minnesota Timberwolves took Cameron Johnson in 2019—who looks like he'll be a useful rotation piece but maybe a questionable choice over Tyler Herro and PJ Washington—the previous lottery picks (https://basketball.realgm.com/nba/draft/search?showPicks=&pick_range_min=1&pick_range_max=14&age_range_min=22&age_range_max=25&height_range_min=69&height_range_max=91&weight_range_min=150&weight_range_max=375&yos_range_min=0&yos_range_max=21&all_star_range_min=0&all_star_range_max=15&all_nba_range_min=0&all_nba_range_max=15&all_defense_range_min=0&all_defense_range_max=14) since 2004 drafted at 22 or older included Kris Dunn, Buddy Hield, Taurean Prince, Denzel Valentine, Frank Kaminsky, Doug McDermott, Kelly Olynyk, Jimmer Fredette, Wesley Johnson, Ekpe Udoh, Hasheem Thabeet, Tyler Hansbrough, Brandon Rush, Joakim Noah (http://bleacherreport.com/joakim-noah), Acie Law, Al Thornton, Shelden Williams, Randy Foye, JJ Redick, Thabo Sefolosha, Channing Frye, Fran Vazquez, Babby Araujo and Luke Jackson.




Good find, thanks. Yeah, that's what I was talking about. Sixteen years of drafts and the older picks are basically all disappointing other than Hield, Noah and (after a slow start) Redick. The rest of that lists is a who's who of busts.

[exstatic]

I just hate his defensive floor.

[keithington1]

Imagine passing it to the Toppin at the ft line and asking for a bucket. #ripcity. He needs to be fed. Thats not what the Spurs are looking for imo. If he’s there trade back.

[XDT76]

How can he be such a lousy defender?

He's an athlete that uses it pretty well on offense, yet he's a sieve on defense.

He's an excellent passer with a good feel for the game yet he can't use that bbiq on defense.

Well we have one in DDR, sometimes its about the effort.

[duncan2150]

I have some concerns about Obi, Looks like something between drew gooden and amare stoudemire. His D and the fact that he played against low competition are the main question marks for me.

At 11 will be a good pick btw

[BillMc]

Good find, thanks. Yeah, that's what I was talking about. Sixteen years of drafts and the older picks are basically all disappointing other than Hield, Noah and (after a slow start) Redick. The rest of that lists is a who's who of busts.

While he wasn't a lottery pick, wasn't our own D. White like 22 or so? I think that stigma could work in our favor.

[Chinook]

While he wasn't a lottery pick, wasn't our own D. White like 22 or so? I think that stigma could work in our favor.

Yes. White turned 23 like a week after the draft. His age definitely worked against him. What gives me hope with Toppin is that despite his age, he was still just a (RS) sophomore. Like White, his experience playing high-level basketball is closer to guys years younger than him than typical 22- or 23-year-olds. A much better tracker of remaining potential is years of high-level coaching. I wouldn't hesitate to draft him at 11. Even if he's another Derrick Williams, I think Williams would've been a useful player had he been on a decent team rather than Minny, SAC and the Knicks.

[The Truth #6]

It seems the big knock on him is his defense, which in part seems to be related to his stiff hips and heavy feet. I'm having to wonder how much those two physical issues will limit him on offense as well. His jumping is great, obviously. But there are different types of athleticism, and having stiff hips and heavy feet seems like a challenge for him moving forward, such as will he ever be able to have a strong post game in the NBA. Hard to say. I'm still getting familiar with his game, and I would like to see combine numbers to get a better sense of his overall physical traits. In the end, his ability to shoot the 3 will probably define his success in the NBA. Don't get me wrong, if he falls to 11, then this is a great opportunity. But there is bust potential with him. If he can't close games because of his poor defense, then what is his ceiling. This is a weird draft. Question marks on everyone.

[ZeusWillJudge]

Good find, thanks. Yeah, that's what I was talking about. Sixteen years of drafts and the older picks are basically all disappointing other than Hield, Noah and (after a slow start) Redick. The rest of that lists is a who's who of busts.


Yeah, I don't know. A few of those guys aren't exactly huge disappointments, considering they went outside of the Top 10. Someone like Kriss Dunn wouldn't be a huge disappointment if he had been drafted around 13. And most of them were just inept picks by clueless FO's. The problem wasn't their age - it was just really stupid management. Look at Epke Udoh getting picked at #6 FFS - but then notice that it was Golden State, back when they were totally mismanaged. That list leaves off Luke Jackson who went somewhere around 9-10... but that was Cleveland who didn't do much of anything right, other than have LeBron fall into their laps. Araujo was the result of that belief you talked about that any 7-footer who could walk and chew gum could be an NBA player - but it was also the perennial doormat Toronto that picked him.

I think Brandon Roy was 22 when he was drafted (if not, he was within a month or so). Caron Butler was 22, and I don't think he was a big disappointment. I'm pretty sure Danny Granger was 22 when he was drafted, even though he isn't on the list either (sorry, Granger fell just out of the lottery. ZWJ). David Lee was a 4 year college guy, so I'm pretty sure he was 22. Jameer Nelson was old when he was drafted. David West, Josh Howard - I'm sure there are more. The problem isn't the age. It's that when you have a solid lottery pick, you really want a guy who stood out so much in college that he just had to leave early, because the expectation is that there are stars available in the first 6-7 picks. After that, it's the same choice the Spurs are facing - swing for the "upside" fence and try to back-door a future star, or pick a guy who's likely to be in the league for 8+ years, and who might become a second-tier star through grit and effort. I know West was gassed by the time he got here, but if you told me that the Spurs could draft a young David West at 11, I'd jump on it, even though West was almost 23 when he was drafted.

The biggest red flag on Toppin, IMO, is that he doesn't defend or rebound for shit, and he likes to play above the rim. To me that says he's more interested in highlight reels than a winning team. But if Golden State was picking 11 instead of 2, I guarantee you they would scoop him up. There's nothing Kevon Looney can do that Toppin can't already do much better. Back in the day, I would be confident that the Spurs could get him to defend, but now I'm not so sure.


Edit: Whoever made that list above cherry-picked to make a point - just because of Roy, of no one else. By the time you get out of the Top 10 (Top 7, really), you can't afford to overlook 22 year-olds who are obviously NBA ready.

[ZeusWillJudge]

Yes. White turned 23 like a week after the draft. His age definitely worked against him. What gives me hope with Toppin is that despite his age, he was still just a (RS) sophomore. Like White, his experience playing high-level basketball is closer to guys years younger than him than typical 22- or 23-year-olds. A much better tracker of remaining potential is years of high-level coaching. I wouldn't hesitate to draft him at 11. Even if he's another Derrick Williams, I think Williams would've been a useful player had he been on a decent team rather than Minny, SAC and the Knicks.


Dead on with that.

Of course, Toppin played against a ridiculously easy strength of schedule. Much lower than White's, for instance. I'm still not sold on what he does against NBA defenders, but he's got a lot of the signs of a late bloomer. The Spurs will have done the homework to know if he's teachable. If they take him, it will be a good pick. If they pass (assuming he gets to them) they'll have good reason.

[timvp]

Yeah, I don't know. A few of those guys aren't exactly huge disappointments, considering they went outside of the Top 10. Someone like Kriss Dunn wouldn't be a huge disappointment if he had been drafted around 13. And most of them were just inept picks by clueless FO's. The problem wasn't their age - it was just really stupid management. Look at Epke Udoh getting picked at #6 FFS - but then notice that it was Golden State, back when they were totally mismanaged. That list leaves off Luke Jackson who went somewhere around 9-10... but that was Cleveland who didn't do much of anything right, other than have LeBron fall into their laps. Araujo was the result of that belief you talked about that any 7-footer who could walk and chew gum could be an NBA player - but it was also the perennial doormat Toronto that picked him.

I think Brandon Roy was 22 when he was drafted (if not, he was within a month or so). Caron Butler was 22, and I don't think he was a big disappointment. I'm pretty sure Danny Granger was 22 when he was drafted, even though he isn't on the list either (sorry, Granger fell just out of the lottery. ZWJ). David Lee was a 4 year college guy, so I'm pretty sure he was 22. Jameer Nelson was old when he was drafted. David West, Josh Howard - I'm sure there are more. The problem isn't the age. It's that when you have a solid lottery pick, you really want a guy who stood out so much in college that he just had to leave early, because the expectation is that there are stars available in the first 6-7 picks. After that, it's the same choice the Spurs are facing - swing for the "upside" fence and try to back-door a future star, or pick a guy who's likely to be in the league for 8+ years, and who might become a second-tier star through grit and effort. I know West was gassed by the time he got here, but if you told me that the Spurs could draft a young David West at 11, I'd jump on it, even though West was almost 23 when he was drafted.

