~*~* Hurricane Delta Thread *~*~

[Millennial_Messiah]

I know it only just tonight got declared "Tropical Depression 26" by the NHC, but it's looking like an inevitable major US hit... (they always tend to undershoot the intensity forecast to not alarm people, just like with Laura...) currently looking like a direct NOLA hit/major US disaster in the coming days.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT26/refresh/AL262020_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/023600_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

Looks like Delta is headed straight for the .......delta.


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/050234.shtml

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 17.0N 77.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 17.4N 78.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 18.3N 79.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 20.0N 81.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 22.2N 84.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 07/1200Z 24.1N 87.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 25.4N 88.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 27.2N 90.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 10/0000Z 30.0N 89.9W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[Trainwreck2100]

how are we on Delta if this is the 26th, there's 26 letters in the alphabet

[ElNono]

OP is a flaglot

[Millennial_Messiah]

how are we on Delta if this is the 26th, there's 26 letters in the alphabet

The NHC doesn't use "Q", "U", "X", "Y", "Z" human names because they're scarce and hard to find/replace if necessary. So there are 21 names and the remainings are Greek Alphabet names beginning with Alpha. This is NOT the first time we have used Greek names for the Atlantic hurricane season.

There have now been 26 tropical depressions, all except one (TD 10) becoming a named tropical storm.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Officially TS Delta this morning.

[Darth_Pelican]

It's way too early to know where this storm is going to go or the intensity. October storms usually don't intensify into major hurricanes because of the cooler weather and Gulf temperature. Will keep an eye on it. I don't mind being on the direct projected path this early on, because the path almost always changes.

[Millennial_Messiah]

It's way too early to know where this storm is going to go or the intensity. October storms usually don't intensify into major hurricanes because of the cooler weather and Gulf temperature. Will keep an eye on it. I don't mind being on the direct projected path this early on, because the path almost always changes.
Michael 2018, mid October. Intensified into a high-end Cat 4 in the North Gulf in mid October, with winds 155 mph (they actually upgraded it to 160 mph cat 5 the next spring, which I thought was silly, but whatever).

With climate change you have to look into recent examples vs. long-term historical examples from the 1900s, say.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Darth_Pelican NOTE: Michael in October 2018, at the time of its first getting named, was only expected to obtain even less than Delta's forecast intensity right now:

Tropical Storm Michael Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
400 PM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018

Deep convection has continued to develop over the eastern
semicircle of the cyclone, and data from the reconnaissance
aircraft indicate that the center has re-formed farther east,
closer to the convection. The Air Force aircraft has measured peak
925-mb flight-level winds of 56 kt, and believable SFMR winds of
40-45 kt. Based on these data, the initial wind speed has been
increased to 45 kt.

Due to the center reformation, the initial motion estimate is a
highly uncertain 020/3 kt. The overall forecast reasoning has not
changed much since the previous advisory. Although there could be
some additional eastward re-formation of the center, the tropical
storm is forecast to begin moving northward between a ridge over the
western Atlantic and a deep-layer trough over the west-central
United States. A general northward motion at around 10 kt is then
expected to continue during the next 2 to 3 days. After that time,
Michael should turn northeastward ahead of an approaching trough.
The track guidance remains in overall agreement on this scenario,
however, significant along-track (forward speed and timing)
differences remain. The HWRF brings Michael onshore the northern
Gulf coast within 72 hours, while the ECMWF is much slower and has
Michael still offshore at day 4. The new NHC track has been shifted
eastward primarily in the short term due to the more eastward
initial position. The latter portion of the track forecast is again
close to the consensus aids due to the large along- and cross-track
guidance spread.

Michael has strengthened today despite moderate westerly shear. The
shear is forecast to gradually decrease over the next couple of days
while the system moves over warm waters. This should allow for
steady strengthening and most of the intensity models bring Michael
to hurricane strength within the next couple of days. It should
also be noted that the global models also significantly deepen the
storm over the next 72 hours to pressures below 970 mb. The new NHC
intensity forecast calls for Michael to become a hurricane in about
36 hours when the storm reaches the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
Additional strengthening is indicated through 72 hours when the
storm is forecast to be near the northern Gulf coast, and the NHC
forecast is near the higher SHIPS and HWRF models.

