2020 Senate Predictions?

[Millennial_Messiah]

I'm sticking with my D+2 prediction. Democrats gain in Arizona, Colorado and Maine (Susan Collins might as well be a D though). Republicans gain in Alabama.

Republicans hold serve in North Carolina and Iowa by proxy of Trump holding these states. Michigan "D" incumbent race will be closer than we all think right now, since they have a strong Black conservative candidate there, but I think Trump narrowly loses that state (and even if he wins narrowly, those upper north states vote less by proxy than the rest of the USA).

That leaves the GOP with the narrowest of margins, 51-49, or theoretically 52-49 if Pence is the VP and 51-50 if Harris is the new VP.

[Bogie]

I'm sticking with my D+2 prediction. Democrats gain in Arizona, Colorado and Maine (Susan Collins might as well be a D though). Republicans gain in Alabama.

Republicans hold serve in North Carolina and Iowa by proxy of Trump holding these states. Michigan "D" incumbent race will be closer than we all think right now, since they have a strong Black conservative candidate there, but I think Trump narrowly loses that state (and even if he wins narrowly, those upper north states vote less by proxy than the rest of the USA).

That leaves the GOP with the narrowest of margins, 51-49, or theoretically 52-49 if Pence is the VP and 51-50 if Harris is the new VP.

imagine how dumb you must be to say Collins might as well be a dem.

why do you guys always think that being dumber than ducks, is a life goal?

[DMC]

imagine how dumb you must be to say Collins might as well be a dem.

why do you guys always think that being dumber than ducks, is a life goal?

Same reason you think, a comma, comes after a random word in a, sentence.

[Bogie]

Same reason you think, a comma, comes after a random word in a, sentence.

i suppose when you’re an insecure and intellectually bankrupt fraud, like yourself, typo smack is all you really have to ease the pain of knowing your life is so bad you have to make up an image to project to a site full of people you will never meet.

Serious question, why wouldn’t you actually put the effort into trying to impress the people you do have in your life? It seems self defeating to channel all of your energy trying to curry favor with the other soulless and valueless sots that are doing the exact same thing you are.

who knows, maybe if you add up all of the characteristics of 8 of you, it might create one cellular organism that’s not a complete piece of shit

[Will Hunting]

imagine how dumb you must be to say Collins might as well be a dem.

why do you guys always think that being dumber than ducks, is a life goal?
Same retarded mindset of when they say Roberts is a liberal because he didn’t manufacture a dishonest reason to say Obamacare was unconstitutional. In the mind of retards like Millennial Messiah any conservative who lets integrity get in the way of partisanship is a liberal.

[Will Hunting]

That leaves the GOP with the narrowest of margins, 51-49, or theoretically 52-49 if Pence is the VP and 51-50 if Harris is the new VP.
No dumbass, that’s not how the constitution works. The VP only casts a vote in a tie, it doesn’t cast a vote if there’s already a 51-49 vote. There’s no such thing as a 52-49 or 51-50 majority.

[Bogie]

No dumbass, that’s not how the constitution works. The VP only casts a vote in a tie, it doesn’t cast a vote if there’s already a 51-49 vote. There’s no such thing as a 52-49 or 51-50 majority.


i love it when they actually own themselves. He came here to post some talking point he found deep in the bowels of the rw echo chamber.

then he went through all the trouble of typing that out, only to show that like most trumpers, he doesn’t actually understand the procedural rules of senate voting.

out dumbing ducks. It’s not just a as game, it’s a quest for these folks. It’s like they want to show they can be the brown shirtiest of the brown shirts.

[RandomGuy]

Really too close to call, IMO.

Agree that R's lose more, but just how much more... will simply depend on how effective their voter suppression campaign is.

[Will Hunting]

IMO the GOP has pretty much given up on Colorado and Arizona at this point. Colorado is solid blue and MAGA McSally is down by 10+ points. That stupid bitch is responsible for flipping 2 different seats to the Dems :lol

McConnell knows the difference between the Dems having a 50-51 vote majority vs. a 53-54 vote majority will be really important, so I think the GOP will do more to prevent a blue waive and protect seats in states like Montana, Georgia, South Carolina and Kansas over the next 2 months even if it means diverting resources away from Maine or North Carolina. The really important seat for the Dems is Iowa imo. If Iowa is in play it means a lot of other seats might be, but if they can't beat an unpopular senator in Iowa it means they probably have no chance in other races like Montana or Georgia.