The biggest red flag on Toppin, IMO, is that he doesn't defend or rebound for shit, and he likes to play above the rim. To me that says he's more interested in highlight reels than a winning team. But if Golden State was picking 11 instead of 2, I guarantee you they would scoop him up. There's nothing Kevon Looney can do that Toppin can't already do much better. Back in the day, I would be confident that the Spurs could get him to defend, but now I'm not so sure.


Edit: Whoever made that list above cherry-picked to make a point - just because of Roy, of no one else. By the time you get out of the Top 10 (Top 7, really), you can't afford to overlook 22 year-olds who are obviously NBA ready.

Sure, the parameters themselves (lottery, since 2004, 22 or older) were cherry-picked -- but, tbf, looks like Roy was 21, Butler was before 2004, and Granger, Nelson, West and Howard weren't in the lottery. It shouldn't be a hard and fast rule to not draft 22-year-olds in the lottery but a lot of the time it doesn't look like a great move in retrospect. Even the 2019 draft, the Suns going with old Cam Johnson for shooting when young shooter Tyler Herro was available already looks like a colossal mistake.

I still believe in Obi for the Spurs because he was somewhat a late bloomer who only recently grew to be as big as he is -- so I don't think he's the classic case of a four-year player who was just too mature and too experienced for anyone to deal with. I'd say Obi is more like Derrick White in that he had a late growth spurt and it took him longer to develop -- and he's probably still developing, in fact.

Two players I'd love in the second round, Desmond Bane and Grant Riller, are more your classic four-year players who dominated as a senior ... with a substantial part of their domination likely due to their maturity level.

[Dejounte]

Bumping this guy with Okoro down to my tier 2 lol...

Deni and Halliburton are my only tier 1 players (right now).

[ZeusWillJudge]

Sure, the parameters themselves (lottery, since 2004, 22 or older) were cherry-picked -- but, tbf, looks like Roy was 21, Butler was before 2004, and Granger, Nelson, West and Howard weren't in the lottery. It shouldn't be a hard and fast rule to not draft 22-year-olds in the lottery but a lot of the time it doesn't look like a great move in retrospect. Even the 2019 draft, the Suns going with old Cam Johnson for shooting when young shooter Tyler Herro was available already looks like a colossal mistake.

I still believe in Obi for the Spurs because he was somewhat a late bloomer who only recently grew to be as big as he is -- so I don't think he's the classic case of a four-year player who was just too mature and too experienced for anyone to deal with. I'd say Obi is more like Derrick White in that he had a late growth spurt and it took him longer to develop -- and he's probably still developing, in fact.

Two players I'd love in the second round, Desmond Bane and Grant Riller, are more your classic four-year players who dominated as a senior ... with a substantial part of their domination likely due to their maturity level.


Meh. I think Roy really was a few weeks shy of 22. Not the point I was trying to make. All I was saying is that in the high lottery, teams are looking for something different. That's where you hope to find the clear needle-movers. So, yeah, if you're looking for that out of a guy who wasn't good enough to declare early, you've got a good chance of being disappointed. A lot of guys who would be disappointing at 5 would be a lot more understandable at 20. Derrick White was an incredible pickup at 29, but at say 3 or 4 he would just be tolerable.

Once you move into the middle part of the draft, a lot of those solid-vet-type players are just what you should be looking for. The Spurs are right on the cusp at 11, but this draft isn't top-loaded like the year Roy was drafted, so it's less likely that a unicorn gets pushed down to the Spurs pick. A few of those overachieve, which is why I listed those guys who went out of the lottery.

[ZeusWillJudge]

Two players I'd love in the second round, Desmond Bane and Grant Riller, are more your classic four-year players who dominated as a senior ... with a substantial part of their domination likely due to their maturity level.


This draft has a bunch of guys that I covet in the late first and early second. Guys you probably wouldn't take at 11, but may not make it to 41. Riller and Bane are both on my list of looming regrets.

It's not a draft to get a generational player, but if you could pick five from 16-20 I think you would have a pretty strong chance at having 3 solid supporting NBA players in a couple of years, and a reasonable shot at striking gold with one of those.

[objective]

Don't think I like the comparisons with White in the context of age and players

I don't think it's a good comparison because White was a good defender in college. He had great block and steal numbers, and was pac-12 all defense

Frankly, all White needed to succeed in the NBA was better conditioning and getting used to the increased speed and strength of the NBA and adjusting to professional life.

His game is basically the same. Same lean on his jumper, though maybe toned down a little. Same pick and roll passing. If Draft Express hadn't removed their scouting videos you could check it out, it was all there.

Hell, there's a reason why halfway through his rookie year there were posters here declaring that he was already no worse than the fourth best guard on the roster, if not already the third best, and deserved minutes (that we all knew he would never get).

Now Murray did make huge defensive strides, but he was younger and had been under a terrible college coach who couldn't even make the tourney with multiple first round picks. Toppin hasn't had that excuse.

[Chinook]

Don't think I like the comparisons with White in the context of age and players.

I think you're taking the comparison in a way it's not intended. We're not talking about if they can get better. White was a more complete player for sure, just like Toppin is more explosive. We're talking about whether their college production was due to them being older. In that regard, I don't think it's true for either of them, because they were both "younger" than their age suggested, both in terms of experience and physical maturation.

It's correct that all White needed was for his game to transfer over, because he could do everything. He just needed to learn the NBA and get out of his way. The key for Toppin isn't going to be whether he can learn to be a good defender. It's whether his offense can translate. If it does THEN you can worry about him being good at defense. If Obi is a guy who can score 20 a night but plays terrible defense, that's still useful on a team with good defensive personnel that can hide him.

[Dejounte]

Do we have good defensive personnel? I don't think we'd be able to hide Toppin.

[Chinook]

Do we have good defensive personnel? I don't think we'd be able to hide Toppin.

Yes, the Spurs have good defensive personnel. They could use another guy like Paul Reed at 41, but they have defenders at all three levels.

[timvp]

If the Spurs draft Toppin, suddenly re-signing Poeltl is a priority. He's actually the perfect big to put next to him. You need a mobile big next to Toppin and Poeltl's best attribute is his mobility. You also need a big who is bulky enough to deal with the bigger centers who would overwhelm Toppin -- and, again, Poeltl fits that bill.

In a future where the bigs are Toppin and Poeltl, you give Poeltl the more difficult matchup and do your best to keep Toppin out of pick-and-roll situations. The goal would be allow Toppin to roam and be a shot-blocker. For as bad as he is on defense, I don't think Toppin could possibly be DeRozan bad. Get Toppin to concentrate on defending the rim and there's a chance he could be somewhere in the neighborhood of average.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vHxUiOd5RA8

[Chinook]

If the Spurs draft Toppin, suddenly re-signing Poeltl is a priority. He's actually the perfect big to put next to him. You need a mobile big next to Toppin and Poeltl's best attribute is his mobility. You also need a big who is bulky enough to deal with the bigger centers who would overwhelm Toppin -- and, again, Poeltl fits that bill.

In a future where the bigs are Toppin and Poeltl, you give Poeltl the more difficult matchup and do your best to keep Toppin out of pick-and-roll situations. The goal would be allow Toppin to roam and be a shot-blocker. For as bad as he is on defense, I don't think Toppin could possibly be DeRozan bad. Get Toppin to concentrate on defending the rim and there's a chance he could be somewhere in the neighborhood of average.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vHxUiOd5RA8

Yeah, I'm going to be extremely interested to see Obi's measurements. His wing-span has been listed anywhere from 6-11 to 7-3. If it's toward that upper end, Toppin might be able to be a Murray-esque free safety on defense. Let him jump passing lanes, get out if he's about the FTLE on rebounds, come off the weakside for blocks. Also let him go if he gets a rebound. You aren't going to make Toppin into some three-and-D guy, and you shouldn't want to. He'd be the first legit guy where you start thinking about how players fit around him, not how he fits with them.

I agree about Poeltl, and I've said for a while that I'd want the Spurs to prioritize getting out of the off-season with White, Walker, Johnson, Toppin and Poeltl on the roster. That unit has good potential on both ends, and I think it should be possible to get there AND have LMA, DMDR, Gay, Mills and Samanic still on the roster. Those latter five guys aren't nearly as important for me, but I think if that all occurs, the Spurs are a playoff team in terms of talent.

[objective]

I know the hope is there for him to improve on defense, and several internet scout guys think he can become average or at least neutral, but watching some of the weakness videos is disgusting. It's like Forbes and Joffrey got combined in a transporter accident.

