[Statistical Analysis] 2020 Draft Prospects - BIGS ONLY

[Dejounte]

The purpose of this post is to focus on the shot tendencies of each player. Player tendencies are important because players hardly change their game unless there is a league wide shift in playing the game *cough* small ball *cough*. So from this data, we will be able to tell what the player will look like in the NBA.

Below I've organized data on the relevant bigs in the draft and compared them to each other.

Red = Least
Yellow = Middle ground
Green = Greatest

--- DISCLAIMER --- It is important to use the numbers in context. Some bigs didn't get as many shot attempts as others, so simply looking at the color coding can mislead people. Look at all categories first before making assumptions.

TABLE 1: SORTED BY 3 POINT ATTEMPTS

https://i.imgur.com/UXUH1Cg.png

Notes:
-Interesting, I thought Obi had attempted way more 3 points than other bigs in the draft. Appears it was only 1/5 of his shot attempts.
-Crazy how five more missed shots can make Jalen not look as elite with his 3's than Obi
-We may be able to use and interpret the bigs with highest AST% as bigs who can only shoot those 3's at a standstill.


TABLE 2: SORTED BY CLOSE 2 ATTEMPTS
https://i.imgur.com/A3wunOm.png

Notes:
-From "% of Dunks Attempted over Total Close 2's Attempted" we can kind of see which bigs can give the extra verticality (for lobs) on offense for easy 2's.
-I'm very surprised by the low number of dunks Precious had given his athleticism. Either I may have overestimated his hops or his guards were poor passers/ team offense gave no spacing
-Half of Obi's 2 point attempts were dunks. Unreal. It explains the high 2 pt FG%.
-Jalen Smith had fewer shot attempts than his peers, but it's interesting that half of his total shot attempts were close 2's, which is less than most of the bigs. He's a true stretch big. Same can be said for Reggie Perry and Paul Reed (whoa).



TABLE 3: SORTED BY FAR 2 POINT ATTEMPTS
https://i.imgur.com/E3bMpCz.png

Notes:
-Seems all bigs who attempted more far 2's were somewhat efficient with exception to Reggie Perry
-Haven't watched Reggie Perry much due to character concerns but seems like he can ISO pretty well judging from these numbers.

In a little while, I'll do the same thing for wings and guards.

[BackHome]

Damn that is some great data really surprised with Precious and noticed Killian can not dunk so you know Pop going to draft him.

But serious nice work going to take my time and digest all the numbers :wakeup

[Dejounte]

I failed to include FTA Rate in the original post.

I included it below with the "Close 2's" data.

Keep in mind, the FTA rate COULD reflect some free throws attained from 3 point attempts.

FTA rate is what I look for in most prospects. I believe it is a major indicator of if the player is tough (on offense) or if they aren't. If their FTA rate is low, it tells me they avoid physical contact. I do not want any more soft players. We lost a lot of games because when our shooters shots don't go in, no one aside from Keldon knew how to be physical, draw fouls, and gain rhythm from free throws.


https://i.imgur.com/lHGXJhE.png

Notes:
-Big red flag for Obi having a poor FTA Rate.... soft?
-Onyeka having an average FTA Rate is somewhat concerning since he doesn't really shoot 3's... but then again, he does have fewer shot attempts than most.

[pad300]

I noticed something odd in your 3ed table. Okongwu shot 39/94 on "Far 2's", which isn't the 72.6% you have for far 2's %. So I think you need to double check your tables.

[Dejounte]

I noticed something odd in your 3ed table. Okongwu shot 39/94 on "Far 2's", which isn't the 72.6% you have for far 2's %. So I think you need to double check your tables.

Good catch! Not sure how that happened. I fixed it in the original post by replacing the table.

[Kurik]

Pretty much shows how great it would be if we could get either Paul Reed or Reggie Perry with the second round pick.

[Dejounte]

Pretty much shows how great it would be if we could get either Paul Reed or Reggie Perry with the second round pick.

The disgustingly bad FTA rate for Paul Reed is concerning...

[Kurik]

The disgustingly bad FTA rate for Paul Reed is concerning...

I get it but seeing the effort he puts in on the boards and defense alleviates some of that for me. Especially for a second round pick, could do a lot worse,

[D-Robinson 50 fan]

Great job doing this!!