IMO the Dems lose Alabama and win Colorado, Arizona, Maine, North Carolina + 1 other seat for a 51 vote majority. Even though it's a much smaller majority than they had after 2008 it won't be as reliant on DINOs in red states as that majority was, 42 of the senators will be in the 21 most liberal states, 2 more will be in lean blue states that only need to worry about running in midterm elections, 2 more will be in a state quickly turning blue (AZ), and 1 will be in in a red state with voters who worship him (Brown).

[Reck]

You lose all credibility when you claim Susan Collins is a democrat.

Stupid, didn't read the rest.

[Ef-man]

i suppose when you’re an insecure and intellectually bankrupt fraud, like yourself, typo smack is all you really have to ease the pain of knowing your life is so bad you have to make up an image to project to a site full of people you will never meet.

Serious question, why wouldn’t you actually put the effort into trying to impress the people you do have in your life? It seems self defeating to channel all of your energy trying to curry favor with the other soulless and valueless sots that are doing the exact same thing you are.

who knows, maybe if you add up all of the characteristics of 8 of you, it might create one cellular organism that’s not a complete piece of shit

Same idiot (DMC) that says face masks are a placebo.

[ChumpDumper]

Prophetic choice of words at the ends there, ad writers....
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[DMX7]

Susan Collins is GOP through and through.

[TimDunkem]

No dumbass, that’s not how the constitution works. The VP only casts a vote in a tie, it doesn’t cast a vote if there’s already a 51-49 vote. There’s no such thing as a 52-49 or 51-50 majority.
Self-owns are the best aren't they? :lmao

[Millennial_Messiah]

IMO the GOP has pretty much given up on Colorado and Arizona at this point. Colorado is solid blue and MAGA McSally is down by 10+ points. That stupid bitch is responsible for flipping 2 different seats to the Dems :lol

McConnell knows the difference between the Dems having a 50-51 vote majority vs. a 53-54 vote majority will be really important, so I think the GOP will do more to prevent a blue waive and protect seats in states like Montana, Georgia, South Carolina and Kansas over the next 2 months even if it means diverting resources away from Maine or North Carolina. The really important seat for the Dems is Iowa imo. If Iowa is in play it means a lot of other seats might be, but if they can't beat an unpopular senator in Iowa it means they probably have no chance in other races like Montana or Georgia.

IMO the Dems lose Alabama and win Colorado, Arizona, Maine, North Carolina + 1 other seat for a 51 vote majority. Even though it's a much smaller majority than they had after 2008 it won't be as reliant on DINOs in red states as that majority was, 42 of the senators will be in the 21 most liberal states, 2 more will be in lean blue states that only need to worry about running in midterm elections, 2 more will be in a state quickly turning blue (AZ), and 1 will be in in a red state with voters who worship him (Brown).
I don't think Thom Tillis loses in NC. If he does, Trump loses NC and the "blue wave" is real, 2008 style.

[Reck]

I don't think Thom Tillis loses in NC. If he does, Trump loses NC and the "blue wave" is real, 2008 style.

So the polls are going to be wrong to the tune of....4 or so points on average?

That's a massive shift the other way.

[Will Hunting]

I don't think Thom Tillis loses in NC. If he does, Trump loses NC and the "blue wave" is real, 2008 style.
Thillis is polling behind Trump by several percentage points (I'm not sure why but he is). Poll today has Biden +2 and Cunningham +7. Fox News poll earlier this month had Biden +4 and Cunningham +6 (this is in each case the same group of voters).

The presidential race in NC is within the margin of error, the senate race is slightly outside it.

[Will Hunting]

.

[Trainwreck2100]

Same retarded mindset of when they say Roberts is a liberal because he didn’t manufacture a dishonest reason to say Obamacare was unconstitutional. In the mind of retards like Millennial Messiah any conservative who lets integrity get in the way of partisanship is a liberal.
Which is even more baffling because collins checked her integrity at the door months ago. Romney fucking boomed her

Prophetic choice of words at the ends there, ad writers....
1303740759536021504

IMO they should have mentioned a number for Georgia loss of life or job number

[Will Hunting]

Also keep in mind, in 2008 the Democrats were net +7 senate seats while they held onto seats in deep red states (South Dakota, Arkansas). THAT's a blue waive, I wouldn't classify this election as a blue waive unless we saw them flip senate seats in states like Iowa or Georgia.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Thillis is polling behind Trump by several percentage points (I'm not sure why but he is). Poll today has Biden +2 and Cunningham +7. Fox News poll earlier this month had Biden +4 and Cunningham +6 (this is in each case the same group of voters).