And because he was largely going against non-majors I don't think he has the excuse of saving himself for offense like so many players get for their bad defense. Sure, he can get blocks against Omaha, Rhode Island, and schools I didn't know existed (Houston-Baptist???), but if he's getting smoked like this then he might be worse than DeRozan at PF.


https://youtu.be/1Qn_MFGT-rs


https://youtu.be/DH9XVYkX5k8

Jalen Smith has his issues on the P&R and with strength but he looks lightyears better on defense. I like his shot form better too. And if he was dumping his ass on Houston-Baptist and Omaha and Northeast-South-Springfield-Tech-Catholic-State like Toppin I think he'd be scoring more and getting the awards recognition. Toppin is a better passer, and flashier dunker.

Even Precious Achiuwa's clips of bad defense don't come as close to making me swear like Toppin.

BUT in almost every draft, at least in the first round, I usually look for the better defenders. I'm guilty of that, maybe his offense blows that out of the water.

[Dejounte]

Forbes level defense?
https://media.tenor.com/images/410e1953099780df81af844e602cc14e/tenor.gifhttps://i.gifer.com/DnLB.gif

[Seventyniner]

I agree about Poeltl, and I've said for a while that I'd want the Spurs to prioritize getting out of the off-season with White, Walker, Johnson, Toppin and Poeltl on the roster. That unit has good potential on both ends, and I think it should be possible to get there AND have LMA, DMDR, Gay, Mills and Samanic still on the roster. Those latter five guys aren't nearly as important for me, but I think if that all occurs, the Spurs are a playoff team in terms of talent.

I notice you don't have Murray on the list. Is that because you think Toppin is good enough that the Spurs should try to trade Murray + #11 for a high enough pick to be assured of getting Toppin?

[Chinook]

I notice you don't have Murray on the list. Is that because you think Toppin is good enough that the Spurs should try to trade Murray + #11 for a high enough pick to be assured of getting Toppin?

Yes, basically at least. I think he's 11th on the team in terms of who I want to have on the roster. I'm not against DJM being on the team or anything, especially if he's okay with coming off the bench, but he's definitely a guy I'd want to deal first if they can get value from it. Despite what some people say here, I think he still has really good value, especially as it relates to this draft. Wouldn't surprise me to see some lotto teams willing to trade their pick for DeJounte straight up. Dude might well have more value than White, even if I think it's pretty much settle that Derrick is the better player.

[Dejounte]

Yes, basically at least. I think he's 11th on the team in terms of who I want to have on the roster. I'm not against DJM being on the team or anything, especially if he's okay with coming off the bench, but he's definitely a guy I'd want to deal first if they can get value from it. Despite what some people say here, I think he still has really good value, especially as it relates to this draft. Wouldn't surprise me to see some lotto teams willing to trade their pick for DeJounte straight up. Dude might well have more value than White, even if I think it's pretty much settle that Derrick is the better player.

This is very much true. I've seen posts from fans of other teams being shocked that Spurs fans want to trade DJ. His value, with fans at least, is high from people outside of Spurs fandom.

[Seventyniner]

Yes, basically at least. I think he's 11th on the team in terms of who I want to have on the roster. I'm not against DJM being on the team or anything, especially if he's okay with coming off the bench, but he's definitely a guy I'd want to deal first if they can get value from it. Despite what some people say here, I think he still has really good value, especially as it relates to this draft. Wouldn't surprise me to see some lotto teams willing to trade their pick for DeJounte straight up. Dude might well have more value than White, even if I think it's pretty much settle that Derrick is the better player.

Murray to Detroit for #7 looks like a win-win to me. They have so many players on rookie contracts and so little salary committed that they could use a "veteran", especially one under team control for the next 4 years at a reasonable price. They also have enough cap space that salary matching is not required, and a trade exception would be quite useful to the Spurs. But I haven't looked at other teams.

[D-Robinson 50 fan]

Murray to Detroit for #7 looks like a win-win to me. They have so many players on rookie contracts and so little salary committed that they could use a "veteran", especially one under team control for the next 4 years at a reasonable price. They also have enough cap space that salary matching is not required, and a trade exception would be quite useful to the Spurs. But I haven't looked at other teams.


That would be an awesome trade for the Spurs! Too bad it isn't going to happen.....

We all can dream

[Ed Helicopter Jones]

I wonder if the Spurs could leverage their 2nd rounder to move up in the draft a few spots if they see someone they like. Heck, throw Mills and an S&T with Forbes in there to sweeten the pot.

[objective]

Someone made a loose comparison on reddit that clicked for me.

Derrick Williams.

Williams was a big time player as a sophomore, PAC-12 player of the year, and per 100 possessions was basically Obi Toppin. Except that besides all the highlight dunks, Williams shot 58%!!!! from 3.

And he just wasn't a good NBA player. Great dunker though, he was in a dunk contest. But the shot wasn't real. And the other stuff wasn't real either. Here's a guy who was dropping 32 against Duke in the tourney, nailing threes, thunderous dunks off putbacks, fierce driving dunks off the dribble from the three point line, sharp passes out of double teams to buckets ... But it just didn't click at all. Hell, I remember there being a lot of talk that Williams should go #1 that year.

I get that vibe from Toppin. I don't believe in his shot, and of course don't believe in his defense. He'll be in a dunk contest jumping over a moped or a fleet of drones or some nonsense, and every year there will be a youtube video featuring his 10 best dunks of the year, and that's about what I expect for him. Averaging between 15-25 minutes, scoring from 8-12 points with some bad defense.

[R. DeMurre]

Someone made a loose comparison on reddit that clicked for me.

Derrick Williams.

Williams was a big time player as a sophomore, PAC-12 player of the year, and per 100 possessions was basically Obi Toppin. Except that besides all the highlight dunks, Williams shot 58%!!!! from 3.

And he just wasn't a good NBA player. Great dunker though, he was in a dunk contest. But the shot wasn't real. And the other stuff wasn't real either. Here's a guy who was dropping 32 against Duke in the tourney, nailing threes, thunderous dunks off putbacks, fierce driving dunks off the dribble from the three point line, sharp passes out of double teams to buckets ... But it just didn't click at all. Hell, I remember there being a lot of talk that Williams should go #1 that year.

I get that vibe from Toppin. I don't believe in his shot, and of course don't believe in his defense. He'll be in a dunk contest jumping over a moped or a fleet of drones or some nonsense, and every year there will be a youtube video featuring his 10 best dunks of the year, and that's about what I expect for him. Averaging between 15-25 minutes, scoring from 8-12 points with some bad defense.

Same with Michael Beasley-- flashy, unstoppable in college... the complete absence of IQ on defense is a big red flag.

[kobyz]

Someone made a loose comparison on reddit that clicked for me.

Derrick Williams.

Williams was a big time player as a sophomore, PAC-12 player of the year, and per 100 possessions was basically Obi Toppin. Except that besides all the highlight dunks, Williams shot 58%!!!! from 3.

And he just wasn't a good NBA player. Great dunker though, he was in a dunk contest. But the shot wasn't real. And the other stuff wasn't real either. Here's a guy who was dropping 32 against Duke in the tourney, nailing threes, thunderous dunks off putbacks, fierce driving dunks off the dribble from the three point line, sharp passes out of double teams to buckets ... But it just didn't click at all. Hell, I remember there being a lot of talk that Williams should go #1 that year.

I get that vibe from Toppin. I don't believe in his shot, and of course don't believe in his defense. He'll be in a dunk contest jumping over a moped or a fleet of drones or some nonsense, and every year there will be a youtube video featuring his 10 best dunks of the year, and that's about what I expect for him. Averaging between 15-25 minutes, scoring from 8-12 points with some bad defense.

He has much better patience as a scorer than Williams, He's like a Rui Hachimora who's doing well as a rookie but more athletic version, like even a little Dominiq Wilkins in him, he's gonna translate as offensive player

[Dejounte]

https://twitter.com/AhbAnalytics/status/1314235528540123136?s=19

[ginobilized]

Maybe I am missing something with Toppin, but, I do not get the interest in him. It's actually hard for me to visualize him on an NBA court and moving with the requisite speed and fluidity.
I deeply hope that either I am wrong or that the Spurs look elsewhere.

[Dejounte]

Maybe I am missing something with Toppin, but, I do not get the interest in him. It's actually hard for me to visualize him on an NBA court and moving with the requisite speed and fluidity.
I deeply hope that either I am wrong or that the Spurs look elsewhere.

It's the high scoring output and the insane dunking highlights that have reeled people in.

[MultiTroll]

Are you making some of these names up?