Key Messages:

1. Michael is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding
over portions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula
of Mexico during the next couple of days.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected tonight over portions of
western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula, where tropical
storm warnings are in effect.

3. Michael is forecast to be a hurricane when it reaches the
northeastern Gulf Coast by mid-week, and the risk of dangerous storm
surge, rainfall, and wind impacts continues to increase. In
addition, Michael is expected to affect portions of the Florida Gulf
Coast that are especially vulnerable to storm surge, regardless of
the storm's exact track or intensity. Residents in these areas
should monitor the progress of this system and follow any advice
given by local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 19.2N 85.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 20.1N 85.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 21.5N 85.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 23.2N 86.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 25.0N 86.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 29.2N 85.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 33.7N 80.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
120H 12/1800Z 39.0N 68.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

[Millennial_Messiah]

NHC always slow plays major GOM storms.

[Play Boban]

Another storm created to advance the MSM fake global warming agenda imho

[phxspurfan]

dud like this whole season

[Millennial_Messiah]

dud like this whole season
Ummmmmmm......



Tropical Storm Delta https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/xml.gif (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nhc_at1.xml)
Satellite (https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/floater.php?stormid=AL262020) | Buoys (https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?storm=at1) | Grids (http://digital.weather.gov/?layers=00BFTFTTTTT&region=7&element=9&mxmz=false&barbs=true&zoom=5&lat=16.1&lon=-79.2) | Storm Archive (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2020/DELTA.shtml?)




...DELTA QUICKLY STRENGTHENING OVER THE CARIBBEAN... ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE TO THE STORM...






https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

[Millennial_Messiah]

2:00 PM EDT Mon Oct 5
Location: 16.1°N 79.2°W
Moving: W at 7 mph
Min pressure: 998 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph

[pgardn]

Turn west, die down, and run through San Antonio.
My yard and the deer in the Leon Creek Trial system beg you.

[Robz4000]

Turn west, die down, and run through San Antonio.
My yard and the deer in the Leon Creek Trial system beg you.

Same

[RD2191]

Predicted to hit as a CAT 3, rapidly intensifying.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Predicted to hit as a CAT 3, rapidly intensifying.
Let's go!!! #NOLAhit2020 :toast

[Millennial_Messiah]

70 mph now, almost a Cat 1 :tu

remember when Wilma in '05 was only supposed to be a weak cat 1? And that was Late October...we saw how that one turned out :)

[Darth_Pelican]

Predicted to hit as a CAT 3, rapidly intensifying.

Predicted to become a cat 3 but to weaken to a cat 2 before landfall. Projected path shifted a little to the west because the storm has travelled due west most of the day. Lake Charles might start getting concerned that they get another one, but way too early to tell.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Predicted to become a cat 3 but to weaken to a cat 2 before landfall. Projected path shifted a little to the west because the storm has travelled due west most of the day. Lake Charles might start getting concerned that they get another one, but way too early to tell.

It could just as easily move back east. It could also strengthen to a cat 4-5 then weaken to a 3 before landfall or weaken little or not at all (water isn't really cold enough to weaken it unless it goes VERY slow). Lots of variables. Too early to tell.

[Millennial_Messiah]

& yes, I'm wishcasting for a major hit, since it seemed to help Obama in October '12 (yes, I know Sandy was a cat 1-2 at landfall, but similar concept)... major war or natural disaster on the eve of the election favors the incumbent.

[baseline bum]

& yes, I'm wishcasting for a major hit, since it seemed to help Obama in October '12 (yes, I know Sandy was a cat 1-2 at landfall, but similar concept)... major war or natural disaster on the eve of the election favors the incumbent.

God damn, 215,000 dead isn't enough for you?

[Millennial_Messiah]

God damn, 215,000 dead isn't enough for you?