You've been on top of the NBA draft stuff and deserve a ton of credit for the work you're putting in

[Russ]

I know Wiseman only played 3 games (so statistics are hard to factor), but dang he's gotta be in here somehow . . .

[DAF86]

Marfan DemiGod doesn't count as a big?

[DAF86]

Why only offensive metrics Dejounte ?

I though better of you

Didn't you have him on ignore? :lol

[Dejounte]

Why only offensive metrics Dejounte ?

I though better of you

Maybe defensive metrics will come at a later date.

[Dejounte]

Marfan DemiGod doesn't count as a big?

The international data is harder to pull. Same reason LaMelo or Killian won't be in my thread for guards.

[Dejounte]

Obi Toppin

Shot Tendencies By The Numbers

Summary:
-For every 1 shot out of 5, it's a three point attempt
-He creates 1 three point shot on his own out of 16 three point attempts
-Efficient at 3 point making compared to his peers
-Ranks high on "Close 2 ast %", which means most of the points scored near the rim he was only able to generate with a playmaker
-Half of his close to the basket shots were dunks which attributed to his high FG%, will provide great vertical spacing to any team
-Was efficient with Far 2's, meaning he could be a threat anywhere on the court
-Poor FTA Rate numbers... what will he do if the shots don't fall or opposing players are being physical with him?

[Dejounte]

Jalen Smith

Shot Tendencies By The Numbers

Summary:
-40% likely to attempt a 3 than a 2 pointer on the court, meaning 40% of the time on offense he is on the perimeter (very simplified)
-Like Obi, he creates 1 three point shot on his own out of 16 three point attempts
-Efficient at 3 point making compared to his peers
-Provides vertical spacing as good as Onyeka Okongwu judging from the "% of dunks over close 2's attempted". Will provide decent vertical spacing for lobs. Obi towers over these two guys in this area, of course.
-Middle ground number for both "Close 2 Ast %" and "Far 2 Ast%", meaning he's not totally reliant on playmakers to create shots for him. Generates points on ISO's at a decent rate, better than most bigs.
-Middle ground number for FTA rate, showing signs he won't be a soft big.

[Dex]

Good stuff, Dejounte!

[Dejounte]

Precious Achiuwa

Shot Tendencies By The Numbers

Summary:
-For every 1 shot out of 10, it's a three point attempt
-Not a complete stand still shooter on the 3 point line as indicated by his "3 pt ast %"
-As everyone knows, he's not a great shooter from 3. Given the low volume, I'd hesitate to say he's hopeless as a shooter. There's room for improvement here.
-Had taken more unassisted shots near the rim than Obi... However, he shot REALLY poorly near the rim. He probably has poor layup fundamentals to be so bad here.
-As mentioned in the original post, he dunks way less than I thought he did. Pretty shocking but probably not a nail in the coffin type thing. He could very well have played with bad point guards.
-Precious shot a far 2 in every 1 out of 4 shot attempts. He shot quite a bit of them and.... he was BAD. Either really bad basketball IQ is the assumption here because the low figure is just inexcusable. The low "far 2 ast %" tells me no one was creating these shots for him, so it means he chucked it up on his own. It would be another thing if he didn't shoot that many, but he did. The only excuse I can think of here is that he really did play with bad point guards which forced him to create something out of nothing and try to shoot these far 2's.
-Middle of the ground FTA Rate, so at least he isn't soft.

[Dejounte]

Onyeka Okongwu

Shot Tendencies By The Numbers

Summary:

-Only attempted four threes for the year. In my opinion, you can't simply develop that after not shooting it at ALL. I think he'll be a stand still shooter at his best if he ever does develop a shot.
-Nearly half of his close 2's were unassisted. So he has some effective post moves.
-His other tendency was to shoot far 2's a third of the time. From watching him play, I think these are more like long range floaters than actual jumpers... but I could be wrong.
-FTA rate is decent. Not a player who's afraid to get physical. Might have drawn fouls due to his quickness.
-All in all, not too much to extrapolate here. Onyeka is your typical old school big on offense. On defense (which is not covered here), he's quicker than your old school big.

[Ed Helicopter Jones]

Interesting stuff!

[Phenomanul]

Thanks for the analysis...