[look_at_g_shred]

Have never been sold on him. I'd be really disappointed if we drafted him.

[gambit1990]

his name is spurs material.

[playblair]

Have never been sold on him. I'd be really disappointed if we drafted him.
you dont watch college basketball then.........

[Chinook]

It'd be insane to be upset about drafting Toppin at 11.

[Thomas82]

Maybe the Hornets draft him at #3.

[duncan2k5]

Aren't Toppin and Poeltl somewhat redundant on offense? Without a respectable jumper, where does Poeltl space to in order to allow Toppin room to roll to the rim?

White/Walker/Johnson/Toppin/Aldridge would be far better imo. If giving up DeRozan can get the Spurs far enough up the draft board to get Toppin then that lineup can happen.

AD played with Howard or McGee at center the entire season and still had plenty of time runs

[R. DeMurre]

Brandon Clarke's advanced stats from his last season in college are so much more impressive than Toppin's, and against better competition. And Clarke had defensive chops & results in college. It's interesting that he slipped so much, but Toppin is still seen as being worthy of getting picked 15+ spots higher than him. I dunno, I just see a lot of red flags with this guy. His growth between years one and two at Dayton is relatively small, and his terrible defense wasn't against good competition, like Zion, Clarke, and others-- it was mostly against guys younger than him who aren't close to being NBA prospects. If his absolute highest ceiling is, say, Blake Griffin, is he a good pick? I think he's one of those players that wins you a bunch of games while also guaranteeing you can't compete for a championship... so, another DeMar DeRozan, another Blake Griffin... Is the goal of the Spurs to win more games fast, or to compete for a championship in a few years? If it's the latter, I think Toppin just becomes another problem to deal with. Do we want a future 47 win team built around a significant defensive liability? I don't.

[Dejounte]

Brandon Clarke's advanced stats from his last season in college are so much more impressive than Toppin's, and against better competition. And Clarke had defensive chops & results in college. It's interesting that he slipped so much, but Toppin is still seen as being worthy of getting picked 15+ spots higher than him. I dunno, I just see a lot of red flags with this guy. His growth between years one and two at Dayton is relatively small, and his terrible defense wasn't against good competition, like Zion, Clarke, and others-- it was mostly against guys younger than him who aren't close to being NBA prospects. If his absolute highest ceiling is, say, Blake Griffin, is he a good pick? I think he's one of those players that wins you a bunch of games while also guaranteeing you can't compete for a championship... so, another DeMar DeRozan, another Blake Griffin... Is the goal of the Spurs to win more games fast, or to compete for a championship in a few years? If it's the latter, I think Toppin just becomes another problem to deal with. Do we want a future 47 win team built around a significant defensive liability? I don't.

And this post is how I think the Spurs operate... Always thinking ahead in years.

[Chinook]

Brandon Clarke's advanced stats from his last season in college are so much more impressive than Toppin's, and against better competition. And Clarke had defensive chops & results in college. It's interesting that he slipped so much, but Toppin is still seen as being worthy of getting picked 15+ spots higher than him. I dunno, I just see a lot of red flags with this guy. His growth between years one and two at Dayton is relatively small, and his terrible defense wasn't against good competition, like Zion, Clarke, and others-- it was mostly against guys younger than him who aren't close to being NBA prospects. If his absolute highest ceiling is, say, Blake Griffin, is he a good pick? I think he's one of those players that wins you a bunch of games while also guaranteeing you can't compete for a championship... so, another DeMar DeRozan, another Blake Griffin... Is the goal of the Spurs to win more games fast, or to compete for a championship in a few years? If it's the latter, I think Toppin just becomes another problem to deal with. Do we want a future 47 win team built around a significant defensive liability? I don't.

Why didn't you compare Toppin to Zion while you were at it ? Clarke was an absolute uber that last year in school. It's not even remotely fair to compare Brandon to anyone the Spurs have a chance at drafting in that regard.

And what the hell? Of course DeRozan and Griffin would be great picks at 11. They'd be fine picks at 1. All-NBAers don't just grow on trees.

I'm sorry. There are reasons to be skeptical of Toppin. But saying, "He didn't play as well as Brandon Clarke" or "His ceiling may only be Blake Griffin" aren't among them.

[R. DeMurre]

I'm sorry. There are reasons to be skeptical of Toppin. But saying, "He didn't play as well as Brandon Clarke" or "His ceiling may only be Blake Griffin" aren't among them.

My point was his absolute highest ceiling is Blake Griffin, and it's unlikely he achieves that. I don't want a Michael Beasley at #11. I think the Brandon Clarke comparison makes sense because he's an effective player that has lower expectations, but isn't viewed as a guy you'd (mistakenly) build a team around, like Amar'e or Blake. I'd rather have a useful glue guy who could be a piece in the future, rather than a flawed "star" who will make a championship nearly impossible, in the same way that I wouldn't trade Derrick White for Russell Westbrook. Is White better than Westbrook? No. But if the Spurs can somehow find a superstar to lead them in the next few years, White would be able to play alongside him, and Westbrook wouldn't.

[Chinook]

My point was his absolute highest ceiling is Blake Griffin, and it's unlikely he achieves that. I don't want a Micheal Beasley at #11. I think the Brandon Clarke comparison makes sense because he's an effective player that has lower expectations, but isn't viewed as a guy you'd (mistakenly) build a team around, like Amar'e or Blake. I'd rather have a useful glue guy who could be a piece in the future, rather than a flawed "star" who will make a championship nearly impossible, in the same way that I wouldn't trade Derrick White for Russell Westbrook. Is White better than Westbrook? No. But if the Spurs can somehow find a superstar to lead them in the next few years, White would be able to play alongside him, and Westbrook wouldn't.

Clarke has superstar stats. There are plenty of NBA stars who didn't outperform Brandon in college. It's a bad comparison. And a Griffin ceiling is a high ceiling. You have borked expectations in both regards.

And no, on the same money, and at the same age, I'd totally take Westbrook. Russ is a HoFer. In the very least you take Westbrook and trade him for four firsts. White couldn't and didn't lead his team to the playoffs. Russ hasn't missed them in years.

This is the kind of mentality that makes folks overpay for Robert Covington. Role-players have nothing on stars. It's great to have Cov over nothing, but you're farther from a title with him than DeRozan.

[R. DeMurre]

Clarke has superstar stats. There are plenty of NBA stars who didn't outperform Brandon in college. It's a bad comparison. And a Griffin ceiling is a high ceiling. You have borked expectations in both regards.

And no, on the same money, and at the same age, I'd totally take Westbrook. Russ is a HoFer. In the very least you take Westbrook and trade him for four firsts.

This is the kind of mentality that makes folks overpay for Robert Covington. Role-players have nothing on stars. It's great to have Cov over nothing, but you're farther from a title with him than DeRozan.

1. Clarke has great advanced stats, but he's still coming off the bench for a borderline playoff team. Memphis isn't changing their approach to build around Clarke as their main (or future highest paid) star.
2. Obviously, the Westbrook for White analogy is meant for now, not in a make believe world where they're the same age and available in the same draft, or make the same salary.
3. Overpaying for Covington? What does that have to do with anything? That's not something I'd ever advocate for.

[Chinook]

1. Clarke has great advanced stats, but he's still coming off the bench for a borderline playoff team. Memphis isn't changing their approach to build around Clarke as their main (or future highest paid) star.

Yes, and that's my point. Clarke had tremendous stats, better than those most superstars put up in school. There's zero reason to use that to argue Toppin isn't as good as him or won't be. And I am like the biggest Clarke homer here, but the only player that would've had Brandon's stats was Wiseman. You're using Clarke as some baseline, since you think he's a borderline player for a borderline team and thus anyone worth a crap should be better than him. But that doesn't make sense. No one else in this draft (save Wiseman) was better than Clarke either.


2. Obviously, the Westbrook for White analogy is meant for now, not in a make believe world where they're the same age and available in the same draft, or make the same salary.

No... It's meant to show how a player who has a great role-player skill-set is a better get than a star. Russ has an awful contract and is old now. The point you were making is that drafting someone with the ceiling of Blake or DeRozan is somehow bad because you 'can't win with that'. Pound for pound, Westbrook runs circles around White. If there were two players in the draft with those two as equally likely ceilings, the one mirroring Westbrook is the better get. You cross the bridge of not being able to win a title with him when you get good enough to worry about that.