If I became president... well that would be a week's worth in my book, i.e. of cleaning up the savage scum in human form, a.k.a. the fake humans... the young generation of hipsters and rioters would get administratively *taken care of* first... Under my regime fake humans would be replaced with empty space, just like what is in their heads.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Officially a hurricane as per 8pm advisory!! 75 mph Cat 1 and rising

[phxspurfan]

Officially a hurricane as per 8pm advisory!! 75 mph Cat 1 and rising

https://img.discogs.com/ApcThQfBPpIuzZNYzHMwnBHR8zo=/fit-in/300x300/filters:strip_icc():format(jpeg):mode_rgb():qualit y(40)/discogs-images/R-928861-1173901590.jpeg.jpg

[Millennial_Messiah]

80 MPH now. Still strengthening. Headed to bed now, clonazepam and my hydrocodone kicking in. Also, Atlanta appears to be getting blown out by the Fudge Packers, so I'm outta here

[Darth_Pelican]

https://i.postimg.cc/tTk882jn/delta.gif

Current model has it touching down in central LA coast but way too early to know.

[Darth_Pelican]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ejpq6FzWsAM3Wf1?format=jpg&name=large

[Millennial_Messiah]

Likely a Cat 3 Louisiana landfall.

Already 110 mph and still rapidly strengthening. The brush hit on the yuke peninsula could weaken it a little bit but that part is flat and not mountainous. Will likely be a Cat 4 or 5 hit with a small eye (current forecast is cat 4 but note NHC always errs on the conservative side) on the yuke and then into the GOM as a larger, greater wind field cat 3 with a larger eye and expansive hurricane windfield. Should strengthen back to a 4 or 5 and then weaken back to a 3 before Louisiana landfall (but it will be a very large hurricane by that point due to it being on its 3rd eyewall replacement cycle and baroclinic forces). Similar to Katrina.

It's all about where it hits at this point. It's going to be a major doozy for Baton Rouge and NOLA in any case.

[RD2191]

:corn:

[Millennial_Messiah]

:wow :wow :wow It's going to hit Cat 5 soon. Wilma redux, except a NOLA hit instead of Florida.

000
WTNT61 KNHC 061520
TCUAT1

Hurricane Delta Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
1120 AM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020

...RECENTLY RECEIVED DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT DELTA HAS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENED INTO A CATEGORY 4
HURRICANE...

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Delta is
continuing to rapidly strengthen. The maximum winds have
increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. This makes
Delta a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale.


SUMMARY OF 1120 AM EDT...1520 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 82.7W
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SW OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown

[Millennial_Messiah]

130 MPH Cat 4 already :wow

[Millennial_Messiah]

140 MPH Category 4 :wow :wow :wow :wow

[Darth_Pelican]

RIP Cancun

[Trainwreck2100]

God's really trying to kill Louisiana this year

[phxspurfan]

Cat 3 landfall but will hit nothing but open fields

[Millennial_Messiah]

Cat 3 landfall but will hit nothing but open fields

nah, I think it's going to hit Metairie area pretty much directly.

[Darth_Pelican]

The GFS model and the Euro model are both trending to the west. Euro has it all the way to the LA/TX border.

https://www.wwltv.com/article/weather/hurricane/tropica-storm-hurricane-delta-2020-update/289-d42066f3-5d55-4d32-8239-73ad9fb5d459

Models at the 5:38 mark

[Millennial_Messiah]

The GFS model and the Euro model are both trending to the west. Euro has it all the way to the LA/TX border.

https://www.wwltv.com/article/weather/hurricane/tropica-storm-hurricane-delta-2020-update/289-d42066f3-5d55-4d32-8239-73ad9fb5d459

Models at the 5:38 mark
HWRF trending back east.

[Darth_Pelican]

https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_26_ens.gif

Models starting to come in agreement. Central or Western LA landfall.

[Pelicans78]

nah, I think it's going to hit Metairie area pretty much directly.

I’m guessing it’s gonna hit somewhere from Lafayette to Baton Rouge. Don’t think NOLA will get it.