The presidential race in NC is within the margin of error, the senate race is slightly outside it.
Yeah that is very much a proxy state/part of the USA and the voters will not split results. Either Tillis AND Trump win -or- Biden AND Cunningham win, I'll bet you 1 year of SpursTalk posting on that.

The most likely case is still Trump+Tillis, it's a radically divided state and the incumbent is GOP and it's a state where voters will be voting straight red or straight blue ticket, not like a more hippy/independent state like in the North or Northwest where people actually take their time to vote for specific candidates.

[DMC]

i suppose when you’re an insecure and intellectually bankrupt fraud, like yourself, typo smack is all you really have to ease the pain of knowing your life is so bad you have to make up an image to project to a site full of people you will never meet.

Serious question, why wouldn’t you actually put the effort into trying to impress the people you do have in your life? It seems self defeating to channel all of your energy trying to curry favor with the other soulless and valueless sots that are doing the exact same thing you are.

who knows, maybe if you add up all of the characteristics of 8 of you, it might create one cellular organism that’s not a complete piece of shit

tl;dr

[Will Hunting]

Yeah that is very much a proxy state/part of the USA and the voters will not split results. Either Tillis AND Trump win -or- Biden AND Cunningham win, I'll bet you 1 year of SpursTalk posting on that.

The most likely case is still Trump+Tillis, it's a radically divided state and the incumbent is GOP and it's a state where voters will be voting straight red or straight blue ticket, not like a more hippy/independent state like in the North or Northwest where people actually take their time to vote for specific candidates.
That wouldn't be a fair bet since there isn't a 50/50 chance the ticket is split. I never said that the most likely outcome was a Biden/Cunningham win but as usual you're bouncing all over the place with strawman arguments like a retarded child with mad cow disease.

Your broad hypothesis about it being a proxy state isn't backed up by the numbers, not to mention the very recent example of what you're saying doesn't happen in NC happening in NC. In 2016 Trump won NC while Roy Cooper (D) unseated a Republican governor in the same election, which clearly meant there were voters who voted for Trump and Roy Cooper on the same ticket. Literally in the last election there was a split in two important statewide races :lol

[Millennial_Messiah]

That wouldn't be a fair bet since there isn't a 50/50 chance the ticket is split. I never said that the most likely outcome was a Biden/Cunningham win but as usual you're bouncing all over the place with strawman arguments like a retarded child with mad cow disease.

Your broad hypothesis about it being a proxy state isn't backed up by the numbers, not to mention the very recent example of what you're saying doesn't happen in NC happening in NC. In 2016 Trump won NC while Roy Cooper (D) unseated a Republican governor in the same election, which clearly meant there were voters who voted for Trump and Roy Cooper on the same ticket. Literally in the last election there was a split in two important statewide races :lol

Gubernatorial is mostly academic out of state. Senators actually govern and approve real laws that impact the whole country.

Likelihood:

Trump+Tillis - 50%
Biden+Cunningham - 40%
Trump+Cunningham - 8%
Biden+Tillis - 2%

just a rough guesstimate

[Will Hunting]

Gubernatorial is mostly academic out of state. Senators actually govern and approve real laws that impact the whole country.

Likelihood:

Trump+Tillis - 50%
Biden+Cunningham - 40%
Trump+Cunningham - 8%
Biden+Tillis - 2%

just a rough guesstimate
Predictable goalpost move. You just said its a state where voters vote straight red ticket or straight blue ticket. Now you're saying they only do that for president + senate races by not Gubernatorial elections? You're only making that distinction now because I pointed out how stupid your broad description of how NC voters vote was. All of the races were on the same ballot. There were clearly people who voted for Trump and Roy Cooper for both of them to win, so the notion that voters in North Carolina don't think about who they're voting for and just vote straight ballot is retarded.

More hilarious, after making the definitive statement that "they won't split results", you're now hedging by saying split results have a 10% chance of happening. That way you won't be wrong either way.

[RandomGuy]

(Susan Collins might as well be a D though).

Missed that in the first read through. That is the dumbest shit you have said, in a long line of dumb shit.

That statement says:

"I don't understand her voting record at all" and "I am a brainwashed twat". at the same time. Congrats. a twofer.