3. Overpaying for Covington? What does that have to do with anything? That's not something I'd ever advocate for.

It has to do with you having a weird and skewed view on what "winning players" are. Cov is a good enough piece, but in now way, shape or form is he better than a star. It doesn't matter that he can slot into more lineups and do his thing. It doesn't matter that his advanced stats are great. He's arguably the most extreme version of what you were going for with White. If you told me there was a player at 11 who'd definitely be the next Covington, I'd gladly draft him, unless there was a guy who would almost certainly become a poor man's Blake or DMDR with a chance of being as good as the genuine article. I'd certainly love for there to be a way to draft both players, but the star is the easy choice.

[R. DeMurre]

No... It's meant to show how a player who has a great role-player skill-set is a better get than a star...



I specifically said flawed "star," with the word star in quotes and the word flawed crucially important to the argument. You changed that to me making an argument that role players are better than stars. Sorry, but you're being disingenuous. My analogy specifically refers to highly flawed star like Westbrook being more harm than good in the pursuit of a championship. And that's also how I feel about Toppin. A big who's likely going to be a career defensive liability isn't a guy I think the Spurs should pursue.

[Chinook]

I specifically said flawed "star," with the word star in quotes and the word flawed crucially important to the argument. You changed that to me making an argument that role players are better than stars. Sorry, but you're being disingenuous. My analogy specifically refers to highly flawed star like Westbrook being more harm than good in the pursuit of a championship. And that's also how I feel about Toppin. A big who's likely going to be a career defensive liability isn't a guy I think the Spurs should pursue.

I don't have an issue with your last sentence in a vacuum. It's when you try to extend it that it goes wrong. Griffin, Westbrook, Aldridge, DeRozan -- they're all way better than one can realistically expect typical high picks to be. It doesn't matter that they aren't bedrocks to title teams, because the guys like White aren't either. There are so few championship cornerstones in the NBA.

I didn't miss your point. You're doubling down on what I pointed out as flawed reasoning by thinking that mentioning Westbrook's warts changes anything. This isn't a guy like Crawford who scores a lot of points but has been a net-negative his whole career. We're talking about an MVP who's been to the playoffs almost every year of his career and has played deep in the post-season multiple times. Right now, being old and expensive, Russ's ability to help a team is pretty low. But when he was White's age, he was a far better player. Yes, Westbrook could make a random bone-headed decision to lose a game, but he also made a bunch of plays to keep his team in the game before that. That's not something White or any other player of his ilk is going to do consistently.

So yeah, not liking Toppin for his defense, age, position, etc. is defensible, even if I disagree. But considering Clarke's senior-year production as some rite of passage for good players or thinking assigning a flawed-star ceiling is a red flag really isn't. I like Toppin quite a bit, and I don't have confidence he has a higher ceiling than any of those players. I just also have no confidence that anyone else in the draft does.

[Drom John]

The Ringer: 2020 NBA Mock Draft: What If LaMelo Ball Slips?: Mock Draft updated 11.3
by Kevin O'Connor


11
Obi Toppin Obi Toppin
San Antonio Spurs Logo San Antonio Spurs
San Antonio Spurs

Spurs fans should be ecstatic if Toppin falls to no. 11 and gets to develop in San Antonio’s system. Toppin would benefit from Gregg Popovich’s teachings on the defensive end and a top-notch strength and conditioning program. Toppin could also make for a juicy pick-and-roll fit with Dejounte Murray as a lob threat or pop-out shooter.
OBI TOPPIN
Big, Dayton, redshirt sophomore

Athleticism Athleticism
Interior Scoring Interior Scoring
Shot Blocking Shot Blocking
PTS 20.0 25.3 per 40
REB 7.5 9.5 per 40
EFG% 67.4 387 FGA
3PT% 39.0 82 3PA

Age22.2
Wingspan6'11''
Height6'9''
Weight220

Pure athlete who runs the floor with grace and jumps with explosive power.
Shades Of: Amar'e Stoudemire, Kyle Kuzma, Bouncy Marcus Morris
PLUSES

Glides through the air for ferocious dunks; he’s a major threat in the pick-and-roll, cutting, and running the break. He also possesses a soft touch with either hand around the rim.
Nimble ball handler who can attack from the perimeter; he’ll be a weapon in fake dribble handoffs since he can facilitate, shoot, or get to the basket.
Good shooter from NBA 3-point range, but he hasn’t fallen in love with his shot like many modern bigs.
Strong playmaker. He makes quick decisions out of the short roll and could develop into a playmaking hub from the post.
Has the leaping ability and quickness to theoretically be an effective shot blocker.

MINUSES

Brutal pick-and-roll defender who displays little recognition or feel for reading a screen; he’s almost always out of position.
High center of gravity limits his defensive ability in the post. He’ll often get pushed around for low-post positioning—Zion would bury him under the rim.
Doesn’t change directions well laterally; he has tight hips, which means NBA offenses will attack him relentlessly one-on-one.
Poor help defender and rebounder who doesn’t play with great awareness or effort.
Lacks an arsenal of low-post scoring moves and is raw shooting off the dribble.

[Chinook]

Would be a dream come true.

[R. DeMurre]

MINUSES

Brutal pick-and-roll defender who displays little recognition or feel for reading a screen; he’s almost always out of position.
High center of gravity limits his defensive ability in the post. He’ll often get pushed around for low-post positioning—Zion would bury him under the rim.
Doesn’t change directions well laterally; he has tight hips, which means NBA offenses will attack him relentlessly one-on-one.
Poor help defender and rebounder who doesn’t play with great awareness or effort.
Lacks an arsenal of low-post scoring moves and is raw shooting off the dribble

.


Would be a dream come true.

Honest question: I get that you like his instant offense, but does the bad D, poor instincts, feel, effort, IQ, etc scare you at all? Do you view Toppin as a guy to legitimately build around, or do you think he'll put up big numbers like a young Blake Griffin and become a potentially valuable trade piece in the future?

[Chinook]

Honest question: I get that you like his instant offense, but does the bad D, poor instincts, feel, effort, IQ, etc scare you at all? Do you view Toppin as a guy to legitimately build around, or do you think he'll put up big numbers like a young Blake Griffin and become a potentially valuable trade piece in the future?

I think you're selling him sort offensively. That same post you quoted talked about how promising his play-making is. That doesn't suggest a bad feel or IQ. It doesn't scare me at all that he's a bad defender. That's something the team would have to deal with once they become good enough to worry about. His offense would make all of the young guys better. My hope for the draft was to pick up a defensive four to compliment a White, Walker, DeRozan, _____, Aldridge lineup. I'd still be happy with that, but I'm also down for picking up a guy to slot into the future White, Walker, Johnson, _______ Poeltl lineup. Toppin joining that unit raises the ceiling by a lot more than a defensive four would.

[R. DeMurre]

I think you're selling him sort offensively. That same post you quoted talked about how promising his play-making is. That doesn't suggest a bad feel or IQ. It doesn't scare me at all that he's a bad defender. That's something the team would have to deal with once they become good enough to worry about. His offense would make all of the young guys better. My hope for the draft was to pick up a defensive four to compliment a White, Walker, DeRozan, _____, Aldridge lineup. I'd still be happy with that, but I'm also down for picking up a guy to slot into the future White, Walker, Johnson, _______ Poeltl lineup. Toppin joining that unit raises the ceiling by a lot more than a defensive four would.

Blake Griffin has also been a good play-maker his entire career, with a much better than average assist rate for a PF. I just don't see building around a guy that most scouts agree is relatively clueless at least 50% of the time he's on the floor. My fear is come playoff time, even if he's averaging 22/8, he becomes the huge target of opposing offenses and efficient superstars-- similar to DeRozan's mediocre advanced stats (for a star) being markedly worse during his playoff stints. So while I'll agree with you that he raises the ceiling, my worry is he's the classic case, as a centerpiece, of short term gain/long term loss-- not in the sense of wins or playoff appearances, but in terms of championship probability.

[Chinook]

Blake Griffin has also been a good play-maker his entire career, with a much better than average assist rate for a PF. I just don't see building around a guy that most scouts agree is relatively clueless at least 50% of the time he's on the floor. My fear is come playoff time, even if he's averaging 22/8, he becomes the huge target of opposing offenses and efficient superstars-- similar to DeRozan's mediocre advanced stats (for a star) being markedly worse during his playoff stints. So while I'll agree with you that he raises the ceiling, my worry is he's the classic case, as a centerpiece, of short term gain/long term loss-- not in the sense of wins or playoff appearances, but in terms of championship probability.

Ugh, man are we going to talk about this again? You literally can't expect to get more impactful players and Griffin or DeRozan at 11 (or 2). They are both top-30 players of the past decade. It's completely illogical to not want Toppin because you think "at best he'll only be an All-Star --level scorer and not a championship centerpiece". You'd have to build around him, or trade him and move on. But if the issue is that with Toppin as the best player the Spurs are just a consistent playoff team that struggles to get out of the second round, that's way better than any of the young guys on the roster and honestly in the draft project to be.