[Allan Rowe vs Wade]

If I became president... well that would be a week's worth in my book, i.e. of cleaning up the savage scum in human form, a.k.a. the fake humans... the young generation of hipsters and rioters would get administratively *taken care of* first... Under my regime fake humans would be replaced with empty space, just like what is in their heads.

uh .....

[Millennial_Messiah]

https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_26_ens.gif

Models starting to come in agreement. Central or Western LA landfall.

Yeah, you can pretty much discount the CLP5 which hits Metairie because the CLP5 is a "all else being equal, what would be the standard for October" model, whereas the XTRP model is literally the extrapolated path if it were to continue its exact current motion and speed and not deviate, which is obviously not going to happen.

[Darth_Pelican]

RIP Lake Charles. Twice in 1 year. Ouch.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT26/refresh/AL262020_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/145643_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

[SpursforSix]

RIP Lake Charles. Twice in 1 year. Ouch.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT26/refresh/AL262020_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/145643_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

Just talked with someone who lives down there and he says about 70% of the houses have temporary roofs on them and it's already 3rd world down there.

[Millennial_Messiah]

supposed to be a cat 3 at landfall with 120 mph winds.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Darth_Pelican you gotta make the game thread this week in the NFL forum :lol choose an interesting "Sponsored By"

map is posted, on https://506sports.com/nfl.php?yr=2020&wk=5

[Millennial_Messiah]

105 MPH having barely weakened and already emerged off the yuke coast and into the GOM is pretty scary.

[phxspurfan]

Yeah I feel for those in Lake Charles. They're about to get hit again

[baseline bum]

Yeah I feel for those in Lake Charles. They're about to get hit again

Bend over, I'll show you getting hit again.

[Robz4000]

Winds down to 85 mph now. I think it'll only hit as a Cat 2, maybe even just a strong Cat 1 imo. Water temps are below 80 in a lot of spots so it might just continue to weaken.

[phxspurfan]

Jared DUDley

[SpursforSix]

Jared DUDley

https://occ-0-1722-1723.1.nflxso.net/dnm/api/v6/X194eJsgWBDE2aQbaNdmCXGUP-Y/AAAABRRZlEo1ZoNcv4m6ngcOlfxbQqZOVVUa9tb60eQwf3rPzx RYCLqjaxhu3odoO1dA6smNtAtpD2pcClb9UZnYI_Bg6-am.jpg?r=9cf

[Pelicans78]

I'm here in Lake Charles. Been home and back at the office the last 3 weeks. 99% of the city has power back. I have internet at the office and cable/internet at home. Cleanup is still happening and there's a lot of debris still on the side of every street and a lot of homes including mine still have tarps over the roofs. Some schools have opened while most were scheduled to open next week. Things were starting to normalize over here before the threat of this hurricane.

It looks like it's going to be closer to Lafayette at this point with category two winds. We're about 50 miles west of where the eye wall is projected to pass thru so it looks like we might get category 1 stuff. I'm planning to stay, but will wait and see until Friday morning.

[Millennial_Messiah]

I'm here in Lake Charles. Been home and back at the office the last 3 weeks. 99% of the city has power back. I have internet at the office and cable/internet at home. Cleanup is still happening and there's a lot of debris still on the side of every street and a lot of homes including mine still have tarps over the roofs. Some schools have opened while most were scheduled to open next week. Things were starting to normalize over here before the threat of this hurricane.

It looks like it's going to be closer to Lafayette at this point with category two winds. We're about 50 miles west of where the eye wall is projected to pass thru so it looks like we might get category 1 stuff. I'm planning to stay, but will wait and see until Friday morning.

Could be anything from a strong TS to a cat 4 honestly.

[Millennial_Messiah]

back up to 100 MPH and rising.

[Darth_Pelican]

back up to 100 MPH and rising.

And nowhere near a Metairie/NOLA landfall like you predicted.

[Millennial_Messiah]

And nowhere near a Metairie/NOLA landfall like you predicted.

105 mph

[Millennial_Messiah]

yeah, Lake Charles was the hurricane magnet in 2020