[RandomGuy]

Same retarded mindset of when they say Roberts is a liberal because he didn’t manufacture a dishonest reason to say Obamacare was unconstitutional. In the mind of retards like Millennial Messiah any conservative who lets integrity get in the way of partisanship is a liberal.

X1000

Anyone who has a shred of integrity or who is not 100% rabidly fascist is a screaming liberal.

That dovetails into their whiney claims of persecution and media bias. They dont' want "unbiased" media, they want "only media that shares my bias"

[Isitjustme?]

Still with this fucking piece of shit guy?? :lol

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[Reck]

Still with this fucking piece of shit guy?? :lol

1303737180527955969

Isn't this guy a libertarian these days? Maybe Susan Collins is thinking of running as some kind of third party candidate while holding that R around.

[TheGreatYacht]

I'm sticking with my D+2 prediction. Democrats gain in Arizona, Colorado and Maine (Susan Collins might as well be a D though). Republicans gain in Alabama.

Republicans hold serve in North Carolina and Iowa by proxy of Trump holding these states. Michigan "D" incumbent race will be closer than we all think right now, since they have a strong Black conservative candidate there, but I think Trump narrowly loses that state (and even if he wins narrowly, those upper north states vote less by proxy than the rest of the USA).

That leaves the GOP with the narrowest of margins, 51-49, or theoretically 52-49 if Pence is the VP and 51-50 if Harris is the new VP.

Doesn't matter. All of them clowns are going along w the Covid hoax. Regardless of who is in power, they are determined to usher in the NWO.

[Will Hunting]

Still with this fucking piece of shit guy?? :lol

1303737180527955969
This guy’s endorsements are more of an indictment these days. He turned on the Democrats in 08 and hasn’t been relevant since then.

Hopefully this makes it so his fuckwad son gets less votes in the Georgia special election so the other Democrat can make it to the runoff election.

[RandomGuy]

Still with this fucking piece of shit guy?? :lol

1303737180527955969

I think this is going to get the DNC to target Lieberman. He has caucused with the Democrats in the past, but I think his time is up.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Predictable goalpost move. You just said its a state where voters vote straight red ticket or straight blue ticket. Now you're saying they only do that for president + senate races by not Gubernatorial elections? You're only making that distinction now because I pointed out how stupid your broad description of how NC voters vote was. All of the races were on the same ballot. There were clearly people who voted for Trump and Roy Cooper for both of them to win, so the notion that voters in North Carolina don't think about who they're voting for and just vote straight ballot is retarded.

More hilarious, after making the definitive statement that "they won't split results", you're now hedging by saying split results have a 10% chance of happening. That way you won't be wrong either way.

It's still a 90% chance it won't be a split. I'm willing to go Elimination Level Event with you on that one if you're down.

Look at how Trump in 2016 bailed out senators at the last minute in the same key states who were losing in polls... Ron Johnson, Pat Toomey, (Rubio was a toss-up), even the guy in Indiana. Whereas Hillary's low-solace comeback victory in New Hampshire allowed the Democrats to get rid of Kelly Ayotte.

[Millennial_Messiah]

I think this is going to get the DNC to target Lieberman. He has caucused with the Democrats in the past, but I think his time is up.

He was Gore's VP pick / right hand man seemingly a few days ago :lol

[Will Hunting]

I think this is going to get the DNC to target Lieberman. He has caucused with the Democrats in the past, but I think his time is up.
:lol “target him”? He hasnt been politically relevant in over a decade.

[Millennial_Messiah]

BAM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! #LeBronGFYSinMiami

https://i.imgur.com/2t6yq7Z.jpg

[RandomGuy]

BAM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! #LeBronGFYSinMiami

https://i.imgur.com/2t6yq7Z.jpg

Relevance?

Use your words.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Relevance?

Use your words.

2016 Proxying in general election years. Killer example to end all examples.

For 2020. It's Trump + Toomey in NC, or Biden + Cunningham. No other real solution.

Maine is a bit unique and so it will likely go to Collins' opponent for the senate, and Trump will win 1 of the 4 EC votes like last time.

Arizona hasn't voted for a Democratic non-incumbent president since FDR and they've only voted for a Dem president overall once in the past 72 years (1996 for Clinton's second term). Trump carried it in 2016 even after the McCain comments. But, Kelly crushing McSally (why the fuck did the GOP appoint her to McCain's hollowed seat after she lost to a commie for Flake's old seat?! Dumbasses) will certainly lead to a Biden victory in AZ, IMO.