Who do you want in the draft that you think will be better than you think Toppin will be?

[DAF86]

Meh, I think I would rather draft the next Danny Green or Robert Horry, than the next DeRozan or Blake Griffin, tbh.

I understand that drafting an all-star level player, even if extremely flawed, is an absolute win, but meh, what's the point of drafting a guy that will raise your floor quick but will also keep you out of true contention for years to come? I don't know, I'm torn about this. Sometimes I lean one way, sometimes the other. Just draft the Marfan demi-God and start collecting rings. :lol

[Sugus]

Meh, I think I would rather draft the next Danny Green or Robert Horry, than the next DeRozan or Blake Griffin, tbh.

I understand that drafting an all-star level player, even if extremely flawed, is an absolute win, but meh, what's the point of drafting a guy that will raise your floor quick but will also keep you out of true contention for years to come? I don't know, I'm torn about this. Sometimes I lean one way, sometimes the other. Just draft the Marfan demi-God and start collecting rings. :lol

I'm on the same boat, tbh, not high on Toppin at all even if he falls down to #11. I'm not even convinced he's gonna be an All-Star either, even if he does put up good counting stats. But more than anything, if the Spurs are looking to draft a flawed or one-dimensional player, I'd much rather he be the defensive type - someone like Okongwu, who has a lot of offensive question marks/raw game - than an offense-only, turnstyle on D kinda player like Toppin.

But no Marfan DemiGod, please. The league just isn't ready for him on the Spurs... :lol

[R. DeMurre]

You literally can't expect to get more impactful players and Griffin or DeRozan at 11 (or 2). They are both top-30 players of the past decade.


This is where we disagree. Sorry, DeRozan is not even close to being a top 30 player of the last decade in my eyes. DeRozan wasn't even top 50 in RPM for SFs this season, and was 288th overall in the league. How is it every other legit star-- LeBron, Giannis, Jokic, Leonard, Lowry, Doncic, Curry, Siakam, Butler, Tatum, etc., etc.-- managed to be near the top of this statistical category, and almost without exception leads his individual team in it, while DeRozan tests year after year (and moreso in the playoffs) like an average player at best, and at worst a liability?

[Chinook]

This is where we disagree. Sorry, DeRozan is not even close to being a top 30 player of the last decade in my eyes. DeRozan wasn't even top 50 in RPM for SFs this season, and was 288th overall in the league. How is it every other legit star-- LeBron, Giannis, Jokic, Leonard, Lowry, Doncic, Curry, Siakam, Butler, Tatum, etc., etc.-- managed to be near the top of this statistical category, and almost without exception leads his individual team in it, while DeRozan tests year after year (and moreso in the playoffs) like an average player at best, and at worst a liability?

I mean, Siakam isn't a legit star? RPM's not a good stat for determining who the stars are. Some do well; others don't. Calling the who do "legit" doesn't change that.

You claimed before that you weren't making the Robert Covington argument, but you're really getting into Covington territory.

[R. DeMurre]

RPM's not a good stat for determining who the stars are. Some do well; others don't. Calling the who do "legit" doesn't change that.

Every single guy who finished in the top 12 for MVP voting this year finished in the top 35 for RPM. Again, DeRozan was 288th. DeRozan wasn't a top 30 player in the NBA this season, never mind including all the other seasons of the decade. And, yes, there is occasionally an outlier in the ranks of RPM, but the vast majority of the time the top players in RPM align strongly with the top MVP candidates. It's a much greater predictor of success and effectiveness than big empty stats or All Star fan votes.

[TD 21]

I wouldn't lump Griffin in with DeRozan. He was a top 10 player for a while and when relatively healthy has comfortably been a top 15-20 one for a decade.

Siakam's had one of the strangest careers to this point, but the jury is still out on whether he's a legit star.

I could see both sides of this one, but in a vacuum I'm not sure any of this should matter in Toppin's case and I say that as someone who suspects he'll be more like Randle (empty calories) than a legit star. He wouldn't inherently cap their ceiling in the way acquiring a prime DeRozan does.

[Chinook]

Every single guy who finished in the top 12 for MVP voting this year finished in the top 35 for RPM. Again, DeRozan was 288th. DeRozan wasn't a top 30 player in the NBA this season, never mind including all the other seasons of the decade. And, yes, there is occasionally an outlier in the ranks of RPM, but the vast majority of the time the top players in RPM align strongly with the top MVP candidates. It's a much greater predictor of success and effectiveness than big empty stats or All Star fan votes.

Part of being a top player for a decade is that other guys will rise and fall during that time. Like even if Siakam is better than DeRozan -- and that's not true -- he still isn't ahead of DeRozan for the last decade because he only had two years of even seemingly star-level play in that time. RPM is not a stat to rank players based on how "good" they are. It's explicitly not supposed to be used that way. You're not supposed to look at it and go "Well Danny Green had a higher RPM than DeRozan -- so I'd rather have Green." You're supposed to look at it and say, "Green is better at being a role-player than DeRozan is at being a star." The stat doesn't account for role yet the way it has rankings makes people think it does.

That's why I keep bringing up Covington, because you're using that same logic that keeps overvaluing him. His impact stats keep getting him rated as this really valuable piece, worth lotto picks and such. And it ignores that any team bad enough to have those picks probably isn't at a point where Covington helps them. Dude's been a high-impact guy for six years and only made the playoffs twice, with one of those times being when he was traded to a playoff team and both of those times being when there was at least one player clearly better than him on the roster. That's not to say that he doesn't have more value than a draft bust. Like not every player in the league has nearly the career he's had so far. If you told me the Spurs could draft the next Covington or Green, I'd be all for that.

But in this scenario, you're locking in that there's also a guy who could be there with an All-NBA ceiling. In that case, I'd love to grab a second first to get that Covington/Green, but if I can't, then it's the star all day. And yes, blah blah, flawed. But you can always build around/trade away flawed stars, especially early in their careers. Even on that stupid max deal, Wiggins was the main piece desired in the Butler trade. Heck Zach Lavine was actually traded as that main piece, and he's basically as bad. Winning a title is not a linear thing. The Spurs were a soft contender for years before they drafted Duncan. Even with Duncan, the Spurs were just mild contenders before they found the Medium Three. The idea that you can suck until you get a franchise piece and then you keep that piece and ride it until an eventual title. It's never that straight-forward. In 1999 the Spurs had a veteran core that had been trying to make it as a contender before Duncan, sure 2003 was peak Tim doing it mostly on his own, but that was already after the point where he could've walked. Obviously James and O'Neal didn't stay with their teams.

The Toppin you suggested would clearly be the best young player on the team, and upgrading in that area has to be the top goal of the Spurs in this draft. The real Toppin, as has been mentioned before, may not be that guy. He has flaws and warning signs. Not drafting him in the real world is something that could be justified and vindicated. But the Spurs would be lucky to be a second-round-ceiling playoff team any time soon.

[DPG21920]

Toppin at 11 is a no brainer. Even if he’s a bust.

[R. DeMurre]

That's why I keep bringing up Covington, because you're using that same logic that keeps overvaluing him. His impact stats keep getting him rated as this really valuable piece, worth lotto picks and such. And it ignores that any team bad enough to have those picks probably isn't at a point where Covington helps them. Dude's been a high-impact guy for six years and only made the playoffs twice, with one of those times being when he was traded to a playoff team and both of those times being when there was at least one player clearly better than him on the roster. That's not to say that he doesn't have more value than a draft bust. Like not every player in the league has nearly the career he's had so far. If you told me the Spurs could draft the next Covington or Green, I'd be all for that.



Covington is your one choice as a supposed outlier to continue using in this debate. You've now mentioned him three times, while I've never brought him up. The guys I'm using as examples are the best players on winning teams, who also have the best advanced stats on those teams (in the RPM post)-- as opposed specifically to DeRozan-- or valuable role players whose advanced stats show a true value beyond raw numbers. You keep bringing up Covington, a guy who was featured on a team that went 10-72, and whose career ORtf/DRtg is 103/105, which rates as upside down from an advanced stats perspective, so not a hidden gem or under-the-radar guy at all. Covington's career BPM is +0.5, meaning he barely makes a difference. Last year in 22 games with Houston, his BPM was +0.1. He's had a few moments here and there where he looked good for a minute, but from an advanced stat perspective he's nothing special at all.

[objective]

heard an interesting comparison on a couple of draft-related podcasts

Toppin is basically Brandon Clarke if Clarke was a terrible defender instead of one of the best defenders in college for a decade

Older players who are scoring at the rim as great lob threats and who are stretching out to be passable three point shooters. Toppin is a little bigger, maybe +2.5-3.0 on the wingspan and 1 inch taller.

And yet Clarke and the idea of him going even in the end of the lottery would have been unthinkable. He showed he was capable of being a good role player and drafted too low.

But Toppin is a horrible defender and people go crazy over him.

I'm out on Obi.

[Chinook]

Huh? Clarke was rumored to go in the top 10. To think it would have been a shock for him to go in the mid teens is weird. And Toppin is nothing like Clarke offensively. Such a lazy comparison. And mind you I was huge on Clarke.

[mo7888]

Toppin at 11 is a no brainer. Even if he’s a bust.

Yup

[TD 21]

If the Hornets stay put at 3 and reach on Okongwu (apparently a possibility), that would mean either Avdija or Toppin falls to 6.

At that point, would the Spurs/Hawks pull the trigger on DeRozan and 11 for 6?

Toppin doesn't seem an ideal Spurs type player on the surface, but neither were Aldridge/Gay/DeRozan, yet the need for offensive centerpiece types superseded that.

At this writing, the youth doesn't feature someone projected to become that and Aldridge/DeRozan have one foot out the door.

[Sugus]

If the Hornets stay put at 3 and reach on Okongwu (apparently a possibility), that would mean either Avdija or Toppin falls to 6.

At that point, would the Spurs/Hawks pull the trigger on DeRozan and 11 for 6?

Toppin doesn't seem an ideal Spurs type player on the surface, but neither were Aldridge/Gay/DeRozan, yet the need for offensive centerpiece types superseded that.

At this writing, the youth doesn't feature someone projected to become that and Aldridge/DeRozan have one foot out the door.

That's more like it. I'm becoming more and more convinced that the Spurs are not looking to trade up into the uncertain top-pick territory, but the more certain mid-top-lottery (is that a thing? I'm making it a thing) spots. I don't like Toppin AT ALL, so I'd much rather they go with Deni, but tbh any prospect at that stage that the Spurs deem good enough to trade up for would be good enough to me. Add to that the addition-by-substraction that getting rid of DeRozan would signify, and we're golden. But tbh, I'd hope the Spurs try to mangle some deal where they add someone like Patty or Dejounte to the deal instead of #11, just because this draft seems perfect to have multiple FRPs on. But I'd be fine with losing 11 if that's what it takes.

Can't wait for draft night, tbh. I've never been more involved with a draft before. I can see the Spurs trading up, staying put, or even trading down, all with good options given each scenario... Must be stressful to work in the FO.

[R. DeMurre]

The closer I look at it, the more I think there's a non-0% chance Obi falls to the Spurs. I wouldn't classify it as a good chance but it's difficult to find a landing spot for him in the top ten.

Minnesota: Would they really put a non-defensive big next to KAT? That'd be dumb.

Golden State: They have Draymond and Obi wouldn't be too helpful as a small ball center.

Charlotte: MJ likes going with the most well-known college player but, then again, they just drafted PJ Washington in the lottery last year and he was a started all year. You can't start Washington and Obi together.

Cleveland: Their guards are so bad at defense that picking Obi would defensive suicide. Plus, with Love and Drummond, things would get awkward pretty quickly.

Chicago: They already have an offensive, no-defense big in Markkanen.

Atlanta: Obi next to John Collins would be the worst defensive big pairing in the league.

Detroit: They have Blake Griffin and, more importantly, they desperately need guards.

Knicks: They have a ton of power forward who are light on defense. Would they draft another one? It's possible but they too need guards.

Washington: Rui looks like he's their power forward of the future. Add in Bertans, who they are expected to re-sign, and I don't see the fit here.

Phoenix: They have Saric and Cam Johnson. Ayton doesn't have good defensive instincts so pairing him with Obi would be dangerous.

The best fits for Obi are behind the Spurs: Portland, Boston, New Orleans, Orlando, etc.

The most likely team to pick Obi before the Spurs I guess would be the Cavs. He's an in-state product and it's not like they know what they're doing anyways. The Knicks are another team that would just draft him for the name.


Have to agree with most of these. I'll leave out Golden State because they're a unique case, but when was the last time a top draft pick looked like a dumb, suicidal, or dangerous pick for nine of the worst teams in the league? Are Toppin's shortcomings so egregious that he negates the whole Best Player Available concept?

[Chinook]

The only short-comings than can negate that are off-the-court red flags. If you think a guy is talented but his health or behavior might prevent him from playing, then you pass. But if you're a team that lacks young talent, you don't pass on BPA with excuses about flaws. If a guy is still BPA even after accounting for flaws, you take him and hope you can coach him up or scheme around the flaws. You're almost by definition saying that everyone else has flaws that make them worse anyway. You can argue Toppin isn't BPA (though I think you'd lose that case after the top three), but if you're accepting he's BPA as a given an argument, not taking him doesn't make sense.

And in case someone's going to go this route: BPA is not about high floors. Potential is part of the BPA evaluation. So I'm not saying you have to take the guy who's the current best player over everyone else. I'm saying you unless you think the guy has injuries or other off-court stuff, you take the guy you think will be the best player in the draft every time.

Shit, look at how many people are salivating over Michael Porter Jr, and the dude had and continues to have both medical and behavioral red flags. Porter's also a terrible defender and was even worse on that end in college than Toppin is. Also, also, Toppin is only four months older than Porter. You don't want to take on Wiggins or trade a bunch of picks to get Toppin? Fine. You just think some other guy is a better BPA candidate or are really shook by how much the position busts? Fine. But it's clear Toppin has a very good resume and profile that should make him a competitive early lottery candidate, and if he fell to the Spurs, there is way more reason to be excited/hopeful than there is to be frightened.

[mo7888]

The only short-comings than can negate that are off-the-court red flags. If you think a guy is talented but his health or behavior might prevent him from playing, then you pass. But if you're a team that lacks young talent, you don't pass on BPA with excuses about flaws. If a guy is still BPA even after accounting for flaws, you take him and hope you can coach him up or scheme around the flaws. You're almost by definition saying that everyone else has flaws that make them worse anyway. You can argue Toppin isn't BPA (though I think you'd lose that case after the top three), but if you're accepting he's BPA as a given an argument, not taking him doesn't make sense.

And in case someone's going to go this route: BPA is not about high floors. Potential is part of the BPA evaluation. So I'm not saying you have to take the guy who's the current best player over everyone else. I'm saying you unless you think the guy has injuries or other off-court stuff, you take the guy you think will be the best player in the draft every time.

Shit, look at how many people are salivating over Michael Porter Jr, and the dude had and continues to have both medical and behavioral red flags. Porter's also a terrible defender and was even worse on that end in college than Toppin is. Also, also, Toppin is only four months older than Porter. You don't want to take on Wiggins or trade a bunch of picks to get Toppin? Fine. You just think some other guy is a better BPA candidate or are really shook by how much the position busts? Fine. But it's clear Toppin has a very good resume and profile that should make him a competitive early lottery candidate, and if he fell to the Spurs, there is way more reason to be excited/hopeful than there is to be frightened.

I don't have him quite as high as you do but he's definitely top 8 (probably top 6) to me. It's an absolute no-brainer to take him at 11 if he's on the board.

[R. DeMurre]

The only short-comings than can negate that are off-the-court red flags. If you think a guy is talented but his health or behavior might prevent him from playing, then you pass. But if you're a team that lacks young talent, you don't pass on BPA with excuses about flaws. If a guy is still BPA even after accounting for flaws, you take him and hope you can coach him up or scheme around the flaws. You're almost by definition saying that everyone else has flaws that make them worse anyway. You can argue Toppin isn't BPA (though I think you'd lose that case after the top three), but if you're accepting he's BPA as a given an argument, not taking him doesn't make sense.

And in case someone's going to go this route: BPA is not about high floors. Potential is part of the BPA evaluation. So I'm not saying you have to take the guy who's the current best player over everyone else. I'm saying you unless you think the guy has injuries or other off-court stuff, you take the guy you think will be the best player in the draft every time.

Shit, look at how many people are salivating over Michael Porter Jr, and the dude had and continues to have both medical and behavioral red flags. Porter's also a terrible defender and was even worse on that end in college than Toppin is. Also, also, Toppin is only four months older than Porter. You don't want to take on Wiggins or trade a bunch of picks to get Toppin? Fine. You just think some other guy is a better BPA candidate or are really shook by how much the position busts? Fine. But it's clear Toppin has a very good resume and profile that should make him a competitive early lottery candidate, and if he fell to the Spurs, there is way more reason to be excited/hopeful than there is to be frightened.

:lol I was just entertained by Timvp's dramatic language. I'm no fan of all offense no defense bigs, but suicidal still stands out as a pretty passionate mock draft description.

[The Truth #6]

The only short-comings than can negate that are off-the-court red flags. If you think a guy is talented but his health or behavior might prevent him from playing, then you pass. But if you're a team that lacks young talent, you don't pass on BPA with excuses about flaws. If a guy is still BPA even after accounting for flaws, you take him and hope you can coach him up or scheme around the flaws. You're almost by definition saying that everyone else has flaws that make them worse anyway. You can argue Toppin isn't BPA (though I think you'd lose that case after the top three), but if you're accepting he's BPA as a given an argument, not taking him doesn't make sense.

And in case someone's going to go this route: BPA is not about high floors. Potential is part of the BPA evaluation. So I'm not saying you have to take the guy who's the current best player over everyone else. I'm saying you unless you think the guy has injuries or other off-court stuff, you take the guy you think will be the best player in the draft every time.

Shit, look at how many people are salivating over Michael Porter Jr, and the dude had and continues to have both medical and behavioral red flags. Porter's also a terrible defender and was even worse on that end in college than Toppin is. Also, also, Toppin is only four months older than Porter. You don't want to take on Wiggins or trade a bunch of picks to get Toppin? Fine. You just think some other guy is a better BPA candidate or are really shook by how much the position busts? Fine. But it's clear Toppin has a very good resume and profile that should make him a competitive early lottery candidate, and if he fell to the Spurs, there is way more reason to be excited/hopeful than there is to be frightened.

You made me curious about how people see their list of bpa. I think Toppin, as others said, is a no brainer at 11. But would you take him over Deni? Killian? Okoru?

[ZeusWillJudge]

Toppin at 11 is a no brainer. Even if he’s a bust.


:tu Even if he turns out to be a bust. You only have the knowledge available at draft time, and unless the scouts have some knowledge that the rest of us don't, he would def be a no-brainer at 11.



I mean, Siakam isn't a legit star? RPM's not a good stat for determining who the stars are. Some do well; others don't. Calling the who do "legit" doesn't change that.

You claimed before that you weren't making the Robert Covington argument, but you're really getting into Covington territory.

RPM is a terrible predictive tool. It has its limits when comparing a single player on different teams over time. (Just because of team/coaching dynamics.) But comparing different players on different teams, and even in different seasons? It's one tool in an entire tool box. People love to point at all the times it's dead-on, and they ignore the times it's totally silly. Like all other metrics, you really have to understand what it does and doesn't say to get any real value out of it.

[ZeusWillJudge]

You made me curious about how people see their list of bpa. I think Toppin, as others said, is a no brainer at 11. But would you take him over Deni? Killian? Okoru?


The single biggest drawback to drafting Toppin would be the fact that he would be playing under Pop. People seem to ignore the fact that talent/skill set is only one part of the picture. How a player is used is always a big factor. We've all seen players leave one team and flourish with another. Maybe the player got a little better in a single offseason - but mostly it's about fit in the roster and the coaches system. Put Toppin on a D'Antoni team and he would probably be a ROY candidate - at least as long as Hardon let him touch the ball once in a while.

People forget that Wiggins puts up a shitload of points. Put Toppin and Wiggins together on a D'Antoni team and they would put up just a double shitload of points... at least up till playoff time.

[R. DeMurre]

:wakeup

[The Truth #6]

The single biggest drawback to drafting Toppin would be the fact that he would be playing under Pop. People seem to ignore the fact that talent/skill set is only one part of the picture. How a player is used is always a big factor. We've all seen players leave one team and flourish with another. Maybe the player got a little better in a single offseason - but mostly it's about fit in the roster and the coaches system. Put Toppin on a D'Antoni team and he would probably be a ROY candidate - at least as long as Hardon let him touch the ball once in a while.

People forget that Wiggins puts up a shitload of points. Put Toppin and Wiggins together on a D'Antoni team and they would put up just a double shitload of points... at least up till playoff time.

Interesting points. Any other players you think are a bad fit? Personally, I’m curious about Jaden McDaniels in the second round if he’s still available, but the red flags around his personality seem like an obvious bad fit with Pop.

Now, if Pop is leaving in a year and Becky takes over, that could be good (re:Toppin) in the long term.

[TD 21]

That's more like it. I'm becoming more and more convinced that the Spurs are not looking to trade up into the uncertain top-pick territory, but the more certain mid-top-lottery (is that a thing? I'm making it a thing) spots. I don't like Toppin AT ALL, so I'd much rather they go with Deni, but tbh any prospect at that stage that the Spurs deem good enough to trade up for would be good enough to me. Add to that the addition-by-substraction that getting rid of DeRozan would signify, and we're golden. But tbh, I'd hope the Spurs try to mangle some deal where they add someone like Patty or Dejounte to the deal instead of #11, just because this draft seems perfect to have multiple FRPs on. But I'd be fine with losing 11 if that's what it takes.

Can't wait for draft night, tbh. I've never been more involved with a draft before. I can see the Spurs trading up, staying put, or even trading down, all with good options given each scenario... Must be stressful to work in the FO.

Yeah, it could obviously be applicable to Avdija too (depending on which of Toppin/him the Cavaliers pass on at 5), who'd probably be the Spurs' preference. It's even possible that the Hawks would go with Haliburton at 6 and one of them would fall to the Pistons at 7, in which case the same DeRozan and 11 offer would apply.

This is where the Spurs need to hope DeRozan's representation hasn't nailed down either the Hawks/Pistons as a destination (both of whom have the cap space to sign him outright) though and opts in, thereby forcing either's hand in a trade if they're interested enough.

[PhantomDashCam]

Make of this what you will. Hadn't heard about this though...

https://cavaliersnation.com/2020/11/10/report-cavs-narrowed-down-who-no-5-2-players/


More people think Toppin is a pretty legit top-5 talent due to his offensive skill, but I’ve been told to keep an eye on his medicals from the combine. (Teams are still parsing through this info.)”

[Thomas82]

The single biggest drawback to drafting Toppin would be the fact that he would be playing under Pop. People seem to ignore the fact that talent/skill set is only one part of the picture. How a player is used is always a big factor. We've all seen players leave one team and flourish with another. Maybe the player got a little better in a single offseason - but mostly it's about fit in the roster and the coaches system. Put Toppin on a D'Antoni team and he would probably be a ROY candidate - at least as long as Hardon let him touch the ball once in a while.

People forget that Wiggins puts up a shitload of points. Put Toppin and Wiggins together on a D'Antoni team and they would put up just a double shitload of points... at least up till playoff time.


All good points!!

[R. DeMurre]

:lol Mocking RPM, then salivating over a Wiggins/Toppin pairing. That's rich. Looks like your tool box is a tad rusty.

[Dejounte]

https://twitter.com/ChaseHughesNBCS/status/1326581838161342467?s=19

No mention of the Spurs.

[look_at_g_shred]

Good!

[objective]

Huh? Clarke was rumored to go in the top 10. To think it would have been a shock for him to go in the mid teens is weird. And Toppin is nothing like Clarke offensively. Such a lazy comparison. And mind you I was huge on Clarke.

I was big on Clarke also, but for two solid months before the draft just about everyone in the Clarke draft thread thought he could be there for SA at 19.

I don't mind predicting that Clarke will be the better NBA player when you factor in defense. Maybe Toppin scores 15 vs Clarke's 12, but Clarke will better.

[Chinook]

I was big on Clarke also, but for two solid months before the draft just about everyone in the Clarke draft thread thought he could be there for SA at 19.

Okay, this isn't true. I literally googled "2019 nba final mock draft" and most of the ones I've seen had Clarke at 11. One had him at 17, one 24 and a third 27, but of the 10 I looked at, the other seven had him at 11. Maybe if I looked at more, I'd see that a majority of all mocks had him in the 20s, but to suggest that "everyone" thought he'd be there is really wrong. On ST, we almost all thought he'd be gone by 19. I think there was a short window at the beginning of the combine where Clarke had measured but not tested that had him at his low-point stock. Then he tested and people saw he was an uber athlete, and he rose back up.


I don't mind predicting that Clarke will be the better NBA player when you factor in defense. Maybe Toppin scores 15 vs Clarke's 12, but Clarke will better.

Clarke was very arguably the most impactful rookie last year. Suggesting "Clarke will be better than Toppin" makes it seem like Brandon is some average bar that Obi will struggle to reach. In reality, Clarke might be better than any player in this whole class. I've made my feelings on not drafting him clear at this point.